According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose slightly in May. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2330 yuan / ton, 1.3% higher than 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 18.47% year on year.

 

In May, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose slightly, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable, and the supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future. Some manufacturers reported that the inquiry increased, and the market price on the site rose slightly. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ shipment is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production a lot, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rises slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2200 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2700 yuan / ton.

 

In May, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China was slightly lower, and the average price of nitric acid at the end of the month was 1433.33 yuan / ton, down 2.27%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1400 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1350 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1400 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1580 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is stable, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is sufficient, and the situation of goods in the field is general. In May, the price of nitric acid in the market fell slightly, and the price of raw material nitric acid fell, which is the negative impact of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price increase of ammonium nitrate is limited.

 

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In May, the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upper reaches continued the market of last month and continued to fluctuate downward. According to the monitoring of the business association, since May, for example, in Shandong Province, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped by 5%. The continuous downward trend of the price of liquid ammonia is mainly due to the result of the game between high inventory and low demand. Under the pressure of the manufacturers, the factory price has been lowered repeatedly, and the market offers have been lower. The range is in the range of 200-400 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the market offer is in the range of 2500-2700 yuan / ton. Most of the liquid ammonia is purchased on demand. At present, the supply and demand of the market is in the balance stage, and the market price of liquid ammonia is low. Due to the fall of the upstream market price of liquid ammonia, the market price of ammonium nitrate is slightly higher.

 

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. In addition, the market price of raw material liquid ammonia has fallen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has lost certain cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of business association think that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline in Shandong fell this week, while the price in other regions remained stable. On May 22, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, while that in East China was 4600-4820 yuan / ton, down 3.6% from last week.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

Raw materials: this week’s price of pure benzene continued to shock consolidation. In the week, Sinopec experienced two times of increase in the price of pure benzene, with a total increase of 250 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton, reducing the price difference with the local refining. Sinopec’s increase in the price of pure benzene has played a positive role in supporting the domestic price of pure benzene. But this week’s pure benzene negotiation is weak, the spot price of pure benzene is lower, and the price in the far month is higher. This week, pure benzene port inventory went up, tank capacity was tight. On May 17, the listing price of pure benzene was 3100-3600 yuan / ton (average 3310 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (May 24), the listing price of pure benzene was 3300-3750 yuan / ton (average 3460 yuan / ton), up 4.53% from last week.

 

The price of nitric acid is stable this week, and the production price in East China is 1433.33 yuan / ton.

 

Gamma PGA

Product: the price of aniline Market was stable in the early stage of this week. On Thursday, the price of Jinling aniline was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, while that of Shandong aniline Market was down. The downstream demand is not high, and the enterprise’s shipment is deadlocked.

 

3、 Future expectation

 

Raw materials: the shift of crude oil center of gravity and the profit level of downstream products of pure benzene are acceptable, which are favorable for the existence of support; however, the high inventory of the port brings negative effects. It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

 

The downstream demand recovered slowly, and aniline is expected to maintain weak stability in the short term.

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1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

 

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1433 yuan / ton, with stable quotation.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is weak, the quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1250-1300 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1580 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the quotation of Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1300-1350 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the quotation of Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1700 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the demand of nitric acid market is light and stable.

 

Industry chain: upstream liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia weak downward this week; downstream aniline, aniline price drop this week; TDI slightly lower this week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Nitric acid analysts predict that negative pressure, nitric acid price weak run.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 22, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4800.00 yuan / ton, and the recent domestic DMF operation was weak.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Products: Recently, domestic DMF is in weak operation. Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 4450 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu daily and monthly 4550 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 5400 yuan / ton. The shutdown of Jiangshan plant in Zhejiang Province has some favorable effects on the DMF market. The firm price intention of the factory is obvious, the downstream demand is general. There is a certain pressure on the high level of DMF inventory, and the factory actively delivers goods, but the transaction atmosphere is general.

 

Industry chain: the upstream methanol manufacturers’ quotation is stable based on the execution of contract orders, and the domestic methanol market is mainly fluctuating in a short period of time. At present, the mainstream quotation of methanol is 1630-1690 yuan / ton.

