I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of October 27, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 5550.00 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, or 2.63% compared with 5700.00 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the week (October 21), and down 29.15% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, fell sharply, while the price of methanol fell sharply. The demand for acetic anhydride is general, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers is maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride is stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, customers purchase on demand, the overall market of acetic anhydride is more negative than positive, and the market of acetic anhydride is under great pressure.

Industry chain factor analysis:

As can be seen from the figure, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and it was negative for acetic anhydride. The cost of acetic anhydride enterprises has dropped significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride market decline is great.

In terms of methanol, methanol fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride produced by methanol method fell, and the market of acetic anhydride in the future was negative. Overall, acetic anhydride raw materials were negative significantly, and it is expected that the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market will increase.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride dropped significantly, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was insufficient; as for downstream customers, the demand for acetic anhydride was general, downstream customers purchased on demand, and the demand for acetic anhydride was limited, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was insufficient. On the whole, the pressure of acetic anhydride decline is increasing, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will mainly fall in the future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOP price has stabilized after a small drop this week, and the plasticizer market has remained weak and stable. As of October 25, the price of DOP in East China was 7466.67 yuan / ton, down 133.33 yuan / ton, or 1.75% compared with 7600.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (October 21), and down 24.32% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name, port, price of this week, price of last week, price rise and fall, price type, unit

DOP China 930.00 940.00-10.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1140.00 1150.00-10.00 CFR USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation fell this week, and DOP’s market was negative. This week, the price of DOP in China was 930.00 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 10 dollars / ton compared with that of last week; the price of DOP in Southeast Asia was 1140 dollars / ton, a decrease of 10 dollars / ton compared with that of last week, and the price of plasticizer DOP fell, which was negative for domestic plasticizer Market.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell this week, but the decline slowed down. After the price of octanol fell, it stabilized. The overall cost of DOP fell, but the decline slowed down. The price of DOP fell in shock, but the downward pressure in the future weakened, and the market in the future of DOP was weak.

In terms of downstream demand, this week’s PVC market remained stable, while the downstream demand of DOP was stable, with insufficient upward momentum. The downstream PVC market fluctuated and remained stable, the demand for DOP was general, the overall good for the future DOP market was insufficient, and the momentum for the future DOP to rise was insufficient.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the decline of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP this week slowed down, the price of isooctanol stabilized after a small drop, the cost of DOP decreased but the space for decline was limited, the price of PVC remained stable, the demand for DOP was not good enough, and the momentum of DOP market was insufficient. The overall plasticizer DOP market decline pressure still exists, but it has been alleviated to some extent. The lack of upward momentum is difficult to support the DOP market recovery. It is expected that the future DOP market will be weak and stable.

As of the 25th, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9640 yuan / ton. Since the late July, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, with an overall decline of 20%. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 9. About RMB 000-9500 / ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant operates stably, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the market of hydrofluoric acid is not good, and the market price keeps falling.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is more than 60%. Enterprises report that there is sufficient stock supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site at present, and the situation of goods distribution in the site in the near future is poor. In the near future, due to the poor downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to decline. In the near future, the start-up of downstream refrigerant product units is at a low level, and the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is generally, the operation rate of R22 refrigerants is 50%, and the operation rate of R22 market devices is temporarily stable. The factory offer price of bulk water of the main production enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water in stock, most of which are small quantities of steel cylinders. In addition, the actual demand side of the market changes little, and the shipping market is general. The price trend of R134a market in China is not good, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low, the market demand for refrigerants is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps declining due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand. Recently, affected by the common negative effects of fluorite and refrigerant industry, the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell by as much as 20% in three months.

The price trend of fluorite can be seen clearly from the price trend chart. According to statistics, the average price of fluorite in China as of October 25 is 2877.78 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite has declined by 8.64% since the middle of July. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 27 yuan / ton. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-3000 yuan / ton.

