Magnesium market trend in 2020

The price of pickling ingot is mainly in the range of 16000-15600 tons in December 2020, and the overall price of pickling ingot is not stable.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 15600-15900 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 15800-16000 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 15900-16000 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 15700-15800 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

This round of rising market is based on two logical lines.

In the early stage of the rebound, the external single centralized mining, the increase of inquiry volume, combined with the price differentiation of magnesium and aluminum, the market bottomed out and the rebound expectation was strengthened; in addition, the raw material price rose, and the cost side bonus, the industry saved itself, and the willingness of mainstream manufacturers to raise prices increased significantly.

At present, due to weather factors, the transportation sector is affected, the market trading volume is average, some traders close down in advance, and the price is mainly weak and stable.

Future forecast

Near the end of the month, some magnesium ingot manufacturers’ demand for return funds is on the rise. In addition, the early hoarders have higher willingness to ship at the current price, and the long short game is intensified. It is expected that the probability of stable operation will increase in the near future, and the oscillation range is 15500-15800 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PC market as a whole will continue to rise in 2020. In the first half of 2020, as raw materials for helmets and masks, the price of PC has gone up by leaps and bounds. In June, the one-day increase exceeded 500 yuan, and the focus of negotiation has been rising. PC enterprises have ushered in a small peak, In the second half of 2020, the PC market has been steadily rising, with big stability and small movement. The demand is purchased on demand, and the focus of negotiation is stable. In December, the PC market is weak and the price has declined. However, due to the excessive increase in the early stage, the price increase from February 2020 to December 2020 is still as high as 43.36%, and from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the price increase is nearly 6000 yuan / ton.

Helmets become a new favorite in the first half of 2020

In the first half of 2020, according to the Ministry of public security, the “one helmet one belt” security guard operation will be carried out nationwide from June 1, 2020. The traffic control department of public security will strengthen the law enforcement and management, and check and correct the behaviors of motorcycle and electric bicycle riders not wearing safety helmets and car drivers not using safety belts according to law, The market of riding safety helmets will usher in growth. As the raw material for the production of helmet front baffle, the price of PC will rise by 200-600 yuan / ton. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The PC market will undoubtedly usher in a small peak of development. In a 500g helmet, the consumption of PC is between 100-150g. According to the demand of 100 million helmets, the total consumption of PC will reach 15000 In 2020, the domestic PC production is expected to exceed 1.5 million tons, far exceeding the PC demand driven by helmet baffle.

From January to April in 2020, the domestic PC market is mainly stable, with little price change, normal shipment of manufacturers, normal operation of devices, stable negotiation atmosphere, just need to purchase and contract customers.

In May and June of 2020, the PC market has a strong rising trend, with high price, low price and limited trading volume. At present, the PC market has a smooth delivery without obvious pressure, and the supply side is sufficient. Recently, the products of the industrial chain are showing an upward trend. Driven by the cost side, the PC market price will further rise, showing an upward trend as a whole.

The PC market will rise steadily in the second half of 2020

In July 2020, the domestic PC market is weak and stable, with limited negotiation space and insufficient follow-up of downstream demand. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for businesses. The market is stable, with BPA as raw material rebounding sharply. The cost side may form a certain support for the PC market, the focus of transaction will rise, the demand for raw materials will increase, and traders will be reluctant to sell. The situation will be weak and stable in July.

In August 2020, the domestic PC market is stable, with cautious trading, on-demand procurement, high operation of upstream raw materials, certain cost support, general transaction atmosphere and stable overall market.

In September 2020, the domestic PC market is running at a high level, and the market is bullish. The business quotation is firm, and the price rises sharply. Compared with the same period of last month, the price rises by 6.92%, showing a broad upward trend. The major enterprises are bullish and reluctant to sell.

In October 2020, the domestic PC market will operate stably, with normal manufacturers’ shipment and normal device operation, stable negotiation atmosphere, active merchants’ shipment, smooth logistics and no pressure on inventory. Most of them are small orders and just need to purchase. The overall PC atmosphere is good, which will remain stable in the short term and digest the previous increase.

In November, the domestic PC market price continued to rise, the goods tight state was obvious, the transaction atmosphere was cautious, the price continued to rise, the PC raw material price went up, the cost support was strong, the traders had a good mentality, the shipment was smooth, the PC Inventory was low, and the price was likely to continue to rise

In December, the domestic PC operating rate has declined, and the equipment maintenance of some enterprises has shown a weak downward trend in December. Due to the excessive increase in the early stage and the suppression of downstream procurement demand, the current trading atmosphere is still flat, and the willingness to prepare goods near the Spring Festival is not obvious, and the trading atmosphere is in a downturn.

