Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the copper price first rose and then fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 73670 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 74075 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 0.55% and a year-on-year increase of 4.45%.

According to the current chart of business society, in April, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price in two months, indicating that everyone was optimistic about the future market of copper price.

According to LME inventory, copper inventory rebounded in April.

Macro aspect: according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in March, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. Due to the complex international situation and repeated domestic epidemics, China’s macro economy is facing unprecedented pressure, macro risks still exist, non-ferrous metals are under obvious pressure, and the price fluctuation range is increased.

In terms of supply: since March, there have been outbreaks in many places in China. Measures such as 24-hour nucleic acid in the market and nucleic acid at the scene of high-speed intersections have been introduced one after another. The logistics is not smooth, resulting in the overstock of inventory in the factory and in transit of some enterprises. The short-term social inventory will continue to increase, which will suppress the price of raw materials.

Demand: the impact of the epidemic on downstream and end consumption will continue to ferment. Some cities still have strict prevention and control policies. Some downstream processing enterprises are facing problems such as insufficient raw materials and difficult capital turnover. The operating rate of enterprises has declined and the market consumption has been significantly affected.

From the above situation, it has always been the traditional peak consumption season from March to April, but this year’s “gold, silver and four” did not appear. Under the continuous interference of the domestic epidemic, the market demand is weak, the logistics transportation in many places is blocked, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is far lower than that in the same period last year. On the eve of the domestic May Day holiday, the downstream terminal is expected to have a wave of demand for goods, or support the copper price. However, the hawks of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and shrinking tables at the weekend suppressed the price. Overall, the market uncertainty is still high. The epidemic situation may improve in May, and the copper price or shock is expected to be strong.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly in April, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of April 27, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 26750 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 13.71% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of domestic adipic acid gradually fell in April, and the market stopped falling and stabilized at the end of the month. In the middle of the month, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell, the supply of adipic acid increased, while the terminal demand was still cautious and the transaction was not ideal, resulting in the continuous weak operation of adipic acid. The domestic supply of adiponitrile is abundant, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid has a poor market, the market supply of adiponitrile is abundant, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. At present, there are limited changes in the operating rate of the industry, and the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises is generally in high dynamic balance. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, which has a certain suppression on the profits of PA66 enterprises. In terms of port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In addition, at present, the impact of domestic health events on East China has not ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some downstream factories in China has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand has become more and more serious, and merchants have great shipping resistance. On site transactions declined, the seller’s mentality was poor, and the operation continued to reduce prices and take orders.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to decline weakly in April. The market of adiponitrile on the raw material side was weak, the market of adipic acid also fell, and the cost side support of PA66 was poor. The load of PA66 enterprise is high, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream increases. The demand side has a deep resistance to the supply of high price goods, and the market trading continues to be sluggish. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 26, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 13250.00 yuan / ton. In April, the price of DMF was mainly downward, down 8.63% compared with the beginning of April and 9.86% compared with the same period last month. At present, the mainstream price is 13200 yuan / ton. The overall trend is weak and volatile, with a narrow upward trend.

The price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. fell by 1270.00 tons in the same period last week, and the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. was the weakest in the same period. Compared with the start-up price of March / April, the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. fell by 1270.00 tons in the same period. At present, the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. was the weakest in the market. Compared with the beginning of December, the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. fell by 1270.00 tons in the same period, and the price of DMF of the downstream, Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. was 12000 yuan / ton, guanjiuzhou (Shandong) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was 14000 yuan / ton, Shandong Shengxu Energy Co., Ltd. was 13800 yuan / ton, Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. was 12800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. was 12000 yuan / ton, and upstream methyl alcohol. As of April 8, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3022 yuan / ton, up 26.46% year-on-year. The price of crude oil is weak, the price of coal continues to decline, the supply is sufficient, the traditional demand is weak, the demand for olefins is good, the price in the main production areas in the short term is expected to be lowered, and the price in the consumer market is lower.

