Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price July 28: 27666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic yellow phosphorus Market stopped falling and consolidated on July 28. Yesterday, power was cut again in Yunnan, and the construction in the province fell. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus is tight, the on-site inquiry is increasing, and there is basically no transaction in new orders. The manufacturer mainly sends early orders, mostly does not make external quotations, and the market is mainly on the sidelines.

Business agency yellow phosphorus analysts believe that Yunnan’s power rationing again triggered a decline in output, yellow phosphorus stopped falling and consolidated, and the yellow phosphorus market will mainly wait and see in the short term.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price July 27: 6366.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on July 27, the trading atmosphere of domestic isopropanol market was light. The wait-and-see mood in the downstream is obvious, the goods are taken very carefully, and the weak atmosphere is obvious. Affected by the typhoon, dangerous chemicals in Zhejiang are out of service, and many operators wait and see. Up to now, the quotation range of Shandong isopropanol is about 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 6350-6400 yuan / ton. The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 6300-6350 yuan / ton.

Forecast: isopropanol low level consolidation in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the dichloromethane market fell slightly this week (7.19-7.23). As of July 23, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3926 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from 3940 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the operating rate of some downstream areas such as film, diluent and foaming agent decreased, and the support for dichloromethane weakened.

The price of raw liquid chlorine fell sharply, the price of methanol rose slightly, and the cost support was weak. According to the business agency, as of July 23, the price of methanol was 2585 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.27% compared with 2552 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong Province is about 900 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that although on the one hand, the cost support weakens, on the other hand, the overall supply and demand pressure increases, on the whole, there is a high probability that the dichloromethane market will weaken in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 23333.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 2866.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 22.86% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

In July, affected by power rationing in Yunnan, the price of yellow phosphorus increased. The price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise this week. The manufacturers mainly issued early orders, and some manufacturers temporarily stopped making external quotations. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 27000-28000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 28000-30000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 28000 yuan / ton. Due to the rapid rise of prices, the wait-and-see mood in the field is obvious, and the acceptance of high price yellow phosphorus in the downstream is limited. At present, the market is relatively deadlocked.

In terms of raw materials, at present, the overall phosphorus ore market is in high-level consolidation and operation. As of July 22, the vehicle price of 28% low-grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is around 400-470 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is good, and most orders are mainly in the early stage of delivery.

In terms of coke, the coke market as a whole is weak. The coke market price of Shandong and Hong Kong decreased slightly today. At present, the mainstream spot exchange delivery price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in the port area is about 2670 yuan / ton, and the price of primary coke is 2770 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with the price the day before yesterday. The inventory of the two ports remained low, the mentality of port traders improved slightly, and some small transactions were made, However, the intention of traders to gather in Hong Kong is still low. As of July 23, the market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2830 yuan / ton.

This week, the phosphoric acid and phosphate markets were mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The commencement of the phosphoric acid market declined, and the market price of phosphoric acid also increased significantly compared with last week. The actual transaction was mainly through negotiation, and enterprises supplied a small amount of orders from old customers. The acceptability of glyphosate to high priced yellow phosphorus is acceptable. On the whole, the downstream is more resistant to high price yellow phosphorus, mainly on the sidelines.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply at present. Power rationing in Yunnan and reduction of yellow phosphorus production. The downstream is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, mainly on the sidelines, and the market is deadlocked. It is expected that in the short term, the yellow phosphorus price will mainly run at a high level.

Starting on July 19, the DME market was dominated by favorable factors. In the month, the price of Henan Province has been running for 3500 yuan / ton. According to the data of business society, the average price of DME in Henan market was 3370.00 yuan / ton on July 18, 3442.50 yuan / ton on July 21, and the increase was 2.15% in three days, with a significant increase. As of July 21, the market prices of DME in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 21st 3480-3670 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 21st 3590 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 21st RMB 3430-3480 / ton

After entering this week, the price of DME was increased continuously, and the main production area of Henan Province increased significantly. Taking xinlianxin as an example, on July 18, Henan xinlianxin DME quoted 3340 yuan / ton, and 3460 yuan / ton on July 22. During the period, it was increased by 120 yuan / T, and the score was 3500 yuan / ton.

