On December 1, 2023, the electrolytic manganese market first rose and then stabilized, showing an overall upward trend. The spot market price in East China was at 13750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 13900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.09%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively stable.

In terms of manganese ore: The manganese ore market was weak in December. Affected by weather factors, downstream manufacturers have increased their inquiries and stock up, resulting in a significant increase in market activity. The transaction prices at ports are inconsistent. Although there have been low-priced transactions, it appears that most miners have weakened their willingness to ship at low prices. With the gradual arrival of winter storage pace in the later stage, demand for manganese ore may gradually improve. As of December 28th, Tianjin Hong Kong Macao Block is priced at 36 yuan/ton (down 0.4 yuan/ton), Gabon is priced at 34.8 yuan/ton (unchanged), and South Africa’s semi carbonated carbon is priced at 30.5 yuan/ton (up 0.1 yuan/ton); Qinzhou Hong Kong Macao block is priced around 36.3 yuan/ton (down 0.7 yuan/ton), Gabon is priced around 35.3 yuan/ton (down 0.7 yuan/ton), and South African semi carbonates are priced around 31 yuan/ton (up 0.3 yuan/ton).

In December 2023, the electrolytic manganese market first rose and then stabilized. In the first half of the month, the electrolytic manganese market slightly rebounded, and the mainstream market price rose to 12300-12500 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, some southern enterprises had production reduction plans. Under the influence of tight supply expectations, enterprises had a strong mentality of price support, and factory prices were raised one after another. It was difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and market expectations improved, driving up spot market prices. Due to the lack of significant increase in downstream demand in the mid to late period, the spot market without demand support has little room for further upward growth. Under the mentality of supply-demand game, the market maintained a temporary stable operation for about half a month. As of the end of the month, there has still been no significant change in supply and demand. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, the overall trading volume in the spot market is slightly sluggish, and the mentality of smelters to raise prices is still strong. In terms of demand, downstream steel mills purchase on demand, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance. Overall, the market lacks clear guidance and sentiment is weak. It is expected that the spot market will operate weakly in the short term, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

In December, shrouded in haze, the sluggish silicon and manganese market continued. In December, the bidding price for silicon and manganese fell, causing increased losses for manufacturers. Production enthusiasm was low, inventory still needed to be consumed, high prices were difficult to achieve, and market confidence was insufficient. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6150-6250 yuan/ton on December 28th, with an average market price of 6215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% compared to the beginning of the month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 26th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 133600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.60% compared to December 1st.

The domestic lithium hydroxide market continued its downward trend in December. Within the month, the upstream lithium carbonate price weakened, the upstream spodumene concentrate market operated weakly, and the cost side continued to decline. The downstream demand for high nickel materials on the demand side was insufficient, and the market shipments were average. Merchants carefully followed up on low prices when picking up goods. The lithium hydroxide market transactions were mainly long-term contract orders, and the spot market atmosphere was light. Holders stimulated orders at low prices, and the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations weakened.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on December 26th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 95800.00, a decrease of 22.37% compared to December 1st (123400.00). The lithium carbonate market declined in December, weakening support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, current cost support is weak, downstream procurement is slow to follow up, market trading enthusiasm is not high, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market was operating weakly in December. From December 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers first rose from 6787 yuan/ton and then fell to 6775 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.18% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 0.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.52%.

At the beginning of the month, some regions experienced an increase in freight rates, which led to a slight increase in delivery prices. However, the factory’s shipment situation was weak, with actual orders mainly operating at the low-end. The domestic ethanol market is operating weakly. In the first half of the month, the weather conditions in some areas caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in enterprise orders and prices. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations. In mid month, snowfall affects delivery time, prices remain stable, orders are shipped, and transportation vehicles are difficult to find. The overall weakness of the domestic ethanol market is mainly due to consolidation. As the end of the month approaches, the domestic ethanol market is currently weak in supply and demand, with some regions experiencing a recovery in equipment and average demand.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. In mid December, the market volume of corn in the production area continued to increase. In addition, the new season corn was once again abundant, and the domestic corn market supply became more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories were relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continued to be weak. Under the strong market supply and weak demand pressure, the domestic corn market prices continued to operate weakly.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. There is sufficient ethanol supply in the East China region. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in December. The ethyl acetate project in Anhui region is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the transportation and delivery situation between regions in terms of supply and demand are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 112.50 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 35.34% year-on-year. On December 24th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Weakened upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a slight decline, with weakened cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1772.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1778.75 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.27% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level. The market price is 702.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell 35.55% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market has been consolidating and operating, with spot prices stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.54% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market is experiencing a price stalemate this week. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises continues to rise. The weekly industry operating rate is about 90%, and the weekly production has increased synchronously, while the market supply remains abundant. The maintenance plan for future equipment is insufficient, and the mentality of petrochemical plants is weak. The overall inventory position of EVA is on the rise, and merchants tend to offer at a discounted price. Recently, EVA suppliers have shown poor support for spot goods. Upstream ethylene levels out, while vinyl acetate tends to be stronger, providing decent cost support for EVA.

