I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, this week’s domestic cobalt market shocks fell, and overall cobalt prices were unable to rebound. As of June 23, the cobalt price was 238166.67 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from 240500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Compared with the previous period, the price of cobalt fell slightly in June, the decline slowed down, and the cobalt market remained basically stable.

II. Declining International Cobalt Price

International market MB quotation fell this week, the global market of cobalt was cold, the international price of cobalt rose powerlessly, and the decline of international cobalt price dragged down the domestic market of cobalt.

The cobalt price in LME market remained stable this week. The international cobalt market had no upward momentum. The global cobalt market was short. The domestic market was dragged down by the international market.

III. Cobalt Index

On June 24, the Cobalt Commodity Index was 85.19, down 0.48 points from yesterday, down 64.34% from the cyclical peak of 238.91 points (2018-04-15), and up 21.98% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date). From the cobalt price index, we can see that the cobalt price has fallen by more than 60% compared with the historical high, and the cobalt price is infinitely close to the low point of cobalt price in the cycle. At present, the global supply of cobalt is abundant, which leads to a slow rebound of cobalt price. However, with the cobalt price approaching the cyclical low of cobalt price, the falling space of cobalt price is limited, and the future cobalt price may increase.

Fourth, the outlook for the future market:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, believes that the decline in international cobalt prices has dragged down the rebound of domestic cobalt prices, and that the recent rise in domestic cobalt prices is not motivated enough. However, as can be seen from the Cobalt Commodity Index, there is limited space for cobalt to fall, and future market gains may increase. Overall, the cobalt market is still in a state of oversupply at the present stage. The profit margin of cobalt market is greater than the profit margin. It is difficult for cobalt price to rise in the near future. With the gradual warming of cobalt Market demand, the driving force of cobalt price rise is gradually rising. It is expected that cobalt price shocks will remain stable in the short term.

On June 23, the fluorite commodity index was 107.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.37% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 119.24% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have maintained a high trend, the average domestic fluorite price is 3075 yuan/ton as of 24 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 24th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite remained high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 24 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 190 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the price monitoring of business associations: as of June 21, the market of melamine has been stable. At present, the mainstream price of domestic melamine is 5300-7200 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

Products: The domestic market for melamine has been stable this week. Downstream demand is sluggish, and the market lacks strong positive factors to support it.

Industry chain: The domestic market of liquid ammonia in the upstream is tidied up slightly, the market performance is weak, the market turnover is still acceptable, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, normal delivery.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the short-term domestic melamine market may be dominated by weak consolidation and operation. Some distributors are tentative hoarding, which is expected to drive up the market price of melamine, but the price increase still needs to pay close attention to the changes in the start-up rate of production enterprises.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of June 18, the latest domestic price of cyclohexanone was 8066 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was slightly up.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market prices rose slightly, chemical fiber market continued to be weak, Honda Cyclohexanone parking overhaul, solvent market buying atmosphere is still acceptable, other factories quoted higher, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is delivered in 7900-8000 cash, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in 8200-8300 cash, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in 8500-8700 cash.

Industry chain: pure benzene: the center of gravity of pure benzene in East China has dropped rationally. Among them, spot negotiation is 4720-4770 yuan/ton, June negotiation is 4750-4790 yuan/ton, July negotiation is 4780-4830 yuan/ton. At present, the on-site negotiation is over 4700 yuan per ton, but due to the narrowing of the price gap between the internal and external discs, there is resistance to the high-end rally. Caprolactam: The liquid spot market of caprolactam is running smoothly, the factory has limited production and guaranteed price, the decline of caprolactam has slowed down, and downstream polymerization just needs to be purchased. The spot price of caprolactam liquid is about 1,1700 yuan/ton, which is accepted and delivered; the solid market is consolidated, and the trader delivers with him. The price of common material is 12,500 yuan/ton, which is remitted to us now.

3. Future Market Forecast

There is no plan for short-term cyclohexanone spot delivery, but manufacturers have spot pressure. Weiming Petrochemical plans to put into operation 150,000 tons of phenol-based cyclohexanone unit in July and Huafeng plans to put into operation 200,000 tons of cyclohexanone unit in July. It is expected that the spot pressure will continue to increase next week. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is slightly upward adjustment, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, the start-up load of caprolactam market is obviously reduced, the demand for cyclohexanone is less, and the support of chemical fiber market is weak. Generally speaking, the supply of cyclohexanone may exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the recent market consolidation of cyclohexanone.

