1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the overall trend of mixed xylene fell this month, the price rebounded slightly in the middle of the month, and the decline widened in the last ten days. The price of mixed xylene was 8180 yuan/ton on November 1 and 7540 yuan/ton on November 28, down 7.82% from the beginning of the month and up 24.63% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the tight supply of mixed xylene in the early stage, the price is relatively high compared with toluene. However, under the background of poor overall downstream demand and weak market negotiation, crude oil fell broadly in the month and the cost lost its support, leading to a short mentality of the industry. The price of mixed xylene fell and the decline widened at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by the epidemic, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market fell by more than 10% this month. On November 28, the price of mixed xylene imported by South Korea was 837 dollars/ton, down 148 dollars/ton month on month, or 15.02%.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 17.81% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, the price of OX in East China fell broadly this month, at 9300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 8.6% lower than the beginning of the month and 23.19% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the overall gasoline price in Shandong Province fluctuated positively in the first half of this month, and began to fall next month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8159 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7919 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the beginning of the month and 1.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The fundamentals of the mixed xylene market are not good, the short-term trend of crude oil is weak, and the demand is weak. Under the pressure of a negative atmosphere, it is expected that there is still a possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.

In November, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell first and then rose. The price of calcium carbide fell from 3883.33 yuan/ton on November 1 to 3750.00 yuan/ton on November 29, a decrease of 3.43%. The price at the end of the month fell by 28.34% year-on-year.

On November 28, the carbide commodity index was 98.25, up 1.31 points from yesterday, down 53.71% from the peak of 212.23 points (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 77.06% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the supply side, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell slightly this month.

From the weekly K column chart of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide fell slightly in November, with a maximum drop of 2.61% in a single week.

Cost end: the price of coke fell slightly

The overall price of carbon dioxide in the upstream of carbide fell slightly this month. In November, the average market price of domestic semi coke feedstock fell from 1751.67 yuan/ton on November 1 to 1715 yuan/ton on November 28, a decrease of 2.09%. The upstream carbon price fell slightly, and the carbide cost support weakened.

Demand side: PVC market price drops

The PVC market price in the downstream of calcium carbide fell sharply this month. The PVC market price in this month fell from 6021.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6002.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.31%, and the price at the end of the month fell 34.96% year-on-year. The ex factory price of 1,4 butanediol fell sharply this month, from 14550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9716.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 33.22%. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell sharply this month, and the downstream demand was insufficient.

In the future: in the first ten days of December, the carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has fallen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is insufficient. However, the market of 1,4 butanediol and PVC in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in mid to early December, mainly due to consolidation.

The market of ammonium chloride rose slightly in November. At the beginning of the month, the market demand for ammonium chloride was sluggish, and the price fell slightly; Weak and stable due to cost support in the month; Winter storage was started at the end of this month. In the atmosphere of rising prices of compound fertilizer, urea and other fertilizers, the factory prices of some ammonium chloride enterprises were raised, and the market quotation was rising. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the price of ammonium chloride was 995 yuan/ton, up 3.38% from 962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly low was 957 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand: in the middle and late November, the price of compound fertilizer rose, the commencement of construction increased (2.4% at the beginning of the month, 3% to 4% at the end of the month), and the purchase of raw materials increased; In addition, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in Northeast China started, and the orders of compound fertilizer/mixed fertilizer enterprises increased significantly, driving the prices of all kinds of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers up; The good demand side pushed the price of ammonium chloride up. Although the demand has increased, domestic soda production has continued 80% of the load, and the supply of ammonium chloride continues to be loose, suppressing the upward range of ammonium chloride.

In November, the price of raw material liquid ammonia rose significantly, and the cost support was stronger. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4590 yuan/ton, up 12.04% from 4096 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the supply of liquid ammonia was tightened, and in the middle of the month, there was too much temporary overhaul and maintenance of the unit, which led to the supply decline of different degrees in major production areas across the country.

Future forecast: Ammonium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the cost side has risen significantly, the demand side has increased slightly, and although the supply side is still loose, it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to rise tentatively in the later period.

