This week (1.18-1.24), the downward trend of dichloromethane continued to expand. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 24th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2465 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 7.85%;

 

povidone Iodine

Logistics are restricted near the Spring Festival, market trading is weak, and demand support is insufficient. On January 24th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2410-2450 yuan/ton.

 

Supply side: The starting load this week remains stable compared to last week. The following is the operation status of the enterprise’s methane chloride unit:

 

Cost aspect: With the holiday approaching and poor demand, the shipment of methanol and liquid chlorine is under pressure, and the market continues to decline. On January 24th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.65% from the beginning of the month.

 

Demand side: The refrigerant market is facing tight supply, with prices maintaining stability and exploring upward trends. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, foreign trade delivery is not optimistic, and the domestic trade atmosphere is light.

 

Business analysts believe that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, transportation restrictions, holiday arrangements, and other factors will further affect overall production and sales. Waiting for resumption of work and production after the holiday, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate weakly and steadily after the holiday.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable on January 23, with a market average price of 1494 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day’s price of 1494 yuan/ton, and a 2.23% decrease from the beginning of the month. On January 23, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 76.62, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 59.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 21.33% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

On January 23rd, the soda ash market operated steadily. The operating rate of the supply side soda ash plant is still at a high level, the market supply of goods is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively high, maintaining active shipment; On the demand side, the terminal market prices are generally average, with limited replenishment demand and insufficient support for soda ash. Enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and soda ash quotations remain stable.

 

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices were lowered on January 23, with a market average price of 16.30 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.81% compared to the previous trading day’s price of 16.60 yuan/square meter. The glass market equipment has not changed much, and the production has remained stable. The downstream stocking demand has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The glass market is weak and declining.

 

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity is high, the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient, and the downstream glass market is weak. The demand for soda ash is average, and there is a supply-demand game in the market. It is expected that the soda ash market will operate weakly, depending on downstream market demand.

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Product Name: Pure Benzene

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Latest price: On January 21st, the average market price was 7519.67 yuan/ton

 

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market is temporarily stable and consolidating. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have stable prices for pure benzene, with a price of 7500 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, Shandong’s local refining enterprises mainly focus on stocking up and raising prices. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is still acceptable. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and it is expected that the pure benzene market will stabilize and operate in the short term. Actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

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1、 Review of the 2024 Epichlorohydrin Market:

 

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of epichlorohydrin at the beginning of the year was 8125 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 7987 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.7% for the whole year. According to the price trend chart, the highest point of the year’s price occurred in mid December, with a market average price of 9225 yuan/ton. The lowest point of the year’s price occurred in mid July, with a market average price of 7875 yuan/ton, and the maximum fluctuation range for the year was 1350 yuan/ton.

 

From the trend chart, we can see that the epoxy chloropropane market in 2024 shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the first half of the year, the epoxy chloropropane market fluctuated downward, and in the second half of the year, the price rapidly increased before experiencing a slight decline. The supply-demand game is an important cause of price fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there was an overall oversupply in the market, and traders were cautious and cautious, with prices remaining low; In the second half of the year, high raw material prices provided support, and most enterprises were operating at full capacity. In addition, some factories were temporarily shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods in the market. At the same time, downstream demand has improved, procurement is active, and prices continue to rise, maintaining an upward trend.

 

From the perspective of raw materials:

 

Glycerol: High market prices and cost pressures on glycerol in 2024

 

The profit of the propylene process unit in 2024 is around 70.54 yuan/ton, and the profit of the glycerol process unit is about 218.07 yuan/ton. Around June, glycerol prices experienced a decline, while the cost profit of epichlorohydrin remained relatively considerable; After entering the second half of the year, glycerol prices rapidly rose, leading to increased costs and slightly insufficient profits for suppliers.

 

Acrylic: China’s propylene market will fluctuate and decline in 2024

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 6868.25 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6835.75 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.47% in the market during the year. Based on the comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the price of propylene will show a fluctuating trend in 2025. The specific trend still requires close attention to market dynamics and policy support.

 

2、 2025 Epichlorohydrin Supply End Forecast:

 

The production capacity of epichlorohydrin will grow rapidly in 2024, with a total capacity of approximately 2.215 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.91%. Driven by the expansion of production capacity, the output has also increased. The domestic production of epichlorohydrin in 2024 is about 1.275 million tons, an increase of 7.74% compared to last year.

 

From the graph, it can be seen that the production capacity of epichlorohydrin will maintain a growth trend in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The newly added production capacity in 2023 will be around 300000 tons, and in 2024 it will be around 140000 tons. The production in 2024 will also increase slightly compared to 2023, and it is expected that the supply side of epichlorohydrin will continue to show incremental expectations in 2025.

 

In 2025, the epichlorohydrin industry will see the commissioning of multiple new production capacity projects and steady expansion of existing capacity. Against the backdrop of high downstream demand potential, technological innovation, and increasing environmental requirements, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.

 

3、 Forecast of demand for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

 

Epoxy resin is the largest downstream of epichlorohydrin, accounting for about 90%. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of epoxy resin will first decrease and then increase in 2024. The highest value of the year occurred in December at about 14066.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest value of the year occurred in April at about 12600.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 11.64%. The production capacity and output of epoxy resin will steadily increase in 2024, providing strong support for the epoxy chloropropane industry and further driving its market demand growth. It is expected that the production capacity of epoxy resin will continue to grow in 2025, and more attention should be paid to the impact of the industry’s operating conditions on the epoxy chloropropane market.

