1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 2312.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 3025 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 30.81%, an increase of 66.51% over the same period last year. On September 28, the commodity index of light soda ash was 152.56, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, an increase of 141.58% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is strong this month. At present, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2800-3000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2850-3200 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term soda ash price is mainly high. Affected by the dual control policy, there are many manufacturers’ parking, the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery of early orders is mainly. Soda ash inventory is small, and some enterprises do not pick up goods smoothly.

Demand: the price of glass spot market is weak. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 38.75 yuan / m3, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 37.31 yuan / m3, down 3.72%. The production and sales of Shahe in North China are weak, manufacturers mainly ship at stable prices, and traders ship flexibly. The trend in East China was weak, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was obvious, and the spot price of glass fell. Glass shipments in Central China are generally, some enterprises implement preferential policies, and the price is reduced slightly. The glass shipment in South China is acceptable, the manufacturers deliver at stable prices, and the downstream just needs to purchase. Forecast: in the short term, the glass spot market will wait and see, and the price will continue to be weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there were 4 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodities falling and 0 kind of commodities falling. The main commodities rising were: light soda ash (19.47%), calcium carbide (10.94%), caustic soda (7.82%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 4.35%). The average rise and fall this week was 7.82%.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is strong, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. However, the downstream glass price is still in conflict with the high price soda ash, the glass price is weak, and the soda ash is mostly purchased on demand. There is still demand in the market as a whole, but the supply is small and the supply is difficult to find. In addition, considering the impact of policies, soda ash is still strong in the short term, mainly market operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 28, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10333 yuan / ton. Compared with September 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 15466 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 5133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 33.19%.

In the first week of September, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a slight upward trend. On the 5th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 15666 yuan / ton. Compared with the 1st, the average price rose by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.29%. Since the 6th, due to the weak demand, the quotation of n-butanol factory has continued to decline. On the 12th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to 14800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.52% compared with the beginning of the month.

In mid September, the policies of limiting production and electricity in all provinces were implemented, and the demand for n-butanol decreased significantly, and the market price fell sharply

As a major n-butanol supply and marketing Province, Shandong’s n-butanol unit basically operated normally in September and the supply in the site was normal, except for some planned shutdown and maintenance devices. However, since late September, due to power and production restrictions and other influencing factors, the demand for n-butanol in the downstream market has declined to a large extent. The operating rate of main products in the downstream of n-butanol is less than 40%, and even the operating rate of individual downstream products is less than 20%. Under the obvious reduction of demand, the market price of n-butanol began to decline sharply. As of the 25th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong has dropped to 12400 yuan / ton, Compared with the beginning of the month, the decline has reached 20%.

On the 26th, just four days before the national day, the downstream pre festival goods preparation was still average, and the sales pressure of n-butanol market was prominent. The n-butanol factory again significantly reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol by 1000-2000 yuan / ton. On the 26th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10333 yuan / ton, a single day decrease of 16.67% compared with the previous working day, Subsequently, the overall market was weak. As of September 28, compared with the beginning of the month, the decline of n-butanol in September had exceeded 33%.

In terms of index, on September 28, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 84.24, the same as yesterday, down 36.08% from the highest point of 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 181.83% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, at the end of September, the domestic propylene oxide Market in Shandong was highly stable. As of September 28, the average production price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 17333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.11% compared with September 1 (16033.33 yuan / ton). At present, the raw material propylene has decreased steadily, the cost support is general, the production restriction policy affects propylene oxide and downstream operation load, the market is relatively stable, the overall trading atmosphere is general, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is increasing.

