According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride has been declining recently. As of October 27th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% from 6570 yuan/ton on October 21st.

Supply side: The operating rate of maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the supply has increased; This week, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have declined, and the quotes from distributors have also fallen. The signing of new orders by factories is limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. As of October 27th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5800 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The overall international crude oil market has risen this week, with n-butane falling first and then rising. As of October 27th, the price in Shandong is around 5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: This week, the unsaturated resin market remained weak and stable, with insufficient follow-up on downstream demand for unsaturated resin, limited support for unsaturated resin, and strong market wait-and-see sentiment.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The supply of maleic anhydride has increased, and the recent signing of new orders by factories is limited. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly weakly consolidated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1604 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%. On October 24th, the baking soda commodity index was 106.00, a decrease of 0.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.05% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 20.09% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1594 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PET market price is adjusted weakly. As of October 21st, the PET factory’s quotation has been lowered, and its average market price has been adjusted to 6347 yuan per ton.

In terms of cost, the crude oil market has seen a recent decline in crude oil prices. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4912 yuan per ton, a decrease of over 200 yuan per ton compared to October 11th. The weakening of cost support and the increase in PTA supply and demand are the main reasons for the price decline. The short-term PTA spot market is mainly consolidating weakly, with crude oil and raw materials continuing to decline, PET currently lacking cost support, and the focus shifting downwards. Coupled with the stable increase in PET supply and weak downstream buying, the PET market prices continue to operate weakly.

Overall, the market is in a downward trend, and the PET market may experience weak fluctuations in the short term. The actual trend still depends on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1923 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1916 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market prices have been weak. The upstream soda ash prices of sodium metabisulfite have remained stable, with sulfur prices rising by 3.06% and downstream caprolactam prices falling by 0.65%. The sodium metabisulfite market has weak transactions and lacks favorable support. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sales of sodium metabisulfite in the market are mainly based on orders, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8250 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 8241 yuan/ton on September 27, during which the quotation fell by 0.10%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10350 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 10466 yuan/ton on September 29, with a price increase of 0.13% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8112 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 8125 yuan/ton on September 29, with a price increase of 0.15% during this period.

Recently, the price of polyethylene has increased. The release of macro positive policies has boosted market sentiment and boosted the polyethylene market. On the supply side, in terms of petrochemical inventory, according to data statistics, as of September 29th, the plastic two barrel oil inventory was 670000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons from Friday. The month on month increase was 2.29%, and the year-on-year increase was 19.64%. The company’s inventory accumulated, and most traders left before the holiday. There were not many on-site sources of goods, and the main focus was on raising prices. On the demand side, the pre holiday replenishment behavior is gradually slowing down.

The number of maintenance equipment in enterprises has decreased, and the pressure on domestic supply is still high. After the 11th National Day holiday, there may be replenishment activities, and it is expected that polyethylene will have a strong trend.