1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China at the beginning of this week was 533.33 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price at the weekend was 503.33 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, down 5.63%, 62.99% compared with last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur price trend was reduced by a narrow range, and the sulfur quotation of individual refineries was temporarily stable according to their own shipment. On the port side, the inventory is still high, with small factories and traders occasionally entering the market for enquiries and relatively limited transactions. In the week, refineries all over the country continued to maintain low inventory operation, because environmental protection and production restriction problems still exist, and downstream factories still maintained low level to start operation, and major production enterprises made downward pricing in order to alleviate inventory sales pressure, among which, the quotation in East China was temporarily stable, the price of sulfur in Shandong was significantly reduced by 30-60 yuan / ton, and that in North China by 30 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is stable, moderate and downward, and the local market is up and down. In Shandong Province, the price trend was stable and rising, up 3.53% in the week, and the average market price was increased by 10 yuan / ton. The price rise is mainly caused by traders’ stock up and partial supply reduction. The downstream demand is continuously depressed, without substantial improvement, unable to support the market upward. In addition, with the Spring Festival approaching, in order to ensure that the inventory is not under pressure, the enterprises give priority to the stable price of goods, and the short-term benefits are hard to be realized.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are chloroform (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business agency, at present, the port inventory is high, the downstream factories purchase on demand and small orders, and there is no substantive good guidance on supply and demand. In addition, the internal and external support is weak, so most of the operators are cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that sulfur will be sorted and operated in the short term, depending on the plant conditions in the future.

1、 Price trend:

On December 27, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 62.91, unchanged from yesterday, 38.33% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 102.01 (2014-01-09), and 41.18% higher than the lowest point, 44.56 on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week’s Hydrogenated benzene market is slightly lower. By Friday, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China was 5750-5800 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week. In terms of the price difference, the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is narrowed this week, the loss of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is increased, there are many maintenance plans in the near future, some units may reduce the operating rate, the enterprise’s delivery pressure is large, and the on-site delivery and investment are weakened.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil, the overall trend of oil prices this week was volatile. As of Friday, WTI futures rose 1.72%, and Dubai futures rose 0.81%. ; pure benzene: the external price of pure benzene rose in a narrow range in the week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 200 yuan / ton, and the port inventory of pure benzene continued to rise. Downstream: this week’s price correction of toluene and xylene came from the feedback of traders. The market was cautious. Compared with last week, the turnover of this week fell by more than 20%, and the port inventory rose slightly, about 20000 tons.

Three, trend forecast:

Next week, we will continue to focus on the market transaction status, port inventory, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. At present, the trend of pure benzene and its downstream products is general, and there is no obvious positive support in the short term. In the near future, the intention of maintenance is increasing, the upstream crude benzene market has room for decline, and the hydrogenation benzene market has room for decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA66 in 2019 is different from that in 2018. This year, the weak spot price of PA66 fell. The imbalance between supply and demand is the main color of domestic PA66 market in 2019. As of December 25, the average price of PA66′s mainstream offers was about 23050.00 yuan / ton, down 36.24% from the beginning of the year.

Analysis of influencing factors:

At the beginning of the year, Ineos, a European Petrochemical producer, declared Force Majeure for its acrylonitrile plants. The company announced that the ACN supply of its plant in green lake, Texas, encountered force majeure, with a capacity of 545000 tons / year. Previously, the company also announced that the supply of ACN at its plant in hill Sanders, UK, suffered force majeure, with a capacity of 280000 tons / year. In addition, Taiwan Formosa Plastics and Thailand PTT Asahi chemical also have their own maintenance plans in spring. This led to an increase in the spot price of acrylonitrile at that time. Affected by the rising cost side, it is generally considered that the good is the support. However, all this happened in the environment of weak demand for PA66, which further reduced the profits of the chip factory by adding the cost side pressure to the already difficult PA66.