Shandong and Hebei are benefited by the rise of main production areas, followed by the main actors. At present, the market of DME is dominated by the decrease of market supply in Henan Province, and the maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices will bring some benefits to the market. Secondly, in terms of raw materials, the cost methanol has been stable and upward in the near future. Although the fluctuation range is limited, the strong price also brings some support to the market. In addition, the recent upstream behavior of the civil market of liquefied gas is the main, and the enthusiasm of entering the market under the mentality of downstream buying and rising is still acceptable. The overall delivery of the manufacturers is smooth, the mentality is strong and the price is continuously rising.

In terms of the cost methanol market, with the approaching of long-term settlement date in Northwest China this month, freight still continues to rise, the upstream is strong and some regions still have expectations of continuing to increase the quotation. It is expected that the mainland market will remain high. The methanol market in Northwest China continued to push up in some parts, and the factory quotation of some major production enterprises was significantly increased, which guided the manufacturers in other regions to quote, and some factories in the mainland would continue to increase the quotation. The increase in freight also promoted the methanol market to a certain extent.

At present, Henan is affected by rainstorm and limited transportation. The overall shipment of manufacturers has been significantly weaker than that in the early stage, but the low supply in the province has brought some support to the market. Hebei and Shandong are not affected for a while. The market production and marketing are balanced, the mentality of the manufacturers is strong, and the current price rise of the cost of methanol and civil gas has brought some benefits to the market, It is not expected that the DME market will fall in a short period of time.

Crude oil continued to fall, bad market mentality, coupled with gasoline also entered the decline, demand is more depressed, Shandong merchants poor sales, prices continue to decline adjustment. According to business news agency data, as of July 19, the price of MTBE was 5716 yuan / ton, down 10.72% month on month and up 51.10% year on year.

Last week, the MTBE market continued to decline, with light turnover. Crude oil continued to decline, bad market mentality, coupled with the recent weak demand, MTBE local business sales pressure still exists.

In terms of external market, as of July 16, the closing price of Asian MTBE market was down by US $8 / T compared with the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at US $730-732 / T. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by US $5.25/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $827.5-828/t. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by US $1.17/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf offshore price closed at US $798.75-799.1/t (225.00-225.10 cents / gal).

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore 730-732 USD / T – 8 US dollars / ton

U.S.A FOB Bay 798.75-799.1 USD / T US $1.17/t

Europe FOB ARA 827.5-828 USD / T – US $5.25/t

The recent downturn of crude oil and gasoline has led to weak demand for raw materials in the downstream. In addition, the price of other raw materials is still about 200-400 yuan / ton lower than that of MTBE, so the sales pressure of MTBE merchants is still there. Business community MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market will remain sluggish.

In the new week, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the morning market. However, the holders intend to offer higher prices. As the market becomes clear near noon, it is difficult to find low-cost goods. The bisphenol a market continues to rise sharply in the new week. The current market reference offer has reached 25800-26000 yuan / ton. After the news of factory parking last week, the holders’ attitude of pushing up is becoming stronger, Moreover, after the price rise in the early stage, most traders have actively sold off their sources of goods. At present, the market circulation is limited, and it is difficult to find low-cost sources of goods. However, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is general, and there is a lack of downstream real orders to support the market upward. In terms of units, mainstream plants such as Sinopec Mitsubishi, Changchun chemical and Mitsui (three-day parking) are under full operation in the short term, while 80% of the plants such as Lihua yiweiyuan and Nantong Xingchen are under operation. Generally speaking, the expected operation rate will decline in the future.