Price trend

In late November, the domestic POM market finished sideways, and the overall price performance was very high. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM at the beginning of the month was 13800 yuan/ton, and on November 25, the average price was 13866.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.48%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market has been reorganized in a volatile manner recently, with a small fluctuation range and abundant on-site supply. However, the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the domestic methanol market is mainly weak in the short term.

In terms of supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level, and the current industry load has decreased compared with that before, more than 80%. The processing profit of the enterprise fluctuates in a narrow range, with a gross profit level of about 2300 yuan per ton, which is acceptable.

Demand: Although the load of POM industry decreased this week, the market supply turned to be abundant. The mentality of producers and traders has been supported by the rise in ex factory prices, but the demand has weakened recently, and there is much room for profit in the on-site shipment negotiations. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to prepare goods is average, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

The POM market was weak in late November. The load of domestic polymerization plants decreased by a narrow margin, and some spot logistics were not smooth due to the impact of public health events. On the whole, the supply was abundant. The demand side is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. It is estimated that the POM market may enter the weak consolidation market in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly this week. By the end of this week, spot copper had offered 66345 yuan/ton, down 1.97% from 67680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.79% year on year.

Copper weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past three months, the price has risen by 6 or fallen by 5, even by 1. Recently, the copper price has recovered slightly after the early rise.

Macro aspect: the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council: resolutely oppose the two tendencies, and continue to rectify “layer by layer”; The “big hawk” of the Federal Reserve: further interest rate hikes are required to reach the “restrictive level”, at least 5% – 5.25%. So far, the impact of interest rate hikes on inflation is limited. Recently, the officials of the Federal Reserve made another hawkish statement that the Federal Reserve will further increase interest rates. The 50BP interest rate increase is also a significant increase in interest rates. Therefore, the decline of the dollar has slowed down, and copper prices are also under pressure.

Supply side: LME does not restrict the delivery of Russian metal, which also reduces the risk of market position squeeze. However, domestic and foreign inventories are still at a low level, and the inventory has increased slightly this week. At present, the overhaul of copper smelting enterprises in Fujian market in South China has been completed, and the output has gradually rebounded. However, although the epidemic interference in Henan, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other places continued, it did not affect production, and the impact was more on the speed of transportation and delivery. Therefore, the short-term electrolytic copper output will continue to increase slightly.

Demand side: The copper price rises too fast in the short term, which also hurts downstream consumption, and it is difficult to support the copper price to continue to rise significantly.

Inventory: On November 17, copper in the previous period rose 9592 tons to 59025 tons from the beginning of the week. LME copper inventory rose 3125 tons to 80025 tons, up 3.6% from the beginning of the week.

To sum up, the current macro environment is neutral. After the overhaul, the domestic copper output has rebounded. Although the inventory has increased, it is still at a low level, supporting the copper price. The downstream demand is general, and the short-term copper price is expected to fall into a pattern of shock and weakness.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of November 18, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8886.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday and 7.11% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

The epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable this week. From the supply and demand side, the supply side devices have not changed much. The downstream staged replenishment has improved the market transaction atmosphere, eased the inventory pressure, and the enterprise quotation has tentatively increased. However, with the downstream replenishment, the market atmosphere has weakened, and small orders are just needed. This week, the epoxy chloropropane market has been deadlocked.

In terms of upstream and downstream, the raw propylene has been operating weakly in the near future, and the raw glycerin has been stable in a large scale, with limited cost support for epichlorohydrin. The reference price of the downstream epoxy resin was 16833.33 on November 17, a decrease of 8.68% compared with November 1 (18433.33), which generally supported the epichlorohydrin market.

The epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is still there, the actual support for supply and demand is average, and the market game is dominated by wait-and-see. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will still be in a stalemate in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of the 18th, the average price in the domestic market was 24000 yuan/ton, down 1.64% on a weekly basis. The price of magnesium ingots fell weakly this week, with a cumulative decline of 300-500 yuan/ton. The psychology of buying up rather than buying down was obvious, and the demand remained low.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 8142.86 yuan/ton. On Friday, futures prices rose significantly and spot prices eased. The price of coke has also retreated. There is a market rumor that the capacity replacement in Inner Mongolia will maintain a natural transition state, which is not mandatory. Most coke enterprises are mainly wait-and-see.

