Price trend

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the BOPP market fell first and then rose this month. As of May 30th, the price of 18 μ BOPP film was around 9816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.9% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appeared at the end of this month, at 9816.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared at the beginning of the month, at a price of about 9633.33 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7964.29 yuan/ton, which is about 1.55% higher than the price level at the beginning of the month (7842.86 yuan/ton). The highest point of the price appeared in the latter half of the year, at 7964.29 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the middle of the first half, at a price of about 7712.50 yuan/ton. The cost side fluctuates and rises, while crude oil prices fluctuate, providing strong support for BOPP prices.

In terms of supply: After the holiday, the maintenance equipment has been gradually restarted, and the supply is gradually increasing, with sufficient supply on the supply side.

In terms of demand: fluctuations in crude oil prices, downstream products stocking up ahead of price increases, increased willingness to purchase, improved trading atmosphere, and stronger support on the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

The cost side of BOPP fluctuates and rises, and the market trading atmosphere improves. Then, overall demand is weak, and it is expected that BOPP prices will rise slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 1.20%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 6816 yuan/ton on May 29th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 1.92%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has dropped this month. In the first half of May, the price of phosphoric acid showed a weak decline. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, cost support has weakened, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid has followed the trend of raw materials downward. Downstream rigid procurement, with a resistance to high prices. The demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market is stable, and the market is steadily consolidating. In the second half of May, the price of phosphoric acid slightly decreased after an increase. The high prices of raw materials have been consolidated, with support from the cost side. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with limited new orders in the market. As of May 29th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6400-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6300-7200 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. In May, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fell, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was average. In the first half of the year, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was light, with a downward focus on the market. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by price pressures, and many manufacturers did not provide external quotations, with negotiations being the main focus. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is still good in the middle of the month. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, and the inventory is controllable. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly raise prices. In the latter half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. High end prices will be lowered, while low-end prices will be adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, with a stalemate between upstream and downstream operations. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-22900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The phosphate ore market slightly improved in May. The price increase within the month is 0.58%. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply and demand sides provide stable market support. In the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate in a stable, medium, and strong manner. As of May 29th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the phosphoric acid market has been steadily consolidating and operating recently. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stagnant and consolidating, with average cost support. There is insufficient trading in the hot process phosphoric acid market, and there is still support for the demand side of wet process phosphoric acid. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market price of benzoic acid first rose and then fell in May. As of May 28th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9316 yuan/ton, an increase from 9100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with an overall increase of 2.38%.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has risen after a decline this month. On May 27th, the price of mixed xylene was 7660 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the beginning of the month. The concentrated release of bearish news in the international crude oil market in early May has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil, causing weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices and weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. The significant decline in Asian mixed xylene prices has had a bearish impact on the domestic market. In the latter half of the year, international crude oil fluctuated upwards, mixed xylene port inventories decreased, supply decreased, and the market rose.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid rose first and then fell this month. On May 28th, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the supply and demand of acetic acid were strong, inventory continued to decline, and prices remained strong, with a mid month increase of 4.49%. However, as downstream acetic acid companies resisted high prices, the market price of acetic acid gradually fell in the second half of the month.

In terms of demand

Downstream polyester shipments are slow, and inventory continues to operate at high levels to alleviate recent inventory pressure. Factories have concentrated production cuts, indicating a strong intention to support the market. Therefore, it is necessary to replenish raw materials appropriately and continue to stock up on demand. There is a possibility of a certain downward trend in the trading center on the market.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the cost support for isophthalic acid is limited, there is no significant fluctuation in the fundamentals, the purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and the overall market atmosphere is relatively light. It is expected that the market price of isophthalic acid will remain relatively stable.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the BOPP market prices rose last week. As of May 27th, the mainstream quoted price for 18 μ m BOPP film by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 9783.33 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.56% from last week’s average price and about 1.56% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP increased first and then decreased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7907.14 yuan/ton, which is 0.82% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP first rises and then falls, providing some support for the cost side of BOPP prices.

