According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the current price of PTA continued to fall today (October 28). The average price in the domestic market was 5150 yuan / ton, down 3.01% from the previous day, up 52.52% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed at 5204, down 168, down 3.13%.

In terms of supply, the PTA plant with an annual output of 1 million tons of chuanneng chemical stopped in the evening of October 26, the restart time is to be determined, and the industrial start-up load is reduced to near 82%. However, the sufficient market supply has tired the warehouse. The delivery of polyester plants in the downstream is mostly hard demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is light.

The high crude oil price fell back, which lacked support for PTA market. As of October 27, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.66/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.87/barrel. A report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week. In addition, there are rumors that Iran’s nuclear negotiations may be restarted, which is bad for the oil market.

In terms of downstream demand, the impact of power rationing still exists in the near future, and the polyester operation has not been significantly improved and maintained below 80%. The start-up of terminal textile enterprises remained low, the raw material inventory was sufficient, the consumption was relatively slow, the mood for raw material procurement was poor, the overall mentality was cautious, and the prices of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell steadily.

Business analysts believe that the current downstream demand is still weak, and the PTA market is weakening due to the pressure of accumulation pattern. At the same time, the adjustment of high crude oil shock has limited support for the PTA market cost, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the PTA price will operate in a narrow range and weak in a short time. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of international oil prices, maintenance of our own devices and improvement of demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 7975.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 7975.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and the lowest price in the month was 7925.00 yuan / ton. The current price was flat month on month, and the current price increased by 29.67% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

In October, the market of potassium carbonate fell first and then rose. As can be seen from the above figure, after the potassium carbonate market fell and rose in October, it returned to the original point, and the price was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The market of potassium carbonate is mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand. Compared with the former, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the market falls. In the later stage, the supply of goods in the market is tight, and traders cherish after-sales, so the market rises. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of Shanxi industrial potassium carbonate in October was about 7700-8400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers has been temporarily stable: there is a tight supply of domestic potash fertilizer. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low, the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient, and the international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but there is a tight supply of domestic potash fertilizer. Under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term potassium chloride market, the potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation

In the near future, the supply of potash fertilizer market is relatively short, and the procurement of downstream factories maintains rigid demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Spot aluminum prices continued to fall on the 26th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on October 26 was 20866.67 yuan / ton, down 3.69% from the average market price of 21666.67 yuan / ton on October 25.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 32.68%.

Social inventories have risen

As of October 21, the total domestic social inventory was 954400 tons, an increase of 70400 tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong was 277400 tons, an increase of 12400 tons on a weekly basis; The social inventory of aluminum ingots in East China was 505000 tons, with a weekly increase of 46000 tons (including 96000 tons in Shanghai, 319300 tons in Wuxi, 4700 tons in Changzhou and 85000 tons in Hangzhou); Gongyi’s inventory was 84000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons on a weekly basis; Tianjin’s inventory was 70000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis; Chongqing’s inventory was 3000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis; Linyi’s inventory was 15000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis.

High energy power consumption and aluminum production still need to be paid attention to

According to the data of China Southern Power Grid, the economy of the five southern provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan) continued to recover from January to September. Superimposed on the low base effect and the impact of high temperature weather in the same period last year, the power consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces reached 1100.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% and an average increase of 9.2% in two years.

In the third quarter, the power consumption of high energy consumption capacity was continuously reduced. Although the coal was regulated by the policy, the current coal supply situation was still severe. In addition, the upcoming dry season also increased uncertainty for the later hydropower guarantee. In addition to Guizhou, the power supply of aluminum producing provinces Yunnan and Guangxi still needs to be paid special attention

Future forecast

The recent sharp decline in coal prices has brought a strong impact on the metal aluminum market in the power major industry. The speculative positions in the futures market have been settled, driving the linkage of spot prices. On the whole, the spot fundamentals have not changed much, but the aluminum price is indeed high, the downstream undertaking is weak, the fear of heights is strong, and the aluminum price has a certain downward momentum. The price of raw alumina is high, the cost of electricity is pushed up, the cost side is rising, and the expectation of capacity ceiling and production and power restriction is still in progress. It is expected that the space for reduction will narrow in the near future.