Downstream

The price of magnesium powder and magnesium alloy in the downstream follows the weak and steady progress of magnesium ingot, and the overall demand is average, only supported by rigid demand. Under the influence of the energy crisis and exchange rate, the actual performance of foreign orders was flat.

Future market forecast

Affected by the poor demand, the market has depressed the factory quotation, and most of the industry people are cautious, but they are not optimistic about the future market. However, considering the high price of ferrosilicon and raw coal, the price of magnesium ingot is basically near the cost line at present, and the decline of magnesium ingot is limited. It is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 179.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 163.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 8.92%. A year-on-year decrease of 45.19%. On November 20, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.98, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.83% from the peak of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 139.04% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is generally

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly, from 2017.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2021.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.19%. A year-on-year drop of 18.72%; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 957.50 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Future market forecast

In late November, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has declined slightly in the near future, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

This week (11.11-11.18), the acrylonitrile market rose and fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 11340 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from 11390 yuan/ton last Friday; 2.16% lower than the weekly high of 11590 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s listing price was raised, and the merchant’s offer rose. In the middle of the month, some manufacturers’ listing prices were lowered, and the market’s offer fell slightly. At present, the self lifting price of acrylonitrile is 10900~11600 yuan/ton.

This week (11.11-11.18), the pressure on the domestic acrylonitrile supply side was still high. Although the 260000 t/a Kolur equipment will be stopped for maintenance since the 10th of this month; However, the 450000 t/a unit of Jilin Petrochemical was upgraded to 70% load operation; The load of 780000 t/a acrylonitrile unit in Sierbang was increased to more than 80%; In addition, recent production of acrylonitrile devices such as Tianchen Qixiang and Liaoning Jinfa has increased the overall supply of acrylonitrile industry.

This week (11.11-11.18), the raw propylene market declined slightly, and the cost of acrylonitrile declined. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the domestic propylene price was 7230 yuan/ton, down 1.36% from 7330 yuan/ton last Friday. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream appeared to wait and see, and the demand was restrained. In order to stabilize the flow of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave back the increase. The overall supply and demand of propylene market is stable, with downstream demand as the main demand. However, this year, there are many new capacity, relatively loose supply, and great resistance to price rise. Affected by the sharp drop of crude oil on Friday, the market mentality was depressed, and the downstream receiving was slightly cautious.

Recently, the inventory of ABS petrochemical manufacturers downstream of acrylonitrile has accumulated slightly, the high level of industry commencement has declined slightly, and the support for acrylonitrile has weakened slightly; The inventory of the textile industry has accumulated, the demand for acrylic fiber has weakened, some manufacturers’ acrylic fiber devices have been running at a lower load, and their support for acrylonitrile has weakened.

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost of acrylonitrile has dropped slightly at present, the commencement of downstream ABS and acrylic fiber industries has declined slightly, and the supply side pressure has rebounded. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of November 11 was 8300.00 yuan/ton, up 0.40% compared with the price on Monday and 0.81% compared with the price on October 11.

This week, the quotation of enterprises in the melamine market was mainly stable, and the price of some enterprises was adjusted. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw material urea has risen recently, and the cost has risen against the support of melamine. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of the melamine market is relatively high. Domestic downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, local transportation is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of upstream urea was 2584.00 on November 10, an increase of 3.11% compared with November 1 (2506.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the current cost support is strong, the supply side operation rate is high, the demand side performance is average, and the market transaction is just in demand. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.

After the accelerated decline at the beginning of the month, the butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (11.4-11.11). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 11400 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from 11330 yuan/ton last Friday. The ex factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber for two barrels of oil was temporarily stable this week. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the ex factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11200 yuan/ton. Although the downstream commencement continued to decline, with the price of Shunding reaching a new low, the downstream inquiries increased, and the business offer was slightly adjusted. As of November 11, the market offer of Shunding Rubber was 11200~11750 yuan/ton, while the private Shunding mainstream offer was 10700~11300 yuan/ton.

In the near future, Haopu 60000 t/a and Lande 30000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants will be shut down for maintenance. However, in the later stage, the production pressure of new units such as Zhejiang Petrochemical is still large, and the supply of cis polybutadiene rubber will continue to be loose.

