Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6770 yuan/ton on September 23, and domestic PVC quoted 6725 yuan/ton on September 29. The overall decline was 0.66%. This week, the PVC market fell slightly.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, PVC futures continued to fall, driving spot prices to follow the market trend, the actual spot delivery climate is not warm, resulting in narrow consolidation of PVC prices, prices fell slightly. Near the National Day, the downstream stock gradually ended, the purchaser’s cautious wait-and-see attitude was dominant, just needed to purchase, the phenomenon of business profit delivery was obvious, and transport costs increased, market transaction prices were mostly concentrated in the middle and low end. As of September 29, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range is 6460-6850 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 38 th week of 2019 (9.23-9.27), there were three kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in rubber-plastic plate, two of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate; the first three commodities were cis-butadiene rubber (7.28%), nitrile rubber (6.68%) and styrene-butadiene rubber (4.20%). There were 8 kinds of goods that declined annually. The first three products were natural rubber (-2.14%), PET (-1.57%) and HDPE (-1.15%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Analyst PVC thinks: on the eve of the national day, the lower reaches of the stock market are coming to an end. Buyers are cautious about wait-and-see attitude. They just need to purchase. After the National Day holiday, the upstream enterprises will have a centralized overhaul tide, and the market supply will increase.

Price Trend

The ex-factory price of ethylene oxide is 8000 yuan/ton in East China, 8200 yuan/ton in South China and North China, and 8100 yuan/ton in Central and Northeast China. The executive price of Lianhong Group is 8,200 yuan/ton, while that of Srbang, Jiangsu Province is 8,000 yuan/ton.

2. Products:

Ethylene oxide prices in eastern, southern and Northern China did not fluctuate this month. Ethylene oxide prices in Wuhan, central China, were lowered by 200 yuan/ton on the 17th, from 8300 yuan/ton to 8100 yuan/ton, while prices in Northeast China were slightly lowered by 200 yuan/ton on the 19th, with the implementation of 8100 yuan/ton. In terms of equipment, it is reported that after the festival, the production enterprises plan to overhaul, which has a great impact on the production. If the information is implemented, it will have a considerable impact on the supply side, in favor of ethylene oxide.

III. Industrial chain:

Ethylene bottomed out in the middle and early part of this month, with low volatility. Ethylene glycol de-stocking achieved initial results and rose steadily and moderately. In the second half of the year, crude oil rose sharply because of emergencies, which triggered a sharp reaction downstream like cold water dripping into hot oil. The international situation was tense. The price of ethylene rose while the price of ethylene rose. The downstream ethylene glycol also pumped up. The impact gradually weakened, the price of ethylene dropped, and the price of ethylene glycol remained stable. Inventory of downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises is low, but the market bearish atmosphere is strong, combined with the impact of two sections, the start-up rate declined, and prices fell slightly.

Forecast:

Fundamental support is still acceptable, the price is temporarily stable, follow-up needs to pay close attention to plant maintenance information.

Price Trend

PS market quotations fell slightly, and poor downstream demand is the main factor hindering the overall market climate to improve. Price: GPPS mainstream offer is 10,200-10,600 yuan/ton, HIPS mainstream offer is 10,700-12,000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

PS market quotation: Zhanjiang Sino-US PS ex-factory price, 525 quoted for 10050 yuan/ton. CITIC Guoan PS ex-factory price, 525 offer for 9850 yuan/ton. The market turnover and delivery situation is weak, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

3. Future Market Forecast

PS market trend is weak. The downstream factories have general inquiries and are mainly cautious. It is expected that PS will operate steadily in general and may increase in a narrow range locally.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite market price declined slightly this week. The weekend price was 2877.78 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from 2888.89 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 7.41% year on year. Recently, the fluorite price has slightly decreased.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic fluorite price trend continued to decline, mainly due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand, the recent downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industry for fluorite demand has declined, the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, fluorite market is poor, and fluorite plant start-up rate maintained high, but the downstream demand situation. Generally, the spot supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite is on the decline. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-3 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite declined slightly when the price of fluorite dropped by 1000 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell slightly this week. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 10 320 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell by 0.48% this week. The decline of market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is a big negative factor in the fluorite market. The domestic fluorite market was affected by the decline. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline, fluorite products on the spot supply is sufficient, the market is poor, fluorite market prices slightly lower.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant has started normal recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry keeps falling, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry is worse. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst at business associations, thinks that the price of fluorite will be slightly lower in the later stage, or about 2800 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene oxide fell by 1.56% as of September 23, compared with 22. On September 23, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 10300-10800 yuan/ton.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The market price of propylene oxide fell on the 23rd. Purchasing rhythm of downstream polyether market has slowed down, and the supply and demand of the market are basically balanced. The cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10500 yuan/ton on 23rd, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 108 00 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in eastern China is around 10 600 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10 200 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in southern China is around 10 200 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene market in Shandong Province remained stable on 23rd. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province remained flat on the 23rd. At present, the market turnover is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7800 yuan/ton. On the 23rd, the downstream polyether market fell with raw materials, weak operation, cold trading atmosphere, strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and limited buying.

