According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 17100 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 18520 yuan / ton, with an increase of 8.30% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 1.06%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 29:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-17900 yuan / ton

East China, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-18000 yuan / ton

South China, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-18000 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded strongly. At present, the external quotation of major manufacturers is stable, and the supply is reduced, which has boosted the mentality of trade market operators. Subsequently, the quotation of traders is stable and upward. Coupled with the current low inventory at the social level, the market continues to push up. However, the actual transaction price needs to be further followed up.

In the middle of June, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to rise. Most of the major manufacturers supported their prices, and traders followed suit. The overall market atmosphere was strong. On the other hand, the overall performance of downstream demand is slightly modest, with small order replenishment as the main.

In late June, the domestic aggregate MDI market was sorted out at a high level, the follow-up of actual orders was very limited, and the atmosphere was stalemate. The manufacturer mainly supports the price, and the supply is relatively small. The downstream customers are in conflict with the high price, and just need to replenish the small order. The overall purchase desire is low.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price in June, pure benzene was mainly subject to shock consolidation in the whole month.

In terms of aniline, the current high cost has supported the increase of aniline for many times. However, Shanghai Lianheng put in an overhaul plan in late June. If the overhaul plan is implemented, part of the contract volume will be released to the market, which has a certain negative impact on the market.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

The MDI device has a multi storage maintenance plan, and the supply is expected to shrink. According to the MDI analysts of the business community, the domestic MDI market is mainly in a stalemate.

In June, the domestic asphalt market rose first and then fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 4681 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 4607 yuan / ton. The price in the month fell by 1.58% and increased by 35.63% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic asphalt market maintained a rising trend. In terms of regions, the price increases in North China, Shandong and Northeast China were obvious, mainly supported by the cost of crude oil, and the downstream rigid demand was ok, so the market quotation continued to rise; Other regions are mainly driven by the price rise of Sinopec, in which Sinopec in East China increased by 150 yuan / ton, and Sinopec in South China, Sichuan and Chongqing increased by 100 yuan / ton.

In the middle of May, domestic asphalt prices rose first and then fell. In terms of regions, the main areas of increase include East China, South China, southwest and Northwest China. Sinopec’s price rose by 50 yuan / ton, driving the market price upward. The falling regions include Shandong and North China, mainly due to the fall of crude oil prices, the outflow of some low-cost sources, and the price reduction and shipment of some major traders, which led to the decline of market prices.

In late June, the domestic asphalt market fell, mainly due to the fall in crude oil prices, the outflow of some low-cost sources, and the price reduction and shipment of some major traders, which led to a decline in market prices.

As of June 28, the factory quotation summary of major asphalt manufacturers in Shandong:

Enterprise, Device, Price

HSBC petrochemical, A 2.3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit has been started, with a daily output of 2000 tons ., 5180 yuan / ton

Jincheng petrochemical, 1500 tons per day ., 4300 yuan / ton

Kelida., There are two sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, one set of 3.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and one set of 1.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, 4700 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical, A set of 3million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is currently converted to residual oil, and the inventory will not be shipped temporarily, with a daily output of 2500-3000 tons ., 5200 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical, Normal shipment ., 4940 yuan / ton

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

The international crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range, the asphalt spot market was slightly flat, and there was no obvious contradiction between short-term supply and demand. The asphalt analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly sorted out.

In June, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose and fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11610 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of June 27), the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone was 10900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.12% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 7.07%.

At the beginning of June, the market price of cyclohexanone continued the rising trend of last month, and the price was still high. With the start-up of maintenance devices, the supply increased, the shipment was affected, and the price of cyclohexanone continued to decline.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market was strong and rising, the price of raw material pure benzene was rising, and the cyclohexanone market rose significantly under the strong support of the cost.

In the middle of May, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose and fell, mainly due to the increase of supply. The cost support is stable. In terms of supply, Luxi and Lunan are exported, the market supply increases, and manufacturers actively sell goods at a profit. The market price then fell.