Future analysis of n-butanol

In September, after the price of n-butanol fell sharply, the downstream profit margin was better improved, which will also give some support to the start-up of downstream units after the National Day holiday. With the increase of downstream start-up, the demand enthusiasm will also increase. Therefore, analysts of business society believe that after the National Day holiday, the overall market demand for n-butanol in Shandong will be better in October than in mid and late September, Therefore, the market price of n-butanol is expected to pick up steadily after the festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 3516 yuan / ton on September 20 and 3500 yuan / ton on September 27. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.47% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3590 yuan / ton on September 20 and 3590 yuan / ton on September 27. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate operated weakly this week, and the price fell slightly. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 56%, down from last week. At present, the market atmosphere is still weak, the prices of some enterprises are fine tuned, and the overall trend is stable. Under the influence of double control, the supply of Monoammonium decreased. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer is reduced and the purchase of raw materials is reduced. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3400-3600 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3800 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 60%, down from last week. At present, most of the diammonium enterprises still have a large amount to be issued. Most of them mainly issue early orders, and most enterprises do not offer for the time being. At present, the export demand is good, and the price of diammonium is strong. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3550-3650 yuan / ton, mainly through negotiation.

This week, the domestic market of raw phosphorus ore continued to operate at a high level and stably, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. At the beginning of the week, some mining enterprises in Guizhou had tight goods and high prices, and a small amount of spot goods were mainly orders from old customers. At present, external orders are suspended when there is no goods, mainly contract users.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of the business society believes that the current monoammonium market is weak and stable. The price of raw materials is stable, and the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase on demand. The price of monoammonium phosphate is expected to run smoothly in the short term. At present, domestic orders for diammonium are sufficient and foreign demand is good. It is expected that diammonium phosphate will continue to operate at a high level and firmly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene rose slightly this week. On September 17, the price of toluene was 5660 yuan / ton; The price on Sunday (September 26) was 5680.4 yuan / ton, up 0.36% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 64.17%.

2、 Analysis and review

The price of related aromatics fell, the fundamental support of toluene market was weak, and the weak and stable trend continued in the first half of the week. Crude oil rose continuously during the week. Supported by the raw material end, the price of toluene rose slightly, but the demand still restricted the increase.

In terms of the outer disk, the outer disk continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. As of September 24, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $801 / T, up US $12 / T or 1.52% month on month from September 17.

In terms of crude oil, U.S. crude oil inventories fell continuously, U.S. oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico recovered slowly, and the market was worried about tight crude oil supply. Crude oil rose sharply this week. On September 17, Brent rose $2.75 / barrel, or 3.65%; WTI rose $2.01/barrel, or 2.79%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fluctuated downward this week, and domestic goods executed 14100 yuan / ton, down 1.17% from last week and 20.93% from the same period last year. There is no inventory pressure due to the equipment maintenance of many TDI factories in China. Under the dual control policy of energy consumption, the downstream demand is general, the transaction downstream of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, the trading atmosphere on the site is light, and the operator’s mentality is mainly wait-and-see.

In terms of PX market, in terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, an increase of 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 24, the closing prices in Asia were USD 898-900 / T FOB Korea and USD 916-918 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the demand for fuel oil is promising, the market expects tight crude oil supply, and the oil price has the power to act. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

The demand side is the main factor affecting the trend of toluene at present. Although the trend of crude oil is good in the near future, the demand continues to be weak and toluene lacks upward momentum. Overall, toluene continued its weak and stable trend in the short term. Pay attention to the downstream goods preparation intention before the national day, the dynamics and demand of downstream units, and the impact of crude oil and external market trend on the price of toluene.

The price of ethylene oxide in various regions increased by 200 yuan / ton before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. After adjustment, the ex factory price of mainstream East China was 7900 yuan / ton.

Upstream, with the U.S. crude oil inventory falling to the lowest in nearly three years and Brent oil price reaching a three-year high, the coal market continues to run strong, the domestic spot supply of ethylene is in short supply, and the price is adjusted at a high level. Ethylene oxide has strong cost support.

Polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer has also swept away the decline recently, and the price has risen steadily. Today, the quotation of Hubei Lingan is increased by 100 yuan / ton. Although the quotation of Shanghai Dongda is stable, the goods have been limited due to the shortage of raw materials. Sanjiang AEO-9 was also affected by the sharp rise of fatty alcohol, which was successively increased to 12000 yuan / ton. However, from the perspective of the downstream industry as a whole, at present, manufacturers have strong resistance to high priced raw materials and complain one after another. Affected by the high price of ethylene oxide, shortage of supply and dual control of energy consumption in some areas, downstream enterprises have to stop production or reduce their burden.