In terms of supply: the operating load rate of membrane enterprises increased slightly, the supply side increased, and the inventory pressure of membrane enterprises increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises mostly restock for urgent needs, with weak willingness to restock, cautious procurement, weak transaction volume, and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

The overall price of upstream raw materials has fluctuated upwards, and the cost side has increased support for the market. However, downstream demand enterprises are cautious in procurement, mainly restocking, and transactions are weak. It is expected that BOPP prices will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6925.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The acrylic acid market is mainly stable this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, with limited cost support. The utilization rate of production capacity in the supply side industry has slightly improved, and downstream procurement is cautious. Just in need, the follow-up is average, and factories tend to maintain a stable trend, with some offering discounts and receiving orders. Dealer quotations are mainly negotiated with the company.

Cost side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on May 23 was 6726.60, a decrease of 1.09% compared to May 1 (6800.60). The recent fluctuations in raw material propylene prices have had little impact on the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current supply side inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly based on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the short-term cost impact may still be limited. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 23, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 38433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has increased this week. On May 23rd, the price of pure benzene was 8833 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from last week. The domestic supply of pure benzene has decreased, driven by the styrene market, downstream transactions have been more active, and port destocking has accelerated. Short term spot shortages are difficult to change.

Nitric acid: Domestic nitric acid prices have decreased this week. On May 23, the price of nitric acid was 1866 yuan/ton, and on May 16, it was 1913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.45% from last week. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is sufficient, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly sells orders, and the market transaction situation is poor

Recently, the textile market has entered a traditional off-season, and foreign trade orders have also declined. The demand for dyes is not optimistic. The downstream epoxy resin market is in urgent need of follow-up, with limited trading volume. It is expected that the market for meta phenylenediamine will operate steadily with a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic furfural (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market fluctuated and declined this week. On May 11th, the average quoted price of furfural was 9575.00 yuan/ton (including tax), and on May 17th, it was 9425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57%.

Cost side: Currently, the main production of furfural in China is corn cobs, and sulfuric acid is generally used as the catalyst. The domestic sulfuric acid market prices have fallen this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 247 yuan/ton on May 13th, and 242 yuan/ton on May 17th, a decrease of 1.98%. The short-term sulfuric acid market is mainly sluggish, mainly due to insufficient demand and difficulty in digesting products. In the later stage, it depends on the production situation of terminal fertilizer enterprises.

On the demand side, the domestic furfuryl alcohol (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market has declined this week. On May 11th, the average quoted price of furfuryl alcohol was 10175.00 yuan/ton (including tax), while on May 17th, it was 10150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25%.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Furfural Products, the upstream sulfuric acid market for furfural continues to decline, while the downstream furfural alcohol market fluctuates slightly. Furfural supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected that furfural may experience a weak decline in the near future.

This week (5.12-5.17), the price of monoethanolamine slightly decreased, with a range of 20 yuan/ton. According to statistics from Business Society, as of May 17th, the mainstream market price of monoethanolamine (with a domestic content of 99.9%) was between 10300-10600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week.

In terms of cost:

This week, the price of ethylene oxide has slightly decreased, at a rate of 100 yuan/ton. According to data from Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% from last week’s average price of 7000 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6900 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6900 yuan/ton.

From the industrial chain diagram, ethanolamine, as a downstream product of ethylene oxide, accounts for 11%. Recently, the production enterprises of ethanolamine have been stable, with moderate profit levels and no significant fluctuations. Due to its wide range of uses, monoethanolamine has been applied in various fields such as textiles, printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, etc. Therefore, its market demand is relatively stable and there has been no significant growth point.

On May 15th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.06%. The main reason is that some equipment in the northern main production area has been repaired due to malfunctions, and the contraction of the supply surface has brought benefits. On Wednesday, major factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei and Henan provinces generally raised prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation, and dealer quotes have followed suit.

