1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on July 24th was 2566 yuan/ton. On July 28th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2616 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.95%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on July 24th was 3687 yuan/ton. On July 28th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3687 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium prices rose this Monday, while ammonium prices remained stable. There is some support on the cost side, with an increase in downstream inquiries and a positive market atmosphere. The advance order for ammonium nitrate has reached late August, and some manufacturers have suspended or received a small amount of orders. Diammonium is currently in tight supply, with an increase in inquiries and a good performance in the export market.

As of July 28th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2650 yuan/ton, while the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Shandong region is around 2700 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3350-3650 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong region is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s ammonium phosphate analysts believe that recent inquiries in the ammonium phosphate market have been good, with downstream compound fertilizer production rates increasing, demand following up, and market prices pushing upwards. With the support of pending orders, it is expected that the trend of ammonium phosphate market will be dominant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a low level in July. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6650 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.53% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%.

At the beginning of the month, production enterprises stopped production for maintenance ahead of schedule due to losses, resulting in a decrease in supply and a shortage of goods in the market, leading to an upward trend in the domestic ethanol market. In mid month, downstream inventory is mainly consumed, and price fluctuations are limited. In the latter half of the month, after the price boost, high-end transactions were limited, and demand remained stable in the short term. Cost support was weak, and the ethanol market returned to calm after rising.

In terms of cost, as we enter July, supported by the decreasing supply of high-quality surplus grain in the domestic corn market, grain storage trade is reluctant to sell and prices are high. Ports and downstream deep processing enterprises are raising prices to replenish inventory, driving the domestic corn market prices to continue to be strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shangye Society, on July 27th, the benchmark price of Shangye Society corn was 2771.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% compared to the beginning of this month (2760.00 yuan/ton). The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, in the early part of the month, domestic ethanol production enterprises gradually entered maintenance, supply decreased, and prices continued to rise. As of the end of July, there have been no significant fluctuations in the domestic ethanol supply side: Hongzhan Laha’s load has been boosted, Shenglong Parking, Jilin Fukang, and Tianyu have maintenance plans. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, there will be a slight reduction in production in the chemical industry in the short term, but the demand loss is limited, and the short-term stable operation is the main demand. The demand for Baijiu is weak, and the short-term demand for ethanol is stable.

Future market forecast shows weakened cost and supply support, and stable demand operation. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly declined this week, with sulfuric acid prices dropping from 162.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 152.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 6.17%. Weekend prices fell 80.46% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 830.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 876.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.62%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.54% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9585.71 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 10.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 15516.67 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 17.76% year-on-year. The downstream market has stabilized at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend has declined. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has recently risen, while the domestic light rare earth market has risen. On July 23, the rare earth index was 452 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 66.79% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy in China have all increased. As of the 24th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 560000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to the 15th; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 465000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.37% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium metal was 585000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of metal praseodymium was 622500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 472500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28% compared to the price on the 15th.

The recent trend of the light rare earth market has been rising, and the prices of young rare earths in the first half have been declining for a long time. Affected by the increase in inquiries, the prices quoted by the holders are relatively firm, and the actual transaction prices have also increased. Recently, the prices of praseodymium neodymium rare earths have been raised in response to the increase in raw material prices. In mid to late July, some long-term orders were purchased, providing strong support for the light rare earth market, and the price trend of the light rare earth market increased. However, downstream magnetic material companies are very cautious in purchasing due to frequent price fluctuations of praseodymium and neodymium in recent times, and the transaction situation is still subject to certain restrictions. The overall price of rare earth products is mainly rising.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: The supply of rare earth raw materials has been slightly tight in the near future, with orders and reserves of neodymium iron boron enterprises increasing slightly. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise slightly in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded after rising, and spot prices have fluctuated in both directions. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.43% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the load in the ABS industry has been increasing recently. In the early stage, there were more enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current operating rate has rebounded to a high of 86%, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. The increase in inventory was significant, with an overall increase of 117000 tons. Recently, supply side support for spot prices has weakened.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this week was average. Among them, the market for raw material acrylonitrile has declined, while the price of cost end propylene has decreased. Due to independent load reduction and unplanned shutdowns in the early stage, acrylonitrile enterprises have some positive supply side effects, but demand is weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment among operators has intensified. The flow of goods on the market is not smooth, and prices have stagnated after falling.