PC analysts of business news agency believe that: near the 2021 Spring Festival, PC traders are not willing to prepare goods, and the current market situation is weak and the atmosphere is confused.

1、 Price trend

At the beginning of 2020, the price of steam coal maintained stable operation, and then the price was in a weak downward state from the beginning of February to the end of April. From the middle of May, the price began to rebound to the first ten days of July, and the price fluctuated. From the middle of July to the end of August, the price fell again, and from the beginning of September, the price of steam coal began to soar. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of steam coal in early 2020 was 560.25 yuan / ton, and as of December 28, the average market price of steam coal was about 783.75 yuan / ton, with an overall price increase of 39.89%. Careful observation is not difficult to find that the overall trend presents a slightly oblique “W” trend.

According to another monitoring data of the business community, as of November 2020, the price is in an upward trend in seven months and a downward trend in four months, with more room for rise than for fall.

2、 Factor analysis

First quarter: in January, the price of steam coal was around 562 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable. Due to the small number of coal pallets and the Spring Festival effect, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat and the market continues to be weak. Due to the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is mainly to digest inventory. According to the business news agency, as of January 19, 2020, the six major coastal power plants have an inventory of 14.8965 million tons, a daily consumption of 62.65 million tons, and 23.78 days of usable days. It is more difficult for coal mine workers to return to work in February than before. The shortage of coal supply in producing areas led to a small rise in the price of steam coal. In March, with the resumption of coal enterprises and the gradual lifting of road transport restrictions, the overall supply tension has been significantly eased. As of March 4, Shanxi coal province announced that 569 coal mines will resume production, with a production capacity of 927 million tons per year, with a recovery rate of 92.97%. There are more than 60 coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province. There are 166 coal mines in Ordos area, with a total capacity of 558 million tons. After one month’s resumption of production, the shortage of coal supply has been significantly alleviated. The resumption of production and supply of coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia continue to improve, but the downstream terminal coal consumption is mainly rigid demand, and the resumption of work of downstream enterprises is slower than the release of upstream production capacity. At present, most of the coal mines are generally sold, and the price of coal from the origin is falling.

In the second quarter, in early April, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of steam coal was around 487.25 yuan / ton, and the price of steam coal continued to decline recently. In terms of origin, the demand is general. In order to prevent the overstock of coal mine inventory, some coal mines set production by sales. The output decreased slightly, and the coal price decreased by 10-20 yuan. There are few coal pallets, so the atmosphere of market negotiation is flat, and the market continues to be weak. Steam coal prices were strong in mid and early May. Overall, under the background of production reduction in the production area, overhaul of Daqin line, sharp decline in port inventory, and increasingly stringent import restrictions, daily coal consumption of coastal power plants soared. As of May 22, Qinhuangdao Port inventory was 3.89 million tons, down 475000 tons on a week-on-week basis; as of May 22, in addition, import restrictions became more stringent. From January to April, the coal import volume is close to 130 million tons. If calculated according to the rumored import quota of 250 million tons in the market at the beginning of the year, the remaining import quota is less than 50%, the import quota of some ports has been exhausted, and the import restrictions are becoming stricter. The price of steam coal ushered in a turning point since June 9. On June 17, the average port price of steam coal remained at 570 yuan / ton, up 2.75% from 554.75 yuan / ton on June 1. After a round of decline in March and April due to the “public health incident”, the price of steam coal rose in May. After May Day, the highway charges were resumed, the downstream users of coal purchased more on demand, and the delivery in the pit market was poor, so the price was under pressure. The market demand of downstream power plants rebounded slightly, driving the price of steam coal up slightly.

