From January 1 to January 30, 2023, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was reduced in a narrow range. The spot market price in East China was 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 0.29%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that the electrolytic manganese market has stopped falling and recovered since August. Although the increase in August and September was less than 1%, the increase in October was 3.59%, and the electrolytic manganese market began to recover. From the weekly bar chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a temporary stable operation for most of the time, and entered a narrow price decline in December.

In terms of manganese ore: the growth of the manganese ore market slowed down, and the enthusiasm of the production side to take the goods decreased. The market transactions were dominated by traders. With the continuous rise of the northern oxide ore, Gabon’s uncertainty fermentation, the closing situation intensified, and the increase in the offer was relatively obvious. The southern delivery channel was relatively stable, and the stock was basically completed before the year. Although the mentality was also with the rising mood, the manufacturers basically entered the holiday cycle, and the circulation situation was poor. The oxidized ore in Tianjin Port rose by 1 yuan/ton, Australia’s 48 yuan/ton, Gabon’s 45.5 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi-carbonic acid 36.5-37 yuan/ton. The price of South Africa’s high-speed railway rose to 34-35 yuan/ton due to the low inventory in the near future; The price of Qinzhou Port – Macao Block is 47-47.5 yuan/tonne, the price of Gabon Block is around 45 yuan/tonne, the price of semi-carbonic acid in South Africa is 39.5-40 yuan/tonne, and the South African high-speed railway will rise to 33.5 yuan/tonne.

After entering December, the electrolytic manganese market fluctuated and declined, with a slight decrease of about 100 yuan/ton per week. At the beginning of January, the trend of December continued, and the price declined in a narrow range. The domestic mainstream price is 15400-15600 yuan/ton, and the overall holiday atmosphere of the market is relatively strong in January due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, and the trading volume is slightly cold. In terms of supply, the current operating rate has not changed much. The ex-factory price of domestic mainstream manufacturers is around 15400-15600 yuan/ton, and the manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price. In terms of downstream demand, the holiday is approaching, and the winter storage in the downstream is basically coming to an end. The market mentality is generally stable. In terms of steel recruitment, the performance is average, and the price falls, affecting the market mentality. In general, the current electrolytic manganese market has maintained a weak operation as a whole. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected to maintain a stable, medium and weak operation in the short term. The market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

The domestic spot market of silicon and manganese remained stable as a whole, and the merchants’ price sentiment continued, and the transaction was relatively cold. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia (the specification is FeMN68Si18) was around 7150-7250 yuan/ton on January 13. The power rationing in some southern regions has eased slightly. It is said that a new round of power rationing may start again. The enthusiasm of manufacturers to resume production is low. The overall stock of manufacturers is tight, and orders are basically full in January. This week (01.12): the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) is 59.65% nationwide, 0.82% lower than last week; The average daily output is 28519 tons, minus 37 tons.

Relevant data:

Customs data showed that the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder in December 2022 was about 5003.818 tons, down about 16.6% month on month and up 47.85% year on year. In December 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder was about 24929.7 tons, down about 2.28% month-on-month and 28.56% at the same time.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 174.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 46.30% year-on-year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on January 15 was 45.79, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.79% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 154.67% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from 2033.75 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2020.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.68%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 17.21%; The market price of ammonium chloride was consolidated at a high level, with the market price of 1157.50 yuan/ton, which showed a downward trend at the weekend. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weakened.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late January, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The recent low level of the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated, and the cost support is general. The market prices of the downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a small fluctuation in recent years.

According to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of January 13, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 5675.00 yuan/ton, up 1.34% from the same period last week. In the short term, DMF is mainly strong, with stable supply and general purchasing atmosphere.

This week, the domestic DMF price is mainly strong. At present, the mainstream price range is 5600.00 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF market price has increased by 1.34%, the operating rate is mainly stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, the logistics is slowly running, and the manufacturer gives up profits and takes orders.

Chemical commodity index: On January 12, the chemical index was 910 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 35.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 52.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts from the Business Agency believe that the DMF market is expected to operate in a stable and strong manner in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of Business News Agency, as of January 6, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8233.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of Tuesday (January 3), and was 1.20% lower than that of December 6, 2022 (the reference price of melamine was 8333.33 yuan/ton).

