1、 Price data

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7838.25 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7850.75 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7322.50 yuan / ton, down 4.09% from 7635.00 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 28, the naphtha commodity index was 96.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.39% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 129.02% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of hydrotreated naphtha in the local refinery increased first and then decreased. The price of straight run naphtha fell sharply. The refinery will reduce the price and ship the goods. The demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal is weak, and the transaction is general.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose first and then declined this week. U.S. President Biden sought ways to reduce gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, repeatedly mentioned the idea of releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves, and called on China, Japan and South Korea to release crude oil reserves. As soon as the news came out, crude oil prices fell sharply. On the other hand, at present, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) production increase policy is still relatively conservative, and they still do not show the willingness to expand the scale of production increase under the pressure from the United States. In particular, the market is worried that if the US government continues to suppress oil prices and make oil prices fall sharply, OPEC + may even consider stopping production increase to offset the adverse impact of the decline in oil prices on the recovery of global oil capital expenditure.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 6370.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6210.20 yuan / ton on November 22, up 2.57%. Mixed xylene rose this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6100.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6020.00 yuan / ton on November 22, up 1.33%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 28th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there are 8 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.25%), WTI crude oil (3.23%) and asphalt (2.77%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 10.84%), coke (- 7.05%) and petroleum coke (- 7.01%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the refinery has cut prices and shipped goods recently, the demand for olefins and aromatics at the terminal is weak, the transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may focus on the weak.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell in November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 26, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 15966.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream caprolactam, the price fell this month. During the month, some enterprises restarted caprolactam units, increased supply and increased inventories of enterprises and society. The price of raw material pure benzene is weak and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream enterprises just need to purchase. Near the end of the month, the spot price of caprolactam has fallen near the cost line, the price stabilization attitude of enterprises is obvious, and the decline began to tighten.

The price of upstream caprolactam fell recently, and the cost support of PA6 collapsed. The overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants is more than 60%, and the current profitability of polymerization plants is general. In terms of demand, double limit and other environmental protection policies affect the load of end enterprises. In addition, the current inventory position of PA6 of downstream users is acceptable, the purchase intention is not high, and there is a lot of wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam continued to decline in November, weakening the cost of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 continued to fall. The terminal demand is weak, the on-site transaction is poor, the buyer’s wait-and-see mood is increased, and the bearish mood in the future is increased. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still fall slightly in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2844.44 yuan / ton, up 1.99% from 2788.89 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.70% year-on-year.

