In December 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market rose in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 186910 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 205410 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 9.9% month on month.

On December 28, the nonferrous index stood at 1219 points, up 10 points from yesterday, down 20.74% from 1538 points (2021-10-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.82% from 607 points, the lowest point on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past six months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and the overall decline.

In terms of the spot market, the overall volatility rose this month. At the end of the year, the manufacturer’s quotation is more cautious, and some enterprises have a strong price mentality. Affected by higher prices, the overall market trading is average. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market as a whole has not changed much, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the market supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. Although the holiday is approaching, the goods preparation before the holiday is average. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

In 2022, the domestic sulphuric acid market will rise first and then fall. At the beginning of the year, the average price of the domestic mainstream sulphuric acid market was 645 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of the mainstream sulphuric acid market was 291.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 54.78%. The lowest price of the whole year was in the middle of September, with a price of 228.00 yuan/ton. The highest price of the whole year was in the middle of April, with a price of 1205.00 yuan/ton. The maximum amplitude of the year was 81.08%.

From the K column chart of sulfuric acid month, the sulfuric acid market will rise first and then fall in 2022. The highest increase was 42.86% in March and the highest decrease was 53.92% in August. On December 25, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 46.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 75.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 46.48% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Review of sulphuric acid market in 2022

The first stage: from the beginning of January to the middle of April, the sulfuric acid market rose sharply. After the Spring Festival, upstream and downstream sulphuric acid enterprises began to work one after another. The upstream sulfur price rose sharply, with strong cost support. The price rose from 2026.67 yuan/ton in early January to 3543.33 yuan/ton in mid April, an increase of 74.84%. The downstream titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand was good. The price of titanium dioxide fluctuates narrowly at about 21000 yuan/ton. The downstream formic acid market rose sharply, with the price rising from 4300.00 yuan/ton in early January to 9633.33 yuan/ton in mid April, up 124.03%. The upstream and downstream make joint efforts, and the price of sulfuric acid rises sharply. The price rose from 645.00 yuan/ton in early January to 1208.33 yuan/ton in mid April, an increase of 87.34%.

The second stage: from mid April to mid September, the sulphuric acid market fell sharply. Downstream market fell rapidly and demand was seriously insufficient. The price of downstream hydrofluoric acid fell from 11550.00 yuan/ton in mid April to 10000.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 13.42%. The price of titanium dioxide in the downstream fell from 21,100.00 yuan/ton in mid April to 16,350.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 22.51%. The upstream support dropped sharply. The upstream sulfur price fell from 3543.33 yuan/ton in mid April to 1143.33 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 67.73%. Multiple negative, the price of sulfuric acid fell sharply. The price dropped from 1208.33 yuan/ton in mid April to 228.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a drop of 81.13%.

The third stage: from mid September to mid October, the sulfuric acid market rose sharply. The upstream sulfur market stopped falling and rebounded. The price rose from 1143.33 yuan/ton in mid September to 1560.00 yuan/ton in mid October, up 36.44%. The upstream market rose sharply, with good cost support. The price of sulfuric acid rose from 228.00 yuan/ton in mid September to 406.00 yuan/ton in mid October, an increase of 78.07%.

The fourth stage: from the middle of October to the end of December, the sulfuric acid market declined slightly. The downstream titanium dioxide shall be leveled at low position. The price of titanium dioxide fluctuated at a low level around 16000.00 yuan/ton. The downstream phosphoric acid market fell sharply. The price of phosphoric acid dropped from 10530.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decline of 11.68%. The upstream sulfur market fell in a narrow range. The price of sulfur fell from 1560.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 1370.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decline of 12.18%. The upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is weakened. The price of sulfuric acid fell slightly. The price dropped from 426.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 291.67 yuan/ton at the end of December, a drop of 31.53%.

Future outlook: In the first ten days of January, the sulfuric acid market may fall mainly due to slight shocks. The upstream sulfur market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The titanium dioxide market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a low level, while the phosphate fertilizer market was general, and the demand in the lower reaches was weakened. On the whole, the sulfuric acid market has no positive support, and the price of sulfuric acid may fall slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9212.50 yuan/ton, 0.55% higher than the price on Tuesday (December 13), and 0.82% higher than the price on December 1.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. The market price of raw propylene rose slightly this week, and the cost support was strengthened. On Tuesday, the factory shipped better, the inventory pressure eased, and the downstream kept following up moderately. The market operated at a constant price without pressure. On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 8900-9000 yuan/ton.