In terms of ethylene oxide, both the supplier and the demander have been impacted to varying degrees under the influence of the policy, but the shortage of ethylene oxide supply is more serious. The situation of purchasing at higher prices in the downstream is common. The load of Lianhong is reduced to 60%, mainly about the length of the guarantee. At present, there is no goods available for zero orders, Previously, it has been reported that Jinyan satellite and other devices that have caused fluctuations in the mentality of people in the industry need to stop. At present, the news has not been implemented. In addition, the National Day holiday is imminent, market people mostly wait and see and wait for policy guidance after the festival.

Temporarily stable.

Today, the production price of styrene in Shandong was 9240.00 yuan / ton, stable.

Today, the Styrene Market in Shandong maintained a stable operation, crude oil rebounded and prices rose, the high level of pure benzene continued to fall, styrene cost support weakened, futures opened at a low price, inventories in the East China reservoir area increased slightly, domestic mainstream production enterprises are expected to make up falls and promote sales one after another, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream demand is weak. Although there are expectations for delivery at the end of the month and goods preparation on the national day, the performance within the day is insufficient. The market does not buy or fall, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is heavy. Today, the price of styrene in East China is around 9250-9300 yuan / ton. The price in Northeast China is about 9150 yuan / ton, and the price in South China is reduced to about 9000-9050 yuan / ton.

In the short term, styrene is still expected to rebound after falling continuously.

On September 22, the market of potassium nitrate was stable. According to the statistics of business agency, the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers was 5300-5600 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions. The supply of potash fertilizer in China increased slightly, and the port was supplemented by a small amount of new sources. The market turnover is general and the market fluctuation is not large.

In the near future, the supply of potash fertilizer market is relatively stable, the procurement of downstream factories is not active, the demand is poor, and the market transaction is slow. It is expected that the market price of potassium nitrate may decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline continued its decline at the beginning of the week, rose continuously after an unexpected rebound on Tuesday, and prices rose broadly during the week. On September 10, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 10400-10600 yuan / ton; On September 17, the price in Shandong was 11200-11420 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11500 yuan / ton. The price increased by 10.06% over last week, 3.99% over the beginning of the month, 43.04% over the beginning of the year and 137.06% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, affected by the epidemic and typhoon, the arrival of cargo was delayed, the port inventory decreased significantly, the spot supply in East China was tight, which stimulated the active purchase in the downstream, and the market speculation was strong. In the second half of the week, affected by the “double control” policy, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly; In addition, the reserve of pure benzene in the downstream is relatively sufficient due to short supply in the early stage, and the resistance to high priced pure benzene in the downstream is strengthened and the follow-up is weakened. Market buying enthusiasm fell, pure benzene market fell, traders took profits and prices fell. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was raised three times and lowered once, and the adjusted price was 8300-8450 yuan / ton.

The price of nitric acid rose significantly this week. On Friday (September 17), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3090 yuan / ton, an increase of 3% over last week and 103.74% over the same period last year.

Affected by environmental protection policies, the operating rate in the lower reaches of the North decreased last week and the demand for aniline decreased. In order to promote shipment, the price of aniline decreased continuously. On Monday, aniline continued its decline last week, and the price continued to decline. After an unexpected rebound on Tuesday, it rose continuously and the overall price rose broadly. Under the “double control” policy, Jiangsu Yangnong and Jiangsu Fuqiang have unplanned parking; A 100000 t / a unit of Nanhua was shut down to replace the catalyst. At present, aniline in Jiangsu has lost 130000 T / a production capacity. The spot supply in East China was tight, and the inventory of aniline enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi decreased rapidly, driving the overall supply in the field to be tight.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, crude oil deposit may fall; Affected by the “double control” policy in the downstream, the downstream operating rate in East China decreased significantly, and the subsequent demand for pure benzene was weak. At the end of this month, Dalian Fujia and Dalian Hengli planned maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease, or offset the bad brought by the decline in demand. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will be consolidated at a high level after a slight decline.