The price of fluorite rose this week. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the order situation of fluorite was ok, the installation operation of merchants in the venue declined, the supply of fluorite in the venue was slightly tight, and the price in the venue rose. With the decrease of temperature, some fluorite manufacturers installed parking devices, and the operation of mines and flotation in the yard declined. The delivery of goods in the fluorite yard was ok, and the price trend of fluorite market rose. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price remained high this week, and the downstream terminal mainly purchased on demand. As of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has risen.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remained at a high level. As of the weekend, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 14010 yuan / ton. The high market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite increased. The price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products has dropped, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field is still not high. Recently, the sales of the automobile industry are normal, and the refrigerant market has dropped at a high level, but the decline is not large. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchases on demand, and the trend has declined. The overall trend of the refrigerant market has dropped, and the price of chloroform has fallen, which has reduced the cost of the refrigerant industry. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is declining. The start-up of major mainstream refrigerant manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is not improved. The demand in R22 market application field is reduced, and enterprises reduce prices for sales. The price of mainstream manufacturers has a downward trend. Up to now, the market price of R22 is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan / ton. The domestic price of R134a fell slightly, the price of trichloroethylene remained, the cost was under pressure, the phenomenon of closing and stopping the report of R134a increased, the market price was slightly corrected, and the trading focus changed little. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 48000-53000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is mostly profitable, the downstream refrigerant market has a downward trend, and the fluorite price rises due to tight supply.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has a downward trend. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is still tight, but the price of hydrofluoric acid remains high, and the supply of fluorite in the field has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the market price of fluorite is still supported by positive support in the short term, and the market price trend is dominated by a slight increase.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the market price trend of p-xylene this week was temporarily stable. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 69.77%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend remains stable. The closing price of international crude oil fell, and the external price of PX fell. As of the 18th, the closing prices were US $884-886 / T FOB Korea and US $902-904 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia was more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia was normal, and the external closing price of PX fell slightly, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The crude oil price trend fell this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.41/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.24/barrel. Macroscopically, under the background of the continuous strengthening of the US dollar, it dragged down the reconstruction of oil price valuation. More importantly, some changes have been expected in the fundamentals of supply and demand. Therefore, the previous strong energy demand and tight supply have gradually changed into the improvement of supply and demand caused by the repeated epidemic in Europe and the expectation of the global release of oil reserves, and the oil price has continued to fall. As the Russian pipeline Beixi No. 2 has changed again, the delay and the decline in transmission volume are expected to lead to another surge in European natural gas prices. Crude oil supply is expected to remain tight. In the later stage, it still depends on whether the release of global oil reserves can make up for the gap, and the supply side variables are still changing. In addition, there will be a long short game in demand. In the process of global economic recovery, energy demand is still strong. However, repeated outbreaks and rising inflation in the United States will also suppress demand. The decline of oil price has a certain negative impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price trend fell this week. As of the 19th, the average PTA market price was 4700-4800 yuan / ton, and the PTA price fell by 3.8% this week. The PTA Market of raw materials declined. The 1.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical failed to restart last weekend. It is planned to restart around November 19. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at about 79%. The inventory of production enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. At present, PTA inventory continues to increase, and the social inventory is about 3.7245 million tons. At present, the power rationing restrictions in many places in China have been cancelled. Although some conditions have improved, the operating rate of polyester plants has not rebounded rapidly as expected, and remained at about 83% as of November 18. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the main textile bases. The comprehensive start-up rate of looms is around 66%. The start-up of polyester and weaving is still at a low level compared with the first half of the year. The procurement enthusiasm is not high. The market situation of the textile industry is poor, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is slightly lower, but the cost side support begins to weaken, the downstream PTA and textile market is poor, PTA stocks are accumulated, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected that there is room for the market price of p-xylene to fall in the later stage.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 2620.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2562.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.19%, an increase of 41.31% over the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market has twists and turns this week, with an overall downward trend.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2750 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7403.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.95%, a year-on-year increase of 114.63% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1086.25 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 76.41% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell sharply. The quotation fell from 4896.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 4380.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 10.55%, a year-on-year increase of 43.61% over the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 18400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.71%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: the demand is general, and the agricultural demand ends; The industry is just in need, the recommendation of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the downstream compound fertilizer plant has not started to purchase urea on a large scale, the inventory of melamine enterprises is under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation is weakened. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, the supply decreases, and the daily output of urea is less than 130000 tons. On the whole, the urea cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is general, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced.

The future price of urea is bearish

In late November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period and the supply is tight, but the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, and the future urea market price may fluctuate and fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.81%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 11100 yuan / ton, which decreased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 11000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 11000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7897.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.83 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.75%, up 9.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde due to the impact of supply and demand. From the downstream industrial chain, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua neopentyl glycol this weekend is 18000 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly and the spot market was tight, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of isobutyraldehyde market in late November may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may decline slightly in the short term under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market price remained stable this week, and the average price of industrial grade glycine remained stable at 29666 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the glycine market continues to stop reporting. The quotation of industrial glycine in Hebei is 35000 yuan / ton, mainly based on detailed discussion of actual orders. Shandong Hongtai resumes driving, can receive new orders, and will not make an offer for the time being. The market turnover is acceptable, the downstream is affected by double limit, the commencement is reduced, but the glycine procurement is relatively stable.

