According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of January 26, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10433.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.93% compared with the price on January 1, and a year-on-year decrease of 48.69% in a three-month cycle.

The melamine market rose in January. In the first ten days, the price of raw urea rose, the cost support was gradually strengthened, some maintenance devices were restored one after another, the operating rate increased, the export market supported the market, and the price rose slightly. In the middle of the year, the price of raw material urea rose first and then fell. The operating rate of melamine was about 80%. The orders in the export market were OK. The downstream of domestic trade was prepared before the festival. Enterprises mainly implemented advance orders. In the latter ten days, the price of raw urea rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened slightly, the operating rate of melamine decreased, the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, the enterprise’s early orders were good, the supply of goods was tight, and the market operated strongly.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable on January 26, which was the same as that on January 24, up 3.61% compared with that on January 1.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that the current trading atmosphere of melamine market is acceptable, and the Spring Festival is approaching. It is expected that the melamine market may operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of titanium dioxide rose steadily this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 20733.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 20850 yuan / ton. The price increased slightly within the month, with a range of 0.56%.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the market price of titanium dioxide in China rose steadily. At present, the market confidence of domestic titanium dioxide enterprises is good, and the export orders perform well. This month, domestic downstream manufacturers mainly hoard goods in an appropriate amount before the year. At present, the price of titanium ore is high, the price of other auxiliary materials also remains high, and the price of individual titanium dioxide enterprises increases slightly. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 20500-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18500-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area increased this month. The titanium ore market is acceptable, the downstream market demand is acceptable, and the purchase is mainly on demand. Manufacturers send more early orders, small and medium-sized miners are slightly nervous about the spot, and the reluctance to sell is obvious. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1530-1550 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2200-2280 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 645 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 708.33 yuan / ton. The price increased slightly within the month, with a range of 9.82%. The manufacturer’s inventory this month is general, and the downstream demand is good. The upstream sulfur market has gradually risen recently, and the cost support is good. The downstream formic acid Market stopped falling and rose, the downstream bromine market rose slightly, the downstream customers had good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market, the market price of sulfuric acid may rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that the titanium dioxide market is stable and good at present. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the raw material titanium concentrate increased, the price of sulfuric acid increased, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that in the short term, the high price of titanium dioxide will be dominated, and the actual transaction price will be dominated by single negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on January 21, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8460 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton compared with 8340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.44% during the week, 1.68% compared with the beginning of the month and 19.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market continued to rise this week. The enterprise price increased by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market rose. Recently, the central bank cut interest rates, coupled with the rebound of PVC futures driven by crude oil and coal, boosted the sharp rise of the spot market, reduced the supply of low-cost goods and shifted the focus upward. At the beginning of the week, the disk was strong, driving the PVC market to rise, and the current price rose with it, and the transaction atmosphere was good. At present, the pre-sale of PVC enterprises before the festival is good, most of them have completed the task, and the offer is firm. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the procurement volume has decreased, PVC has entered the routine accumulation stage, the supply and demand side has gradually weakened, PVC has insufficient action force, and enters the sorting stage at the weekend. By the end of the weekend, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises was mostly around 8300-8850 yuan / ton. Pvc5 electric stone was delivered at 8550-8600 yuan / ton in Tianjin. The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou was 8650-8800 yuan / ton, and the market prices all over the country increased.

According to the weekly rise and fall from November 1, 2021 to January 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell in the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuated little, with the range of less than 3%. It rose slightly in the second half of January, with less rise and more fall in the cycle.

region workmanship 1 / 21 (yuan / ton) 1 / 17 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 8700-8900 8600-8700 + 100/+200 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 8550-8750 8450-8550 + 100/+200 Deliver

southwest Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Deliver

For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the PVC quotation in February, which was reduced by 70-100 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan was reduced by 70 US dollars / ton, CIF China was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, CIF India was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, and CIF Southeast Asia was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton.

International crude oil prices fell slightly on January 21. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.14/barrel, down US $0.41 or 0.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $87.89/barrel, down US $0.49 or 0.6%. Oil prices continued Thursday’s trend and fell slightly, mainly affected by the negative impact of the increase in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but tight supply expectations have not changed, limiting the decline in oil prices.

Ethylene, the overall market price of external ethylene rose. Ethylene prices in Asia fell. As of the 21st, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $921-931 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $936-946 / ton. European ethylene market was mixed. As of the 21st, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1573-1584 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1481-1490 / ton.

