According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic market price of Ammonium nitrate rose slightly in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of Ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, 0.74% higher than the beginning price of 4030 yuan/ton, and 12.69% lower than the same period last year.

In June, the domestic Ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was normal, the terminal upstream coal price rose, the price of nitric acid fell slightly, the price of liquid ammonia declined, the downstream demand was normal, and the price trend of Ammonium nitrate market rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of Ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the downstream nitro compound fertilizer purchase is general, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry purchase remains low. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of Ammonium nitrate is mainly volatile. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5000 and 5100 yuan/ton, in Shandong region, between 4000 and 4100 yuan/ton, and in Hebei region, between 4000 and 4100 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China decreased in June, with an average price of 1966.67 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 3.28% compared to the price of 2033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer prices ranging from 1800 to 2000 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient supply of goods, high price trading is under pressure, high-end prices are mostly sold at reduced prices, while the downstream demand is relatively reduced, the deal on the market is light, and the price of raw nitric acid declines, which has a negative impact on the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase of Ammonium nitrate market is limited.

In June, the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market significantly decreased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 2700 yuan/ton, a 10% decrease from the initial price of 3000 yuan/ton. As agricultural and industrial demand weakened, the ammonia market continued to hit new lows. The supply in Shandong region has significantly increased. Due to the upward trend in liquid ammonia prices in the early stage, ammonia companies have generally switched from urea to liquid ammonia, resulting in inventory backlog and pressure on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Liquid ammonia manufacturers have generally lowered prices. On the demand side, the current agricultural demand is affected by the off-season, downstream procurement is slowing down, and the double pressure of supply and demand has led to a sharp decline in the price of liquid ammonia. The decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price of Ammonium nitrate has little change.

In the near future, the downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, and the demand is not improving. In addition, the market price of raw liquid ammonia continues to decline, and the price trend of nitric acid declines. The negative factors are superimposed. The Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of Ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the later period.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fell in June: urea prices dropped from 2402.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2257.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.04%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 27.25% year-on-year.

On June 27th, the urea commodity index was 104.16, an increase of 0.12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 31.62% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 87.34% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated in June.

Cost side: Upstream market prices fluctuate with each other

In June, the price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated and increased, rising from 3750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3974.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.97%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 32.21% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan Anthracite (washing in quick) fell slightly, from 1160 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 920 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 240 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2683.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.56%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 43.78% year-on-year. Overall, there has been a significant decline in upstream urea products and insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine has slightly decreased

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, compound fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and small orders are mainly needed for procurement. The price of melamine decreased slightly in June, from 7125.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.37%.

Looking at the future market, the urea market may experience slight fluctuations and gains in mid to early July. The price of upstream LNG has a downward trend, the price of Anthracite has consolidated at a low level, and the cost support is general. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is normal. Corn in the north and rice in the south have good fertilizer use, with increasing agricultural demand and industrial demand being the main demand. Urea may fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of June 27th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On June 26, the rubber and plastic index was 643 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.34% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 21.78% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 26, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 5133 yuan/ton, which was 567 yuan/ton higher than that of June 1, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4566 yuan/ton), an increase of 12.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since June (6.1-6.26), the overall market situation of Dimethyl carbonate in China has been rising continuously. In the first ten days of June, some devices in the Dimethyl carbonate plant were shut down for maintenance, and the supply in the plant was tight. The supply side supported the steady rise of the market. As of June 15, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate was around 4800-5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.30% in the first ten days.

In late June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate was boosted, the stock was well prepared before the festival, the spot supply of Dimethyl carbonate was tight, the supply and demand transmission was smooth, and the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to move towards the high-end. As of June 26, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate was around 5000-5300 yuan/ton, with an increase of more than 12% in the month.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand for Dimethyl carbonate decreased, and the inquiry heat decreased. In addition, after the Dimethyl carbonate market rose to a high level, the wait-and-see mood in the market became stronger, and the new orders were also closed cautiously. The Dimethyl carbonate mathematician of the business agency believed that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fallen this week. As of June 25th, the spot nickel quotation was 174250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 7.71%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 7 and fallen by 5 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, the US suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled in June, and although hawkish signals were released that there may still be two more rate hikes, the market seems not very satisfied with this. The probability of next month’s rate hike is not yet firmly predicted, and domestic economic stabilization policies have also arrived as expected, providing protection for the recovery. Overall, macro sentiment has rebounded.

