Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this month. The price of hydrochloric acid rose from 166.67 yuan/ton on October 1 to 186.67 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 12.00%. The price at the end of the month fell 58.88% year-on-year.

On October 27, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 47.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.65% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 163.46% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support improved and downstream procurement weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and the downstream demand was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, giving hydrochloric acid some support. The downstream ammonium chloride market declined slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride fell from 1012.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 980.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 3.21% and a year-on-year decline of 15.15%. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 2043.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2011.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.59%, and a year-on-year drop of 23.30% compared with the same period last year. Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the middle and first ten days of November, the market of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market is average, and the cost support is average. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The analysts of the business association believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

In October, the domestic propane market trend was relatively strong, and Shandong propane market rose first and then declined, with an overall increase. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5578.25 yuan/ton on October 1 and 5645.75 yuan/ton on October 26, with a monthly increase of 1.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%.

As of October 26, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., October 26

In South China, 5450-5550 yuan/ton

North China, 5750-5800 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5730 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5700-5850 yuan/ton

In October, the trend of domestic propane market was relatively firm, and the ex factory price of Shandong propane market rose first and then fell. After the National Day holiday, the domestic propane market was driven by the rise of international crude oil during the holiday, ushering in a wave of growth. In addition, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the holiday. The enthusiasm for entering the market was good, the manufacturers had a firm attitude, and the price increased widely. Subsequently, with the decline of international crude oil, the market mentality was affected. The downstream was cautious, and the delisting consumed inventory. The market trading atmosphere was weaker than in the early stage, and the propane market price fell back. However, in October as a whole, Shandong’s propane market rose more than its decline.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 590 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars/ton from last month; Butane was 560 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars/ton from last month.

On the 27th, near the end of the month, supported by the cost side, the international crude oil rose by 3% on a single day, bringing obvious benefits to the market, and the Shandong propane market stopped falling and rising. In addition, November is coming. With the cooling weather and the arrival of the fuel market peak season, the terminal demand is expected to continue to grow. It is expected that the propane market price will be firm in November, or shake the host.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in October 2022, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to show an upward trend, and the prices continued to rise. On October 26, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 551000 yuan/ton, which was 9.94% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average domestic mixed price of industrial carbon on October 1 was 501200 yuan/ton). On October 26, the domestic mixed average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 573000 yuan/ton, which was 10.7% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (October 1: the domestic mixed average price of carbon was 517600 yuan/ton).

Market supply

By observing market changes, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise after the National Day holiday. During the holiday, the factory production was normal, and the lithium carbonate shipment was relatively stable. However, the lithium carbonate output of large factories was dominated by long delivery orders, and there were relatively few lithium carbonate orders in the market. In late October, lithium carbonate enterprises were basically in a normal state of operation, but the tight market supply situation has not been eased. However, due to the impact of epidemic control in some regions, logistics and transportation problems have greatly affected the shipment of lithium carbonate, leading to the rising price of lithium carbonate.

The most striking thing about upstream raw materials is that the auction price is known as the “lithium price vane” “Pilbara spodumene concentrate was auctioned. On October 24, Pilbara Minerals conducted a new round of lithium concentrate auction, and the bidding price was about 7255 US dollars/ton, up by 155 US dollars/ton, or 2.2%, compared with the transaction price of Pilbara on October 18, 2022. The amount of ore in this auction was 5000 tons, and the concentrate grade was 5.5%. The cost price of 1 ton of LCE was about 550000 yuan/ton. It is expected that this batch of ore will be delivered in the middle of November. Considering the logistics cycle It will enter the market in January to February.

Demand side

With the end of the holiday, the downstream inventory consumption and normal purchase demand remained unchanged, while the operating rate of the terminal market increased and the market purchase demand continued to increase. With the continuation of the “golden nine and silver ten”, new energy vehicles entered the traditional sales peak season, and the production of energy vehicles continued to increase, so the demand for battery raw materials rose, and the price rose again and again. In September 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a rapid growth, reaching 755000 vehicles and 708000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month growth of 9.3% and 6.2%.