This week, domestic butadiene prices were sideways. The strong prices of external and domestic production enterprises have boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, while the downstream construction and profit situation are still good, and there is some support for demand in the face of the market. With the arrival of imported cargo at the port, port inventory has increased, and some early maintenance equipment has restarted, leading to an increase in domestic production. Supply side expectations have led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in butadiene market prices has weakened.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently risen. In the early stage, international oil prices drove the pure benzene market, with strong cost support, and the styrene market followed suit. Recently, the styrene port went to the warehouse smoothly, and there was export news. It is expected that the short-term styrene Spot market will mainly rise.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have basically completed their stock preparation operations at the beginning of the month, and their enthusiasm has declined. Due to factors such as season and power restrictions, the operating rate is still at a low level. The manufacturer has a cautious mindset and the overall demand needs improvement.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have seen mixed ups and downs, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory has also increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a consolidation market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 14, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 7525.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday.

This week, the enterprise quotation in Epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable, and the market is very competitive. Recently, the price of raw propylene has fluctuated in a narrow range. The price of raw glycerin is mainly stable, and the impact on the cost side is limited. The capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has declined compared with the previous period. The factory production and marketing are under no pressure, supporting the market’s rising mentality. The main downstream epoxy resin market is running strongly, and the purchase of raw materials needs to be followed up. The focus of Epichlorohydrin market negotiation is stable and rising.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on July 13th, the reference price for propylene was 6370.75, a decrease of 2.26% compared to July 1st (6518.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for epoxy resin on July 13th was 12933.33, an increase of 3.19% compared to July 1st (12533.33).

Analysts of Epichlorohydrin from the Business Agency believe that the cost has little impact at present, and the supply and demand support still exists. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to be weak. From July 10th to 14th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 16280 yuan/ton to 16066 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 1.31%, a month on month decrease of 3.33%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.18%. The supply is relatively abundant, traders’ quotations are relatively lower, and the trading atmosphere has weakened.

The supply side and the market supply side are relatively abundant. Shanghai Lianheng 350000+240000 t/a mother liquor unit has been overhauled since June 11, which affects the rectification units of Huntsman Corporation and BASF. In addition to the supporting maintenance, Ningbo Phase I 400000 t/a unit has been shut down for maintenance, the other Phase II 800000 t/a unit has been operated at low load, and Yantai unit has been operated at reduced load, but Shanghai 600000 t/a unit has returned to normal operation.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has seen a significant increase in the domestic market price of pure benzene. The international crude oil price continued to rise, and some downstream ethylbenzene and Caprolactam devices were restarted, increasing the demand for pure benzene. On July 13th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangye Society was 6397.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.45% compared to the beginning of this month (6183.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: Currently, there is abundant supply of aniline, with downstream off-season. Downstream factories are not operating high, and demand is weak. The raw material pure benzene has been listed for price increase, resulting in increased costs and a slight increase in domestic aniline prices. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the buying momentum on the demand side is weak, and the demand for the cold industry is slightly shrinking. The peak season demand in the pipeline market has not yet started, and the market follow-up is relatively average, resulting in insufficient overall boosting power. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is bearish.

In the future market forecast, the current transaction is weak, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will mainly be sorted out.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 12th, the price of PET water bottle level has been stable, with an average price of 7190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On July 11th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 652 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.49% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 23.48% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 30, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton, which was 234 yuan/ton higher than that of January 1, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4666 yuan/ton), or 8.57%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the overall domestic market of Dimethyl carbonate in the first half of 2023 is in a fluctuating upward trend. In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market rose and fell, with an overall increase of 2.86% in the second quarter. In January and February, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate was good, and the downstream staged stocking supported the rising market, with an increase of 3.57% in January and 10.00% in February. In March, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate weakened, the demand support became loose, and the market price fell, down 6.49% in March.

In the second quarter of 2023, the Dimethyl carbonate market will first fall and then rise, with an increase of 5.56% in the second quarter. In April, Dimethyl carbonate market fluctuated slightly, and the demand support was limited, with a decline of 0.69% in April. In May, the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to run downward, and the effective support in the market was insufficient, with a decline of 4.20% in May. In June, the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to rise. Some devices in the plant were shut down for maintenance, and the supply in the plant was tight. The supply side supported the market upward, and Dimethyl carbonate increased by 10.95% in June.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall Dimethyl carbonate market is operating stably. The trading atmosphere in the market is general, the overall supply of the supply side has increased, and a certain wait-and-see atmosphere has been added in the market. The Dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market will mostly adjust its operation in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7166 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1 (reference price of 7400 yuan/ton of propylene glycol), the price was reduced by 234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, the overall market situation of domestic propylene glycol showed a rise followed by a decline, and finally ended with a slight decline. In the first quarter, the overall propylene glycol market showed an upward trend, with tight spot supply of propylene glycol and good downstream demand. Supported by both supply and demand, propylene glycol increased by 8.11% in January and 16.94% in February. In March, downstream demand for propylene glycol weakened, and propylene glycol opened a high point and fell back, with a decrease of 12.54% in March.