This week (October 18-22), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stagnated, and the price fell slightly near the weekend. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline in Shandong was 0.47%, and the price fell below 5000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still at a relatively high level in history. The main reason is that the upstream coal is suppressed by regulation, the price is down, and the cost advantage is weakened. With the increase of shipments of ammonia enterprises, the supply surge led to the rise of inventory, the inventory of ammonia enterprises was discharged, and the price began to loosen.

In terms of cost, at the beginning of the week, there was bad news in the market, the state issued policies to intervene in the coal market, and the futures of power coal and coking coal fell by the limit for several days. Although the spot market is strong, the price is also loose. The policy requires the release of some coal production capacity, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of thermal coal was 0.42%.

On the supply side, this week, the market supply gradually increased and the enterprise shipment increased. Taking a large factory in Shandong as an example, the daily shipment was only 600 tons last week and gradually rose to 900 tons this week. At present, there are few maintenance enterprises, among which the operating rate of devices in Shandong, Hebei, Lianghu and other regions is high. Previously, many devices were facing resumption of work and production. The increase of market supply is the fundamental reason for the decline of prices.

On the demand side, by late October, the downstream demand increment gradually slowed down. Previously, the downstream enterprises had strong stock preparation strength and sustained high support prices. At present, the downstream procurement slowed down and the price of liquid ammonia also loosened. In terms of urea, the price is still very strong, and it is still rising this week, with an increase of 1.30%. However, it is also obvious that the rise is very weak, and it is less likely that the future market will continue to rise.

Future forecast: in the short term, the upstream coal price will still be suppressed, and the cost of liquid ammonia will still face bad. In addition, the pressure on the supply side is difficult to ease in the short term. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the liquid ammonia Market in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after a wide rise this week. On October 15, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13200-13560 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 13500-13600 yuan / ton; On October 22, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14000-14500 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.74% over last week, 77.22% over the beginning of the year and 108.96% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, the rise of crude oil slowed down, the atmosphere of bulk commodity market weakened during the week, and the price of styrene fell, and the negotiation of pure benzene Market weakened. Demand in Shandong weakened and prices fluctuated narrowly after falling during the week. The impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, and the mentality of pure benzene market is empty.

The price of nitric acid rebounded this week. On Friday (October 22), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3430 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.18% over last week and 116.63% over the same period last year.

Due to an accident, Jiangsu Fuqiang delayed the restart of aniline plant, the overall operating rate of aniline in the field was low, the spot supply was tight, the market hyped that the supply was reduced, and the price continued to rise. During the week, the price of pure benzene fell, but it was still high, the price of nitric acid rebounded, and the raw material side supported aniline well. The downstream demand is good, and the follow-up of p-aniline is stable. Aniline stabilized after rising during the week.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, crude oil will still maintain a strong trend in the short term, with good cost support. However, the downstream operating rate decreased and the demand for pure benzene was limited; Coupled with the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, it is expected that pure benzene will hardly recover in the short term. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will fluctuate weakly next week.

It is reported that Huatai and Jinmao have maintenance plans, and the supply of aniline may continue to decrease in the future. The tight supply pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and aniline is expected to maintain a strong trend next week. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

In mid October, the domestic liquefied gas market continued to rise, and the price rose, repeatedly hitting the highest point in the year. At present, the ex factory quotation of civil gas in Shandong mostly rose to 6500 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 6026.67 yuan / ton on October 17 and 6416.67 yuan / ton on October 20, with an increase of 6.47% during the week, an increase of 21.68% compared with October 1.

As of October 20, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Automobile transportation North China 5950-6700 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation East China 6150-6400 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation South China 6260-6350 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation Shandong region 6300-6500 yuan / ton

In the middle of October, the price of domestic liquefied gas continued to rise. Shandong’s civil gas market price is strong, and the rise rate has increased this week. At present, there are many favorable factors in the market, supporting the continuous increase of liquefied gas price. The strong international crude oil price and high import price have brought some positive support to the market. In terms of supply, the supply in Shandong market has not changed much recently. In terms of demand, the weather temperature has been declining, especially in the northern market, the cooling is obvious, and the terminal demand has increased. The downstream buyer’s mentality is relatively positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, there is no obvious pressure on the inventory, the mentality is relatively strong, and the price is reported high one after another. At present, the price of liquefied gas has risen to a high level in recent seven years.

