The domestic propane market saw a significant increase in August. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average market price of propane in Shandong Province was 4718 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 5343 yuan/ton on August 30th. The monthly increase was 13.25%, a decrease of 10.2% compared to the same period last year.

As of August 30th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ August 30th

East China region/ 5400-5550 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5350-5500 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5300-5400 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5300-5400 yuan/ton

In the first half of August, the domestic propane market showed a significant increase, while in the second half, the increase was slightly reversed. At the beginning of the month, the CP price increase was introduced in August, boosting market confidence. In addition, with low inventory in the region, refineries actively pushed up prices, and prices continued to rise until mid month. As of August 15th, the average domestic propane price had risen to 5550 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.64% compared to the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the market entered a stage of correction and consolidation, and downstream consumers began to resist high priced sources of goods, especially the tightening of PD device profits, which affected the start of production. To stimulate sales, the focus of propane trading fluctuated and shifted downwards.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in August 2023, with propane at $470 per ton, an increase of $70 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $460 per ton, an increase of $85 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current propane market prices remain high, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, leading to an increase in inventory. It is expected that the propane market will continue to decline slightly in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of p-xylene increased in August. As of the end of the month, the domestic factory price of p-xylene was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.41% compared to the initial price of 8800 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.11%.

In August, the supply of paraxylene was relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, there was little change in spot supply. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, and PX external market prices remained at a high level. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were 1042-1044 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1067-1069 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is over 60%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend has slightly increased.

The international crude oil prices in August were mainly volatile. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.10 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $84.42 per barrel. The crude oil prices in August slightly decreased by 2.0%. On the one hand, concerns about the prospects for global economic growth have put pressure on crude oil. On the other hand, the weak economic data in China has dragged down the oil market, coupled with the instability of the European and American banking industry, a decrease in risk appetite, and pressure on the oil market. However, crude oil production has decreased, and Russian oil exports did not meet the quarterly plan in July, which was lower than expected at 370000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia may postpone its voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day until September; In addition, supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and Nigeria support oil prices. The news is mixed, with crude oil prices mainly fluctuating, and the domestic xylene market is limited in terms of growth.

In August, the domestic PTA spot market trend slightly increased, with an average price of 6082 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the end of the month, an increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 6036 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, restart and maintenance coexist, and the overall load has increased. Currently, the industry’s operating rate is around 80%, and Hengli Petrochemical’s Huizhou 2.5 million ton new project is gradually mass produced, with a boost in supply. The downstream terminal polyester maintains a high level of over 90% overall and starts construction. As raw materials rise, the cash flow pressure of polyester factories increases, and inventory pressure has increased, with short fiber inventory at a high level. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines at the terminal has slightly declined to below 63%, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines has continued to decline. The pressure on polyester inventory and cash flow has increased, and the polyester load has decreased. Affected by the poor terminal market situation, the price increase in the domestic xylene market is limited.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that the current supply side and demand side of the crude oil market will continue to play against each other. The downstream PTA market has slightly increased, and there has been no significant improvement in demand in the textile industry. Market expectations for demand are not optimistic, and crude oil support is strong. Overall, it is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will remain stable in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market increased in August. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3980 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.80% compared to the initial price of 3560 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.40%.

In August, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market increased significantly, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable. Recently, the supply of goods on site was normal. In Hebei, due to the reduction of rainy weather, the situation of on-site sales improved, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers increased their factory prices. Downstream demand was normal, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate increased. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream purchases of nitro compound fertilizers have been average, while procurement in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has been normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have started operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has mainly increased. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5000 to 5100 yuan/ton, Shandong region is between 3800 to 4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is between 3800 to 3900 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased in August, with an average price of 2016.67 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.95% compared to the price of 1940 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2100 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. The market supply is normal, and recent sales have been good, while downstream demand has correspondingly increased. On the market transactions have improved, and the price of raw material nitric acid has increased, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of the ammonium nitrate market has increased.

In August, the domestic liquid ammonia market price slightly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the initial price of 3533.33 yuan/ton. The increase in liquid ammonia is mainly due to the tight supply performance of the main production areas in the north, which has a positive support for the market. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and sudden production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi have led to a short-term decline in enterprise operating rates and tight supply. Production enterprises generally experience vehicle queues and other goods, with favorable factors supporting the rise in liquid ammonia prices. The rise in upstream liquid ammonia prices has positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate is supported to rise.