Price Trend

According to business association monitoring data, this week the silicone market is stable at low prices. At present, the market quotation of DMC is almost bottoming out. The lowest quotation is around 16,000 yuan/ton, and the trader’s quotation is around 18,000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the domestic silicone market as a whole shows a weak operation. This week, the market DMC quotation fell again – 1.80% compared with last week. In terms of start-up, at present, there are some single factories parking maintenance, many single factories adjust the start-up situation, after the adjustment of start-up in about 67 floors.

Industry chain: Upstream product metal silicon prices rose slightly at the end of May, and maintained a weak and stable operation in mid-June, with low start-up rate and rising market sentiment.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the start-up rate of several monomer devices began to decline, and the adjustment of the start-up rate should have an impact on the price of silicone DMC, followed by price stabilization or a slight increase.

Market Review

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 3150 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3180 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.95% in the week.

quotations analysis

Products: This week, due to the overall supply of dichloromethane market is still tight, but the downstream market demand is still acceptable, mostly just in demand, dichloromethane enterprises slightly increased quotations, smooth shipment. At present, the quotation of bulk water remittance in Shandong is around 3180 yuan/ton, 3400-3700 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 3550 yuan/ton in Jiangxi. In terms of start-up, at present, 50% of Jinling chemical plant is in operation; Jinmao Dongying stops and overhauls until the end of June; 60% of Shanxi chemical plant is in operation; Jiangsu science and culture plant is in normal operation; Jiangxi science and culture plant is in normal operation, etc.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the natural gas market is weak, the trading atmosphere is low, the average price at the beginning of the week is 3466 yuan/ton, the average price at the end of the week is 3426 yuan/ton, the decline rate is 1.15%. The supply of liquid chlorine market is sufficient, but the downstream market demand is weak, the price of liquid chlorine has fallen sharply, and the enterprises overreport 1-100 yuan/ton. The domestic R410a market has been shaken and adjusted. The downstream market of refrigerants has just been in demand. The trading atmosphere of the market is still acceptable, and the demand of the pharmaceutical and film industries is still good.

Future Market Forecast

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current supply-side gap in the dichloromethane market is difficult to fill in a short period of time. The downstream market just needs to be stable, which is good for dichloromethane price support, and anticipates that the dichloromethane market will soar in the near future.

Price data:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic bromine market weakened slightly this week, and the industry started to work normally as a whole. At the beginning of the week, the average bromine price was maintained at about 35,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average bromine price was about 34,928 yuan/ton. Within the week, it was slightly reduced by 0.2%, which was 26.48% higher than the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic bromine market began to weaken slightly after a long period of high operation. Some enterprises lowered their quotation by 200-500 yuan/ton. The industry started normally, the enterprise shipped smoothly, the overall demand of the downstream market was still acceptable, and the situation of oversupply gradually emerged. For some start-up enterprises, such as Dongyue Fine Chemical Company, Shandong Haihua Company, Shandong Haiwang Chemical Company, Tianjin Changlu Haijing Company, etc. At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises is between 3450-35000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is based on enterprise negotiation.

Industry Chain: This week, the upstream industry of bromine has risen and fallen differently: the sulfur market rose 2.44% in the week, and the current quotation is about 980 yuan/ton; the caustic soda market has been running steadily in the week, and the current quotation is about 695 yuan/ton; the soda market has fallen sharply by 4.31% in the week, and the current quotation is about 1850 yuan/ton; the sulfuric acid price has increased slightly by 2.47% in the week, and the current quotation is about 207 yuan/ton. At present, the demand of bromine downstream flame retardant industry is stable, which is good for bromine price support, and the performance of pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates is stable, just in need of purchase.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bromine industry analysts believe that bromine market enterprises in China are generally normal production, smooth shipment, abundant spot supply, stable downstream user demand, bromine prices are still at a high level, and yesterday the situation of oversupply gradually emerged, bromine prices are expected to decline weakly in the near future.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

According to the monitoring of business associations, domestic nitric acid prices rose this week, averaging 1 743 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1 760 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.96%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the price of nitric acid in domestic market has increased slightly in some areas. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1,750 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1850 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan per ton. Shandong manufacturer quoted 1750 yuan/ton. Nitric acid supply is not much, the price has increased slightly, and the nitric acid goods are in good condition.