 

Industry: on May 21, the chemical industry index was 643, up 1 point from yesterday, down 36.71% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 7.53% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

3、 Future forecast

 

DMF analysts believe that the DMF market is expected to be weak in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers across the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on May 18 was 5830 yuan / ton, 0.82% higher than the previous day, and 17.3% lower than the same period last year. On May 18, the PVC commodity index was 73.88, up 0.61 points from yesterday, down 26.12% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 26.79% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Products: PVC futures rose on the 18th, driving the spot market to continue to soar, but the trend has slowed down compared with the previous gains. Late last week, PVC futures fell, some enterprises in the spot market cautiously recalled, in addition to the high price of PVC in the early stage, and limited terminal receiving capacity, so the momentum of PVC market continued to rise sharply was insufficient, and most enterprises kept a stable wait-and-see, digesting the early gains. At present, the domestic terminal demand recovers and the real estate industry ushers in the peak season. The operation rate of PVC pipe enterprises has been significantly improved and the demand has increased. Other downstream markets are still in the process of slowly improving, especially the export market is recovering slowly with few orders. As a whole, the demand side focuses on the domestic market. The domestic PVC inventory has decreased, the supply of goods in South China is tight, there is a phenomenon of looting, the inventory in other regions is still high, the terminal multi-dimensional system just needs, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. At present, it is still in the period of maintenance of production enterprises, and the sales pressure of manufacturers is not great. In addition, the recent increase of calcium carbide at the raw material end, PVC enterprises’ strong price sentiment is high, and the market is getting better. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 18, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5500-5950 yuan / ton.

 

Futures: on 18th, pvcv2009 contract concussed higher, closing at 5885 yuan / ton, which was + 100 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume was 163501, – 18710; positions were 218482, + 3934, basis – 5 yuan, + 65 yuan; 9-1 price difference was 50 yuan, + 0 yuan.

 

Industry chain: European and American stock markets fell recently, and there are still many challenges in the oil market in the later period, and the support for ethylene is not clear, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range consolidation in the future. Last week, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2500 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2350 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s quotation for calcium carbide this week was 2330 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend It is 2450 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise slightly in late May.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity price in rubber and plastic plate, the top three commodities are PC (4.88%), PVC (1.36%) and PA6 (1.19%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were PP (fiber) (- 4.29%), PP (drawing) (- 3.67%) and HDPE (- 2.76%). This week’s average was – 0.45%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the macro-economy has recovered, the terminal demand has gradually recovered, PVC futures trading is active, and many positive factors such as the increase of raw material end have boosted, and PVC market trend is expected to be strong in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.21% from 1620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1623.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 18.22% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 75.04 on May 15.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1630 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1640 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

 

Market demand: the agricultural demand is low, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation is weak; the industrial demand is general, and the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is cautious, and most of them are used as they are purchased. Supply side: at present, due to the small amount of goods delivered from other provinces in Shandong Province, the new orders of enterprises in Shandong Province have improved, and the willingness of enterprises to hold up prices has increased. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

 

International aspect: on May 8, Indian bidding results announced that 14 enterprises participated in the bidding, with a total bidding volume of 2.393 million tons, and the east coast price of 231.90 USD / ton CFR. The price converted to the port is about 1530 yuan / ton, so the possibility of domestic supply is low.

 

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Industry chain: the upstream urea products in this week seem to have declined as a whole: the price of natural gas has declined, with the quotation dropping from 2863.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.96%, down 22.39% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia in this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 3116.67 yuan / ton, down 9.75% compared with the same period of last year. In general, the urea cost support in this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of urea.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In late May, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly up slightly. Urea analysts of business association believe that at present, agricultural demand is weak, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the weak and stable operation of domestic soda ash this week is mainly. The average domestic market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China is about 1363.33 yuan / ton. On April 25, the light soda ash commodity index was 75.04, flat with yesterday, down 36.33% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.83% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: this week, domestic soda price is mainly weak and stable. In East China, the market of soda ash is stable, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1380 yuan / ton, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1400 yuan / ton, the market transaction is general, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The consolidation market of soda ash in Central China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1250-1350 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The market price of soda ash consolidation in North China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The average operating rate of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 80%.