On January 21, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4400.00, a decrease of 4.69% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide was mainly subject to slight shock and decline. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was good, but the increase was not large. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the Spring Festival is coming, the transportation capacity is limited, the downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the demand is reduced, and the PVC fundamentals are gradually weak. It is expected to focus on narrow adjustment in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7625.75 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7638.25 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7700 yuan / ton.

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7562.50 yuan / ton, up 0.07% from 7567.50 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7500-7600 yuan / ton.

On January 23, the naphtha commodity index was 94.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.92% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.82% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week. The Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the inventory pressure of the refinery is not large.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil growth in 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 5930.20 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6050.20 yuan / ton on January 21, up 2.02% from last week. The price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week, with 6290 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6330 yuan / ton on January 21, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 5.8% from 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil continues to rise, the naphtha market cost is supported, the Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the logistics is about to have a holiday. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell slightly this week. On Monday (January 17), the price of sample enterprises of business society was 8740.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (January 21), the price of sample enterprises was 8660.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The price increased by 24.90% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of styrene rose first and then fell this week, with a small overall decline. On January 17, East China styrene closed near 8650-8750 yuan / ton, and on January 21, 8550-8650 yuan / ton, down near 100 yuan / ton. The above is the tank price in Zhangjiagang. On January 17, South China styrene closed at 8600-8650 yuan / ton. On January 21, 8600-8650 yuan / ton remained stable, and the delivery price of the above factories was stable.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil rose strongly this week. Pure benzene followed the strong rise of crude oil. As of Friday (January 21), the mainstream quotation was 7680.00 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton or 1.45% from 7570.00 yuan / ton on Monday (January 17). The price rise this week was mainly driven by crude oil. The market took the opportunity to speculate on the price of pure benzene. By the end of the week, after reaching a high level, some sources of goods were sold at a profit. The market selling increased and the price fell rapidly, but the overall price still rose. Give strong support to styrene.

In terms of operating rate, the weekly average operating rate of domestic styrene industry this week was 82.51%, the same as last week. In terms of port inventory, East China port inventory entered the rhythm of accumulation this week, and styrene processing profit suffered a small loss.

Downstream, styrene rose slightly this week. In the PS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of PS in East China was 10100.00 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from 10066.67 yuan / ton on Monday. The rise of crude oil led to the strength of pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS followed the rise. Small and medium-sized downstream factories have holidays one after another. At present, most of them are in demand for goods before the Spring Festival, resulting in tight supply of some goods.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 10250.00 yuan / ton, up 1.23% from 10125.00 yuan / ton on Monday. The rise of crude oil led to the strengthening of pure benzene and styrene, and the EPS price followed the rise. However, the terminals have stopped one after another, the demand has weakened significantly, and the high price conflict is obvious. For the time being, there is no intention to replenish the goods in batches before the festival, and the overall delivery is cold.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 14600.00 yuan / ton, up 0.34% from 14550.00 yuan / ton on Monday. Near the Spring Festival, the terminal has just needed to prepare goods. In addition, the current price has been at a low level in the near future. The market has the psychology of bottom reading and entering the market. The market turnover is large and the price is up.

3、 Later outlook

Crude oil is strong, but the subsequent deposit correction may be possible. Pure benzene has been corrected at present, and the bottom of styrene cost side support deposit has been reduced. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the mood of goods preparation in downstream factories has weakened, and the probability of styrene is weak. Generally speaking, the styrene market is expected to be weak next week, and the price is expected to be around 8400-8600 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose slightly this week, and the recent rare earth market rose slightly. Recently, the price trend of domestic praseodymium neodymium series was temporarily stable, and the price of heavy rare earth market rose. On January 17, the rare earth index was 852 points, the same as yesterday, down 14.80% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it increased by 214.39%. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Recently, the market price of light rare earth in China has increased slightly, and the price of praseodymium neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market is mainly stable. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic metal neodymium and neodymium oxide is rising, and the price trend of praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide is temporarily stable. On the whole, the price increase of domestic light rare earth market is slowing down. As of the 17th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earths in China was 1.02 million yuan / ton, up 2.0% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.24 million yuan / ton, up 0.81% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, and the trend is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 900000 yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 1.095 million yuan / ton, which is flat this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 1.17 million yuan / ton, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the domestic rare earth market rises slightly.

