1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was weak. The average price of Shandong market was 482.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 472.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a price drop of 2.07% and 18.53% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on January 28 was 67.99, down 1.43 points from yesterday, down 67.13% from 206.87 points (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 4.42% from 65.11 points, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The purchase price of Shandong’s main alumina decreased by 10-16 yuan / ton, and 32 yuan / ton to 390 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong Province has been reduced. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-500 yuan / ton. The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is stable for the time being. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand is general. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range finishing operation of caustic soda will be dominant.

Demand: on the downstream side, the downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. At present, the average price of domestic alumina is basically maintained within 2300-2400 yuan, which is at a historical low. The production profit of enterprises is low, and the willingness to resume production is weak. In addition, the manufacturers mainly purchase caustic soda on demand near the Spring Festival holiday. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. The purchasing of downstream enterprises is general, and the market price has little power to rise.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 03 th week (1.18-1.22) of 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (2.74%) and PVC (1.97%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 3.05%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.33%.

Analysts from the business society believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. As a national wind vane, the price reduction in Shandong will drive the national trend downward. It is expected that caustic soda will be sorted out later or in a narrow range, depending on the downstream market demand.

On January 27, the crude benzene commodity index was 47.01, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point 131.84 (2013-01-28) in the cycle, the crude benzene commodity index decreased by 64.34%, and increased by 53.93% compared with the lowest point 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In January 2021, the crude benzene market fluctuated. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 2951.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3001.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly rise of 1.71%.

In January 2021, the price of pure benzene of Sinopec was increased twice, with a total increase of 250 yuan / ton. As of January 28, Sinopec’s refineries uniformly implemented 4650 yuan / ton.

Since August last year, coke prices have been rising all the way, coking enterprises have higher profits, positive start-up and good sales. Crude benzene supply has been relatively stable, so far coke has increased 15 rounds, a total of 1000 yuan / ton, coking enterprise profit is considerable. In the first half of the month, the price of pure benzene in East China continued to rise, while the market of hydrogenated benzene was mainly rising. The demand for crude benzene was good, and the price of crude benzene rose. In the second half of the month, with limited transportation in some areas, high freight prices and less impact from transport vehicles, crude benzene prices recovered after the shock, and the trend of downstream related products pure benzene was mainly volatile. The pressure in East China and North China was more obvious. Downstream hydrogenated benzene manufacturers reduced their prices one after another, and the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene declined, which forced the crude benzene bidding price down. The overall crude benzene market fluctuated in the second half of the month The actor. As of the end of this month, the inventory of pure benzene is still high. Although the external price of crude oil and pure benzene is strong, the demand support is limited. The start-up of styrene and other units downstream of hydrogenated benzene has declined this month, and the maintenance of units is more, so the demand support is weak.

The overall operation rate of hydrobenzene enterprises is stable at about 65% in the near future, with little change this month. The production of hydrobenzene units is relatively stable near the Spring Festival, and some enterprises shut down in the early stage start operation one after another this month, with stable demand for crude benzene.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the pure benzene external market and crude oil market perform well, which has a certain support for the market. However, the price of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene remains volatile this week, and the fall of styrene price has a great impact on the overall industrial chain. The crude benzene bidding price remains stable at the end of the month, and the market activity is reduced near the Spring Festival. It is expected that the market will be stabilized before the festival.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (January 27): 11360.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,3-polybutadiene rubber was 11360.00 yuan / ton on the 27th, down 0.53% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of butadiene continues to weaken, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is a drag. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of January 27, the butadiene price was 6057 yuan / ton; on the other hand, the rubber plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Company stopped unexpectedly for some reason in the early stage, the market speculation price rose too fast, and there was a callback demand in the market; finally, near the Spring Festival, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and some businesses sold goods at low prices. According to the business news agency, at present, the quotation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market is slightly lower than that in the earlier stage, with the mainstream newspaper of Daqing at 11100-11200 yuan / ton, Qilu at 11200-11400 yuan / ton, Qixiang, Jinzhou and Sichuan at 10700-10900 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: low price of raw materials, soft demand. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will narrow down in the future.

As of December 22, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4007.50 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.93% from the beginning of the week, according to the data of business news agency.

On January 22, the fuel oil commodity index was 81.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.98% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 76.13% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Domestic marine oil raw materials support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 22, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 4000 yuan / T; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4100 yuan / T; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 3950 yuan / T; and the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4050 yuan / T.

This week, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the support for fuel oil price was limited. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.35% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 1.81% this week.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has decreased and its support for fuel oil has increased. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development board (ESG): in the week ending January 20, Singapore’s light distillate inventory decreased by 126000 barrels to a two-week low of 15.488 million barrels; Singapore’s medium distillate inventory increased by 604000 barrels to a three week high of 15.158 million barrels; Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 305000 barrels to a three week low of 21.999 million barrels. On January 19, Fukuang shale oil tender launched a total of 7000 tons of shale oil with a trading volume of 7000 tons. The weighted average price was 2658 yuan / ton, up 202 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that the fuel oil 180CST market is in a strong wait-and-see mood in the near future, the downstream demand is light, and the terminal purchase is mainly on demand. On the whole, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 5625 yuan / ton, up 0.22% from 5612.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 8.91% year on year. The price trend of phthalic anhydride in China was mainly volatile.

