1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market price was stable this week, with the average domestic price of 3680 yuan / ton as of Friday, which was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of isomeric xylene is generally stable, compared with the previous period, the market price is slightly sluggish, and the transaction is not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. As the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not clear, the market is concerned about the trend of oil price and the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of the global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the supply side and demand side formed expected pressure on oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival: shale oil production in the United States rose sharply; the second outbreak of the global epidemic was confirmed; and the trade friction between Europe and the United States continued to escalate. Affected by this, crude oil prices briefly broke through the previous high and then fell back, and the probability of oil price fluctuations in the future increased. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 4.51%, Brent futures was down 5.14%, WTI futures was down 2.96%, and Dubai futures was down 2.19%.

In terms of downstream, PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest external price is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3670 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 444 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is stable at 4400 yuan / T, and the external price of o-benzene is about 515 US dollars / ton FOB Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA inventory situation in the supply cost side. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will adjust slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the domestic isopropanol price rose first and then fell in June, and it still rose in the whole month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11500 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 11975 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In June, domestic isopropanol prices rose first and then fell. In the first ten days of June, the price of isopropanol rose all the way due to the influence of acetone. On June 1, the average price was 11500 yuan / ton, and on June 10, the average price was 13933.33 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 21.16%. Then, with the decline of acetone, isopropanol also further followed the decline. As of June 28, the average price was 11975 yuan / ton, down 14.06% from June 10.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of acetone is closely related to the price of isopropanol. The market price of acetone has also changed from the rising trend at the beginning of the month to the stable transition in the middle of the month to the gradual reduction. As of the end of the month, the price of acetone has returned rationally. At present, the mainstream market has fallen below 10000 yuan. In the short term, the negotiation range in East China is 9600-9900 yuan / ton. The price of isopropanol by acetone method also follows its adjustment, the price rises first and then falls.

In terms of propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province fluctuated frequently this month. Overall, in June, the propylene market price in Shandong went up. At the beginning of the month, the average domestic propylene price was 6642.73 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average propylene price was 6871.72 yuan / ton. Within the month, the price was increased by 2.09%. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. The profit of propylene isopropanol is still very considerable. Due to the decrease of foreign trade orders, there is still room for price reduction.

International markets, as of June 23, the U.S. isopropanol market continued to fall deeply, while the European isopropanol market closed down sharply. Overseas disinfectant market demand for isopropanol decreased, overseas orders decreased, isopropanol factory operating rate decreased, and the price decreased. In terms of domestic trade, there are many inquiries, mainly waiting and taking care of the goods. Up to now, the negotiation range of Shandong isopropanol is about 11500-11900 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol is 11500-11800 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 12600-12700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of business society, the price of raw material acetone is rational, the profit of isopropanol produced by propylene method is considerable, and the cost support is limited. International market, isopropanol market continued to fall. In terms of demand, foreign trade benefits slowed down, and export orders decreased significantly. There are many domestic trade enquiries, mainly waiting and taking care of the goods. On the whole, in the short term, the price of isopropanol is likely to continue to decline, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.

On June 23, the sulfur commodity index was 35.85, up 0.73 points from yesterday, down 65.48% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.01% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China is 653.33 yuan / ton, up 2.08% per day. On Tuesday, refineries in various regions adjusted their quotations according to their own shipments. The overall price fluctuation in the domestic sulfur market was relatively small. Except for the increase in the price of sulfur fixation in East China, the price of solid liquid sulfur in North China and Shandong remained stable. On March 23, Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in East China was increased by 20-40 yuan / ton, with an offer of 630-700 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in North China was increased by 510-610 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in Shandong was increased by 660-670 yuan / ton.

At present, the external market news of sulfur is relatively flat, the market is not good for pulling, and the market is stable, medium and weak. In the later stage, it is still necessary to observe the release of downstream demand and the price dynamics of the external market. In the downstream, the phosphate fertilizer enterprises are stuck in operation, the domestic market performance is flat, the overall inventory pressure of the enterprises is small, the demand for fertilizer in the later autumn is good, and the price may rise.

Future market forecast: at present, the market is lack of positive pull, and the market lacks guidance of substantive news in the short term. It is expected that the domestic sulfur market will operate stably as a whole.