In the short term, with the support of cost and the restriction of “dual control” on market supply, aniline is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the price is expected to return to a high level within the year. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

Since September, liquid ammonia has reversed the diving market of last month and continued to rebound rapidly. According to the monitoring of business society, liquid ammonia rose by 13.41% this week. As of Friday, liquid ammonia rose by 20.78% since September. At present, the market has recovered most of the land lost in August, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has reached the range of 4400-4600 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, urea plants in major production areas such as northwest and Shanxi are facing centralized maintenance. The domestic urea output has decreased significantly and the price has begun to rise. Some ammonia enterprises have switched to urea, which has exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia is rising.

On the cost side, the coal price continued to rise, and the cost prompted the market price of liquid ammonia to rise. According to the monitoring of the business society, the power coal rose in late August after a short correction in mid and early August, and continued until early September. According to the monitoring of the business society, the power coal rose by more than 15% from August 23 to September 10. (see figure above)

On the demand side, under the background of more troubleshooting enterprises and a significant decline in the average daily output of urea, although the downstream demand has not been fundamentally improved, the terminal procurement is still tight. A small amount of local reserves for domestic agricultural demand to ensure stable rigid demand; The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and the downstream load production was reduced due to the influence of environmental protection inspectors in Lianghu area. However, the operating rate of the rubber plate factory is acceptable, and the procurement volume increases slightly.

In terms of export, there are still intermittent export orders when Indian bidding is pending. The overall external demand remained stable.

Future forecast: the business agency believes that the recent rising momentum of the coal market remains unchanged, the urea market turns better, and the urea printing standard is approaching, and the maintenance period of the stacking device will continue for some time. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will remain strong in the near future, which does not rule out the possibility of continued upward price.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of September 15, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8300 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 10 (the average price was reduced by 8350 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.6%, and compared with the price on September 1 (the average price was reduced by 8533 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 233 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.73%.

Last week, individual butanone spot traders in Shandong raised the ex factory price of butanone slightly, but did not drive a wide-ranging rise in the market. Entering this week, the butanone market as a whole is in a weak position, and the double festival is approaching. At present, the downstream has not shown a significant hoarding of goods. The overall transaction in the butanone market is general. In the face of the current tepid trading atmosphere, the driving force for the rise of butanone prices is insufficient, and the operators’ quotation remains at the pre-term level. On the 15th, individual butanone holders in Shandong narrowly reduced the ex factory price of butanone, The reduction range is 50 yuan / ton. At present, the high market of C4 after raw ether still gives butanone some cost support, but the overall trend of butanone is still tired when the demand boost is not obvious. At present, as of September 15, the market price of butanone in East China is around 8400-8500 yuan / ton, the market price of butanone in Shandong is 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the average price of butanone in China is 8300 yuan / ton, which is nearly 13% lower than the market high of 9533 yuan / ton a month ago.

Upstream, with the arrival of the traditional sales peak season “golden nine”, the liquefied gas market has lived up to expectations and ushered in a sharp rise. At present, the ex factory quotation of civil gas in Shandong has risen to more than 5000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4743.33 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5060.00 yuan / ton on September 13. The increase rate in one week was 6.68%, an increase of 66.27% compared with the same period last year.

Internationally, on September 14, the international oil price was basically flat. On the last trading day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.46/barrel, up US $0.01, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.60/barrel, up US $0.09.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, on the one hand, the recent market of C4 after upstream ether is high, and the profit is reduced under the increase of butanone cost pressure. Therefore, the industry has limited acceptance of continuing to adjust butanone price downward. On the other hand, if the downstream demand continues to be weak and the improvement is not obvious, the possibility of butanone price rising sharply is also low. Therefore, butanone analysts of business society believe that in the short term, The domestic butanone market will be adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the actual order transaction and demand follow-up.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong continued to rise slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2493.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2500.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.27%, an increase of 47.93% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 116.28 on September 10.