From mid April to April 15, the DMF market was weak and the price fell. Compared with the same period last week, the price fell by 6.25%. At present, the mainstream price range is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and the negotiation focus is weak. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment is slow, the inventory is general, the operating rate is normal, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The manufacturer has successively reduced the price. The latest quotation of the manufacturer is 11700 yuan / ton of Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd, Jinan Qichen Chemical Co., Ltd. was 11700 yuan / ton, Liaocheng Jinrui New Material Co., Ltd. 11700 yuan / ton, Jinan yingsen Chemical Co., Ltd. 11700 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. 11800 yuan / ton, upstream methanol. As of April 14, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2795 yuan / ton, up 17.93% year-on-year. Factors such as higher crude oil, strong coal prices and spring maintenance supported the mentality of the industry, and the transaction atmosphere in the domestic methanol market improved.

From late April to April 22, the domestic DMF price was relatively strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price increased by 5.32%. At present, the mainstream price range is 13200-13500 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is fair, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs procurement, and the logistics is smooth. The latest quotation of the manufacturer: Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 13500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. 13200 yuan / ton, Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. 13500 yuan / ton, Shandong Haideng New Material Co., Ltd. 13000 yuan / ton, Liaocheng Jinrui New Material Co., Ltd. 11800 yuan / ton, upstream methanol. As of April 20, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2837 yuan / ton, up 0.98% from the previous trading day and 16.29% year-on-year. The production cost of methanol is weakened, the supply in the mainland is abundant, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by consolidation.

Chemical commodity index: on April 25, the chemical index was 1172 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 16.29% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 95.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that: it is expected that the DMF market will operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term, and the price will rise slightly. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices)

The lead market (4.15-4.22) fluctuated upward this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15375 yuan / ton last weekend and 15655 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.82% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 16th week of 2022 (4.18-4.22), there are 11 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, and the top three commodities are dysprosium ferroalloy (2.77%), dysprosium oxide (2.57%) and nickel (2.54%). A total of 9 commodities fell month on month, and the top 3 products were magnesium (- 3.98%), silver (- 3.89%) and electrolytic manganese (- 2.22%). Both rose or fell by 0.07% this week.

Lead futures market on April 22, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 15695 yuan / ton+ 205., 86286 tons

London lead, USD 2387 / T- 61., 39725 tons

In terms of futures market, the trend of Lun lead shock this week, with the main shock range of US $2390-2488 / ton. After the market recovered on Tuesday, it fell for two consecutive days. This week, the main contract of Shanghai lead changed months, and the overall trend fluctuated upward, with a weekly rise of 1.85%, which was mainly boosted by national policies. Shanghai lead was mainly boosted by the overall environment. The domestic inventory fell significantly during the week, which boosted the lead price again.

The futures trend is divided, with domestic strength and LME weakness. The spot market mainly follows the trend of Shanghai lead, and this week is also a shock upward trend. With the gradual recovery of domestic transportation, the market mentality was boosted. However, as the market entered the off-season in April, the demand for storage batteries began to decline, and the burden of enterprises was reduced more. The downstream storage battery enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Affected by this, the overall domestic market trading was light and the overall transaction was weak.

In the aftermarket, the business community believes that the downstream gradually enters the off-season, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, focusing on the impact of the futures market.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level this week, and the quotation is 5133.33 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 3500 yuan / ton. On April 23, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 135.09, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 39.69% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is about 3500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The price of potassium chloride this weekend was 5000 yuan / ton, compared with that of Anhui Badou last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5100 yuan / ton. The price of 60% Dahong granules in the port has been raised by about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with a quotation of 9066.67 yuan / ton, up 35.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a high level this week, and the quotation was 7050.00 yuan / ton, up 61.14% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride is general.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. As spring ploughing approaches the end, agricultural demand weakens and traders generally take goods. In terms of industry, the downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidated at a high level, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