In the middle of July, the price trend of domestic fluorite began to decline. First, the national environmental protection inspection showed that the operation rate of fluorite was average. In 2019, some domestic mines and flotation units were shut down, which made the spot supply of fluorite in the site normal. Some goods holding businesses still had a strong price intention. The price drop of domestic fluorite was relatively low compared with the price of hydrofluoric acid. Second, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is sluggish, and the demand for upstream is poor. Fluorite price is affected by the downturn. Recently, the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant market are declining, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the price of domestic fluorite is lower. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite market in the North declines, and the price of fluorite market has some support, so there is little room for the price of fluorite to fall.

In the past three months, the market price of R22 in the refrigerant market has been greatly reduced. Major air-conditioning manufacturers have been overhauling in succession, with low demand. In addition, due to the influence of quotas, the market supply is normal, and the refrigerant price is constantly falling. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer starts high, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the industry is optimistic. According to the data monitoring of Yishe society, as of October 25, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16000 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang science and Technology Co., Ltd. is 13300 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated in 12500 yuan / ton – 14000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of fluorite market and downstream refrigerant industry, fluorite price remains firm, and R22 price has the potential of bottoming and rebounding. However, hydrofluoric acid market supply is sufficient, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will maintain a low volatility trend in the later period.

I. price trend

PS market trend is generally stable, with some small losses. The demand of downstream factories is not smooth and there are not many transactions. Traders are more cautious in operation, some of them still intend to ship goods. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9550-10700 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 10500-12000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS, 525, is 9800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS, 525, is 9600 yuan / ton. The situation of market transaction and shipment is weak, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

III. future forecast

The overall trend of PS market is mainly stable, and there is a certain space for negotiation in terms of actual goods. Traders are willing to ship goods, but the sales situation is still not optimistic, both traders and downstream factories are less accepting. PS market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend.

At the end of the week, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China fell slightly. On the 18th, the drop of liquid ammonia was 0.52%. This week, most of the manufacturers reported a stable decline, some of them went down 50-100 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong maintained stability, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, some of the ammonia production in Shandong is surplus, especially the supply of some manufacturers in Shandong is relatively loose, and the delivery pressure of enterprises is relatively low. Gradually increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is mainly stable, and the main quotation in Shandong is 2900-3000 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in North China is also slightly higher than that before the festival, which leads to the current ammonia storage and the price decline, but the increase is not large. Within 100 yuan, due to the large number of shutdown enterprises in Shanxi, the problems of transportation restrictions still exist, and the lack of downstream demand support, the shipping pressure increases significantly, and the market declines. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2800 yuan / ton up and down.

The transportation of vehicles under the Fifth Five Year Plan in Hebei Province is blocked, and most of the enterprises are limited in production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises such as China and Afghanistan leads to weak demand in the downstream. The enterprises have accumulated a lot of inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

This week, there was a slight downward trend in Central China, and the delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is in a bad atmosphere, and weak operation, with the mainstream quotation of 2700 yuan / ton in Henan Province.

In the future, the business club believes that the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the increase in ammonia output in most regions after the festival, and the possibility of continuing to explore low prices is not ruled out in the near future.

Commodity index: PACl commodity index on October 20 was 108.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.33% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.68% from 100.90, the lowest point on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: for the main monitoring manufacturers of the business association, on October 11, the main quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 2000 yuan / ton, and on October 20, the main quotation of the market was 2100 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.5%, with little fluctuation. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is 1850-2200 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) and 350-500 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%). After the highest price was raised during the shutdown last month, some manufacturers still maintain this price until now, but The prices of most manufacturers have not changed much.

Industrial chain: in the middle of October, in the recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business agency was 156.37 yuan / ton on the 11th market, 180 yuan / ton on the 20th, up 3.97%. This month, the downstream demand of PACl is stable. At present, the production of PACl manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan Province is normal, the supply of goods is normal, and the market price changes little.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth. The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. In the first and middle of October, the production and supply of relevant manufacturers were normal.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current supply of goods and downstream demand are stable, and the production cost is increased. However, the manufacturer has prepared goods, which has little impact, and the recent trend is still stable.