The weak performance on the demand side of EVA this week continues. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials in the early stage have played a role in driving investment, and the purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected. On exchange trading is concentrated on low-end offers, and the logic of buyers buying on dips remains unchanged. Lack of market buying sentiment and resistance to the return of high priced goods. The overall stocking operation on the market places orders as needed, and the acceptance of high priced goods by enterprises is average. Prices are deadlocked due to market pull from different directions.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA price has remained stagnant this week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load is high, and downstream demand is weak. Market confidence has weakened, and the profitability of enterprises has significantly declined. As the end of the year approaches, the expectation for increased consumption in the future is relatively low, and the market is unable to change the bearish guidance situation. It is expected that the EVA market will remain stagnant and consolidating in the short term.

The price of ortho xylene has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the price of ortho xylene was 7600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.33% compared to the price of ortho xylene at 7500 yuan/ton on December 8th last weekend. The price of mixed xylene raw materials has increased, and the cost of ortho xylene has increased; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, while the market for plasticizers fluctuated and stabilized. Downstream demand rebounded, and the price of ortho xylene rose this week.

Raw material mixed xylene rebounds and rises

According to the analysis system of mixed xylene commodity market in Shengyishe, as of December 21, the price of mixed xylene was 6940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29% compared to the price of mixed xylene on December 14, which was 6920 yuan/ton; Compared to the quoted price of 6900 yuan/ton on December 11th, it has increased by 0.58%. In December, the price of naphtha stopped falling and stabilized, while the price of mixed xylene increased. The cost of raw materials for ortho xylene increased, and the upward momentum of ortho xylene increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market stops falling and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7475 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% from the price of 7400 yuan/ton on December 14th. This week, the plasticizer market has stabilized strongly, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price of phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for demand for ortho benzene has increased.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and increased this week, leading to an increase in the cost of adjacent xylene; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises, the market for phthalic anhydride rebounds, and downstream demand for ortho benzene rebounds. In the future, the cost of ortho benzene has increased, demand growth has rebounded, and the ortho benzene industry chain market is favorable. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has been operating weakly. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20700 yuan/ton on December 18th, with a price increase or decrease of -2.97% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In mid December, the weakness of PA66 continued, and spot prices remained weak and consolidated. Overall, the recent market situation has seen a slight decrease in spot prices for various brands, a narrow decrease in production line operating rates, and an overall stable industry load of around 63%. The on-site supply of goods is moderate, the inventory position is average, the pricing operation of enterprises is cautious, and the support from suppliers is average. Terminal enterprises still rely on maintaining production as their main source of goods, with on-site stocking centered around essential needs, and weak support from the demand side for spot goods. On the upstream side, the tight supply of domestic hexamethylene diamine has eased, and there are still expectations of supply relaxation on the market, leading to a general stagflation adjustment in prices. Early bearish guidance in the adipic acid market, followed by consolidation after a price drop. At present, the market is mainly volatile, and the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is average. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