After the adipic acid festival in the upstream, the downstream returned to work at a peak, the demand improved, and the offer picked up. However, in the first half of the year, the supply continued to be abundant. Although the cost of pure benzene rose intermittently, the overall performance of the market was weak and negative. The stock pressure is general, the on-site operators have a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and they need more space for negotiation. In the first half of this year, the main theme of the imbalance between supply and demand of PA66 slices remained unchanged, and the downstream factories continued to be weak in taking goods. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, the traders go with the market, and the trading is difficult. Most of the year’s decline was completed in the first half of the year, and the domestic brand PA66 fell nearly 23.96% in the first half of the year.

At the end of August and the beginning of September, Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission released the notice on adjusting the key projects in 2019, mainly involving the adjustment of key projects in and out. One million ton PC polycarbonate project of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was withdrawn, and the 200000 ton nylon 66 new material project of Tianchen Qixiang announced on July 25 was added. This year, Tianchen Qi Xiang is the industrial technology giant who broke the monopoly of PA66 raw materials and founded the first adiponitrile project in Zibo. After the completion of Tianchen Qixiang’s industrial base, it will break the technology monopoly of foreign countries, end the blank of domestic technology industry and the history that adiponitrile relies on import and its pricing is controlled by people. However, this good news makes PA66 practitioners feel complicated. The shift of Shandong key projects to nylon 66 means that PA66′s production capacity continues to expand. Now, the technical barriers of adiponitrile have been solved, and the cost of PA66 will be gradually reduced in the future. It is expected to be a long-term impact on China’s PA66 market. Under the background of the imbalance of supply and demand, the market trend is difficult.

The following traditional peak season “golden nine silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. The spot supply of PA66 market continued to be abundant, and the downstream factories just needed to take the goods, but the demand did not improve and continued to be weak. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, and the trading is more flexible and detailed. In the middle of the third quarter, the US tariff delayed to release the good news, the terminal market temperature in the peak season was good, the periodic price recovery of adipic acid market surged, all of which were overshadowed by the imbalance of supply and demand, and the overall impact on PA66 market was limited. Combined with the decline of PA66 this year, it is felt that the long-term trend of increasing competition in the industry.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the market of PA66 in 2019 is weak and stable after falling. The reason is that this year’s macroeconomic situation is really not good, and the downward pressure on the economy is obvious. The trade friction between China and the United States has a great impact on the trading atmosphere of the commodity market. But the main reason is that the business club believes that the price of PA66 market experienced a sharp rise last year, and the cost end of downstream factories was under too much pressure, which led to a significant reduction in the whole downstream demand this year, as well as in the engineering plastics field, spinning field, ties and other fields. In addition, adipic acid has limited support on the cost side. The intermediate hexanedionitrile broke the monopoly, and the capacity expansion was negative on the cost side of PA66. Multiple factors have led to oversupply in the overall market since this year, presenting a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The market is short of buying gas, and the industry tends to wait and see. At present, the cost pressure of domestic polymerization plants is still large, and the situation is relatively difficult. Its impact is likely to cause PA66′s mid – and long-term market to improve.

Commodity index: on December 20, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.81% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 20, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 11, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton. In the middle of this month, the price slightly increased by 0.1%, with a small range.

