Monthly Archives: March 2019

Domestic price trend of p-xylene declined on March 28 in China

On March 27, the PX commodity index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

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Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has declined, the on-site plant Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily, the Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50%, the Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation, and other devices have been running steadily for the time being. Prices are declining. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 27, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by US$1/ton. The closing price is US$1016-1018/ton FOB Korea and US$1035-1037/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the intra market price of p-xylene dropped sharply.

On March 27, the price of WTI crude oil in May fell to $59.41 per barrel, a decline of $0.53. Brent crude oil in May fell to $67.83 per barrel, a decline of $0.14. The fluctuation of crude oil price has little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market is lower affected by supply. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price fluctuation on 28 days, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6500-6650 yuan/ton, as of 28 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, downstream production and sales rate remains volatile, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that later PX market prices will be slightly lower.

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March 25 Ammonium Nitrate Market Price Trend Stable

On March 24, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

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Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 25th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 25th day, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little influence on the ammonium nitrate market, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, up to 25th day, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3450 yuan/ton. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream is not good, and the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period is expected to be shocked.

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Domestic sulphur prices in China were stable this week (3.18-3.22)

Price data

 

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market price was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic granular sulfur ex-factory price was about 1,143.33 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average domestic granular sulfur ex-factory price was about 1,143.33 yuan/ton, and the price was stable within the week.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the sulphur market is mainly weak, the buyers and sellers are deadlocked, the real information is scarce, the interest of terminal enterprises in purchasing is low, and there is a lack of information guidance on the spot, and the negotiation atmosphere is weak. This week, refineries in various regions in China showed different performances. Shandong maintained stable operation. The prices of refineries in North China and East China rose 20-80 yuan/ton. Prices in most regions increased slightly by 10-80 yuan/ton. As of the 22nd, Sinopec’s price of sulphur in Shandong was stable. The mainstream price of solid sulphur was 1190-1230 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulphur was 190-1180 yuan/ton. The price of sulphur in the region is stable. The mainstream price of solid sulphur is between 1030 and 1100 yuan/ton, and that of liquid sulphur is between 1000 and 1120 yuan/ton.

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Industry chain: The price trend of downstream sulfuric acid has been slightly reduced, with a price of 357.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 345.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a drop of 3.5%. This week, the bromine market has been running steadily and the average price of bromine has remained around 35,000 yuan/ton during the week, up 26.74% from the same period last year. In the short run, the sulfuric acid market has little fluctuation. Considering the arrival of centralized maintenance plan for sulfuric acid enterprises or the possibility of flexible price increase, the sulfur market upstream will also be flexibly adjusted.

3. Future Market Forecast

Sulphur analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the supply and demand performance of the market is not obvious, there is no news guide, downstream buyers with insufficient documentary orders mainly to consume, demand is limited, in the short term, the sulfur market will continue to be vulnerable to consolidation.

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Aluminum Price Back to 14000 Line

Aluminum prices bottomed out in 2018, hovering at year-round lows, with a range of 13,450-15,000 yuan/ton. In the first nine months, the price of aluminium has been running in a “W” trend. In the fourth quarter, the price of aluminium has been falling monotonously.

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The average price of aluminium ingot market continued to be weak in the first ten days of January 2019. On January 15, the average price of aluminium ingot market fell to 13223.33 yuan/ton, which was the lowest level in the past two years. Then the price of aluminium ingot began to rise steadily. According to the data of business associations, the average price of aluminium (99.70) market as of March 21 was 14036.67 yuan/ton, up 5.59% compared with the average price of 13350 yuan/ton on the first working day of February 12. The price rose by 6.15% on January 15.

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It is reported that due to the sharp fall in aluminium prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, high-cost aluminium factories suffer serious losses. Some domestic aluminium factories have gradually reduced production and pressure, and the phenomenon of industry independent capacity removal is obvious. Among them, the provinces with the most output reduction are Henan (533,000 tons), Gansu (500,000 tons) and Qinghai (285,000 tons). The common problem in these areas is the high cost of electricity price, which in turn raises the overall production cost, and is also the area where price drops are the first to be hit.

