Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, yellow phosphorus prices fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 15575 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 15075 yuan/ton. The price fell slightly within the month, with a range of 3.21%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Yellow phosphorus prices fell slightly this month. In terms of electricity price, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan began to rebound near the end of the month due to the impact of cost support. At present, yellow phosphorus is generally driven everywhere, and the supply of goods is on the tight side. The mainstream transaction price in Yunnan is about 15200-15400 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Sichuan is about 14900 yuan/ton. The main transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 15 300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Most mines in the domestic phosphate ore market have resumed mining this month, with increased supply and high overall inventory. The mainstream quotation is 400-500 yuan/ton. Coke prices fell by 9.73% this month. The mainstream market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 2,080 yuan per ton. March is still a dry season. The electricity price of yellow phosphorus enterprises has been raised. Affected by the explosion accident in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, safety inspection shows that the downstream enterprises of yellow phosphorus have insufficient start-up rate and light demand.

Third, the future market forecast business society chemical branch yellow phosphorus analysts believe that the overall demand for yellow phosphorus is good, the downstream market needs to increase, the situation of supply and demand tension is intensifying. The price of electricity will rise instead of falling, and the price of Coke will rise. Influenced by cost support, it is expected that there is still room for price increases in the short term.

On April 27, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 28th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1576.67 yuan/ton as of 28 days, the stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is oscillating, and the market price of liquid ammonia as of 28 days is 3460 yuan/ton. The downward trend of upstream raw material price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Market price trend is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again, and the ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On April 23, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 24th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 24 days, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has slightly declined, up to 24 days, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3453 yuan/ton. The downward trend of upstream raw material price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium market price trend is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On April 22, the PX commodity index was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The start-up rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 22, the market of p-xylene in Asia rose by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is US$949-951/ton FOB in Korea and US$968-970/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative effect on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 22, the price of WTI crude oil in June rose to $65.70 per barrel, an increase of $1.70. Brent crude oil in June rose to $74.04 per barrel, an increase of $2.07. The trend of crude oil price is rising, which has certain cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of p-xylene market is temporarily stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices rose slightly on the 23rd. The average price of East China was raised near 6550-6650 yuan/ton. As of the 22nd, domestic PTA start-up rate was about 80%, polyester industry start-up rate was about 91%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market prices did not change much. It is expected that the price of PX Market will be lower in the later period.

Price Trend

Business associations: This week’s weak finishing trend in maleic anhydride market (3.18-3.22)

According to the data of business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 7200.00 yuan/ton (all including tax), and the trend of weak consolidation of offer.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole showed a weak trend of consolidation.

Industry chain: First, the domestic unsaturated resin runs smoothly this week, the downstream demand is general, resin factory purchasing on demand is dominant, domestic maleic anhydride market is weak, negotiations are weak; secondly, the mainstream factory price is dominant. Peripheral crude oil fluctuations affect the field’s psychology, crude oil has a certain support market; upstream raw materials pure benzene and n-butane rose slightly, the market supply is sufficient, in the short term, the profit margin of benzene and butane maleic anhydride remained stable. Finally, at present, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, and factories are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the near future, and the overall price may be the same as this week, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium nitrate in China has been consolidated this week, with little overall change. As of April 19, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4425 yuan/ton, and this week’s market consolidation was the main one.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic potassium nitrate Market Trading atmosphere is cool, the overall inventory is at a low level, the start-up rate of manufacturers has decreased, downstream purchasing volume meets a small amount of replenishment, it is expected that in the short term, the main stable state, this week’s price changes little, domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers offer 4000-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Nitrate analysts of business associations believe that the recent nitric acid market is mainly consolidated, spot trading is not warm, and it is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will hardly improve in the short term, and the market may continue to consolidate.