Later this year, the new energy subsidy will completely decline, and some car enterprises will enter the demand for stock in advance, and the demand for energy batteries will increase, so the lithium battery manufacturers’ demand for raw materials will also increase significantly. Downstream production increase has driven the price increase in sentiment. The purchasing sentiment has not decreased, and the transaction price continues to rise.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream market rose. Due to the high price of spodumene in the upstream, the cost support is still strong. The lithium hydroxide market is strongly supported by the high price of lithium carbonate. However, domestic orders for lithium hydroxide exports remain hot, domestic market spot resources are limited, downstream high nickel ternary demand is steadily rising, procurement enthusiasm is high, and enterprise quotations in the lithium hydroxide market continue to rise.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate rose first and then stabilized. The rise in the price of phosphorus and iron sources before the holiday supported the price of iron phosphate. The price of lithium salt continued to rise due to the tight supply of downstream goods. The raw materials drove the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate to rise, driving the price up. Subsequently, the price of lithium iron phosphate was temporarily stable, and the tight balance was maintained under the continuous increase of lithium iron phosphate.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business community, the spot price quotation of the lithium carbonate market is still showing an upward trend. With the arrival of winter in the fourth quarter, Qinghai and other regions will be affected by low temperature, and the output may decline slightly. However, the downstream year-end stock mentality continues, and the market demand will remain high. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high and volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, this week the Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the quotation was basically stable. The average price of yellow phosphorus is 37250 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the actual market transaction price declined. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm of the downstream to get goods is not high. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises offer firm prices, and now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, but only discuss them. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation is basically unchanged.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall phosphate rock market was stable and consolidated this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 20, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on October 15. During the special period, the logistics was limited, some mining enterprises stopped production, and the information on the site was relatively quiet. Although the downstream phosphate fertilizer market continues to be weak and the demand side is generally supported, the overall offer of phosphate rock mining enterprises is mainly stable due to the tight supply.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke will be temporarily stable from October 14 to 21, 2022, and the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi will be 2600 yuan/ton as of October 21, 2022, unchanged. In the future market, the business community thinks that the environmental protection and production restriction are relatively strong in the near future, the coke enterprises have limited production, and the coke supply is generally tight. However, the overall profit of the downstream has declined in the near future, the steel price has declined, and the profits of the steel plant have been damaged. Therefore, the game mentality of coke and steel is strong in the near future, and the coke price is mainly stable in the short term.

For phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid decreased this week. On October 14, the average price of phosphoric acid was 10530 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the average price was 10390 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.33% within the week. The phosphoric acid market is average in various regions. The price of phosphoric acid is loose, and the downstream is worried that the price will continue to decline in the future. Therefore, the market is more wait-and-see, mainly just in need. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believes that the current yellow phosphorus market is weak, and the actual transaction price of the market has declined. On the whole, the upstream phosphate rock price is temporarily stabilized, and the downstream phosphate market price is lowered. The yellow phosphorus market is not good, and the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be weak in the short term.

The market of polybutadiene rubber continued to fall this week (10.17-10.24). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 12240 yuan/ton, down 4.38% from 12800 yuan/ton last Monday. On October 19, the factory price of two barrels of oil of butadiene rubber was lowered by 300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the factory price of butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was reported at 12000 yuan/ton. As of the 24th day, the price of cis-12400 yuan/ton in the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market and 11500-11900 yuan/ton in the mainstream of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market were offered by businesses with weak cost demand and preferential shipping.

The pressure on the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber has eased slightly since October. In late October, the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber was relatively tight, supporting cis polybutadiene rubber.

This week (10.17-10.24), the raw butadiene market declined slightly, and the support for the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of butadiene was 7608 yuan/ton, down 1.95% from 7775 yuan/ton last Monday.

This week (10.17-10.24), the natural rubber market declined slightly, and the support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of natural rubber was 11720 yuan/ton, down 3.38% from 12130 yuan/ton last Monday.