In late June, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline, the spot price of raw material pure benzene fell back, the cost side was lack of support, the downstream chemical fiber demand was weak, the cyclohexanone plant in southern Shandong was restarted, the market supply was abundant, the shipment was obviously blocked, and the price continued to fall.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of June 27:

region ., Price

East China, 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China, 11300-11500 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region, 10700-10800 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of raw material pure benzene rises first and then falls, following the change of crude oil. Crude oil fell deeply, the external market weakened significantly, and the external support of pure benzene weakened.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam continued to fall. The upstream cost support is weakened, the downstream polymerization plant is reduced, caprolactam is under two-way pressure, and the northern spot supply is abundant recently, the overall confidence in the market is weak, and the price is falling rapidly.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

In the short term, pure benzene operates at a high level, the cost support is still stable, and cyclohexanone has lost money, and the demand may be expected to increase. The cyclohexanone analysts of business agency predict that the short-term decline of cyclohexanone market is limited.

According to the data of business agency, on June 24, the average p value of oil based ethylene glycol was 4900 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, a year-on-year decrease of 5.04%.

In terms of units, the 400000 ton unit of Sinopec refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down yesterday. It is estimated that the ethylene glycol unit of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down on June 18 due to an accident; Shanxi woneng 300000 ton plant was shut down on June 15, with a plan of about 20 days; Xinjiang Tianye 300000 ton plant is planned to restart at the end of June; The 450000 ton unit of far east alliance is planned to be restarted in early July.

On the upstream side, there is a game between supply and demand of crude oil. Brent and WTI crude oil are still in a serious spot premium state, and the oil supply is still as tight as before. However, it is expected that the increase in inventories and investors’ concern that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike may plunge the US economy into recession, thus curbing the demand for fuel.

The supply of goods in the ethylene glycol market is sufficient, and the market mentality is generally bearish, resulting in a depressed atmosphere of goods inquiry and low intention of terminal buyers to receive goods. As of June 23, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1.247 million tons, an increase of 68500 tons over last Thursday, an increase of 5.81%, and an increase of 29600 tons over this Monday, an increase of 2.43%. There is no sign that the inventory will decline significantly in the short term. Buyers and end users are not keen on purchasing imported goods at present. Downstream demand is sluggish, polyester and polyester production and sales are still light, the trading atmosphere is poor, and the actual orders are generally promoted. Traders maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Forecast: Although the current ethylene glycol price is close to the support level, the prospect of ethylene glycol market is still weak due to high port inventory and concerns about demand.

The price of orthobenzene rose strongly this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of benzene price of business club that the price of benzene rose this week, the price of xylene in the external market rose violently, and the domestic market of xylene rose strongly. As of June 20, the price of orthobenzene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 5.68% from 8800 yuan / ton on June 12 last week; Compared with 8600 yuan / ton of orthobenzene at the end of May, the price increased by 8.14%. The cost of neighboring benzene rose this week, and the market of neighboring benzene rose strongly this week.

Mixed xylene prices fell at a high level this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of mixed xylene in the business community that the high crude oil price this week fluctuated and adjusted, and the high mixed xylene price fell back. As of June 19, the price of mixed xylene was 8860 yuan / ton, down 3.70% from 9200 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, the high price of mixed xylene fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the downward pressure on o-xylene increased.

The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

As can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of business club, the price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of June 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8675 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from the price of 8500 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The price of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the downstream market of o-xylene slowly recovered.

Outlook

According to the analysts of o-xylene data of business agency, the high crude oil price fell this week, the price of mixed xylene fell violently, and the raw material cost of o-xylene fell; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the downstream market of orthobenzene slowly recovered. In general, the cost of o-xylene decreased, the downstream demand recovered, the external price of o-xylene fluctuated and rose, and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene is still under increasing downward pressure. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will stabilize in the future.

This week (June 13-17), the domestic ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 2.33%, mainly because the raw material acetic acid fell sharply, major manufacturers lowered prices one after another, and the retail prices of major factories in Shandong continued to fall, which dampened market confidence, the market turnover was average, affecting the market mentality, and the downstream demand was weak. At the weekend, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the domestic acetic acid fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic acid fell as much as 23.9%. Although the operating rate of acetic acid is not high, and the inventory of upstream factories is low, the overall sales pressure is not great, but due to the weak overall demand of downstream factories, the willingness of downstream factories to purchase is poor. It is also when acetic acid is pulled to a relatively high point, and the downstream resistance is increasing, so the high callback risk is intensified.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the decline of acetic acid is more obvious, and the price of downstream ethyl acetate is relatively strong. At present, the curve is close, indicating that the profit of downstream ethyl acetate enterprises is expected to improve.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable this week, and the operating rate was flat last week. At present, the operating rate of the industry is roughly 60%. The main large factories in Shandong maintained normal operation. This week, most manufacturers generally lowered their ex factory prices by about 200 yuan / ton. The manufacturer reduced the price and arranged the warehouse, dampening the market confidence. Some manufacturers in South China have reduced their production load. At present, the inventory pressure of the manufacturers is obvious, and the market expectation is weak. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