Downstream products: this week, the price of glyphosate technical drug exceeded 80000 yuan / ton, and the maximum price rose to 85000 yuan / ton. Affected by the double limit, glyphosate enterprises did not start enough, and the overall production capacity decreased. Although the prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus, acetic acid and have been corrected to a certain extent, the tight demand for glyphosate is difficult to change. Enterprise orders are scheduled to the end of the year, and the price is expected to continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current demand for glycine is supported, the price remains high, and the short-term market is mainly stable.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market showed a downward trend today (November 18). The average price in the spot market was 4789 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from the previous day and up 47.07% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 4834, down 144, or 2.89%.

In terms of units, the 1.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical failed to restart last weekend. It is planned to restart around November 19. At present, the operating rate of the industry remains around 79%. The inventory of production enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. At present, PTA inventory continues to increase, and the social inventory is about 3.7245 million tons.

Crude oil prices plummeted to a six week low after the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned against oversupply, compounded by the resurgence of the European epidemic, the surge of new cases exacerbated the expectation of lower market demand and put pressure on oil prices. On November 17, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.36/barrel and that of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.28/barrel.

At present, the power rationing restrictions in many places in China have been cancelled. Although some conditions have improved, the operating rate of polyester plants has not rebounded rapidly as expected, and remained at about 83% as of November 17. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the main textile bases, the comprehensive starting rate of looms is around 66%, and the start-up of polyester and weaving is still at a low level compared with the first half of the year. The price remained stable today. Polyester POY (150D / 48F), a mainstream factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, quoted 7450-7900 yuan / ton, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood.

Business analysts believe that the short-term crude oil market is anxious, the supply-demand game is dominant, and the cost support has weakened. In addition, the performance of terminal demand orders is poor, and PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle. However, under the background of low processing cost, the factory has a maintenance plan. One PTA production line of Hengli Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in the near future, involving a production capacity of 2.5 million tons. Therefore, on the whole, PTA prices will remain narrow downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell this week. On November 5, the price of mixed xylene was 6340 yuan / ton; On Friday (November 12), the price was 6220 yuan / ton, down 1.89% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 79.77%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fluctuated on the cost side, the guidance was not strong, the market focus turned to the demand side, the downstream demand was weak, coupled with the increase of cargo supply, mixed xylene continued to decline during the week. In the middle of the week, affected by the weather, the logistics in Shandong was blocked and the price rose slightly.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market rose slightly this week and fell broadly. On Friday (November 12), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 790.5 US dollars / ton, down 22 US dollars / ton or 2.71% month on week compared with November 5; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $817 / T, down US $20 / T or 2.39% month on month on November 5.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase, the U.S. dollar jumped, and OPEC + lowered its oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter, suppressing oil prices. However, the end of international travel restrictions in the United States and the adoption of the trillion dollar infrastructure bill gave a positive boost to the market. The demand for crude oil may grow, and the market is worried about supply or shortage. On November 5, Brent fell 0.57 USD / barrel, or 0.69%; WTI fell US $0.48/barrel, or 0.59%.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to stabilize this week, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 69.77% over the same period last year. As of November 12, the closing prices in Asia were US $905-907 / T FOB Korea and US $923-925 / T CFR China.

In the ox market, the ox price in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (November 12), the ox price in East China was 7200 yuan / ton, an increase of 63.64% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong fell this week. On November 12, the price was 7810.8 yuan / ton, down 0.96% from last week and up 48.81% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, tight crude oil supply still exists, short-term long short game, and the trend of crude oil fluctuates. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil fluctuated, the upward momentum weakened, and the support for mixed xylene weakened. Downstream PX device maintenance, demand softened again. On the whole, the stalemate of mixed xylene negotiation is still, and it is possible to continue to decline. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

The lead market (11.5-11.12) surged this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15475 yuan / ton last weekend and 15500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.16% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The lead price shown in the figure above has maintained a volatile trend for four consecutive weeks.