This week, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market rose slightly. The market situation of phthalic anhydride was general. The recent downstream demand had little change. The price trend of o-benzene was temporarily stable. The plasticizer market was mainly volatile. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market rose slightly. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the floor is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The goods on the floor are general, and the trading market on the floor has little change. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, with limited high-end transactions on the market. The mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton in the negotiation of neighboring France, 5400-5500 yuan / ton in the negotiation of naphthalene method; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5700 yuan / ton, the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in place, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride market rises slightly.

This week, the domestic price of o-benzene was temporarily stable, and the market price was maintained at the level of 4700 yuan / ton. This week’s trend was stable. The low domestic price of o-benzene was due to the bad influence of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene remained volatile. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, and the actual transaction price was discussed in detail The price trend is temporarily stable, the raw material o-benzene price is low, which is bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, but the downstream plasticizer market has improved, and the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride downstream DOP fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 9425 yuan / ton as of the 22nd, 0.53% lower than the price of 9475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The DOP raw material cost, ISO octanol price, DOP raw material cost, DOP enterprise equipment start-up, PVC price, and downstream customer demand were low. Plasticizer market rising power weakened, downward pressure still exists, transaction price is subject to real-time price, the overall DOP price is about 9200-9500 yuan / ton, DOP market rising power weakened, downward pressure still exists, phthalic anhydride price rise is limited.

In general, the recent crude oil price trend remains high, the domestic o-benzene price trend remains stable, but the plasticizer Market slightly falls, and the phthalic anhydride market price mainly fluctuates.

In the future, the price trend of domestic o-benzene is mainly stable, but the transaction market of plasticizer has a downward trend. The price trend of DOP in the future is slightly lower, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain volatile next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the domestic price of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin was stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products is 5100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable. The overall trend of paraffin wax market is weak and stable. Traders are cautious in taking goods, with obvious wait-and-see mood, and mainly purchase on demand in the downstream. At present, the ex factory price of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin in East China is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 5200 yuan / ton, that in Northwest China is about 5200 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell on January 21, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $53.13/barrel, down US $0.18. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 56.10 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.02 U.S. dollars. Crude oil WTI fell slightly on Thursday after data showed an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which made the market worried about slowing fuel demand and expected to rekindle. Meanwhile, U.S. stimulus measures were expected to limit price decline.

Liquid wax, liquid wax prices more stable this week, the overall trading atmosphere is light and stable. In terms of liquid chlorine, the market prices of liquid chlorine in North China and East China rose, while the prices in other regions were relatively strong, and the liquid chlorine market was mainly strong in the short term. In terms of demand, near the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises mainly need orders, replenish goods appropriately, and have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, while the overall trading atmosphere is general.

3、 Future forecast

Business community chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that this week chlorinated paraffin overall market trading atmosphere is general, wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong. The output of chlorinated paraffin kept low and the inventory kept low. With the strong support of raw materials, the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to be strong in the short term, and the possibility of a slight increase is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 1.00%, up 17.58% over the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide fell this week, with the commodity index of 86.46 on January 15.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3200 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The quotation of small material is 1150 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material is 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material is 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell this week. The price of PVC decreased from 7050.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6962.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.24%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 2.01%. This week, PVC prices fell slightly, the market is general, the downstream of calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm is general, overall, this week’s PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has fallen sharply recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, the output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds demand. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in late January.

After new year’s day, the East China liquid epoxy resin continued to negotiate in 20100-21500 yuan / ton barrels. Today’s market as a whole rose by about 1000 yuan / ton. The market offer was 21500-23000 yuan / ton. The factory offer was mostly 23000-24000 yuan / ton with limited supply. The delivery needs to line up. Among them, the mainstream negotiation of solid resin is about 17200 yuan / ton, and the orders of the current factory are increased compared with the previous period. In addition, the upstream raw materials also show signs of warming up, and the epoxy resin is on the rise obviously.

The shortage of supply is the main reason for the upsurge of liquid epoxy resin market. After a wave of decline, under the influence of the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the inventory of downstream factories has been basically exhausted, and the epoxy resin market has fallen to the break even point. Some factories have a single proposal to reduce the operating rate. After a short period of price balance, the terminal procurement has gradually recovered, but a few factories have been affected by extremely cold weather Gas affected the equipment failure. The epidemic was caused by the decrease of the factory operation rate. As the holiday approached, the logistics was tight and the inventory demand increased. However, the epoxy resin inventory was not large. With the arrival of a wave of demand, the factory had to queue up to pick up the goods. Under the tight supply, the factory’s offer was raised to 23000-24000 yuan / ton one after another.

In terms of plant, Nantong Xingchen 160000 tons liquid epoxy resin plant was restarted, and Huangshan Jinfeng 15000 tons solid epoxy resin plant was shut down for technical transformation. Guodu chemical’s epoxy resin plant is in the state of shutdown, mainly out of stock.