Recently, downstream on-demand procurement has been the main focus, with little change in demand. However, the market price of raw material liquid ammonia has increased, and the price of nitric acid has mainly increased. The positive support is relatively strong. Ammonium nitrate analysts from Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may slightly increase in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On August 21, the price of pure benzene was 7855 yuan/ton, and on Friday (August 25), the price of pure benzene was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from last week and 2.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was at 7850 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 100 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yesterday’s night trading negotiation was around 7920 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the high level of pure benzene in East China will fluctuate in the morning.

Some institutions believe that OPEC+may need to further reduce production, and there is still uncertainty about the outlook for local demand, leading to a slight increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 10 rose by $0.16 per barrel or 0.20% to $79.05 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 10 rose by $0.15 per barrel, or 0.18%, at $83.36 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2310, fell 12.1 yuan to 625.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.6 yuan to 626.7 yuan/barrel in the evening trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the pure benzene market in East China experienced a volatile decline, with downstream customers seeking bargains to stock up, and spot resources trading was weak. Market participants were mainly on the sidelines. The quotation from Shandong Refinery continued to decline, and the daily transaction volume was slightly higher than the demand, with a decrease in transaction volume.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, the domestic carbon black market has remained stable and slightly declined during the cycle. On August 21, the domestic carbon black N220 quotation was 10166 yuan/ton, mainly due to the continued decline in raw material coal tar prices in some regions, which has provided cost support for carbon black enterprises.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, as of August 21, the market price of coal tar was 4760 yuan/ton, and the price of coal tar has decreased during the cycle. Downstream products continue to decline, and downstream factories are facing increased losses. The overall buying atmosphere for raw coal tar downstream factories remains sluggish. Under the continuous fermentation of bearish factors, it is expected that the coal tar market price will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a decent level of operation, but they have a strong resistance to high priced carbon black sources, and their purchasing enthusiasm is average. They often maintain a low price state for inquiries, and there is currently no significant benefit on the demand side. Recently, the price policy has remained unchanged, and the activity of factory procurement has decreased compared to the previous period. Terminal demand is in a weak and difficult to improve stage.

Overall, under the strong bearish atmosphere in the market, incoming inquiries have maintained a suppressed attitude, and demand is sluggish and difficult to improve. The bearish news on the market is widespread, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will operate weakly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating, with spot prices fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.18% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 93%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. Inventory continues to rise, overall at over 170000 tons. Supply side support for spot market weakened.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been average recently. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly. Although supported by higher upstream propylene and increased terminal operating rates, the efforts are limited. The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has significantly affected the compression of acrylonitrile, leading to a decrease in prices.

Last week, the price of butadiene remained stagnant. The high crude oil prices loosened during the week, weakening support for sellers’ mentality. In addition, due to the increase in spot prices in the early stage, the acceptance of high priced goods by terminals has decreased. In the second half of the week, trading has been cold, and the market is under pressure. The domestic butadiene market may enter a consolidation market.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent decline in styrene market prices has led to a pullback. Recently, downstream demand has continued to be weak in the early stage, and the cost of pure benzene remains strong. However, the loosening of crude oil prices weakens the confidence of operators, and it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market may weaken due to the long short tug of war.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fluctuated, weakening support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to narrow range consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from August 11 to August 18, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene fluctuated and decreased, with 7268.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week and 6968.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decrease of 4.13%.

In terms of crude oil: Since the beginning of this week, crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days, with a slight increase on Thursday. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $84.12 per barrel. Crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days. Recently, due to weak economic data in China, coupled with unstable banking in Europe and America, concerns about the global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, The crude oil price closed continuously lower. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have played a supportive role in oil prices. In addition to the optimistic expectation of China’s oil demand growth, which continues to boost oil prices, during the summer demand peak season in the northern hemisphere, there are still positive factors for international oil prices. Thursday’s closing price rose, and overall, international oil prices are still at a high level.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 150 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7833 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for six consecutive weeks, and the price has slightly declined this week.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the overall performance of the pure benzene market this week was weak, and the macro market news at the beginning of the week was generally weak. The crude oil market fell for three consecutive days, and the external market of pure benzene fell, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market, with prices slightly declining. The overall performance of the downstream is also weak, with some styrene and other devices being shut down for maintenance. The market’s expectation of future demand is weak, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market. The overall weak trend of the industrial chain runs, and by Friday, with the strength of styrene, the pure benzene market has slightly rebounded, and market prices have slightly rebounded.