Industry chain: upstream: at the beginning of December, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased, with the quotation of 10500 yuan / ton on the first day and 12000 yuan / ton on the fourth day; however, it has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton since the mid day; 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton on the ninth day, 150 yuan / ton to 11350 yuan / ton on the 16th day, and 50 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton on the 20th day; since the second half of the year, propylene According to the market trend of nitrile, its high price appeared in the late September, and the price began to be lowered in a step-by-step manner in October. The overall five-month reduction was about 2000-3000 yuan / ton, with a shock range of about 15%. This month, the market shock first went up and then down. Downstream: in winter, the construction amount of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a greater impact. Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice last week and stopped production until January 1, 2020. The manufacturer has relatively sufficient stock. However, due to the shutdown of vehicles under the fifth five year plan and the increase of freight cost, the market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer has increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the construction in winter determines that the downstream procurement has little impact on the price of raw materials, and the price reduction in the middle of the year is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production cost; the current impact on the market is the environmental protection control, the manufacturer in Gongyi, Henan Province stops production, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the transportation cost leads to the general increase of the price. To sum up, polyacrylamide will maintain a small fluctuation trend in the future market, and pay attention to the stock situation in the future market and the requirements of environmental protection after new year’s day.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is temporarily stable this week, with a quotation of 1700.00 yuan / ton, down 14.40% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market this week was temporarily stable, with the urea commodity index at 79.07 on December 20.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong have risen and fallen. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1680 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1730 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: at present, the domestic market has a general trading atmosphere, the manufacturer continues to ship orders in advance, and the sales pressure is relatively small. The demand is light, the agricultural dealers still wait and see the majority, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have low enthusiasm for replenishment, and the rubber plate factory starts at a low level. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable and weak. Next, we may focus on the bidding situation in India.

Industry chain: upstream products as a whole seem to have declined slightly: the price of natural gas has declined slightly, from 4213.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4150.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.50%, compared with the same period of last year, down 22.67%; the price of liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3256.67 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the same period of last year, overall, the urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 6000.00 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of the downstream rubber plate plant has a negative impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. According to urea analysts of business association, at present, some manufacturers throw in advance orders, so the sales pressure of manufacturers is relatively small; however, the demand is still weak. In addition to the low starting level of rubber plate manufacturers, the industrial demand has also declined, and the amount of agricultural fertilizer preparation is not large. At present, the domestic market does not have a greater positive support. It is expected that the short-term market will be consolidated at a low level.

1、 Price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week (12.16-20), the domestic adipic acid market did not change much, maintaining a narrow adjustment pattern, and maintaining the price level of last week. As of last weekend, the mainstream price was generally 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the market situation of adipic acid has stabilized, and the prices in most regions have not changed much. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation, and the benefits of cost have not been transmitted in time. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern, the rebound rate of this month is 8% as of December 20, but the conduction effect of cost is lagging behind, which does not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. It is expected that the price of adipic acid will follow up at the end of the month due to the rise of cost side.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, year ago, the downstream procurement was not strong, and most of the procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stocking was not high. In December, the nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the health news agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. This month, the market trend was stable Weekly prices fell slightly, with a range of – 0.16% (as shown in the figure above). PA66′s recent market still hasn’t improved. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor that makes it difficult for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

3、 Future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will remain stable years ago. In the middle and later stages, it is unlikely that the price will reverse. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, because the upstream pure benzene price has risen, with the cost effect transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may appear small The market rebounded.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average domestic PVC mainstream price on December 12 was 7052.5 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the average domestic PVC mainstream price of 7087.5 yuan / ton on Thursday (05), up 7.26% compared with the same period last year. On December 12, the PVC commodity index was 89.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 10.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 53.37% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: since November, PVC has been pushing up for several weeks. Recently, it has become stable and weak, and the heat has gradually subsided. Recently, the overall starting load of PVC enterprises has increased. After the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods has increased slightly, but the overall situation is still tight. The actual trading atmosphere is not warm, and the market transaction price is mostly concentrated in the middle and low end. Due to the rigid demand of the downstream procurement multi-dimensional system and the cautious wait-and-see attitude, the quotation of the merchants is mostly adjusted according to their own conditions, which is a little loose, resulting in a narrow range of PVC price consolidation and a small drop in price. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 12, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6700-7130 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7100-7200 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7100-7220 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 7320-7420 yuan / ton. Prices across the region were high and consolidated, with some prices down slightly.

Recently, due to the impact of environmental protection in the northern heating season, Hebei started a class II response to heavy pollution weather, and some downstream product enterprises also had the news of production reduction, increased production suspension, and limited demand for PVC. In addition, the previous weeks pushed up, and the price of PVC has been pushed to a high level in the off-season. At present, the main reason is to digest the previous increase. In the absence of obvious favorable fundamentals, the upward trend of PVC lacks practical support The weak trend is expected.

