Since New Year’s Day, black varieties have stepped out of a relatively smooth upward trend, with the overall increase of nearly 10%. Today, iron ore main I1905 holds 955,000 hands, volume turnover 1.25 million hands, a substantial increase of 13,000 hands, up 1.61% to 535.5 yuan/ton, leading the rise in black goods. Next, we will make a further detailed analysis of the future market and trend.
1. Steady development measures have been introduced continuously, but macro downward pressure is still in place.
Recently, measures such as rapid and substantial reduction of the central bank, TMLF and early issuance of bonds have effectively boosted market sentiment. Various government departments at all levels have approved numerous projects of “capital construction supplement shortcomings board”. Some cities have introduced the “one city one policy” of marginal relaxation of real estate policy, which shows that the policy side is further turning to “moderate relaxation” to prevent the steady development of risk.
However, if we do not solve the problems of monetary transmission channels, mutual restriction of policies at all levels, and restriction of residents’consumption capacity, the effect and time of these policies will be greatly reduced. At the same time, the recently published economic data can only be understood as excessively pessimistic expectations that slightly exceed the market before, GDP in the fourth quarter will fall back to the lowest value since 1992, industrial added value and retail sales of social consumer goods. The total amount has also fallen to the lowest level in recent years, and the reports of some government documents and the recent “provincial and ministerial leading cadres adhere to the bottom line thinking and focus on preventing and resolving major risks” more intuitively show that macro-economy is still facing downward pressure, and iron ore should not be overly optimistic in the short term.
2. Iron ore fundamentals remain stable, but it is difficult to break through independently.
(1) Although the first quarter is traditionally off-season, short-term supply remains high.
Usually, in the first quarter, due to weather and other reasons, it is the traditional off-season for overseas mines; however, the data of overseas mines’shipment and arrival show that the short-term supply of foreign mines remains at a high level: as of January 20, the total shipment volume of Pakistan and Australia is 66.92 million tons, up 4.2 million tons/6.7% year-on-year; the arrival volume of northern ports is 30.47 million tons, down 74 million tons/2.4% year-on-year; and the expected arrival volume of northern ports is 21.67 million tons/year-on-year 10,000 tons, down 60,000 tons/0.3% year on year.
Due to the continuous improvement of environmental protection facilities, equipment and certificates, the domestic environmental safety supervision policy has been relaxed marginally over the same period of the year, and there are no major conferences or accidents in the near future, so the situation of geological and mining start-up is better. As of January 18, the productivity utilization rate of 266 mines in China was 60%, and the lunar calendar rose by 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year.
(2) The demand for replenishment of warehouses before the holidays is basically over, and the accumulation of port stocks will be accelerated.
At present, the demand for replenishment of steel plants before the festival has basically ended. According to WIND data, as of January 18, the available days of stock in steel mills were 32 days, and the lunar calendar increased by 3 days compared with the same period last year. According to MYSTTEL data, as of January 25, the available days of stock in steel mills were 34 days, and the lunar calendar decreased by 1 day compared with the same period last year.
And since late last month, the depot reduction cycle of iron ore ports has ended for nearly half a year, and the accumulation of port stocks will accelerate after the completion of pre-festival replenishment. As of January 18, port iron ore stocks stood at 143.73 million tons, which fell by 8 million tons/5.3% in the lunar calendar compared with the same period last year, and increased by 4.88 million tons/3.5% compared with the stocks on December 21, 2018.
(3) The demand for replenishment after the festival is higher, but the rhythm may be lengthened.
Due to the relaxation of environmental protection margin and the good overall profit of steel mills, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity is on the high side, which makes the steel mills have a certain demand for normal replenishment. As of January 18, the national blast furnace start-up rate was 64.92%, and the lunar calendar increased by 0.83 percentage points over the same period of last year.
However, in terms of rhythm, due to the difficulty of rapid and clear overall black trend after the year, high stock and stable arrival of ports and other factors, the total amount of iron ore is guaranteed. Steel mills are likely to adopt a prudent attitude, lengthen the procurement rhythm, and avoid periodic centralized procurement to stimulate market sentiment.
3. Material production will lead the direction of later period. It still needs to be prudent whether it can recover quickly after the festival.
In the near future, due to factors such as real estate rush-up and other factors, the off-season consumption of finished products exceeds expectations, the cumulative inventory speed of finished products is slower and the overall inventory level is lower at higher output; and based on the current inventory base, output and consumption level, the total inventory of finished products after saving is lower than that of the same period of last year; due to factors such as inertia of real estate construction and steady recovery of infrastructure, the short-term demand for finished products will still be maintained. Therefore, it is expected that the supply and demand fundamentals of “leading sheep” in the later stage will be relatively stable.
However, the following two issues still need to be concerned: (1) after a long period of real estate rush, whether the demand for early start of construction after the festival is still urgent, whether the large-scale resumption time is after the Lantern Festival or after the two sessions in early March, and the variables that may be brought by the statistics of non-inventory, will have a greater impact on inventory accumulation and market sentiment; (2) under the background of marginal relaxation of environmental protection, Tangshan’s new production limit has recently been put in place. It is still unknown when, how and how to implement the draft for soliciting opinions. Under the condition that the profit of the steel mill is still acceptable and the capacity of increasing production has been greatly improved, the steel mill will still try its best to maintain a high production level, and the supply of finished products will be increased in the later period.
Generally speaking, the replenishment of iron ore before and after the festival has basically ended, although the demand for replenishment is high, the supply will increase steadily, and the overall fundamentals are relatively stable. Although the market is optimistic about the post-festival market such as “leading sheep” finished products, the impact of factors such as rework time and sustained high production still needs to be carefully verified; therefore, it is not appropriate to be overly optimistic in the short term, and due to the rapid base difference. After repair and rapid price rise, iron ore has been on the high side, and it is difficult for iron ore to continue to break through independently and substantially in the near future. And we should guard against the risk of falling back and repeated shocks near key positions.