3. Future market forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that propylene oxide prices stabilized after the fall, propylene oxide manufacturers to actively ship, downstream demand is relatively light, no good support for the time being, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be mainly weak operation.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 223.00 yuan/ton, which is 1.62% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 70.79 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride factory quotation for the weekend is 2200 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2260 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Late September potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of caprolactam in the domestic market continued to rise this month. On September 1st, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 1 2033 yuan/ton, and on September 20th, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 12 600 yuan/ton, up by 4.71%. On September 20, the caprolactam commodity index was 63.37, which was 36.63% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2017-03-02), and 8.96% higher than the 58.16 point on May 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: The price of caprolactam liquid market rebounded in mid-early September. The mainstream price of domestic liquid caprolactam market is 12020-13200 yuan per ton. As of September 20, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was 12300 yuan/ton. Cash was discharged from the factory. The first and second phases of caprolactam plant were running normally and the actual transaction was negotiable. The price of caprolactam liquid in Sanning, Hubei Province was 12800 yuan/ton, which was the main contract and 140,000 tons of caprolactam plant was running normally. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 12700 yuan / ton, and the unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance. Domestic caprolactam start-up rate is stable.

Industry chain: The price of cyclohexanone in upstream has risen sharply. On September 20, the reference value of cyclohexanone was 9000.00. Cyclohexanone market rose broadly, Saudi Arabia was attacked during the Mid-Autumn Festival, crude oil soared, pure benzene soared recently, the cost of cyclohexanone was strongly supported, the factory spot supply was normal, and the price was low. Downstream PA6 prices rose. On September 20, the reference price of PA6 was 14666.67. Traders’mainstream offer of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 14666.67 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream demand of the traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is limited. In addition, the supply of PA6 in domestic factories tends to expand. Affected by this trend, the supply and demand of PA6 are closely watched by the industry, and the buyers and sellers are gradually cautious in their operation.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association caprolactam believe that the market price of caprolactam is rising due to the rising price of raw materials upstream and insufficient stock. Downstream aggregation factories are actively following the upsurge and stocking up on demand. The price of PA6 slices increased. It is expected that the future caprolactam market will be firm due to increased costs, but it is slightly difficult to continue to rise, so cautious operation is recommended.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the urea ex-factory price in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with an offer of 1840.00 yuan/ton, down 8.61% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was stable this week, with the urea commodity index of 85.58 on September 13.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory price in Shandong Province is stable. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1820 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1900 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by previous environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products fell: natural gas prices fell from 3050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2980.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.30%, 23.57% year-on-year; liquid ammonia prices stabilized temporarily this week, quoted at 3193.33 yuan/ton, down 10.80% year-on-year. The cost support of urea is weak and the purchasing capacity of downstream melamine is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In mid-September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in mid-September.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic butanone market continued to rise this week. As of September 12, the overall average price of butanone market was around 9133 yuan/ton based on comprehensive quotations from several mainstream regions. Compared with September 6, the average price of butanone market rose by 1200 yuan/ton, up by 15.13%, up by 2400 yuan/ton, up by 1 September. As high as 35.64%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Last week’s butanone market has been booming. Beginning early this week, the butanone market continues to rise steadily. The factory stock is seriously insufficient. The quotation of distributors in Shandong is 900 yuan higher than that of September 9 and September 12. Dongming Pear Tree Chemical Co. Ltd. increased its quotation by 1100 yuan/ton on September 12 after parking for 3 days at the beginning of this week (September 9). At present, the quotation for butanone is 9300 yuan/ton. At the present stage, most factories are seriously short of stock and short of stock. Most factories and distributors quote prices at pre-sale prices after 2 weeks. Short-term shortage of butanone market still exists. Factory price-stabilizing mentality has risen and spot supply has been depressed. At present, TRADERS’quotations continue to be firm. Changzhou Yeshuo Petrochemical Co., Ltd. sells butanone in stock. On September 12th, butanone is quoted at 9500 yuan/ton; Nantong Zhongkai Chemical Co., Ltd. sells butanone in advance for one week, and on September 12th, butanone is quoted at 9600 yuan/ton. At present, the price of butanone in East China is around 9300-9400 yuan/ton, while that in South China and North China is around 9200-9300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: After the upstream raw material ether, the trend of carbon Tetra (Shandong market) tends to be stable after continuous rise, and the price has been stable due to the influence of favorable or bad factors. The price of the upstream raw material liquefied gas market is stable as a whole, and the quotations of some manufacturers fluctuate slightly. At present, the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in North China is 3450-3600 yuan/ton. About 3,470-3,900 yuan/ton is the mainstream price in Shandong liquefied gas market, and about 3,500 yuan/ton is the mainstream price in East China liquefied gas market.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising on September 11, 2019, which are concentrated in the non-ferrous plate (4 kinds) and the chemical plate (3 kinds). The top three commodities are pure benzene (3.42%), silver (1.62%) and pig (1.20%). There were 14 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, focusing on non-ferrous (3 kinds in total) and agricultural and sideline (3 kinds in total). The first three commodities falling were eggs (-3.93%), liquefied natural gas (-0.88%) and WTI crude oil (-0.78%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.04%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that the current shortage of butanone supply in many factories, pre-sold goods, it is expected that in late September, the butanone market will still be in a strong upward state.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices have risen sharply and plasticizer prices have risen recently. As of September 9, the price of DOP in East China was 7566.67 yuan/ton, up 3.18% from 7333.33 yuan/ton in early September, and down 19.43% from the same period last year. DOP prices are lower than in previous years, DOP still has room to rise.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