From the demand side, the downstream procurement generally slowed down. This week, the purchase intention of dealers and downstream factories was weak, and the downstream orders contracted, resulting in a significant slowdown in the delivery speed. There are few transactions in the market. At present, the market mainly deals at the low-end price of small orders. In addition to some downstream stocking demand, the overall market demand remains depressed.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club believe that the raw material acetic acid has retreated significantly, and the cost is obviously bad. It is also difficult to see much in the supply and demand side. Transactions at the low end of the market are better than those at the high end. Therefore, it is expected that ethyl acetate may still have downward space.

According to the monitoring data of business club, as of June 21, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5733 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton lower than that on June 15, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5866 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.27%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the late June period (6.15-6.21), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was first adjusted and operated at a high level, and then the price was reduced by a narrow margin. Since the last ten days of June 15, the overall high level of domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been stable and consolidated. The overall downstream demand is cautious and the trading atmosphere is general. At the time of the 17th, I heard that the actual transaction of dimethyl carbonate on the floor had a small margin of profit transfer, and the buying gas was light. From the 20th, some dimethyl carbonate factories reduced the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 21st, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China has been around 5700-6000 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of on-site trading has not been boosted. The downstream is waiting for the market, and it is mainly for replenishment and stock up.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent (6.13-6.20) propylene oxide market fell. Recently, the raw material propylene market rose first and then weakened. There is a certain support from the cost side. The factory shipments are flat, the downstream demand is light, and the reduction purchase is mainly followed up. The market mentality is cautious. On the 17th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10500-10600 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 20, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11033.33 yuan / ton, 2.07% lower than that on June 13. At present, the cost side support is acceptable, and the supply and demand side support is weak. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be under pressure in the short term.

Future trend analysis

At present, the supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate in the market is general, the demand side is weak as a whole, and the trading atmosphere is cold. The dimethyl carbonate datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak, mainly for consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

From June 10 to June 17, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly in the whole week, from 7947 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8071 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a weekly increase of 1.56%.

In terms of crude oil, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran. There is little hope that Iranian oil will return to the market. The expectation of tight global oil supply still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world triggered concerns about economic recession. This week, international oil prices fell broadly. As of June 17, Brent fell by $8.89 / barrel, or 7.29%; WTI fell $11.11/barrel, or 9.21%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike of 75 basis points higher than expected, which was the largest interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the past 30 years. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectations of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. Both WTI and Brent of international crude oil futures fell to a two-week low.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On June 8, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical offers 9400 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 9800 yuan / ton, and Weilian chemical offers 9503 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and pure benzene in the external market fell broadly this week, with bad fundamentals and limited support for the industrial chain. Sinopec has not adjusted the price of pure benzene this week, but most local refining enterprises have lowered it. In terms of supply, the centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene has come to an end, and new devices have been put into operation. The inventory of pure benzene in East China has started to rise slightly recently, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in the future. In the downstream, the recent performance of styrene is weak. On June 10, the price was 11100 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 10900 yuan / ton, down 1.8% compared with last week. The market transaction is general, and the spot price is slightly lower. Affected by multiple negative effects, the pure benzene market began to decline this week. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude benzene, although the industrial chain weakened as a whole this week, the bidding price of crude benzene still increased slightly this week. In Shandong, the price was 8070-8075 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. As for coking enterprises, after the increase of coke, supported by the recovery of profits, the coking enterprises started well recently, and the overall supply of crude benzene was relatively stable. Affected by the recent rise in the price of pure benzene, the downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises have started to operate relatively high recently, and their demand for crude benzene is acceptable. However, under the pressure of the overall downward trend of the industrial chain, it is expected that there will be some room for correction of crude benzene prices in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 17, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. It was mainly purchased in the downstream. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly arranged and delivered by contracted customers. The number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, and the upstream remains high, The price of lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, and the cost pressure remains.