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand was enhanced, and urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2470 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea will not be quoted this week, but it is actually discussed, and the overall rise; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5790.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.31%, a year-on-year increase of 145.69% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal increased, and the quotation increased from 1175.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1205.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.55%, a year-on-year increase of 112.24% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 4200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4650.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 10.71%, a year-on-year increase of 48.40% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose this week, from 15500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 16700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 7.74%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period. There are maintenance plans in Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and the daily output of urea has declined. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In the middle of September, the urea market in Shandong Province mainly rose slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.

The spot tin market price (9.3-9.10) this week was mainly upward. The average price in the domestic market was 249350 yuan / ton last weekend and 257933 yuan / ton this weekend, up 3.44% this week.

On September 11, the tin commodity index was 131.39, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 206.56% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of futures market was strong this week, with Shanghai tin rising by 4.19% this week. In the spot market, the overall supply of domestic spot tin inventory was still tight, the inventory decreased slightly compared with last week, and the tin price reached a new high of 253520 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand is stable, and the demand of the electronic industry is expected to improve in the future. However, the downstream is afraid of heights, and it is basically based on on-demand procurement. Domestic mine end supply is still tight as a whole.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 36th week of 2021 (9.6-9.10), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were metal silicon (7.94%), nickel (4.93%) and aluminum (4.64%). There were three commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products were gold (- 1.53%), silver (- 0.55%) and cobalt (- 0.35%). Both rose or fell by 1.4% this week.

In the future, the business society believes that under the current tight supply, the future tin price will remain high and oscillate, and there is still the possibility of reaching a new high.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of September 10, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 5100.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black operated smoothly and maintained the early trend. The price fluctuation was not obvious, the supply and demand were balanced, and the room for rise was limited.

This week, the silica market mainly operated stably, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, the downstream just needed to prepare goods, the procurement atmosphere was general, the contract customers were the main, the number of new orders was limited, the current inventory was normal, the manufacturers shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, and the operating rate was normal.

The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid is temporarily stable and the cost support is general. Dezhou Maihua is 150 yuan / ton, Shanxi Wenshui is 230 yuan / ton and Dezhou Shihua is 450 yuan / ton. The price has no obvious change. It is mainly stable and mainly supplied to contract customers.

Chemical commodity index: on September 9, the chemical index was 1146 points, an increase of 2 points over yesterday, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 91.64% over the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

On September 10, the commodity price index of hydrochloric acid and silica was 88.85, the same as yesterday, down 31.22% from the highest point of 129.18 in the cycle (2020-07-14), and up 228.47% from the lowest point of 27.05 on September 3, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from January 1, 2012 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: it is expected that white carbon black will mainly operate stably next week to maintain a stable trend in the early stage. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 5, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 17033 yuan / ton. Compared with August 30 (propylene glycol reference price of 17288 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 255 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.45% within the week, and 33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.20% within 30 days, compared with August 5 (propylene glycol reference price of 17066 yuan / ton).

Near the end of August, supported by the failure shutdown of propylene glycol units in Shaanxi and the reduction of propylene glycol supply in the yard, the domestic propylene glycol market corrected at the end of August.