This week, the price of DOP’s external quotation has risen sharply, which is good for the DOP market. DOP in China quoted 900 US dollars per ton this week, up 10 US dollars per ton from last week’s price of 890 US dollars per ton, DOP in Southeast Asia price of 1130 US dollars per ton, price stabilization compared with last week; DOP equipment start-up rate of plasticizer enterprises maintained, demand rose, overall plasticizer DOP market has a certain advantage.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

For raw materials, the price trend of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, the price of octanol has also warmed up, and the overall cost of DOP has risen sharply. The pressure of DOP rise in the future market is huge, and it is expected that the market will rise mainly after DOP.

On the downstream demand side, the price of PVC has been warming up recently, and the demand for PVC has risen. Overall, the DOP market in the future is good, and the DOP rising space in the future increases.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst, believes that DOP raw material prices have risen sharply in recent years, DOP costs have risen, and the pressure of DOP increases in the future market has increased; on the demand side, the overall market of the plastic industry has warmed up, which is beneficial to the idling of plasticizer market, and the rising space of DOP in the future has increased; on the external side, DOP prices have risen slightly, which is beneficial to DOP. Good but limited. Overall, the sharp rise in raw materials led to the increase in DOP costs, DOP has a greater momentum, and the revival of the plastic industry also provides room for the rise of DOP, DOP prices are expected to rise sharply in the future.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was supported by raw materials and went up broadly. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) was 2880 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 3040 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 5.56%, which was 35.11% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market rose sharply this week. In the early period, the domestic supply was excessive as a whole. In addition, August was the off-season of market demand and the terminal consumption was slow. Cost methanol and liquefied petroleum gas market trend is weak, bearish market mentality, downstream market entry caution, wait-and-see, prices continue to bottom. The off-season ends and enters September. Influenced by the gas market, it ushered in the traditional sales peak season. The market demand will improve, but there is no obvious improvement at present. The main reason for this rebound is the strong rise of raw material methanol, the rise in cost has seriously reduced the profits of dimethyl ether enterprises, some enterprises have been in a loss state, so there has been a stop-drop rebound. This week, Henan Heart-to-Heart End Bottom Guarantee, Wednesday began to lead the rally, tentative upward, the market response is still acceptable, manufacturers shipment situation improved, the latter continued to rise, small factories around have followed the rally. Influenced by the rising cost of methanol, the dimethyl ether Market is strong, with a rise of 5.56% in the week.

