In October, the dichloromethane market initially fluctuated and consolidated, followed by a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.79% from 2990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and it surged to 3030 yuan/ton within the month. In the early stage, stimulated by the parking and maintenance of a certain factory, prices significantly increased. In the later stage, on the one hand, the support for raw materials weakened, and on the other hand, the supply and demand pressure further increased, leading to a significant decline in the market for dichloromethane.

In October, the overall start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and as of late October, the start of methane chloride production in China was around 7.2%.

Weak cost support for dichloromethane in October

In October, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine slightly decreased, and the cost support for dichloromethane weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from 2478 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; At the end of October, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 300 yuan/ton, which was lower than the price of 400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The cost support for dichloromethane was weak in the early stage.

Merchants have a low willingness to stock up and mostly purchase according to demand. Downstream terminals only require immediate support, and some methane chloride enterprises have slightly increased their inventory. The supply and demand side is relatively weak compared to the previous period.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business Society, the high price of dichloromethane raw materials has slightly declined, with weak cost support and a backlog of supply side enterprises that just need to support the demand side. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride in October declined. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8012.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.03% compared to the initial price of 8712.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.67%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China remains at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. In October, downstream procurement was not active, and some phthalic anhydride factories continuously lowered their factory prices, causing a significant decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: Significant decline in ortho benzene, insufficient cost support

In October, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene continued to decline. As of the end of the month, the ortho benzene price was 8200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.87% compared to the beginning of the month price of 8200 yuan/ton. The ortho benzene supply was normal, and the operation of on-site devices was stable. In October, the crude oil price trend declined, and the mixed xylene price correspondingly decreased, resulting in a decrease in raw material prices. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price trend significantly declined, and the decline in ortho benzene market brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

In October, the downstream DOP market price slightly decreased, with a price of 11333.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 2.16% compared to the price of 11583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP has dropped to 11200-11400 yuan/ton. The plasticizer market is not good, which is unfavorable for the phthalic anhydride market, The market price of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Looking at the future market, it is expected that the crude oil price range has fluctuated recently, and the price trend of ortho xylene has declined. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. As a result, it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will decrease slightly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 11800 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11933 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.13%.

The quotation of domestic activated carbon manufacturers has slightly increased, with the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Market transactions have rebounded, with orders being the main source of goods. There is an urgent need for positive news to boost the market, with a focus on downstream market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: There are insufficient positive factors for activated carbon and insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market trend of 1 # tin ingot in East China this week (10.13-10.20) was fluctuating. On October 13th, the average market price was 213810 yuan/ton, and on October 20th, the average market price was 217660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.8%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the tin ingot market has been narrow and volatile.

In terms of the futures market, the main trend in this cycle was the rise and then fall of Shanghai Tin, which was volatile. On Friday, the stock market had low sentiment and weak risk sentiment, with non-ferrous metals generally under pressure and declining, while Shanghai Tin followed suit. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is still a tight supply at the mining end, and the recent changes in smelter production have been limited, with little change in supply compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the downstream market concentrated on buying and restocking before the holiday in September. Recently, it is still digesting inventory, and the intention to restock is low. Recently, the spot market has slightly increased with the tin market, once again suppressing downstream purchasing intentions. However, from the perspective of downstream terminal consumption, there has not been a significant improvement, and market expectations for the future are weak. With the increase in domestic import sources, domestic tin ingot inventory continues to accumulate, which is negative for the market. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated and declined. In the future, it is expected that the tin market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

On October 22, the base metal index stood at 1194 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 85.98% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 42nd week of 2023 (10.16-10.20) commodity price rise and fall list, with cobalt (4.25%), gold (2.21%), and lead (1.11%) among the top 3 commodities that rose. There are a total of 11 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.80%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-1.53%), and zinc (-1.49%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.07%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on October 16th this week was 2200 yuan/ton, and on October 20th it was 2150 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.27%.