This week (April 11-15), domestic ethyl acetate reversed the previous upward trend and the price fell back. According to the statistics of business agency, the decline this week was 3.06%, mainly due to the lower price of acetic acid raw materials, the main factories in Shandong stopped bidding and changed to retail, affecting the market mentality and the weak downstream demand. At the weekend, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the domestic acetic acid market fell this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 2.11%, and the overall transaction was average. Due to the impact of public health events, the transportation in some areas is not smooth, especially in the main production areas of central China, Shandong and East China. This week, the large plants in Henan were shut down for maintenance and the main factories in Shandong were started with reduced load. On the one hand, the downstream demand was low, on the other hand, the transportation problem and higher freight costs led to the high inventory of manufacturers and the natural downward pressure on manufacturers’ prices.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the decline of acetic acid is more obvious, the price performance is weak, and the curve is close, indicating that the profits of downstream ethyl acetate enterprises are still improving.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable this week, and the main large factories in Shandong maintained normal operation. This week, manufacturers generally reduced the ex factory price by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the factory is still retail, and there is no large volume of transactions. Some manufacturers in South China have reduced their production load. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is obvious, mainly reducing prices and arranging inventory, but the market expectation has weakened. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

On the demand side, dealers and downstream factories have weak purchase intention this week, mainly with small orders and low-end prices. Due to the general impact of national public health events, the transportation is limited, the freight is higher than that in the previous period, and the circulation of goods is insufficient, which further limits the demand for ethyl acetate.

In the future, the analysts of ethyl acetate of business society believe that the current cost of ethyl acetate is declining, the supply and demand are weak, and the operating rate of ethyl acetate manufacturers remains stable. However, it does not rule out the reduction of load production due to sluggish transactions and poor profits in the later stage, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the later stage, but considering the weakness of cost, the price is difficult to improve too much.

This week, the lead market (4.8-4.15) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15415 yuan / ton last weekend and 15375 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.26% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 15th week of 2022 (4.11-4.15), there are seven kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (10.71%), zinc (3.15%) and silver (2.77%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 5 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were dysprosium (- 11.07%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.39%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.78%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.47%.

Lead futures market on April 15, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 15490 yuan / ton+ 50., 95914 tons

London lead, US $2448 / ton+ 38., 39825 tons

In terms of futures market: Lun lead is dominated by the shock trend this week, and the overall operation range is US $2365-2450 / ton. At the beginning of the week, the metal market was generally under pressure and the overall performance was poor. The price of Lun lead was dragged down, and then the fundamental crude oil rose again, boosting the market mentality, and Lun lead hit the bottom and rebounded. Shanghai lead fluctuated in the range of 15580-15305 yuan / ton. The inventory rebounded this week, but the overall wait-and-see mood was heavy and the trend was weak. The cumulative decline in the week was 0.1%.

Basically, at present, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises has increased slightly. In terms of recycled lead, due to the limited transportation, the cross provincial transportation has a certain impact, and the overall operating rate is limited. In terms of downstream demand, with the market entering the off-season in April, the demand for storage batteries began to decline, and there were many cases of enterprise burden reduction. Downstream storage battery enterprises mainly purchased on demand, coupled with limited transportation, the demand was suspended.

In the aftermarket, the business community believes that the downstream gradually enters the off-season, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, focusing on the impact of the futures market.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of the morning of April 19, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10300.00 yuan / ton, down 8.31% compared with the price on Tuesday (April 12), 14.17% compared with the price on March 19, and up 0.98% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of melamine fell. Recently, the price of raw material urea has been rising steadily, and the cost side support has risen. Last week, the operating rate of melamine was high, but the demand side performance was weak, the manufacturers’ shipment was not smooth, the market trading atmosphere was light, and the focus of market negotiation was under pressure. This week, the cost support was gradually strengthened, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the price was mainly stable after falling.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly on April 18, up 1 yuan / ton or 0.03% compared with the price on April 15, and up 39.07% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of upstream urea is relatively strong, and the cost pressure is large. In addition, the maintenance expectation of some devices has a certain support for the market, but the demand follow-up is still insufficient. The market is expected to wait and see. It is expected that the melamine market may be stable and stable in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of April 17, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6320.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 1.10% from 6390.00 yuan / ton on April 11.