The international oil price fell first and then rose, while the domestic gasoline price fell slightly. The MTBE market was short of positive results, and the overall price remained stable. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE on June 19 was 3900 yuan / ton, only 0.43% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

This week, the international crude oil price is in the rebound trend after the fall, but the recent international crude oil market is not good enough to follow up, and the international oil price cannot break the floor price of $40 / barrel of refined oil price adjustment. The consumption in the lower reaches of most regions in the North continues to be good, while the demand in some regions in the south is reduced due to rainfall, and the demand in the gasoline market is favorable and insufficient. The decline of gasoline price suppresses the market price of MTBE.

However, the apparent consumption of refined oil in April was 27.64 million tons, up 2.1% year on year, of which gasoline was up 4.53% year on year. In the first ten days of June, the ground refining operation rate in Shandong Province rose to a high level of about 76%, and the increase of gasoline production boosted the demand for intermediate materials.

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency thinks: domestic gasoline price is still possible to decline, but at present, refinery construction is relatively high, which supports the demand for MTBE and other intermediate materials. It is expected that MTBE market price may fall in the near future, but the decline is limited.

The seasonal off-season of asphalt itself overlaps the high domestic asphalt operating rate, and the domestic asphalt market price is under pressure. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on June 19, the asphalt price was reported as 2300 yuan / ton, down 1.08% compared with that at the beginning of the week.

The data shows that the operation rate of domestic asphalt plant has increased from 61% to 65% in recent years, and the asphalt supply in South China, East China, Shandong and northwest regions has increased. In May, the total output of domestic asphalt was close to 2.8 million tons; the monthly growth rate was more than 300000 tons, and the quantity of imported asphalt in May was about 440000 tons, which was basically the same on a month on month basis. In June, Sinopec and its refineries are expected to maintain a high level of construction, and the market supply pressure will not be reduced.

The high supply of asphalt market meets the low seasonal demand of asphalt. In the near future, the demand in Shandong and North China is stable, and the users in the middle and lower reaches purchase on demand; the rainy weather in East China limits the construction and terminal demand, and the shipment of refineries and traders slows down. The weather in Northeast and Northwest China is good, there are many terminal road construction projects, and asphalt needs to be supported.

This week, the international crude oil price is in the rebound trend after the fall, but the recent international crude oil market is not good enough to follow up, and the international oil price cannot exceed $40 / barrel. From the news point of view, the crude oil market does not have any effective direction guidance for the time being, and the market is worried about the second outbreak of the epidemic, so it is not optimistic about the crude oil market. The asphalt market will lose the support of cost and price.

Business analysts believe that the short-term international oil price is under great pressure at the $40 / barrel level, and the asphalt supply shows no signs of reducing, and it is expected that the domestic asphalt price will continue to bear downward pressure.

1、 Price data

As of June 19, the average ex factory price of domestic main refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 4500 yuan / ton, down 1.69% from 4580 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

On June 18, the naphtha commodity index was 55.79, down 0.49 points from yesterday, 45.63% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 32.08% higher than 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices fell slightly this week, with ample inventories.

Upstream: according to the monitoring of the business news agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 37.12 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 39.05 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of more than 5%; Brent crude oil is 39.72 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 41.51 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of 4.80%. At the OPEC + ministerial meeting, the assessment of the record production reduction agreement released a signal of increased implementation rate of production reduction, offsetting some emotional disturbance of demand concerns caused by the epidemic. Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, and the naphtha drop was mostly affected by the sharp drop in crude oil prices last week.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market price fell this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3550 yuan / ton, down 2.47% on last week. The domestic xylene market price also declined this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3650 yuan / ton, down 2.39% on last week. The domestic inventory pressure is gradually prominent, and the risk of oversupply is once again hyped.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business club, this week’s naphtha refining fell slightly, with sufficient inventory and general downstream purchasing sentiment. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will continue to decline in the near future, with the average price range of 4100-4400 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable. This week, the average ex factory price of main carbide manufacturers was 2690.00 yuan / ton, up 4.81% year on year. Overall, this week’s carbide market is temporarily stable, with the carbide commodity index at 70.48 on June 12.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week is temporarily stable: the quotation of oveganeng calcium carbide this week is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shaanxi coal industry calcium carbide this week is 2550 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Neimenggu Zhonglian calcium carbide this week is 2760 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide this week is 2750 yuan / ton/ Tons, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable.