The domestic rare earth market price rose slightly. On the one hand, the policy was favorable and the supply of electric coal was tight in winter. In addition, in the early stage, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the motor energy efficiency improvement plan to encourage the development of energy-saving rare earth motors to replace traditional industrial motors and respond to the call for energy conservation and emission reduction. Affected by the news, the price trend rose. On the other hand, there is little change in the supply and demand structure, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances continues to increase, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side has increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, the rapid development of new energy industry has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express train”. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal. The demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is at a high level. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. However, the recent downstream procurement is more cautious, and the price increase of light rare earth market is limited.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is in the traditional peak demand season. Superimposed on the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and the rare earth market continues to rise. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the shippers have a low willingness to ship, have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the on-site price remains high. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high in November. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 518000 and 531000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively, and the market penetration rate was 19.1%. Driven by both market and policy, the demand market for vehicle gauge semiconductors broke out in an all-round way. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is high, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market is stable. Driven by the demand for neodymium, iron and boron, the domestic heavy rare earth market price remained high, and the price rose slightly this week.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China rose slightly. As of the weekend, the price of dysprosium oxide was 3 million yuan / ton, an increase of 1.01% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.98 million yuan / ton, up 1.02% this week; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.8 million yuan / ton, which rose by 1.33% this week. The price of terbium in China rose, the price of terbium oxide in China was 13 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 15.25 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth is rising, the transaction market of domestic rare earth market is acceptable, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the price of domestic heavy rare earth market higher. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar is disturbed. In the later stage, the war in Myanmar starts again, and the supply disturbance is further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is active, the stock mood is high, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend is rising.

In addition, with the support of national policies, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out in early July that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and the national level legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products has increased, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight and the inventory continues to decline. The recent on-site transaction market is OK. However, with the advent of the festival, some downstream began to have holidays, and the purchasing sentiment has dropped, Chen Ling, an analyst at business society, expects that the price trend of rare earth market will be stable in the later stage.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4583.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4566.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 16.66 yuan / ton, down 0.36%, up 38.38% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend at the weekend. On January 16, the calcium carbide commodity index was 119.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.62% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 115.62% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is good, and the downstream demand has declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 4550 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4600 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend is 4550 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1670 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1720 yuan / ton, which has increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which has increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. The price of PVC this week fell from 8340.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8280.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, an increase of 18.92% over the same period last year. PVC prices fell slightly this week, downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream products lack the power to rise, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In late January, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 9716 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 16, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 9550 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 166 yuan / ton, or 1.75%. Compared with the price on January 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 98733 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 983 yuan / ton, Up 11.26 percent

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that last week, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market rose and operated under the support of tight supply in the market. In this week, the pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is still small, and the confidence of the industry is good. At the beginning of the week (17th), the offer price of Dimethyl Carbonate Factory mostly remained high and firm. The commencement of a plant in Shandong was delayed, and the plant in Zhejiang is also temporarily and stably started. The on-site supply remains tight, and the orders of some factories have been pre sold after the festival, The pre-sale of orders well supported the confidence of the industry. In the middle of the week (18th), dimethyl carbonate factories in Anhui and Shandong raised the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, as of 18th, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong was around 9500-9800 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Anhui was around 9700-9800 yuan / ton, The average domestic price is 9716 yuan / ton, up 1.75% this week and 11.26% this month. At present, the downstream demand for goods preparation has gradually weakened, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is mild.

In terms of index, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index on January 17 was 168.53, the same as yesterday, down 32.59% from the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 68.53% from the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from June 1, 2021 to now)

For the upstream propylene oxide, at the beginning of this week, the domestic propylene oxide Market stabilized after a slight correction. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 18, the average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 11100 yuan / ton. Compared with last weekend, the average price was increased by 200 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.83% during the week. Compared with the beginning of this month, the price was basically the same.

On the upstream side of dimethyl ether, in the middle of January, dimethyl ether ushered in a sharp decline, and the early increase was basically reversed. Only one weekend, the dimethyl ether market fell sharply, and the price on the 17th was still weak. Although the international crude oil price rose slightly, it brought limited support to the market. The weakening of the civil market price of liquefied gas brought some bad news to the market. The cost methanol market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range, and the market lacks obvious benefits. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, the mentality is cautious, and it is mainly wait-and-see. Henan market fell back to 3600 yuan / ton over the weekend, and Hebei and Shandong also followed the downward trend, falling back below 4000 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream goods preparation is coming to an end, and the logistics and transportation will also be shut down. The DMC data division of business society believes that it is expected that before the festival, the domestic DMC market will have limited fluctuations, mainly narrow adjustments, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in consumer interest on the supply and demand side.