From the perspective of raw material side, the phenol market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market negotiation is deadlocked. The negotiation is between 9400-9500 yuan / ton. The overall change is not big in the near future. The port inventory is relatively stable, the pressure on the supply side is not big, and the downstream delivery mood is not good. It is difficult for the cargo holders to expect to push up the market, the overall atmosphere is not warm, and it is difficult to make large volume on the trading side. On the other hand, the acetone raw material market as a whole rose slightly. The mainstream negotiation range was 5000-5100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere was general. Most of the goods holders made offers with them. At present, there was an increase in Hong Kong Inventory. The replenishment mood of terminal factories was general. The actual orders were mainly small ones.

Under the pressure of cost, the market of downstream liquid epoxy resin is rising obviously. According to the current bisphenol A (unit consumption 0.68) plus various expenses, the cost of liquid resin is 29000 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of cost is greater. It is reported that the mainstream negotiation price of East China liquid epoxy resin is 31500-32000 yuan / ton in barrels, and the market of solid epoxy resin is 29000 yuan / ton, The epoxy resin market is also showing a situation of low price and reluctant to sell. At present, the epoxy resin is still digesting the pressure brought by the sharp rise in cost, and most factories arrange procurement.

In the view of the business community, it is obvious that the goods holders are reluctant to sell, and the market price rises rapidly. However, after the broad range continues to rise, the terminal still needs time to digest, and the terminal is purchasing on demand. At present, the bisphenol a market lacks more support. It is expected that bisphenol a market will maintain a high level in the short term, but it still needs to be decided in the later stage.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the external price of ethylene has been on the rise in recent years. On July 14, the price was US $1037.00/ton, and on July 16, the average price of ethylene was US $1048.75/ton, up 1.13%. The current price is down 1.89% month on month, and the current price is up 41.39% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. The price of ethylene in Asia rose. As of the 23rd, CFR closed at US $995-1005 / T in Northeast Asia and US $960-970 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 23rd, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1159-1169 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1062-1072 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. As of the 23rd, the price was $1152-1169 / ton. The recent external market of ethylene has been mixed. The price of ethylene in the U.S. has increased a lot in the early stage, but has dropped in the near future. On the whole, the external market demand of ethylene is good in the near future, the buying atmosphere is active, the transaction is good, and the ethylene market rises slightly.

International: on July 15, international oil prices continued the trend of the previous trading day and continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 71.65 US dollars / barrel, down 1.48 US dollars or 2.2%, while the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was 73.47 US dollars / barrel, down 1.29 US dollars or 1.7%. US oil reached its lowest closing price in nearly a month after OPEC + and OPEC + reached an agreement on increasing production. The bad news caused by the effect of increasing production is still fermenting, and the worry caused by the virus mutation of the epidemic has deepened the decline of oil prices.

The atmosphere of Asian styrene US dollar market is light. There are few offers within the day. Only a few paper goods have been heard and there is no actual negotiation. CFR China closed at 1230-1240, with an average price down 15%; FOB Korea closed at 1210-1220, with an average price down 15%. Unit: USD / T

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil: inventory growth, the market is not optimistic about the crude oil market, so the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 5700 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the week was 5666 yuan / ton, down 0.58%.

2、 Market analysis

On July 16, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5400-5500 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 5900 yuan / ton, which is the same as last time. Polyoxymethylene market is weak and stable, and the quotation of manufacturers is stable.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2530 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 2545 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 0.59%.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene market demand is general, business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect that polyoxymethylene prices or will run smoothly.

As of July 13, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 90000 yuan / ton, up 0.37% compared with last Tuesday (July 6), 3.05% compared with June 1, and 13.92% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the data from the business club’s block list.

In June, the market of lithium hydroxide rose steadily, with an overall increase of 2.67%. In July, the market was operating at a high level and prices rose at the beginning of the week. Some manufacturers shut down for maintenance, the output decreased, the market spot supply was tight, and the demand side was improved, the market was willing to push up obviously, the quotation was high, and the market transaction price was higher.