In the first week of September, the domestic propylene glycol market fell as a whole. At the beginning of the week, the domestic propylene glycol on-site supply did not change much, and the factory operation did not change much. The downstream can continue the just needed procurement. The ex factory quotation of propylene glycol in Shandong is around 17300-17500 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, some factories shipped slowly and gradually accumulated inventory. On the 1st, the ex factory price of propylene glycol decreased by 200-400 yuan / ton. After the price decreased, The downstream demand boost was not obvious, and the performance was still relatively cold. On the 2nd, the propylene glycol market fell slightly again. Until the weekend, the propylene glycol market was dominated by weak operation. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong was around 16800-17200 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the week, the price was reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton, and the domestic average price was 17033 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the week, the average price was reduced by 255 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.45% within the week.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the propylene oxide market first stabilized and then rose in the first week of September. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 15600-15700 yuan / ton, the factory inventory pressure was not large, the follow-up of new orders in the downstream was general, the market was flat, and it was temporarily stable. With the release of downstream demand, the factory inventory fell to a low level, the market rose, and the price rose slightly. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 15700-15800 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, after the propylene glycol market fell within the week, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is still cautious, the transaction orders are general, and the supply side has not yet made significant performance in propylene glycol support. Therefore, the propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the domestic propylene glycol market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term and adjust the operators.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 3566 yuan / ton on August 30 and 3516 yuan / ton on September 5. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 1.40% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3605 yuan / ton on August 30 and 3605 yuan / ton on September 5. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate continued its weak trend this week, and the price continued to fall. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 64%, down from last week. At present, the market center of gravity has declined significantly, and most enterprises offer uncertain prices, which are discussed on a single basis. The current market of downstream compound fertilizer is poor, and the purchase of raw materials is reduced. Although the raw phosphorus ore and sulfur increased significantly, the price of Monoammonium decreased significantly due to the weakening of domestic demand and the increase of inventory. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3400-3550 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3800 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 62%, up from last week. At present, most diammonium enterprises mainly issue early orders and do not receive payment temporarily. Due to the small supply of goods, the enterprise will not quote for the time being, and the market is generally stable. Due to the strong demand at home and abroad, the market of diammonium phosphate continued to improve. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3550-3650 yuan / ton, and that of 64% mainstream diammonium in North China is 3400-3500 yuan / ton.

As for raw phosphorus ore, the market price of phosphorus ore in many regions in China rose sharply again this week. The main reason for the rise is that there is a shortage of phosphorus ore in stock in mines. Medium and high-grade phosphorus ore in some mines in Guizhou is out of stock, which is only supplied to contract users and no new orders are received. The prices of other tight mines also began to rise at the beginning of the week, which is a large increase.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of business society believe that the current market situation of Monoammonium is weak and the downstream procurement is poor. The price of raw materials is rising, and enterprises are under great pressure. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate may continue to decline in the short term. At present, the demand for diammonium is good, and the industry is mostly optimistic. The rise of raw materials is favorable support, with a large number of pending orders and a small supply of goods. It is expected that diammonium phosphate will operate stably and firmly in the short term.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (September 6): 795.00 yuan / ton

On September 6, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.27%, compared with the quotation on September 3, and 103.85% compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. The downstream bromine market began to stop falling and rise, and the downstream formic acid market was also rising sharply. The downstream demand was strong, which had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average quotation price is about 800 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the overall PP market was stable and small in early September, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted in a narrow range. As of September 3, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8366.67 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.20% compared with last Friday and a year-on-year increase of 1.41%.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream propylene. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of September 3, the reference price of propylene was 7617.57, down 1.94% compared with Monday’s price. The shipment of production enterprises has improved, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