According to data released Wednesday by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), global raw aluminium production fell to 492,000 tons in February, compared with 5411,000 tons revised in January. China’s output is estimated to fall to 2.78 million tons in February and to 3.07 million tons in January.

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The data show that at the beginning of this year, the capacity removal effect of aluminium ingots is obvious, which provides the motive force for the rebound of low aluminium prices in supply and demand. Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable or continue to improve in the near future.

China’s domestic price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on March 19

On March 18, the PX Commodity Index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

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Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 18, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 18 US dollars per ton. The closing price is US$106-1068 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1085-1087 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a positive and negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 18, the price of WTI crude oil in May rose to $59.09 per barrel, an increase of $0.57. The price of Brent crude oil in May fell to $67.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.38. The price of crude oil rose slightly, which had little effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene was stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 19th, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6500-6600 yuan/ton, as of the 19th domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, downstream production and sales rate has risen, but PTA market prices are lower, it is expected that PX market prices will remain volatile in the later period.

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This week’s narrow finishing trend in maleic anhydride market (3.11-3.15)

Price Trend

Business Club: Narrow Ranking Trend of Maleic Anhydride Market this week (3.11-3.15)

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According to the data of business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 7600.00 yuan/ton (all including tax), and the trend of weak consolidation of the offer.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole is in a weak state of consolidation.

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Industry chain: Firstly, the domestic unsaturated resin factories resumed slowly this week, the downstream demand was insufficient, resin factories still mainly digested inventory, the domestic maleic anhydride market was narrowly sorted, and negotiations were weak; secondly, the mainstream factories were mainly vulnerable to sorting out quotations. The fluctuation of crude oil in the periphery affects the intra-field mentality. Crude Oil supports the market. The pure benzene of raw material is loosened. The n-butane performance of raw material is strong. In the short run, the profit margins of benzene and butane maleic anhydride remain stable. At the same time, Dongying Code and Qifa are still parking, and the start-up rate is expected to rise next week. Finally, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, logistics recovery is slow, and factories are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is likely to remain tidy in the near future, and the overall price may be the same as this week, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

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China’s domestic price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on March 14

On March 13, the PX Commodity Index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

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Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 13, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 9 US dollars per ton. The closing price was US$1091-1093 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1112 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a positive and negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 13, the price of WTI crude oil in April rose to 58.26 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.39 U.S. dollars. The price of Brent crude oil in May rose to 67.55 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.88 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined 14 days, the average price of East China is around 6500-6700 yuan/ton, as of 14 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, downstream production and sales rate has risen, but PTA market prices are lower, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

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China’s domestic cyclohexanone market operated steadily on March 13

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 13, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 11066 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was running steadily.

II. Market Analysis

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Products: Cyclohexanone market is running steadily, downstream caprolactam demand for cyclohexanone is general, chemical fiber order price has slightly fallen, solvent market needs to be purchased, high-price transaction is general. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in the North China market is delivered in cash from 1100 to 11200, the mainstream offer in the East China market is delivered in cash from 1130 to 11500, and the mainstream offer in the South China market is delivered in cash from 1160 to 11800.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: Driven by the warming of crude oil and large futures products, the focus of pure benzene negotiations has warmed up slightly. The spot purchase price is 4730 yuan/ton and the sale price is 4750 yuan/ton. Caprolactam: The liquid spot market of caprolactam is temporarily stable. The supply of caprolactam is still acceptable. The downstream polymerization plant just needs to be purchased. The on-site trading atmosphere is general. On the solid side, the middleman still operates with him. The downstream stock consumption is slow and the high-price transaction is not good.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cost-side support is still acceptable, factory spot supply is normal, downstream chemical fiber market high price conflict, price negotiation. Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is mainly weak consolidation.

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China’s Domestic Hydrofluoric Acid Market Trend Shocks on March 12

On March 11, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 98.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.84% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 83.86% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fluctuation, as of the 12th day, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10 816.67 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%, enterprises reflect the current on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, recent on-site goods generally, some enterprises have increased hydrofluoric acid inventory, factory prices remain low, due to recent price shocks in the raw material market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable for the time being. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent upward trend in the raw material market, fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, for hydrofluoric acid has some favorable support, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market shocks.