On April 17, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 18th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 18 days, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little influence on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, up to 18 days, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3536.67 yuan/ton. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has brought certain support to the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium acid market price trend is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On April 16, the fluorite commodity index was 99.12, down 0.35 points from yesterday, down 22.25% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 101.42% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, up to 17 days, the average domestic fluorite price is 2825 yuan/ton, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up is normal, the mine and flotation plant start-up is normal, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, the recent downstream market is general, for the fluorite market on demand purchase, fluorite market price fluctuations. In recent years, the downstream units started to work poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field was normal, and the downstream terminal receipt was not good, which led to a slight decline in market price trend. As of the 16th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained volatile.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is stable temporarily. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 375 yuan/ton as of the 17th day. The rising market price of hydrofluoric acid has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. Fluorite prices are stable temporarily. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may maintain a volatile trend.

On April 15, the fluorite commodity index was 99.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.98% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 102.13% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is slightly lower, up to 16 days, the average domestic fluorite price is 2825 yuan/ton, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up is normal, the mine and flotation plant start-up is normal, the fluorite supply is normal, the recent downstream market is not good, the market demand for fluorite is weakened, the fluorite market price trend is slightly lower. In recent years, the downstream units started to work poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field was normal, and the downstream terminal receipt was not good, which led to a slight decline in market price trend. As of the 16th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite declined slightly.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 16 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 375 yuan/ton. The rising market price of hydrofluoric acid has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has been weakened. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, fluorite market supply is normal and fluorite prices are declining. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may maintain a volatile trend.

Price Trend

This week (4.08-4.12) the domestic price of 1 # antimony ingot fell, and the average price in the domestic market was 43750 yuan/ton, which was flat.

On April 12, the Sb Commodity Index was 60.90, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.48% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 29.63% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: domestic antimony sulfide concentrate (Sb < 55%) market quotation as of Friday is 3450-35500 yuan/metal ton, average price is 35000 yuan/metal ton; this Wednesday antimony oxide price followed the trend of antimony ingot to stop falling and stabilize, as of Friday 99.5% in 38500 yuan/ton, 99.8% in 39750 yuan/ton, downstream demand is still limited, the overall market outlook is mainly limited, transaction is limited, digestion of pre-inventory. Mainly.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot: This week, the price of antimony ingot is stable. As of December, the mainstream domestic price is 2_high bismuth antimony ingot 42250 yuan/ton, 2_low bismuth antimony ingot 43500 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingot 44500 yuan/ton and 0_antimony ingot 45000 yuan/ton. The market of antimony ingots stopped falling and stabilized this week, boosted by the news of production shutdown in Lengshuijiang area.

Non-ferrous industry: Zhou Dollar’s performance first restrained and then rose, making the basic metals rise at the beginning of the week and then gradually fall back. On the weekend, it gave up the increase in the week and gave up its empty power.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, there will be a lot of data at home and abroad, and it is expected to continue to be good. Although macro-confidence tends to be positive, the US dollar is afraid to rise, commodities are still under pressure. Basic metals show different performances according to their fundamentals. Antimony ingot Market focuses on downstream demand.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, this week the domestic sodium pyrosulfite went ahead steadily as a whole. The average weekly price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1983.33 yuan/ton at the weekend. The overall price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite went ahead steadily.

II. Market Analysis

In April, the overall domestic market of sodium pyrosulfite is still in the off-season. This week, the domestic market price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is between 1800 and 2150 yuan/ton, and most of the prices are around 2000 yuan/ton. Enterprise production is stable, inventory is relatively sufficient, market turnover is light, mainly to complete old customer orders, new orders increase is limited. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: This week domestic prices of sulphur and soda continue to fluctuate at the bottom, processing costs continue to be low, and the price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future is insufficient.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the low processing costs, weak market demand in off-season, prudent downstream purchasing, many negative pressures, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to move forward at the bottom in the short term.

On April 9, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 93.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.66% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 73.84% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower recently, up to 10 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10183.33 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on-site is normal at present, and the situation of on-site goods is poor in the near future. Some enterprises have increased their stocks of hydrofluoric acid, while the ex-factory price has been slightly lower recently due to the market price of raw materials. Particularly weak, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent weakness of the raw material market trend, fluorite price trend slightly lower, has a negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, hydrofluoric acid market price trend slightly declined.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices are temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor market situation, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower.

Refrigerant field transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but upstream fluorite prices are weak, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, PC market prices fell slightly in early April. As of April 4, the mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders was 19666.67 yuan/ton.