Upstream lithium carbonate: on June 16, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton). On June 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton).

Chemical commodity index: on June 17, the bulk commodity price index BPI was 1195 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 11.02% from 1343 points (October 19, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 81.06% from 660 points, the lowest point on February 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business club, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main factor in the short term, and the price fluctuation range is small. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1283.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1293.33 yuan / ton, up 0.78%. The current price fell 3.00% month on month, and the current price rose 0.26% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde is rising after falling recently, and the market continues to explore this week. As of June 16, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1260-1320 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has risen in a narrow range. Supported by the cost, formaldehyde has tentatively risen. It is difficult for downstream demand to improve. It is just needed to purchase. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market is slightly driven by the cost.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has risen recently. The continuous high price of raw coal has led to a good atmosphere in the whole industrial chain. At the same time, the high volatility of the crude oil market has also led to the rise of the chemical market on the macro level. However, after the lower receiving price rose slightly, the rising oil price led to a shortage of return transport capacity, and there is still room for freight to rise. The demand side performance was average, and the methanol spot turned to be stable and wait-and-see in the middle and late weeks of the week.

This week, the methanol market rose. Driven by the rising cost, the formaldehyde manufacturers intended to increase the quotation, but the operation of the downstream plate plant did not improve. The demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited, and the market transaction was general. It was difficult to increase the formaldehyde price, so the formaldehyde market was explored slightly.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has gone up, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants has continued to be weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency predict that the recent formaldehyde price rise in Shandong is mainly shock.

According to the monitoring of business club, adipic acid in China continued to rise this week (6.6-10). The weekly increase was 0.9%. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend is 12000-12300 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the price of upstream pure benzene rose after the festival, which brought support from the cost side. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the listed price of the manufacturer increased to support the market, while the terminal demand was still cautious, and the supply and demand remained basically balanced, which was also the fundamental reason why the adipic acid price did not rise significantly.

In terms of market supply, this week, adipic acid operating rate remained at the previous level, and currently remains at about 60%. At the beginning of the month, the listed part of the large factory was increased by about 500 yuan. The manufacturer’s inventory pressure is OK, mainly due to price hikes. In terms of commencement, temporary maintenance of some Shenma units this week; The load of Taiyuan Chemical Plant was reduced and started, about 80%; The load of Zhonghao unit is reduced to 80%; Hongding and Haili equipment continue to stop. There is no great pressure on the overall market supply.

Trend of adipic acid industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the adipic acid industrial chain showed a pattern of strong upstream and weak middle and downstream. The upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene increased to varying degrees, especially pure benzene, but adipic acid remained weak, indicating that the manufacturer’s profits fell slightly. In addition, the downstream PA66 continued its decline this week, and the terminal maintained a weak level.

Market trend of pure benzene upstream adipic acid

Market trend of cyclohexanone upstream adipic acid

Recently, pure benzene has increased significantly. After the festival, the manufacturer adjusted the price twice. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the weekly increase of pure benzene was about 5.46%. In addition, cyclohexanone rose well this week, rising by 2.93%. Bring cost guidance to adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: adipic acid downstream is still relatively weak. Downstream procurement continued to slow down. According to the monitoring of business agency, PA66 in the downstream of adipic acid fell by 2.9% this week. Due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry has decreased recently, but the overall range is limited. The spot supply in the market is abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. Although the health incidents in East China have been greatly alleviated and the logistics situation in many places has gradually recovered, the demand of domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The transaction on the floor declined, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he continued to give up profits. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business community believes that the upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone support is obvious. The manufacturer has a strong price support mentality, which will further form a strong support for the price of adipic acid. The pressure on the superimposed supply side is not large, and it is expected that the adipic acid price may still rebound in the near future. However, considering the weak demand, the market growth should be treated with caution.

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly in the first ten days of June. As of June 10, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 3275 yuan / ton, down 2.24% from 3350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In the first ten days of June, the spot price of methanol rose slightly, supported by the cost. According to the business agency, as of June 10, the price of methanol was 2657 yuan / ton, up 1.53% from 2617 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of the downstream refrigerant market of chloroform are shrinking, the price is weak, and the demand for chloroform is weak.