In mid December, the spot price of PA66 showed a weak consolidation. The fluctuation of raw material prices has provided moderate support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a stable and stable load, with average inventory positions. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from December 11th to 18th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9325 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year increase of 1.36%. The raw material pure benzene oscillates during operation, providing stable cost support. Downstream demand is average and often followed up on demand. Some companies are temporarily not shipping, coupled with good follow-up of chemical fiber orders last week, resulting in a decrease in factory low price quotations and a decrease in market low prices.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has seen a narrow rise, and crude oil futures have continued to rise in the early stage, providing some psychological support for on exchange transactions. Downstream customers are buying at low prices, and the pace of spot transactions is still acceptable. Negotiations are rising. As of December 18th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6845.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 62.86%, which is+0.92% higher than last week. The weekly production is 95300 tons, which is+01400 tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market first fell and then rose, with upstream pure benzene prices rebounding. The cost side stopping the decline has supported downstream confidence. Although the supply of caprolactam has increased, the trading atmosphere in the caprolactam market has improved due to low inventory in the early stage and high inventory levels remaining low. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene market is expected to be strong and supported by consolidation, and downstream demand for cyclohexanone is expected to break through. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market may recover and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price of nitric acid on December 11th this week was 2300 yuan/ton, and on December 8th it was 2250 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.17%.

On December 11th, the price of concentrated nitric acid was weak, with an increase in upstream supply and no significant increase in downstream demand. Transactions were mainly orders, with a focus on market transactions.

During the period of 12.11-12.15, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 0.42%, the downstream aniline price remained stable, the TDI price decreased by 0.6%, and the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.46%. At present, the supply of goods in the market has increased, and the demand in downstream industries is average. Acid prices continue to decline due to weak transactions. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may mainly fluctuate weakly.

At the beginning of the week, information about the delayed arrival of phenol at the port was released, causing traders to push up their offers. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market was quoted at 7765 yuan/ton on December 7th, and at 7867 yuan/ton on December 13th, an increase of 1.3%.

On the 11th, the inventory of phenol at Jiangyin Port was 13000 tons. The originally planned shipment to Hengyang in the middle of last week was delayed, and the goods were prioritized to be sent to Tianjin and other places. However, there was no replenishment of imported cargo. At that time, the East China market showed a tense situation, and trading quotes continued to rise. After rising for two consecutive days, the upward trend slightly eased on Wednesday.

The upward trend of raw materials has been supported, with pure benzene hitting the bottom and rebounding this week. The negotiated price has been pushed up to 6825 yuan/ton, and last week’s offer was at 6700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The upward trend of pure benzene is related to the strengthening of downstream styrene market, and the strong upward support of the market.

The downstream domestic bisphenol A market has been poorly negotiated, fluctuating downward, with a lack of favorable terminal conditions and sufficient spot supply. Traders have increased their willingness to ship according to market trends. The negotiated price in the East China region has reached 9850-9950 yuan/ton, while in other regions, there is a lack of market and actual order negotiations are sparse.

From the perspective of the business society, there is insufficient replenishment of phenol cargo in the short term, and the probability of domestic trade cargo arriving at port on weekends is high. In the near future, it is necessary to focus on the arrival time of imported cargo. The purchasing power on the demand side is average, and it is expected to maintain rigid demand as the main demand. If the imported goods successfully arrive in the market, there may be downward expectations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 4th to 11th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6787 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 0.37%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.18%. The weather conditions in some areas have caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in prices for enterprise orders. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 37.97% operating in East China and 95.13% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 18.65%; In the short term, domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of restoring the ethyl acetate factory. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, there is a bearish cost situation and significant regional differences in supply and demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience weak consolidation in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, with the average market price rising from 95.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 112.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 18.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 35.34% over the weekend. On December 10th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1760.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1763.75 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.85% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a high level. The market price is 727.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 30.05% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have slightly increased, and downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

From the trend chart of para xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and the same as the same period last year.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Recently, the international crude oil price trend has declined. As of the 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.34 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.05 per barrel. The main reason is that the market is increasingly concerned about future energy demand, and the news is bearish for the crude oil market, with oil prices falling for six consecutive trading days. On the other hand, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) regularly releases inventory data. Especially with the surge in gasoline inventories, this has exacerbated the bearish sentiment towards fuel demand in the market. The crude oil market has declined, and the domestic xylene market prices remain weak.