This week (11.4-11.11), the raw butadiene market fell sharply, dragging down the butadiene rubber market. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of butadiene was 6603 yuan/ton, down 7.60% from 7145 yuan/ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week (11.4-11.11), which has weak support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of natural rubber was 11800 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from 11610 yuan/ton last Friday.

The demand side is still weak. The commencement of downstream tire enterprises in November continued to decline, and the demand side is not supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business agency, the construction of semi steel tires in Shandong is less than 60%, and that of full steel tires is around 50%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business association, the supply pressure of cis polybutadiene rubber is still present, the cost is down, and the demand is light. It is expected that cis polybutadiene rubber will fall again in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, since November, the domestic PTA spot market has experienced strong fluctuations. As of November 14, the average price in the East China market was 5809 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the beginning of the month and 16.71% year on year. It is mainly driven by the contraction of the supply side and the upward shift of the cost side. Specifically:

In terms of PTA supply, recently, with the reduction of 80% to 90% in some plants in South China and the maintenance of 350000 tons of small chemical fiber lines in Yizheng, the operating rate of PTA devices has continued to shrink, and the current operating rate of the industry has fallen back to around 75%. The overall market supply shows a tightening trend, with less cash in circulation and less readily available cash sold by traders.

The crude oil price showed high volatility. In November, OPEC+started to reduce production, and the crude oil supply is expected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day. In addition, the demand for refined oil is still good, and the short-term demand for crude oil is strong in the fourth quarter when refinery operation remains high. As of November 11, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.96 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 95.99 dollars/barrel.

However, the demand side is still the key factor restricting the PTA price. Downstream polyester enterprises have accelerated production reduction. At the same time, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing have rapidly shrunk. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to below 60%. Some factories have holidays in advance. Downstream costs are weak to keep up. Terminal orders are scarce, and the market is generally pessimistic.

Analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand structure of crude oil is still biased, the oil price oscillation is strong, the supply of PX is still tight, and the cost support function appears. However, PTA unit maintenance will restart and new production capacity is expected to be put into production, so supply may increase. At the same time, I heard that some end weaving enterprises have prepared to start their annual leave in advance. The terminal demand is weak, and the weak supply and demand of PTA is a drag on their prices. Therefore, PTA will focus on weak shock adjustment in the short term. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the production progress of new units.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 14 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of China’s polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the first half of November was mainly stable, with the main report of 15428.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15471.43 yuan/ton on the 14th of the month, and a slight increase of 0.28% in the half month. Last month, following the policy of stopping production and resuming production, the manufacturer started work normally with sufficient inventory; Earlier this month, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, said that the impact of public health events continued, with limited transportation, slow delivery of goods and reduced orders; Although the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to rise, the acrylic acid is stable and weak, the downstream demand is general, and the polyacrylamide market is stable and fluctuates slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market in the first half of November continued to rise continuously since the beginning of September, and the high level was firm. On November 14, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 11370 yuan/ton, 3.65% higher than the price of 10970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the commencement of acrylonitrile unit is lower, on the other hand, the raw propylene market is significantly higher and the cost is rising, and the downstream commencement continues to maintain a high level, forming a rigid demand support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the acrylic acid market in the first half of November was stable and fell, and the transaction atmosphere in the downstream procurement market was light and stable. On November 14, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, 2.03% lower than the price of 8200 yuan/ton on November 1, 0.82% lower than the same period last year, and 54.27% lower than the same period last year. According to the analysis, at present, the pressure on the cost side is increasing, and the downstream is mainly following up on demand, with little change in the supply and demand side. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly reorganized and operated in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of business cooperatives, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 13.54% in the first half of this month: the market price of LNG was about 4712 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price was 5450 yuan/ton on the first day. Recently, due to the downturn in terminal demand, the market for liquefied natural gas continued to run weak due to the oversupply in the market. The industry held a wait-and-see attitude, with gains and losses in various regions of China. Although the cost has some support, the demand side has not improved, and the LNG market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