DOTP prices rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price rose this week, and the overall DOTP market rose. As of January 17, the price of DOTP was 10500 yuan / ton, up 4.22% from 10075 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the DOTP price of 9775 yuan / ton on January 1, an increase of 7.42%%; This week, customers prepared goods actively during the Spring Festival, and the demand for DOTP increased, stimulating the rise of DOTP price.

The price of isooctanol rose sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol in China rose sharply this week, up 5.68%. Customers are actively preparing goods before the Spring Festival, the demand rises, and the price of isooctanol rises sharply. The price of isooctanol rose sharply and the cost of plasticizer DOTP rose. With the basic end of goods preparation for the Spring Festival, the transaction of isooctanol stabilized. In the future, the price rise of isooctanol slowed down and the rising power of DOTP weakened.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, PTA prices fluctuated and rose this week. PTA prices continued the previous rise this week. Affected by the rise of crude oil prices, PTA prices follow the rise. On the demand side, PTA is still in the off-season, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. The space for PTA price rise is limited, mainly PTA price consolidation in the future. Limited benefits to DOTP.

PVC market shock rebound

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 17, the price of PVC was 8340 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 8330 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the PVC price of 8320 yuan / ton on January 1, it rose by 0.24%. The spring festival atmosphere is getting stronger, and the terminal enterprises are reducing their burdens one after another. Affected by the low real estate boom, the orders of terminal building materials are lower than those in previous years, the rigid demand for PVC raw material procurement is expected to decrease one after another, and the goods preparation for the Spring Festival is coming to an end, and the rigid demand is reduced; The overall demand for plasticizers is insufficient. During the Spring Festival, PVC related manufacturers may have holidays in advance. In the future, the demand for DOTP is expected to decline, and the bad DOTP market still exists.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, DOTP prices rose this week due to the rise in the prices of raw materials isooctanol and PTA and the Spring Festival stock of downstream customers. This week, customers are actively preparing goods for the Spring Festival, actively purchasing just in need for a short time, and DOTP prices have risen sharply. In the aftermarket, the rising power of raw materials still exists. In the off-season of downstream demand, with the end of Spring Festival stock preparation, the rising support weakens, the rising power of DOTP is insufficient, and the downward pressure increases. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise first and then stabilize in the aftermarket.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1173.33 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1166.67 yuan / ton, down 0.57%. The current price fell by 10.71% month on month, and the current price rose by 10.76% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

This week, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell steadily. It can be seen from the above figure that after formaldehyde fell for three consecutive months, the price was weak and consolidated, and the decline was slightly slow. As of January 14, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1120-1200 yuan / ton. Two formaldehyde units with an annual output of 120000 tons of Qingzhou Hengxing Chemical Co., Ltd. are shut down for maintenance. Recently, the start-up of formaldehyde enterprises is at a low level, the shipment situation is general, the on-site inventory is low, and the market is slightly lower.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of January 14:

Region, Price

East China 1220-1230 yuan / ton

North China 1200 yuan / ton

Central China 1280 yuan / ton

Northwest China 1150 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: the average price of methanol production enterprises in the near future is 2402 yuan / ton. International oil prices continued to rise and the trading atmosphere in the mainland improved. In the northwest part, the selling price is low, and the shipment of enterprises is temporarily acceptable, but the freight is high. Traders operate with caution, and some downstream enterprises have acceptable raw material inventory, mainly purchasing on demand. The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. Methanol market is weak and cannot support formaldehyde market.

This week, the environmental protection control in Linyi area was temporarily lifted, but the Spring Festival was approaching, some plate factories stopped work and had holidays. Although the other part started work normally, the demand was general, bargain hunting, more wait-and-see mood, the market trading atmosphere was weak, the shipment of formaldehyde manufacturers was general, and the market fell slightly.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society expects that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall slightly.

In 2021, the average price of domestic 1# antimony ingot Market was 42625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 74750 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 75.37%.

On December 31, the antimony commodity index was 103.71, down 7.45% from the highest point of 112.06 in the cycle (2021-11-04), and up 120.75% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

According to the trend chart of antimony ingot Market in 2021, the antimony ingot Market is basically divided into three fluctuation cycles in 21 years.

First cycle: rising period at the beginning of the year (January to March 2021): in the first quarter, the domestic antimony ingot market price continued the trend of years ago, mainly high and stable. Since the middle of 20 years, affected by foreign public health events, the mine end supply has been in a tight state. Under the continuous tight state of domestic supply, some antimony ingot manufacturers have suspended export sales. This month, as the external price continued to rise, the market sentiment was further driven. In the middle of the year, due to the transportation restrictions caused by domestic public health events, downstream manufacturers increased the procurement of antimony ingots and antimony oxide in order to ensure the production demand, which further exacerbated the reluctance of domestic manufacturers to sell when the market circulation source was already small. Most domestic antimony ingot manufacturers have production reduction plans to varying degrees. With multiple positive blessings, prices rose sharply in the short term.