 

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In terms of demand: the domestic soda ash market is in overall consolidation operation, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues. The total information of the industry is still more than 1.6 million. The overall market atmosphere of soda ash is not good, and the downstream market transaction follow-up is weak. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising and falling. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (5.08%), PVC (4.32%), calcium carbide (0.72%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 4.66%), caustic soda (- 3.59%). This week’s average was 0.37%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is flat and the transaction is general, and the overall pressure on enterprise inventory is still large. Although some manufacturers plan to shut down for maintenance in May, due to the high inventory and consumption process of the industry as a whole, it is comprehensively expected that the consolidation and operation of soda ash will be dominated in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose steadily in the first ten days of May, with the first ten days price of 5936 yuan / ton, and the last ten days price of 6264 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.51%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Product: last month, Shandong propylene price soared and plummeted, and then remained stable again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously every day. On the 10th, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 6200-6250 yuan / ton. Now propylene inventory pressure is not big, but foreign propylene may increase.

 

 

Industry chain: affected by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week. Now, the crude oil still rose, but the trend slowed down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose significantly again, which has a certain positive impact on the future market of propylene.

 

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Under the influence of public health events, the modified special material in PP was melt blown cloth material, and the price rose sharply in the early stage. At present, PP futures have returned to rationality. In the first ten days, PP spot has stepped up, with a 10 day increase of 3.30%, which has little impact on propylene.

 

In the first ten days, acrylic acid market declined, falling 5.53% in ten days, slightly negative impact on propylene.

 

In the first ten days, propylene oxide was up in shock, up 4.45% in ten days, which had a little positive impact on propylene.

 

In the first ten days, epichlorohydrin increased slightly after the decline, with a ten day drop of 0.66% and a ten day amplitude of 1.35%, which had little effect on propylene.

 

In the first ten days, the domestic price of n-butanol continued to rise, with an increase of 4.03% in ten days, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

 

In the first ten days, octanol market also fluctuated upward, up 4.72% in ten days, which also had a small positive impact on propylene.

 

Affected by the epidemic situation, the isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, has finally stopped rising and falling since the end of last month. After falling in the first ten days of this month, the market has remained stable, falling by 7.86% in ten days and 8.93% in ten days, which may have a negative impact on propylene.

 

Phenol Market in Shandong Province rose sharply in the first ten days, up 11.45% in ten days, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

 

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The acetone market in Shandong also rose sharply in the first ten days, with an increase of 9.47%, which also had a significant positive impact on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, on the whole, the international crude oil market has a positive support, and the price has been rising for many times, which has a certain supporting effect on propylene. While the downstream market is mostly rational, but the operating rate slightly increased, isopropanol market continued to decline, phenol and acetone market rose significantly. The current inventory pressure is not big, but external propylene may increase, and it is expected that the price of propylene will increase slightly in recent days.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 9, the average price of domestic rubber grade and high-quality white carbon black is 4566.67 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of white carbon black is relatively stable, and the current mainstream quotation range is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

 

market analysis

 

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Products: domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black maintains stable operation, downstream just need to purchase, buy as needed, according to the actual order quantity, the merchants actively give orders and actively make profits, with the relief of public events, the shipment is smooth, the inventory is general, and the turnover is limited. At present, Shandong Lihua new materials Co., Ltd. offers 4200 / T rubber grade superior products, Shandong Shouguang Changtai micro nano factory rubber The price of rubber grade superior products is 5000 yuan / ton, and that of rubber grade superior products of Boai Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd. is 4500 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: upstream hydrochloric acid, domestic mainstream hydrochloric acid factory price is temporarily stable, Dezhou Maihua quotation is 160 yuan / ton, Jinan Yuanfei quotation is 200 yuan / ton, Shanxi Wenshui quotation is 230 yuan / ton, Dezhou Shihua quotation is 250 yuan / ton, Taiyuan kunsheng quotation is 420 yuan / ton.

 

Industry: on May 8, the chemical industry index was 629, up 3 points from yesterday, down 38.09% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 5.18% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

Future forecast

 

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, the domestic rubber grade and superior white carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of silica all over the country and analyzed by the business silica analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

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According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose in China. As of May 7, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic anhydride was 4750 yuan / ton. The price of phthalic anhydride in China rose slightly, the demand of plasticizer industry was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride rebounded.