Import and export data of lithium hydroxide from January to may 2021 (unit: kg)

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton as of July 12, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. On July 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business news agency, generally speaking, the current tight spot supply and good demand performance form an effective support for the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may be relatively strong, and the specific trend needs more attention to the market information guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 12, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4875.00 yuan / ton, the market of silica was stable, the supply side was normal, the manufacturers were active in shipping, the upstream support was general, the downstream just needed to purchase, the overall operating rate was normal, the negotiation atmosphere was flat, the mainstream price range was 4500-5000 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable overall trend, with the mainstream price range of 4500-5000 yuan / ton. The main contract orders are given priority to, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall market purchasing atmosphere is flat, with negotiation as the main part. The merchants have a stable mentality, stable negotiation focus, cautious delivery, slow delivery, balanced supply and demand, normal delivery and general inventory, The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the overall market is general, mainly focusing on stable operation.

Upstream hydrochloric acid commodity index: on July 11, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 60.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.47% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-12) in the cycle, and up 236.65% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Business community silica analysts believe that: in the short term, silica maintains stable operation, and the range of price fluctuation is limited（ If you want to know more about the industry chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get the information and grasp the price.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price fluctuated widely this week. As of July 9, the nickel price rose slightly by 0.84%, and the spot price was 137266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.84% from the beginning of the week, 8.03% from the beginning of the year, and 29.75% from the same period last year.

At the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, the domestic import of nickel ore increased, but the output of ferronickel increased driven by profits, the consumption of nickel ore increased, and the price of nickel ore will continue to strengthen in the later period. At present, the demand of downstream stainless steel at home and abroad is still good, the domestic export tax rebate policy is cancelled, and some overseas orders are replaced by Indonesian stainless steel. At present, the domestic and foreign inventory of nickel market continues to decline, and the domestic inventory and warehouse receipts are at the lowest level in history, which brings support to the nickel price.

Forecast: low inventory and tight nickel supply still support the nickel price. The expected reduction of steel production will keep the price of stainless steel high, and the nickel price will maintain a strong fluctuation pattern in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market price of ammonium chloride continued to rise in June, with the price around 760 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 830 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 9.21%.

In June, the overall operating rate of ammonium chloride enterprises was around 75%, the supply of ammonium chloride was stable, and there was no pressure for manufacturers to ship; In June, the overall operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer decreased to 30-40%, and the support for ammonium chloride was weak. According to the business news agency, as of June 30, 2021, Huai’an Bolian commerce and trade agricultural ammonium chloride premium products price is stable, now dry ammonium quotation 900 yuan / ton.

The sharp rise of raw material liquid ammonia, the increase of export volume in urea market in May, and the price rise again in mid and late June due to the impact of printing standard news, all of which formed strong support for ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of June 30, the domestic price of liquid ammonia was 4433 yuan / ton, up 4.31% from 4250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of June 30, the domestic urea price was 2800 yuan / ton, up 16.51% from 2403 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business community ammonium chloride analysts believe that although the start-up is not low, but the cost of ammonium chloride support is strong, it is expected that ammonium chloride will remain strong in the short term; But in the medium term, with the end of the peak season of agricultural demand, the price of agricultural materials will fall to a certain extent, and the price of ammonium chloride may fall to a certain extent in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 6, the comprehensive price of PC market was 23375.00 yuan / ton. The price of PC has been running at a high level in the near future, and the price has risen slightly. The manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, and it will remain stable in the short term.

The overall market price of PC has slightly increased, the focus of negotiation is relatively high, and the PC market mainly fluctuates at a high level. At present, the supply side is normal, the downstream demand is general, and the upstream bisphenol A has increased steadily, with the price range of 21000-21200 yuan / ton. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and is mainly stable in the short term.