Future forecast: The economic downturn, the multiple impacts of public health events, and the continued weak demand will lead to a weaker market this year than the same period in previous years. With few orders and sufficient inventory, the surge of raw material acrylonitrile did not drive the rise of polyacrylamide. Judging from the current situation, the heating season is coming, and the future market will remain stable and weak.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3883.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3733.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 3.86%. A year-on-year drop of 17.04%. On November 10, the carbide commodity index was 97.82, unchanged from yesterday, 53.91% lower than the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and 76.28% higher than the minimum of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost is generally supported, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market was adjusted at a low level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1720-1810 yuan/ton this weekend, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week rose from 5992.86 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6057.14 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.07%. A year-on-year decrease of 45.45%. The PVC market price rose slightly, downstream customers became more active in calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

Calcium carbide may rise in the market after shocks

In the middle and late November, calcium carbide market rose mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material blue charcoal was consolidated at a low level. The cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. The downstream PVC market rose in a narrow range, and the downstream demand increased. In the middle and late November, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market as a whole experienced a narrow range of shocks, while the Henan market was strong and pushed up slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4580 yuan/ton on October 31 and 4590 yuan/ton on November 4, with a weekly increase of 0.22%, 4.02% higher than the same period last year.

As of November 4, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4570 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4250-4620 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market as a whole was mainly weak, with Henan market rising slightly and Hebei and Jiangxi markets temporarily stable. The price of raw material methanol remains weak, and the cost support is average. There is no obvious improvement in downstream demand, transportation in some areas is not smooth, shipment is blocked, and the factory gives way to profits. The supply in Henan is relatively low, and the factory is willing to support the price. The price has increased by 20 yuan/ton this week.

In general, the support of methanol for dimethyl ether is limited. The downstream just needs to supplement the reservoir mainly on the low side. With the cold weather in the future, the demand may gradually increase. It is expected that dimethyl ether will continue to operate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP wire drawing material was 7925 yuan/ton on October 30 and 7975 yuan/ton on November 7, with a weekly increase or decrease of+0.63%, which was -2.25% higher than the price on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP fiber material was 8033.33 yuan/ton on October 30, and the average price was 8100 yuan/ton on November 7. The weekly increase or decrease was+0.83%, which was -1.22% higher than the price on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP melt blown material was 9016.67 yuan/ton on October 30, and the average price was 9050 yuan/ton on November 7. The weekly increase and decrease range was+0.37%, which was -0.55% higher than the price on October 1.

Cause analysis

Last week, the news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase was solid, and the negative mentality brought by the global high inflation macroeconomic continued to affect the market. In addition, domestic health events rebounded in the week, and the risk area increased to about 4700, which affected the shipping and receiving of some enterprises. At the same time, the typhoon weather in South China at the weekend affected the port suitcase business, and multiple pressures led to greater resistance to the rise of the PP spot market.

In terms of raw materials: after the fall of crude oil in early November, there was a lot of news about the expected tightening of supply. The price rebounded in the second half of the week, and the cost side of oil to polypropylene supported the recovery. Propane was boosted by the higher external market price, while methanol price was firm, and the support for PDH and FMTP was strong and even. In general, the support of polypropylene raw material end is acceptable.

In terms of supply: Last week, the total domestic PP output declined steadily, with a total of about 600000 tons of PP produced in the week. Compared with last week, the capacity loss increased by more than 3000 tons. Due to the pressure of on-site shipment, the enterprise load is cautious and stable, and some enterprises reduce the load or conduct maintenance. The supply of goods decreased during the week, and the pressure on spot prices from suppliers decreased by a narrow margin.

Demand: last week, PP operated in a narrow range of shocks, falling first and then rising in the week. The spot shipment is affected by typhoon weather, health events and other aspects. The market delivery is smooth, and the terminal factory needs to follow up on the whole, which is slightly lagging behind. The main force of wire drawing materials downstream plastic knitting and BOPP order preparation enthusiasm is not high, and the inventory level runs horizontally.

The price of non-woven fabrics downstream of fiber material and melt blown PP is flat, the digestion speed of terminal products is stable, the profit of the enterprise is average, and the price is bottomed by cost and demand. At present, the situation of international health events in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China and neighboring countries has rebounded recently. However, it has limited pulling effect on medical melt blown cloth materials. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. There is abundant supply of melt blown materials in the market, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. The market competition is strong.