The trend of Lun lead market fluctuated this week. The mainstream range was between 2310-2385 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell, and the metal market was boosted and rose slightly. Later, as the US dollar market stopped falling and rebounded, the base metals began to operate under pressure, and Lun lead began to fall. In terms of inventory, LME inventory fell by about 600 tons during the week, which partially boosted the market. During the week, the trend of Shanghai lead fluctuated. It rose at the beginning of the week and fluctuated in the middle of the week. At the weekend, it was boosted by low inventory and other positive factors, and rose again.

The spot market mainly follows the trend of Shanghai lead and is dominated by shocks. At present, the overall inventory of lead is still high, and the impact of power restriction policy on the overall market is gradually weak. The demand brought by storage enterprises’ sprint for annual tasks basically offsets the output growth brought by re production manufacturers. Although supported by downstream demand, it is still dominated by consumption of current inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were silver (5.31%), aluminum (3.02%) and nickel (2.76%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 9.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 10.61%), antimony (- 5.13%) and praseodymium (- 0.92%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.57%, and most of the nonferrous metals markets rose.

The impact of power rationing policy has been ignored. The recovery of primary lead enterprises is good, the overall supply side is good, the recent demand recovery of downstream storage enterprises is good, and the supply and demand is good, but the high overall inventory is still the main factor restricting the rise of lead price. In the past month, under the restriction of demand recovery but high inventory, the lead price has continued to fluctuate. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of November 15, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 25666.67 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 26333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (8th), a decrease of 2.53% during the cycle and an increase of 81.18% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of November 15, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 50000 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan lower than the average price of 50666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (8th), a decrease of 1.32% in the cycle and 229.67% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of refrigerant R22 fell slightly and the market weakened. Last week, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose steadily and slightly, but the chloroform market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, coupled with the continued sluggish demand and the poor shipment of cargo holders, so they began to reduce the price. The ex factory prices of mainstream enterprises such as Juhua and Dongyue have not been greatly adjusted yet, and still hold the previous quotation, but the market focus began to decline. Up to now, the market quotation of R22 is still in the range of 23500-28000 yuan / ton, about 24500-27000 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 23500-25000 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 24500-25000 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 24000-25000 yuan / ton in Jiangsu. The prices in various places are stable.

Recently, the price of refrigerant R134a fell slightly and the market weakened. Last week, the price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, rose steadily and slightly, with acceptable support, but there was no obvious cash withdrawal in the auto market. There was insufficient gas purchase in the downstream, the demand side continued to be weak, and there were few high price transactions. The ex factory price of mainstream enterprises remained high. Some dealers reduced their quotation significantly, with the price as low as 45000 yuan / ton. They reduced the price sharply to seek good sales, and the focus shifted downward. Up to now, the market price of R134a is in the range of 45000-55000 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is about 45000-51000 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan is about 45000-46000 yuan / ton, and the price in Jiangsu is about 45000-51000 yuan / ton. The prices in various places are gradually reduced.

In terms of raw materials, on November 15, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was tight, the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was higher, the recent price trend of fluorite was stable, which had a certain supporting impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, but the overall trend was stable, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, and the actual demand changed little, Recently, the refrigerant market has a downward trend, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may be stable.

Methane chloride, according to the data monitoring of business society, the trichloromethane market fell sharply this week (11.8-11.12), and the price was 5175 yuan / ton as of November 12. Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the commencement of methane chloride unit is higher than that in the early stage, and the cost is low. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business community refrigerant analysts believe that the current demand is poor, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market trading is negative, the price reduction sales profit shipment, and the market focus moves downward. It is expected that R22 and R134a may have further downward expectations in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP stabilized after a slight drop this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price fluctuated slightly this week and stabilized after falling, and the overall DOP market fell weakly this week. As of November 12, the DOP price was 12025 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton or 1.64% from 12225 yuan / ton on November 5 last weekend; The DOP market was weak and fell.

Isooctanol prices fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol fell slightly this week. Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise. This week, affected by the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas, the cost of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOP increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the phthalic anhydride market changed strongly this week, and the phthalic anhydride price fell sharply. The market of phthalic anhydride is general, the manufacturer’s operation is low, the delivery situation is general, the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride is insufficient, the cost of DOP decreases, and the downward pressure of DOP increases.