On the whole, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market is temporarily stable this week. At present, the quotation of small materials is 530 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 550 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 660 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, with general cost support, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price this week temporarily stable. The price of PVC was 6337.50 yuan / ton, down 4.70% year on year. This week PVC price is temporarily stable, the market situation is general, and the enthusiasm of the downstream for calcium carbide procurement is also weakened. As a whole, PVC market this week has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream is high, with limited increase, and the purchase enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide is weakened. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may fall slightly in mid June.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4833 yuan / ton on June 8 and 4833 yuan / ton on June 12, and the price remained stable this week.

The commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on June 12 was 71.96, which was the same as yesterday, 34.24% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 12.70% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of chlorinated paraffin is stable. The ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5200 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3900-4800 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4900 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

At present, the raw material market is dominated by high-level operation. The price of wax in the upstream feed liquid remained stable and the cost support was limited. The raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated steadily, and the price was blocked. The downstream demand is limited and the transaction situation is poor.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association believe that the chlorinated paraffin market is currently in a stalemate. The price of raw materials is mainly high and stable. Some enterprises adjust flexibly and need to take more goods. Due to the poor demand of terminal enterprises, it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of June 5, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6733 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than that of this Monday, 8% higher in the week, and 933 yuan / ton higher than that of early May, 16% higher.

Brief review of butanone market in May

First, briefly review the market trend of butanone in May. After the labor day in May, the price of domestic butanone market rebounded rapidly on the 6th and 7th. At that time, the main advantages were driven by the sharp rise of acetone and the low level of factory inventory after replenishment of positions in the downstream before the festival. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 7th, the reference average price of domestic butanone factory was 6233 yuan / ton, 433 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival, and then the market maintained stable operation for a week, The main reason is that the release of downstream demand is still insufficient and the rise is weak. Until May 15, the factory had a strong desire to increase, and the price slightly increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. However, the real problems of the supply and demand side still exist, and the downstream conflicted with the high price mentality. On May 19, the market rebounded at a stage, the factory failed to meet the inventory pressure, and the quotation slightly decreased. In the following days, the market was mainly narrow. Until the 25th, affected by the sharp rise of acetone and crude oil market, the mentality of butanone market players improved, the contradiction between supply and demand eased, and the market quotation rebounded. As of May 31, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory reference price of butanone in China was 6233 yuan / ton, up 433 yuan / ton or 7.47% compared with that at the beginning of the month. The maximum amplitude is 7.47%.

Analysis and forecast of market situation in June

At the end of May, the steady rising momentum of the market supported the butanone market in June. Since the beginning of June, with the sharp rise of crude oil market and the sharp rise of acetone market, the butanone market has been strongly supported. The mentality of butanone market players is improving, and the downstream market is also replenishing, and the market price keeps rising with the increase of demand. Since the beginning of the month, the butanone market has been rising for 5 consecutive days. As of June 5, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory reference price of butanone in China has risen to 6733 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1, it has risen 500 yuan / ton in 5 days, an increase of 8%. Compared with the beginning of May, it has risen 933 yuan / ton, an increase of 16%. At present, the reference factory price of domestic butanone in East China market is around 6900 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 900 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the reference factory price of domestic butanone in North China market is around 6500 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the reference factory price of domestic butanone in South China market is around 7200 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 1100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May.

In terms of supply and demand, in May, Fushun Petrochemical resumed the operation of 30000 T / a plant, with a small increase in supply. At present, butanone plant in June has been operating smoothly in the near future, and there is no maintenance plan. On the downstream side, the process of domestic resumption of production is good. For the next demand expectation in June, the commencement of downstream adhesives and slurry is expected to be further improved.

In terms of cost, with the sharp rise of butanone price in the first week of June, the industry profit should be increased compared with the previous period, and the profit will increase accordingly. At present, the production enthusiasm of butanone enterprises has been improved, and the downstream demand has been gradually opened. It is hoped that the butanone market will recover a good profit in the early stage as soon as possible.

On the whole, the market price of butanone showed signs of stopping falling and rising at the end of May. In June, the supply and demand of butanone market was more optimistic than that in the earlier stage, the confidence of the industry was improved, and the factory inventory was low. In the first week of June, the price of butanone rose for 5 consecutive days, and the market was affected by the rising of international crude oil 6, with a positive attitude. As a result, there is little room for the butanone industry’s production profit to continue to fall sharply.