Recently, the LPG futures market fluctuated downward, bringing Limited benefits to the spot market. On October 20, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2112 was 6462, the highest price was 6508, the lowest price was 5974, the closing price was 6215, the former settlement price was 6486, the settlement price was 6244, down 271, down 4.18%, the trading volume was 257255, the position was 71224, and the daily position was increased by – 4811. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the overall transaction atmosphere in the domestic liquefied gas market is mild, and the South and North markets are mainly adjusted upward. At present, the manufacturers in Shandong market have smooth shipments, most of their inventories are at a controllable level, and their mentality is relatively strong. In the later stage, with the weather continuing to cool down, the terminal demand still increases. In addition, the high international crude oil price also brings obvious benefits to the market, It is expected that the LPG market will continue to rise in the later stage.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (October 20): 20666.67 yuan / ton

On October 20, the market price of epichlorohydrin was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 1.64% compared with the price on September 20, and increased by 34.20% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the price of raw materials is running at a high level, the cost support is strong, and the supply is expected to reduce the impact of the news. There is a strong atmosphere of pushing up on the floor. The downstream just needs to follow up, and the market transaction atmosphere is OK.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by strong operation.

Zinc price fell on October 19

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc commodity index was 158.78 on October 18, up 12.08 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 119.67% from the lowest point of 72.28 on November 22, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). On the 18th, the zinc price hit a record high in the cycle. On the 19th, the zinc price fell. The zinc futures market fell after the zinc price limit rose for three consecutive trading days, and the zinc market fell. As of October 19, the price of zinc was 27216.00 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from 27796 yuan / ton on October 18 of the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 23835.00 yuan / ton on October 13 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 14.19%. Zinc prices finally fell after continuous trading.

Glencore European zinc plant joined the ranks of production reduction

On October 16, Glencore announced that it would reduce the output of its three zinc smelters in Europe, mainly including staggered peak production of zinc smelters in Germany, Spain and Italy, and said that this was mainly affected by the soaring energy costs. Glencore is one of the world’s mining giants. Last year, the company produced 1170400 tons of zinc, accounting for about 9.67% of the world. After Trafigura group reduced its production by 50%, Glencore joined the ranks of production reduction, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the rising power of zinc market was full.

Zinc prices fell after rising continuously in the current table

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the futures zinc market hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days after October 13. On October 18, the closing price of zinc ingot in London market was USD 3686 / T, with the price falling by USD 134 / T, or 3.51%. On October 18, the closing price of zinc ingot at night in Shanghai futures market was 26935 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 620 yuan / ton, or 2.25%. On October 18, the night zinc price in the futures market fell, and the spot zinc price fell on October 19. Zinc prices fell slightly after setting a historical record, and the momentum for the future rise of zinc market still exists.

Market Overview

Analysts of the business community believe that with the European Glencore zinc smelter joining the ranks of production reduction, the supply of zinc market is expected to fall again, and the zinc market is full of upward momentum. The futures zinc price has hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days, and the spot zinc price has reached a record high. After reaching a record high, the upward momentum of zinc market has slowed down, the night price of zinc market has fallen, and the spot zinc price has followed suit. In the future, The demand of zinc market has not changed significantly, the supply expectation of zinc market has fallen sharply, the overall zinc market has full upward momentum, and the zinc price is expected to rise in the future.

From October 8 to October 15, 2021, the bidding price of crude benzene was the main player, which was 6236 yuan / ton last weekend and 6551 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.05%.

On October 11, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 400 yuan / ton, 8400 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical implemented 8350 yuan / ton.

This week, pure benzene fell after a broad rise, crude oil rose broadly, the bulk commodity market rose generally, the pure benzene market rose positively, and the price rose broadly. As styrene stopped rising and turned down, and bulk commodities generally fell, the pure benzene market took profits and the price followed the downward trend. The downstream support is strong. The bidding price of crude benzene was raised this week, and 6550 yuan / ton was implemented in Shandong. In terms of supply, affected by the action plan of Shandong Province to deeply fight the blue sky Defense War (2021-2025), Shandong has accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall operating rate in Shandong is 30-40%, the output is low, the overall inventory in the plant has decreased, there is no goods in some areas, and the sales are good. The heating season is coming. According to the usual practice in previous years, the production restriction orders of coking enterprises in northern areas (especially Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong and other areas) will tend to be strict in the heating season, and the output of both coke and by-products will be reduced to a certain extent. The future supply of crude benzene is expected to be tight.

In the future, the fundamentals are good, pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene are stronger, the supply of crude benzene is tight, and the downstream demand is improved. It is expected that the price of crude benzene will be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.73% during the week.