PVC prices stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the bank’s desire rose. The PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise quotation was tentatively increased, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, and the focus began to move upward. PVC market rose, which was good for DOP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that the support of DOP raw materials is not available this week. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fallen, the cost of DOP has fallen, the downward pressure of DOP has increased, the price of PVC has stopped falling and rebounded, the demand for DOP has improved, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers has warmed up, and the upward momentum of DOP has increased. Generally speaking, DOP costs have decreased and demand has warmed up. It is expected that DOP prices will stabilize in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China decreased from 7433.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1833.33 yuan / ton, down 24.66%, up 93.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell sharply this week.

Upstream cost support weakened and downstream demand fell sharply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 5300 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell 2200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion quoted 5500 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 1700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quoted 6000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan fell sharply this week. The quotation of Shenmu small material this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of Sinoma this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of big materials this weekend is 1900 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials fell sharply and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell sharply this week. The PVC quotation this week decreased from 10300.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 9340.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 9.32%, a year-on-year increase of 27.29%. PVC prices fell sharply this week, the market fell, and the enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. On the whole, PVC prices this week had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The downstream market went down, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the future

In the middle and early days of November, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell sharply, and the cost support of calcium carbide weakened. The downstream PVC market also began to fall sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of November.

Recently, the trading atmosphere of viscose staple fiber continues to be weak, and the downward pressure on the price is great. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers has not changed yet. Some manufacturers are bearish on the future market and reduce prices to promote sales. According to the price monitoring of business society, as of November 10, 2021, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 14320 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week.

Upstream staple fiber and pulp Market: the load of viscose staple fiber industry continues to operate at a low level, superimposing factors such as pulp capacity expansion, and some dissolved pulp is in a wait-and-see state. There are few enquiries for domestic dissolved pulp, the trading volume is under pressure, and the price is loose again with the imported pulp. As of November 9, 2021, the market price of coniferous wood pulp is 5100 yuan / ton and that of broad-leaved wood pulp is 4510 yuan / ton.

The trading atmosphere of cotton yarn in the downstream turned weak, the demand in the downstream terminal was weak, and the operating rate of the industry increased rapidly, resulting in a negative decline in prices. As of November 10, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19166 yuan / ton, which is about 100 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Recently, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the supply expectation has increased, the downstream demand is sluggish, the trading atmosphere has weakened, the viscose staple fiber inventory of downstream yarn mills is OK, and the purchase demand for viscose staple fiber is not urgent. Business analysts expect that the downward pressure on the short-term viscose staple fiber market is large, and the price may continue to loosen and decline.

In November, the overall dimethyl ether Market in Henan Province mainly fell, but the rising market was ushered in on the 1st and 8th respectively. At present, although the fluctuation range is small, the market transaction atmosphere is better than that in the early stage. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4595.00 yuan / ton on November 1 and 4442.50 yuan / ton on November 8, with a decline of 3.32% and 6.33% compared with October 1.

As of November 8, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% November 8th 4790 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% November 8th 4740 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% November 8th 4450-4470 yuan / ton

At the beginning of November, the dimethyl ether Market as a whole showed an up-down-up trend, but the overall fluctuation range of the market was limited and the price change was not obvious. Recently, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market has improved compared with the previous period, and the price has returned to the upward trend. Henan’s main production areas began to raise the factory quotation slightly at the weekend, and continued the small rise route on Monday. Some manufacturers in the main production areas of Henan stopped for maintenance, and the reduced supply has brought some support to the market. In terms of demand, the temperature continues to decline, and the demand is expected to be better. In addition, with the sharp reduction of dimethyl ether price, the downstream mentality is improved, and more restocking is given priority to. The overall transaction atmosphere in the market is mild, and the manufacturers slightly increase the ex factory price.