In the third quarter, the price of steam coal fell in July, the precipitation in southern China increased sharply, and the hydropower generation was seriously affected. The purchase of coal from downstream power plants fell slightly, and the demand dropped slightly. At the same time, under rainy weather, the temperature was low, the residents’ demand for electricity could not be fully released, and the daily consumption increased in general. In August, the price of steam coal was temporarily stable. Now, the supply of production area is relatively tight, and the daily consumption of downstream power plants is increasing due to weather. However, the demand of power plants for steam coal is mainly based on the demand of Changxie coal price inventory. Datong Qinhuangdao line resumed traffic, the shipment volume decreased compared with the previous tourism, the inventory of Beigang remained at medium high level, the seller’s willingness to support the price remained, the terminal demand was general, and the transaction situation was general. Most coal mining and chemical industry in Shaanxi had a slight rise in price, while the price of coal mining and chemical industry was stable in September. Compared with Shaanxi, the number of coal price adjustment is relatively small. The price of a small number of coal mines has increased by about 5-10 yuan, while the price of other coal mines is temporarily stable. With the approaching of the holiday, the inspection of the main coal producing areas has been upgraded, coupled with the restriction of coal management ticket, the coal supply tends to be tight.

In the fourth quarter, the overall price of steam coal went up. The supply and demand of the main producing areas are still tight, and the coal pit operation rate has reached a relatively high point under the support of supply policy. Affected by recent safety accidents, environmental protection and other multiple factors, the safety production signal was enhanced at the end of the year, and the amount of coal mining was affected to a certain extent. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places have issued environmental protection production limit notices, resulting in a sharp drop in supply. At present, the mainstream open storage price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 690-710 yuan / ton. The temperature in coastal areas dropped, and the demand for heating for civilian use rose seasonally. With the decrease of temperature and the rise of daily consumption, the demand of downstream terminal transportation is also strong. The coastal power plant purchase terminal demand has been released. The inventory of Beigang is low and the shortage of goods still exists. In view of the soaring spot price and the enhancement of macro-control expectation, the coastal power plants are mainly on the lookout, and the procurement is relatively rational. In addition, the rapid economic recovery has increased the coal demand of coal consuming enterprises. In the past two months, the purchasing of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries has continued, driving the demand for coal to increase greatly.

In addition, from the comparison above, it can be seen that the price of steam coal has risen to the highest level in three years from 2018 to 2020.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the main coal producing areas are still relatively tight. Towards the end of the year, the environmental protection policy is more stringent. Some coal dealers reflect that there will still be the phenomenon of cars and other coal. Second, in terms of downstream power plants, this winter, affected by the extremely cold weather of “La Nina”, the temperature in North and Northeast China dropped rapidly, driving the increase of coal demand. Moreover, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir remain at a low level, the hydropower output weakens, and the thermal power generation continues to rise. Third, the amount of imported coal decreased. In November this year, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, a decrease of 9.11 million tons or 43.84% compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year. Due to the stop of loading and unloading of Australian coal, the quota of imported coal for some users is close to zero, and due to “public incidents”, the management of ports has been strengthened. 4. Affected by the domestic economic recovery, the purchasing of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries has continued, driving the demand for coal to increase greatly. Fifth, under the influence of domestic policies, in order to support the domestic economy, the state has been more strict in the control of imported coal. On the whole, the price of steam coal still has a strong upward momentum in the short term. Specifically, the demand of downstream market.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On December 21, the price was US $999.50/ton, and on December 25, the average price of ethylene was US $1020.50/ton, up 2.10%. The current price has risen 20.95% month on month, and the current price has risen 33.44% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. Asian ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 24th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $990-1000 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $925-935 / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 24th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1058-1073 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1076-1088 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose to $721-733 per ton as of the 24th. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia has shown a rising trend. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market is good, the market trading atmosphere is positive, and the market has been rising all the way.

International: on December 24, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $48.23/barrel, up US $0.11. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 51.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.10 U.S. dollars. Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, mainly due to the news that the UK and the EU have signed a post brexit trade agreement.

Recently, the market price of styrene has been falling continuously. Pure benzene prices fell, styrene cost support weak. Downstream production and sales decline, demand weakens, styrene spot shipment is difficult, and the downstream ABS price falls sharply. At present, the positive support of styrene is insufficient, and the night price of styrene futures also continues to decline. Recently, the spot price of styrene in East China is around 6600-6750 yuan / ton.

Next, the price of crude oil will rise with the support of OPEC international news agency’s data, so it is expected that the price of crude oil will rebound with the support of OPEC international news agency’s data.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, the o-benzene quotation of Sinopec dropped by 500 yuan / ton, and the domestic o-benzene market fell. As of December 22, Sinopec offered 5000.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene, down 9.09% from 5500 yuan / T at the end of last week (December 20).