Analysts of the methane chloride data of the business society expect that the imbalance between supply and demand will be difficult to change in the short term, but in the later period, with the arrival of the peak air conditioning season, the demand for chloroform will increase or stop falling.

This week (June 2 to June 10), the market price of 1# electrolytic manganese rose. The spot market price in East China was 16550 yuan / ton last weekend and 16800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.51%.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market maintained the upward trend of price support, and the external quotation was basically settled. The manufacturers’ demand for goods was still concentrated on semi carbonic acid and Gabon ore. the transaction volume of semi carbonic acid in South Africa rose to 45 yuan / ton degree, that in Gabon was 59 yuan / ton degree, and that in Australia rose to 59.5 yuan / ton degree. The southern market also rose, and the price was basically in line with that in the north. On the whole, the downstream manufacturers are also relatively passive, mainly taking goods on demand.

The electrolytic manganese market rose slightly this week. The mainstream market price this week was 15400-15600 yuan / ton, up about 300 yuan / ton compared with last week. In terms of steel bidding, on the 7th, the bidding price of electrolytic manganese of North China steel plant in June was still 15800 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous month, but the overall quantity decreased by 250 tons compared with the bidding in May. The bidding price of electrolytic manganese for steel plants in Hebei is 16200 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton compared with that in May. The bidding price of steel has boosted market confidence. This week, the market price has increased slightly, but the overall transaction situation is general, and the market trading is relatively cold. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the manufacturers’ price support mentality is still strong. It is expected that the market price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, with limited upside space.

In terms of manganese and silicon: the trend of domestic silicon and manganese is good this week. Following the recovery trend of black and coking coal, the short-term high price of about 8650 yuan / ton hit again from the front line of 8500 yuan / ton, which is better than the spot end, while the spot end is restricted by the steel bidding price in June. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia region (the specification is femn68si18) was around 8200-8250 yuan / ton on June 10, and the average market price was 8225 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from Monday.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week fell from 15866.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 15366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.15%. On June 9, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 79.53, down 0.5 points from yesterday, down 24.67% from the highest point of 105.58 in the cycle (2021-09-16), and up 123.84% from the lowest point of 35.53 on December 11, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 15400 yuan / ton, down 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde made an ex factory offer of 15500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde had a sales quotation of 15200 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, the propylene market fell slightly this week, and the price fell from 8080.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7930.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.86%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 17500.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.96%. The neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream demand was good, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of June, the market trend of isobutyraldehyde may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of business club believes that the isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a small shock and decline in the short-term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 9, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was 22080 yuan / ton, which was 1380 yuan / ton higher than the price on June 7, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 20700 yuan / ton), or 6.67%. Compared with the price on june1,2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC is 22560 yuan / ton), the price is reduced by 480 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic organosilicon DMC market was generally weak and downward. On the first day of construction after the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong major manufacturers continued to adjust the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC downward, with an adjustment range of 1400 yuan / ton and a reference price of 20000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. So far, the organosilicon DMC has fallen into the era of 20000 yuan, and the quotations of other factories are mostly around 21000-22000 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere in the venue is weak, Some factories closed their offers without reporting. On the 7th, the performance of pre orders received by leading manufacturers after the festival was general, and the organosilicon DMC was also significantly reduced. The quotation was around 20500 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the organosilicon DMC was narrowed, around 20000-21000 yuan / ton. On the 8th, the market finally ushered in a turnaround. The quotation of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton, and that of some other monomer factories was increased by 500 yuan / ton. In the face of the long-standing low market situation, the organosilicon DMC industry had a strong desire to rise, and the voices of price support and wait-and-see coexisted. On the 9th, the price of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was increased by a wide margin again, and the quotation price of organosilicon DMC was increased to 22300 yuan / ton, and most other factories followed the rise, The mainstream market price rose back to around 22000-22500 yuan / ton. At present, the market is still closed, and a single discussion is also common. When the market was low in the early stage, the enthusiasm of some downstream companies to prepare goods has been improved. At present, the market is more cautious after rising.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since June, the domestic metal silicon market has been mainly operating with a slight decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 8, the reference price of metallic silicon was 17090 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.81% compared with that on June 1 (17230 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, whether the organosilicon DMC can be effectively transmitted to the downstream after the rise still needs the support of the demand side and the terminal’s ability to digest raw materials. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market will mainly operate in a large, stable and small way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in the supply and demand side.

