According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market fluctuated and declined in May. As of May 31st, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6550.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 5.42% from 6925.00 yuan/ton on May 1st.

Supply side: In May, the supply of maleic anhydride in the market was relatively sufficient, with a significant decline in the upstream n-butane market and limited cost support. Downstream unsaturated resins maintained a strong demand for maleic anhydride, resulting in average shipments in the market and a volatile downward trend. As of May 31st, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5500 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In May, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region fluctuated and fell. The market price drops in the first half of the year, rises in the middle, and falls in the second half. On May 1st, the price was 5708.67 yuan/ton; On May 30th, the price was 5752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the month.
The domestic n-butane market price fell sharply in May, and as of May 31st, the price in Shandong was around 4750 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The weak consolidation of the unsaturated resin market in May was the main reason, and the downstream demand for unsaturated resin procurement was limited, resulting in limited support for unsaturated resin and a strong market wait-and-see sentiment.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the main downstream resin of maleic anhydride currently maintains a strong demand for maleic anhydride procurement, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with cautious purchasing sentiment. Currently, the maleic anhydride market has entered an annual low point, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate weakly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic methanol market is weak and declining. From May 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2440 yuan/ton to 2245 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.99% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 10.96%, and a year-on-year price drop of 19.82%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly experienced a decline. The domestic methanol production and supply are at a high level, and there is an expected increase in import supply. The lack of market confidence has suppressed the market, leading to a decline in the domestic methanol market.
In mid month, the domestic methanol market mainly rose. Boosted by macro positive factors, coupled with the shutdown of some facilities in the main methanol market in the Middle East, market sentiment has improved. The domestic methanol market as a whole is dominated, but downstream consumers are resistant to high prices after the rise.
At the end of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly experienced a decline. From a fundamental perspective, due to the expectation of increasing supply and inventory, the market is strongly suppressed and lacks confidence. Therefore, although downstream external procurement and downstream equipment start-up have provided some support to the market, the current support is weak, and the domestic methanol market is under pressure to decline.
As of the close on May 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2220 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2221 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2195 yuan/ton. It closed at 2208 yuan/ton in the end, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.32%. The trading volume is 701459 lots, the position is 824339 lots, and the daily increase is -25077 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain normal production pace, and the market coal supply is still at a high level. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: acetic acid demand may decrease; Downstream chloride, reduced demand for chloride; MTBE、 The formaldehyde and dimethyl ether industries currently have no clear plans for starting, stopping, or reducing their load, and there is little fluctuation in demand for methanol. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has decreased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by unfavorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of May 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 326.50-327.50 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 78.00-79.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 253.50-254.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
Future forecast: Factory production continues to fluctuate at a high level, and there is a short-term demand for shipments; Traditional downstream production has limited improvement, with a focus on essential procurement. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (5.26-30), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4592 yuan/ton, with a 1.73% decrease in price during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC continued its downward trend from last week, with a continuous bearish trend, and the market slightly stopped falling near the weekend. Most manufacturers have made price adjustments within the week, with a range of 50-100 yuan/ton. The market generally followed the decline, and dealers reported a decrease in offers. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, with crude oil prices hovering at low levels and the PVC futures market performing weakly. PVC spot prices tend to follow the downward trend and are relatively weak. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the manufacturer’s equipment is operating stably and the operating rate remains high. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4630-4720 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market remained stable this week (5.26-30). According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation this week was 0. However, since May, the price of calcium carbide has only fallen and not increased, with a decline of 2.44% in May. Currently, it is relatively low and has limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the performance of the PVC spot market is lukewarm, mainly due to low downstream operating rates, insufficient demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.