Future market forecast

Last week, with some funds leaving the market, the short-term profit margin of PP market was exhausted, and the market returned to the fundamental market of supply and demand game. The industry load decreased by a narrow margin, and the inventory decreased. The terminal just needs goods, but the follow-up order is slightly insufficient. Although petrochemical plants are willing to raise prices, the confidence of manufacturers and traders is not strong, and the market is generally empty due to macroeconomic impact. At present, the core guidance is still the far upstream international oil price. It is expected that the PP price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, focusing on consolidation and operation.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3950 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3883.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.69%, 33.43% YoY. On November 6, the carbide commodity index was 101.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.06% from the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 83.37% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost is generally supported, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market fell slightly, while that of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1720-1810 yuan/ton this weekend, with a slight decline. The PVC market price this week dropped from 6021.43 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5992.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.47%, 36.72% YoY. PVC market prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream market fell in shock, while carbide market fell in shock

In the middle and late November, the market of calcium carbide fell mainly due to narrow shocks. The price of raw material blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, and the PVC market in the downstream fell in a narrow range, with general downstream demand. The price of calcium carbide in northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid to late November.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose slightly this week. As of November 4, spot nickel was quoted at 195500 yuan/ton, up 4.99% from the beginning of the week and 35.47% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 7 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price is still in a wide range of shocks.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

As of November 3, LME nickel inventory was 51432 tons, 156 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 360 tons, a decrease of 0.7%.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 75bp as scheduled. Powell suggested that the pace of interest rate increase might slow down, but the high point of interest rate would be higher, and the interest rate would stay at the high level for a longer time, which was slightly hawkish and weakened risk appetite. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, the largest rate in 33 years, emphasizing that the peak interest rate will be lower than the market expectation; In October, the ISM non manufacturing industry in the United States hit a new low since May 2020, which coincided with the downturn of the manufacturing industry.

In terms of supply, the rainy season has arrived in the Philippines, and the supply of nickel ore at the mine end has entered a tightening stage, with firm prices. With the support of the ore end cost, the price of the ferronickel plant is firm, and the price center continues to move upward in the near future. The Indonesian government plans to release the nickel export tax policy in the third quarter of this year, but it has not yet implemented it. However, the news surfaced again last week. It is understood that the collection of NPI and ferronickel tax is a matter of time. If the export tax is implemented, Chinese stainless steel plants will have to spend more money on raw materials. If a 10% export tax is levied on the current NPI price, the cost of 304 stainless steel made in China will increase by 152 dollars per ton.

In terms of demand, the downstream acceptance of pure nickel is limited under the continuous high nickel price. Traders continue to reduce the spot premium, but the deal is average. The output of stainless steel in the downstream is increasing, and the demand for new energy is still strong, and the supply and demand in nickel market is relatively strong.

To sum up, the nickel industry chain is running strongly on the whole, the stainless steel industry’s output has increased demand for nickel, and the raw material supply side has disturbed the cost support. However, the domestic manufacturing industry’s PMI data is weak, the pace of repair has been disturbed by the epidemic, and the stainless steel import data has weakened. The nickel price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, after the festival, pure benzene rose and fell continuously. On October 1, the price was 7850-8200 yuan/ton (the average price was 7926 yuan/ton); On October 28, the price was 7450-7530 yuan/ton (average price was 7472 yuan/ton), down 5.72% this month and 2.07% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia has risen, which is good for boosting the domestic pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has risen. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded.

In this month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised twice and lowered four times, down 400 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton in Hebei and Shandong).

In terms of crude oil, due to the OPEC+meeting’s decision to significantly reduce production from November, crude oil rose broadly during the National Day holiday. However, in the context of multi country interest rate hikes, economic data is weak, and oil prices continue to play a game around demand concerns and supply shortages. As of October 28, Brent rose by 7.81 dollars/barrel, or 8.88%; WTI rose by 8.41 dollars/barrel, or 10.58%.