For upstream propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene on December 15 was 7634.60, up 1.44% compared with December 13 (7524.60).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is still there, the supply side is not under pressure, supporting the market price mentality, and the demand side is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be stable and strong, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Last week (December 12-18, 2022), the upstream and downstream market of nylon filament was weak, the market continued to be weak, and the price continued to fall slightly. The supply of nylon filament remained sufficient and stable, the raw material caprolactam fell to the horizontal, the spot supply was sufficient, the weakness of nylon chips followed up, and the negative impact on the cost side of nylon filament, so the manufacturer’s offer fell again. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, last week (December 12-18, 2022), the price of nylon filament became weaker and lower. As of December 18, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (Premium; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 16,980 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a weekly drop of 0.82%; Nylon POY (Premium; 86D/24F) quoted 14725 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton lower than the previous week’s price, with a weekly drop of 1.17%; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 17750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a weekly drop of 0.56%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Raw material caprolactam: Last week (December 12-18, 2022), the domestic caprolactam fell to a horizontal position. In the early stage, the raw material pure benzene market weakened due to the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, and the cost side was not supported enough. Domestic caprolactam stock is abundant, and the demand side lags behind. The price stabilized after falling, and caprolactam price trend is expected to continue the weak finishing market in the short term.

Raw material PA6: The weakness of domestic PA6 market continued in the middle of December, and the spot price fell by a narrow margin. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 13433.33 yuan/ton on December 18, up or down by – 3.59% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Supply and demand

At present, the commencement of nylon filament shows a downward trend, with overcapacity overflow, high inventory consolidation, and the market is dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the downstream demand shows that the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

In the later stage, the upstream raw materials were weak and low. The nylon filament market was not sufficiently supported at the cost end. The supply of goods in the market was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. The downstream construction would decline, and the overall demand for textile terminals would decrease. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend is temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7450 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 11.19% year on year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX’s external market has risen. As of the 15th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 914-916 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 932-934 dollars/ton CFR China. The rise in external price is good for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has risen slightly. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is supported, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is stable.

This week, the crude oil price trend rose. As of the 15th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.11 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel. The US dollar continued to fall, benefiting risky assets. The US dollar index fell sharply on Tuesday, after data showed that the growth of US core consumer prices in November was lower than expected, which further strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase. It gives the capital market a chance to take a breather. The weakening of the US dollar makes the valuation of crude oil denominated in US dollars higher in a disguised way, and the oil price has the power to rise. The Keystone oil pipeline of the United States and Canada leaked, causing about 14000 barrels of crude oil to spill in the United States, becoming one of the largest oil spills in the United States in the past decade. With the gradual liberalization of China’s epidemic prevention measures, fuel demand is expected to rebound. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, which affected the domestic market price of paraxylene to maintain stability.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the 16th, the average price of the PTA market was 5300-5400 yuan/ton. In terms of PTA supply, PTA started this week more stably. At present, the industry started at around 66%. Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, PTA market prices rose slightly. However, under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow recovery in the downstream polyester industry, the negative pressure has increased. In the textile terminal market, demand remained weak in the off-season, and new orders at the terminal continued to decline. Since the beginning of November, with the terminal texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and the weaving manufacturers’ holidays, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 50%. On the whole, the downstream market is weak, which affects the domestic market price of paraxylene to remain stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst of the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is in a long short game. The expectation of the global economic recession remains unchanged. The oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. There is still a risk of decline in the short term. The terminal downstream operating rate is lower, and the downstream demand is expected to decline. The contradiction between PTA supply and demand is prominent, and the price is not motivated enough. It is expected that the price of paraxylene market will remain stable in the later period.

From December 2, 2022 to December 9, the bidding price of crude benzol will rise, at 5556 yuan/ton last weekend and 5607 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.92%.

Crude oil: Some economic data in the United States outperformed expectations, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply. International crude oil futures closed lower on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 71.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.55 US dollars or 0.76%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel, down 1.02 dollars or 1.32%. The market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere, and the oil market was dragged down by the fear of economic recession. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week will put pressure on oil prices and weaken energy demand.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date./Adjusted Price./Adjusted Amount

November 2./7200./- 250/

November 4./7000./- 200

November 22./6800./- 200

November 29./6500./- 300

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 300 yuan/ton on November 29, 2022, and the current price is 6500 yuan/ton.

Other enterprise quotations: Chambroad Petrochemical quoted 6550 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6453 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, slightly recovered in late August and early September, and fell continuously in October and November.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the trend of crude oil in the first half of this week was volatile, and the downstream styrene was stronger. With the continuous decline of pure benzene, the downstream purchasing sentiment was boosted. Under the triple influence, the price of pure benzene rose slightly by about 50 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, as the crude oil weakened again and the downstream styrene market was weak, the overall market sentiment declined, and the price of pure benzene weakened again slightly, down about 50-75 yuan/ton. The downstream gas buying also declined. Overall, the crude oil price fell nearly 10% this week, which had a great impact on the market. However, the recent supply of pure benzene was relatively sufficient, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. The price of pure benzene continued to weaken slightly, and the price of hydrogenated benzene basically fluctuated with that of pure benzene, Downward trend is dominant this week.