In the second quarter, the overall market situation of propylene glycol showed a slight increase followed by a weak decline. In April, some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the supply of propylene glycol tightened. The supply side supported the upward movement of the market, and propylene glycol rose 4.38% in April. In May, downstream demand for propylene glycol did not boost significantly, with loose support on the demand side, resulting in a decrease of 8.02% in propylene glycol. In June, the propylene glycol market continued to operate in a weak downward trend, with insufficient effective support on the market. In June, propylene glycol fell by 10.79%.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market is relatively light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. New orders are generally traded, and the propylene glycol data analyst from the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the domestic Shandong propane market saw a rebound in growth and quickly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on July 3rd was 3963 yuan/ton, and on July 7th it was 3780 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 1.6%, a decrease of 37.26% compared to the same period last year.

As of July 7th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ July 7th

East China/ 3750-3800 yuan/ton

North China/ 3850-3950 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3700-3850 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 3800-3850 yuan/ton

This week (7.3-7.7), the Shandong propane market continued to decline, with prices rapidly falling. Due to refineries raising prices one after another over the weekend, downstream consumers have a clear resistance towards high priced goods, resulting in a significant decrease in buying gas. In addition, the impact of imported low priced goods has increased inventory pressure on refineries. In order to stimulate sales, prices have rebounded this week.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in June 2023, with propane at $450 per ton, a decrease of $105 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $440 per ton, a decrease of $115 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, after the price correction, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has improved, and it is expected that the propane market will be slightly weaker in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14140 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 180 yuan/ton compared to June 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14300 yuan/ton), a decrease of 1.26%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that from June to present (6.1 to 6.30), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has experienced a slight decline. In early June, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC continued to be weak. Shandong large factories slightly lowered the price of organic silicon DMC, leading to a slight decline in the overall market. As of June 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14000-14500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.84% in the first ten days.

In late June, the overall organic silicon DMC market continued to decline slightly. Due to the continued weak demand and general support for raw materials, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market remained mainly light. Some organic silicon DMC suppliers narrowly lowered the prices of organic silicon DMC by around 100-200 yuan/ton. Before and after the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply and demand news of the organic silicon DMC market was relatively calm, with downstream demand being cautious. The overall market consolidation and operation were sideways. As of June 30, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14000-14300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.26% during the month.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average, with limited trading of new orders on the market. Weak costs also provide limited cost support for organic silicon DMC. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price List of Ethylene Oxide in June

At the end of May, large factories lowered their prices by 500 yuan/ton. In June, epoxy ethane basically maintained a horizontal operation of 6000 yuan/ton. According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on June 30, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

Entering July, due to the impact of the hot weather, there are expectations of further reduction in demand release from downstream construction sites, and off-season expectations for terminal demand, which may lead to a loosening of the current supply-demand balance trend of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer. The expected decrease in production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises may lead to a decrease in demand for ethylene oxide.

Low load operation of large factories

At present, the price of ethylene oxide is relatively low, and some manufacturers have hit the cost line, facing increasing pressure to lose money. From the supply side perspective, in June, some ethylene oxide factories had passive production reductions or proactive load reduction to balance enterprise benefits. In addition, some production factories switched to producing ethylene glycol or adjusted their own usage ratio to alleviate production and sales pressure. The low load operation of large factories in July may continue.

The price of ethylene oxide in July is expected to maintain stable operation

Overall, the supply and demand of ethylene oxide are weak, and the price is horizontally stagnant at a low level. From the perspective of cost, the domestic mainstream processes are divided into Naphtha, ethane/mixed alkane, external ethylene production, MTO route, etc; Among them, the Naphtha route accounts for about 49%, followed by ethane and ethylene production. The cost of ethylene production is relatively favorable, and the cost pressure on crude oil routes is relatively high.

In the short term, the cost support for ethylene oxide is weak, and the supply and demand pattern is also difficult to improve. It is expected that the price will continue the current horizontal trend, and the price of ethylene oxide is likely to maintain stable operation in July.