BPA rose again after a weak correction, with little increase. However, due to the increase of confidence of downstream shippers, shippers’ offer tentatively pushed up. The current mainstream offer is 13000 yuan / ton, and factories mainly stop offering, among which Changchun chemical offer is 12800 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan offer is 13500 yuan / ton. In terms of market, East China and North China offer is maintained at 12800-13000 yuan / ton. The market of epichlorohydrin, another important raw material, maintained a stable trend, with little change after the festival. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12200-12500 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of raw material bisphenol A in downstream resin plants is about 14000-16000 yuan / ton, while the price of epichlorohydrin is 11500-12200 yuan / ton. From this point of view, the current profit value of liquid resin is relatively low. After bottoming, it is reasonable that with the increase of terminal demand price, the business community expects that the short-term liquid epoxy resin will maintain 21500-23500 yuan / ton

Upstream fluorite prices remained stable, while hydrofluoric acid prices rose slightly. Overall, the ex factory prices of aluminum fluoride enterprises remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9166 yuan / ton on January 8, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price trend of fluorite in domestic market is stable for the time being. In the near future, some plants in the yard have been parked. The spot supply in the yard is tight, and the price of fluorite in the yard remains high. The operation of fluorite manufacturers in southern China is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the field is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the field is improved, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen slightly, and the terminal downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the purchasing sentiment has risen compared with before.

At present, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable. In addition, the price of upstream fluorite hydrofluoric acid remained stable, which failed to effectively boost the aluminum fluoride Market. The market price of aluminum fluoride was stable as a whole.

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: the price of upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rises steadily, which has a limited role in boosting the aluminum fluoride Market. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will keep stable in the short term.

This week, the domestic methanol market was mainly weak. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2282 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 2270 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.55% in the week, increased by 7.58% month on month, and increased by 3.42% year on year.

As of 1.8, methanol market price summary by Region:

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

Shanxi Province 2100-2130 yuan / ton cash out

Liaoning area: RMB 2220 / T

Fujian area: 2600-2650 yuan / ton

RMB 2450 / T in the two lakes area

Anhui: 2340-2380 yuan / ton

Henan Province: 2230-2250 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic methanol market showed a general performance, and the prices of the mainland and ports all declined. The overall situation of the mainland has declined due to the shrinking olefin procurement in Northwest China and the weak demand in Hebei and Shandong. The blockade of some road sections has affected the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi, but the degree of impact is uncertain at present.

In terms of external market, as of January 7, the closing price of methanol in CFR China was US $304.50-305.50/t, and that in CFR Southeast Asia was US $369.50-370.50/t. US Gulf methanol closed at 113.75-114.25 cents per gallon, while FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 343.50-344.50 euros per ton, down 3 euros per ton.

In the future, new units such as Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin and Shenhua Yulin are put into operation, the supply side is expected to increase, the downstream inventory is on the high side, and the overall demand is relatively limited. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market will be weak in the short term, mainly downward.

Maximum amplitude 34.29%

In 2020, the domestic ethanol market is mainly on the rise. According to the monitoring data of the business community (with 95% purity ethanol as the reference), the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the year is 5520 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the domestic ethanol market price is 7000 yuan / ton, with an annual price increase of 26.81%. The lowest annual price is 5212 yuan / ton on April 3, and the highest annual price is 7000 yuan / ton on December 31 The maximum amplitude is 34.29%. Under the influence of rising raw materials, increasing demand and low inventory, ethanol production in different regions rose in turn.

9 months up

The domestic ethanol market has been stable for a long time. In 2020, the price of ethanol will rise in nine months, with a maximum increase of 9.15%. During the Spring Festival in 2020, some production enterprises received production tasks and worked overtime to produce 75% medical alcohol, but most of them were mainly used in the surrounding areas of the province. During the Spring Festival, there was no inter provincial transportation, and 95% of the prices were monitored by the mainstream business community and collected passively. With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, foreign demand rose sharply, domestic ethanol production enterprises accumulated abundant inventory, and the price fell slightly. However, most of the overseas export orders are produced according to the demand, and the prices are mainly discussed in detail, which is good for the domestic ethanol market. In the fourth quarter, the price of corn, the raw material for production, rose, once again driving the ethanol market up sharply.

The price breaks through eight year high

According to the annual comparison chart of ethanol prices of business associations, the highest price of domestic ethanol market will reach a new high in nearly eight years in 2020. The last time the price reached close to 7000 yuan / ton was back to the beginning of 2011.

2 billion gal

In late March, the Renewable Fuels Association of the United States said that US ethanol producers may reduce their annual production by 2 billion gallons as the new crown outbreak continues.

254200 tons

The demand for disinfection was boosted. From January to September 2020, China’s exports of unmodified ethanol totaled 254200 tons, the highest in at least a decade.

45%

From March 2, 2020, China will no longer impose the anti-dumping tariff of 301 measures against the United States on the imported goods that the relevant enterprises meet the conditions and purchase from the United States according to the principles of marketization and commercialization. The modified ethanol (tariff No.: 22072000) imported from the United States will be levied at 45% tariff. Judging from the situation from January to September in 2020, there is no direct import of ethanol from the United States for the time being, and it is rumored that it will arrive as soon as mid December.