In terms of supply: In June, domestic nickel electrowinning continued to increase in volume, with new pure nickel production lines being put into operation as scheduled and refined nickel production increasing slightly. Indonesian nickel production capacity continued to surge, and nickel iron reflux continued to increase, impacting the domestic market. Adequate supply still brought pressure on nickel prices, while Russian nickel supply increased and premiums continued to decrease.

In terms of demand: The overall demand for pure nickel is stable, with differentiated performance in the terminal field. The production of stainless steel reached a new high in May, and the production schedule remained basically unchanged in June; The order of ternary precursor recovered, and the price of Nickel(II) sulfate stabilized and rose; Alloy and electroplating companies maintain an attitude of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices.

In summary, the macro economy has rebounded, supply continues to increase, demand is average, and overall nickel inventory is at a low level. There has been a slight rebound in the near future, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China increased from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.58%. Weekend prices fell by 24.68% year-on-year. On June 18th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly fluctuated and increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1050 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5524.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5554.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.54%. Weekend prices fell by 33.76% year-on-year. The PVC market price has fluctuated slightly, leading to an increase in downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In late June, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and gains. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. In late June, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from June 9 to June 16, 2023 was slightly reduced, from 5728.75 yuan/ton last weekend to 5416.25 yuan/ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 5.45%.

In terms of crude oil: During this cycle, crude oil fell first and then rose. Overall, on June 12th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.12/barrel, a decrease of $3.05 or 4.3%, reaching a low point in nearly three months. On June 15th, the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures main contract was $70.62 per barrel, an increase of $2.35 or 3.4%. The overall trend of crude oil during the week was volatile.

On June 15th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 70.62 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.35 US dollars or 3.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $75.67 per barrel, an increase of $2.47 or 3.4%. Unexpected retail growth in the United States in May, supported by positive employment data. The significant increase in processing capacity of Chinese refineries has led to a rebound in the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton on June 13, 2023, and is currently at 6200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6400 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6133 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On June 12th, the price of pure benzene was 6442 yuan/ton, and on Friday (June 16th), the price of pure benzene was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.68% from last week and 37.37% from the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has been declining for eight consecutive weeks, with both positive and negative trends in recent times.

In terms of industrial chain: the domestic pure benzene market continued to decline in this cycle, crude oil fell deeply at the beginning of the week, and the Asian pure benzene market declined. The domestic pure benzene inventory was high, and the pure benzene market was mixed with bad news. Near the weekend, the market news was that the domestic new devices would be put into production in the later stage, and the market expected loose supply, dragging down the pure benzene market mentality. The price of pure benzene in the week fell to 6100-6170 yuan/ton in East China, 6050-6100 yuan/ton in Shandong. The overall trend of the industrial chain is weak, driving a broad downward adjustment of related commodities this week.

This week, most crude benzene auctions went down, with Shanxi executing 5280-5350 yuan/ton and a decrease of 260-350 yuan/ton. The Shandong region implemented 5460 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 320 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises has limited changes this week, while the supply of crude benzene has not changed much. In terms of demand, hydrogenated benzene has continued to decline, causing losses for enterprises. The operating rate has decreased due to increased equipment maintenance. This week, the mainstream factory price of hydrogenated benzene was between 6150 and 6200 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 300 yuan/ton. After the overall performance of the industrial chain was weak and the downstream market continued to weaken, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene decreased, the demand for crude benzene weakened, and the downstream price pressure mentality was strong. This week, most crude benzene auctions went down. Overall, the industrial chain is weakening, and the supply of crude benzene is tight, which has some resilience. However, there is a lack of downstream demand support, and there may be some room for decline. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the crude benzene market will operate weakly in the near future, with a focus on the trend of crude oil and the impact of downstream demand for pure benzene on the market.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have stabilized at a low level this week, with sulfuric acid prices at 182.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 83.09% year-on-year. On June 11th, the sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 28.33, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 84.94% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 820.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 840.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.44%. Over the weekend, prices fell 78.86% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9657.14 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 17.18% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 16133.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 21.75% year-on-year. The downstream market has stabilized at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late June, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the atmosphere of the domestic BDO market has rebounded. From June 5th to 9th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11078 yuan/ton to 11028 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.45%, a month on month decrease of 12.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.94%.