Industry chain: the upstream raw material of nitric acid, liquid ammonia Market in China is stabilizing, the market turnover is still acceptable, most manufacturers’quotations are stable, the northern region manufacturers’ quotations are maintained in the range of 3250-3700 yuan/ton, and the Northwest region’s quotations are in the range of 3000-3200 yuan/ton. Downstream aniline, May 27, June 5, Shandong aniline market price 5,600 yuan / ton, Nanjing aniline market price 5,950 yuan / ton, price stability, and inventory pressure.

3. Future Market Forecast

In summary, Nitric acid analysts believe that the nitric acid market will be strong in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of June 4, the latest price of domestic cyclohexanone was 8100 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was weak and stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market is weak, the downstream chemical fiber market is weak, the demand for cyclohexanone is less, the speed of manufacturers and markets is slowing down, the pressure of manufacturers’shipment is on the high side, the quotation has been lowered, the bullish sentiment on the future market is strong, and the actual single transaction is limited. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is sent in cash at 8100-8300, the mainstream offer in East China market is sent in cash at 8400-8600, and the mainstream offer in South China market is sent in cash at 8800-8900.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: Pure Benzene market lacks buying support, the focus of gravity has fallen back in the morning, of which spot is now 4450-4550 yuan/ton, and in June, the negotiations are in the range of 4500-4600 yuan/ton. At present, the decline of port inventory is relatively slow, the supply in the yard is still abundant, and the downstream maintains on-demand procurement. Caprolactam: The spot market confidence of caprolactam liquids is insufficient. The downstream polymerization plant keeps starting at a low level. The demand for caprolactam is still weak and the atmosphere in the field is not good. The liquid spot price of caprolactam is 11800-12100 yuan/ton, which is accepted and delivered; the factory price in the north is around 11500 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory now, the solid market is consolidated, the trader delivers with him, and the price of common material is 12500 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory now.

3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term cyclohexanone plant silver May 22 parking overhaul, planned to start in early June, expected next week spot export volume will increase slightly, in addition to the current manufacturers still have spot inventory pressure. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, there is no plan to restart Nanjing Dongfang in June. Yongrong cyclohexanone plant starts normally and can basically meet the demand for caprolactam. In the short term, Shenyuan’s purchase of cyclohexanone is unlikely. Shandong Haili’s 200,000-ton caprolactam plant has maintenance plan in early June, while cyclohexanone is still unclear. Overall, however, the supply of cyclohexanone may exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect the short-term market for cyclohexanone to remain weak.

Price Trend

The price of ethylene oxide has been adjusted today. At present, the ex-factory price in East China is 7000 yuan/ton, that in South China and North China is 7200 yuan/ton, that in Central China is 7150 yuan/ton, and that in Northeast China is 7400 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of Jiangsu Silbang and Lianhong Group has also been adjusted today.

II. Industrial chain:

The upstream ethylene market is gradually abundant, and the price of downstream ethylene glycol has been declining slightly in recent days. According to the current price, the loss of ethylene oxide is relatively large. The market mentality of polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer market is not good because of the price of ethylene oxide. It is cautious to trade and mainly depends on just demand. It is reported that Yangzi Petrochemical has increased its capacity by 400 tons, and the supply in East China is still excessive. At present, the supply and demand situation has not been improved well. Prices continue to fall, forcing private enterprises to further reduce their load. Some downstream enterprises have been unable to take goods. Parking may not be ruled out under price pressure. Northeast China is affected by Liaohua’s upcoming overhaul. Market resources are tightened, and the decline is less than that in East China.

3. Industry:

On May 30, the chemical index was 733, which maintained the overall stability. Overall, the chemical industry index has been at a low level and has not improved significantly.

Forecast:

The overall market is weak, the market bearish atmosphere is strong, follow-up needs to pay close attention to the latest factory news.

Commodity Index: On May 31, the commodity price index (BPI) was 829 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 18.65% from the cyclical peak of 1019 points (2012-04-10), and up 25.61% from the lowest point of 660 points on February 03, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Latest price (May 31): Polyacrylamide (cationic) offer 16900 yuan/ton.

Main points of analysis: On May 31, the market price of domestic polyacrylamide was relatively stable. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is 16700-18 000 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10 000-12 000 yuan/ton; overall, the quotation of anionic PAM is basically stable, and the range of cationic PAM is about 150 yuan if there is any change./ Within the range of tons.

Industry chain: The price of upstream products of polyacrylamide has not changed much in recent years; the demand of downstream products of polyacrylamide has also not changed greatly; the overall market of polyacrylamide has remained stable in recent years.

Future market forecast: In the short term, if there is no big fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the demand in the downstream is relatively stable, and the market price of domestic polyacrylamide is basically stable.