On April 17, the fuel oil commodity index was 128.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.32% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 177.78% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rise of international crude oil prices and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of April 17, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 6300 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 6400 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose, and the market heard that the EU might draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine surfaced again, and the oil price was strongly supported. The escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of oil prices. Under the background of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, as the world’s second largest oil exporter, has been expected to be interrupted due to Western sanctions, and the price trend of crude oil market has risen.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of April 13, Singapore’s fuel inventory fell by 845000 barrels to a three-month low of 19591000 barrels; Singapore’s medium distillate stocks rose 588000 barrels to a five week high of 7.615 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 1.573 million barrels to a four month low of 11.076 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price is rising, the cost of ship fuel market is high, affected by the epidemic, the transportation of ship fuel market is blocked, the market demand is low, the downstream goods are prepared carefully, the demand is just needed, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, the market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 6300 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 6400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week (4.11-15), the price of domestic adipic acid continued to decline, and adipic acid in East China fell by 0.97% this week. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid is 12200-12500 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the prices of upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell. In addition, the supply increased compared with the previous period, while the terminal demand was still cautious and the transaction was not ideal, resulting in the continuous weak downward trend of adipic acid.

In terms of market supply, this week, the operating rate of adipic acid decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and is currently maintained at 60%. The listing prices of some large manufacturers have been reduced, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is obvious, and the price reduction is mainly for inventory arrangement. In terms of commencement, several sets of devices have been overhauled. Tianli, Zhonghao and Shandong Haili have maintained 80% load reduction for commencement. Zhonghao has been temporarily inspected within a week and has now resumed operation. Jiangsu Haili and Taihua units are still shut down, and Huafeng unit takes turns to conduct temporary inspection and remove scars. Supply narrowed slightly this week, but the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory in the early stage is heavy, which is still not a favorable stimulus to prices.

Adipic acid industry chain trend

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain has declined as a whole this week. The upstream product cyclohexanone and pure benzene have declined significantly, which is in line with the adipic acid market. In addition, the downstream PA66 has continued to fall, and the terminal remains at a weak level.

Market trend of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid

The price of pure benzene fell this cycle. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of pure benzene was 2.33%. Mainly due to the price reduction of Sinopec. And the downstream buying intention is light, and the transaction is concentrated in the low end. In addition, due to the adverse impact of the continuous decline of styrene, it is expected that the demand support for pure benzene will collapse in the later stage, which will affect the mentality of the industry. Although there are large-scale plant maintenance in Shandong, the market still maintains a loose pattern, dominated by weak downside.

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

This week, cyclohexanone also continued the downward trend of last week. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of cyclohexanone was 0.59%, narrowing the decline. The domestic cyclohexanone market continued to be weak this week. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost pressure does not decrease. The downstream chemical fiber market was stable and upward. Sinopec caprolactam was listed and increased by 200 yuan / ton, but the purchase enthusiasm was general. In addition, the transportation was limited, the delivery of cyclohexanone was blocked, some enterprises stopped to reduce production, the overall supply and demand of cyclohexanone was weak, and the market was in a stalemate and consolidation. The weak supply and demand led to the continuous decline of cyclohexanone market and continued to put pressure on downstream adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream of adipic acid remains weak. The terminal demand is affected by public health events, the operating rate decreases slightly, and the road transportation is blocked, which makes the market atmosphere more light. The decline of PA66 downstream of adipic acid increased this week. According to the data of business society, the weekly decline was 5.93%. Therefore, in terms of supply, the profit of PA66 enterprise is suppressed to a certain extent. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. The slowdown in downstream demand is the fundamental reason for the continued weakness of adipic acid prices.

In the later stage, the business society believes that the main reason restricting the adipic acid market is the dual pressure of weak downstream demand and high social inventory. Public health events have brought uncertainty to the market and double pressure on demand and transportation. But at the same time, the supply side is also good, and the operating rate continues to decline, which is conducive to reducing the supply pressure in the later stage. Overall, adipic acid may still maintain a weak market, but it may stop falling in the near future.