The demand side is weak. The downstream tire enterprises started to decline in October, and the demand side is not supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In order to reduce risks, merchants often follow the sales and purchase.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the butadiene rubber production chain has eased slightly at present, but the cost has declined, and the demand is light. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of October 21, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10500.00 yuan/ton, 3.08% lower than the price on Monday, 6.80% lower than the price on September 21, and 13.46% lower than the price on a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market fell this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, some devices in Hebei, Shandong and Zhejiang at the supply end are in shutdown state, but the demand side performance is poor. The downstream procurement intention is not high, and more wait-and-see. Only small orders just need replenishment. The delivery of the goods is not smooth, and the market supply is sufficient.

In terms of upstream and downstream: raw propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline in a narrow range this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7436 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7426 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%, up 0.05% from 30 days ago. The cost support of the propylene method was insufficient. The raw material glycerin is weak, but the cost pressure still exists. The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 19100.00 on October 20, a decrease of 6.98% compared with October 1 (20533.33).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is insufficient, the downstream buying is cautious, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the shipment of the cargo holders is under pressure. It is estimated that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell this week. On October 16, the average price of Shandong market was 4039.00 yuan/ton, 1.52% lower than the price of 4101.50 yuan/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the petroleum coke commodity index was 314.15, unchanged from yesterday, 23.13% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 369.65% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery’s petroleum coke shipments were average, the downstream demand was limited, and the price of petroleum coke fell.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three consecutive days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose slightly this week; The price of metal silicon market rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. As of October 16, the price was 18726.67 yuan/ton; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking.

The oil coke analyst of the business agency believes that: this week, the international crude oil shocks and declines, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking. The refinery shipments are under pressure. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 166.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 160.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a 4.00% drop. A year-on-year drop of 50.31%. On October 16, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 69.46% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 134.20% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 2027.50 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 2017.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.49%, 5.92% YoY compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 990.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future market forecast

In the middle and late October, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The recent low level of upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient. The low level of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the sulfur price in East China rose first and then fell this week. On October 14, the average sulfur price was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 0.65% compared with 1550.00 yuan/ton on October 8, and up 36.44% month on month.

This week, the sulfur market was put into operation. After the festival, the port arrival volume of sulfur was low, the supply of goods was tight, and the cargo holders were reluctant to sell. The market had a strong interest in price fixing. The domestic refineries had a good demand, and the enterprise shipments were smooth. The sulfur market continued to go up, and the price rose. Later, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was weakened, and the enterprise shipments were not good. Some refineries lowered their prices slightly according to their own shipments. As of the 14th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong was about 1500-1700 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1400-1650 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to rise, and the price continued to rise this week. As of October 14, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 406 yuan/ton, up 17.34% compared with 346 yuan/ton on October 8. In some regions of China, the pressure on the supply of goods has weakened due to the maintenance of plant equipment, and the market has increased. In addition, the price of raw materials has risen, which has provided good cost support, and the price of sulfuric acid has risen along the trend.

The market of monoammonium phosphate was weak and declined sharply. On October 14, the average price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in Sichuan was 2900 yuan/ton. On October 8, the average price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in Sichuan was 3150 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 7.94%. The downstream autumn fertilizer consumption is nearing the end, the demand is weak, the market support is weak, and the enterprise’s quotation is lowered according to its own shipment situation.

Future market forecast

The sulfur analysts of the business community believe that the domestic sulfur market is mainly reorganized. Although the port market is strong and the attitude of supporting the market is obvious, with the increase of port arrivals, the positive support is limited. The domestic sulfur market is wait-and-see, and the enterprise’s quotation is adjusted according to the status of the shipment clearance. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to wait and see, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

One week after the festival (10.10-14), the domestic polysilicon market was stable, and the price continued to the level before the festival, with a weekly increase of only 0.11%. As of October 14, the domestic supply price was stable, and the import supply increased slightly, with a range of 1000-2000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, at the weekend, the single-crystal compact mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy reached RMB 298-30900/ton. The supply and demand of the market are flourishing, and the supply and demand are basically balanced.