Futures: Recently, PVC market fell. Now the main contract has been converted from 01 to 05. The price difference between 01 contract and spot contract is large, and part of the forecast will be repaired. On the 11th, the main contract fell in the night of 2005, closing at 6570 yuan / ton (- 25), and the position increased by 2838 to 379000. Futures closed at 6550 on the night of December 12, down 5, opening high and going low.

News: in November 2019, the domestic PVC output was 1641700 tons, an increase of 0.29% month on month and 1.03% year on year.

 
Industry chain: crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate broadly in the near future, and ethylene market will fall. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The enthusiasm of PVC downstream products enterprises is not high, affected by environmental protection, the production is increasing, and the demand for PVC is limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 12, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including pet (1.16%) and PA66 (0.06%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, PC (- 1.78%) and PP (- 1.21%), respectively. The average price of this day was – 0.11%.

III. future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: Recently, PVC futures have fallen sharply, and the spot market is also fluctuating and falling. At present, the inventory is still at a low level, and the prices of most manufacturers are still firm. It is difficult to completely change the tight supply of goods in a short time. It is expected that in the short term, the high consolidation of PVC will be the main thing, and the prices of some enterprises will be fine tuned. However, with the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods will increase, and downstream demand will increase Limited and other factors, the aftermarket may be under pressure.

I. price trend

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the phosphoric acid market recovered from a high level and fell in a step-by-step manner. According to the large data list of business association, the average price of phosphoric acid on October 1 was 5500 yuan / ton, and on December 13 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 3.33% in the fourth quarter. On December 13, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.49% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: since October, the price of phosphoric acid market has been stable and downward, and the whole market is weak. The average price fell 3.03% in October, slightly fluctuated in the middle of November, and the price was temporarily stable. As of December 13, the average price fell slightly by 0.31%, with a quarterly decline of 3.33%. At present, the market performance of phosphoric acid in the fourth quarter is average, and the market is weak. Due to the rising cost of raw materials in the third quarter, the phosphoric acid industry as a whole rose, and the price has been in a high consolidation state. However, the price of phosphoric acid in this year is higher than that in previous years. In the fourth quarter, the start-up of phosphoric acid market is on the low side, the yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is tight, the price of phosphoric acid is supported by the cost side, and the attitude of the industry is not active. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the demand is less, and the downstream demand is not followed up enough, and the trading is And it is expected that there is no plan to store goods in the downstream, and the purchase is just needed, and there are few new orders for merchants. Compared with the general market of thermal phosphoric acid, wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good. Because the production process and process cost of wet process phosphoric acid are lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, the corresponding market quotation is lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, which has a high market acceptance. In the near future, the goods are better, and most of the downstream products are willing to choose wet process phosphoric acid with low price at the end of the year. As of December 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5316.67 yuan / ton, Hubei Xingfa group quoted 5500 yuan / ton, Wengfu Dazhou quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Guangxi Mingli group quoted 5550 yuan / ton, Sichuan KANGLONG chemical quoted 5100 yuan / ton, Sichuan Yida quoted 4700 yuan / ton. Prices across the region are generally weak, stable and consolidated, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and the market is generally weak.

Industry chain: in winter, the production of the mine itself is limited, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the overall phosphorus ore market will still be weak and stable in the near future. Recently, the overall market of yellow phosphorus trading is light, and the price is slightly lower. The phosphate Market is under construction, and some enterprises mainly digest inventory. The phosphate market started to increase, while prices were temporarily stable and rising.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, phosphoric acid has been in a high consolidation state in the near future. The price is higher than that of previous years. Affected by environmental protection, the operating rate is low, the downstream demand is reduced, the on-site trading is flat, and the wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good for shipment, but the overall market is still weak. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be weak and stable in the short term, with some downside risks.