The second stage: consolidation and decline period (from March to the end of June 2021): the trend of the domestic antimony ingot Market rose all the way in the first ten days of March, and the market returned to stability after the middle and late ten days. After entering the middle and late ten days, the price in the early stage rose sharply, some downstream prepared goods in advance, digested some downstream demand, and the market as a whole was in a state of relatively cold trading. Moreover, the price of antimony ingot has been at a high level in recent ten years, both buyers and sellers are waiting and watching, the market game mentality is strong, and the price is adjusted at a high level. After entering April, the price began to loosen, and some were traded at low prices. Although Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places had good news of the entry of the environmental protection supervision team in the same period, it was difficult to resist the impact of downstream demand, and the price of antimony ingots entered the downward channel. In May, with the withdrawal of the environmental protection supervision team, enterprises in Hunan resumed construction one after another, and the market supply recovered compared with the early stage, but the downstream demand still did not improve. Immediately enter the off-season of traditional industries in the second quarter, the downstream demand will continue to shrink, and the market mentality is generally weak. The supply and demand sides are still deadlocked, the downstream purchase intention remains depressed, and the market price is temporarily stable after the decline.

Stage III: shock rising period (July 2021 to the end of December 2021): the price of antimony ingots began to fluctuate upward in early July. Although the price rose in the first half of the month, the overall range was limited. Affected by the low intention of downstream receiving goods, the overall market turnover was limited, the ex factory price was strong, and the game mentality of both sides was strong. In the second half of the month, it is reported that the import of antimony ore will be limited in the next half of the year, and the duration may be up to the end of 21. Driven by the tight expectation of raw materials, enterprises’ intention to raise prices is rising. In order to cope with the shortage of raw materials, domestic manufacturers began to raise the ex factory price of antimony ingots, so as to alleviate the problem of insufficient domestic supply. The factory price of the smelter is strong, the price mentality is still high, and some manufacturers still sell in limited quantities. With the rising price, the downstream always has low intention to receive goods, the overall transaction situation of the market is poor, the wait-and-see mood of both supply and demand sides is very strong, the market price is high, and the game mentality of both sides is becoming stronger and stronger.

After entering November, although the market is still short of supply, some enterprises began to reduce prices due to the demand for returned funds. Some low-cost goods were put on the market and there were certain transactions in the market. This part of getting married once again affects the market mentality. Since the price of antimony ingots has reached a high level, the downstream market has entered on-demand procurement, and the inventory has maintained a reasonable range. Most enterprises mainly consume the early procurement inventory. The depressed demand in the downstream once again affects the market mentality. Under the herd mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market further declines, and the market gradually enters the downward channel. However, at present, the price of antimony ingot is still in a historically high range, and a reasonable correction is also in line with the general law of the market. After the correction, the supply and demand situation entered a state of weak balance between supply and demand, and the price of antimony ingot has been fluctuating at a high level.

It can also be seen from the above comparison chart of price trend from 2017 to 2021 that the price of antimony ingot is at a historical high and enters the shock consolidation cycle after November.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the antimony ingot Market rose for nine months in 2021, and only declined for three months. The largest monthly increase occurred in March, with a monthly increase of 21.76%. The biggest decline occurred in May, with a monthly decline of 14.45%.

In the future, after November, the antimony ingot market fell into a game again, the overall transaction was cold, and the downstream continued to maintain a strong wait-and-see mood. The market is in a weak balance between supply and demand. As of the 31st, the domestic market 2# antimony ingot was 74000 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot 75000 yuan / ton and 0# antimony ingot 77000 yuan / ton. At present, the external price continues to be adjusted at a high level, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the wait-and-see mood in the future market is still strong, and the overall price of antimony ingot is still at a high level. Under the expectation that there is no significant change in supply and demand, the market price is expected to remain at a high level.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of January 10, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 16566.67 yuan / ton. The price increased by 3.54% compared with last Monday (January 3), 2.69% compared with December 1, and decreased by 21.86% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market rose this week. Recently, the raw material propylene has operated smoothly after the rise, the glycerol market is OK, and there is a certain support on the cost side. Some enterprises reduce the load and stop, and the cargo holders maintain long-term contracts and core customers. The spot supply in the market is tight, the downstream inquiry and procurement are active, the focus of market negotiation has risen steadily, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose strongly this week (1.3-1.7). At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7548 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7850 yuan / ton, an increase of 4%.

