According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has risen significantly in recent days (9.18-9.28). As of September 28th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17063 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.09% from 16237 yuan/ton on September 18th. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials have significantly increased during the cycle; On the other hand, domestic Tianjian inventory continues to decline; In addition, downstream tire manufacturers have provided support for pre holiday stocking of natural rubber, which has led to a significant increase in the price of natural rubber due to cost and supply and demand support.

Recently, the poor weather in the production areas of Thailand and Vietnam has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials; On the one hand, domestic processing plants replenish their inventory before the holiday, and on the other hand, there is a lot of rainfall at the beginning of the week in Hainan, which hinders rubber cutting; The price of natural rubber raw materials has significantly increased. As of September 28th, the price of Thai glue is 76.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 72.50 baht/kg on September 18th; As of September 29th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 18600 yuan/ton, significantly higher than the price of 16800 yuan/ton on September 18th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 22, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 422500 tons, a decrease of 1.77% compared to the previous period.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has experienced stable but slight fluctuations in production, and downstream stocking demand before the holiday is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to experience strong fluctuations after the holiday.

Aluminum prices fell first and then rose in September

Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in September, showing strong performance recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 27, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20326.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.48% from the market average price of 19643.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

Aluminum prices are expected in October

Aluminum prices in October may continue their upward trend from September. The reasons are as follows.

1. Domestic macro positive news is released, and policies are boosting the non-ferrous sector. The central bank has proposed further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity, while also creating a shift towards refinancing to guide listed companies to repurchase and increase their holdings of stocks. At the real estate level, it is proposed to lower the interest rates of existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. The positive expectations brought by domestic policies, coupled with the positive expectations of terminal demand, have driven aluminum prices to remain firm and improve emotionally. Under the guidance of policy direction, market confidence has returned and sentiment is unlikely to subside in the short term. It is expected that the policy will continue to boost positive sentiment in October.

2. Inventory is in a continuous state of destocking, and Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the supply side are nearing the end of resuming production, with high daily output and narrowing upward space; Multiple downstream sectors on the demand side have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories in a state of slight destocking. The expectations for the Golden September and Silver October are good.

Risk point: Import and export may be affected by foreign policy factors, and some of the US 301 tariff policies will take effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

This week (September 16-20), the cost side support was weak, the demand side, and the traditional textile peak season in September did not meet expectations, resulting in a weak decline in the nylon market. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has been lowered, and the market trend of nylon PA6 chips is weak, with weak cost support. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, resulting in poor trading activity within the market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not high. There is a lack of positive news to boost the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among industry players.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly this week (September 16-20). As of September 20, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 18360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.76%. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 15875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.09%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 0.38% from last week’s price.

Raw materials remain weak and continue to decline

This week (September 16-20), in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, the price of pure benzene fell sharply amidst the sharp drop in crude oil. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing was lowered by 300 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, which had a negative impact on costs. With the introduction of new production capacity, the supply of caprolactam has increased, and market confidence is bearish, resulting in a rapid decline in caprolactam prices. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.16% from last week.

Supply demand

This week (September 16-20), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. Most of the nylon filament market facilities are operating stably, and currently the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in September did not meet expectations, and demand did not substantially improve. Coupled with weak costs, weaving manufacturers have mostly maintained stable production, and foreign trade brands have gradually issued their essential needs. However, the order volume is still mainly in a small quantity and multiple times mode, and there are still few bulk goods. Lack of market confidence.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly, and prices will continue to decline narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8817.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44% compared to the beginning of this month (8607.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Downstream polyether new orders increase, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises is good, inventory is sufficient, and the price trend of epoxy propane market is stabilizing.