Overall

The market for monoethanolamine has remained stable with a slight decline, while the market price for raw material ethylene oxide has stabilized after a decline. Although the liquid ammonia market has seen a slight upward trend, its increase is not enough to support a significant rebound in monoethanolamine prices. The demand for monoethanolamine in the market varies, with downstream users mainly purchasing on demand, and some market prices have been lowered. Further observation of downstream demand for monoethanolamine is needed for subsequent price changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from May 13th to 17th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11537 yuan/ton to 11262 yuan/ton, with a 2.38% decrease in price during the cycle, a 3.74% month on month decrease, and a 40.45% year-on-year increase. Some production enterprises in certain regions have increased their exports, while merchants have clear expectations for domestic production growth in the later period. The downward trend in the market has intensified the cautious attitude of downstream inquiries, resulting in a weak transaction atmosphere and further affecting the downward pressure on supplier prices.

Cost side: In terms of crude oil, international oil prices have overall declined, and Federal Reserve officials have hinted that interest rate cuts will not come soon. The market is concerned that high interest rates will continue to pressure the economy and demand, and the International Energy Agency has lowered its global demand growth forecast. As of May 16th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $83.27 per barrel.

In terms of naphtha, the market for naphtha continues to decline, and international oil prices are weak, exacerbating market bearish sentiment and weakening cost support. There has been no actual improvement in the demand for terminal ethylene cracking, and it is still in a stagnant state. As of May 17th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe Naphtha is 8054.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene twice to 11400 yuan/ton. The maintenance device has been restarted, and there is a production plan for the new production capacity, resulting in an increase in output. The supply of butadiene is affected by negative factors..

On the demand side, although there are signs of a downward shift in industrial chain profits, downstream industries have not seen a significant improvement in production. Coupled with expectations for future supply growth, market fundamentals are mainly bearish, dragging the market down continuously. Negative factors affecting the demand for butadiene.

As of the closing price on May 16th, the external price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported 1375-1385 US dollars/ton; China CFR report 1385-1395 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1155-1165 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1065-1075 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 # and Fujian United and other facilities have plans to restart in the next cycle. Domestic production is expected to increase, and although the profit of the industrial chain has shifted downwards, downstream industry construction has not improved significantly. Coupled with weak performance in the external market, there is little positive support in the market. Business Society Butadiene Analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of May 16th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43500 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42166.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with upstream prices of iron phosphate remaining stable and limited growth in lithium carbonate. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average, and downstream demand is poor. Currently, the supply and demand balance in the lithium iron phosphate market is mainly dominant.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: After the May Day holiday, the upstream lithium carbonate price has remained stable with a strong trend, inventory has remained high, downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable, and the upstream iron phosphate price will remain stable with a small range of price fluctuations. It is expected that the current price trend will remain the main trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, the current market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is insufficient, upstream lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices lack upward momentum, and lithium iron phosphate lacks upward momentum. It is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term, with the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate remaining around 43500 yuan/ton and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate remaining around 42200 yuan/ton.

Recently (5.1-5.11), the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from 2770 yuan/ton on the 1st. The high prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to support the cost of trichloromethane. Downstream production remains low, while terminal procurement performance is mediocre; The market for trichloromethane has slightly declined.

Recently (5.1-5.11), domestic methane chloride production has slightly increased.

Recently (5.1-5.11), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have been running at high levels, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2684 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% from 2651 yuan/ton on the first day. As of May 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 500 yuan/ton, which is higher than the 400 yuan/ton at the end of April.

Recently (5.1-5.11), downstream refrigerant R22 has been operating at a low level, providing weak support for the demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with limited support for demand for trichloromethane. As the downstream peak season gradually ends, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently (5.1-5.11). On May 11th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08% from 7680 yuan/ton on the first day.

International crude oil weak volatility, mixed xylene cost support weakened

Recently (5.1-5.11), the concentrated release of bearish news in the international crude oil market has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil, causing weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices and weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of May 10th, WTI06 contract settlement is $79.26/barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $83.88 per barrel. The significant decline in Asian mixed xylene prices has had a bearish impact on the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $951 to $952 per ton as of May 10th.

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the supply pressure has slightly eased

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the pressure on port supply has slightly eased. It is understood that as of May 9th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 55000 tons, significantly lower than the end of April.