Some BDO devices have undergone maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply. Suppliers mainly supply contract orders, while spot controlled supply is strong in the market. Downstream small households have a strong demand to replenish their positions, coupled with online auction transaction prices continuing to rise, causing overall market volatility to rise. Some production enterprises have been slow to follow up on prices, and market prices have rebounded towards the weekend.

Supply side,. Short term BDO supply is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be weak. On June 9th, the benchmark price for calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 3000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.76% compared to the beginning of this month (3150.00 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, supply is still abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market is operating in a weak trend. On June 9th, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2085.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.43% compared to the beginning of this month (2160.00 yuan/ton). Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the situation in the spandex industry is weak and declining. The Cathay Pacific Xinhua PTMEG device was shut down for maintenance on June 5th, and the Chongqing Jianfeng device was repaired from June 9th to 15th, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion. The PBT industry has a load of nearly 60%, increasing the digestion of raw materials and following up on orders in demand; The operating load of PU slurry and TPU industry in the polyurethane field is 40-50%, and follow-up is required. The demand for short-term BDO is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the supply volume is still decreasing, and the supplier has a strong mentality of controlling quantity and being reluctant to sell. However, the overall opening of the downstream industry has slightly declined, with a reduction in raw material consumption and a focus on maintaining contract follow-up. BDO analysts from the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, under the influence of comprehensive factors such as the acquisition trend of Spring Cocoon, the continuation of terminal recovery, and the digestion of negative factors affecting the early stage, domestic raw silk prices have continued to rise this week (5.27-6.2). As of June 2nd, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 430550 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to last week and a year-on-year increase of 10.96%; The average market price of dried cocoons remained stable at 139700 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.46%;

This week, the spot market of raw silk continued to maintain a pattern of just in demand pickup, and prices have remained relatively stable in recent times. The transaction of high-quality raw silk is average, and the transaction price has not changed much. Some units have almost fully invested in the acquisition of cocoons.

At a time when the national trend of spring cocoon harvest and drying is clear, the purchase and sales of spring cocoons are also shifting from active intentions to actual implementation. In Guangxi region, due to the high temperatures and other weather conditions this week, although the purchase price of dried cocoons has decreased compared to the previous period, the overall cocoon quality indicates that the cost of receiving and drying cocoons for this batch of cocoons may remain unchanged or slightly higher compared to the previous period. From the perspective of some regions such as Sichuan, the direct acquisition of cocoon capital by leading enterprises, coupled with costs such as investment in the base, still results in a relatively high comprehensive conversion price. Cocoon purchases in some major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangsu began this week and are expected to form a comprehensive acquisition situation in the near future. The price of dry cocoons this week has slightly increased compared to last week.

There has been no significant change in the prices of silk and satin for domestic and foreign sales this week, and the difference in prices compared to last week is very small. In the current climate of sluggish terminal consumption, it is difficult to sustain a recovery in actual transactions. Most buyers purchase on demand, and there are few behaviors of hoarding large amounts of inventory. If market demand can gradually start, favorable demand will support prices, and market trading activity will increase. We look forward to ushering in a new market trend.

Analysts from Business Society believe that currently, the spot market prices are relatively strong in consolidation, with insufficient downstream buying gas and overall flat production and sales data. Upstream raw material prices are steadily high, and for a certain period of time, costs can still form support. It is expected that raw silk will continue to be at a high level in the near future, with a strong consolidation path.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of June 2, 2023, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 716.67 yuan/ton, or 10.70%, compared to the price on May 26, 2023 (reference price of 6700 yuan/ton for diethylene glycol).