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Recent downstream refrigerant product units started to rise, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has increased, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price rises to 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has risen, and the delivery market has risen. The domestic market price of R134a has risen slightly, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the improvement of the goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Refrigerant on-site transactions have risen, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate has increased, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand may increase, coupled with the upstream fluorite price has an upward trend, March is the peak season of air conditioning production, the downstream refrigeration industry is expected to rise, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly higher.

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Weak Operation of Epichlorohydrin Market Price on March 11

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data from the business associations’list, as of March 11, epichlorohydrin was 13233.33 yuan/ton (all including taxes), which was 1.49% lower than last week’s No. 4. Today, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in China is 12700-13700 yuan/ton.

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2. Market analysis:

Products: Epichlorohydrin market trend is weak, the delivery atmosphere is flat, factory shipment pressure, inventory increase.

Industry chain: Propylene support in the upstream is weak, and follow-up in the downstream is insufficient, resulting in pressure on factory shipments.

3. Future market forecast:

It is expected that short-term domestic market quotation of epichlorohydrin is mainly weak.

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The decline of cobalt Market slowed down and cobalt price shocks fell (3.4-3.8)

Price Trend

Cobalt prices continued to fall this week, according to data from business associations. As of March 8, the cobalt market quoted 290833.34 yuan/ton, down 3333.32 yuan/ton, or 1.13 percent, from 294166.66 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. The cobalt price continued its downturn and the cobalt price fell.

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II. Market Analysis

Trend analysis

On March 8, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, released the national passenger vehicle market analysis data in February 2019: In February, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 11.7 million units, down 19.0% and 45.9% year-on-year. As a result, the cumulative retail sales of 33.33 million units in January-February this year decreased by 9.8% year-on-year. Among them, in 2019, the new energy vehicles continue to maintain the strong trend of opening the door red. In February, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 74.4% compared with the same period last year, while in January-February, new energy vehicles were wholesaled by 143,000 units, with a cumulative increase of 80,000 units and a cumulative increase of 133.8%. In February, Class A electric vehicles accounted for 53.0% of pure electric vehicles, achieving higher quality growth. Although the new energy automobile policy “weaning” has a negative impact on the growth of new energy automobiles, the current new energy automobiles are still in the rising range, and the overall demand for cobalt for new energy automobiles is still in the rising space.

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International Cobalt Price

On March 8, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $14.7-15.5 per pound, with a price drop of $0.15 per pound; high-grade cobalt quoted $14.6-15.75 per pound, with a price drop of $0.25 per pound; international cobalt price fell, which was bearish on domestic cobalt market, while the decline of international cobalt price slowed down and the pressure of falling cobalt price decreased.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

To sum up, Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that cobalt prices continue to decline this week, but the rate of decline in cobalt prices has slowed down, and the future cobalt prices are mainly stable. The long-term bottom of cobalt price is about 200,000 yuan/ton. Now the market cobalt price has reached 290,000 yuan/ton. It is difficult for cobalt price to fall below the historical low, and there is limited space for reduction of cobalt price. On the demand side, the decline of Smartphone Production and sales offset the growth of new energy vehicles. Generally, there is no new demand growth to bring benefits to the cobalt market, which is bad for the cobalt market. On the supply side, cobalt mining in the international market is still expanding, cobalt supply is increasing, and the overall supply and demand is still in the stage of oversupply. Generally speaking, the decline rate of cobalt price in the future market is bound to slow down. At this stage, it is a stage of market game. It is difficult to determine whether the price will rise or fall, but the falling space is limited. If cobalt price falls below 250,000 yuan/ton, it will encounter greater resistance. At the same time, the cobalt market is not fully motivated to rise. 350,000 yuan/ton is a high level that cobalt price is difficult to reach at this stage.