I. price trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated and fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the average price of the aggregate MDI market at the beginning of this week was 13075 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the weekend was 12700 yuan / ton, down 2.87% in the week. The price was stable compared with the same period last month, and the price was down 9.29% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell in shock. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price of main factories fell, which depressed the market mentality, and the market trading was depressed. The industry was lack of confidence in the future. The decline of offer made profits for shipment, and the low price offer was frequent. On Monday (10.14), Ningbo Wanhua announced the maintenance plan, which greatly boosted the market mentality. The next day, the market trading and buying picked up, and the volume of transactions was significant. Those who have offered to push up one after another, but the price rise has depressed market buying, the overall atmosphere continues to fall, the rise has not been continued.

In terms of market, as of Friday (10.18), the MDI market of North China polymerization was in shock and consolidation, with weak on-site inquiry and purchase, poor transaction follow-up, slightly tight holding of goods, and firm offer. At present, Shanghai’s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and pm200′s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 12900-13000 yuan / ton. The MDI market of East China polymerization is in a stalemate. The overall atmosphere in the market is weak and the transaction is not smooth. The offer of the company is firm and the price is low. At present, the quotation of Shanghai drum delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and that of pm200 drum delivery with bills is 13000-13100 yuan / ton. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation, the overall atmosphere of the market is weak, the transaction is not smooth, the industry reported stable waiting for the market, sporadic low prices have been heard. At present, the quotation of Shanghai barreled delivery with bills is about 12000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of pm200 barreled delivery with bills is about 13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market rose. The price of external market is mainly rising, and CFR China’s price rise drives the domestic market. Crude oil prices rose at the end of the day, the East China market opened higher, the market price continued to rise, and the downstream styrene also showed a rising trend. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the market is generally positive. The downstream recovery speed is less than expected, and the buying enthusiasm is not good. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

Aniline: in the week, the domestic aniline Market negotiation is stable, the supply of Shandong market is limited, the large factories in East China market mainly sell the cargo, the domestic manufacturers have no pressure on the inventory, it is expected that the aniline negotiation will be stable in the near future. Shandong and North China’s mainstream reference price to 7760 yuan / ton acceptance; East China’s market mainstream price reference 8000 yuan / ton acceptance factory. (Note: the rise and fall of factories and markets in North China are calculated according to the rise and fall of cash)

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: the supplier’s slow delivery speed, the spot tension in the field will continue, the quantity of goods held by the business community is not large, and the business community holds the attitude of low price and reluctant to sell. The northern heat preservation project is coming to an end, and there is still a stock of raw materials in the downstream, which will be supplemented to some extent this week, while the price of foaming agent is in short supply, so the demand is hard to say good. According to the MDI analyst of the business community, the domestic aggregate MDI market will be biased next week. Strong consolidation, little fluctuation space, focus on factory policy and market trading.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.19% from 1796.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 18.11% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 83.72 on October 12.

II. Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this week is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation is in progress in Shandong Province, and agricultural demand is gradually rising, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the National Day has passed, environmental protection policies and transportation difficulties have weakened, and downstream construction has increased, and downstream demand for urea has also started to rise. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong will fluctuate in the short term.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products rose and fell: the price of natural gas rose significantly, with a 15.16% increase from 2793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3216.67 at the end of the week, down 23.87% year-on-year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, with a 3.65% decrease from 3286.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 11.55% year-on-year. Urea cost is generally supported. This week, the downstream melamine quotation is temporarily stable, and the purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

III. future forecast

In the middle of October, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate. After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the operating rate picked up, and the production capacity rose. Business urea analysts believe that after the national day, environmental protection policies and safety inspection and other factors weakened, downstream construction increased, downstream purchase intention increased, coupled with the current farming is in progress, agricultural demand also increased. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fluctuate in the middle of October.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 225.00 yuan/ton, which is 6.32% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 70.63 on October 11.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride factory quotation at weekend is 2200 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution quotation at weekend is 2250 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

