1、 Price trend

The average price of n-butanol was 5566 yuan / ton (including tax) as of February 24, down 133 yuan or 2.34% compared with that of last Monday (February 17), according to the data of business agency. On February 23, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 46.20, unchanged from yesterday, 53.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.00 (2011-10-08), and 54.57% higher than the lowest point, 29.89, on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at the beginning of last week, as the downstream continued to resume work, the butanol market was consolidated and operated, supported by the strong rise of propylene, the load of upstream and downstream plants was low, the downstream demand increased, the market demand slightly improved, and the market trading atmosphere was general. Last week, the large orders of n-butanol market remained at the low end. In the middle of the week, the market inventory accumulated, some manufacturers declined, some sources of goods were still under pressure, and market inquiries were still limited. Some factories in Shandong reported lower prices, and the downstream recovery was still less than expected. The market demand was flat at the weekend, and the manufacturers’ inventory was overstocked at the weekend, the trading was poor, and the price focus was shifted down. Today (Feb. 24), Wanhua chemical reduced 300-400 yuan / ton in each region this week compared with the previous week. At present, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is 5500 yuan / ton, that of n-butanol in East China is 5700 yuan / ton, and that of n-butanol in North China is 5850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On the 11th, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. In the next few days, the price rose and fell differently. Since the 17th, the price has been generally increased. Last week, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been greatly increased. From last Thursday and Friday, some enterprises began to show a slight upward trend. This week, the price of propylene has increased by 8.45%. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week is 6103 yuan / ton. The average price of enterprises at the end of the week is 6618 yuan / ton. As of February 21, there is still an increase of about 200 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6600 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the propylene market has rebounded to the bottom recently, and the crude oil market has not changed much, but it has been raised for several days in a row. There are still many units in the upstream which are shut down for maintenance. In a short time, the supply is difficult to recover, and the propylene output is small. However, the terminal manufacturers have started to resume work one after another, the logistics and transportation have also recovered, and the demand for propylene has increased significantly. Moreover, the PP futures market has been climbing up continuously, and the downstream promotes procurement. Therefore, the It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the supply side of the n-butanol market is relatively sufficient at present, and it is expected that the main market will be digestion inventory in the short term. It is speculated that the n-butanol market is still weak and stable in the near future.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2380 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, up 15.16% year on year. On February 20, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 125.26, unchanged from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 61.90% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices is general. Affected by the epidemic situation, some ammonium nitrate enterprises have not yet started construction. The on-site supply is stable, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, but the recent transportation is subject to certain restrictions, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are limited to start work, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China rose slightly this week, with the weekend price of 1593.33 yuan / ton, up 1.05% this week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1550 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1700 yuan / ton. In recent years, the parking rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is less, the situation of goods in the yard is general, and the price of nitric acid market rises slightly. The rise of nitric acid price is a good influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

The overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is relatively loose, the unit operating rate of enterprises is slightly higher, and the market price of liquid ammonia is lower. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions, while the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. With the high rate of start-up of liquid ammonia units in Hubei Province, the price trend of liquid ammonia slightly drops by 0.90%. In addition, in the near future, the maintenance of some manufacturers has been restarted, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises has increased, and the local liquid ammonia market may decline, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is mainly declining. The overall price of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is lower, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable temporarily.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, some ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not recovered, but the market price of raw materials has increased slightly, which has certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

The average price of lithium hydroxide as of February 17 was 57000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of February 14, according to the data in the bulk list of business associations. In a three-month cycle, it fell 15.76% year-on-year. On February 17, the lithium hydroxide commodity index was 135.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.43% from 381.48 (2016-09-12), the highest point in the cycle, and up 35.71% from 100.00, the lowest point on September 4, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium hydroxide was stable on February 17. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is around 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the near future, the upstream lithium carbonate market is dominated by stable operation, and the quotation of some enterprises is increased. As of February 17, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China is 43900 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China is 51200 yuan / ton. Due to the postponement of the factory’s return to work, the main reason is the consumption of inventory. In addition, there are certain restrictions on transportation. The cost of logistics rises, and the price of lithium carbonate rises slightly. In the later stage, with the resumption of production and the increase of market supply, the price of lithium carbonate may stabilize.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the upstream lithium carbonate market has increased slightly in the recent period, with general cost support performance, and low demand for industrial lithium hydroxide. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be dominated by low consolidation and wait-and-see operation.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, this week’s lithium carbonate market is dominated by stable operation, with some enterprises’ quotations increased. The main reason for this increase is that the current inventory is low, but the market demand is large. In addition, affected by the epidemic, logistics costs have increased. As of February 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 43900 yuan / ton, up 1.39% compared with the beginning of the week. On February 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 51200 yuan / ton, up 0.79% compared with that at the beginning of the week.