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Stocks are high and demand downstream is weak.The methanol market continues to suffer from insufficient upward momentum

Recently, the methanol market, which has been silent for one month, has witnessed a wave of growth. As of February 18, the mainstream reference price of domestic methanol market was 2 280 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 3.45% from the beginning of the month. Among them, the market prices of Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia rose by about 50 yuan, Shandong by 20 yuan and Jiangsu by 20 to 40 yuan.

Industry insiders believe that the methanol port inventory has accumulated to a historic high, coupled with weak downstream demand, the methanol market continues to rise powerlessly.

HISTORICAL HIGH PORT STORAGE

Ma Nan, a methanol distributor in Liaoning Province, believes that due to the sharp increase in imports of methanol in the past two months and the impact of port depots and handling during the Spring Festival holidays, the recent accumulation of methanol port stocks has climbed to a high level in the same period in history, putting greater pressure on the market.

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Statistics show that methanol imports reached 717,200 tons in December 2018, an increase of 136,700 tons compared with November, an increase of 23.56% over the same period; methanol imports reached 870,000 tons in January 2019, which exceeded the average level of 150,000 tons in the same period, and port inventory has climbed to a historical high. At present, the inventory of methanol port has exceeded 1 million tons and increased to 1.085 million tons. Affected by the Spring Festival holidays, the speed of discharging and unloading is relatively slow. Some port warehouses carry about 750 tons of goods per day, which is less than 70% of the normal time. In addition, the recent import sources will come to the port one after another, and the port inventory may further increase.

“At present, the inventory of ports in East China is 610,000 tons, and in South China it is the first time that it exceeds 200,000 tons. The total of the two is over 800,000 tons, which is about double the average level in the past five years. The huge accumulated inventory will exert significant pressure on the market and depress the price of methanol to continue to rise. Ma Nan said.

Centralized maintenance has little effect.

In the near future, the methanol market will usher in a period of centralized maintenance at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to decrease. However, in the case of the re-production of methanol plant from natural gas, the commissioning of new plant and the rise of industry start-up rate, the impact of plant overhaul on the market is not significant.

Ma Nan’s analysis shows that with the warming of the weather, the spring overhaul of methanol plants in China is about to begin. In March and April, the overhaul capacity is nearly 10 million tons, and about 80% of the overhaul capacity is concentrated in the Northwest region. Subsequently, in May and June, some installations in Shanghai, Qinghai and other places also had maintenance plans. However, compared with previous years, this year’s maintenance loss capacity is basically flat, and will not have a particularly significant impact on the market.

Internationally, KMI’s 660,000 tons/year plant, Qatar’s 900,000 tons/year plant and Malaysia Petronas Petrochemical Company’s 1.7 million tons/year plant are all in the phase of shutdown or planned maintenance in the near future, and the supply of methanol in the overseas market will be tight. However, foreign equipment maintenance usually first ensures continuous long-term supply, so it has little impact on domestic market supply.

On the other hand, with the end of the peak period of heating gas in winter, a large number of natural gas methanol plants will resume production, which will promote the industry start-up rate.

According to Dong Chao, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute, natural gas methanol plants such as Jiuyuan, Kabella, Chuanwei and Lutianhua will be restarted in early February, with a total capacity increase of about 1.65 million tons per year. And a large number of natural gas methanol plants will be opened in the later period. At the same time, Hengli Petrochemical’s new 500,000 tons/year methanol plant is also planned to be put into operation in the first half of this year, which will further increase the supply of goods. Therefore, although there are domestic equipment routine overhaul support, but the re-production and new production devices will offset the loss of overhaul capacity, overhaul will not have a greater impact on market supply.

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Weak downstream demand performance

At present, just after the Spring Festival holidays, the traditional downstream enterprises of methanol have a slow recovery, limited substantive production and weak demand performance. Emerging demand for methanol to olefins is affected by the market, and the start-up rate is not high, so it is difficult to form a strong support for the methanol market.

Ma Nan introduced that the overall performance of traditional demand is general, and recovery still needs some time. At present, only a few manufacturers in the formaldehyde industry return to the market, the industry start-up rate has dropped sharply, manufacturers mainly wait-and-see finishing, the market atmosphere is still light; dimethyl ether, some plant shutdown or negative operation led to a decline in the start-up rate, some start-up enterprises due to sufficient pre-holiday stock, but also in a centralized digestion of inventory, the overall trend is weak.