On July 5, the commodity index of bisphenol A was 199.05, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.71% from 283.19 (2021-04-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 176.11% from 72.09, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to the present

Business community PC analysts believe that: PC in the short term to maintain a steady rise in operation（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

Domestic BDO spot supply is still tight, and the focus of discussion continues to explore. At present, factory delivery contracts and early orders are dominant, spot control supply continues, and new single offer is rarely heard. Traders have limited sources of goods and are reluctant to sell. Some bulls have a strong atmosphere of speculation and offer higher end. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of July 5, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 18075 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 7.78% and a year-on-year increase of 129.38%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is 18000-18500 yuan / ton, while the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 18000-19000 yuan / ton.

Recently, some factories released maintenance news from July to August, and the main delivery contract orders, spot control supply, the main traders hold limited sources of goods, are reluctant to sell, mainly deliver early orders, and offer few new orders. Some bulls continued to speculate, while the middle and lower reaches continued to chase up and replenish their positions. The focus of the talks was on the top.

For the installation, lanshantunhe is scheduled to be overhauled for one month on July 25; Maintenance plan of Xinjiang Meike phase II in July; Xinjiang Xinye plans to stop for 20 days on July 25; Dongyuan plans to replace the catalyst from July 20 to 30.

The factory continues to control the pace of shipment, the supply side has a certain advantage, and the main manufacturers are reluctant to sell and report high. At the same time, the transmission strength of downstream industries such as PTMEG and GBL is acceptable, which supports the operators’ trading mentality. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to rise in the short term.

In June, the domestic butadiene market continued the upward trend. The price of butadiene in China rose to a new high in the year, driven by the continued high rise of the external market. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic butadiene market price was 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 8852 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 18.68% in the month, a year-on-year increase of 156.09%, and a maximum amplitude of 46.16% in the first half of the year.

In June, the domestic butadiene market continued the upward trend. During the month, the delayed start-up of phase II plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., the unexpected situation of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Quanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd., as well as the supply side news such as domestic exports of goods all gave obvious support to the market. The price of butadiene in China rose to a new high in the year, driven by the continued high rise of the external market. Although the downstream synthetic rubber market rose slightly, the terminal performance was not good. The butadiene market rose without the continuous support of downstream demand. In the middle and late ten days, with the butadiene industry reaching a high level, the transaction of some high price sources was gradually weak; In addition, affected by the policy, the downstream construction was not good at the end of the month, and the transportation in some areas was limited, the market trading was gradually weakening, and the market performance stopped rising and consolidation.

In terms of enterprises, the supply price of butadiene in Sinopec’s sales companies increased by 1300-1800 yuan / ton month on month, and 8800-9300 yuan / ton as of June 30; Nanjing Chengzhi 100 kt / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit was put into operation on June 17 after restart; LG of South Korea added 130000t / a butadiene plant, which was put into operation within a month and is now in stable operation.

As of July 2, the factory quotations of some domestic butadiene manufacturers are as follows:

enterprise ., Price (yuan / ton)%, plant dynamic

Liaoyang Petrochemical 8960 yuan / ton Stable operation of 30000 T / a butadiene plant

Dalian Hengli 9110 yuan / ton 140000t / a butadiene plant operates stably, and the source of goods is normal for export

Liaotong chemical 9010 yuan / ton 130 tons of goods for export

Fushun Petrochemical No export Normal operation of 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit

Jiutai, Inner Mongolia / The 70 kt / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit has been shut down for maintenance since April 12 and is expected to last about 20-30 days

Sipang, Jiangsu Province nine thousand and four hundred Stable operation of 100 kt / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit

Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd nine thousand Normal operation of 165000 T / a plant

Shanghai Petrochemical nine thousand Normal operation of 120000 T / a plant

Yangzi Petrochemical nine thousand Normal operation of 120000 T / a plant

Sinopec nine thousand The 200000 t / a plant is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical eight thousand nine hundred and fifty 150000 T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Guangzhou Petrochemical nine thousand The 30000 T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Wuhan ethylene nine thousand and three hundred 190kt / a extraction unit operates stably, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