Downstream epoxy resin, supported by dual raw materials on January 7, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China continued to rise, reaching 26800-27800 yuan / ton. Raw material bisphenol A operated stably at a high level. Supported by the cost side, the transaction of small orders in the venue was at a high level, with an offer of 18450-18500. Cyclic chlorine continued to rise, up 3.33% this week.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of business society, the current cost side has little impact, and there is still some support from the short-term supply and demand side. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

At the beginning of 2022, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a good start. The price rose sharply after the new year’s day, and the price of civil gas in Shandong rose above 5500 yuan. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5090.00 yuan / ton on January 3 and 5640.00 yuan / ton on January 10, with an increase of 10.81% and 43.20% compared with the same period last year.

As of January 10, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

region ., Mainstream quotation

North China 5200-5500 yuan / ton

East China 5550-5750 yuan / ton

South China 5600-5800 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5500-5900 yuan / ton

In January, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a collective rise. Shandong region generally pushed up sharply, with an obvious range. As of January 10, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 5500 yuan / ton. The good start of the market is mainly driven by international crude oil. The continuous rise of international crude oil after new year’s day has brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. In addition, Saudi Aramco’s CP price was introduced in January. Although propylene butane fell, the decline was less than expected, which also gave a certain boost to the domestic market. In addition, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, the manufacturers ship smoothly, the inventory is mostly at a low level, and the prices rise one after another.

The recent sharp rise of LPG futures market has also brought obvious benefits to the spot market. On January 10, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2202 was 5110, the highest price was 5119, the lowest price was 4967, the closing price was 5037, the former settlement price was 5010, the settlement price was 5036, up 27, or 0.53%, the trading volume was 178485, the position was 59134, and the daily position was increased by – 3938. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the international crude oil price has fallen, which has brought limited support to the market. With the end of replenishment in the downstream, most of them are delisted and wait-and-see. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market has significantly weakened compared with that in the early stage. On the 10th, the domestic liquefied gas market has risen and fell, and some regions have replenishment operations. However, the price in Shandong has decreased. It is expected that there will be some resistance to the rise of civil gas price in Shandong in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 10133.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10766.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.25%, down 2.71% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly this week and showed a downward trend over the weekend. On January 9, the isooctanol commodity index was 79.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.42% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 125.23% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is strengthened and the downstream demand is weakened

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 10700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, mainly contract; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 10700 yuan / ton, an increase of 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 10900 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7548.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7850.80 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.00%, an increase of 7.21% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. DOP price rose from 9775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10275.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 5.12%, an increase of 3.53% over the same period last year., There is still a downward trend over the weekend. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In mid and late January, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. Upstream propylene rose slightly and cost support strengthened, but downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand showed no signs of improvement. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the isooctanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly in the middle and late January.

Acetic anhydride prices fell after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell after the festival. As of January 7, the price of acetic anhydride was 9925 yuan / ton, down 4.11% from 10350 yuan / ton on January 1. The cost fell, and the acetic anhydride market fell weakly.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 2.10% after the festival, the price of acetic acid fell after the festival, the market of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

Business community acetic anhydride data analysts believe that the price of acetic acid fell after the festival, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly after the festival. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is general, the price of acetic acid decreases, and the cost of acetic anhydride decreases. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated higher this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1245.35/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1257.00/t, an increase of 0.94%. The current price increased by 7.32% month on month, and the current price increased by 23.36% year-on-year.

Recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 5th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1016-1026 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 5th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1554-1563 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $14037-1445 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose sharply, up $143 / ton in a single day. As of the 5th, the price was 893-911 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to rise as a whole, mainly due to the good demand for ethylene in Europe and America, which led to the rise of the overall ethylene market.

International: on January 5, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $77.85/barrel, up US $0.86 or 1.1%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.80/barrel, up US $0.80 or 1.0%. The oil price rose to the highest level in the last two months, mainly due to the implementation of the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +), the relatively conservative policy is in line with market expectations, and investors believe that the mutant virus (Omicron) has a relatively mild impact on the economy.