The domestic PTA spot market is mainly volatile, with an average price of 5694 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, an increase of 0.33% from the price of 5675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. From the recent changes in PTA equipment, it can be seen that the PTA equipment has been operating relatively steadily this week, with an industry operating rate of over 80%. The downstream polyester production load is above 87%, and cost support is weakening. The polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with the consumption of early raw material stocking as the main focus, resulting in a stalemate in transaction focus. The trading atmosphere in the short fiber market is light, with many traders offering discounts on prices, and customers from yarn factories have limited orders and low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has moderately decreased to around 75%, coupled with low profits from raw fabrics, it is expected that a small amount of raw materials will be purchased at a low price by the end of the month. The unfavorable downstream market is bearish for the xylene market, and the PX market trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating in the range. In the early stages of downstream PTA maintenance equipment, new equipment is being restarted and put into operation. With the decrease in downstream polyester production load, the PTA market is under pressure, and it is expected that the terminal’s sustained replenishment may be difficult to sustain. It is expected that the market price of xylene may slightly decline in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7926.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of this month at 7906.50 yuan/ton. The market for refined hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated and rose before falling back.

As of November 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7856.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from 7819.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market for locally refined straight run naphtha fluctuated and rose before falling back.

Product: In November, the price of ground refined naphtha first increased and then decreased. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7700-7900 yuan/ton. The gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, with terminal demand procurement being the main focus, and there is a lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals. The overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak, with sluggish trading and refineries lowering prices for shipments.

Upstream: In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and limited support for the domestic naphtha market.

Downstream: The toluene market continued to decline in November, with toluene prices at 6900 yuan/ton on November 1st and 6680 yuan/ton on November 29th, a decrease of 3.19% compared to the beginning of the month. The mixed xylene market continued to decline in November. On November 29th, the price of mixed xylene was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.68% from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price trend of para xylene in November declined, with the domestic ex factory price of para xylene at 8300 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton.

According to energy analysts from Business Society, the international crude oil price has rebounded, and local refined naphtha is actively pushing up. In addition, a small amount of demand from local refined reforming units is currently being released, and it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will experience a slight increase in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in November. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.88%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 17.11% year-on-year. On November 29th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 37.06, a decrease of 0.17 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 23.04% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a significant drop in prices in November, and their inventory levels were average.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in November. The price of propylene first increased from 7050.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7370.75 yuan/ton on November 8th, an increase of 4.54%, and then dropped to 7105.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.60%. In November, the overall price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 0.78%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.12% at the end of the month. The average upstream cost support has a bearish impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the market situation for downstream neopentyl glycol slightly declined in November. The market price of neopentyl glycol has dropped from 10525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.60%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 8.64% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to early December, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The downstream market for new pentanediol has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market has risen first and then fallen, with average cost support. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

The domestic bisphenol A market first suppressed and then rose, mainly due to mid month equipment maintenance and unplanned parking, which tightened the supply of bisphenol A in the market and drove it up. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, on November 1st, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was quoted at 10062 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, it was quoted at 9450 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the market once again rose to 10137 yuan/ton, with a monthly amplitude of 7.28%.

Region/ Price on November 1st/ Price on November 15th/ November 30th

East China region/ 10100./9550./10150

Shandong region/ 9900./9400./10100

Entering November, the two major downstream epoxy resins and PC of bisphenol A have weakened due to fluctuations, and the high levels of phenol and acetone at the raw material end have rebounded. The market sentiment of bisphenol A has weakened, and some factories and intermediaries have increased their intention to reduce inventory. Low price quotations are frequent, and the bisphenol A market has fallen from 10062 at the beginning of the month to 9450 yuan/ton at the end of the 15th day.