I. price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 15300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: titanium dioxide market price is stable this week. The price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 14600-15800 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 12800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 18500-20000 yuan / ton. This week, dragon enterprises held a meeting to maintain the stability of prices. The main business of each cargo holder is collection and business volume. The market competition may be more and more fierce. In the case of strong titanium ore, titanium dioxide market has been stable, and the market price is single.

Industrial chain: the price of titanium concentrate in Western Panzhihua kept stable this week. The supply of imported titanium ore is tight and the market price is high. Panzhihua titanium ore price consolidation mainly. At present, the price of 38 titanium ore is 820-840 yuan / ton, 46, 10 titanium ore is 1260-1320 yuan / ton, 47, 20 titanium ore is 1300-1350 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: this week’s titanium dioxide prices have stabilized, but the overall price is still low, and the market is off-season. Near the end of the year, the shippers charged more business volume and collection. In the short term, the market price of titanium dioxide has been stable and the fluctuation range is not large. The actual operation is a single discussion.

I. price trend

Caprolactam has continued to decline since the beginning of winter, with a 15.08% drop now, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On December 2, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11066 yuan / ton, and on December 6, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10700 yuan / ton. This week, the price dropped 3.31%. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on December 6 is 53.82, which is flat with yesterday, 46.18% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 0.64% higher than the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic caprolactam continued to decline this week due to weak terminal demand. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10300 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shanxi yangcoal is 10600 yuan / ton. The 200000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11200 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industry chain: the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak, the confidence in the industry is insufficient, the terminal procurement is cautious, and the market is down. At present, trading is cold and weak in the short term. Domestic pure benzene market, East China pure benzene market remains firm, import market negotiation goes up, domestic trade negotiation reference 5400-5450 yuan / ton, far month goods negotiation is 5200-5350 yuan / ton, on-site wait-and-see increase, external price increase does not produce effective boost, downstream weak support is insufficient. Domestic PA6 spot price this week is temporarily stable. The spot source supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient. At present, the domestic PA6 production and trade e-commerce companies offer low-level operation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business club think: the upstream raw material cost pressure is still on, the downstream slice market atmosphere is cold, the production and sales are flat, and the demand side has not changed. Although the equipment maintenance enterprises have been restarted one after another, there is still resistance. It is expected that the decline of caprolactam will gradually slow down in the later period, with low consolidation as the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to raw material market and terminal demand.

According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by o-phthalic method in China was 6312.5 yuan / ton, 0.20% higher than the price of 6300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 19.07% year on year.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China increased slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China fluctuated. The downstream factories maintained just need to purchase, the factory inventory pressure remained, high-end transactions were blocked, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5800-6000 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and some enterprises are on the market The price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly after the transfer out of the plant.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

This week, the downstream DOP price rose slightly, the price of isooctanol declined, and the cost of DOP raw materials remained stable. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and rising, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is maintained at 7300-7550 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is normal, in addition to the upstream ox price, affected by the cost, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period, but the increase range is limited.

I. price trend

This week, the propane market is generally stable, with individual manufacturers mainly adjusting to their own conditions. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4062.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4057.5 yuan / ton, down 0.12% in the week, down 9.08% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is fair. As of November 29, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4040 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4050 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4180 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4150 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4030 yuan / ton.

Propane rose and fell in different ways this week, with the market generally stable, and manufacturers mainly made minor adjustments based on their own shipping situation. In the early part of the week, the international crude oil rose slightly and the cost of imported gas landed rose slightly. In addition, the civil gas market rose strongly, supporting the refinery mentality, and the price remained stable. This week, the weather is cooling down, and the market just needs to consume more. The news is beneficial to the multi industry mentality, which plays a certain role in supporting the propane Market. In addition, CP price was released in December at the end of the month, and propane butane increased by 10 USD / ton, which is good for the market. Individual manufacturers pushed up slightly. Downstream rigid demand entered the market to replenish goods, and the market transaction atmosphere was OK.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

According to propane analysts of business agency, CP price rose slightly in December, which is good for market mentality, and civil gas trend is strong and up, which supports the market. At present, seasonal factors have a strong impact, the weather is gradually cold, there is just a need for replenishment demand in the downstream, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and it is expected that next week’s trend may be upward.