Recently, the methanol market continues to decline, mainly due to the low price of raw coal affected by policies. Although the coal price has stopped falling, the policy pricing is still, and the coal price is low. The news that some MTO devices are planned to restart this week has not been fulfilled, the positive expectations have been dashed, and the mentality of some operators is lack of support, while the traditional downstream demand enterprises are just focusing on demand, and there is no obvious large-scale situation. Methanol market fell significantly. The falling cost has brought some bad news to the dimethyl ether Market.

At present, the raw material methanol market continues to weaken and the cost support is insufficient. However, driven by the rise of international crude oil, the civil liquefied gas market stops falling and goes up, which brings a certain boost to the dimethyl ether Market. Some manufacturers in Henan market stop for maintenance and reduce the market supply. The downstream mentality has improved, mainly replenishment into the market. The manufacturer’s mentality is strong, and the ex factory quotation has been slightly increased. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may fluctuate upward in the short term.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on November 5:

Qingdao refinery offers 5900 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 6400 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 6400 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 6250 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6500 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 6450 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6500 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 6251 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 6250 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 6200 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + has no plan to increase production. Saudi Arabia raised the official price of crude oil, and the international oil price rebounded significantly on Friday. Data released by Baker Hughes on the 5th showed that the number of active oil rigs in the United States increased by 6 month on month and 224 year-on-year this week. The increase of US crude oil production and the late resumption of Iran nuclear negotiations may be bad for oil prices.

Today, Jingbo Petrochemical xylene increased by 55 yuan / ton.

Crude oil prices rebounded last Friday, boosting related bulk commodities. Coupled with the rebound in gasoline prices, mixed xylene is operating at a high price today, and the operators are cautious.

DBP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, DBP prices rose first and then fell this week, and the overall DBP market was weak and fell. As of November 4, the price of DBP was 11766.67 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from 11900 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29); Overall, the price of DBP fluctuated and fell this week, and the DBP market fell.

Butanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. As of November 4, the average ex factory price of n-butanol was 10133.33 yuan / ton, down 1.94% from 10333.33 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29). The market price of n-butanol has dropped to a low level. Downstream users mainly replenish small and medium-sized orders, the market demand is still weak, and the price of n-butanol fluctuated slightly. N-butanol market weak adjustment.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride fell this week. Affected by the rise of the price of phthalic anhydride, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost support of phthalic anhydride still existed, the start-up of plasticizer manufacturers rebounded slightly, the demand for phthalic anhydride increased, the strong support of phthalic anhydride market remained, the price of plasticizer fell, and the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride increased.

PVC fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC price fell sharply this week. As of November 4, the average price of PVC was 9470 yuan / ton, down 8.06% from 10300 yuan / ton last weekend; PVC prices fell sharply this week, plasticizer demand remained weak, downstream customers of plasticizer had poor purchasing enthusiasm, and DBP prices fell under great pressure.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DBP data analyst at business agency, believes that DBP prices fell slightly this week, and DBP prices fell. In terms of raw materials, the prices of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride fell slightly, the cost of DBP decreased, and the downward pressure on DBP increased; In terms of demand, PVC is still weak, and the demand for plasticizer is declining. Generally speaking, DBP cost support is absent and demand is declining. It is expected that DBP price will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 3): 838.33 yuan / ton

On November 3, the market price of domestic sulfuric acid decreased slightly, which was 5 yuan / ton lower than the quotation on November 1, a decrease of 0.59%, and a year-on-year increase of 110.90%. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently, and the cost support is good. The market of bromine and formic acid in the downstream has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream demand is general, and the rising power of sulfuric acid is insufficient.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in China may fluctuate slightly, and the average quotation price is about 820 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market situation of ammonium chloride rose in October. The price at the beginning of the month was around 1135 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was around 1205 yuan / ton, up 6.17%.

In October, the prices of urea and raw liquid ammonia continued to rise, giving strong support to ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of October 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 5183 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.87% over the price of 4850 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest increase in the month was 9.28%; As of October 31, the domestic urea price was 3080 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.35% over the price of 2816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with the highest increase of 10.35% in the month.