III. future forecast

Potassium chloride Market in mid-October overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic price of p-xylene increased this week. The average price at the weekend was 6,800 yuan/ton, which was 3.03% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 38.18% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has risen, the domestic PX start-up rate has maintained more than 70%, Hongrun 600,000 tons of new plant is running steadily, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is running steadily, Fuhai Chuang plant is starting a line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running steadily, Yangtze petrochemical PX plant is running normally, Jinling petrochemical plant is running steadily, Qingdao Lidong plant is running at full load, Qilu petrochemical plant is loading. Running stably, Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Unit operated normally, domestic p-xylene supply was normal, affected by the rise of external price, domestic p-xylene market price trend rose. This week, the opening rate of p-xylene plant in Asia is more than 70%, the supply of PX in Asia is normal. This week, the price of PX external market rises. By the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 813-815 US dollars/ton CFR China. Affected by the rising international crude oil prices, the price of PX external market rose 15 US dollars/ton this week, and more than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. Export, PX external closing price has a positive impact on the domestic market, the domestic PX market price trend is rising.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic crude oil closing price rose slightly. As of November 11, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $54.70 per barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was $60.51 per barrel. Overall, this week’s crude oil closing price rose, which has a certain cost support effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market rose. This week, the downstream PTA market price fluctuation, as of the end of the weekend, East China PTA market talks around 5100-5200 yuan self-lifting, the upstream raw material PX market price trend rose, PTA start-up load recently maintained about 87.5%, supply-side equipment overhaul and empty PX market, terminal demand slightly changed, polyester start-up remained stable. The downstream polyester start-up load is near 90%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is kept at 78%. The profit of terminal textile texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 78%, and the purchasing mood is general. The prices of Main polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are stable, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the price rise of p-xylene market is limited.

Industry: This week’s textile industry trend remained volatile, textile industry start-up rate changed little, crude oil prices rose slightly, raw material PX market rose.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that crude oil prices have been volatile in recent years, but PTA market prices have been weak, PX external prices have not changed much, downstream textile industry has maintained a high start-up rate, domestic PX market supply is normal, and the price of PX market is expected to maintain the level of 6,800 yuan/ton next week.

Price Trend

Mainstream domestic prices of styrene continued to decline this week, according to a large number of data monitored by business associations. According to data from business associations, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (Oct. 07) was 8666.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday (Oct. 11), the price of sample enterprises was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.81%, which was 30.40% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products:

Styrene market prices fell sharply this week. Internationally, as of Thursday (October 10), Asian Styrene CFR China closed at $965-985 per ton, down $22.5 per ton; FOB Korea closed at $935-955 per ton, down $22.5 per ton. On the domestic side, the supply of styrene market is in good condition, the oil market has fallen sharply. After the National Day, the demand side has not been improved. The downstream maintains low demand, the recovery demand increases slowly, which is lower than the expectation of the merchants. Some of the pre-maintenance devices are at the end, the supply of domestic goods is increasing, and the stock pickup is poor. In addition, the volume of imported styrene arrives at the port in the early period of the National Day is large. As a result, Post-Savings styrene port stocks remain high. In recent years, the cost price of styrene has declined slightly, and domestic enterprises have kept the profit space. After the quotation of domestic enterprises has been lowered, they have basically stabilized temporarily. Most of them wait and see. The traditional mentality of “buy up, don’t buy down” influences the market into the short-term buyer’s market.

Industrial chain:

On the upstream side, crude oil prices continued to fall sharply before the festival this week, with Brent crude oil falling 5.8% and WTI crude oil falling 5.94%. Pure benzene prices are affected by crude oil. This week, prices continued to fall, falling by 1.95% this week. Ethylene also fell, down 3.29% this week. On the downstream side, PS and EPS declined slightly, PS declined 0.68% and EPS declined 3.69%. Downstream enterprises have a general start-up rate, downstream buying is not active, and the market for styrene has fallen. Styrene production enterprises still maintain a certain profit margin, but the space is narrow, the entire industrial chain, lack of strong and empty.

Industry:

Overall, this week’s styrene market prices have fallen sharply, the decline has increased, most domestic enterprises have reduced prices and promoted sales, downstream mainstay low demand, spot maintains the “buy-up-do-not-buy-down” mentality, wait-and-see increases, some market holders profit-taking, profit and short clouds, the current market temporary consolidation slight decline in consolidation situation.

3. Prospects for the Later Period

International oil prices and energy prices have fallen continuously this week. Domestic enterprises are stepping up inventory and trading is flat. Styrene is expected to be dominated by low-level consolidation next week.