Affected by the rising price of upstream soda ash and supported by the rising cost, some manufacturers raised the ex factory price of sodium pyrosulfite again this week. The market price range of domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 3700-4100 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 3800 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise continues to be low, the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market continues to be tight, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

From the beginning of October to the 15th, the domestic soda ash price continued to rise at a high level by 12.9%, the sulfur price increased by 3.38%, and the upstream raw material cost continued to rise, which will continue to boost the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of upstream raw materials continues to rise. Under the support of cost, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be strong in the short term.

Zinc prices soared on October 14

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price soared on October 14. On October 14, the zinc price was 25086.00 yuan / ton, up 5.25% from 23835 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 22686 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 10.58%. Zinc prices soared to the highest price in 17 years.

Reduction of zinc production by 50% in three European smelters

According to foreign news on October 13, nyrstar said that with the significant increase in power costs and carbon emission related costs, it is no longer economically feasible to operate the plant at full capacity. It will cut zinc production at its three European smelters by 50% from Wednesday to cope with soaring electricity costs. Nyrstar belongs to Trafigura group and is one of the largest zinc metal producers in the world. It is understood that the total output of its three smelters is 700000 tons, accounting for more than 5% of the world. A 50% reduction in production is equivalent to affecting the global zinc production by 2.5%. The news of sharply reducing the output of zinc smelters was too stimulating, and the supply expectation of zinc market fell sharply, stimulating the sharp rise of zinc price.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that under the background of intensified power rationing and upgrading, the output of zinc smelters is limited and the supply of zinc market is tight. This time, the output of European smelters is reduced by 50%, which has exacerbated the supply shortage of zinc market and stimulated the sharp rise of zinc price. In the future, it is difficult to reduce the power cost in the short term, the commencement of zinc smelters is not optimistic, the supply of zinc is expected to be in short supply, and the zinc market is expected to rise in the long term.

Domestic price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the market price of p-xylene rose in the first half of October. As of the 13th, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the price of 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 64.04%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend rises. The closing price of international crude oil remained high, and the PX external price rose sharply. As of the 12th, the closing prices were US $923-925 / T FOB Korea and US $941-943 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has not changed much. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is more than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, and the PX external closing price has risen sharply, The price trend of domestic p-xylene market rose.

In the first half of October, the trend of crude oil price rose sharply. WTI crude oil futures in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was reported as US $80.64/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was reported as US $83.42/barrel. After the oil price rose, it stabilized, and the market fell into differences temporarily. Affected by the global economic recovery and supply shortage, the oil price is still easy to rise but difficult to fall. Since October, the rise of crude oil price is good for the price of domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene is rising.

Since October, the price trend of downstream PTA market has risen. As of October 13, the average price of PTA market was 5400-5500 yuan / ton. The rise in international crude oil prices has strengthened the support for PTA costs. Recently, some PTA units were overhauled, of which the 1.5 million ton unit of Jiaxing Petrochemical stopped on October 9; Yisheng Dalian 6 million ton plant was shut down for 4-5 days on October 8; Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton unit was overhauled for two weeks on October 8, the industrial commencement dropped to near 60%, and there was output compression at the supply end. Next, restart and overhaul coexisted, and the discharge of 650000 ton PTA unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was restarted on October 11; Two sets of yishanhua with a total of 6 million tons are planned to restart on October 12; Chuanneng chemical is expected to produce 1 million tons of high-quality products on October 13. As of October 12, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry is around 63%, which is expected to decline in the later stage. Therefore, the cumulative inventory rate of PTA is suspended. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating load of polyester weaving in the downstream further fell to less than 80%, the supply of goods was tight, mainly consumption inventory, and the prices of staple fiber, filament and other products rose sharply. However, under the condition of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the driving force of PTA continued to rise was insufficient, and the price trend of p-xylene market rose.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current short-term crude oil price trend is OK, but the downstream PTA and textile market continue to rise, and the polyester market remains high. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may stabilize temporarily in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to rise in early October. As of December 12, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11860 yuan / ton, up 6.18% from 11170 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 41.02% year-on-year.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose in the first ten days. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated by various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid has risen to 11200-11700 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price, and the actual transaction price on the floor has increased. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is still rising. Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the price trend on the floor has risen.