In October, the downstream demand for ammonium chloride was still weak, the construction of compound fertilizer industry was still around 30%, the winter storage market in Northeast China started slowly, and the overall purchasing atmosphere of the market was weak. However, the start-up of the joint alkali enterprise is around 60%, the enterprise inventory is low, and the supply is supported by ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: ammonium chloride analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of ammonium chloride is high supported by supply and cost. In the medium and long term, if the operation of Lianhe alkali is increased or the price of raw materials falls, the price of ammonium chloride will fall. The price of ammonium chloride rose tentatively.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride decreased this month, and the quotation decreased from 3270 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.62%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 48.21%. On October 31, the commodity index of potassium chloride was 91.75, the same as yesterday, down 11.62% from the highest point of 103.81 in the cycle (2021-10-12), and up 57.51% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2012 to now).

In terms of domestic potassium: the largest producer of potassium chloride and leading enterprise of potassium fertilizer in China, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is fully open, and the price of potassium chloride has decreased from 3270 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the month. After the competent authorities interviewed the chemical fertilizer enterprises, the price of domestic potassium chloride gradually fell due to the influence of the policy of ensuring the supply and price of chemical fertilizer. The price of Zangger holdings is relatively consistent with that of salt lake group. Market news says that the new price may also maintain stability next month; The factory quotation of 57% powder of Qinghai small factory is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is tight.

Port potassium: at the end of the month, the price of port potassium gradually increased. The high-end price of 62% white potassium at the port has been about 4000 yuan / ton. Although the market transaction is limited, it is related to the lack of supply itself, which is about 200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month.

In terms of border trade potassium: at the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium has mostly reached 3600-3650 yuan / ton, an increase of about 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Guarantee supply and stable price of domestic potash fertilizer, mainly temporarily stable in the future

The salt lake and zangge are under normal operation and the unit is in good operation, but the downstream demand is good and the supply of goods is relatively tight. From the perspective of agricultural demand, the autumn fertilizer market is ending with slight procurement, while the winter storage market has not been started yet, and traders are not active in taking goods. From the perspective of industrial demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream market of potassium chloride is not high, and it is mainly just needed to purchase. While the international potash fertilizer has risen sharply, the domestic potash fertilizer may still rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may fluctuate slightly in the short term, focusing on the news related to large contracts.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the average price of acetic acid was 6760 yuan / ton on October 29. Compared with the price of 7240 yuan / ton on October 23, it was reduced by 480 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of 6.63% and 24.30% month on month. As of October 29, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region October 22nd October 29th Price rise and fall

South China 7300-7400 yuan / ton 7000-7100 yuan / ton – 300/-300

North China 7100-7350 yuan / ton 6700-6900 yuan / ton – 400/-450

Shandong region 7100-7300 yuan / ton 6650-6750 yuan / ton – 450/-550

Jiangsu region 7000-7100 yuan / ton 6700-6900 yuan / ton – 300/-200

Zhejiang region 7100-7200 yuan / ton 6800-7000 yuan / ton – 300/-200

The domestic acetic acid market is weak and downward, the on-site acetic acid enterprises have many devices, stable operation and increased inventory, while the downstream is affected by limited power production, the downstream start-up is low, there is no significant increase in market demand, the market purchase is still rational, and the on-site trading is light, resulting in the continuous increase of acetic acid inventory, coupled with the slow consumption of market supply, the domestic acetic acid enterprises in order to maintain shipment, The quotation keeps falling.

In the downstream, the market of ethyl acetate continued to decline this week. As of October 29, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was 9675.00 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.85% during the week. Most of the manufacturers’ devices operated normally, the enterprise inventory increased, and the market supply was sufficient. However, the downstream industry was affected by power restriction, the demand was general, the transaction volume was insufficient, and the delivery speed of ethyl acetate manufacturers decreased, The market is weak and down.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, in terms of supply in the domestic market, many manufacturers’ devices operate stably, the supply of goods in the acetic acid market is sufficient, the purchase in the downstream is still rational, and the contradiction between supply and demand will not be significantly improved in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be stable for the time being, and pay attention to the market transaction.