According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in November 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market stabilized first and then fell, with prices slightly declining. The average market price in East China was 82500 yuan/ton on the 1st and 80500 yuan/ton on the 28th, a decrease of 2.42%.

On November 28, the antimony commodity index was 112.06, a decrease of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 7.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.46 points (2023-15), and an increase of 138.53% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival, with a wide decline in prices in March, a stable trend in April and May, a seven week continuous decline in prices after June, an eight week continuous increase at the end of July, and a narrow decline in October and November. The recent trend is relatively stable.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market declined in November, with a quote of $11150/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of $500/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market followed the overall downward trend of the antimony ingot market in November, and the overall performance of overseas markets was poor. The latest export data for November shows that in October 2023, China exported a total of 2733.9 tons of antimony oxide, a decrease of 33.31% compared to the previous month. This also reflects that the overseas antimony oxide market is in the off-season, and the overall market demand is weak. The European antimony ingot market has continued to decline during the month, which has a significant impact on market sentiment. The performance of the antimony oxide market in November was poor, and most domestic enterprises maintain a strong demand for antimony ingots to replenish inventory, In the light of weak market sentiment, it is expected that the antimony oxide market will continue to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak operation in the short term.

In November, the antimony ingot market continued its decline at the end of October, with a decrease of about 2000 yuan/ton within the month. From the perspective of supply and demand, there was not much overall change during the month. The supply of antimony ore remained tight, and smelters still had a reluctance to sell. Currently, the overall supply of antimony ingots in China is still tight, and the inventory in factories is generally low. However, some enterprises may have a need to recover funds by the end of the year. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises maintain a normal replenishment demand for the antimony ingot market while maintaining a basic replenishment demand. Overall, there has been no significant market news in the antimony ingot market recently, and it has remained stable with a weak trend. The overall news is relatively stable, and the market performance is in the off-season. In the future, it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term, with a focus on the sales plan of year-end smelters in the future.

On November 28th, the non-ferrous index was at 1085 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.45% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 78.75% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend remained stable in November. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4000 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year price increase of 1.27%.

In November, the domestic ammonium nitrate market prices remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the sales situation is average. Downstream demand is normal, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream purchases of nitro compound fertilizers have been average, and domestic purchases in the downstream civil explosive industry have been normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3800-3900 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased in November, with an average price of 2133.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 2.40% from the initial price of 2083.33 yuan/ton. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2300 yuan/ton. The market supply is normal, and the recent sales have been good. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and on-site transactions are normal. The price of raw material nitric acid has risen, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of the ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable.

In November, the domestic liquid ammonia market price slightly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4023.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72% from the beginning of the month’s price of 3916.67 yuan/ton. In November, the price of liquid ammonia first increased and then decreased, and overall, the price slightly increased. In early November, due to supply shortages, the northern region was mainly affected by equipment maintenance by manufacturers, coupled with some devices operating at reduced loads. The supply volume was delayed and manufacturers and distributors reported an increase in prices. In the later stage, when the maintenance equipment was restarted, the amount of ammonia released increased, and the price trend of liquid ammonia in the market declined. Since November, the import supply has also increased, which has had an impact on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Prices of large factories in Shandong, Hebei and other places have all been lowered. From the demand side, downstream demand is relatively stable, and the atmosphere of urea speculation is falling, which is bearish for the domestic liquid ammonia market. The trend of the liquid ammonia market is falling. Overall, the liquid ammonia market saw a slight increase in prices in November, but the fluctuation in ammonium nitrate prices was not significant due to this impact.

Recently, there has been an increase in downstream purchase orders, coupled with an increase in the market price of raw material nitric acid. However, the trend of liquid ammonia prices has declined, and the combined influence of bullish and bearish factors has led to a slight increase in the market price of ammonium nitrate in the future, according to analysts from Business Society.

This week, the price of 441 # metallic silicon continued to remain stable. As of November 27th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. The price of 441 # metallic silicon has remained stable for half a month, and both supply and demand sides have shown caution in their operations. Southwest silicon factories are mainly pushing up prices, while Northwest is under pressure to ship, with short-term upstream and downstream games being the main focus. In terms of futures, the overall trend is rising first and then falling, with a slight decline throughout the week. SI2401 rose or fell 0.46% throughout the week, closing at 14200 yuan/ton.

On the 27th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of November 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 407, with an overall start-up rate of 55.83%, a decrease of 6 furnaces compared to the previous month. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decrease, continuing to be less in the south and more in the north. The cost of electricity prices in the southwest has increased, and the profits of silicon plants have been compressed. It is expected that further production reduction will occur next week; A small increase in the opening of furnaces in the northwest partially compensates for the decrease in supply in the southwest, while the overall supply slightly decreases.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 24th, the total social inventory was 372000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 35000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week; Kunming delivered 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming delivered 79000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port had 39000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Tianjin delivery warehouse had 34000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week; The delivery warehouse in Xinjiang is 0.3, with a decrease of 0.1 thousand tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream quotation for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is 68333.33 yuan/ton. In October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic equipment fell, and it is expected that polycrystalline silicon will continue to remain weak in the short term.

The organic silicon DMC market is experiencing a weak decline, with a market price reference of 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is limited, and the factory’s order volume is average. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on site, and some downstream factories have started operating at a reduced rate, resulting in weak demand for metallic silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remains weak due to difficulties in purchasing scrap aluminum and production losses.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the willingness of Southwest Silicon Plant to shut down has increased, and the quotation is relatively firm. However, a small number of Northwest manufacturers have increased their opening of furnaces, coupled with the arrival of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, resulting in significant supply pressure. Downstream product prices on the demand side have weakened, and there is no expectation of improvement in demand. Metal silicon lacks short-term upward momentum. But with further increases in electricity prices during the dry season, cost support is gradually increasing, and the space for silicon prices to fall is also limited. It is expected that metal silicon will maintain a volatile operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda has been improving this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2187.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 2212.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.64%. On November 23, the baking soda commodity index was 146.68, an increase of 0.66 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.81% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 66.17% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is strong and the downstream market is purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2000-2300 yuan/ton. According to the product analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash in the upstream of baking soda remains strong. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2190 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 2300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.02% and a decrease of 12.88% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been strong in recent times, and the upstream raw material pure alkali has been strong in recent times. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other aspects of baking soda will mainly require on-demand procurement in the near future. It is expected that the price of baking soda will consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the domestic phenol market has shown a strong upward trend, with a weekly increase of 5.64%. According to the analysis system of the Business Society, the national market quotation on November 13th was at 7857 yuan/ton, and on November 20th the market rose to 8192.50 yuan/ton. In terms of domestic factories, on November 20th, several major factories in North and East China of Sinopec raised their listing prices to 8100 yuan/ton.

The market supply has decreased. On November 13th, the inventory of Jiangyin phenol port decreased to 11000 tons, and there was no replenishment of imported goods during the week. The arrival of domestic trade ships at the port was delayed, resulting in a shortage of imported resources.

There is slight support on the cost side. In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia may further postpone additional production cuts until next year, and international oil prices will continue to rise. In the new week, the East China pure benzene market will open low and rise high, with spot negotiation prices ranging from 7800 to 7900 yuan/ton. However, due to the weak opening of downstream styrene, the market’s action on pure benzene is insufficient, and the market is mostly dominated by far month transactions.

The downstream bisphenol A market is fluctuating and rising. In the new week, the bidding price of a certain petrochemical company in East China is rising, with delivery prices for qualified and premium products of 9350 yuan/ton and 9500 yuan/ton. The negotiated price in the East China region has been pushed up to 9600-9700 yuan/ton, and the overall trading volume needs to be improved. We will continue to pay attention to changes in upstream raw materials.

Future forecast: The replenishment situation of phenol shipments. Recently, Changchun Chemical and Guangxi Huayi Phenol Ketone plants have restarted, and the supply pressure is still good. Traders are confident in the short term. However, in the face of high prices, downstream resistance is obvious, and the possibility of terminal factories continuing to chase up prices is unlikely, suppressing the upward space of the market. Business Society estimates that the negotiated price in the East China phenol market is between 8100-8200 yuan/ton

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon remained stable. As of November 20th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. Overall, there is a differentiation in supply between the north and south. In terms of futures, the overall trend was initially suppressed and then increased, with a slight increase throughout the week and a relatively stable performance. SI2401 rose or fell 1.24% throughout the week, closing at 14265 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 20th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of November 16th, there were 413 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 56.65%, a decrease of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. 78 furnaces were opened in Yunnan, 67 furnaces were opened in Sichuan, and 152 furnaces were opened in Xinjiang. Due to the arrival of the dry season in the southwest region, the cost of silicon factories has increased, and the number of furnace shutdowns has increased, resulting in relatively strong quotations from silicon factories; There are still small profits in the northwest region, with an increase in the number of furnaces and sufficient supply of warehouse receipts for shipment. However, downstream purchasing sentiment is not high and prices are weak.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 17th, the total social inventory was 368000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 32000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week; Kunming has 49000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming has 79000 tons, which remains unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port has 39000 tons, with an increase of 2000 tons compared to the surrounding area; Xinjiang delivery warehouse is 0.4, with a decrease of 10000 tons compared to the previous month.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar grade is currently maintained at 6.5-7.5 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon remains the main demand force for metallic silicon, with 99 silicon powder signing orders one after another, but there is a strong pressure on prices.

The organic silicon DMC market is operating steadily, with a market price reference of 14540 yuan/ton. The overall market is in a period of consolidation and recovery, and the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC remains average. The operating load of individual factories has decreased, and the demand for metallic silicon is also average.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The factory has just released orders, and industrial silicon procurement has been actively inquiring and placing orders recently.

Future Market Forecast

Fundamentally, the metal silicon market is still in a situation of oversupply, with production gradually decreasing in the south. However, the increase in production by manufacturers in the northwest has resulted in a lower than expected decrease in the supply of metal silicon. This week, social inventory has once again accumulated, putting pressure on the supply side of metal silicon. From a cost perspective, with the opening of power rationing in Southwest China, the profit from metal silicon production has decreased, and cost support has gradually strengthened. With the arrival of the dry season, metal silicon will gradually fluctuate and operate.

This week (11.3-11.117), the domestic dimethyl ether market maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market on November 13th was 3650 yuan/ton, and on November 17th it was 3650 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, a decrease of 21% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 17th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3650 yuan/ton

This week, the overall stability of the domestic dimethyl ether market was maintained, with mainstream prices in the Henan market around 3650 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol was weak, and support for dimethyl ether was weak. The on-site supply has tightened, and some factories have reduced their load operations. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is not high, with a focus on just demand and a weak market mentality, resulting in weak production and sales.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated this week, rising from 2460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2480 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.82%. The cost support for dimethyl ether is weak.

Overall, there are no positive factors supporting the current dimethyl ether market. On the contrary, under the cover of negative factors, it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain a weak consolidation operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has recently rebounded and stopped falling. As of November 14th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7052.00 yuan/ton, an incre

The fluctuation of crude oil market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has sparked demand concerns and eased supply tension. There is still a risk of supply side tension, and OPEC+, an oil producing country, will hold a ministerial meeting on November 26th. The market generally believes that its production reduction policy will continue. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has weakened its impact on oil prices, coupled with poor demand prospects and weak momentum for a significant rebound in oil prices.

Hydrogenated benzene market is weak, and n-butane trend is overall rising

Upstream: Recently, the market for hydrogenated benzene has been weak, and hydrogenated benzene enterprises undergoing initial maintenance have started construction one after another. The overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has increased, and on-site supply is slightly loose. As of the 14th, the mainstream quotation range in the hydrogenation benzene market in Shandong Province is between 7450 to 7500 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall trend of n-butane has been upward, with prices in Shandong ranging from 5300 to 5400 yuan/ton as of November 14th.

Unsaturated resin market remains stable, with high inventory levels

Downstream: Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market has remained stable, with high spot inventory of resin and limited downstream demand, resulting in overall poor trading performance.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the main maleic anhydride factories are currently mainly executing preliminary orders, with tight spot shipments from factories. Factory prices continue to rise, and distributors are following suit. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to rise in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2900.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 22.32% year-on-year. On November 12, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average. The price of calcium carbide in OVA Energy this weekend is 2900 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide for Inner Mongolia Zhonglian this weekend is 2900 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate is around 1230-1330 yuan/ton, with low price consolidation and average cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5902.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5868.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.58%. Weekend prices fell by 2.66% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid to late November, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in mid to late November, with consolidation being the main trend.

This week, domestic Shandong propane rose first and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on November 6th was 5648 yuan/ton, and on November 10th it was 5663 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 0.27%, a decrease of 1.16% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 10th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 10th

East China region/ 5350-5700 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5650-5750 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5550-5650 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5550-5700 yuan/ton

This week (11.6-11.10), the Shandong propane market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the inventory in the Shandong propane market was low and goods were moving smoothly. With a sudden drop in temperature, downstream markets actively entered the market, while upstream prices rose. In the second half of the week, the price of propane rose to a high level, and downstream resistance was evident. The increase was recouped, and the price dropped to the level at the beginning of the week.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in November 2023, with propane at $610 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $620 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current price of propane is returning to rationality, downstream demand is stable, and upstream inventory is controllable. It is expected that the price of propane will narrow in the short term.

The domestic MIBK market is mainly down. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market reported 16400 yuan/ton on November 1st and 14933 yuan/ton on November 8th, a decrease of 8.94%

Recently, the MIBK market has been mainly declining, with low end prices in East China reaching 14600-14800 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking intentions are not high, and with the off-season approaching, traders have a more bearish mentality, making it difficult to stop the market decline.

The cost side is bearish, with crude oil falling more or less in November, dragging down the weak and downward trend of the downstream acetone market. There is sufficient import and domestic supply, and the market’s spot circulation has increased. In addition, at the beginning of the month, downstream large factories mainly consumed contract volume, and there was less restocking in the market. As of the 8th, the acetone market has fallen by 6.61%, with the East China region offering 6600 yuan/ton.

From a terminal perspective, the demand in other industries is mostly small orders, with the largest downstream antioxidant industry experiencing a decline in operating rates. Overall, there is less demand for raw materials, and the market is mainly bearish. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and operate under targeted contracts, resulting in a lack of positive support for the industrial chain.

Concerns about the demand outlook have intensified, with overnight crude oil continuing to decline broadly, and bearish factors in the industrial chain increasing. Moreover, domestic demand is difficult to be optimistic. After a continuous decline in the market, the business community expects that there is still a small downward space in the short-term MIBK market, but it will enter a weak adjustment state later. Focus on the support from the raw material end.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in November. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton. On November 8th, the average market price was around 2080 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 15.45%. On November 7th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 109.74, a decrease of 6.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 73.78% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of the market, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has declined this month. The mainstream price in the domestic market is around 1900-2400 yuan/ton, and the enterprise equipment is relatively stable with no significant fluctuations at the moment. Enterprise shipments are average and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation.

Domestic mainstream market quotation situation:

In terms of supply: The market trading atmosphere is average, with data showing that the overall operating rate of soda ash is currently around 87%. Data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is currently around 510000 tons, an increase of 13.07%. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased, but the alkali plants are still in a state of accumulation. In addition, data shows that in October, with the completion of new production and centralized maintenance, the monthly production of soda ash exceeded 3 million tons, setting a new monthly high in recent years. This shows that the production of soda ash is still at a high level.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of glass is declining. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.09 yuan/square meter. On November 8th, the average price was 22.68 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.78%. The performance of glass is average. Although the raw material inventory of downstream glass factories is not high, the market sentiment is relatively cautious due to the expectation of upstream inventory accumulation, and there has been no large-scale replenishment behavior. Instead, procurement is mainly based on demand.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash is weak and operating. Individual enterprises undergo maintenance, but the overall supply fluctuation is not significant. The overall trading atmosphere is average, and the downstream of soda ash is replenished according to demand. Market participants have a strong bearish attitude towards the future market, and the supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation of soda ash prices in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of November 3rd, the average price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 63600 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate showed a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.93% compared to the same period last week. In October, the overall trend of lithium iron phosphate was weak and decreased by 10.17%, with a price drop of 7200 yuan/ton. Since November, it has still maintained a weak trend.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. The price for the same period last week was 63600 yuan/ton, and the current mainstream price is around 63000 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable and weak, with downstream restocking on demand and weak demand. Upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak, and the cost support for lithium iron phosphate is not strong. There is still overcapacity, and the overall market is operating under pressure.

In terms of supply and demand: It is predicted that there will be a surplus of global lithium iron phosphate production capacity in 2025, approximately exceeding 3 million per ton. However, the lithium battery industry is still hot, and there are still multiple enterprises building new production lines and production lines.

Cost side: Upstream lithium carbonate is weak and declining, with insufficient cost support for lithium iron phosphate. In October, the price of lithium carbonate continued to be low, but after the National Day holiday, the trend was flat and prices continued to decline. In November, lithium carbonate remained weak and moved forward under pressure, with lithium iron phosphate passively following the decline.

In the first half of 2023, the cumulative production of power batteries in China is about 194GWh, while the installed capacity is only 103.9GWh, which is relatively surplus. It is speculated that the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China will reach 5.75 million tons in 2025, with a demand of about 2.67 million tons and a production capacity of over 3 million tons. Based on the current situation, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is oversupplied, and the positive electrode market will maintain this surplus trend in the short term.

Analysts from Business Society’s Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that lithium iron phosphate will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Under the dual pressure of oversupply and weak demand support, lithium iron phosphate will move forward under pressure. The downturn in power batteries is obvious, and the recovery of industry demand is slow and less than expected. Upstream raw materials continue to decline, and there is a lack of support on the cost side. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among enterprises, and bearish sentiment still exists,

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 3rd, the domestic ethanol price dropped from 6895 yuan/ton to 6882 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 3.23%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. There is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises across regions. However, downstream procurement is mainly in demand, inventory accumulation is severe, and the ethanol market is weak and organized, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market.

In terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, the market volume of corn in production areas has gradually increased, and the domestic corn market has seamlessly connected new and old markets. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and manufacturers have gradually lowered the purchase price of corn after completing the acquisition task. The overall domestic corn market has entered a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the overall price of corn market has come under pressure and fully declined. There are temporary bearish factors on the cost side of ethanol.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 33.51% operating in East China and 87.28% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 13.40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Shuntong Short Stop is about to resume. Hongzhan Huanan is recovering, and there is a possibility of Liaoyuan Jufeng starting up. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in November. Other chemical products require procurement. The demand for Baijiu is average. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish and the supply and demand are weak. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fell in October. On the first day, the market reported around 13710 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, it reported around 13540 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.24%. This month, the market for raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has decreased. However, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market has ample spot supply. Downstream demand has not increased, and the current mainstream market for polyacrylamide is still weak and organized.

Raw material acrylonitrile: In October, the acrylonitrile market experienced a high level in the early stage and a slight decline in the later stage. As of October 30th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the 9825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and falls, while the cost support for acrylonitrile weakens; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, has experienced a significant decline in production, and demand has weakened in the face of acrylonitrile support; In October, the start of acrylonitrile production slightly decreased. In the early stage of October, acrylonitrile prices were strong due to low inventory and cost support, but in the later stage, prices slightly decreased at the end of the month as demand weakened.

Raw material acrylic acid: The acrylic acid market steadily declined in October. After the Double Festival, the market price of raw material propylene has decreased, cost support has weakened, industry capacity utilization has increased, and supply of goods is sufficient. However, downstream demand is poor, and the inquiry and procurement atmosphere is not high. Holders are offering discounts to ship, and the focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market has weakened. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market has been boosted by news, resulting in increased cost pressure. The supply side’s operating load has decreased compared to the previous period, and the demand side support is weak. Holders’ shipments are under pressure, and the acrylic acid market has been sorted out through game theory. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene price has weakened, and cost support has once again shown weakness. Some units have shut down, but the demand side follow-up is still insufficient. Downstream procurement is mostly in demand, and acrylic acid prices have fallen.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the civilian liquefied gas market in Shandong experienced a surge in October. The price of raw gas has skyrocketed, supported by costs and the strong price of Shanghai gas. As the northern heating season approaches, there is strong bullish sentiment towards liquefied natural gas, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of liquefied natural gas will be higher than that of other countries.

Future forecast: In October, the overall focus of raw material cost prices will shift downwards, while the overall fuel market will rise. The cost of polyacrylamide will fluctuate. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, and market transactions are stable. The actual transaction changes have not yet been significantly followed up. It is expected to continue to focus on consolidation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in October 2023, the domestic lead ingot market was weak and volatile, with an average price of 16500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 0.91%.

On October 30th, the lead commodity index was 99.48, an increase of 0.22 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 33.30% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On October 30th, the base metal index was 1192 points, an increase of 12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 85.67% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile, with a significant increase starting from July. Judging from the weekly trend, there are more losses and less gains.

In October 2023, the lead ingot market continued to decline in the first half of the month, while the trend in the second half was volatile. The futures market performed poorly after the holiday, with lead inventory rising to over 90000 tons, reaching a new high since June 2021. The spot market supply increased after the holiday, and the market mentality was weak. Under high inventory pressure, the lead ingot market was under pressure and downward trend. After entering the second half of the month, the market saw a slight rebound driven by the positive macro outlook, but was once again under pressure and downward.

From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in the main production areas have maintenance plans after the holiday, while most of the enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance have recently resumed normal production. The overall operating rate of primary lead has slightly increased compared to last month, and it is expected that the production will slightly increase within the month, indicating sufficient market supply. In terms of demand, as the weather turns colder, the traditional seasonal peak season in China has basically come to an end. However, this year’s overall peak season performance is average, and the overall performance is not strong during the peak season. Due to poor sales performance during the peak season, the inventory of battery companies in the factory is still high, and companies are mainly actively destocking. Overall, the lead ingot market is gradually entering the off-season, and there may be room for a downward trend in lead prices under high inventory pressure.

Related data:

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.85 million and 2.858 million units, respectively, with an average increase of 10.7% month on month and 6.6% and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively. Both production and sales reached historical highs during the same period. From January to September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached a total of 21.075 million and 21.069 million units, with year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 8.2%, respectively.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in September 2023 reached 687000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to September 2023, China’s lead production reached 5.761 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in August 2023, global refined lead production was 1.1787 million tons, consumption was 1.1849 million tons, and supply shortage was 6100 tons. From January to August 2023, the global refined lead production was 9.7148 million tons, with a consumption of 9.7386 million tons and a supply shortage of 23800 tons. In August 2023, the global lead ore production was 354400 tons. From January to August 2023, the global lead ore production was 3.2548 million tons