The melamine market this week was mainly stable. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen slightly, the cost support has increased, the operating rate of melamine market has declined, and the output has decreased slightly. In addition to the export support, the enterprises have a low mentality, but the performance of domestic downstream demand is not good, the purchase is scattered and rigid, the market trading atmosphere is stagnant, and the price fluctuates steadily.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 6. On January 5, the reference price of urea was 2725.00, up 1% from January 1 (2698.00).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that at present, the price of raw material urea has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the industry operating rate is low, and the export order is still good, which has some support for the melamine market, but the downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, and the enthusiasm for centralized stock is not high. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will probably stagnate, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market information.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. From January 3 to 6 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of the domestic methanol market at the East China port dropped from 2708 yuan/ton to 2680 yuan/ton. During the period, the price fell by 1.05%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31% and a year-on-year increase of 12.25%. Due to the strong crude oil during the New Year’s Day period and the demand for bottom-seeking raised before the holiday, the sentiment of the mainland market returned after the holiday was positive, and the price of gas support was strongly pulled up. With the decline of the crude oil and futures market, the market price in the second half of the week recovered synchronously, the sentiment of the mainland returned to rationality, the buying gas weakened, and the methanol price fell from a high point.

As of the close of January 6, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2635 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2640 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2595 yuan/ton, and closed at 2632 yuan/ton, up 4% or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1298578, the position was 1157579, and the daily increase was 67700.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of 1.6:

Region/ Price

Shanxi Province/ 2200 yuan/ton ex-factory

Liaoning region/ 2350-2430 yuan/ton

Anhui Province/ About 2500-2550 yuan/ton

Henan Province/ 2400-2520 yuan/ton

On the cost side, near the end of the year, the coal mines in the main production areas that have completed the annual production began to reduce production or stop production, and the coal production at the end of the year fell after the winter safety inspection and the weak and stable operation of market sales. With the steady promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply of coal, the demand side lacks substantial support at the end of the year, and the short-term coal price will remain stable and weak. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Henan heart-to-heart device restarted, and the demand for dimethyl ether increased; Downstream acetic acid: after the New Year’s Day, the demand for acetic acid may increase due to the negative increase of Hualu Hengsheng unit; Downstream formaldehyde: some units in Wen’an, Hebei, Liuyang, Henan, and Jining, Shandong are expected to shut down, and some units in Kaifeng, Henan, Jining, Shandong, and Heze, Shandong are planned to reduce the demand for formaldehyde. Demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, Xinjiang Zhongtai 200000 t/a, Chongqing Cabelle 850000 t/a and Sichuan Jiuyuan 500000 t/a units are planned to resume, and the supply is increasing. The methanol supply side is negative.

In the external market, as of the close of January 5, the closing price of the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $371.00-372.00/ton, up $7/ton. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 101.75-102.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 305.00-306.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 371.00-372.00 USD/ton./7 USD/ton

Europe and America/ US Gulf/ 101.75-102.75 cents/gallon./0 cents/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 305.00-306.00 euro/ton./- 5 euro/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the cost of methanol will be supported or weakened, the supply will be abundant, and the demand will be reduced. The methanol analyst of the Business Agency predicted that the domestic methanol market might continue to be weak.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.30-1.6) fluctuated downward. The average domestic market price was 208160 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 202360 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.79%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price rose continuously after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors, and began to decline after 23 years.

In the futures market, this week’s shock was the main factor, with a weekly drop of more than 2.5%. In the macro aspect, the hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve once again affected the market, and there was no intention to cut interest rates in 2023. The US non-agricultural data warmed up again. The market’s risk aversion gradually increased, affecting the market mentality, and the metal market generally fell.

In the spot market, affected by the futures market, the tin price has been continuously reduced this week. From the basic point of view, the current operating rate has not changed much, and the overall increase is small. The overall performance is a loose supply pattern. In terms of downstream demand, there is a certain demand for stock preparation before the holiday. Downstream enterprises purchase on bargain hunting, and domestic inventory has declined slightly. However, as the holiday approaches, the stock preparation in the downstream is basically coming to an end. Some enterprises have introduced holiday arrangements, which is a negative market mentality. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future market will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a broad volatility trend.