On June 8, the acetic anhydride market was strong and stable temporarily

According to the monitoring data of the business club, on June 8, the price of acetic anhydride was strong and stable temporarily, and the market of acetic anhydride was stable temporarily. On June 8, the price of acetic anhydride was 8550.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of acetic anhydride of 8550 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The price of acetic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the overall market of acetic anhydride is stabilizing at a high level.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the price of methanol rebounded and the raw material cost of acetic anhydride rose strongly. Some acetic acid enterprises started their business stably, the supply of acetic acid was stable, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the sales of acetic anhydride was poor. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the customers’ willingness to purchase was general. It was mainly wait-and-see. The pressure of acetic anhydride decline was still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is poor, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride is still strong. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

This week (5.20-5.27), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 14050 yuan / ton, up 1.59% from 13830 yuan / ton on May 20.

The ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises has been raised. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 27, the ex warehouse price of Qilu cis-1,9-polybutadiene of Sinopec North China sales company was 13900 yuan / ton. In addition, the international crude oil was running at a high level and the price of raw butadiene was rising significantly, so the market offer of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose.

This week (5.20-5.27), butadiene prices rose sharply, and the cost side supported again. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the price of butadiene was 10735 yuan / ton, up 6.07% from 10121 yuan / ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market fluctuated upward. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 27, the price of natural rubber was 12910 yuan / ton, up 1.25% from 12750 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the commencement of downstream tires increased slightly to more than 60%, and there was a small replenishment of rubber. The international crude oil price was running at a high level, and the market bullish mentality increased.

Future forecast: the analysts of the business community believe that the rebound in raw material costs is supported, and the downstream start-up is slightly higher. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11633.33 yuan / ton, which was 2.05% higher than that on May 1. It was flat year-on-year in a three-month cycle, down 31.70% compared with the same period last year.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw propylene fell after rising, and the cost support changed from strong to weak. Under the support of the cost side, in addition, most of the on-site devices operated at a slightly low load, the supply side decreased, the shipment was good, the price of propylene oxide rose, and the subsequent price was restrained by the cold demand side. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene gradually fell, and the cost support gradually weakened. During the maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices, the downstream purchase was reduced, and the manufacturers’ inventory was gradually under pressure. The price fell. In the last ten days, the supply side was mainly stable, and the inventory was slowly accumulated. However, the manufacturers’ multi inventory pressure was controllable, which supported the market mentality. The downstream demand was cold, and the market was in a stalemate after a small rise.

Upstream propylene market rose and fell in May. According to the bulk list data of business agency, in May, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then declined. The overall market fell. At the beginning of the month, the market was 8414 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 8070 yuan / ton, a monthly decline of 4.09%.

The monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol showed that on May 30, the reference price of propylene glycol was 13000.00, an increase of 15.04% compared with May 1 (11300.00).

According to the propylene oxide analysts of business agency, propylene is currently in a weak position, the price of liquid chlorine is high, and the cost is supported to a certain extent. The inventory in the northern market is mostly pressureless, which supports the price support mentality of manufacturers. The demand side is waiting to follow up. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

In May, the domestic acetone market generally rose, with three stages respectively: the factory pushed up the market, the downstream demand shrank after phased procurement, and the cost support continued to rise at the end of the month, showing an “n” trend. During the month, the national acetone market rose by 8.63%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5650 yuan / ton on May 1, and 6137 yuan / ton on May 31, an increase of 8.63% in the month. By the end of the month, the offer in East China was about 6050 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6180 yuan / ton, and that in North China and the surrounding areas of Shandong was 6150-6200 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

After the May Day holiday, the port inventory increased, but the factories increased under the pressure of cost. After the holiday, the prices in some regions increased, and the operating rates in some regions increased. The prices before the holiday continued to decline. Many downstream factories did not replenish a large amount of goods. With the increase of upstream raw materials, acetone also increased, and the purchase intention of downstream factories increased. After the holiday, the repair news of Yangzhou Shiyou device, and the expected supply of domestic goods sources decreased, It rose to nearly 6000 yuan / ton in the three working days after the festival. After a round of replenishment, the offer was pushed to a high level. In the new week, the Hong Kong stock exchange continued to replenish a large number of goods, while the pressure of the goods holders increased significantly, and the offer was callback. In addition, the market trading entered a stalemate in the middle of the month, making it difficult to release the floor trading volume. In the later stage, with the continuous rise of international crude oil, the rising cost of pure benzene increased significantly, the phenol and ketone plant theory entered a state of loss, and the plant was also expected to increase. At the end of the month, the terminal MMA plant was replenished. Jiangsu Jiankun’s 150000 T / a MMA plant was planned to be put into operation. After market inquiry, the trading atmosphere was improved. At the end of the month, the pressure on the goods holders was reduced, and the market continued to rise with the help of the factory’s repeated increases.