The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, some hydrofluoric acid units in the site operate stably, and the price trend of upstream raw materials of hydrofluoric acid is rising. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11200-11700 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to rise. The manufacturer reported that the delivery situation has improved recently, and the hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite rose. As of December 12, the price of domestic fluorite was 2700 yuan / ton, with a rise of 1.25% in the first ten days. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite is normal, and the operation of domestic fluorite units is relatively normal. However, recently, the environmental protection supervision is strict, and the installation and parking in some areas are affected. Generally speaking, there is little change in the supply in the yard, Domestic fluorite prices rose slightly this week. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the venue is the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is affected.

The price trend of downstream refrigerant products has maintained rising, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field has maintained, the recent sales of the automobile industry is OK, the refrigerant market trend has increased, and the demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The rise of the refrigerant market has brought certain benefits to the upstream raw materials. On the whole, the refrigerant market is dominated by positive factors, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform is rising, which increases the cost of the refrigerant industry. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, coupled with quota factors, the production cost pressure of refrigerant enterprises increases, enterprises sell in limited quantities, the shortage of goods in the field continues, boosting R22 prices, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 26000-27000 yuan / ton. The price of R134a in China has risen sharply. Meanwhile, mainstream enterprises such as Jiangsu Meilan and Shandong Dongyue have installed parking lots. The supply of goods in the yard continues to be tight, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the price support mood is strong, and the market continues to rise. At present, the average market price exceeds 40000 yuan / ton. Although the vehicle demand is still in the off-season, the cost support is getting stronger, the market is running stronger, and the market trend of downstream refrigerant has risen sharply, Hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose.

From the industrial chain chart, the price trend of fluorine chemical industry is rising, the price of raw material fluorite is rising, the price of sulfuric acid raw material is at a high level, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products is rising sharply. In addition, the recent stable operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid units and normal spot supply on the site. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of Shengyi society, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

Trade name: titanium concentrate

Latest price October 11: 2410 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis on October 11, the market price of domestic titanium concentrate was relatively stable, the operating rate of downstream titanium dioxide plant decreased, the overall demand for titanium concentrate contracted slightly, and the demand for titanium ore market weakened. The overall market trading atmosphere is general, traders are cautious in taking goods, and the wait-and-see mood is obvious. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand.

Forecast: the price of titanium concentrate will remain stable in the short term.

In October, the propane market rose unabated and welcomed the good start. After returning from the 11th small holiday, Shandong propane market continued its rise in September, continued to be the main player, with a particularly prominent increase, broke through the high level of 6000 yuan / ton, and quickly rose to the highest level in the year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 4983.25 yuan / ton on September 30 and 6125.75 yuan / ton on October 8. The increase rate in early October was 6.24%, an increase of 22.93% compared with September 1.

As of October 8, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications October 8th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5900-6100 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6030-6180 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6043-6230 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6100-6150 yuan / ton

Since the beginning of October, the domestic propane Market as a whole has been the main player. Both the north and South markets have actively increased, and the increase in Shandong market is prominent. The factory quotation has been continuously increased during the National Day holiday, and on the first day after the festival. The price of propane in Shandong has risen above 6000 yuan / ton. At present, the average market price of propane in Shandong has reached the highest point of 6125.75 yuan / ton in the year.

The main factors supporting the continuous increase of propane price include the following points. First, the increase of import cost. At the end of September, Saudi Aramco introduced CP price in October, and propylene butane soared, which brought obvious benefits to the domestic market. Secondly, international crude oil pushed up, and the news was good for the market mentality. In addition, the off-season has passed, the weather has turned cool, and the terminal demand has increased compared with the previous period. In addition, with the arrival of the 11th small holiday, there is a demand for replenishment in the downstream before and after the festival, so there is a good enthusiasm to enter the market. At present, the inventory of Shandong manufacturers is mostly at a controllable level, with smooth shipment and strong mentality. Prices are still rising on the first day after the festival.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2021 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 800 USD / T, an increase of 135 USD / T compared with the previous month; Butane is 795 USD / T, an increase of 130 USD / T compared with the previous month.

The peak season of propane market has come, and there is an expectation of improvement in terminal demand. In addition, the sharp rise in import costs and the high level of international crude oil have brought obvious benefits to the domestic market. At present, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild, there is still replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, and the manufacturer’s inventory is mostly at the low level, and the overall shipment is smooth. It is expected that the price of propane market will continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In September, the futures price of domestic polyester staple fiber rebounded. According to the price test of business agency, on September 30, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7343 yuan / ton, up 3.52% from the price of 7093 at the beginning of the month and 34.74% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber Futures (2201) closed at 7452 on September 30, up 7.53% from the beginning of the month.