 
The non-ferrous index stood at 1179 points on January 8, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.34% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 94.23% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were seven commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2023 (1.2-1.6), with the top three commodities rising respectively being metal praseodymium (2.19%), antimony (1.67%) and neodymium oxide (1.30%). There are 10 commodities with a month-on-month decline, and 2 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were nickel (- 9.87%), aluminum (- 5.30%) and silver (- 3.84%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.93%.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, 2023, the domestic butanone market price reference was 8500 yuan/ton. Compared with January 3, 2023 (8600 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, or 1.16%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the first week (1.3-1.6) after the New Year’s Day, the domestic butanone market was generally weak and fell. This week, the downstream demand for butanone was weak, the trading atmosphere in the market was cold, and the effective support for the butanone market was insufficient. The overall focus of the market was moving downward. The overall reduction of the butanone market price was about 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, as of January 6, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and some high-end prices are around 8700-8900 yuan/ton. The overall price difference between high and low prices in the field is large.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream construction of butanone is generally started, and some factories have stopped. The downstream demand side has given loose market support. Butanone data engineers from the business community believe that in the short term, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is difficult to improve. Butanone market prices tend to be narrow and weak. More attention should be paid to major factories and changes in market news.

From December 23, 2022 to December 30, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi was lowered. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6337.5 yuan/ton last weekend and 6155 yuan/ton this weekend, down 2.88%.

On December 30, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 212.24, unchanged from yesterday, 8.31% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and 350.14% higher than the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The downstream deep processing industry has weakened as a whole, and has cracked down on the coal tar market. Recently, the coking enterprises have started to work slightly, and the tar supply has improved slightly. This week, the tar bidding price has declined as a whole.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market rose for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise, and fell in December.

In terms of the industrial chain, the commodity prices of the downstream deep processing industry rose and fell by half this week, with the overall decline more or less. The prices of anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch fell, while the industrial naphthalene rose slightly. With the decline in the price of raw tar, the downstream profit situation has been restored and the operating rate has been generally stable.

The coal tar market continued to decline this week, with a downward range of 100-200 yuan/ton, including 6210 yuan/ton for mainstream prices in Shandong, 6100-6200 yuan/ton for Hebei, 6210 yuan/ton for Henan, and 6050-6200 yuan/ton for Shanxi. In terms of supply, coking enterprises continued to increase production this week, with a slightly loose supply of tar and a weak mentality. The recent trend of the downstream deep processing industry has been mixed, with more falls and less rises overall. The downstream has a strong price depressing mentality, lacks downstream support, and the tar price has dropped significantly. On the whole, negative factors in the tar market are dominant at present, the market is expected to be loose in supply, and the tar price is expected to remain stable and weak in the future.

DOTP prices fluctuated and consolidated in December

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 30, the average price of DOTP was 9800 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the average price of 9875 yuan/ton on December 1. Weak demand for cost consolidation and weak consolidation of DOTP price.

Price consolidation of raw materials in December

According to the data of the business association; As of December 30, the price of isooctanol was 9833.33 yuan/ton, up 5.42% from 9233.33 yuan/ton on December 1. The effect of easing epidemic prevention and control was less than expected, the price of isooctanol rose in shock, the cost of DOTP was adjusted in shock, and the momentum for DOTP to rise remained.

According to the data of the business community, as of December 30, the PTA price was 5616.36 yuan/ton, down from 5553.33 yuan/ton on December 1, and up 1.13%. The international crude oil price fell first and then rose, the confidence of downstream textile enterprises recovered, downstream orders increased, the market periodically replenished, PTA demand recovered, PTA prices rose in shock, and DOTP gained momentum.

Future market expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business association, in December, the plasticizer DOTP raw material isooctanol was adjusted by shocks, PTA prices rose by shocks, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material rose by shocks; For the downstream, the epidemic prevention and control measures continued to advance, the recovery of downstream enterprises accelerated, and the demand for DOTP warmed up. In the future, the demand for rising DOTP costs will recover. It is expected that DOTP will rise in a volatile way in the future.