On October 16th, the center of gravity of concentrated nitric acid quotation continued to shift downwards, and the factory’s shipment pressure was obvious. The acid factory’s equipment was operating normally, and the market supply was stable. There was an urgent need to boost prices and demand was not good.

During the period of 10.16-10.20, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 6.54%, the downstream aniline price increased by 2.22%, the TDI price decreased by 0.53%, and the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.46%. At present, the main downstream aniline factories are experiencing weak acid recovery, and the demand for pesticides, pickling and other industries is not good. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may be mainly fluctuating and weak.

Price trend

In the first half of October, the domestic POM market fluctuated and fell, with many spot prices dropping. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 15th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.33% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong region has been organizing and operating recently. In the past two months, the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range after the holiday. The price of raw material methanol has shown a slight downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream procurement remains in demand, while the formaldehyde market has light trading volume, providing general support for POM.

On the supply side:

In the first half of October, multiple domestic POM enterprises resumed work or increased their load, and the overall operating rate increased. At the end of last month, the industry load was about 69%, and after half a month of climb, the overall operating rate is currently approaching 80% and entering a high level. In terms of source of goods, most enterprises’ warehouses undertake low levels in the early stage, and their inventory positions are still acceptable. However, due to the impact of early profit market competition, it has dragged down the profit space of merchants and aggregation factories. The supply side has loosened its support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

In the early stage, the construction level of domestic POM downstream enterprises was not high, but there was still a shortage of goods to stimulate. But after the holiday, the company returned to work slowly and mainly digested the pre stocking inventory. On market trading is weak, making it difficult to release POM consumption. In addition, many business owners have bearish sentiment, making follow-up operations more cautious. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of October, the POM market fluctuated and fell. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased, the supply of goods on site has increased, and suppliers have loosened their support for spot goods. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level and digest inventory. Be cautious in purchasing operations and resist high priced sources. There is a lack of trading on the market, and competition among traders is intensifying. Overall, in the first half of October, it is difficult to find both supply and demand side benefits, and in the short term, there are expectations of supply easing in the industry. Therefore, it is expected that the POM market may continue to experience a weak downward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.93%, and the weekend price increased by 43.09% year-on-year. On October 15th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.52, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 51.13% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7200.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7038.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.64% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, dropping from 10475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, and the weekend price has increased by 2.97% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late October may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1130 yuan/ton on October 7th, and 1126 yuan/ton on October 13th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has slightly decreased this week. The international market has fallen, while the domestic urea price has fallen, which has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. Downstream and dealers are mainly wait-and-see, and their enthusiasm for purchasing goods has weakened. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have reduced operating rates and reduced demand for ammonium sulfate procurement. As of October 13th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1070 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1130-1170 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the recent slight adjustment in the price of ammonium sulfate has resulted in low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream and distributors. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell first and then rose in September. The price of isooctanol first decreased from 12960.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11640.00 yuan/ton on September 25th, a decrease of 10.19%. Later, it rose to 12020.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.26%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 35.56% year-on-year. Overall, octanol prices fluctuated and fell by 7.25% in September.

On September 27th, the isooctanol commodity index was 86.03, an increase of 0.44 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 37.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 144.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market prices of isooctanol in Shandong have significantly decreased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and rises

In September, the factory price of propylene fluctuated and increased, rising from 7113.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7285.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 4.27% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with increased cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side: DOP market falls first and then rises

In September, the DOP market price first fell and then rose. The price of DOP first decreased from 12009.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11350.00 yuan/ton on September 20th, a decrease of 549%, and then rose to 11583.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.06%. The price at the end of the month increased by 16.07% year-on-year. Overall, the DOP market fell by 3.55% in September. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early October, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has an upward trend at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price slightly increased in September. The average price of mainstream tetrahydrofuran market in China increased from 12975.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13200.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.73%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 25.00% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in September, with the price rising from 7220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8579.80 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 18.83%. The price at the end of the month increased by 1.66% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side, the spandex market price slightly increased in September. The price of spandex increased from 34000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 34250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.74%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 2.14% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early October, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.