1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on May 29th, the price of baking soda remained stable, with an average market price of 1275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.34% compared to the same period last year. On May 28th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 84.69, a decrease of 0.03 points from yesterday, setting a new historical low for the cycle, and a decrease of 64.09% from the highest point of 235.84 points on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1200-1300 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1350-1500 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand driven procurement, it is expected that weak operations will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash is operating steadily. The current market average price is 1386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35.83% compared to the same period last year, and downstream purchases are mostly made on demand.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been generally operating. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand, with average demand enthusiasm. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of ethyl acetate in China was 5456.67 yuan/ton on May 28th, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The cost situation is stable, downstream purchasing is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is average. The price of ethyl acetate is temporarily stable.

Market analysis: Recently, the market for ethyl acetate has been stabilizing. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid remains stable, but there is currently no favorable support in terms of cost; On the demand side, downstream consumption of inventory is the main factor, with a small amount of purchases following up on urgent needs. Enterprises ship according to demand, and the overall market trading is average. The focus of ethyl acetate transactions is temporarily stable.
Looking at the future, the price of ethyl acetate raw materials is stable, with little cost pressure. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is low, and downstream demand is slightly followed up. There is a lack of market benefits, and it is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up situations.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 24th, the DOP price was 8167.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the DOP price of 8200.83 yuan/ton on May 16th. The operating rate of DOP plasticizer enterprises has temporarily stabilized, and with the economic and trade talks between China and the United States and the easing of tariffs, the demand for plasticizers is expected to increase. The growth of plasticizer production is not as expected, and the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose. The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizers first fell and then rose. The support for the increase in plasticizer prices is relatively weak.
This week, the price of raw material isooctanol first fell and then rose
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 24th, the price of isooctanol was 7383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.62% compared to the price of 7443.33 yuan/ton on May 16th. The easing of tariffs has led to an expected rebound in demand for isooctanol, but the actual increase in demand has fallen short of expectations, causing the price of isooctanol to fluctuate and fall from a high level; With the decrease in prices and the recovery of demand, the price of isooctanol has rebounded slightly and increased. Isooctanol manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. Stable supply and poor demand growth have led to fluctuating and stabilizing prices of isooctanol.
This week, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 24th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.47% compared to the price of 7066.67 yuan/ton on April 16th. This week, the equipment production of phthalic anhydride enterprises has been stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient; Downstream demand for plasticizers is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is fluctuating and falling. The demand for phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride is weak and stabilizing.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP first fell and then rose; In terms of demand, the suspension of tariffs between China and the United States is beneficial for international trade, but the recovery of demand in the plasticizer market is not as expected. In the future, there is a glimmer of hope in the US China trade negotiations, with downstream demand expected to recover but not as expected. Costs have stabilized and demand recovery is not as expected, leading to a strong consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 19th to 23rd (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2362 yuan/ton to 2303 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.49% during the period, a month on month drop of 5.20%, and a year-on-year drop of 16.48%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. From a fundamental perspective, due to the expectation of increasing supply and inventory, the market is strongly suppressed and lacks confidence. Therefore, although downstream external procurement and downstream equipment start-up have provided some support to the market, the current support is weak, and the domestic methanol market is under pressure to decline.

As of the close on May 23rd, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2266 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2270 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2240 yuan/ton. It closed at 2241 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 1.10% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 529804 lots, the position is 773662 lots, and the daily increase is 22183 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain normal production pace, and the market coal supply is still at a high level. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: acetic acid demand may decrease; Downstream chloride: reduced demand for chloride; MTBE、 The formaldehyde and dimethyl ether industries currently have no clear plans for starting, stopping, or reducing their load, and there is little fluctuation in demand for methanol. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has decreased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by unfavorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 22, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $327.50-328.50 per ton, a decrease of $4 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 80.00-81.00 cents/gallon, down 2 cents/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 230.50-231.50 euros/ton, down 13 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, overall construction will maintain high fluctuations, and the arrival of foreign ships in coastal areas will gradually increase. Port inventory may gradually enter the accumulation channel. Traditional downstream demand continues to be weak. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is mainly weak.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of May 16th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7600 yuan/ton, with downstream market demand mainly for essential purchases, and the mainstream market price was around 7500 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
On the demand side, downstream demand is weak, the purchasing atmosphere is insufficient, and inventory pressure still exists. On the export side, there are currently no significant incremental orders, mainly contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the cyclohexane market is currently maintaining its current trend, with a moderate downstream purchasing atmosphere and an overall market supply-demand balance, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 6th to 9th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2428 yuan/ton to 2402 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.08% during the period, a month on month drop of 2.73%, and a year-on-year drop of 10.02%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. The domestic methanol production and supply are at a high level, and there is an expected increase in import supply. The lack of market confidence has suppressed the market, leading to a decline in the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on May 8th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2216 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2247 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2211 yuan/ton. It closed at 2227 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 7 yuan or 0.32% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 532893 lots, the position is 767836 lots, and the daily increase is -3589 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most of the coal mines in the main production area maintained normal production and sales, and the coal mines that completed the task of shutdown and maintenance at the end of the month also basically resumed normal production. The overall coal supply level is relatively sufficient. During the May Day holiday, the coal prices in the main production areas continued to be weak, and most coal mines had average transportation conditions. The pithead lowered the coal prices according to their own sales situation, with a range of 5-10 yuan/ton. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chloride: chloride increases demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no shutdown plan for the unit, and the demand for dimethyl ether is limited; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side, some equipment maintenance; Some other devices have been restored. The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of May 8th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 86.00-87.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 230.50-231.50 euros/ton, down 9 euros/ton.
Future forecast: Traditional downstream demand is relatively weak, and the demand side will continue to suppress price trends. At the same time, under the macro influence, there is a lack of positive factors in the market. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is mainly weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. From April 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2580 yuan/ton to 2440 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.43% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 7.36%, and a year-on-year price drop of 7.98%.

In the first half of the month, under the influence of crude oil and policies, the domestic methanol market fell sharply. After falling to a low level, many downstream and trading companies restocked at the low price. In addition, some major production areas experienced equipment failures and reduced production, supporting the low rebound of the domestic methanol market. The methanol market is fluctuating and running.
In mid month, the supply of methanol in the coastal market increased, but market confidence was insufficient, and the overall port market remained weak. Due to the shutdown of some facilities and tight supply in some regions of the mainland methanol market, coupled with low inventory levels of enterprises, traders have a positive attitude towards purchasing goods. Production enterprises have raised prices and shipped goods, resulting in an overall strong operation of the mainland methanol market.
At the end of the month, there was a recent demand for pre holiday stocking of methanol downstream in mainland China, which provided some support for the market atmosphere. Enterprises shipped smoothly, but they still had a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and market price changes were limited.
As of the close on April 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2279 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2283 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2250 yuan/ton. It closed at 2251 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 35 yuan, 0.09 yuan, or 1.53% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 494490 lots, the position is 635491 lots, and the daily increase is -19453 lots.
On the cost side, although the supply from production areas has slightly tightened at the end of the month, traditional coal consumption is in the off-season, and there is insufficient demand for civilian electricity. Power plant units have entered the maintenance season, and the output of clean energy such as hydropower has squeezed out the share of thermal power. Downstream demand for coal has significantly decreased, and market coal trading activity has significantly declined. The supply and demand of thermal coal market are still relatively loose, and the overall price of coal is weakly stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chlorides: The restart of the early load reduction device for chlorides has increased the demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; There is currently no maintenance or restart device for formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on April 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 87.00-88.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 264.50-265.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
Market forecast: As the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a partial release of replenishment demand for traditional downstream demand, and the planned maintenance of MTO facilities in North China will lead to a decline in industry consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.