II. Cause Analysis

PC upstream bisphenol A market declined slightly at the beginning of the month, business confidence is insufficient, downstream factories still have inventory, just need to purchase, demand weakened, and the market is generally bearish, the outlook may be poor. Affected by it, the quotation of merchants is loose and the quotation is falling. The cost support of PC market in China is insufficient. The domestic PC plant has a good start-up rate and the production capacity of individual factories is gradually rising. The main theme of the contradiction between supply and demand remains unchanged, the turnover is light, the downstream demand is slow, and the quotation is reduced.

3. Future Market Forecast

PC analysts at business associations believe that the domestic PC market is weak in early April, and the recent trend is likely to continue the weak consolidation.

On April 2, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 95.96, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.67% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 79.06% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly declining recently. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 10408.33 yuan/ton as of the 3rd day, and the starting rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid spot source is normal at present, and that the market situation of hydrofluoric acid is poor in the near future. Some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks, and their ex-factory prices have been slightly lower recently due to the market price of raw materials. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is around 9500-10500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 1000-10500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent weakness of the raw material market trend, fluorite price trend slightly lower, has a negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, hydrofluoric acid market price trend slightly declined.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices are temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor market situation, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower.

Refrigerant field transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but upstream fluorite prices are weak, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

On April 1, the PX commodity index was 64.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.72% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 42.26% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Prices are declining. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 1, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 4 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 1033-1035 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 1053-1054 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the intra market price of p-xylene remains stable.

In April 1, the price of WTI crude oil in May rose to $61.59 per barrel, an increase of $1.45. Brent crude oil in June rose to $69.01 per barrel, an increase of $1.43. The trend of crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products and had a stable trend in the price of paraxylene market. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend slightly increased on the 2nd day, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6650-6750 yuan/ton, as of the 2nd day domestic PTA start-up rate is about 75%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, downstream production and sales rate slightly increased, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that PX Market prices will remain stable in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices fell sharply in March, with the lowest price on March 26. After that, cobalt prices recovered, showing a momentum to stop falling and rising. From March 17 to March 23, cobalt prices fell by 7.13%, the biggest one-week decline in recent years. As of March 31, the quotation of cobalt market was 259666.67 yuan/ton, down 12.23% from 295833.34 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, up 2.30% from 253833.33 yuan/ton on March 26, and the declining trend of cobalt price slowed down after the biggest one-week decline in March, and rebounded at the end of the month. The cobalt market has a momentum of stopping the decline and rebounding.

II. Market Analysis

Market Trend Analysis

In January-February 2019, the output of new energy vehicles broke out and increased to 150,000, and the batteries grew to 7.31 million degrees, an increase of 213% over the same period last year. The start of January-February was super strong. From January to February 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and batteries have been booming. The overall market demand for new energy vehicles has risen, which is good for the demand of cobalt market. However, with the further implementation of the new subsidy policy, new energy vehicles will continue to grow, which is good for the market of cobalt.

In terms of consumer batteries, major battery manufacturers have indicated that demand has remained stable in the near future and has not improved significantly. Due to the continuous price reduction of lithium cobalt oxide materials and weak downstream demand, some manufacturers of lithium cobalt oxide materials have insufficient power to start construction recently.

Policies and regulations

In the government work report of 2019 issued by the two sessions, it put forward “promoting the construction of charging and hydrogenation facilities”, which is the first time hydrogen energy has been written into the government work report. Fuel cell vehicle is one of the main forms of hydrogen energy application. The development of fuel cell will offset the development of lithium battery vehicle to a certain extent. The state’s investment in hydrogen fuel cell vehicle will form a competitive relationship with lithium battery vehicle to a certain extent. The growth of lithium battery vehicle will be limited in the future, and the growth of lithium battery will slow down. Demand for cobalt market is negative.