From April 8 to April 14, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable. The price was 83750 yuan / ton last weekend and 83750 yuan / ton this weekend, flat.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise after the Spring Festival, and the rise trend stabilized in the later stage, mainly maintaining a temporary stability in the past two weeks.

The antimony ingot market continued to maintain a temporary stable trend this week. According to the data shown in the k-column chart of commodity prices above, it can be found that the price of antimony ingots has been stable for three consecutive weeks. After the price entered a stable trend, the overall market was also relatively stable. The downstream continued to maintain the on-demand procurement plan, and the market trading was slightly stable. There is no significant improvement in market supply and demand. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of antimony ingots will remain high in the future. The future will focus on the impact of antimony pollution prevention and control in Zijiang River Basin on local antimony ingot production.

Relevant information:

On April 4, Zeng Chaoqun, deputy secretary of Loudi municipal Party committee and mayor, stressed at the first meeting of the ecological and environmental protection leading group of Zijiang River basin that we should deal with the “three pairs of relations” of “addressing symptoms and root causes”, “decision-making and implementation” and “vertical and horizontal” with systematic thinking, comprehensively promote the ecological and environmental protection of Zijiang River Basin, and ensure the safety of people’s drinking water and the ecological security of Zijiang River Basin. At the meeting, Loudi Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development and Loudi Municipal Bureau of ecological environment respectively reported on the construction of Xinhua No. 2 water plant, the upward movement of water intake and the prevention and control of antimony pollution in Zijiang River Basin; Lengshuijiang City and Xinhua County reported the relevant work.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 11, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12800.00 yuan / ton, and the price decreased slightly. Compared with the same period last week, the price decreased by 12.3%, or about 1500 yuan / ton. In the short term, DMF is dominated by weak operation.

The DMF market was weak and the price fell by 12.3% compared with the same period last week. The focus of negotiation was weak. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment was slow, the inventory was general, the operating rate was normal, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The manufacturer successively reduced the price. The latest quotation of the manufacturer: Jinan pulaihua Chemical Co., Ltd. 12700 yuan / ton, Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 12000 yuan / ton, Guanjiuzhou (Shandong) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 14000 yuan / ton, Shandong Shengxu Energy Co., Ltd. is 13800 yuan / ton, Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12800 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. is 12000 yuan / ton.

Upstream methanol, as of April 8, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3022 yuan / ton, up 26.46% year-on-year. The price of crude oil is weak, the price of coal continues to decline, the supply is sufficient, the traditional demand is weak, the demand for olefins is good, the price in the main production areas in the short term is expected to be lowered, and the price in the consumer market is lower.

Chemical commodity index: on April 10, the chemical index was 1184 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 15.43% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 97.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, DMF is dominated by weak operation. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of April 11, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 7266.67 yuan / ton, up 2.35% from last Wednesday (April 6), 43.42% from March 11, and 68.99% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid has risen. Recently, the main raw material methanol has been operating at a high level, and the cost pressure still exists. A large factory at the supply end has been overhauled, and the market supply has shrunk. The main downstream just needs to follow up. The export market support is strong, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is positive, there is a certain impact on the transportation of some regions, and the formic acid market is in line.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 1230.00 on April 8, an increase of 9.43% compared with April 1 (1124.00); Upstream liquid ammonia, on April 11, Shandong liquid ammonia market rose steadily; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on April 11; For upstream methanol, on April 8, the reference price of methanol was 3022.50, a decrease of 1.55% compared with April 1 (3070.00).

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of methanol, the main raw material, has weakened, the cost support is limited, the export orders have increased, and the support of supply and demand is still strong. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate strongly in the short term.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of the sample enterprises of the business community was 9275.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of the sample enterprises was 9400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.35%. The price increased by 3.49% over the same period last year.

cement

The market price of styrene fluctuated and rose this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of styrene fluctuated recently, and the price increased slightly this week. Recently, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated and rose. Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hebei shengteng styrene units unexpectedly stopped for short-term maintenance, which superimposed the decline of port inventory. Out of concern about the market supply, the spot market of styrene rose.

