Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has continued to be weak, with month end spot prices hovering horizontally. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of EVA in China is 11333.33 yuan/ton.

Cause analysis

The weakness of the domestic EVA market continues, and on the supply side, the load on domestic EVA enterprises is around 70%. At the end of the month, there was still news of a reduction in negative prices for petrochemical plants, leading to a decline in market supply and a decrease in some auction sources. The pricing of manufacturers remains stable, and overall, the support from EVA suppliers for spot goods is average.

From the demand side perspective, recent EVA terminal enterprises have seen significant stability and small fluctuations in production, and their stocking situation remains unchanged in terms of purchasing and consumption logic. There was no significant increase in stocking before the holiday. Enterprises such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires have maintained weak sales, with few new orders added. At the end of the month, the number of operations for merchants to complete the task of selling orders has increased. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have continued to be weak in recent days, and the buying and selling parties are in a wait-and-see atmosphere at the end of the month. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. The industry load continues to fall, and the overall demand side is not performing well. It is expected that EVA spot prices will remain stagnant during the May Day period.

The domestic dimethyl ether market stabilized first and then rose in April. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3600 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 3840 yuan/ton on April 28th. The monthly increase was 6.67%, a decrease of 6.11% compared to the same period last year.

As of April 28th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3800-3850 yuan/ton

In April, the dimethyl ether market in Henan region stabilized first and then rose. In early April, the price of dimethyl ether remained stable. The on-site supply remains stable, with downstream essential procurement as the main focus. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and on-site trading is light. Starting from late April, the price of dimethyl ether has been raised multiple times. The raw material methanol continues to rise, driven by high costs, and the mentality of the industry has slightly improved. Under cost pressure, dimethyl ether enterprises are pushing up prices, with a significant increase in Henan region. At the same time, downstream consumers have a clear resistance to high priced dimethyl ether, and demand remains weak.

The raw material methanol market fluctuated and fell. After reaching a low point on April 9th, it began to rise to the monthly high point on April 19th, and then began to fall, providing strong support for dimethyl ether.

Overall, the support of raw materials for dimethyl ether has weakened, and it is expected that there will be insufficient momentum for the continued rise of dimethyl ether in the future. On the contrary, under the constraint of demand, it is expected that the possibility of a slight decline in dimethyl ether prices will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2966 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 2910 yuan/ton on April 22nd. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate fell by 1.91%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3940 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 3930 yuan/ton on April 22nd. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.25%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium phosphate market continued to operate weakly. The decrease in raw material prices has weakened cost support. Spring plowing has entered the final stage, with weak demand in the ammonium phosphate market and limited new transactions. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, and the market supply has decreased. As of April 22nd, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2880-2950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4070 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3550-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight decline. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is average, with limited trading of new orders on the exchange, and weak performance in the downstream market of phosphate ore. In some regions, the slightly tight supply of phosphate ore can still support mining companies in maintaining stable quotations, but in some areas, the overall pace of phosphate ore shipments is average due to the weak supply and demand. Therefore, some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 20-30 yuan/ton.

The sulfur market for raw materials has seen a rise followed by a fall in sulfur prices in East China this week. The maintenance of refineries in Shandong region is concentrated, and the market supply of goods is still low. Enterprise inventory is relatively low, and most refineries have strong quotations. At the same time, downstream procurement is active, and market trading is good. Some enterprises have lowered their quotations due to high price increases in the early stage and downstream resistance. The overall sulfur market is still operating at a relatively high level.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium phosphate market has recently seen a downward trend. At present, downstream demand performance is poor, with weak costs and demand. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

This week (4.15-19), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. The transaction prices of major manufacturers were generally lowered by about 3000 yuan/ton this week, slightly slower than the previous week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.44%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 42000 to 50000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, large factories are currently operating with concentrated facilities, resulting in high supply pressure. On the one hand, mainstream large factories have stable output, new production capacity has been gradually released, and domestic supply has performed well. On the other hand, the high inventory of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers has led to a significant decrease in procurement efforts, which has also led to a gradual increase in silicon material inventory. Although large factories have generally raised prices before, they are currently under inventory pressure and have to lower prices in order to clear inventory. It is not ruled out that prices may continue to loosen in the future.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, this week’s silicon wafer prices continued their previous decline, and since April, silicon wafer prices have continued to decline. The operating load of silicon wafer companies has decreased, and the current inventory pressure is relatively high. The main reason is the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with insufficient production from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to an oversupply situation. Some second and third tier silicon wafer manufacturers continue to reduce operating rates to alleviate inventory pressure. However, the current effect is not significant, and the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to solve in the short term. As of April 19th, the mainstream transaction price of M10 silicon wafers this week remained at last week’s level, about 1.65 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of G12 continues to decline, with a decrease of 0.05 yuan, falling to 2.10 yuan/piece.