Crude benzol market rose by a narrow margin this week. The bidding price of domestic mainstream production areas remained within the range of 30-50 yuan/ton as a whole. The price of Shandong, the main production area, was 5580 yuan/ton this week, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of supply, coke enterprises maintained the original production limit this week, with limited changes in the operating rate, and the overall supply was slightly strained. In the future, it is expected that the changes of the positive and negative factors in the crude benzol market in the near future are limited. It is expected that the price in the future will remain mainly in consolidation operation, with a limited range of fluctuations. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil and styrene and the commencement of the hydrogenation benzene unit.

Acetic anhydride prices fell in shock this week

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of acetic anhydride fell in a volatile manner this week. As of December 9, the price of acetic anhydride was 5566.67 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from 5700 yuan/ton on December 4. The decline of acetic anhydride remained this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly.

The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that as of December 9, the price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, down 3.98% from 3332.50 yuan/ton on December 4. The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and stabilized this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of methanol price of the business community that as of December 9, the price of methanol was 2673.33 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from 2670 yuan/ton on December 4. As a whole, the methanol price was volatile and stable this week, and the market operators entered the market cautiously. The methanol market was weak and stable, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride was weakened.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, the acetic acid enterprises resumed shipment, the supply of acetic acid increased, the price of acetic acid fell weakly, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell; Downstream demand was weak, and acetic anhydride prices fell in shock. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is weak and tends to stabilize. The demand is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is weak and falls.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline was stable after rising this week. On December 2, the price was 10438 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 10800 yuan/ton, up 3.47% from last week and 20% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: the fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream are more wait-and-see, with average purchase intention; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, the stocks of pure benzene at ports in East China decreased slightly, and the supply pressure eased. On Friday (December 9), the price of pure benzene was 6514 yuan/ton, 0.31% lower than that of last week and 1.46% higher than that of the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic nitric acid price is stable this week. The price was 2433 yuan/ton on December 2, and 2433 yuan/ton on December 9. The price was flat last week, up 2.82% from the same period last year.

Due to the tightening of spot supply of aniline in northern regions, the market is bullish, and the price has risen continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, so it is difficult to greatly increase the demand for aniline. As the good supply turns weak, aniline becomes stable and increases on the sidelines.

3、 Future market expectation

At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, and there is no more good news in the market. It is expected that aniline will stabilize in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2640 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 0.08%, down 12.73% compared with the same period last year. On December 11, the commodity index of light soda ash was 135.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.41% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 114.38% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2550-2750 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. At present, soda ash enterprises maintain low inventory.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glass fell this week. On Monday, the average market price was 18.33 yuan/square meter, and on the weekend, the average market price was 18.08 yuan/ton. The price fell 1.36%, down 30.94% year on year. The spot glass market continued to decline slightly this week. As the demand for expediting at the end of the year is fair in the south, the market demand for entering winter in the north is light, and the winter storage plan is less than expected. The spot delivery of glass is flexible.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of rising commodities, 3 kinds of falling commodities, and 0 kind of zero rising or falling commodities in the list of prices of chlor alkali industry in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (0.36%) and light soda ash (0.08%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-2.25%), calcium carbide (-0.44%) and PVC (-0.14%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.48%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the price of domestic soda ash is generally stable and slightly dynamic. Recently, soda ash enterprises mainly maintain low inventory, and the overall trading and investment atmosphere is ordinary. The downstream of soda ash is still mostly purchased on demand. The game between upstream and downstream supply and demand is expected to be dominated by the consolidation of soda ash prices in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 9, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 15500.00 yuan/ton, which fell by 0.8% compared with the same period last week. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16000 yuan/ton, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent superior products was 15,500.00 yuan/ton, the overall market was stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16,000 yuan/ton, the price of PMMA was stable, the downstream just needed to purchase was mainly, the manufacturers gave up profits and took orders. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. was 15,500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On December 8, the rubber and plastic index was 666 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.17% lower than the highest point 1060 points (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and 26.14% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

PMMA analysts from the business community believe that in the short term, PMMA is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic NMP market fell in a ladder manner in November, and the prices in some regions had fallen to near the cost line by the end of the month. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the month was 28000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 22333 yuan/ton, with a decline of 20.24%.

2、 Analysis and review

As of November 25, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/October 27

East China./20000-21000 yuan/ton

Central China/19500-20000 yuan/ton

Southwest China/19000-20000 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic NMP market turned sharply downward, and its performance fell continuously throughout the month, mainly due to the impact of cost and demand. On the cost side: In November, the BDO market fell sharply unilaterally, by 31.27%. The contradiction between supply and demand is growing. Most manufacturers do not publish bidding prices. The market guidance price is reduced by about 500 yuan/ton every week, and the price is continuously lowered. The external guidance price of individual enterprises has dropped to 9500 yuan/ton, maintaining a small number of contract users. At present, the BDO price has fallen below the cost line. It is expected that the BDO industry will actively limit and reduce production in the future.