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price is stable this week, the cost of o-benzene is stable, the price of mixed xylene is stable, and the upward momentum of o-benzene is weakened.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply in December. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride continued its downward trend in December. In December, phthalic anhydride dropped by 19%, and the market of phthalic anhydride fell sharply. The demand for phthalic anhydride was weak, and the market for o-benzene was weakened, and the negative effect was increased.

Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, this week, the price of mixed xylene of o-benzene raw materials tends to be stable, the cost of o-benzene is stable, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient; in December, the price of phthalic anhydride plummeted, which is negative for the market of o-benzene, and the demand for o-benzene drops sharply. In the future, the mixed xylene market tends to be stable, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient. The sharp drop of phthalic anhydride market drag down the price of o-benzene. However, with the stabilization of phthalic anhydride market, the demand of o-benzene is stabilized, and the pressure of o-benzene decline is weakened. It is expected that the future market of o-benzene will be weak and stable.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, plasticizer DOP prices rose sharply this week. As of December 21, the average price of DOP was 10533.33 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than that at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 8.97%.

Upstream market of industrial chain

As can be seen from the octanol price trend chart, octanol prices rose sharply this week, up 16.10%. Affected by the shutdown of n-butanol unit emergency maintenance, the price of n-butanol rose sharply, which led to the sharp rise of octanol price, the rise of DOP cost and the increase of DOP motivation.

Downstream market of industrial chain

From the PVC price trend chart can be seen, PVC prices this week a small shock drop. PVC market shock down, DOP demand fell, DOP support weakened, plasticizer DOP market negative.

Market review and future expectation

Business agency DOP data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that octanol prices soared this week, driving DOP prices up. Supported by DOTP consumption, octyl alcohol is in short supply in the near future. The rising price of octanol in the future market is well supported, and the cost of DOP raw materials is rising. However, in terms of demand, DOP price is high, and downstream customers are more resistant, and PVC market is weak, and DOP demand is insufficient. In the future, the expected increase of octanol price supports DOP’s rise, but the insufficient demand leads to the lack of motivation for DOP’s rise, which is not enough to support the continuous rise of DOP. It is expected that DOP market will maintain strong stability after rising.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose sharply this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9190 yuan / ton, 5.03% higher than that at the beginning of the week, and 10.25% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has continued to rise. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 9000-9500 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly higher. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is slightly tight, and the floor price continues to rise.

First of all, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite rose. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2702.22 yuan / ton, up 1.67% this week. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight. As the temperature dropped, some manufacturers in the North stopped their equipment, and the on-site supply decreased, and the domestic fluorite price rose. As of the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The rising price of fluorite was the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rose under the influence of favorable support.

The market of domestic refrigerants rose slightly this week. In recent years, the sales market of the automobile industry was general, and the market of refrigerants was improved. The trend of the refrigerant industry was rising, and the market of various types of refrigerants rose slightly. However, the manufacturers were under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure was large. The growth of raw material hydrofluoric acid was limited, and the support force was general. The export volume of refrigerants changed little The output of air conditioner is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerants increases little. On the whole, the refrigerant market is generally supported by favorable factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity remains low. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual delivery of goods is not smooth. The actual transaction center of gravity is slightly increased, and some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 13500-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market trend rose slightly, but the auto market industry continued to be depressed and the transaction atmosphere was light. There is sufficient supply of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity entering the market in the future market. The competition is fierce, and the supply side gradually forms a negative effect, and the price rises slightly. However, the downstream demand does not significantly improve, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises.

Third, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has risen slightly due to the partial maintenance of hydrofluoric acid devices in the field. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8800-9300 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9000-9500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is mainly rising, manufacturers reflect that the recent bullish sentiment is strong, and the later hydrofluoric acid market price has a greater driving force.

On the whole, due to the rising price of raw material fluorite, the prices of downstream refrigerants have risen slightly. In addition, due to the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid units, the spot supply on the spot is slightly tight. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

Recently, the domestic cyclohexanone market is mainly waiting and finishing. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 15, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 6783 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 8.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.65%.

The raw material of pure benzene is weak, the cost support is general, and the offer of cyclohexanone is stable, but the market shipment is blocked, and the transaction atmosphere is general. The East China market offers 7450-7550 yuan / T in cash, and the specific actual order is discussed. In terms of downstream demand, caprolactam spot supply is tight, and it is purchased on demand.