External price: as of July 1, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1365-1375 / T; CFR China closed at US $1305-1315 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1795-1805 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1345-1355 euros / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Korea 1365-1375 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR China 1305-1315 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam 1795-1805 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1345-1355 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

In the short term, the domestic butadiene market is still driven by the external market. Supported by the high external market, the domestic market may fluctuate at a high level at the end of June and the first half of July. However, under the pressure of terminal demand, the upward momentum of the market is slightly insufficient. Business community butadiene analysts expect that short-term domestic butadiene market high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the price chart of business agency, as of June 30, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile remained 14820.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day, falling 0.74% compared with the previous Wednesday, and 3.64% higher than that on May 30

2、 Market analysis

4. In May, acrylonitrile was in a downward trend of oscillation, with a downward range of about 13%; In June, the attitude of rapid rise in the first half of June was 3.87%, while the next half of the month was down slightly, down 1.47%. With the centennial celebration of the party building, many environmental protection and production restrictions have been made in recent years. Apart from Jilin Petrochemical overhaul, most manufacturers’ production units are in medium and high load operation this week, among which Daqing Petrochemical, Daqing Refining and chemical industry, Shandong kerur, Shanghai Secco and Lanzhou Petrochemical have reached 100% and Anqing Petrochemical has reached 103%. There is no shortage of difficult goods to take, the pressure of the manufacturer’s inventory is too small, and the basic supply and demand is still stable; But the market users demand generally, and the trading atmosphere is light; The upstream cost support is general, and the downstream driving effect is not strong, so the upward range of acrylonitrile is not large and the sustainability is not strong, and the price is temporarily stable after being shaken.

upper reaches:

According to the price map of the business agency, the propylene market in Shandong Province has been in a volatile downward trend, and the market transaction rose to between 7600 yuan and 7900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7900 yuan / ton. The price of mainstream manufacturers remained unchanged, and the low-end prices increased. The propene market is expected to stabilize or rise in the near future.

Downstream:

NBR overall showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the market continued to stabilize after falling to 20900 yuan / T. Analysts from business society believe that the supply side is relatively low, and the price has fallen sharply in the early stage, and the NBR market is expected to be stable in the later period.

According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the spot price of ABS in early June was weak and the spot price was generally down. The trend of raw materials is different, ABS cost end support is general. At present, it is in the off-season of ABS industry, the demand of end-users shrinks, and the resistance of enterprises and businesses to ship is increasing. ABS analysts of business agency think that the recent ABS spot market may continue to be short.

According to the data of business society, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 28 was 88.35, which was flat with yesterday, down 17.53% from 107.13 points (may 08, 2019), which was the highest point in the cycle, and 6.59% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to now) business analyst thinks that since the second quarter, the factory has resumed normal construction, sufficient supply, no obvious change in demand and no action in the market. The effect of the price change of LPG is not reflected correctly. Polyacrylamide market is weak, and the market will not change significantly in the short term; But if crude oil continues to rise obviously, the polyacrylamide market, as an indirect downstream, may be reflected in the day.

3、 Future forecast

The analysis of acrylonitrile in business agency thinks: the market of acrylonitrile is stable after the market shock finishing, and the upstream propylene market is in a volatile manner; ABS is weak in downstream; NBR is stable; Polyacrylamide market is flat; The trading atmosphere of acrylonitrile market is general, and the demand of downstream users is general, and it may be slightly shaken in the near future, and it is mainly stable.

Product Name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3316 yuan / ton

Commodity index: diammonium phosphate commodity index on June 30 was 98.93, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 3.93% compared with the highest point of 102.98 (2011-10-08) in the cycle, and increased by 54.60% compared with the lowest point of 63.99 on June 30, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of DAP is stable at present. The domestic demand for diammonium is flat, and the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises start low and purchase on demand. DAP export volume is large, foreign market demand is good, and market enthusiasm is high.

Future forecast: diammonium phosphate is expected to run smoothly in the short term.