From the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.27-6.2), the diethylene glycol market experienced a broad decline. This week, international oil prices first fell and then rose, showing fluctuations, and the impact of cost on the diethylene glycol market is limited. The total number of arrivals to the port during the week is relatively large, and the downstream construction level is relatively low. The initial follow-up efforts are average, and the demand cannot be consumed during the cycle. The inventory increase in the main port is significant, and the mentality of the operators is weakening. The focus of negotiations has decreased significantly. The addition of 1 million tons/year EO/EG devices in Sanjiang has recently produced qualified products, increasing market supply pressure and weak market adjustment, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. As of this weekend (June 2), the domestic diethylene glycol market price is around 5800-6000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the short term, due to the pressure from the economic downturn, crude oil will still not reduce, and there may be insufficient support for diethylene glycol due to the temporary inability to form a clear operating trend; Although some ships arrive at the port for centralized replenishment, the subsequent arrival volume is limited, and the port inventory fluctuates at a low level. The tight supply situation will continue, and the supply side support will still exist; Terminal demand is weak, and the downstream unsaturated resin market continues to weaken. Currently, the overall capacity utilization rate is 29%, a decrease of 1% compared to the previous cycle. Diethylene glycol analysts from the business community believe that the short-term diethylene glycol market may maintain a weak pattern, specifically focusing on downstream follow-up and the impact of changes in market sentiment.

The price of ethylene glycol in May showed a weak inverted “V” shape

According to data from Business News Agency, as of May 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4103.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 3900-4310 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4000 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On May 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 478 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 483 US dollars per ton.

In May, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, with a trend of “V” in price, and the price continued to move downward at the end of the month.

Ethylene glycol prices may continue to be weak in June

The price of ethylene glycol in June may continue to be weak, for the following reasons:

1. Ethylene glycol port inventory

At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 29th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 933100 tons. After late April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port began to be depleted, and it has been operating in the range of less than 1 million tons since May. The maintenance of overseas devices in June is relatively low, and the import volume may rebound, which may hinder the process of port inventory destocking.

2. Downstream demand has not changed much

Downstream, the polyester production rate has recently improved, with a polyester production capacity utilization rate of 88.25%, an increase of 2.41% month on month, and a production of 1.2524 million tons, an increase of 2.41% month on month. Next week’s weekly production is expected to be above 1.26 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 89%. The space for further increasing demand will be narrowed in the future.

3. Low spot supply of ethylene glycol rebounds

In the early stage, the coal production plants were restarted one after another due to short shutdowns, and new plants were put into operation. The low supply level slightly rebounded, and the speed of ethylene glycol storage slowed down. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the cash flow of domestic coal production processes has been restored. In June, the coal production plant is expected to restart, and the operating rate of coal production may show a rebound trend. Therefore, the supply of coal to ethylene glycol may increase. However, there is still a high demand for short-term maintenance of oil production equipment, and the supply side increment is expected to be limited. The 1 million ton EG+EO device of Sanjiang Chemical has been successfully started up within a week, and the load is gradually increasing; The 260000 ton plant of Inner Mongolia Jianyuan was shut down in early May and is expected to restart in early June.

4. Weak cost support for ethylene glycol

In the macro environment, the prices of terminal raw materials such as coal and crude oil are in a downward or fluctuating trend, making it difficult to focus and amplify the cost impact factors of ethylene glycol in the short term.

Future market forecast

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within the historical relatively low range, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains in the short term.

Ethylene glycol has been at a negative profit level for a long time, and is currently mainly supported by the weakening of supply caused by mid to long-term production changes and the expected improvement in downstream demand; We still need to wait and see the specific expected landing performance.

At present, oil prices remain volatile, but coal prices continue to operate in a weak manner, and the cost support for ethylene glycol has weakened. It is expected that in the short term, ethylene glycol will weaken in the future market and the probability of fluctuations will increase. The average price range for June is around 3900-4150 yuan/ton.