According to statistics, in November, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price decreased slightly. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 6800 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price of domestic PX market was 6700 yuan / ton. The price trend decreased by 1.29%, 32.88% year-on-year. The external price of PX remained low and fluctuated. The external dependence of domestic PX market was high, and the domestic price trend of low external price was slightly lower.

In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined slightly. The domestic PX operation rate is about 80%. The 600000 ton new petrochemical plant of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been put into production. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable. The first line of Fuhai Chuang plant has been started. The operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal. The operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load. Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation Petrochemical plant operation is stable, Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and domestic market price is slightly lower. Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, the external price of PX fluctuated in November. As of 28, the closing price of Asia was 773-775 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 794-796 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, several PX units in Asia are still under maintenance. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX is low Negative domestic market, domestic p-xylene market price slightly lower.

In November, the closing price of international crude oil fluctuated. As of the 28th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $58.11/barrel and Brent crude oil futures market was $63.87/barrel. The closing price of crude oil has been maintained between $55-60 / barrel. The cost support for downstream petrochemical products is limited, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is slightly lower.

In November, the price trend of the downstream PTA market declined slightly. As of the 29th, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated to be around 4700-4800 yuan. In the futures market, the main futures of PTA fell in shock, and the main futures (2001) closed at 4726 yuan / ton. After the buyback of suppliers, another 1.1 million tons of Dushan energy line was put into operation successfully, Hainan Yisheng and Yadong petrochemical plants were restarted successively, and the supply end was pressurized. At the same time, the downstream is cautious in purchasing, and there is a weakening expectation. The spot market lacks clear positive news support. The price keeps falling. In November, PTA starts at more than 90%, polyester starts at about 87%, and the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms starts at about 71%. The current terminal weaving factory has a relatively common new order, and the inventory pressure of weaving products is still there. In addition, the raw material market Limited market support, multiple negative drag, downstream and terminal factories to maintain just need to replenish, have taken negative hedging measures, PX market price trend fell slightly.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the recent crude oil price trend is volatile, and the downstream PTA Market operating rate remains at a high level of 90%, but the PTA market price is slightly lower. At present, the PTA plant is newly put into operation, and the supply will gradually accumulate, and the downstream polyester production is expected to reduce, especially from late December to January, there is a large area maintenance plan for the polyester plant, and the PX market price is expected to be later Grid may maintain low volatility.

I. price trend

In November, the market price of NBR was weak. According to the monitoring of business association, the price of NBR at the beginning of the month was 17066 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 16000 yuan / ton, down 6.25% compared with the beginning of the month.

II. Market trend analysis

Sufficient supply of NBR

According to the business association, in November, the main domestic nitrile manufacturers basically started normal operation, and the overall operation rate of domestic nitrile rubber was nearly 80%. The market supply is sufficient. Under the pressure of inventory, the prices of nitrile enterprises and traders have been reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 30, the price of domestic NBR in Shaanxi is stable. At present, the mainstream market of Lanhua NBR n41 is about 14000 yuan / ton, 3305 is about 14900 yuan / ton, 3308 is about 15600 yuan / ton, and downstream inquiry is on demand.

Raw material price shocks and consolidation weaken the support of NBR

In November, the raw material butadiene was shaken and consolidated, which weakened the support for nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in early November was 9123 yuan / ton, which fell to 8537 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and 8834 yuan / ton in the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 3.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the amplitude at the higher point was 6.42% higher than that at the lower point of the month.

It is difficult for the downstream demand to improve, which will drag down the NBR

At present, there is no significant increase in the orders of downstream terminal plants, the demand for NBR is still light, and the stock volume is not much, dragging the overall NBR market.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is low, on the other hand, the demand for NBR is insufficient, and it is expected that the price of NBR will continue to be weak in the later stage.