This week, the overall operation of the pure benzene industry chain was weak, and the hydrogenation benzene market followed the decline. Under the influence of upstream factors, the overall auction price of crude benzene this week decreased, with Shanxi region executing 6800-6900 yuan/ton and Shandong region executing 6950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton compared to last week. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have been boosted by the downward trend in raw material coking coal prices this week. Currently, the cost of entering the furnace has decreased, corporate profits have recovered, and the comprehensive operating rate has significantly increased. The supply of crude benzene during the week was relatively loose compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the start of construction has slightly declined this week, and the overall demand is still good. However, there is a strong mentality towards holding down the price of raw material crude benzene, and the enthusiasm to participate in the auction has significantly decreased this week. In the future market, the price of pure benzene is currently fluctuating at a high level, and the overall industry chain still has support. However, the downstream price pressure mentality is strong, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is declining. Without demand support, it is expected that there may be some downward space in the crude benzene market next week.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of PET water bottles has been stable, with an average price of 7320.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On August 13th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 669 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.70% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a sulfuric acid price of 178.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 60.96% year-on-year.

The upstream market has significantly increased, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market continues to rise, with sulfur prices rising from 933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 973.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.29%. Over the weekend, prices fell by 13.86% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9483.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 7.16% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 16000.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 11.44% year-on-year. The downstream market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8257 yuan/ton on August 7th, and the average price on August 11th was 8242 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.17%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9012 yuan/ton on August 7th, and 9000 yuan/ton on August 11th. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.14%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9237 yuan/ton on August 7th, and the average price on August 11th was 9187 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.54%.

This week’s polyethylene narrow adjustment. In terms of cost: This week, international crude oil showed an upward trend, which has a certain supporting effect on polyethylene prices. In terms of supply: The overall change in domestic polyethylene supply is not significant, and production is expected to increase next week. The demand for plastic film is in the off-season, and the follow-up of greenhouse film orders is slow. There is a good demand for packaging bags and wrapping films.

It is expected that polyethylene production will increase next week, and demand is expected to advance positively. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate and adjust, with little change.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, this week (7.29-8.4), cost driving was dominant, and the overall price of raw silk increased. Some enterprises held prices and were not in a hurry to sell. In the face of rigid demand, the enthusiasm of weaving enterprises to purchase goods has increased recently, and the price of dried cocoons has also turned red. As of August 4th, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 475000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to last week and 9.26% year-on-year; The average market price of dried cocoons is 154000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22% compared to last week and 8.45% year-on-year.

On the spot market, the trade circulation atmosphere is relatively warm, and the purchase and sales of cocoon silk continue to maintain a fierce atmosphere. Some silk reeling enterprises are accelerating their stocking speed, and weaving enterprises are also accelerating their stocking progress. The number of high-quality raw silk transactions continues to increase compared to last week. In the atmosphere of rising cocoon and silk prices, the cumulative increase in silk wool prices from June to July was basically around 10000 to 20000 yuan. However, it is worth noting that as the basic raw material for silk wool quilts, the price of tussah silk wool has not changed much in the past two months. The price of dried cocoons continues to rise, including regions such as Sichuan, Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Yunnan, where spot purchases are active.

On the summer cocoon market, the fresh cocoon market volume in major production areas such as Guangxi continues to decline, continuing the summer cocoon style. Summer cocoons in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other regions continue to be listed one after another, creating a strong atmosphere of panic buying. Mulberry orchards in more areas of the southern main production areas are entering a recuperation period, preparing for the autumn cocoon market in late August. With the continuous increase in silk prices, it is expected to push up the price of autumn cocoons for mass release in August.

Amidst the rapid price increase in the front-end, weaving companies have raised some product prices this week. Although the impact of the increase in raw silk raw materials is evident, some companies can only place orders at the original price, and the overall order situation is still not ideal. It is understood that there are also some companies that sell well in the wholesale process of silk wool products, such as real silk home textile companies, and real silk underwear companies, which have slightly adjusted the prices of their products. However, similar to the recent trend of some commodities, if the overall demand does not increase and profits are compressed, will the power of replenishing raw materials in the future decrease? It needs to be closely observed.

According to convention, the fabric clothing “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is expected to start around mid August, and the off-season in July is approaching its end. However, as August enters this week, in addition to the highlights of the situation, weaving enterprises still report that the order arrival situation is not satisfactory. In the commodity market, overall commodities rebounded in July, rising for two consecutive months, and most of them have corrected and consolidated today. The price increase during the traditional off-season still requires order fulfillment during the market transition from off-season to peak season from August to October.