Industry chain:
Methanol: This week, the domestic methanol market is on the strong side, driven by the rise in futures prices, the trading atmosphere in the mainland is good, the price is advancing with the trend. The main producing areas have increased by 90-130 yuan/ton this week, and North China, Shandong and other places have followed. The Harbor was on the strong side of the shocks. The harbor rose by 100 yuan/ton this week. The total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 23.613 million tons, an increase of 93.7 million tons over the same period last week, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing area have been increased since August. In methanol to olefins, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plants have resumed normal production.

Liquefied Gas: This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market has been narrowly adjusted, and the fluctuation is not obvious. At the beginning of the week, crude oil fell for two consecutive days, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the downstream consumption rate increased slowly. Most of the manufacturers’inventories are above the middle level. Shandong market yields slightly and deliveries mainly. Thursday’s surge in international crude oil boosted the liquefied petroleum gas market, but it was not obvious. Manufacturers stopped falling and maintained stability, guaranteed priority for shipments, and the trading atmosphere in the market was tepid in the week. September is the traditional sales season, spot market trend with signs of recovery, but the downstream consumption rate is not as fast as expected.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that the cost: methanol market is expected to show a regional market next week, the trend will be reflected in the stable rise and fall; liquefied gas market downstream consumption rate is slow, expected to rise steadily in the next week. Demand: Dimethyl ether Market actual demand is still weak, next week Hebei Jichun and Qinyang Shengxin resumed production, increased supply, market negative. However, due to the impact of the traditional gas market sales peak season, there is still some support for the market. Expect future market or narrow upstream.

Price data

This week (9.2-9.6) the price of petroleum coke fell sharply. According to the data of business associations, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1 232.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 1 242.20 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 9.40 yuan/ton in the week and down 0.76%.

On September 6, the petroleum coke commodity index was 96.62, up 0.32 points from yesterday, down 37.90% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 44.45% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke shipments are stable this week, prices remain stable as a whole, and stocks remain low and medium.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was $55.10 per barrel at the beginning of the week, and $56.30 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 2.18%; Brent crude oil was $60.43 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $60.95 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 0.86%. Tension of international trade relations, U.S. crude oil production and stock boost affect the trend of international crude oil. Downstream: In the pre-festival stock-up stage of carbon enterprises in September, they basically received the goods according to plan. The delivery of calcined coke was basically stable this week. The electrolytic aluminium market had no obvious favorable support, and most of them purchased on demand. According to business association data, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of September 6 was 14413.33 yuan per ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35 th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 9 kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.56%), methanol (4.81%) and MTBE (4.43%). There are five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio. The first three products falling are coke (-3.74%), coking coal (-1.36%) and liquefied gas (-0.63%). This week’s average rise and fall was 1.05%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of business associations predict that the market price of petroleum coke has risen slightly this week. At present, refinery stocks are low. Carbon enterprises basically take delivery according to plan. The market of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminium has no obvious favorable support. Most of them are purchased on demand. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will be stable next week. Some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, and the price range is about 1200-1300 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of polysilicon market in this week (8.26-30) has not changed much compared with last week, slightly declined, up 0.45%. The market as a whole shows signs of stabilization and stabilization. Over the weekend, domestic enterprises quoted an average of 59,000-62,000 yuan/ton, and the current price has fallen by about 30% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

The domestic polycrystalline silicon market is stable this week. The price has not changed much compared with last week. At present, the supply and demand in August are still in a relatively balanced state. Only the source of imports is affected by RMB exchange rate adjustment, and the price of RMB is slightly increased by US dollar-denominated imports. At present, the domestic price of polycrystalline silicon solar grade grade grade grade I material is between 5900-62000 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply and demand, as far as polycrystalline silicon is concerned, the supply is basically balanced, while the downstream demand is still slightly insufficient, so the price has not improved significantly. First of all: from the supply point of view, the actual stock in the market is not large. Two overseas silicon factories are expected to return to full production in September, while one or two domestic silicon factories are expected to be repaired, with a steady slight increase in supply. In addition, in terms of demand, downstream demand is stable at present, the overall domestic demand has not yet warmed up, and the purchase of conventional size batteries is still at a low level. In addition, although the demand for conventional size batteries is still low, the demand for large size batteries and double-sided PERC batteries is warming up, with the increase of demand. Many component factories have upgraded their production lines and higher wattage products are needed in the terminal market. It is expected that the actual shipments of large size batteries and double-sided batteries will also increase significantly in the fourth quarter.