The main reasons for the rise in the price of domestic polyester staple fiber in September are as follows: first, the cost picked up. This month, the international crude oil price fluctuated higher, and the price of PTA ethylene glycol, the upstream raw material of staple fiber, rebounded; Second, the supply is greatly reduced. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the main producing provinces have limited power and production, the production and shutdown of polyester staple fiber devices have been reduced, the maintenance has been increased, and the supply has been greatly reduced. However, the inventory of downstream yarn weaving Market and traders is low, so there is a demand for replenishment.

2、 Factors affecting price

In September, the domestic PTA spot market bottomed out and rebounded. As of September 30, the average price in the domestic market was 5069 yuan / ton, up 3.22% from the beginning of the month and 52.94% year-on-year. The futures market also strengthened. On September 30, the settlement price of 2201, the main force of PTA futures, was 5088 yuan / ton, up 3.20% month on month. International crude oil prices continued to rise due to lower inventories and supply concerns caused by hurricanes in the United States, and PTA cost side price support strengthened. The traditional demand for polyester and terminal weaving in the downstream is not prosperous in the peak season, and there is no change in September. In the first ten days of September, the PTA maintenance device was restarted, and the operating rate of the industry increased to more than 80%. Affected by the weak downstream demand, the supply of PTA plants was sufficient, and the inventory rebounded significantly. In particular, the upgrading of the “dual control” policy of energy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased the impact on the weaving industry, and the shutdown and production reduction increased significantly. Since the end of the month, PTA maintenance has been strengthened, and the industrial operating load has dropped to near 72%.

The ethylene glycol market strengthened significantly in September. On September 30, the average price of P value of oil based ethylene glycol was 5970 yuan / ton, an increase of 310 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle. Under the influence of “double control”, coal to ethylene glycol bears the brunt, and the operating rates of ethylene glycol and downstream polyester end have declined. In September, due to the closure of the port, the slow pilotage and unloading of special flights and other factors, the port inventory was at a low level, and the arrival expectation was also declining. Under the influence of favorable supply factors, the spot price rose steadily. Another important reason for the sharp rise in ethylene glycol prices is the upstream raw materials. Under the influence of factors such as the short-term hurricane in the United States, the decline of crude oil inventory and the expected increase in oil demand, the crude oil price fluctuated upward this month, once reaching a high in recent three years. Therefore, although the downstream polyester production and sales performance is still depressed, ethylene glycol is still strongly pushed up.

In September, the price of domestic pure polyester yarn fluctuated and remained stable. As of September 30, the average price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 14375 yuan / ton. The market turnover continued to be light, the overall market was dominated by caution, and manufacturers mainly shipped. Affected by the double reduction policy, the polyester yarn startup rate fell, the raw material inventory increased slightly, most of the early orders were delivered, the domestic and foreign trade inquiry atmosphere was ok, and the inventory pressure of polyester yarn finished products was relieved. Driven by the rapid rise in costs, the price of pure polyester yarn has been increased, and the transaction has been followed up gradually. However, the lower high price is generally accepted, and most of the early low positions are filled.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the polyester staple fiber maintenance device may be restarted in October. The new production capacity of xinfengming polyester staple fiber may reach the production capacity, and the supply pressure may increase. However, in October, the downstream yarn weaving market was affected or reduced by “double control”, and the production capacity of power and production reduction and shutdown in the early stage may be gradually restored. In addition, with the advent of the traditional Christmas stock season in the textile and garment industry, the demand side may be improved. In addition to the strong support of crude oil price, it is expected that polyester staple fiber will still rise in October. Pay attention to the change of crude oil PTA price and the change of “double control” and “double limit” policies.

In September, the market situation of nitrile rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of nitrile rubber was 23233 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 24200 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it increased by 4.16% compared with the beginning of the month.

The supply side of domestic nitrile rubber is basically stable, the enterprise inventory is small, the ex factory price of nitrile increases, and the demand side just needs support. It is understood that the ex factory price of domestic Lanhua nitrile increased by 200 ~ 400 yuan / ton in September. As of September 30, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 21200 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 22100 yuan / ton and 3308e reported 23200 yuan / ton. Traders’ offers rose slightly during the month.