On February 16, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 111.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 72.39% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.51% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the lithium carbonate analyst of business association, due to the delay of most of the factory’s resumption of work, the main reason is the consumption of inventory, and certain restrictions on transportation, the price of lithium carbonate rises slightly. In the later stage, with the resumption of production and the increase of market supply, the price of lithium carbonate may stabilize, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of the enterprise’s commencement and logistics transportation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of Friday (February 14) is 5633 yuan / ton (including tax), which is 267 yuan / ton lower than that of February 7, down 4.52%, 400 yuan / ton lower than that before the Spring Festival, down 6.63%. On February 13, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 45.92, down 1.09 points from yesterday, 54.08% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and 53.63% higher than the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the quotation of domestic n-butanol market in Shandong started to loosen slightly since last Friday compared with that before the Spring Festival, and the market inquiry atmosphere is general. At the beginning of this week, the market situation of n-butanol was temporarily stable, the market was consolidated and operated, the load and inventory of mainstream manufacturers were low, the delivery and investment atmosphere was improved, but it was still poor. The downstream resumption increased but was far less than expected, and the cost support was weakened. Although the transportation was gradually improved, there was still some uncertainty in the resumption of all links of the industrial chain. The upstream and downstream industrial chains still need time to be repaired, and the high price of n-butanol was quoted Unable to make good progress. There is still pressure in terms of automobile transportation. The manufacturer mainly sells around, accumulates inventory, and moves down the focus of transaction. Zhou Zhong (February 12) made a downward move in the high-end offer of domestic n-butanol market, and the offer was lowered. As of February 14, Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. cut 200 yuan / ton in each region in this week. At present, the ex factory offer of n-butanol in North China is 5900 yuan / ton, and the ex factory offer of n-butanol in North China is 6250 yuan / ton , the factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is 6259 yuan / ton. The collective pricing price of Luxi Chemical Industry is 5800 yuan / ton, with medium load. At present, the low price of n-butanol market is acceptable.

Industry chain: this week, the domestic propylene market continued to be weak, the recovery of terminal demand was slow, the operating rate of propylene and downstream units continued to decline, a small amount of downstream demand chose low procurement, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak. As of February 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong has increased or decreased. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline sharply, and the domestic propylene price also fell for many times. Since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at low price under the inventory pressure, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to fluctuate in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, the low-end price transactions of the surrounding market of the n-butanol manufacturers have eased this week, and the inventory has been released. With the further recovery of logistics and transportation, it is expected that the n-butanol market will not be tested for the low-end price, and the market will maintain stable operation next week.

1、 Price trend

Propane market was stable and down this week. On February 3, the average price of propane market was 3775 yuan / ton, and on February 7, the average price was 3725 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.32% in the week, 8.87% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall domestic propane market is down this week, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. As of February 7, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not quoted temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3750 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3600 yuan / ton.

Propane showed a downward trend this week, with a general trading atmosphere in the market. This week’s overall decline in international crude oil, coupled with a sharp fall in CP prices in February, was negative for the propane Market. Affected by the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is low, coupled with limited traffic, and the market atmosphere is general. During the holiday period, the inventory of manufacturers has been overstocked, so they have to continuously yield profits, stimulate the downstream market, and relieve the inventory pressure. Under the continuous stimulation of the upstream, the enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved compared with the beginning of the week, and the price drop has decreased.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

Although the downstream storage and replenishment demand after the festival, there is no substantial change in the terminal demand of the propane Market, and the international market is in a downturn, the overall atmosphere of the market is general. However, after the festival, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is relatively large, and the main reason is to make more profits for shipment. It is expected that the market will still fall next week.

Last week, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China was slightly lower. On weekends, most of the quotations of enterprises were lower than that at the beginning of the week. Some enterprises in the northern region were slightly lower, but the range was not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, last week’s (2.3-7) drop of liquid ammonia was 0.82%, but compared with that before the year, the drop of liquid ammonia price was obvious, generally 300-500 yuan / ton, down more than 8%, It is mainly because on the one hand, affected by the off-season atmosphere of the festival, on the other hand, after the year, the start-up of enterprises is generally delayed, the market enters a window period, few dealers enter the market, and they are generally in a state of closure. On the other hand, affected by the traffic, the transportation of liquid ammonia also enters a bottleneck period, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of liquid ammonia after the year. After the rebound in the first ten days of January 2020, the market of Shandong and Hebei enterprises in the main production areas has been repeated in the middle and last ten days, and the operating rate of liquid ammonia has been relatively low, most of them have turned to urea, and they are even frozen after the year. The main quotation in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton.

In North China, the liquid ammonia also fell steadily. The lack of demand led to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After the transformation to urea, the ammonia quantity was controlled. The inventory pressure of the enterprise was slightly relieved, but at present, there are many downstream stoppages, and the transportation was blocked, and the price fell. The main quotation in North China is 2500-2600 yuan / ton up and down.

In Hebei Province, on the one hand, the production and transportation problems are serious, and the production and sales are not prosperous. On the other hand, the environmental protection pressure is still not negligible, which leads to the limited production and shutdown of enterprises. Especially, the downstream distributors are generally closed, the enterprise inventory can not be cleared in time, there are many inventories, and the price is mainly downward. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2550-2650 yuan / ton.

At the end of the week, the market in Central China mainly declined, and the delivery pressure in Hubei increased significantly compared with that before the festival. Transportation is the most difficult area. Part of Henan Province is affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gives more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is shrouded in a bad atmosphere and weak operation, and the main quotation in Henan Province is 2450-2550 yuan / ton up and down. In addition, the northwest region is not smooth, and the enterprise quotation has dropped to 2400 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market is slightly adjusted, the production rate of manufacturers is relatively low, the quotation of enterprises is mainly downward, most enterprises have room to make profits, many units are converted to urea production, and the production of liquid ammonia is affected to some extent, so as to balance the overstock of manufacturers’ inventory. However, with the coming of the spring farming season, the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will expand, and it is expected that the short-term market will be stable and the medium-term price will be stable There is a rebound demand.