 

Import and export

 

In terms of imports, according to customs data, the total import volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 646.97 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%. From the graph, it can be seen that the import volume of epichlorohydrin in China has shown a decreasing trend year by year. Mainly due to the overcapacity of epichlorohydrin production in China in recent years, the import arbitrage window has narrowed, the dependence on imports has decreased, and coupled with weak domestic demand, some factories are producing at low loads, limiting the growth rate of production and resulting in a decrease in import volume. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous expansion of production capacity and output, China’s epichlorohydrin industry will gradually achieve self-sufficiency and not rely on imports.

 

In terms of exports, according to customs data, the total export volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 84352719 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.79%. In 2024, it has surpassed the high level of 72000 tons in 2022 and set a new historical high. With the continuous expansion of production capacity and increasingly fierce industry competition, domestic enterprises are actively seeking overseas markets. It is expected that the export volume of epichlorohydrin in China will continue to increase by 2025.

 

4、 Market forecast for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

 

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of epichlorohydrin will increase in 2025, and the demand side may still dominate the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will fluctuate narrowly in 2025, and more attention should still be paid to cost pressures.

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1、 Price trend

 

povidone Iodine

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1711 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% lower than the reference average price of 1721 yuan/ton on January 13th.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

market conditions

 

This week, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated slightly. As of January 17th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1600-1655 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1650 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1760 yuan/ton.

 

Supply and demand situation

 

This week, the urea market has seen stable supply and increased demand. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week, and market inventory remains loose. In terms of demand, there has been an increase in downstream agricultural demand before the holiday, smooth transactions in the urea market, and a decrease in industrial demand.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been mainly fluctuating at a low level recently. At present, the demand for pre holiday market replenishment is increasing, and downstream replenishment demand will gradually weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate prices continued to bottom out and fluctuate in mid January. As of January 15th, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 76300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from last week’s 76000 yuan/ton and a decrease of 2.18% from the same period last month’s 78000 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 79100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from 78600 yuan/ton last week and down 1.62% from 80400 yuan/ton in the same period last month.

 

In terms of raw materials:

 

The shutdown or reduction of production by some Australian lithium mining companies may put upward pressure on lithium ore prices,. However, at the same time, the expected production of lithium resources in salt lakes is optimistic and has a cost competitive advantage. The sufficient supply of lithium resources in salt lakes and low-cost production are expected to have a certain inhibitory effect on the market price of lithium carbonate.

 

Downstream demand side

 

The operating rate of downstream battery factories has increased, and there is still a demand for pre holiday stocking. The power battery market has performed well, especially in the production and sales of ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, and electric vehicles, which have achieved considerable month on month growth. This growth trend has had a corresponding boosting effect on the demand for lithium carbonate. Internationally, the results of the US presidential election have been implemented, and tariffs may increase in the future, leading to an increase in battery factory production.

 

According to the analysis of lithium carbonate data from Shengyi Society, although some Australian mines are experiencing production cuts and shutdowns. However, the overall inventory of lithium carbonate is still excessive, and downstream demand is improving. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate.

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1、 Price trend

 

povidone Iodine

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5% compared to the same period last year. On January 9th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.66% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 30.41% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are conducting centralized maintenance. Most downstream manufacturers have also stopped production. Downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1654.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1624.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.81% and an increase of 75.29% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

 

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. However, downstream demand for bromine has decreased, with demand mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5746.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 5816.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.20%. Due to insufficient support from suppliers, weak downstream demand, and poor market trading, the price of ethyl acetate has weakened and declined.

 

Market analysis: This month, the ethyl acetate market has fluctuated and fallen. During the month, there were frequent changes in the ethyl acetate plant, and the mentality of the industry was unstable. At the same time, downstream performance was poor, demand remained weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light. In a timely manner, upstream acetic acid prices rose, but the price increase of ethyl acetate was still limited, resulting in a supply-demand game in the market. The overall price of ethyl acetate fluctuated weakly during the month.

 

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of December 31st, the price was 2970 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.68% compared to the acetic acid price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market first fell and then rose, increasing cost pressure and reducing profits for ethyl acetate.

 

Looking at the future, the current price of ethyl acetate has been adjusted downwards, and downstream entry enthusiasm is not high, which provides weak support for the market. Although the price of raw material acetic acid is strong, there may be some psychological support, but the supply and demand game continues in the market. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will continue to be weakly adjusted and operated in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

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1、 Price trend

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices declined in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 1021 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 827 yuan/ton. The overall price decreased by 19%, and the price increased by 3.63% compared to the same period last year. On December 30th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 823 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 41.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 37.63% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 900-960 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 780-850 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. Local prices in Shandong remain stable and wait-and-see, while overall supply from enterprises is sufficient. Downstream alumina exhibits narrow fluctuations, with demand driven purchasing trends.

 

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 52nd week of 2024 (12.23-12.27), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 4 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are caustic soda (-5.30%) and PVC (-0.20%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.92%.

 

Business analysts believe that caustic soda prices have been consolidating recently. The price of caustic soda is in a stable operating trend, with sufficient inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is generally expected to maintain a stable operating trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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