Price summary of cyclohexanone by Region:

Region, price

7400-7500 yuan / ton in East China

In South China, 7450-7550 yuan / ton is delivered in cash

7200-7300 yuan / ton in Shandong, cash delivery

The cost side support is weak, and the cyclohexanone factory shipment is hindered. However, the spot supply of caprolactam is tight, or there is some support for cyclohexanone. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will be stabilized in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data from the orthobenzene society, the price of benzene did not rise rapidly in early December. As of December 14, the contract price of o-xylene executed by Sinopec in East China was 5500.00 yuan / ton, while that of Sinopec in North China was 5650 yuan / ton. The average price of o-xylene was 5560 yuan / ton, up 1.09% compared with 5500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1); the price of o-xylene decreased by 1.07% compared with the highest point (December 2) of 5620.00 yuan / ton.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene rose sharply in December and then stabilized, with an overall increase of 9.15% in December, and the cost of o-benzene rose. However, with the price of mixed xylene stabilizing, the driving force of o-xylene’s rise was weakened.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that phthalic anhydride failed to continue the upward trend in November in December, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell in December with a drop of 11.54%. In general, the passion of phthalic anhydride market in December was no longer enthusiastic, the downstream demand of o-benzene weakened, the market of o-benzene weakened, and the negative effects increased.

Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst from business agency, in December, the mixed xylene price of o-benzene raw material became stable, and the cost of o-benzene in the future market became stable, and the driving force of o-benzene’s rise weakened; in December, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the passion of o-benzene Market ceased, the demand for o-benzene decreased, the good and bad of o-benzene weakened. Generally speaking, in December, the passion of o-benzene industrial chain was no longer enthusiastic, mixed xylene prices tended to stabilize, phthalic anhydride prices fell, o-benzene rising momentum weakened, downward pressure increased, it is expected that the future market of o-benzene prices will stabilize and the downward pressure will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell sharply this week. On Monday (December 7), the price of sample enterprises of business agency was 8066.67 yuan / ton, while on Friday (December 11), the price of sample enterprises was 7550.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.40%. The price was 0.44% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of styrene continued to fall this week. East China styrene closed at 7900-8100 yuan / ton on December 07, and 7550 yuan / ton on December 11, down 400 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang’s export price. South China styrene closed at 8400-8500 yuan / ton on December 07, and 8100 yuan / ton on December 11, down 300 yuan / ton, which was the delivery price of the above factories.

In terms of raw materials, the international oil price shows a dynamic trend of narrow wave recently. Pure benzene rose and then fell back, ethylene slowly fell and then rebounded. In general, the price of ethylene and pure benzene is weak, and the cost support of styrene is insufficient. As of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ethylene price was 954.25 yuan / ton, up 11.75 yuan / ton or 1.25% from 942.50 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). Ethylene downstream styrene, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, etc. due to cost and shipping pressure, the operating rate decreased, and the demand for raw materials procurement decreased. At the same time, the recent import of ethylene ships to the port, the supply increased significantly. The supply and demand side lacks the support of favorable factors, and the market quotation falls.

As for pure benzene, the mainstream quotation as of Friday (December 11) was 4556.00 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton or 0.44% from 4536.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene in East China was driven up by the continuous rise of styrene in the external market. At the end of the week, with the weakening of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene continued to fall. Some low-cost goods sources in the early stage began to profit taking, and the market selling increased, resulting in lower prices.

In terms of inventory, total inventory in East China this week was 69600 tons, down 2.66% from 71500 tons last week. There is less styrene in Hong Kong this week, and the rate of wharf going to storage has been greatly reduced. Arrival less than delivery, overall, port inventory decline. In terms of domestic styrene, the domestic styrene operating rate decreased slightly this week, with the average operating rate of 80.98% last week and 78.2% of this week, with a decrease of 2.78%. Under the pressure of cost and shipment, the total operating rate of domestic styrene production enterprises decreased. On the whole, enterprise inventory and social inventory are still in the middle and low level, and continue to be less in a short time.

On the downstream side, the overall downstream price of styrene fell this week. Although the production and sales remained profitable, some downstream profits shrank, and the traditional off-season terminal demand shrank, and some downstream accumulated stocks. In the PS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory price of PS in East China was 10133.33 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton or 3.80% from 10533.33 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). The average operating rate of domestic PS this week was 65.85%, slightly lower than that of 67.15% last week. Affected by the continuous weakening of styrene price, the bearish mentality of PS market appears, the atmosphere of market price reduction and shipment is strong, and the actual transaction is weak.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 9700.00 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton or 3.00% compared with 10000.00 yuan on Monday (December 07). The continuous fall of styrene price led to the downward trend of EPS market price, and the overall trading performance of the market was poor.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 16900.00 yuan / ton, down 1450 yuan / ton or 7.90% from 18350.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). This week, the price of ABS fell sharply due to the fall of styrene price and the decrease of terminal demand. ABS supply is good this week, no maintenance manufacturers, basically maintain full load operation, operating rate is the same as last week.