Comparing the price data since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the price of raw silk has reached a new high since 2020. The continuous supply situation of cocoons since last year, combined with El Ni ñ o weather, has resulted in strong cost support for cocoon silk varieties. However, at present, the demand for terminal weaving is relatively weak, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the market is still accumulating. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the absence of obvious new news and the interweaving of long and short positions, raw silk prices may exhibit a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a sulfuric acid price of 160.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 71.22% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 846.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 886.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.40% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 9566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9483.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.87%. Weekend prices fell by 7.16% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 16000.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 11.44% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of August 4th, the spot nickel quotation was 174500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in recent times.

On a macro level, the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 46.4% in July, slightly lower than expected and shrinking for nine consecutive months; Manufacturing activity in the eurozone experienced its fastest contraction since May 2020 in July. The recent PMI data released in Asia shows that manufacturing activity in China, Japan, and South Korea remains weak, suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Recently, there have been frequent positive policies in China, but the bullish sentiment has basically materialized, making it difficult for market confidence to further rebound before more positive policies are announced.

In terms of supply: Russian nickel long-term cooperation orders flow in, and customs clearance conditions are not limited by whether imports are profitable, supplementing domestic supply. There is an oversupply of domestic resources, and various factories and warehouses have accumulated some. The nickel production in Jinchuan has decreased, and the Xinjiang smelter has resumed production; Small and medium-sized smelters such as Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have all maintained stable production; The production of two large nickel enterprises in Zhejiang and Hubei continues to climb; The new production line in Guangxi last month continued to ramp up production this month. In August 2023, refining nickel enterprises in various regions will continue to increase production. After the resumption of production at Xinjiang nickel factories, it is expected to recover to over 1000 tons per month. It is expected that domestic refined nickel production will continue to increase by 5.93% to 22330 tons in August. In addition, the electric nickel project jointly constructed by Chinese enterprises in Indonesia is expected to be officially put into operation in August, with a full production capacity of up to 50000 tons per year.

Demand: downstream stainless steel. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel fell 2.3% on a weekly basis to 1.003 million tons, dominated by the digestion of 400 series resources. Downstream demand is still dominated by Major appliance, and according to Industry Online, air conditioning will still maintain a certain growth rate in September. New energy vehicles. According to the Passenger Transport Association, the retail volume of Alternative fuel vehicle in China’s market in July was 647000, up 33% year on year and down 3% month on month; The transaction of Nickel(II) sulfate in the market was weak, the price continued to fall, and the production of ternary precursors weakened month on month.

In summary, the domestic supply of pure nickel is relatively loose, and the supply of imported nickel is gradually increasing, limiting the shipment volume of traders. Demand differentiation, supported by low inventory, is expected to be dominated by short-term wide fluctuations in nickel.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly decreased this week. As of the 31st, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the 23rd price of 9585.71 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.59%.

Supply side: Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 9200 to 9600 yuan/ton. Poor demand has led to severe losses for hydrofluoric acid enterprises. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for market, resulting in a decrease in spot supply of hydrofluoric acid and a weak order situation for manufacturers. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market remains sluggish, with raw material fluorite prices slightly declining and downstream refrigerant production declining, Less than 60% of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has started construction, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory, which has affected the weak market situation of hydrofluoric acid.

Raw material side: Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has been temporarily stable, with an average price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of the 31st. This week, the price trend has been temporarily stable, and the operating rate of fluorite enterprises has maintained. Upstream mining is still tight, and outdated mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are operating insufficient, which is environmentally friendly The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, there is still support for the price of fluorite in the market. The price of raw fluorite has not changed much, and hydrofluoric acid companies are under heavy pressure.

On the demand side: The market for refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has slightly increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has slightly decreased. In addition, the refrigerant market has experienced a long-term downward trend, approaching quota issuance. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and supply and cost factors are driving refrigerant enterprises to increase prices. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a has increased. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have raised factory prices, but the demand for consumer orders has not significantly improved. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24500 to 25500 yuan/ton, and the export is still relatively sluggish. The actual demand has not significantly increased, and the increase in refrigerant prices is limited. The upward trend of some refrigerants has had a certain positive impact on upstream raw materials, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream raw material fluorite market remains stable, but fluorite companies have a strong intention to increase prices, and the downstream refrigerant industry has slightly declined in production. For hydrofluoric acid procurement, it is light, and hydrofluoric acid inventory is high. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market is unlikely to improve in the short term, with hydrofluoric acid prices mainly fluctuating at low levels.