1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on November 28th was around 1548 yuan/ton. On November 27th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1556 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1880 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, with sulfur prices rising by 1.24% and downstream caprolactam prices rising by 1.15%. Although the upstream sulfur and downstream caprolactam prices of sodium metabisulfite have increased, it cannot cover the situation of limited transactions in the sodium metabisulfite market, and the price of sodium metabisulfite is weak. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading of sodium metabisulfite market is light, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3675 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% from the beginning of the week price of 3668.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite remains tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease of temperature in the north, the fluorite supply has decreased, and the fluorite market.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices temporarily stable, refrigerant market rises

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton recently. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In November, hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised their prices, which boosted the trend of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a continuous increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. Overall, the domestic fluorite market is fluctuating at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, aniline has fallen twice recently, with a magnitude of 300 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton respectively, and the price has fallen near the cost line. Recently, the production of aniline has increased, and at the same time, a certain factory’s aniline plant has plans to restart. Downstream companies are cautious about entering the market, and the flow of aniline is not smooth. In order to stimulate the flow of goods, prices have continued to decline. After the decline, the market atmosphere has improved, and the factory has raised prices. It is expected that in the short term, there will be limited room for further decline in the price of aniline, and it will operate weakly and consolidate.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.96% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on November 10th. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, the supply of isooctanol decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply of isooctanol has decreased and demand has remained stable. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen.

Reduced supply of isooctanol

The operating load of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has decreased. Lihua Yi Enterprise’s octanol equipment has been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the supply of isooctanol in the market and increased support for its upward trend.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the DOP price was 9438.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9238.75 yuan/ton on November 10th. The demand for plasticizer DOP is stable, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and rises. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers is stable. The demand support for isooctanol still exists.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that the operating load of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, the supply of isooctanol has decreased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol has increased; Downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a high level, and the demand for isooctanol is stable. In the future, with the resumption of production and sufficient supply of isooctanol, the supply and demand of isooctanol will be relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol will stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 15, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6900 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.70%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early November, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed an upward trend. The price of n-butanol has been rising from 6900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to around 7500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.7% in the first half of the month. On November 15th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region was around 7300-7700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Rising Market Trend

In terms of demand: In the first half of the year, the overall demand performance of the downstream market for n-butanol was good, downstream users ushered in phased stocking, new transactions for n-butanol improved, and the overall market atmosphere was boosted. The demand side provided upward support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of supply: At the beginning of the month, the supply of n-butanol showed stable performance, with smooth transmission between supply and demand and little supply pressure. Subsequently, the n-butanol plant of a large factory in Shandong was shut down for maintenance, and the overall supply in the field became tight. The supply side supported the market trend and continued to adjust upwards.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ November 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7700 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7700 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8000-8100 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7900-8000 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, there is a temporary production stoppage and reduction phenomenon on the supply side, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has improved. The supply and demand transmission is still good. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been raised twice this week, by 200 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline has risen to 9400 yuan/ton, with an acceptance of 9550 yuan/ton. It is reported that the recent improvement in the shipment of aniline, coupled with low prices in the early stage and increased downstream purchasing willingness, has led to smooth destocking of factories. There are plans for factories to start production in the future, and supply is expected to increase. It is expected that the short-term upward space for aniline will be limited, and the main focus will be on digesting the increase.

The construction peak season of Golden September and Silver October saw an overall improvement in supply and demand fundamentals. In early October, the asphalt market was dominated, but due to limited demand and weak cost factors, the asphalt market experienced a slight decline at the end of the month. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3390 yuan/ton on October 1st, and reached 3522 yuan/ton on October 31st, an increase of 3.89%.

From a cost perspective, the weakening of geopolitical risks, the decline in oil prices, and the neutral fundamentals provide support for prices, and it is expected that the macro level will be boosted. In the short term, an oil price of $72 per barrel is reasonable, and we will focus on macro policies and the recovery of OPEC+production cuts in the future.

In terms of supply, the output in November was 2.35 million tons, an increase of 30000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 430000 tons compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the actual production in October will be around 2.1 million tons, and the actual production in September will be 2 million tons. The average daily production in October was 75000 tons. Due to the significant impact of the resumption of production by Qilu Petrochemical and Beihai Refining, as well as the increase in production by Jinling Petrochemical and Ke Petrochemical, the main focus of production increase is on the main business.

From a demand perspective, there were varying degrees of destocking in different regions in October. The overall inventory reached 1.983 million tons, lower than the average of the past five years.

From a seasonal perspective, November showed a downward trend, and it is expected that the supply-demand imbalance will ease and the price range will shift downwards; From the perspective of Business Society, the short-term supply-demand mismatch provides support for prices, and it is expected that the supply-demand contradiction will ease and the oscillation range will shift downwards from November.