Demand side: Affected by the cost of raw materials, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the NMP market, and the willingness to purchase downstream is not strong. At the same time, domestic public health and security incidents have escalated, and transportation in some regions is not smooth. The raw materials of some main materials of superimposed lithium batteries have risen sharply, while the production and sales of some lithium battery manufacturers have declined. According to statistics, since 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, resulting in the demand for lithium salt exceeding expectations, and the price of lithium carbonate, the main raw material of lithium ion batteries, has risen sharply. According to the data released on November 23 by the business community, the average spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate was close to 590000 yuan/ton. At the beginning of January last year, the price of the raw material was about 50000 yuan/ton, up nearly 12 times. Under the pressure of cost, lithium battery enterprises are not willing to purchase, and the demand for NMP is further suppressed.

3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts of the business agency believe that the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the purchase intention is not strong. At the same time, the price of raw material BDO is likely to continue to fall back. It is expected that the NMP market will continue to decline to the bottom in the near future, and the NMP market will decline to the near cost line for consolidation.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene declined in November. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 13.70% year on year.

In November, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600,000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene declined. In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, and the PX external market price fell. As of the 29th, the closing price was 909-911 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 927-929 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is sufficient, and the domestic market for paraxylene has declined.

In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, by 9.63%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.20 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $84.25 per barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of paraxylene fell due to the cost.

In November, the domestic PTA spot market declined. As of the end of the month, the average price in the East China market was 5511 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from the beginning of the month. With the improvement of processing costs, the production intention of PTA plants has risen, and most domestic devices have completed annual maintenance. At present, the operating rate of the industry remains above 74%. In addition, PTA’s new capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated warehouse is expected to rise. The order of textile terminal enterprises is sluggish, and the drag on the demand side may be more obvious. After the end of the traditional peak season of “Jin Jiu Yin Shi”, the downstream polyester plants are more willing to ease the inventory pressure through the way of profit giving promotion and price for volume. However, because the terminal textile enterprises are not willing to take the goods and mainly purchase for rigid demand, the effect of inventory reduction is not good, the polyester plants are forced to choose to reduce the load, the downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is declining.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Downstream demand is poor, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, polyester inventory pressure rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA prices remain low. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will decline slightly in the later period.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic sulfuric acid market price is temporarily stable this week, with the price of sulfuric acid being 321.67 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 48.81%. On December 4, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 50.07, unchanged from yesterday, down 73.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 58.85% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose in a narrow range, with the sulfur price rising from about 1420 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1450.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.11%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 27.50% year on year. The upstream market rose in shock and cost support increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 12071.43 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 12742.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.56%. A year-on-year decrease of 0.68%. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 23.34%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has been surging recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

In November, the domestic polyester staple fiber price continued to be weak and fluctuated downward. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on November 30 was 7372 yuan/ton, 4.90% lower than the price of 7752 at the beginning of the month, and 2.72% higher than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 6592 (settlement price 6586), down 2.17% from the beginning of the month.

Industrial chain: 1. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over. OPEC+again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022, and crude oil prices fell in November. At the end of the month, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at 80.55 dollars/barrel, down about 6.9% for the whole month. 2. In the first ten days of this month, PTA became stronger due to the positive impact of crude oil and its own supply. However, since the middle of the year, the new device is about to be launched, the cost is weakening, and the demand is not good. Under the superposition of many bad news, the PTA spot price is down, and the futures trend is stronger than the spot full month futures. 3. The fall in crude oil price has weakened the support for ethylene glycol cost, and the downstream demand has remained sluggish. However, due to the impact of poor efficiency, the unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased recently, and the operating rate remains low. In the case of a large decline in the previous period, the price of ethylene glycol was also at a relatively low level. Ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded slightly throughout the month. 4. The market situation of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn continued to be weak this month, with a small decline in prices and flat trading. As a whole, it was slow to go to the warehouse, mainly through negotiation.

On the supply and demand side: the stocks of staple fiber manufacturers continued to increase this month, and some large factories reduced production. The domestic sales of terminal textiles are weak, while the export sales are poor. Weaving enterprises have further reduced their burden. The demand for raw materials continues to be weak, mainly for the purchase of rigid demand. The production and sales of staple fibers continue to be sluggish, and the price continues to fall.

Analysts from the business community believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The characteristics of the downstream off-season are obvious, and the terminal demand continues to be weak. It is expected that after December, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance will further increase, and the stock of staple fibers may continue to accumulate. The staple fiber market may still be weak in December. Pay attention to changes in raw material prices, dynamic changes in units and fluctuations in downstream orders.