From the perspective of terminal demand, most battery cell quotations have stabilized, and prices have stopped the downward trend, but some models still have a slight decline. The main reason is the weakening of downstream demand, the significant price reduction of upstream silicon wafers, and the decrease in procurement efforts at the component end, which have double suppressed the overall environment of solar cells. This week, the components were affected by the sluggish terminal installation, resulting in a sluggish price trend and a pattern of oversupply in the photovoltaic industry chain.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, and the contradiction of oversupply is prominent. However, the performance of installed capacity demand is moderate, and it is expected that the upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and there may still be room for a decline in silicon material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on April 19th was 5700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average price of 5700 yuan/ton on April 15th.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has first increased and then decreased, and cost support is still acceptable. At present, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement is in urgent need. Detailed discussions on actual orders are being conducted, and market transactions are limited. As of April 19th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5600-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has continued to rise this week. The current market trend is improving, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine increased first and then decreased this week. Currently, downstream demand has weakened, and the sales situation is not good. Negotiations on actual orders are the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the recent decrease in raw material liquid chlorine prices has weakened cost support. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffin is insufficient, and the market is mainly cautious. It is expected that the short-term market price of chlorinated paraffin will be adjusted and operated on a wait-and-see basis.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to rise in April. On April 17th, the sulfur price was 1240.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.53% compared to the sulfur price of 1073.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since April, the sulfur market has continued to rise strongly. Before the Qingming Festival, downstream companies were actively stocking up before the festival, with active on-site trading, smooth enterprise shipments, and an upward trend in sulfur prices; After the holiday, refineries in Shandong have concentrated maintenance, reduced capacity utilization, low inventory levels, and tight market supply. Refinery prices have risen significantly, while downstream procurement is more active, making it difficult to find low prices on the market. In the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the focus of market transactions continues to shift upwards. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 1180-1330 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1180-1320 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market fluctuated narrowly, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price on April 17th at 331.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the beginning of the month price of 328.75 yuan/ton. The domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly stable, with acid companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining a delivery rhythm. Downstream demand and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Acid companies ship according to demand, and some adjust sulfuric acid prices slightly based on inventory conditions.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 2966.67 yuan/ton on April 17th, a decrease of 4.20% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3096.67 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the ammonium phosphate market is sluggish, downstream purchases are light, demand support is insufficient, manufacturers have limited new orders, pending orders are reduced, enterprise sales are under pressure, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to decline.

Technical analysis

Sulfur may continue to be strong and upward in the short term. Since January 28, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 23.58%.

At present, sulfur is at a high level in one year, a low level in two years, and a low level in three years. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average value of sulfur in the past year is 956.46 yuan/ton, the median value is 976.67 yuan/ton, the minimum value is 713.33 yuan/ton, and the maximum value is 1240.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past year) is 526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past year) is 0.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, the sulfur market currently has a lot of equipment maintenance, tight supply of goods, stable downstream demand, smooth enterprise shipments, and strong supplier benefits. It is expected that sulfur prices will continue to be strong in the short term, but in the long run, it will be difficult to find low prices downstream or there may be resistance to high priced sulfur. The sulfur market will remain stagnant and consolidated in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has continued to rise in recent days (4.1-4.16). On April 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7930 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.62% from 7580 yuan/ton on the first day.

The high volatility of international crude oil prices provides some support for the cost of mixing xylene

Recently (4.1-4.16), under the resonance of multiple factors, the international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of April 16th, WTI05 contract settlement is $85.36 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $90.02 per barrel. The high volatility of Asian mixed xylene prices provides support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $979 to $980 per ton as of April 16th.

Mixed xylene port inventory slightly decreases, supply pressure slightly alleviates

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has slightly decreased, but the supply pressure remains at a high level. It is understood that as of April 11th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 79000 tons, which continued to decline compared to the inventory at the end of March.