In terms of emerging demand, due to the persistent weakness of PP and PE markets, the profit of domestic methanol olefin industry has declined, and the enthusiasm of enterprises has been affected. The average start-up rate of the plant is about 82%, down 0.59 percentage points from last month, which makes it difficult to drive methanol demand.

Generally speaking, the port inventory at the historical high level, the repairing of overhaul capacity by re-production and new plant commissioning, and the overall weakness of downstream demand make the current rising methanol market continue to have insufficient momentum. It is expected that the downward breakthrough of the methanol market will become a probable event.

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China’s domestic fluorite market price declined on March 4

On March 3, the fluorite commodity index was 103.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.81% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 110.34% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

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According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price trend continued to decline, the average domestic fluorite price was 2930 yuan/ton as of the 4th day. Due to the warmer weather, the recent start-up of domestic fluorite devices, the opening of mines and flotation devices, the supply of fluorite in the field increased relatively, but the recent downstream market is not good, the price of fluorite market slightly declined. Recently, the temperature has risen and the start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in the North has risen, but the downstream units have started to operate normally, the fluorite spot supply in the field is sufficient, and the downstream terminal receipts are not active, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 1st day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite is declining.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite declined. As of the 4th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11075 yuan/ton, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continued to decline. In addition, the upstream refrigerant product plant started generally, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant market is cool, the price of hydrofluoric acid products slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 70%, R22 market device start-up rate does not change much, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 1700-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a fluctuates, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is weakened, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much, and the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened due to on-demand purchasing by merchants. Generally speaking, there are many downstream negative factors, together with the restart of fluorite market devices, fluorite prices have a downward trend, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market prices may continue to fall.

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U.S. crude oil imports hit a 23-year low and production reached a record high

At a time when OPEC has drastically reduced production and Venezuelan exports have rarely fallen to a low level, the one-week scale of crude oil imports from the United States has reached the lowest level in 23 years.

Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) last night showed that crude oil imports fell by 1.61 million barrels a day in the week of February 22, the lowest level since 1996. Among them, 346,000 barrels of crude oil were imported from Saudi Arabia per day, a record one-week low.

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The data also showed that refinery capacity utilization on the East Coast of the United States dropped to 60%, the lowest since 2012.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production has increased by 100,000 barrels per day to 12.1 million barrels per day, a record one-week high. In addition, Kuxin’s crude oil stocks have reached a one-week high since December 2017.

It is worth noting that while the United States has been ramping up crude oil production, they have been pressing OPEC to cut production quotas for a long time, while sanctioning Venezuela and Iran on the other side, which has sharply reduced their exports.

Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive, recently commented on the U.S. increase in production at the International Oil and Gas Weekly Conference in London.

The United States is probably the only country in the world that responds exclusively to output adjustments to market signals, as if it were a brainless market. Unlike Saudi Arabia and Russia, which also regulate supply in response to excess or shortage of markets, the United States responds only to price signals.

However, the Trump administration seems dissatisfied with the higher oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump again complained on Twitter about high oil prices and asked OPEC to relax its efforts to raise oil prices. “Oil prices are too high. OPEC, relax and relax. The world can’t stand the rise in oil prices – it’s still fragile! “

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But this time OPEC seems to have been unaffected by Trump. Saudi Energy Minister Farleh said recently that they may prolong production cuts in the second half of the year. In addition, when asked about Trump’s tweet, Fallich responded: “We’re taking it easy.”

Some oil and gas industry leaders believe that oil prices may rise further.

Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol, the world’s largest energy trader, said oil prices would rise further as OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela led to a “shortage” of heavy crude oil on which refineries depend. “In the next six months, a large supply may be squeezed. The OPEC decision means less oil to choose from, the Iranian situation means less oil to choose from, and Venezuela’s current situation is even worse.

“From now on, oil prices may have the potential to rise further. By the third quarter, the supply will be rather tight. Russell Hardy says.

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