The butanone analyst of the business agency boldly predicted that the inflection point of the butanone market might be this month. Of course, considering the market trend of the narrow volatility of the butanone market in May, and the market impact from the macro perspective, the following market may still have insufficient supply and demand benefits, as well as the great uncertainty of external factors such as foreign public health events and exports, the domestic butanone market will not be excluded There is still the possibility of another decline.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of June 5, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11700 yuan / ton, up 533 yuan / ton or 4.78% compared with June 1, up 866 yuan / ton or 7.04% compared with the beginning of May, up 1633 yuan / ton or 16.04% compared with the beginning of April.

Since the second quarter of 2020, the domestic n-propanol market has risen all the way, with an increase of more than 16%

After the Spring Festival in 2020, affected by public health events, logistics and transportation, the domestic n-propanol market has been dominated by low-level operation from February to March, while the downstream is used and purchased, with general demand. The factory produces on demand and mainly supplies contract users. Due to the different development of chemical industry in different countries, the application of n-propanol is also quite different. In China, n-propanol is mainly used as raw materials for the production of n-Propyl Acetate, with market demand accounting for about 65% and direct use as solvent only accounting for about 8%.

In April, the sharp rise of isopropanol led to the flying of n-propanol and it

At the beginning of April, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole still maintained the weak low-level operation in the early stage. Until the middle of April, affected by the sharp rise of the market of isopropanol, the market price of isopropanol once broke through 13000 yuan / ton, and the inventory was low. Many downstream users began to replenish n-propanol instead of isopropanol as a solvent. Therefore, since the middle of April, the demand of domestic n-propanol market has increased significantly, The factory stock is tight, and the price is also rising. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on April 30, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol factory was 10933 yuan / ton, up 900 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, up more than 8%.

N-propanol continued to rise steadily in May

Since the beginning of May, although the price of isopropanol has fallen, the early rise is still the same, and the advantage as a solvent is still not significant, so this month’s n-propanol market is still stable and rising. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on May 31, the average ex factory reference price of n-propanol in China was 11166 yuan / ton, 230 yuan / ton higher than that in early May, an increase of more than 2.3%, 1100 yuan / ton higher than that in early April, an increase of nearly 11%.

In the early days of June, the isopropanol market rose again slightly, driving the market of n-propanol to keep up with the rising sentiment. As of June 5, Nanjing: the manufacturer Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the production unit of n-propanol was operating normally, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol for external purified water was 10500 yuan / ton (ex warehouse price of cash purified water). Shandong Province: at present, the overall inventory of n-propanol market is low, the ex factory price of purified water and the self raised price of the port including packaging have been increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of n-propanol of some enterprises in China on June 5, 2020 (for reference only)

Enterprise name price type price (yuan / ton including tax) specification remarks time

Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. ex factory price: 10500 yuan / ton; purified water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: excellent; June 5, 2020

Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11500 yuan / ton barrel content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

Ningbo Haorui Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11500 yuan / ton barrel content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

Jinan today he Chemical Co., Ltd. ex factory price 10600 yuan / ton purified water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. factory price: 10000 yuan / ton, purified water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: excellent; June 5, 2020

Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd. factory price: 10500 yuan / ton net water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

In the upstream, propylene oxide in the upstream of n-propanol was stable after the market fluctuation in May, and the overall increase was still obvious, with a monthly increase of 12.55% and a monthly amplitude of 26.61%. At the beginning of June, although the market fluctuated slightly, the overall trend in May and June still had a positive impact on the n-propanol market.

In the downstream, the market of n-Propyl Acetate downstream of n-propanol was relatively stable as a whole, and the manufacturer’s quotation was mainly stable. On the 3rd and 4th, some dealers made a small downward adjustment for the smooth delivery quotation, which had little impact on the overall market trend.

According to the prediction of the data division of the business association, at present, many favorable factors still exist in the n-propanol market. It is expected that in the first ten days of June, when the overall market is high and strong, and the inventory is low, the market will rise again.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly consolidated. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market is 12250 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market is 12300 yuan / ton, up 0.41% in the week. The price is 7.19% higher than that of the same period last month and 7.34% lower than that of the same period last year.