Market Review

According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province shook and fell in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2730 yuan/ton, at the end of the month, it was about 2410 yuan/ton, and fell by 11.72% in the month.

quotations analysis

Products: This month, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province shocked. At the beginning of this month, the market of dichloromethane continued to rise at the end of August, with an overall increase of about 100 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise at a high level. After mid-month, due to poor downstream demand, the market of dichloromethane continued to decline. Towards the end of this month, due to factors such as National Day holiday stocks, prices gradually warmed up. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2590 yuan/ton; that in East China is about 2700-2900 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 2850 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, about 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 90% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry chain: Upstream, the natural gas market continued to decline after a slight recovery, with an average price of 2973 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2793 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 6.05%. In the liquid chlorine market, the overall steady decline in the month, the downstream demand is not satisfactory, and the shipment price of mainstream enterprises has slightly fallen, with the current enterprises reporting an additional 200-300 yuan/ton. Downstream, the domestic refrigerant market entered the off-season demand is not good, the pharmaceutical and agricultural markets and solvent industries affected by the National Day, started to work smoothly, purchase just needed.

Future Market Forecast

After the National Day, the downstream industry and traders of dichloromethane have a high enthusiasm for purchasing and replenishing stores, a better trading atmosphere, stable supply of production enterprises, better transportation and logistics, and the market of dichloromethane is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices rose first and then fell in September, and zinc price shocks were adjusted. Overall, zinc market shocks remained stable in September, the pressure of good news and bad news was offset, and zinc price shocks remained stable. As of September 30, the price of 0 × zinc ingot was 19040.00 yuan / ton, up 0.46% compared with 19026.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 16.05% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis
In September, the processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate remained high at about 6500-6750 yuan/metal ton, while that of imported zinc concentrate remained around 280 dollars/dry ton. Compared with zinc price, zinc processing cost accounted for more than 30%, zinc ingot processing cost remained high and zinc ingot cost was high. High processing cost limited the falling space of zinc price, and zinc price had limited falling space.

Domestic Zinc Production

From the figure, we can see that zinc production rose sharply in August, domestic zinc production increased significantly in 2019, and zinc production increased by 18.9% in August compared with the same period last year; from January to August, domestic zinc production increased by 8.2%, zinc production increased, zinc supply increased, supply shortage alleviated, excess supply increased, and pressure on zinc price to fall increased.

Downstream demand

As can be seen from the figure above, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics show that the construction area of real estate increased steadily in 2019, and the construction area of real estate increased by 8.8% in January-August. The growth of real estate construction area shows that the fixed demand of the real estate market is still in existence and the demand of zinc city is declining with limited strength. At the same time, we can see from the chart below that in 2019, the new construction area of real estate decreased year-on-year, the real estate market declined compared with 2018, the demand of zinc market was insufficient, and the demand of real estate for zinc market was rising, but the benefits were limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in August 2019, there were 1 million 991 thousand vehicles and 1 million 958 thousand vehicles, with an increase of 10.3% and 8% compared with the same period, down 0.5% and 6.9% from the same period last year. From January to August, automobile production and sales fell by 12.1% and 11.0% compared with the same period last year, with 15.939 million vehicles and 16.104 million vehicles. The decline in production and sales continued to narrow compared with January to July. Automobile production and sales increased annually, but still declined year-on-year, and the total number of vehicles in August still did not reach 2 million. Although the overall decline of the industry has changed, the pressure faced by the industry has not been effectively alleviated. With the sharp decline of automobile production and sales and the decrease of demand for zinc ingots, the zinc market does not have enough power to rise.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: cost: zinc concentrate processing fees remain high, zinc ingot costs are high, zinc market has limited downward space, zinc market has upward pressure. In terms of supply and demand, the domestic zinc ingot production rose sharply in 2019, the supply of zinc increased, and the construction area of real estate increased overall. However, the newly added construction area declined to a certain extent. The growth of demand for zinc was limited. The production and sales of automobile industry continued to decline sharply. The demand for zinc was negative, and the overall zinc supply increased sharply and the demand was limited. In summary, the high cost of zinc ingot and the pressure of zinc price increase are great, but due to the imbalance between supply and demand, supply increases substantially, demand decreases, zinc price has pressure to fall. In a word, zinc market can not rise or fall, and it is expected that the fluctuation of zinc price will remain stable in the future.