Starting production of xylene and increasing the required support for mixed xylene recovery

Part of the preliminary maintenance equipment has gradually restarted operation, and the domestic PX production has significantly rebounded. As of May 10th, PX production has increased to around 790%. However, in the later stage, domestic PX units such as Weilian Chemical and Ningbo Daxie are planned to be shut down for maintenance. In addition, the 400000 ton unit of SK Line 2 in South Korea is planned to be repaired for one and a half months, making it difficult to significantly improve PX production in the later stage, and the support for mixed xylene is limited. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 10th, the closing price in the Asian region is 987-989 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1012-1014 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is operating steadily, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride starting from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is operating steadily, while Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Recently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The production situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has slightly decreased, and the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has remained low. As a result, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of May 10th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has remained around 70%. There is some support for the improvement of mixed xylene, but the later improvement support is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that in the short term, international crude oil will experience weak consolidation, and the cost support for mixed xylene will weaken; The increase in downstream PX production has certain support for mixed xylene,But the support for later improvement is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of pure benzene was 8758 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% compared to last week. The transaction of pure benzene is still acceptable, and there is sufficient supply on the market.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of nitric acid was 1876 yuan/ton, and on May 2nd, it was 1856 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to last week. At present, the market atmosphere is active, and downstream demand continues to improve.

M-phenylenediamine: The price of m-phenylenediamine in China has increased this week. On May 9th, the price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.73% compared to last week. The demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products in downstream markets has improved.

The trading volume of resorcinol in the market this week was very low. The cost support is strengthening, and the downstream resin tire industry lacks information guidance, leading to a recovery in the dye and pesticide intermediate markets. It is expected that the market situation for resorcinol will be relatively strong.

Recent trends in urea prices

This month, the domestic urea market has experienced ups and downs. At the beginning of the month, the urea market continued the inertia downward trend of the previous month. Subsequently, due to supply tightening and an increase in factory orders, urea prices continued to rise, and the upward trend continued until mid month. In the latter half of the month, the market fell in a bearish atmosphere of the Indian market. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong Province increased from 2415 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2435 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a growth rate of 0.86%.

From the supply side, the average operating rate of urea enterprises this month is around 80%, and the daily production of urea in China is about 180000 tons, with supply slightly tightening compared to the previous month. Within the month, the factory prices of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong rebounded after falling, and the overall change was not significant, with the fluctuation controlled within 100 yuan/ton.

From the upstream market perspective:

Liquefied natural gas: In April, the liquefied natural gas market showed a strong upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4114 yuan/ton, which is 3870 yuan/ton compared to the average price on April 1st. The increase in domestic liquefied natural gas prices this month was 6.30%. High natural gas prices provide support for downstream urea production.

Coal: Coal has been operating weakly this month. Taking thermal coal as an example, prices fell in April, with a decrease of 2.54%. Overall, normal production and sales are maintained, and the market is operating weakly. The implementation of long-term cooperative shipping is still the main focus, and the overall supply level of coal has slightly decreased. Traders tend to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude due to their average willingness to ship due to their uncertainty about the future market. The negative performance of upstream coal has alleviated certain cost pressures for downstream coal urea enterprises.

Liquid ammonia: In April, the domestic liquid ammonia market was mainly volatile and fell, emerging from a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a decline of 2.93% in April. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2800-3000 yuan/ton. In the future, the tight supply pattern in the northern main production areas may continue for a period of time, and ammonia prices will be supported on the supply side. On the demand side, the replenishment in the early stage is gradually ending, agricultural demand is gradually falling, industrial demand remains in demand, and may form constraints on ammonia prices in the future. The supply-demand game will intensify in the future, with narrow price fluctuations, and the impact on urea prices will be relatively small in the future.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Spring plowing is gradually coming to an end, with sporadic fertilization as the main focus. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises have started production at a low level, and the industry lacks confidence in trading and investment, with a focus on essential procurement. The market price of melamine fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.44% compared to the price on April 1st.

Looking at the future: urea analysts from Business Society believe that in May, it is expected that the urea market in Shandong will maintain a narrow adjustment pattern. Although upstream raw material support for urea is strong, downstream agricultural demand may slow down due to seasonal weakening of procurement, with industrial demand being the main focus, especially exports being affected by insufficient Indian procurement, and prices may loosen.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of tetrahydrofuran in China slightly declined in April. At the end of the month, the price of tetrahydrofuran remained at 13333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the initial price of 13500 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 3.13%.