The price of direct raw material propylene fell, and the cost side support of PP was weakened this week. In terms of operating rate, the overall load of the industry was about 80-90% at the end of August. At present, domestic polypropylene units are slightly lower than before, but the reopening of some units is approaching, and the operating rate is expected to rise. The supply side also operates smoothly and the supply pressure is general. The demand for PP wire drawing materials continued to follow up smoothly, the actual purchase operation was biased towards just need to maintain production, and the high price supply was generally resisted by buyers. The shipment fluency of merchants decreased, and there was great resistance to the increase of offer. Generally, they shipped at a high price, and it was heard that the price of real orders decreased.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of September 3, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was adjusted in a narrow range in early September. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8433.33 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.20% over last week and 1.61% over the same period last year. This week, the demand for PP fiber materials generally stabilized. Although the current national fiber material operating rate is below 60%, the capacity mismatch to a certain extent has intensified the industry competition. At a time when the demand for end consumer goods of main downstream non-woven fabrics is difficult to increase, the market pattern may be weak. At the same time, the demand for epidemic prevention products has also decreased steadily, which may reduce the positive impact of traditional peak season on fiber PP.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market operated weakly and stably this week, and the spot price decreased by a narrow margin. As of September 3, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.36% compared with last week. At present, the impact of international health events is still profound, and there is a certain epidemic prevention demand overseas, but the increment of melt blown cloth orders is not obvious. Melt blown PP has great resistance to rise in the domestic market, and the recent weak market has dropped due to the end of the stock tide in some medium and high-risk areas. At present, due to the high market saturation of melt blown materials and cloth in the early stage, there are few devices still in production in China. It is expected that the price market of melt blown PP may continue to operate smoothly.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market was stable and weak in early September. On the whole, the spot price decreased in a narrow range. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises continued to be deadlocked, and the supply was stable. The upstream propylene market fell weakly and the direct raw material support weakened. The peak season hoarding operation is about to begin, but there is resistance to the high report of merchants. It is expected that the spot price of PP may rise in the peak season.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash was strong in August. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 2137.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 2312.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 8.19%, an increase of 41.58% over the same period last year. On August 31, the commodity index of light soda ash was 118.59, the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, an increase of 87.79% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2200-2350 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2200-2400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated.

Demand: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of glass in the spot market is basically stable. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month is 38.5 yuan / m2, and the average price at the end of the month is 38.62 yuan / m2. The price rises within the week, with a range of 0.31%. The glass spot market price is basically stable this month. In terms of regions, in Shahe, North China, the overall outbound situation is general, the production and sales have improved at the end of the month, the downstream just needs replenishment, mainly multi stable price shipments, and the prices of some manufacturers have increased. Traders’ market prices are more flexible. The overall inventory is temporarily low and the market confidence is good. The transaction atmosphere in East China’s glass spot market is weak, the delivery speed slows down, and the quotation is mainly stable. Glass shipments in Central China slowed down, downstream processing plants purchased cautiously, inventories increased, and production and sales improved at the end of the month. Glass shipments in South China were good, glass prices of some enterprises increased, mainly in the downstream, and the quotation showed an upward trend in the later stage. Glass production in Northeast China operates steadily, mainly in the downstream. The glass market trend in Southwest China is slightly upward, and the market price in Yunnan and Guizhou is rising. The glass market trend in Northwest China is general, and the market changes little. Generally speaking, the manufacturers mainly focus on price stability, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the traders’ transactions are more flexible.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 34th week of 2021 (8.23-8.27), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: light soda ash (2.21%), calcium carbide (0.92%), PVC (0.67%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.76%.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is light, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. This month, due to the impact of epidemic situation and maintenance, the output of soda ash decreased. However, end users mostly insist on purchasing on demand, which is inconsistent with high priced soda ash. On the whole, soda ash tends to be strong in the later stage, focusing on the consolidation and operation of the market, depending on the downstream market demand.

In August, the dichloromethane market continued to rise slightly. According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price of dichloromethane was 3926 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4192 yuan / ton at the end of the month. As a whole, the end of the month increased by 6.23% compared with the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, there is no pressure on the domestic dichloromethane supply side. The start-up of domestic methane chloride units changed in August. On the whole, the start-up of methane chloride units was relatively high in early August, and the unit load decreased in the second half of August.

On the other hand, the overall demand for dichloromethane is stable. In August, the film, medicine and other industries in the downstream of dichloromethane started normally, just needed support for the formation of dichloromethane, and the downstream of cleaning agents and diluents were also purchased on demand.

The cost side is slightly weak. The price of raw liquid chlorine is low and the cost side is empty. The price of methanol increased slightly, and the intensity of trichloromethane was not large. According to the business agency, as of the end of August, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong was around 800 yuan / ton; Methanol price decreased from 2585 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2615 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 1.16%.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that, on the one hand, the load of domestic methane chloride units has decreased, the enterprise inventory is small, and the downstream just need support is relatively stable. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will continue to be strong in the later stage.