In terms of raw materials, the international oil price fell, the pure benzene market negotiation was light, the logistics in Shandong was blocked due to the impact of public health events, the shipment of individual enterprises was poor, and the price difference between regions was widened. The overall atmosphere of pure benzene Market in Shandong is poor, with high-end prices falling and the price difference narrowing. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene stabilized at 8600 yuan / ton.

Downstream, the three downstream styrene rose or fell this week. The market price of PS was relatively stable this week, and the average price was 10616.67 yuan / ton by the end of the week.

At present, the EPS price fluctuates, the crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and the impact of public health events is still obvious. However, the local logistics and transportation restrictions have been improved. In addition, the cost support has been strengthened, and some terminal merchants have entered the market to replenish goods appropriately, and the overall transaction has improved. As of April 7, Jiangsu sample enterprises had 11100 yuan / ton of ordinary materials, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.91%, and 12000 yuan / ton of barrier fuel, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.84%.

At the beginning of April, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose, and the spot prices of various brands increased by a narrow margin. The operating rate of ABS enterprises decreased slightly, and the overall supply decreased. The mentality of manufacturers has been strengthened and the ex factory price has been adjusted. In addition, the demand of the main downstream household appliance industry gradually increased in April, and the demand for ABS in the field improved. China’s demand for health and logistics has rebounded recently, but some areas have been affected by recent health events. There has been no substantial progress in the situation between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe. There are great differences in the remote upstream crude oil market, but the price is still high.

Recently, the international crude oil has rebounded, the downstream demand may recover, the current inventory level and market supply are OK, and styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was 40.67 yuan / kg, with no rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the purchase of vitamin C in the domestic market improved slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of feed grade is 35-38 yuan / kg, and the mainstream price of feed grade is 38-40 yuan / kg. The factory continues to stop reporting, and the actual situation is a single discussion. The downstream rigid demand is the main thing, and the price negotiation is the main thing.

The price of corn is expected to rise moderately in the upper half of April, while the price of corn in the main production area will rise moderately in the upper half of April, and the price of corn in the main production area will rise again in the lower half of April.

The price of vitamin a rose slightly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A was 231 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 234 yuan / kg at the weekend. The European market quoted 63-68 euros / kg. At the end of April, foreign vitamin factories had plans to stop production, and the award-winning boosted the domestic VA market.

The price of vitamin E was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of feed grade vitamin E was stable at 92 yuan / kg without rise or fall. The European market quotation this week is 9.9-11.5 euros / kg, and the foreign quotation is upward. Thanks to the news of price increase at home and abroad, the price of domestic vitamin E is strong and upward.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that: on the whole, the overall vitamin market is stable and small this week. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of April 6, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8416 yuan / ton. Compared with April 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8433 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 17 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business society that in April, on the eve of the Qingming Festival, the trading atmosphere of domestic n-propanol in the field was cold, the downstream goods preparation performance before the festival was general, and the inventory of domestic n-propanol in the field accumulated. On the 2nd, the suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong adjusted the shipping price of n-propanol according to their own inventory, driving the overall market price of n-propanol in Shandong down slightly, with a reduction range of about 100-200 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7800-8000 yuan / ton. During the Qingming holiday, supported by the strong trend of raw materials, the domestic n-propanol market picked up slightly on the 4th and 5th, and the market price of n-propanol in Shandong rose to around 7850-8000 yuan / ton. After returning from the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, on the 6th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong continued to rise slightly, with a rise range of around 50-100 yuan / ton. The market price of n-propanol is around 7900-8100 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation is around 8500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. There are also differences in each region, mainly through actual negotiation, Wait and see the price change and shipment of raw materials in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, after the Qingming Festival, the external ethylene market generally rose. On April 5, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1396-1406 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1426-1436 / ton. European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the 5th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1994-2004 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1544-1553 / ton. Ethylene analysts at the chemical branch of business agency believe that the international crude oil futures market fell. On the macro level, due to the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the rise of the US dollar affected the valuation of oil prices. On the demand side, market participants expressed concern about the slowdown in demand caused by public health events, and oil prices were under pressure. But at the same time, the supply side was subject to Western sanctions against Russia, resulting in damage to output, and supply concerns limited the decline in oil prices. Therefore, the data analysts of the business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall below next.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is mainly just demand procurement, and the support given by the supply side is acceptable. The n-propanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (April 6): 14390 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of April 9, the domestic price of cis-polybutadiene rubber was 14390 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.49% over the previous day; Domestic enterprises Haopu and Xinjiang Lande units shut down, Zhenhua, Daqing and other Shunding units reduce the load, Jinzhou Petrochemical also has a maintenance plan in the near future, the supply of Shunding rubber is tight, and the expected shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical accident promotes the bullish atmosphere. According to the business agency, as of April 6, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding in PetroChina East China sales company branch was 14400 yuan / ton. Qilu, Daqing, Lande, Qixiang and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China reported 14200 ~ 15200 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of raw butadiene continues to remain high and stable, with strong cost support.