The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the necessary support for mixed xylene still exists

The prices for parking and maintenance of some domestic devices have been adjusted to a high level, and as of April 15th, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 780%. The PX price in the Asian outer market continues to rise, providing some support for the domestic market. As of April 15th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1030 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1055 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has risen, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still plans for equipment maintenance in May and June in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply is expected to provide some support for the mixed xylene market.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the mixed xylene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still operating above the 30 day moving average, and it is expected that mixed xylene prices will still have strong support in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, in the short term, the international crude oil market will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; Downstream PX production has slightly decreased, but overall there is still support, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and mixed blending industries is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

Last week (April 8-14, 2024), downstream weakness and lack of positive news support in the market led to a downward trend in the viscose short fiber market. A new round of prices was introduced by major manufacturers, and prices from different manufacturers were lowered to varying degrees, causing the price center of the viscose short fiber market to shift downwards. The market for raw material and main material dissolved pulp remains stable, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market continues to be weak. The sulfuric acid market is partially pushed forward, and the cost support for the adhesive short fiber market is limited; Downstream yarn factories still mainly consume early inventory and replenish small quantities as needed. The demand side has shown weak performance, and downstream demand has not shown a significant improvement. Real transactions on the market are limited, and there is a lack of positive news support in the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of viscose short fibers declined last week (April 8-14, 2024). As of March 14th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fibers is 13320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week’s price, with a weekly decrease of 1.33%.

In terms of cost, the market price of raw material dissolved pulp remains stable, with imported broadleaf dissolved pulp priced at around 880 US dollars per ton and needle leaf dissolved pulp priced at around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is priced at around 7600 yuan/ton. The price center of the auxiliary material liquid alkali market has shifted downwards, while the price of sulfuric acid market has slightly increased. The cost performance is average, and the average production cost of viscose short fibers has decreased.

In terms of supply: Last week (April 8-14, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained around 79.21%, with a slight decrease in production compared to last week. During the week, adhesive short fiber manufacturers had to shut down their equipment for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply. There is currently no inventory pressure on the site.

In terms of demand: downstream people mainly execute orders in the cotton yarn market, and the price trend is downward. Downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and multi-dimensional rigid demand procurement is maintained. The demand side has constraints on the raw material market from bottom to top.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (April 8-14, 2024), downstream cotton yarn operated weakly and steadily, with the market mainly executing orders. The overall price slightly declined, and some yarn factories saw partial price declines in their quotations. Overall shipments were average, inventory was basically maintained, and demand side performance was weak. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and actual transactions on the market are limited. As of April 14th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17525 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.43%.

Future Market Forecast:

The trend of the upstream raw material market is not good, and the cost support is weakened. Although the inventory of manufacturers is not high, the demand side performance is weak, with primary demand for goods and average trading activity on the market. Business Society analysts predict that the market for viscose short fibers will remain stable in the short term, and prices may slightly increase. The market for artificial cotton yarn will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the nitrile rubber market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from 15450 yuan/ton on the 1st. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have risen, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support it; Downstream production has declined, resulting in weak demand for nitrile rubber. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; The pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber has been relieved. As of April 15th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17000-17200 yuan/ton.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the price of butadiene was 11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52% from 11525 yuan/ton on the 1st; As of April 15th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10362 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.02% compared to the price of 9962 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the production of nitrile rubber plants in China has declined. There are still plans to shut down devices from April to July in the later stage.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained around 5.5%, while the production of insulation foam has slightly decreased to around 5.5%. Downstream inquiries about nitrile rubber are small, and market transactions are light. The overall demand for nitrile rubber is weak.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the Business Society nitrile rubber index chart shows that from the beginning of the year to early April, the 7-day moving average of the nitrile rubber index continued to rise above the 30 day moving average, and at this time, the overall spot market prices showed an upward trend; Since mid April, the 7-day moving average has gradually fallen below the 30 day moving average, and the spot price of nitrile rubber has slightly decreased; From a technical perspective, nitrile rubber is currently breaking the 30 day support line, and there is a high probability of a downward trend in the later period.

From a fundamental perspective, Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the high cost of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber is supported by high prices; Downstream production is declining, inquiries are cautious, and the impact on nitrile rubber is bearish; The downward pressure on the supply of nitrile rubber has eased, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8257 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 8292 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.43% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9287 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 9312 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.27% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8475 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 8475 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

The price of polyethylene has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, supported by the bullish rise in crude oil, the cost side supported a slight increase in polyethylene. On the supply side, there are many domestic polyethylene plant shutdowns for maintenance, resulting in reduced pressure on the supply side. Petrochemical companies have slightly increased their prices, while traders have followed suit with a slight increase. In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand is improving, and factories will replenish inventory in an appropriate amount after the holiday, while sales are still acceptable. But there is a certain resistance to the continuously rising high priced supply, and downstream factories have weakened their purchasing intentions.