Raw material side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has continued to decline. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6760.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is not smooth. Many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and the epoxy propane market has entered a consolidation stage.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in weak rise in epoxy propane prices. Prices tend to stabilize, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11750 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11733/ton, a decrease of 0.14% in price.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have continued to decline this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is mainly dominated by inquiries, with weak transactions and a lack of favorable price support. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The transaction volume of activated carbon market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

August is coming to an end, and the nylon filament market is stabilizing and observing consolidation, with large stability and small movements, and prices slightly rising. The supply and demand of upstream raw material caprolactam are temporarily tight, leading to price increases; There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and businesses lack confidence in the future market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. Overall, as costs continue to rise and demand remains weak, the price of nylon filament remains stable with small fluctuations and a slight upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly increased in August. As of August 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18680 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.21%. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16300 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.15%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Raw materials remain stable and gradually strengthen

In August, the fundamentals of the nylon filament raw material caprolactam market improved, with stable and strengthening cost support. Supply and demand were temporarily tight, and prices rose slightly. On August 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12828.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (12758.33 yuan/ton).

Supply and demand: In August, the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. During the month, most of the nylon filament market equipment operated stably, while some manufacturers reduced their equipment load due to increased inventory. At present, the daily production rate of nylon filament market is around 8.4%. Good support from the demand side is difficult to find, the speed of on-site cargo flow has slowed down, trading activity is average, and market confidence is insufficient.

Future forecast

In terms of raw material caprolactam, the bottom support for caprolactam prices from the cost side is becoming stronger, and the supply of caprolactam in the market may remain relatively normal. Downstream polymerization factories urgently need to purchase. In September, the traditional peak season for textiles is coming, and the trading atmosphere will improve. It is expected that the caprolactam market will mainly consolidate next month. Therefore, it is expected that the cost side support for nylon filament will remain stable and strong next month.

At present, the overall operating rate of the nylon filament market is relatively high, and the supply on site is relatively sufficient. However, some manufacturers’ shipments are weakening, and their equipment will stabilize in the later stage. Therefore, it is expected that the market supply will remain stable next month.

In September, downstream market demand is expected to improve, with stronger demand for raw materials and better support from the demand side. It is expected that downstream manufacturers of nylon filament will have a stable, moderate, and strong demand for nylon filament in September.

Overall, the cost side caprolactam market is expected to remain relatively stable, while the cost side support for nylon filament is becoming stronger. The weak demand side is expected to change. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market in September will mainly follow the stable and strong operation of raw material consolidation, with market prices expected to rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market continued to decline in August 2024. From August 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 7660 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 9.27% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the mixed xylene market continued to decline, and the crude oil market fluctuated widely during the cycle, with insufficient guidance for the market. Sinopec’s listing prices and refinery prices in various regions generally decreased, especially in the Shandong region where refinery prices fell widely. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak and operating. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week, but there is insufficient demand for oil products. The focus of negotiations is relatively low, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Late of the month: The mixed xylene market is weak and volatile, with prices in Shandong and South China initially rising and then falling. As prices continue to remain low, there is some demand for bargain hunting downstream, resulting in a significant improvement in market trading in these two regions and refinery prices rising. However, due to the overall weak trend of the downstream gasoline blending industry and the lack of demand support, the market continues to have insufficient upward momentum, maintaining a stable and weak trend.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in production, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel; The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.58 per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been significantly reduced this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of August 30th, East China Company quoted 7000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6850-6950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6950-7050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The prices of raw materials have been continuously falling, and the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined several times in August, resulting in a sustained downturn in the phthalic anhydride market. At the end of August, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on August 30th, Sinopec executed a price of 8050 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to July 2024. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $927-929/ton as of August 29th, a cumulative decrease of $65/ton from $993/ton at the end of July.

External market: The Asian xylene external market has experienced a wide downward trend during this period, with FOB South Korea closing price of 812-814 US dollars/ton as of August 29th and September; The closing price of CFR China in September is $836 per ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and cost support will be limited. Partial units in Shandong have resumed supply, and the supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose. From the perspective of demand, the downstream market has been operating weakly recently, and the market is maintaining a supply of essential goods. It is expected that in the short term, under the influence of negative market factors, the xylene market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly.