since the fourth quarter of 2016, the domestic PTA market continued upward trend, and since 2017, the majority of PTA market in a narrow range situation. In addition to the Spring Festival approaching, the industry can not help but worry about the PTA market before and after the Spring Festival in what direction?

Over the years before and after the Spring Festival, the polyester industry generally shows Yang first after the weak trend, especially after the Spring Festival, most of the polyester industry ushered in a good start”. Then in 2017 PTA market trend will be as expected? The market is still worth exploring.

1 from the perspective of crude oil

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russian non OPEC producers reached a joint production agreement last year, plans to start a total cut nearly 1 million 800 thousand barrels a day in January 1st of this year, in order to stabilize prices, the validity of production agreement for 6 months. In the first quarter of this year, Russia plans to cut 200 thousand barrels a day, and a total of 300 thousand barrels per day reduction in the second quarter, the production of the target production level of 10 million 947 thousand barrels / day. Russia last October crude oil production was 11 million 247 thousand barrels / day. It is reported that in January Russia has cut 100 thousand barrels / day. Russian energy minister recently predicted that in 2017, the country’s crude oil output will reach 5.48-5.51 million barrels, about 1101-1107 million barrels / day. Overall, the producers now cut out basically in place, the crude oil market in 2017 or early return balance. The medium term, the focus of the operation of crude oil is expected to 55-60 dollars / barrel.

2 from the perspective of supply

The current domestic PTA social stock at a low level, about 1 million 300 thousand tons, the overall supply pressure, although the downstream polyester plant demand weakened, but just slightly smooth replenishment. And the current mainstream supplier is also active in the warehouse and repurchase stock, current market prices still support. According to Wen, Yi Sheng Ningbo 2 million 200 thousand tons preliminary plans for 2 at the beginning of this year the Spring Festival reference overhaul, the downstream polyester maintenance situation before and after the Spring Festival, the market supply pressure is still not PTA.

3 from the perspective of demand analysis

The recent polyester factory profit performance is good, and the stocks continued at a low level. The Spring Festival introduced some polyester factory overhaul plan, from next week, polyester factory has entered the Spring Festival holiday, so demand is gradually weakening, but according to past data, this year the overall participation in the maintenance capacity fell sharply, so the demand is still has a supporting effect on the price of PTA.

A comprehensive analysis of the current domestic PTA multi commodity futures followed fluctuations, from the technical side can be seen, the 5400 yuan mark stable support, long-term PTA futures market or increase in space, but in the short term or a narrow range, multi spot market synchronous futures market, so in the case of a slowdown in demand before the Spring Festival, is expected to the market or the main shock, as the Spring Festival, polyester factories have resumed, the market does not rule out a “good start”.

November 7, 2016, Commerce Announcement: China’s imports from different countries and regions of the relevant catechol, epichlorohydrin, spandex products anti-dumping measures will expire next year.

In this announcement listed in case of antidumping and countervailing measures expire in 60 days ago, natural person, or on behalf of the domestic industry or relevant organizations such as legal persons that may lead to the termination of the levy measures of dumping and damage or subsidy and damage or continue to happen again, can be in written form to the Ministry of Commerce made a final review application.

The final review of the application shall include requirements for the final review of the clear and the termination of the anti-dumping and countervailing measures may lead to dumping and injury or subsidy and damage of the continuation or recurrence of evidence.

As the domestic industry or on behalf of the domestic industry of natural persons, legal persons and other organizations according to the provisions of this announcement made a final review of the application, at the same time due to related anti-dumping and countervailing measures, the Ministry of commerce did not initiate the final review of the investigation, the anti-dumping and countervailing measures will be terminated since the expiration of the measures the date of implementation.

[hot] Gade chemical network daily The United States to protect the paint and special

paint demand growth mainly through the development of the construction industry and the

federal highway maintenance expenditure to promote growth. Since 2015, oil prices reached

multi-year lows, coating consumption growth is inhibited, and reflects the gain in

multiple protective coatings and special coatings market, especially marine coatings used

in offshore drilling platform.

According to JOYOU news estimates, if the current round of oil price increases, with the exception of Hainan Province, most of the provinces in our country will be in the retail price of gasoline 6.35-6.6 yuan / liter. Chinese maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel price chart. Source: Longzhong information Chinese maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel price chart.

Although the current round of oil will usher in a maximum retail price increase, but the domestic wholesale market is relatively flat. Longzhong information oil analyst Zhang Meng said, approaching the end of the year, and sustained by the weather factors, diesel consumption into the off-season, the price fell again and again, while gasoline before the Holiday Stocking has not fully started, the wholesale price fell compared to the last round of price adjustment.

Hu Xue said, diesel businesses currently tend to lower sales, maintain low inventory, the overall market turnover enthusiasm is low, the market shock down.

The United States in December 23rd crude oil production of 8 million 796 thousand barrels a day, a week before the reduction of 20 thousand barrels / day, compared with a year ago to reduce the 436 thousand barrels / day. The United States in December 30th 658 weeks the number of rigs, 5 increase in the number of Taiwan, Taiwan 40 years of decline; Canada rig count 157 Taiwan, Taiwan 67 weeks to reduce the number of years, an increase of 74. The United States oil rig 525 weeks, a 2 increase in the number of Taiwan, Taiwan 11 years of decline. EIA in the December forecast of Brent crude oil price forecast in 2017 raised $1 a barrel to $52 / barrel, Brent crude oil price in 2017 was $50 / barrel, to the end of 2017 reached 55 U.S. dollars / barrel, the price is included OPEC production is expected, but only short-term energy production agreement prior to the looking to have a smaller influence.

This week, domestic gasoline and diesel oil fuel tax spreads were 393, 715, -482 yuan / ton, rate is 9.2%, 20.8% and -13.1%. The ethylene downstream operating rate rise significantly, but Europe and the Middle East spot is limited, it is difficult to goods flows to Asia, thinly traded, ethylene prices fell 0.51% this week in Southeast Asia at 980 U.S. dollars / ton. Overseas manufacturers and foreign companies outside the holiday turnover less, the domestic market downturn, the downstream polypropylene prices decline, Southeast Asian propylene steady quoted at 801 yuan / ton. Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia in December and January as part of the device maintenance led to tight supply, the change of ethylene in the global scope, expected long-term shortage of Southeast Asia butadiene steady report in 1940 yuan / ton.

Petroleum and chemical industry:

Last week, oil prices continued to rise. To Friday Brent and WTI crude oil futures rose 3.01%, 1.32% and 53.72 to 56.82 U.S. dollars / barrel; week average price is respectively 56.09 and 53.69 dollars / barrel, rose respectively 2% and 2.15%. The U.S. dollar index closed at 102.36 weeks, up and down -0.65%. In December 23rd the United States commercial inventories of crude oil 486 million barrels, compared to the previous week increased 700 thousand barrels; gasoline inventories fell 1 million 600 thousand barrels to 227 million barrels, week; distillate inventories decreased by 1 million 900 thousand barrels to 152 million barrels, week; propane inventories fell 5 million 670 thousand barrels of 86 million 870 thousand barrels, week.

[hot] Gade chemical network daily According to the 86 kinds of chemical price related department monitoring, this week rose varieties accounted for 37% (30% week), flat (47% last week) accounted for 37%, accounted for 26% (down 23% last week), oil prices continued to rise, the overall average increase of about 0.98%. Or the top five respectively (+25.8%), crude salt polymerization MDI listing price (+10.0%), coal tar (+9.5%), the domestic ex factory price of urea (+7.5%), BDO (+7.3%), the decline in the top five products were PVC paste resin (-5.0%) and aniline (-3.7%) and phenol (-2.8%), two acid (-2.7%), benzene (-2.6%).

The price of:

This week MDI- spreads to expand the chain of 4.5% aniline, carbon black – coal tar, calcium carbide, acetylene PVC- TDI- toluene chain decreased 50%, 7.6%, price 0.9%, glycine glyphosate price steady.

Basic chemical:

December domestic DOP market weak trend is still running, with the focus on the phenomenon of low. The terminal demand is difficult to improve, inquiry and purchase the phenomenon of poor, the manufacturers take the goods in high resistance situation, mentality continued pressure, coupled with raw material manufacturers and octanol down, but also increased the negative expectation.

In December 30th, Shandong and North China market price increase of phthalic anhydride downstream demand, weak, take the goods of high resistance, facing little inquiry mentality pressure intensified, deserted atmosphere. The neighbor phthalic anhydride market in 7500-7800 yuan / ton. The DOP market in Tianjin area of North China run sideways,

the demand outlook is subject to change, but the ship resistance is still high, manufacturers not change based on the octanol, whole suspension. At present, discuss the market price of 8300 yuan / ton. Zibo Shanghai exhibition industry neighbor foreign price 7850 yuan / ton phthalic anhydride. DOP offer 8300 yuan / ton, DBP offer 8400 yuan / ton, the actual transaction negotiations, normal sales. Shandong DOP market consolidation trend, the downstream demand is still difficult to improve, but the recovery of propylene, octanol temporarily stabilized, the overall slightly slow, but the atmosphere is still light. The current mainstream 8250-8300 yuan / ton from mentioning other price 8200 yuan / ton.

Market outlook, demand outlook is subject to change, and manufacturers and shippers will ship based, but based on the demand is difficult to improve, there are low risk, however, manufacturers still in the vicinity of the cost line, is expected to more than yindie.