On the foreign side, the overall trend of pure benzene in Asia in the external market this month was first up and then down, which was boosted by the rise of crude oil in the early stage. On October 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $843/ton, a month on month drop of US $29/ton, or 3.33%; East China imported pure benzene at 870 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars/ton month on month, or 4.4%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the market is worried about the economic and demand prospects under the background of multi country interest rate increases; However, OPEC+plans to reduce production, and the geopolitical situation still worries about the tension of energy supply. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to play a long short game with a volatile trend. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

As China is at the high price of pure benzene, the import volume of pure benzene will remain high in the future. Domestically, there are many downstream overhaul devices for pure benzene at present, and the demand remains just in demand. It is estimated that the demand may improve in November. In the later period, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Zhongwei Guangdong Petrochemical Plant will be put into production, and the supply of pure benzene will increase. On the whole, the short-term market demand is insufficient, and the trend of pure benzene continues to be weak. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PA66 market price rose in October, and the spot price of each brand may be stable or rising. As of October 31, the ex factory price offered by the glue injection molding sample enterprises in the business agency PA66 was about 25250 yuan/ton on average, up and down by+2.02% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid market in the first half of this month continued to benefit the supply side, and prices rose rapidly. In the second half of the month, the decline of pure benzene brought negative cost and weak demand, which reversed the correction. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is still tight, and merchants are reluctant to sell. The market is firm, and the mentality of enterprises and merchants is stable.

The upstream raw material market is generally strong, and the cost side of PA66 is strongly supported. In terms of industry operating rate, recently, PA66 enterprises have been affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the industry load has been limited, and the market spot supply is tight, but the inventory has increased in the second half of the month. In terms of the port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival of overseas goods is average. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises prefer to maintain production just because they need to follow up with goods. The traditional peak season “Silver Ten” volume is less than expected. Downstream people are resistant to high price goods, and the factory demand release is less than that of previous years. The shipping speed of merchants slowed down, the transactions on the floor were average, and the market was in a stalemate.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the spot price of PA66 in October has risen steadily. The raw material side market remained strong, and the cost side support of PA66 was fair. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the pressure on the supply side is still small, and the demand side is slow to get goods. It is expected that PA66 will weaken in the short term due to the lagging consumption follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash in this month is temporarily stable. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was about 2670 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 2660 yuan/ton, down 0.37%, 25.59% compared with the same period last year. On October 27, the commodity index of light soda ash was 136.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.86% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 116.01% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash in this month has been consolidated. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2850 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton. Some data show that the inventory of soda ash this week is about 310000 tons, and the overall operating rate of the industry is about 89%.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall price of glass in this month was consolidated. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month was 19.72 yuan/square meter, and the average price at the end of the month was 19.73 yuan/square meter, with a slight increase of 0.05%. On the whole, the spot price of glass market in October rose in the first ten days of October, and fell in the second ten days of October. The market trading and investment situation in North China Shahe region is general, the market price is relatively flexible, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to replenish goods is general. Later, they will wait and see more, and the overall manufacturer’s inventory has decreased. In East China, the market trading situation is general, the market price is more flexible, and the inventory is reduced slightly. The overall production and sales in central China are not good. The prices of manufacturers have been reduced sporadically. Downstream and traders have replenished goods as needed, and the inventory has increased. The spot delivery of glass in South China is general, and downstream enterprises replenish as needed, with production and sales basically balanced. The production and marketing in the southwest are basically balanced, and the downstream is more wait-and-see. The glass market in northwest China is average, and the inventory has increased. The market trend in Northeast China is general, and the procurement is mainly on demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 42nd week of 2022 (10.17-10.21), there were 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodity, and 2 zero rising and falling commodities in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (1.88%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-2.37%) and PVC (-0.69%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.23%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the domestic soda ash price is generally stable and slightly dynamic, but the overall trading atmosphere is relatively general. The downstream of soda ash is still mainly purchased on demand. Near the end of the month, the market will mainly operate stably, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be consolidated in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in October, from 5933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.24%.

On October 30, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 35.36, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 17.40% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly histogram of isobutyraldehyde, the overall isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in October, with a maximum weekly increase of 10.11%.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in October

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose slightly in October, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde declined slightly in October. The price of propylene fell from 7620.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7136.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 6.35%. A year-on-year decrease of 10.24%. The weakening of upstream cost support has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde price.

Downstream neopentyl glycol market fluctuated in a narrow range in October. The price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated around 10066.67 yuan/ton. The downstream market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the downstream manufacturers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first half of November, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. Upstream propylene prices fell slightly, and cost support weakened. However, there is a downward trend in the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream. Downstream factories are less active in purchasing isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.