On April 12th, the polyethylene l2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was opened at 8400 yuan and closed at 8369 yuan, a decrease of 17 yuan. The highest price was 8408 yuan and the lowest was 8341 yuan, a decrease of 0.20%. This week, polyethylene futures showed a strong trend at the beginning of the week, which to some extent benefited the polyethylene spot market. Afterwards, the futures market weakened, weakening support for spot prices.

The maintenance of polyethylene equipment has increased, and the supply side is expected to decrease; The demand for plastic film began to weaken in late April, and the demand for greenhouse film is in the off-season; It is expected that polyethylene prices will mainly operate in a narrow range with limited upward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 11th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43620 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42316 yuan/ton. Since April, the lithium iron phosphate market has continued to recover, with upstream iron phosphate prices fluctuating mainly. This week, the price increased by 0.81%, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton, providing strong support for lithium iron phosphate on the cost side.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has been continuously rising. Since April, the market price of lithium iron phosphate has remained high and the trend has remained strong. The cost side price of lithium iron phosphate has strong support, and there is still support for lithium carbonate. As of April 11th, the price of lithium iron phosphate has continued to rise. Currently, the upstream dual raw material prices continue to rise, and the cost side support of lithium iron phosphate is strong. In addition, downstream demand continues to decrease. The purchasing atmosphere is good, and the negotiation focus remains high. There is no pressure on inventory. Currently, downstream enterprises mainly purchase in demand, and the factory operating rate is relatively high. Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly focus on production and sales. Today, the upstream price of lithium carbonate is mainly stable and strong, and lithium salt enterprises maintain a positive selling attitude. Due to recent market demand, Prices continue to rise, and companies have a clear willingness to hoard goods. Recently, the number of orders has significantly increased.

In terms of cost: March is the traditional spring plowing season, and due to the increase in demand for phosphate fertilizer, upstream phosphate prices have remained stable and strong. Phosphoric acid, as the main phosphorus element in iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, directly affects downstream prices at the cost end. The upstream iron ore prices have shown an upward trend, with an increase of up to 10% since early April. Under the continuous stimulation of cost pressure, the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate have passively risen. It is expected that strong support from the cost end will continue in the short term, driving up the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate.

In terms of demand: Currently, the production and sales of energy storage cells have rebounded recently, and the pressure of high inventory levels has been significantly alleviated in March. Recently, the leading lithium battery company, CATL, announced at the energy storage new product launch event that the Tianheng standard 20 foot containerized energy storage system will no longer cause a drop in the lifespan of the product’s lithium battery, achieving 15000 laboratory cycles. The large capacity of energy storage cells has sparked a large-scale boom, which will drive the continuous upgrading of the lithium battery industry to cope with more challenges.

In terms of production: According to statistics, the production of lithium iron phosphate in March was 164000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons or 32.3% compared to February. The production of iron phosphate was 121100 tons, a significant increase of 103% compared to the previous month and a significant increase of 75% compared to the same period last year. After the Qingming Festival, orders for lithium iron phosphate have significantly recovered, leading enterprises have rebounded in prices and considerable profits. Enterprises have continuously increased their production to meet the demand for downstream power vehicles. The full month production capacity in March has approached the high level of the same period last year. Currently, downstream demand is not decreasing, and upstream cost support is favorable. It is expected that production capacity will continue to increase in April.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Market and technical prediction: In the short term, the market price of lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue to rise

In the future market of lithium iron phosphate, there is a high possibility of an upward trend. Currently, spot prices continue to rise, and with the dual assistance of cost and demand, the upward trend of lithium iron phosphate is full of momentum. The commodity analysis system prediction model of Shengyishe shows that since March 1, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. At that time, the price of lithium iron phosphate in Shengyishe was in a continuous upward trend, and the daily moving average on April 6, 2024 has once again crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, it can be seen that the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. According to calculations on April 11, 2024, the possibility of market changes in the next 7 days is not significant. Therefore, it is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate will continue to rise in the short.

In summary, as of April, the peak season of production and sales continues, and battery cell companies are accelerating their delivery speed, increasing their orders. New energy vehicle models continue to be launched, and iron lithium companies have full confidence in the future market. The demand for the power market is quite obvious, and the spring market is also gradually recovering. It is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate market will further increase.

The domestic acrylic acid market has shown a continuous upward trend in the past half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.99% compared to March 24th (acrylic acid reference price of 6262.50).

Cause analysis:

Supply side:

East China region: Main factory equipment maintenance, overall market supply and demand pattern tightening, supporting prices to rise.

Shandong region: At the end of March, some facilities resumed operation, but enterprises mainly executed pre orders in the early stage, with tight spot prices and no pressure on the supply side to raise prices.

