1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 19th to 23rd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9866.67 yuan/ton. This week, cyclohexanone prices tended to stabilize, with a decrease of 233.33 yuan or 2.31% compared to early August. The raw material pure benzene oscillates and runs, with stable cost support. Downstream demand is generally average, and we tend to follow up on demand. Some companies have temporarily reduced their factory low price offers due to not shipping, resulting in a decrease in market low prices.

Cost aspect:

Raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has fluctuated narrowly and risen, and currently geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. Downstream customers enter the market to replenish goods at low prices. As of August 23rd, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8511.33 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current operating load is over 70%. The main production enterprises have limited product supply. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 72.5%, which has decreased compared to last week, with a weekly output of 110000 tons.

On the demand side, the cyclohexanone plant is mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the most important downstream of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has fluctuated and risen, with upstream pure benzene prices rebounding. The cost side has stopped falling, which supports downstream confidence. Downstream purchases are made on demand.

3、 Future forecast

The strong consolidation of the raw material pure benzene market is supported by downstream demand procurement of cyclohexanone. Analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly experience volatile operations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 22, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% from last week.

Recently, mainstream formic acid companies have carried out equipment maintenance, resulting in a reduction in on-site supply sources.

But downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and formic acid prices have not increased due to reduced supply.

On the cost side, the upstream methanol price of formic acid fluctuated upwards, supporting manufacturers to maintain high quotes, and some downstream markets have recovered. Some regional market quotes have been raised, but the overall market demand has not fully recovered, and industry players have shown a clear wait-and-see attitude.

The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market is supported by multiple positive factors, but the negative impact of procurement is dragging down price increases, and it is expected that the formic acid market will fluctuate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 12th to 16th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 17233 yuan/ton to 17316 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.48% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 0.95%. The domestic aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase during the week, as the supply of MDI decreased due to maintenance by domestic and foreign enterprises, leading to upstream price increases and a slight push up.

On the supply side, Huntsman’s 470000 tons/year MDI production plant located in Rosenburg, the Netherlands, announced on August 5th local time that it was affected by the incident and was operating at low negative load. It resumed normal operation on the 13th. The 1.1 million ton MDI units of Yantai Wanhua and 80000 ton MDI units of Dongcao Rui’an in China are currently under maintenance.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8534 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market has risen but fallen, with prices decreasing. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10125 yuan/ton. The overall cost of aggregated MDI has not changed significantly.

On the demand side, the downstream market is slowly following up and has been in a stalemate recently. The market atmosphere is relatively quiet, with many inquiries and limited actual transactions. Recently, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has been slow to follow up, and the overall market has been weak. Short term aggregated MDI demand is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: In the future, factories with maintenance plans and reduced supply expectations may boost the MDI market. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market experienced a slight rebound today (August 13th), with the average spot price of PTA in East China at 5610 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day. A mainstream PTA factory has announced a maintenance plan for its facilities, and in addition, a 2.2 million ton PTA plant in East China is scheduled to shut down unexpectedly. Coupled with strong fluctuations in international crude oil prices, this has strengthened cost support and boosted the PTA market. Specifically, let’s take a look:

Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 4.7 million tons are scheduled for maintenance in the Northeast region, with one set of 2.5 million tons PTA plant scheduled for maintenance on August 17th; A 2.2 million ton PTA plant in East China was unexpectedly shut down on August 12th, while another 1.2 million ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in September. The planned maintenance and short shutdown of the equipment will have a certain positive impact on the PTA market. At present, the operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 83%, and the supply of PTA has decreased in the short term.

Meanwhile, on August 12th, international crude oil futures rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $80.06 per barrel, an increase of $3.22 or 4.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.30 per barrel, an increase of $2.64 or 3.3%. The geopolitical situation remains tense, with international crude oil experiencing strong fluctuations, which still provides support for PTA costs.

Downstream polyester production has slightly rebounded, but it is still at a low level. In addition, there are rumors in the market that polyester factories may increase production cuts. Since August, with continuous high temperatures and off peak electricity policies, most terminal textile enterprises have maintained low operating rates. Currently, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 60%. The weak demand for domestic and foreign textile products remains, and the progress of autumn and winter orders is slow, which is not as expected. As a result, the operating rate will further decline. If there is no positive stimulus in the short term, the overall demand for PTA will remain weak.

Business analysts believe that the upstream cost side still provides support for PTA costs, but downstream polyester procurement is sluggish, and the willingness to stock up on raw materials is not high. It is expected that PTA prices will not have enough momentum to continue rising.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 805 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.05%. On August 11th, the chemical index was 868 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 750-840 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 840-940 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2350-2550 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. At present, there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and coupled with the weakened export market, the operating mentality of industry players has weakened, so they are more cautious and cautious.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 32nd week of 2024 (8.5-8.9), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.13%), PVC (-0.44%), and caustic soda flakes (-0.10%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.28%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda will remain stable. In the early stage of the Shandong market, there are plans to postpone the construction of new facilities in Zibo. It is expected that the supply of caustic soda will be stable, and downstream customers will be cautious and wait. The overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain a stable operation of caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in July 2024. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic toluene market price fell from 7540 yuan/ton to 7390 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.99% during the period and a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton.

In the first half of the month, the toluene market saw a slight increase, mainly driven by the good performance of gasoline blending. During this period, the trend of cost oil prices fluctuated slightly, but downstream gasoline blending enterprises actively entered the market, with good transaction performance and low inventory levels in the factory. The export performance is also good, with a significant decline in incoming goods from the East China region and tight port supply. Driven by favorable supply and demand, the market atmosphere has improved, and the toluene market has slightly risen.

Late of the month: The overall toluene market is weak, with market prices fluctuating downwards. Supply remains tight this week, and refinery inventories are generally running at a low level. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing intention is low, and the intention to receive goods is insufficient, which has a certain drag on market sentiment. The focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined during the week, and downstream companies maintained their demand for replenishment, lacking support from the demand side. The toluene market cautiously retreated, and the overall market atmosphere was weak

On the cost side: In July 2024, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall wide decline. As of July 29, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.81 per barrel, a monthly decline of 6.85%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.05 per barrel, a monthly decrease of 6.83%. The crude oil analyst of Shengyi Society believes that on the one hand, the easing of the geopolitical situation is bearish on the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. Looking at the future: Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, OPEC+’s production reduction stance is firm, and the traditional peak season in the United States still holds positive news. Under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered multiple times during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude of each underground adjustment. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7450-7500 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7400 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On July 31st, Sinopec announced the settlement price for xylene in July 2024, which was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the settlement price in June 2024 and a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the listing price in July. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of July 30th, the closing price of CFR China was $993/ton, which was $1044/ton at the beginning of the month and a cumulative decrease of $51/ton.

During this cycle, the price of toluene in Asia’s foreign markets fluctuated, with the FOB South Korean closing price of 851-853 US dollars/ton as of July 30th, and an increase of 7 US dollars/ton during the cycle; The closing price of CFR China in August is 884-886 US dollars per ton, with a decrease of 46 US dollars per ton during the period.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, and the support on the cost side is weak. The maintenance of the toluene unit in terms of supply is gradually coming to an end, and the market expects that supply will resume in the future. In terms of demand, as August approaches, the market expects inventory demand to gradually recover with the “Golden September and Silver October” and future holidays. The toluene market will also enter a period of active trading, which still provides some support for market sentiment. Overall, the toluene market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of equipment resumption on market supply.