In September, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated narrowly, and the cost side was empty. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 30, the price of butadiene was 6975 yuan / ton, down 33.63% from 10510 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The acrylonitrile price of East China port in September was around 14800 ~ 15200 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that although the cost is low, the inventory pressure of NBR enterprises is small, and the downstream just needs support. It is expected that the price of NBR will remain high in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

In September, the price of styrene fell slowly after rising sharply under the cost support and demand suppression, and rose as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of styrene was 8787.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and rose all the way to 9657.50 yuan / ton on September 16, up 9.90%. By September 30, the price of styrene was 9170.00 yuan / ton, down 5.05% from the middle of the month and up 4.35% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of styrene fell slowly after rising sharply under the cost support and demand suppression, and rose as a whole. At the beginning of June, affected by the sharp rise in the price of pure benzene, the price of styrene rose sharply. The arrival of pure benzene at East China port was affected by the health incident, some of which were delayed and the port inventory was tight. East China pure benzene rose slightly in the shock due to low inventory and external support. In addition, the maintenance news of downstream styrene Zhejiang Petrochemical in October triggered a sharp rise in styrene futures and spot. Pure benzene was driven by linkage trading, with active buying, rapid price rise, and cost support gave rise to styrene. By the middle of the month, the rise of pure benzene was weak and the price continued to fall. Yangzi BASF and CNOOC Taizhou reduced their load and shut down, resulting in some losses on the supply side. However, the external market prices in the United States and Europe fell sharply due to insufficient demand, resulting in the lack of other options for South Korea’s pure benzene export. Therefore, after the import volume reached 320000 tons in August, the import volume was also high in September. After the worries on the floor, the supply and demand fundamentals of pure benzene turned to sufficient supply, and the negative sentiment increased, causing the rapid decline of prices. With the exchange and rescue of some domestic pure benzene, pure benzene became weaker, driving the correction of styrene price. Near the end of the month, the price of styrene fluctuated and stabilized, the purchasing market before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the spot buying sentiment appeared one after another, but the recovery was weak. In addition, under the “energy-saving policy” in Jiangsu, the supply and demand decreased, while styrene plants were restarted in other regions, and the domestic supply increased instead of decreasing. In addition, the port arrival was concentrated and the inventory rose slightly. The fundamentals of styrene itself were still weak, Led to a rebound without support, showing an consolidation situation.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the correction of pure benzene is temporarily stable, the cost support of styrene still exists, and the falling price space is limited. The styrene maintenance unit is gradually restored, the domestic supply will increase, and the fundamentals of styrene itself still show signs of weakening. Styrene is expected to remain volatile in the short term.

Price trend in September

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price trend of cryolite continued to rise in September. The average market price at the end of the month was 6575 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.54% over the price of 6475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 16.03% year-on-year.

Analysis of industrial chain in the month

In September, the cryolite market in Henan was sorted upward, the upstream raw materials were tight, and the enterprise inventory was tight. During the month, the enterprise adjusted the price according to its own shipment, and the cryolite price increased continuously. In terms of devices, the devices of domestic cryolite enterprises operated normally and started smoothly this month. The manufacturers in Henan had low production capacity, tight inventory, high cryolite quotation and acceptable downstream demand. The enterprises sold according to the order, and the actual transaction price was flexible. As of the 30th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6500-6800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory price in Shandong will be increased by 200 yuan / ton at the same time, and the quotation is about 6700 yuan / ton, mainly through negotiation.

Upstream, the domestic fluorite market remained stable. On September 30, the average price of fluorite was 2666.67 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.42% in the month. Affected by environmental protection, the mine is underoperated, and the price trend of fluorite rises slightly due to the rising price of refrigerant. At present, the market demand is weak, the trading of fluorite is general, and there is no good news in the market. It is expected that the market will wait and see in the later stage.

The downstream aluminum industry operated at a high level in September. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the production capacity was reduced, the supply was tight, the domestic demand came out of the off-season, the demand for photovoltaic, automobile and other industrial materials maintained growth, which continued to be good for the aluminum price. Under the market game, the future market continued to fluctuate at a high level.

Future forecast

At present, the supply of cryolite market is tight, the downstream demand is OK, the high quotation of enterprises is strong, the on-site mentality is mainly wait-and-see, the raw materials are tight, and there is no possibility of short-term price reduction. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable and wait-and-see in the later stage.