Future forecast: on the one hand, although the price and cost of raw butadiene support; On the other hand, the supply side of some enterprises is tightening due to the overhaul or planned overhaul of CIS polybutadiene devices. It is expected that the CIS polybutadiene rubber market will continue to rise in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of diethylene glycol rose this month. On March 1, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 4836 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5090 yuan / ton. The price of diethylene glycol rose by 5.24% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The diethylene glycol market fluctuated upward this month. In early March, the price trend of diethylene glycol fluctuated and rose. The military situation in Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, and the political situation is tense. International oil prices began to fall after rising sharply. The operating rate of UPR at the downstream of diethylene glycol is about 27%. In mid March, the price of diethylene glycol first fell and then rose. The tight military situation in Russia and Ukraine has an impact on the supply of diethylene glycol. International oil prices first fell sharply and then rebounded and rose. The operating rate of UPR in the downstream of diethylene glycol is about 27%. In late March, Russia Ukraine negotiations released positive signals, and the trend of diethylene glycol rose. The price of diethylene glycol fluctuates with the crude oil market. The operating rate of UPR in the upper and lower reaches increased by 23% in the three months to October. The total mainstream inventory of diethylene glycol was 58000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons month on month. The domestic market quotation in East China is 5050-5080 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are under way, and the situation has eased slightly. The trend of international crude oil is dominant, and the field needs to be operated with caution. The downstream demand for diethylene glycol is insufficient and the confidence in the industry is insufficient. Diethylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the market price of diethylene glycol will rise slightly in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of crude oil.

Zinc prices rose in March

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market recovered in March, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose. As of March 31, the price of zinc was 26722 yuan / ton, up 6.45% from 25102 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of March, the price of zinc fluctuated and adjusted significantly, and the price of zinc fluctuated and rose in the middle and late ten days. Overall, the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak, and the zinc price fluctuates and rises.

Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai Futures Market

Time, Futures inventory ., Increase or decrease

March 1, one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty .,- six hundred and twenty-six

March 2, 106320., 0

March 3rd ., 109258., two thousand nine hundred and thirty-eight

March 4, one hundred and ten thousand nine hundred and forty-eight ., one thousand six hundred and ninety

March 7, one hundred and fourteen thousand six hundred and fifty-one ., three thousand seven hundred and three

March 8, one hundred and seventeen thousand six hundred and sixty-six ., three thousand and fifteen

March 9, one hundred and seventeen thousand nine hundred and forty-two ., two hundred and seventy-six

March 10th ., 118935., nine hundred and ninety-three

March 11, one hundred and twenty-one thousand eight hundred and ninety-five ., two thousand nine hundred and sixty

March 14, one hundred and twenty-five thousand five hundred and six ., three thousand six hundred and eleven

March 15th ., 130267., four thousand seven hundred and sixty-one

March 16, 131221., nine hundred and fifty-four

March 17, 130393., – eight hundred and twenty-eight

March 18, one hundred and thirty thousand two hundred and forty-four .,- one hundred and forty-nine

March 21, one hundred and twenty-nine thousand three hundred and forty-two .,- nine hundred and two