Overall, the price increase of acrylic acid in this stage is mainly supported by favorable factors such as supply side maintenance and tight spot prices.

On the demand side:

Recently, the downstream inquiry atmosphere has been active, but overall, it continues to be mainly based on demand procurement, with a high intention to replenish at low prices. Follow up on high priced raw materials is still cautious. Among them, the main downstream butyl acrylate reduces the load of the enterprise in a narrow range, and the terminal tape master roll and acrylic lotion factory just need to purchase. In general, the demand at this stage is generally supported by the acrylic market.

Cost side:

In March, the supply and demand game in the raw material propylene market resulted in a slight decrease in the price center. At the end of March, the price of propylene rebounded after falling to a low point, providing stronger support for the acrylic acid market. Since April, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated weakly with a narrow range, and the profit level of the acrylic acid market has improved. Overall, the current cost is still supported by the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

In the past half month, the acrylic acid market has shown a strong upward trend due to various factors such as reduced production and cost. In the later stage, there are expectations of individual devices restarting in the South China region, and the regional market supply may increase. However, the current supply side is operating without pressure, and the tight supply pattern on site is profound. Short term supply side support still exists. The utilization rate of downstream butyl acrylate production capacity may slightly increase, and terminal consumption is expected to support stable demand. In summary, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.26%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is mainly volatile. Downstream olefin factories have reduced their purchases of methanol from mainland China, and the purchasing sentiment in the mainland market is also average, with a focus on maintaining essential procurement. Coal prices currently have no support for the market, and both mainland and port sources are showing an increasing trend. However, traditional downstream and MTO consumption levels are expected to weaken, and the supply-demand gap in the industry is further expanding. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

In recent times, the methanol market has been fluctuating, and cost support is still acceptable. Enterprises are producing normally, while downstream suppliers are maintaining essential procurement. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly increase as the main players.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market saw a slight increase in March. As of March 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9937 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 4.47% from 9512 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continues to support; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, saw a slight decline in production, with weak support from demand for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production has steadily increased slightly, with a slight increase in the supply of acrylonitrile; The acrylonitrile market has slightly increased, with the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in East China ranging from 9600 to 10000 yuan/ton as of the 29th.

In March, the load of the acrylonitrile unit slightly increased, with the start of operation increasing from 6.2% at the beginning of the month to around 6.5%. The 452000 ton/year acrylonitrile unit of Jilin Petrochemical was reduced to 70% load operation by the end of February; Tianchen Qixiang’s 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant will restart at the end of February; Starting from the 18th, the 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile produced by Jihua (Jieyang) will be shut down for maintenance.

In March, the price of raw material propylene slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 29th, the domestic propylene price was 6790 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 1.17% from 6870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 29th, the domestic liquid ammonia price was 3323 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.65% from 2976 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month

Downstream demand for acrylonitrile is weakly supported. In March, the equipment load in the ABS industry slightly decreased, with the start of production dropping from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 6.3% at the end of the month; The nitrile rubber plant started construction steadily in March, and there is a maintenance plan for the enterprise plant in the later stage. The overall demand for acrylonitrile in March is stable, and may slightly decrease in the later stage; The overall production of acrylamide in March remained at a low level of around 4.6%; Overall, downstream demand support for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that there is still pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile at present; The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continues to support; In the face of weak demand support for acrylonitrile, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience narrow fluctuations in April.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mixed xylene market continued to rise slightly in March. On March 31st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% from 7420 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

High international crude oil and foreign market prices provide support for mixed xylene production

In March, supply risks increased due to the geopolitical situation, and international crude oil prices rose, providing stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 28th, WTI05 contract settlement is $83.17 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.00 per barrel. The slight increase in the price of mixed xylene in Asia has supported the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $948 to $949 per ton as of March 29th.

Relative high level mixed xylene production requires support for xylene production

In March, international crude oil and PX prices remained high, providing support for the price of mixed xylene. As of March 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1026-1028 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051-1053 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have fluctuated narrowly.

The production of phthalic anhydride is basically stable, and the demand support for mixed xylene is weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed production and weak support for mixed xylene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of the end of March, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.2.

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has decreased, and the supply pressure has slightly eased

The continued increase in mixed xylene port inventory has put pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of March 28th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 88000 tons, a decrease of about 12000 tons from late February.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

The xylene units of Hubei Jin’ao and Jinke Refinery were shut down for maintenance in March; Jiangsu Xinhai, Zhenghe Petrochemical and other facilities plan to shut down for maintenance in April, and there are still plans for maintenance in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to rise in the later stage.