The downstream bisphenol a market as a whole rose first and then fell. In late May, the bisphenol a market fell significantly. Near the end of the month, the on-site negotiation was 15000-15200 yuan / ton, the participation of low-cost intermediate traders increased, and the terminal factories also had inventory demand. It is expected that the market may improve after the holiday.

At present, the operating rate of acetone unit is close to 90%. Yangzhou Shiyou unit is expected to restart and recover on June 10. Tianjin Zhongsha unit is expected to have short-term maintenance in June. Other units are in normal operation. The supply side of domestic sources of goods has little change. The imported sources of goods are still dominated by contracts, and the replenishment should be close to 50000 tons. At present, the international oil price is high, and the cost is also high. It is still difficult for the factory to make profits, and there is no lack of expectation that the factory will support the price. The business club expects that the domestic acetone market will gradually improve, and the actual order situation will continue to be concerned.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1813 yuan / ton on May 1, and 1720 yuan / ton on May 31. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 5.15% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell after stable fluctuation this month. In the first half of May, the ammonium sulfate market fluctuated at a high level, and the market price rose slightly. As ammonium sulfate continued to rise before the festival, ammonium sulfate inquiries increased after the festival. Downstream enterprises and dealers are mainly cautious. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was mainly high. Urea continued to rise, which was good for ammonium sulfate Market. From the second half of May, the price of ammonium sulfate began to fall. The trading atmosphere on the floor was acceptable, but the new orders were limited. Ammonium sulfate enterprises cut prices slightly. There are many on-site inquiries, but the downstream and dealers are cautious in purchasing, which is inconsistent with high prices. The prices of coking grade and Hexian grade ammonium sulfate have been reduced by shock. As of May 31, the main factory price of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1650 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is about 1600 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of Hexian ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1740-1840 yuan / ton.

Downstream compound fertilizer market this month. The downstream compound fertilizer market was strong at a high level this month. Bullish sentiment increased. As the raw materials of compound fertilizer urea, monoammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer have risen sharply, the cost pressure has increased. Most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are selling at competitive prices, and some enterprises have suspended quotation, mainly issuing early-stage orders.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analysts of the business agency, there is no good news in the market for the time being due to the downstream resistance to the high price of ammonium sulfate and the weakening demand. The high price of ammonium sulfate has dropped. Caprolactam enterprises stopped production for maintenance or planned shutdown for maintenance, and the on-site supply decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate downward.

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of Shandong isooctanol rose in a narrow range this month, from 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.08%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 15.00%.

On May 30, the isooctanol commodity index was 92.16, down 0.73 points from yesterday, down 32.97% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 162.19% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong rose slightly this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

Insufficient upstream support and general downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell this month. The price fell from 8414.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8070.60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.09%, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% compared with the same period last year. The cost support is insufficient. Downstream DOP prices rose in a narrow range, with a downward trend at the end of the month. The DOP price rose from 11775.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 11912.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.20% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose slightly, and the downstream customers had good enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol this month.

Slightly volatile decline in the future

In the middle and early June, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene price has fallen slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream DOP market has a downward trend at the end of the month. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isooctanol has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the domestic isooctanol market may suffer a small shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price fell slightly this month. The average price of the domestic mainstream neopentyl glycol market fell from 17533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 700 yuan / ton, or 3.99%. On May 30, the commodity index of neopentyl glycol was 81.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.71% from the highest point of 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 26.24% from the lowest point of 64.26 on January 3, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Domestic neopentyl glycol market in May

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell slightly this month

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this month. The isobutyraldehyde price rose from 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 20.47%. High level consolidation at the end of the month. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply, which had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the impact of supply and demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and early June, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market was consolidated at a high level at the end of the month, the cost support was good, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand and raw materials.