Supply side: In April, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors slightly decreased, with average inventory levels and average on-site sales.

Cost side: The maleic anhydride factory mainly executes preliminary orders, and the overall market trading is average, with a slight increase in the market in April. Downstream digestion of early orders is the main focus, with a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. New orders are limited, and procurement increases at the end of the month, leading to an upward trend in the market. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 1,4-butanediol has declined, with rigid demand contracts trading and light spot trading. The price of 1,4-butanediol has dropped from 9328.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9071.43 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.76%. The domestic BDO market is weak and downward, with light spot trading; The pressure on on-site inventory is still present and entering a new cycle, causing pressure on holding manufacturers to ship goods. Negotiations for discounts on actual orders have led to a weak market focus and a downward trend. The upstream raw material market prices have fallen, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected, resulting in a slight decrease in tetrahydrofuran prices.

On the demand side: In April, the price trend of spandex in the market declined. At the end of the month, the price of spandex was 29875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65% from the initial price of 30375 yuan/ton. In recent years, the concentration of the domestic spandex industry has been continuously increasing, and the industry’s leading effect is obvious. The expansion of production capacity has significantly overlapped with the average performance of downstream terminal textile demand in recent years. The downstream spandex market is weak and declining, and downstream customers are less actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran, resulting in a slight decline in the tetrahydrofuran market.

Looking at the future: In the short term, the BDO market is weak and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that the short-term domestic tetrahydrofuran market is not supported by favorable conditions, and it is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in the future.

The market for butadiene rubber slightly declined in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57% from 13610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the market price of butadiene remained high, while the cost center of butadiene rubber remained high; The overall load of butadiene rubber is not high, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not high; Downstream tire production has slightly declined from a high level, and demand has weakened in the face of rigid demand support for butadiene rubber. In addition, downstream resistance to high priced sources has led to a high level decline in butadiene rubber production. As of April 30th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber market in East China is 13200-13400 yuan/ton.

In the first half of April, the domestic production of butadiene rubber slightly increased; In the second half of April, the domestic production of butadiene rubber slightly decreased, and as of the end of April, the production of butadiene rubber plants was around 55%.

In April, the price of butadiene remained high, and there is still strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 11525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly weakened, weakening support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of the end of April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region increased from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 7.1% in the middle of the month, and then continued to decline to 6.4% at the end of the month; Downstream customers tend to stock up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is still strong; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and there are also plans for later maintenance and restart, resulting in variables in the supply of butadiene rubber; At present, downstream tire enterprises have experienced slight fluctuations in production, with the main support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market may narrow down in the later stage under the support of cost and low production.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has remained stable recently (4.22-4.30). As of April 30th, the average market price in Henan region was 7550 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to the average price of 7550 yuan/ton on April 22nd. The price remains unchanged throughout the cycle.

Recently, the ice crystal market has been operating on a wait-and-see basis, and enterprise ice crystal quotations have remained stable. The overall resumption of work and production in the upstream fluorite market is progressing slowly, with strong consolidation of fluorite prices and tight supply of raw materials, resulting in strong pressure on the cost of cryolite. However, due to the obvious resistance of the downstream towards high priced cryolite and the limited trading atmosphere in the market, the downstream market is mostly bearish. Therefore, with strong raw material prices, most cryolite manufacturers still offer stable prices. As of April 30th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is relatively strong and rising, with an average market price of 3675.00 yuan/ton as of April 30, an increase of 1.03% compared to the price of 3637.50 yuan/ton on April 22. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with tension in upstream mining and the continuous elimination of outdated mines. In terms of new mines, the progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite market is slow. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and some mines have undergone safety hazard inspections. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of goods on site is tight, resulting in a continuous increase in fluorite prices.

Market forecast: The upstream market of cryolite is relatively strong, with high cost pressure on cryolite and a positive impact on mentality. Downstream demand is average and there is resistance to cryolite prices. Actual market trading is limited, but facing the continuous rise in upstream prices, cryolite enterprises may face pressure to increase their prices,