The styrene market continues to rise recently. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 8530.00 yuan / ton, and the price of styrene market increased. The price of pure benzene remained stable, and the support of raw materials was still strong. The position of night futures decreased. The port inventory continued to be low, the domestic short-term spot was still tight, and the production enterprises generally increased at the beginning of the month. The styrene price in Shandong was around 8450-8500 yuan / ton. The high price of styrene can support the price of ethylene.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, in terms of crude oil: the U.S. crude oil inventory continues to decline and the market is bullish, so the data analysts of the business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11100.00 yuan / ton, down 23.97% compared with that on December 1, and 35.96% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The propylene oxide market fell sharply in December. In the first ten days, the price of raw propylene fell first and then rose, with little impact on the cost side. The factory inventory was low, supporting the price. The demand side was cold and cautious, and the market was in a stalemate. In the middle of the year, the raw material propylene operated weakly, the cost support weakened, the factory inventory increased slowly, the downstream demand was cold, and the bearish mood was strong. With the decline of price, the factory shipment improved and the inventory was gradually digested, but the downstream follow-up was relatively general, the market continued to be stable and wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere was flat. In the last ten days of the year, the downstream purchase reduction followed up, the factory inventory was under pressure, and the propylene oxide Market decreased steadily. With the rise of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was gradually strengthened, the downstream purchase increased, and the factory’s short-term shipment improved, but the terminal was mostly cautious. On the 30th, the price decreased again under the pressure of factory inventory, On the 30th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10650-10800 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on December 29, the reference price of propylene was 7544.60, a decrease of 0.01% compared with December 1 (7545.50). On the 29th, the trend of propylene (Shandong) was stable and small, and individual enterprises adjusted slightly. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7550-7600 yuan / ton. The crude oil fluctuated upward, and the propylene price increased compared with that of last week under the boost of cost. However, the recent horizontal consolidation of mainstream downstream polypropylene made it difficult to significantly improve the propylene procurement.

On December 29, the reference price of downstream propylene glycol was 16833.33, a decrease of 6.13% compared with December 1 (17933.33).

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost side has certain support, the factory inventory is under pressure, the market atmosphere is weak, and the cautious wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 67125 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 63142.86 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 20.83%, and the price increased by 59.43% compared with the same period last year. On December 30, the bromine commodity index was 186.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.95% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 216.48% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is weak. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 49000-53000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is down as a whole this month. At present, the inventory of domestic bromine enterprises is low and they are not in a hurry to ship. At present, the operation of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is low, which is in conflict with high price bromine and mainly focuses on multi-dimensional rigid demand. Supply and demand play a game.

Raw materials: sulfur prices rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 2000 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 2026.67 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.33%. There is no inventory pressure on refinery enterprises in various regions, and the market trading is OK. The enthusiasm of downstream sulfuric acid to enter the market for procurement is general, the market demand for liquid sulfur is weak, and the market demand for phosphate fertilizer has increased. In the future, we will wait and see the consolidation of the sulfur market and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow. Now the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to the high price of bromine, mainly purchasing on demand, and the downstream support for bromine is insufficient. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

In 2021, the domestic PA66 market increased greatly. The data in the bulk data list of business society showed that most plastic products developed well this year, and even the price range of PA66 frequently exceeded the 40000 yuan mark. As of December 31, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 36500 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.15% over the price level at the beginning of the year. This year, the world is still affected by health events and the systematic transportation capacity is insufficient, while domestic adiponitrile production lines have not been delivered, and the pattern of high dependence on import of PA66 raw materials has not been improved. The high price of upstream raw materials is superimposed on the macroeconomic situation, which is biased towards inflation. Behind the sharp rise in PA66 spot price, we can’t help feeling the pressure from many aspects.

quotations analysis

After the market situation last year, PA66 felt the boost from the raw material end at the beginning of 2021. The adipic acid market ended in January, and the downward trend picked up. Most dealers reported tentative high prices, and generally rose in East and South China. Combined with the replenishment behavior in the downstream before the festival, the pressure at the supply end is generally controllable. In February, uncontrollable overseas factors such as the low temperature disaster in the United States continued to affect, and many enterprises such as crude oil and chemical industry stopped production, and the devices were frequently overhauled. Among them, NVIDIA, an international manufacturer of PA66 and its industrial chain related products, has two adiponitrile and two hexanediamine plants in Texas, USA, which are seriously affected by the cold disaster. There is also the oshengde plant in Alabama, and its adiponitrile and hexanediamine plants have also declared force majeure. According to industry estimates, the above plants alone account for 65% and 50% of the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine. The production capacity loss caused by this disastrous weather has made the global supply of PA66 raw materials “frost and snow” into a very severe situation, and also laid the main tone of PA66 market in 2021. In the first quarter, PA66 enterprises and businesses frequently sent price increase letters, the production unit was under low load, and the restart time was uncertain. In terms of supply of PA66, the shipment is insufficient. The production of domestic polymerization plants is mainly used to meet contract orders. It is almost difficult to find any goods outside the main customers, and the domestic spot price is rising.