In the second half of the month, accompanied by a decrease in market inventory, domestic equipment malfunctions and some equipment shutdowns for maintenance. Among them, Cangzhou Dahua experienced a malfunction shutdown on November 12, Jiangsu Ruiheng Phase I experienced a malfunction shutdown on November 17, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I equipment shutdown for maintenance on November 21, and Changchun Chemical’s 270000 tons/year equipment shutdown in the first half of the month. The supply side is expected to tighten significantly, and in the second half of the month, both raw materials will rise, supported by cost side support, The bisphenol A market in East China has expanded to 10100-10150 yuan/ton. Quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Market forecast: In terms of supply, the shutdown and maintenance of bisphenol A in December will decrease, and the maintenance equipment in November will stabilize operation in December. Additionally, three new bisphenol A equipment sets are planned to be put into operation. Considering the supporting equipment, there will still be a significant increase in the supply chain in December. On the demand side, there is a lack of significant benefits for downstream epoxy resins and PC terminals. Despite the expectation of new equipment being put into operation, the growth rate of demand is far lower than the supply expectation. From a cost perspective, the short-term fluctuations in the operation of the dual raw materials phenol and acetone are the main factors. Considering the continuous loss of bisphenol A in the early stage, the impact of cost on bisphenol A may be relatively small. Business Society predicts that, considering the many variables in the production of new devices and the difficulty in achieving significant positive demand, the bisphenol A market in East China may show a trend of first rising and then falling.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline in November. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 123400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.49% compared to the average price of 159200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 134000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.08% compared to the average price of 169800 yuan/ton on November 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate market remained weak in early November, with prices showing a trend of continuous decline. In terms of supply, the production lines of some large factories have recovered from maintenance, with a significant increase in production scheduling and operating rates, and an increase in the supply of lithium carbonate in the market. Combined with the high prices of lithium carbonate in the early stage, many enterprises have accumulated a large amount of lithium carbonate inventory. In order to reduce costs and recover funds, enterprises gradually clear their inventory, leading to a continuous increase in supply. The spot market, on the other hand, is mainly dominated by long order buying and selling, while the volume of individual orders is relatively small, resulting in a continuous decline in prices.

In terms of demand, the purchasing willingness of downstream markets is still not high, mainly based on long-term contracts and customer supply guarantee, and the purchasing willingness for individual orders is relatively low. Although the electric vehicle market is still growing, the growth rate has slowed down, coupled with weak demand growth in the energy storage market, resulting in lower than expected demand for lithium carbonate, further lowering prices.

In late November, the decline in lithium carbonate prices widened. On the one hand, it was affected by the significant decline in futures prices, and on the other hand, the market supply and demand imbalance led to a downward trend in prices. The supply side saw a surge of 84.5% to 16791 tons of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in October, leading to a continuous increase in lithium carbonate supply. As the end of the month approaches, the supply side of the market is facing even more difficulties. It is understood that a large salt lake factory has announced a release of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate. The price will be settled based on the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate from November 28th to December 25th, and a certain discount will be given based on the purchase volume, which will continue to put pressure on the price of lithium carbonate.

In terms of demand, downstream energy storage demand remained weak in late November, while positive electrode material companies remained in a wait-and-see attitude. In the downward trend of prices, there is currently no willingness to buy individual orders, and market transactions continue to be lackluster. Although trading companies have significantly lowered the sales price of lithium carbonate, market feedback shows that transactions are still relatively small. In addition, the recent decline in the premium between lithium carbonate spot and 2401 contract futures has made it difficult for some lithium carbonate trading companies to significantly discount sales, and their trading volume is also difficult to improve.

The lithium hydroxide market is operating weakly, with upstream lithium carbonate prices continuing to decline in November and upstream spodumene concentrate prices operating weakly. Cost support for the lithium hydroxide market is weakened, coupled with poor performance on the demand side. Market transactions are mainly long-term contract orders, and the atmosphere for bulk cargo transactions is weak. Downstream demand for high nickel materials is weak, and the enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is not high. The cautious and urgent need to follow up is the main trend. The trading atmosphere in the lithium hydroxide market is flat, The market is sluggish.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate has mainly experienced a narrow decline. In November, the price of lithium iron phosphate fell by 15.34%, with a decrease of 12000 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream restocking is on demand, with poor demand and average stocking willingness. Upstream lithium carbonate experienced a significant decline in November, with limited cost support, sufficient supply, and slow shipment, putting overall market pressure on operation.

In terms of futures, the basis of lithium carbonate spot futures has widened in mid November, and some traders have engaged in basis trading, reducing prices and selling spot inventory, which has to some extent triggered bearish sentiment. Subsequently, lithium carbonate futures prices plummeted multiple times, hitting the limit down twice and continuously breaking new historical lows. On November 30th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 110000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 111350 yuan/ton and a closing price of 106200 yuan/ton. The daily decline was 5.81%, with a trading volume of 579000 lots and a position of 145034 lots.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the overall inventory of the lithium carbonate industry is still high, and the market circulation is still much higher than the actual downstream demand. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is maintained, and some smelting enterprises find it difficult to ship, with prices continuously declining. In addition, some traders have engaged in low price selling behavior, which has amplified the bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to decline under pressure in the short term.