The price of caustic soda in China maintained stable operation on February 26. According to the survey data of business associations, the commodity index of caustic soda on February 25 was 124.22, up 0.48 points from yesterday, down 39.95% from 206.87 points in the cycle (2017-11-14), and up 69.54% from 73.27 points on March 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable for the time being. The mainstream price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 810-920 yuan/ton. Shandong market traders are flexible in delivering goods, and the overall market turnover is scarce. It is expected that prices will be stable in the near future. The mainstream price of 32% alkali in Jiangsu is 850-910 yuan/ton, which can be negotiated in practice. The transaction is relatively stable. It is expected that the short-term price will run more steadily.

Business analysts believe that the current market demand has not changed much, the supply of caustic soda is relatively stable. The demand situation in downstream areas is general, the market lacks substantial good support, the speed of enterprises’moving goods slows down, and sales are not ideal. At the end of February, the market is waiting for the purchase of alumina enterprises, and some manufacturers reduce prices, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected that in the near future, the overall consolidation operation will be the main task, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.

Moscow, Feb. 13, Reuters reported that an energy industry source told Reuters that Russia’s average daily oil production from February to December was 11.34 million barrels per day, 70,000 barrels per day less than the reference month of the October global production reduction agreement.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other global oil producers agreed in December to cut their total production by 1.2 million barrels a day to support oil prices and try to balance markets. Russia is cutting production from 11.41 million barrels a day in October.

OPEC and other global oil producers agreed last December to cut their total production by 1.2 million barrels a day to support oil prices and try to balance the market. Russia is cutting production from 11.41 million barrels a day in October.

Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, said this month that oil production in January was 47,000 barrels a day lower than in October.

On February 12, the rare earth index was 345 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.50% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 27.31% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 398,000 yuan/ton, 1,655,000 yuan/ton and 660,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 315,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.21 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 397,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 399.5 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.22 million yuan per ton.

Recently, 12 departments have seriously dealt with illegal enterprises such as reselling illegal rare earth minerals, resulting in the cold trade in the domestic rare earth market. Some commodity prices in the rare earth market have declined, mainly concentrated in Praseodymium-Neodymium alloys and neodymium oxides. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a decline in the market of rare earth oxides, making the price of rare earth products firm. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of some commodities in the rare earth market is stable, the willingness of large enterprise groups to limit production in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but for the pricing of products, major manufacturers are cautious to wait and see. Recent rare earth export market is general, resulting in a decline in imports, which has a negative impact on the rare earth market. However, due to the limited volume, the price trend of some rare earth products is weak, but the price trend of most products is temporarily stable.

Eight inspecting groups composed of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Natural Resources and other ministries went to various places and launched special inspecting actions against eight provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, which are the main producing areas of rare earths. Prior to this, six departments of Jiangxi Province, a major producer of rare earth, jointly issued a special action document on cracking down on rare earth blacks, and conducted special supervision from September 2018 to January 2019. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has been cold.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringent inspection will not decrease in the near future, and the domestic reorganization of the order of the inhalation industry will have a certain positive impact on the rare earth industry. However, near the Spring Festival, the turnover of rare earth industry is limited, and the turnover of the rare earth industry is cold, and the price trend of the rare earth market is expected to be temporarily stable.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market declined in January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic granular sulfur was about 18,500 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic granular sulfur was about 14,066.67 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic granular sulfur dropped 23.96% in the month, 53.58% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic sulphur market rose first and then fell in January. Influenced by the spot market in Hong Kong, the mainstream port stock is not high, the market is supported by a small amount, the trader’s price-fixing mentality is obvious, the willingness to make profits and deliver goods is not strong, and downstream buyers are mainly on the lookout. In the early period, it rose slightly, but in the later period, it fell as a whole. As of January 31, the mainstream quotation of solid sulfur is between 1050 and 1410 yuan/ton, and liquid sulfur is between 1150 and 1350 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: In January, the domestic bromine market in the downstream maintained stable operation, with a slight increase of 1.15% in the month and a sharp increase of 18.61% over the same period last year. After winter, the domestic bromine market has been operating at a low level for a long time, and the stock of enterprises has been exhausted. Most enterprises stop until the end of February and the beginning of March. The market turnover is flat and the price of bromine is stable.

Industry: Domestic refineries maintain low inventory operation before the festival. Local refineries maintain stable prices until after the Spring Festival. Local refineries still have downward space, which is difficult to support the mindset of the operators. In the short run, the trend of vulnerable consolidation in Sulfur City is hard to change.

3. Future Market Forecast

With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is further weakening. Negotiations on internal and external markets lack information guidance, and on-site stalemate dominates. Sulphur analysts at business associations believe that the price of sulphur will continue to be stable in the near future.