3、 Future prospects

The crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, the prices of ethylene and pure benzene at the raw material end are weak, and the cost support of styrene is insufficient. The situation of styrene supply side is generally acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient gas purchase. It is expected that styrene will be dominated by weak finishing next week, with the price range of 7400-7800 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China at the beginning of this week was 1800 yuan / ton, while that at the end of this week was 1900 yuan / ton, up 5.56%.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100-2200 yuan / T, which was flat compared with last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / T, 300 yuan / T higher than last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 2180 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1950 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid and 810 yuan / T of dilute nitric acid, The price of concentrated nitric acid was the same as last week. The delivery of nitric acid Market slowed down compared with the previous period, and most manufacturers’ quotations remained stable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable this week for the upstream liquid ammonia; 1.52% for aniline in the downstream; and 1.77% for the downstream TDI.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid Market Trading slows down, nitric acid analysts in the business community predict that the price of nitric acid will be mainly stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 4125.00 yuan / ton this week and 4150.00 yuan / ton this week, up 0.61%. The current price is up 1.22% month on month, and the current price is down 4.60% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate is rising, the supply is tight, and the quantity of goods delivered from different regions is not large. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer plants is relatively high, but the willingness to purchase is not big, and the price of potassium nitrate is slightly higher. According to the statistics of the business agency, this week’s domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotations are different according to different purchasing conditions.

On December 4, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / ton, and the quotation is up by 70 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2300 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was stable temporarily. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market continued to rise, can give potassium nitrate a certain cost support.

In the near future, the domestic price of potassium chloride is on the upward trend, which supports the cost of potassium nitrate. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, but the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the data from the large list of business associations, in November, the domestic adipic acid market continued its upward trend in October. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China increased by 18% in the whole month, mainly due to the driving of upstream costs, the new record of pure benzene price, and the recovery of downstream PA66 market. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current market quotation range of adipic acid is 8000-8500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in November, about 80% or more. The market supply of adipic acid was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers usually take the goods normally, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not big, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the distribution link. Therefore, the dealers are forced by the inventory pressure in the late November, and the quotation is slightly loose.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price maintained an upward pattern. The WTI price rose to around us $45, which supported the downstream petrochemical industry’s price to stabilize and rise. In particular, pure benzene continued to rise sharply in November. According to the business agency’s monitoring, the price of pure benzene rose by 16% in November (as shown in the figure above). The pressure of cost forced the price of adipic acid to rise. The price of pure benzene was adjusted back at the end of the month or the later price of adipic acid There will also be callback pressure.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance is rigid and stable. In the late stage of the epidemic, although the chemical industry rebounded steadily, the operating rate of downstream factories increased slightly. In addition, the rigid consumption of downstream polyurethane was stable, and the market of PA66 also rose sharply. Up to now, the price of PA66 has increased by 31% in November, as shown in the figure above. However, the price rise of PA66 slows down at the end of the month, and it is expected that the upward space will be limited in the later period.

In the later stage, it seems that adipic acid has been soaring for two consecutive months, mainly driven by the upstream and downstream. The market is mainly stabilized at the end of the month, mainly because the market mainly returns to the fundamentals. However, as winter approaches, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. The downstream gradually enters the off-season, and it is expected that adipic acid will stabilize in the near future Exclude the possibility of falling back.

Trade name: fuel oil 180CST

The latest price is RMB 3711-30-2020

Analysis points: on November 30, the price of fuel oil was 3737.50 yuan / ton, and the market was stable. According to the recent crude oil price, oil cost is supported by $53.45/barrel. On the other hand, in the short term, the terminal demand is still low, and the supply ship market has great resistance. It is understood that as of November 25, Singapore’s residual fuel oil inventory, including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 2036000 barrels to 24.038 million barrels, light distillate stocks including naphtha, gasoline and reformate oil increased by 112000 barrels to 12.546 million barrels, and medium distillate stocks decreased by 703000 barrels to 15.39 million barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: the fuel market is expected to remain stable in the short term.