This week, the MDI market quotation was firm and maintained, and the negotiation was slightly light. Kostrong’s guidance price is stable this week, and the task volume will not be assessed; the guidance price of Ryanair factory rises, with limited supply. After the resumption of production of a plant in Shanghai or the extension to the middle of June, the main factories in the North began to implement weekly settlement this week. The attitude of suppliers is the same, and the market continues to be strong. In the trade market, the agent’s quotation is firm and the delivery is cautious; the middleman’s profit margin can still hear the transaction price lower than the mainstream price. Recently, affected by the lower price of us gold market, the post market mentality is slightly different. Distribution downstream demand side inquiry buy light, just need small order mainly. However, the main downstream areas such as refrigerators, automobiles and plates are slowly improving, which will drive the distribution market in the later stage.

Raw materials, pure benzene: this week, the price of pure benzene fell in the north and rose in the south. As of Thursday, June 4, the main negotiation in East China was around 3550 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton compared with last Thursday, and that in Shandong was around 3600 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last Thursday.

Aniline: the aniline Market is stable in the week. From the perspective of raw materials, the price of Shandong hydrogenated benzene is higher driven by the rise of crude benzene. The average bidding price of pure benzene in Jinling week is 3530 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton higher than last week, and the cost support is stronger. Jinling and Huatai aniline plants in Shandong Province both reduced their load by half, with East China shipping as the main source. The sales volume is expected to decrease this month compared with last month. As a result, aniline market supply decreased. Downstream just need to take goods, aniline enterprises stable shipment, price stable operation.

Downstream, spandex, the current market trend of spandex is flat, the supply of manufacturers is stable, the industry starts 80% up, high-level operation. The cost side support performance is average, the downstream terminal market is not in high mood to receive orders, and the actual transaction volume is discussed in detail. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation is 36000-37000 yuan / ton; the reference for 30d spandex mainstream negotiation is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for 40d spandex mainstream negotiation is 28500-30000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic MDI market quotation will continue to be firm, waiting for the weekly manufacturer price guidance and the manufacturer’s supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene on May 1 was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price 3020 yuan / ton), and on May 31, the price of pure benzene on May 31 was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton), up 580 yuan / ton from May 1, up 19.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 28 to 31, with a price of 3600 yuan / ton; the lowest price is from May 2 to 5, with a price difference of 640 yuan / ton, with a price of 2960 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: in May, international oil prices were generally good. Oil producing countries continued to push forward production reduction activities, and the demand for crude oil and refined oil rose to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a state of oscillation, and the uncertainty of trade relations affects the oil price. Compared with April 30, Brent oil price increased by 14.71 USD / barrel, or 74.78%; WTI oil price increased by 13.99 USD / barrel, or 64.03%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.385 USD / barrel, or 48.51%; WTI oil price decreased by 24.93 USD / barrel, or 41.02%.

2. Products: Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times this month, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.

3. Outer disk: boosted by the favorable crude oil, the outer disk oscillated higher in May. In May, South Korea’s import of pure benzene rose by 74.33 USD / ton, or 22.96%; East China’s import of pure benzene rose by 66 USD / ton, or 19.35%.

4. Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene in Shandong was 5100 yuan / ton on May 1, 5416.67 yuan / ton on May 29, up 6.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 19 to 24, with a price of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the rise of styrene is mainly affected by crude oil, and the actual spot shipments are relatively small.

Aniline: the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton on May 1, 4466.67 yuan / ton on May 29, down 6.94% this month. Aniline fell twice this month, while the rest remained stable. The MDI and auxiliary operating rate in the downstream of aniline are still low, and the demand for aniline is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producing countries are considering extending the cut to the end of 2020. OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10 to continue to pay attention to the production reduction meeting. And oil price is not only affected by supply and demand, but also by economic constraints. Uncertainty in trade relations could trigger oil price shocks.

2. Market: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected.

In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but the short-term oscillation still exists.

The international crude oil is relatively high, the gasoline market demand is good, the market price is rising, and the domestic MTBE market follows the gasoline market up. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE this weekend was 3666 yuan / ton, 1.85% higher than that of last week.

With the further increase of temperature in summer, gasoline terminal consumption will still perform vigorously. Meanwhile, in June, there will be more orders for the main gasoline purchased from outside. The gasoline delivery of refineries will be smooth, the raw material procurement of middlemen will be more active, and the overall transaction atmosphere of MTBE market will perform well, which will push the manufacturers up actively. However, in the middle of the week, there was a part of low-priced trade source impact on the market, and then MTBE market price rebounded upward again.

Since next week, there will be cooling weather in the north and south, and gasoline demand will fall for a short time, which is expected to drive the MTBE market price down for a short time.