In the early part of the second quarter, the market has soared, and the price of adipic acid in the upstream fell back from the high level and fluctuated downward after experiencing the top building market. At the same time, adipic acid has gradually entered the off-season, the delivery speed has decreased significantly, the inventory pressure of enterprises has increased, and it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce prices and destock. Under the influence of increased supply pressure and relatively weak demand, prices lost support and gradually fell. Although the heat of upstream raw materials has cooled, the support for PA66 cost has been weakened. However, the decline of PA66 market in the second quarter is also one of the main factors that drag down the market. Due to the continuous high cost level, the overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry has stabilized to about half. Although the enterprise has no pressure on inventory, its profit margin is limited, and its production and shipment mainly meet the early orders. The transfer of cost pressure to the downstream makes end users complain incessantly, and the purchase strategy is more cautious. In terms of trading, the market mostly takes goods with small orders, and the reduction of trading power has caused price fluctuations in the market to a certain extent.

In the third quarter, it undertook the high callback market in the second quarter. Due to the sharp rise in the price of far-end raw material pure benzene, the price of adipic acid stopped falling and rising in early July. When the adipic acid market was stable, adiponitrile started again in late August. Due to the high degree of dependence on imports, large international manufacturers claimed to lose production capacity due to force majeure in the medium and long term. The recent shortage pattern of adiponitrile was prominent and the price rose. However, in the third quarter, PA66 market was indifferent to the upstream support feedback, and the market basically maintained the medium and long-term pattern of weak supply and demand, with obvious market characteristics in the off-season. In the whole third quarter, the overall load level of PA66 enterprises in China was not high, some units resumed work, and the supply picked up. In terms of demand, the terminal enterprises follow up slowly, the on-site trading orders are small, the market momentum is insufficient, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Merchants tentatively hold firm in their offer, and there is profit making shipment in the actual order. Recently, the market momentum has not improved, and the light state continues. It was not until the traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten” that PA66 spot was getting better and better. There were few arrivals at major ports, and the source of imported goods could not fill the gap of domestic demand. The demand of terminal enterprises is still sluggish, and the follow-up of goods preparation is slow. However, in the face of the reduction of on-site supply and offer, the seller’s leading role in the market is enhanced.

The performance of the “silver ten” in the second half of the traditional peak season is relatively less brilliant. The same raw material prices run at a high level and the same cost side support is strong. However, the operating rate of the industry continues to be affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. In addition, the traditional peak season is gradually weak, the demand is gradually weakened, the on-site supply price is high, the practitioners have heavy resistance, the purchase operation is biased to just need to maintain production, and the weak market of supply and demand continues to spread. The seller’s mentality is loose and the offer is gradually reduced.

Future forecast

According to the bulk data list of business society, the low point of PA66 in 2021 appeared at 29400 yuan / ton in the new year, while the high point appeared at 42900 yuan / ton in early April. This year, the price of PA66 once again hit the price mark of 40 thousand tons, which reminds people of the hot market of PA66 a few years ago. This moment of the same price range is not exactly the same as that moment. At that time, terminal enterprises bloomed everywhere and the industry developed rapidly. Now it is the year after the downstream departure, and the dilemma of high dependence on imports of adiponitrile is becoming more and more prominent. The weak market of supply and demand in 2021 is largely due to the insufficient supply of adiponitrile, and the world has been suffering for a long time. At present, many domestic adiponitrile production lines are under construction. It is reported that two production lines are expected to be completed and shipped successively in the next two years. Upstream and downstream operators of the domestic PA66 industrial chain are looking forward to a PA66 industry with more stable supply and demand and healthier market.

1、 Price data

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7345.75 yuan / ton, up 1.03% from 7270.75 yuan / ton on December 27. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7160.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 7037.50 yuan / ton on December 27. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7000-7300 yuan / ton.

On December 31, the naphtha commodity index was 90.66, up 0.15 points from yesterday, down 12.27% from the highest point 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 114.63% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, a small amount of terminal olefins just needed to be released, and the manufacturers actively pushed up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market.

The price of toluene rose by 40.00 yuan / ton on December 31, and the price of toluene rose by 40.00 yuan / ton on December 31. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, with the price of 5860.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 5730.00 yuan / ton on December 27, up 2.27%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of 31, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.