March 22, one hundred and twenty-eight thousand and twelve .,- one thousand three hundred and thirty

March 23, 126728., – one thousand two hundred and eighty-four

March 24, 125952., – seven hundred and seventy-six

March 25th ., 125723., – two hundred and twenty-nine

March 28, one hundred and twenty-five thousand five hundred and twenty-three .,- two hundred

March 29, one hundred and twenty-five thousand two hundred and sixty-nine .,- two hundred and fifty-four

March 30, one hundred and twenty-five thousand one hundred and sixty-nine .,- one hundred

March 31, one hundred and twenty-four thousand four hundred and eighty-five ,.- six hundred and eighty-four

According to the zinc ingot inventory data sheet of Shanghai futures market, it can be seen that the rise of zinc inventory in March slowed down. Since March 17, the zinc ingot futures inventory in Shanghai futures market has continued to decline. As of March 31, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market has decreased, the supply of zinc in Shanghai has decreased, the downward pressure of zinc price has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect the supply of zinc in the city

Since the end of February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has continued to ferment, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared, and the cost of zinc smelting has risen, affecting the supply of zinc market. The future supply of zinc market is expected to decrease, and the rising power of zinc market has increased. Subsequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the high price of natural gas in Europe fell, and the cost of zinc smelting decreased. However, the cost of zinc smelting is still high, the supply of zinc market is expected to decrease, and the rising power of zinc market still exists.

Domestic epidemic hit zinc City

The epidemic has spread again in China. The capricious epidemic has destabilized the metal market, resulting in insufficient supply of raw materials and blocked logistics transportation, which continues to interfere with the normal operation of the supply chain, seriously affecting the production of local enterprises. The construction of downstream enterprises in zinc city has decreased, and the overall demand of zinc city is weak.

The epidemic affects domestic production and operation

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.5% in March, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. The emergence of aggregated public health events in many places in China and the significant increase of international geopolitical instability have affected the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises to a certain extent. In March, the manufacturing purchasing manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index all fell below the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of China’s economy fell back. The decline of the overall economic level has affected the supply and demand of zinc market, and the overall zinc market has weakened. With the epidemic under control, the suppressed production and demand will gradually recover, and the market is expected to pick up. Zinc market demand is expected to pick up in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in early March, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, zinc prices soared and plummeted; Since the middle of the year, with the relative easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high zinc price has dropped. Since the middle and late days, but with the recurrence of the domestic epidemic, the supply and demand of zinc price are weak, the overall supply is in short supply, and the zinc price fluctuates and rises. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc in the future market is expected to decrease, the demand of zinc in the future market recovers slowly, the bad situation in zinc market weakens and the good situation increases, and the zinc price fluctuates and rises in the future market.

In March, the domestic Shunding market rose slightly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 31, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 14200 yuan / ton, up 3.80% from 13680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The price of raw butadiene rose sharply, with strong cost support. In addition, partial load reduction and parking of cis-polybutadiene rubber enterprises have tightened the supply side, which has a beneficial impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber and promoted the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber upward; However, the increase of downstream demand is not obvious, and the upward range of Shunding is restricted to some extent.

In March, the raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was supported by CIS polybutadiene rubber. Butadiene plants abroad have entered the maintenance season, and the tight market supply continues to push butadiene to a high level. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 10708 yuan / ton, up 28.02% from 8365 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market was weak and volatile in March. As of March 31, the price was 13190 yuan / ton, up 1.00% from 13060 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; During the month, the high point was 13480 yuan / ton and the low point was 12780 yuan / ton.

The operating rate of downstream tires is differentiated, and the operation of semi steel tires has increased significantly, but the operation of all steel tires has been depressed. It is understood that the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire production line closed at 72.2%, while the operating rate of all steel tire production line closed at 56.6%. In addition, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, 35.05 million new pneumatic rubber tires were exported in February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%; From January to February 2022, 90.37 million new pneumatic rubber tires were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the easing of supply pressure and the sharp rise of cost support cis-polybutadiene rubber, but the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and consolidate at a high level in the later stage.