In the future, business analysts believe that the current performance of the polysilicon market is unsatisfactory, the market as a whole lacks reasons for market breakthroughs, market demand and supply are not strong, and ultimately the downstream demand lacks substantial advantages. In addition, the Sino-US trade war led to the imposition of tariffs on China’s photovoltaic products, which also depressed domestic manufacturers. Initiative, polysilicon will inevitably be affected. It is expected that the market will remain narrow adjustment in the near future. With the increase of equipment maintenance in September, price rebound due to tight supply will not be excluded in the later period.

Commodity index: Polyaluminium chloride commodity index on August 30 was 108.11, unchanged from yesterday, 0.83% lower than the cycle peak of 109.01 points (2019-08-28), and 7.15% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: Among the manufacturers monitored by the main stream of business associations, the price of polyaluminium chloride rose significantly in the middle and late August. On August 19, the price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was 1933.33 yuan/ton, and on the 30th day, the price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was 2000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.45%. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is: the price of solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (> 28%) containing tax is about 1850-2200 yuan/ton, the price of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) containing tax is about 350-500 yuan/ton, and the quotation of individual manufacturers is rising, among which the solid quotation is about 350-500 yuan/ton. Up 100-200 yuan/ton, liquid up to 50 yuan/ton or so, domestic mainstream quotation overall up by 2-4%.

Industry chain: In recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid is stable this week. Business society monitoring data show that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 133.33 yuan/ton on the 19th, 123.33 yuan/ton on the 30th and 10 yuan/ton on the 30th. The downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is stable. At present, some polyaluminium chloride manufacturers are still in the shutdown period, relying on inventory to deliver goods, giving priority to the consumption of old downstream customers, and the supply of new customers is affected.

Industry: 1. Notice of shutdown: In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “Notice of shutdown” recently. The notice requests: According to the analysis of environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the municipal attack and fortification office requests all enterprises in-depth control to stop production and control before acceptance. Production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance according to key problems. This week, local manufacturers said they were allowed to resume production for 10 days and asked to stop production again from the 15th. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance.

Attachment: Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: Business association analysis shows that due to the impact of environmental shutdown, manufacturers in Gongyi District of Henan Province have a holiday, downstream demand is stable, polyaluminium chloride manufacturers can only give priority to inventory supply to old customers, supply is tight, new customers find it difficult to get goods, prices rise significantly. September 8 is approaching, Gongyi factory supply situation eased after the resumption of production, prices will fall, it is expected that the resumption period will continue to maintain the current price; Hebei and other provinces prices have been relatively stable.

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 7,000 yuan/ton on August 30, with a small fluctuation and a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of carbon black was mainly volatile.

Market quotation

Domestic carbon black sales are still acceptable, the quotation is still mainly stable. Domestic automotive industry production and marketing data showed a continuous decline, demand decline and other adverse factors, the company’s downstream tire industry start-up and purchasing willingness declined; upstream carbon black raw oil by the coking industry capacity contraction, prices have always maintained high operation, comprehensive factors led to the company’s main product carbon black gross interest rate declined, half a year. Year-on-year performance declined.

Industry dynamics

China Rubber Industry Association Carbon Black Branch issued the “Carbon Black Industry Self-Discipline Initiative”. The Initiative said that since the second half of last year, the carbon black industry has experienced unprecedented difficulties and the whole industry has suffered losses. In order to ensure the normal production and operation of the carbon black industry, enterprises are encouraged to consciously limit their production and limit their production range. According to the market demand, on the basis of the original output, the production is limited by 10%-20%, ensuring the balance of supply and demand in the market; stabilizing the market of carbon black raw oil and not participating in the bad competitive behavior of driving up the price of raw oil; stabilizing the market sales and selling according to the reasonable profit space; and also requiring that China’s carbon black exported to the international market should not compete disorderly. 。

Future market forecast: Carbon black market is expected to rebound in the future stable market.