 

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In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has increased slightly, the demand of phthalic anhydride market is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is average. However, the rise of crude oil price has boosted domestic petrochemical products, and the price of phthalic anhydride market has rebounded. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the market price of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is general, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is high. As of July 7, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China rose, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China was 4800-5100 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method sources was 4400-4600 yuan / ton. The main flow of the quotation in the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4700-5000 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market was still there. The market price of phthalic anhydride was general, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly.

 

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 4000 yuan / ton. The import phthalic acid Market in port area is stable and stable temporarily. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is general and the external price of phthalic anhydride is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Affected by the fluctuation of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, the price increase of phthalic anhydride market is limited.

 

The downstream DOP market price is higher, the price of isooctanol is warmer and higher, the cost of DOP raw materials is higher, DOP enterprises operate at low load, and DOP manufacturers stock sales. The price of DOP increased, the equipment of PVC enterprises started to work normally, and the enthusiasm of customers for purchasing was temporarily stable. The price of plasticizer is rising. The market price of DOP is about 6500-6700 yuan / ton. The market price of plasticizer is generally active, high-speed charges are increased, and logistics and transportation costs are increased. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period, supported by favorable downstream prices.

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Aluminum market trend in April

 

According to the data of business agency, as of April 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12813.33 yuan / ton, up 11.16% from 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

 

The first quarter surplus hit a slump

 

According to the data of business agency, as of March 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12793.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20.98% compared with 14553.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and 11230 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of the year (March 23), a decrease of 22.84%.

 

After the year, aluminum price plummeted, once falling below the industry average cost price. At present, the weighted cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is about 11800-12000 yuan / ton. (Rough weighted estimation, 1.93 tons of alumina, 0.48 tons of anode carbon block, 0.02 tons of aluminum fluoride, 0.01 tons of cryolite and 13500 degrees of power consumption per ton of aluminum)

 

Reasons for the collapse of Fundamentals:

 

1. Oversupply of global raw aluminum market from January to February

 

According to the monthly report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday (April 22), there is a supply surplus of 684000 tons in the global primary aluminum market from January to February 2020, and 492000 tons in 2019.

 

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According to the data from January to February 2020, the global primary aluminum production increased by 8% over the same period of last year. Although the global demand for raw aluminum from January to February 2020 is 10.4 million tons, an increase of 411000 tons compared with the same period in 2019.

 

2. Imbalance of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply and demand in the first quarter

 

From January to March 2020, China’s total production of electrolytic aluminum is 8.976 million tons, an increase of 4% year on year; the consumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the same period is 7.55 million tons, a decrease of 9% year on year.

 

In March, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 3.036 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year on year; among them, the output of metallurgical grade alumina was 5.434 million tons, and the daily average output of metallurgical grade alumina was 175300 tons, a decrease of 1.75% year on year.

 

3. Export volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased sharply in the first quarter

 

From January to March 2020, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 1.187 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. However, the export of raw alumina increased sharply. It is reported that the total export of alumina in the first quarter was 690000 tons, an increase of 433% year on year.

 

Production reduction, consumption rebound aluminum price out of the trough in April

 

In late March, the number of domestic centralized production reduction and maintenance enterprises began to increase, and some manufacturers avoided large losses through production reduction, shutdown and maintenance; in April, the price of electrolytic aluminum began to rebound, on the one hand, some new domestic production capacity was willing to reduce, and the time was slightly delayed; on the other hand, the impact of foreign epidemic was large, and some foreign aluminum enterprises were expected to strengthen production reduction.

 

The low price of aluminum ingots also ushered in a small peak of market consumption, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and rods fell. As of April 23, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 82000 tons to 1354000 tons compared with last Monday; the social inventory of 6063 aluminum ingots in Foshan, Wuxi, Nanchang, Changzhou and Huzhou decreased by 22500 tons compared with last week.

 

Future forecast

 

EDTA

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high. Although the price of raw materials in the industrial chain moves down synchronously, the cost support is still strong. In the second quarter, the domestic demand is expected to turn warm. In the later period, it is expected that the operation will be mainly stable and strong. It is expected that the operation will fluctuate in the range of 12500-13500 in May.

 

Recent influencing factors of aluminum price:

 
1. Policy information

 

Yunnan collection and storage expectation & real estate completion cycle and wire and cable industry are supported by policies.

 

2. Domestic downstream

 

Consumption of domestic automobile and home appliance industry.

 

3. Aluminum export

 

Wait and see the development of epidemic situation abroad.

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