On the afternoon of March 26, the new version of the new energy vehicle promotion subsidy scheme on the official website of the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China came out in a flash, with a huge decline. Compared with the subsidy method in 2018, the main structure of the new policy has not changed. The subsidy amount is still calculated according to the three dimensions of driving mileage, energy density and vehicle energy consumption, and a transitional period is set up. The transitional period is from March 26, 2019 to June 25, 2019. During the transitional period, the licensed vehicles that meet the requirements of the 2018 technical indicators but do not meet the requirements of the 2019 technical indicators shall be subsidized 0.1 times as much as the corresponding standards in accordance with the Circular of the Development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of Finance, Science and Technology, Industry and Information Technology on the Adjustment and Improvement of the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (No. 18, Finance Construction, 2018), and the licensed vehicles that meet the requirements of the 2019 technical Vehicles are subsidized by 0.6 times the corresponding standard in 2018. During the transitional period, the sale of top-brand fuel cell vehicles is subsidized by 0.8 times the corresponding standard in 2018. Subsidies for fuel cell vehicles and new energy buses will be announced separately. The further decline of the subsidy standard in 2019 will inevitably affect the future production and sales of lithium battery electric vehicles. At the same time, due to the state’s investment in hydrogen energy vehicles, market funds will be diverted. The growth of lithium battery electric vehicles in the future will be severely tested, which will have a negative impact on the future market of cobalt.

Enterprise dynamics

Havilah Resources plans to carry out detailed and high-resolution aeroelectromagnetic exploration or AEM in Mutooroo Copper-Cobalt Area, New South Wales, Eastern Australia, in order to explore more cobalt resources. The Mutooroo Copper-Cobalt Deposit contains 8400 tons of cobalt. Cobalt mining enterprises increase their efforts in cobalt exploration. Cobalt mining enterprises are optimistic about the future of the cobalt market, which is beneficial to the cobalt market.

Australian company Magnis Energy Technologies (ASX: MNS) announced that its battery company IM3NY (Imperium 3 New York) has received a $52 million (350 million yuan) fund for lithium-ion battery production in the United States. International giants add lithium batteries, lithium batteries market prospects are good, but lithium batteries business competition intensified, lithium batteries demand for cobalt or short-term turbulence, future market demand for cobalt lithium batteries is generally good.

Volkswagen plans to build a battery recycling plant in Salzgitter, Germany. Since 2020, the plant will receive nearly 1200 tons of spent lithium battery packs annually. Recycling and reuse of waste batteries will reduce the demand for cobalt ore in the market and increase the supply of cobalt metal in the market, which will have a negative impact on the price of cobalt in general.

International Cobalt Price

The MB standard cobalt price on March 29 was $13.75-14.4 per pound, which was higher than that on March 22. The alloy cobalt price was $13.9-14.8 per pound, which was higher than that on March 22. The international cobalt price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price in the future has sufficient momentum to rise.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

To sum up, Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded at the end of March. The cobalt price has touched a turning point, and the cobalt price will rebound at any time, starting a new round of rise. But now the market investment in cobalt market tends to be more rational, and the future cobalt price is more affected by the relationship between supply and demand. The phenomenon of sharp rise and fall may be difficult to appear.

In the future, the sustained and high-speed growth of new energy vehicles ensures the growth of cobalt demand for new energy vehicles, but the production and sales of smart phone products are declining, the prospects for 5G products are uncertain, the overall demand growth of cobalt market is limited, and the overall cobalt market is bad; in terms of national policy, the further decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the increase of support for hydrogen energy vehicles, lithium battery vehicles. Future market growth is bad; in the international market, the rapid growth of global lithium battery vehicles, German lithium battery subsidy plus code, and increased investment of international automobile enterprises in lithium battery vehicles are all good for future cobalt Market demand; at the same time, increased investment in recycling and reuse of waste batteries in the world will also have a certain impact on future cobalt prices, the overall future cobalt market has a mixed profit margin, cobalt market. It is still in the tripartite game among cobalt mining enterprises, government and downstream customers. With the stop and rise of cobalt price, the domestic cobalt price will rise inevitably in the future. However, excessive pursuit of high price and high growth will fall back into the speculative trap of international sellers. It is expected that the adjustment of cobalt price fluctuation or a small increase in the short term will be more likely, and the cobalt price will be difficult to break through 300,000 yuan/ton in the short term.