From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has significantly increased this month, and most domestic manufacturers have started work normally. Two units in the maintenance period have been recovered successively in September before, but under the influence of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia epidemics, although the production of units has not been affected, due to the impact of transportation, delivery may be delayed, and the supply has little impact. On the whole, the post holiday supply has significantly increased compared with the previous month, and the increase in silicon material supply is the main reason for the stabilization of silicon material price.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, silicon wafers continued to be stable this month. On September 27, Dachang Longji Co., Ltd. released the executive price of silicon wafers. The price was still the same as that in August, rising or falling to zero. In October, the price of large silicon chip manufacturers was not adjusted, the silicon chip commencement was generally stable, and the demand continued to advance.

In terms of terminals, the price of battery chips rose slightly after the festival. The mainstream transaction price of single-crystal M6 battery chips was stable, about 1.29 yuan/W, but the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery chips rose slightly, about 1.33 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of G12 battery chips rose to about 1.31 yuan/W. The pressure on enterprises has eased slightly. The operating rate has significantly increased. Although the market has stock before the festival, the market trading is still strong after the festival. The steady shipment of terminal components, the gradual start of domestic large-scale ground power station projects, and the overseas demand for new energy layout boosted the delivery of components.

Future market forecast: polycrystalline silicon analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand of silicon materials are basically balanced at present, and the market has stabilized due to the increase in supply. Later, with the steady growth of newly put into production capacity, and the recent absence of maintenance plans by manufacturers, prices will still be somewhat suppressed. However, the increasing downstream demand will also support the high price of silicon materials, and the market is expected to remain dominated by narrow shocks.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 13, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1064 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.91%, and compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 46 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.16%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic phosphorus ore market is generally weak after returning from the National Day holiday. The demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is generally supported. The overall cold operation of the phosphate fertilizer market has relatively affected the mentality of the phosphate rock industry. However, supported by tight supply, most mining enterprises in the field still maintain a high offer. Among them, the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou was stable after the festival, and some mining enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan reduced the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore by 10-20 yuan/ton. As of October 13, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1160-1260 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, after the National Day holiday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market rose as a whole. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 37500 yuan/ton on October 12, up 3.09% compared with October 1 (36375 yuan/ton).

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is relatively light as a whole, giving ordinary support to the phosphate ore market. The support to maintain the stability of the phosphate ore market is mainly from the continuous tension on the supply side. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly weak and consolidation operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the bromine price fell in September as a whole and rebounded at the end of the month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 45200 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was 42600 yuan/ton, down 5.75% and 11.71% year on year. On September 29, the bromine commodity index was 149.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.04% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 153.68% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine fell in the first ten days of this month, the overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries was average recently, the market transaction was still light, and the production of bromine enterprises was relatively stable. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, the downstream did not rush to purchase, and the price was intentionally lowered. Bromine prices rose in late September, mainly because bromine prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been stocking up before the National Day, and the market turnover is slightly better than in the early days. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, bromine enterprises were reluctant to sell.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose overall in September. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 1163.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 1453.33 yuan/ton. The price rose by 24.93%, 26.23% lower than the same period last year. The downstream sulfuric acid market rose, the ammonium phosphate market rose steadily, the overall transaction atmosphere improved, the National Day holiday was approaching, the downstream demand increased, the active stock up, and the support for the sulfur market was strengthened. The sulfur refinery in Shandong Province shipped smoothly, the quotation was raised, and the port continued to operate on a strong basis. The cargo holders were very optimistic about the market, and the operators were optimistic about it, which gave a positive role to the sulfur market, and the short-term sulfur market was relatively strong.

According to the analysts of the business community, the bromine price has been consolidated in the near future, and bromine enterprises intend to increase it. Near the National Day holiday, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have been actively stocking up recently. However, the supply and demand of both sides are playing a game, and bromine enterprises are reluctant to sell. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be consolidated and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (September 23 to September 30). The spot market price in East China was 16600 yuan/ton last weekend, and 16700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.6%.

Manganese ore: The overall performance of the manganese ore market is relatively cold this week. There are few deals in the market near the holiday, and the price changes are small in the days before the holiday. However, some goods will arrive in Hong Kong during the holiday. It is expected that the market price will have a slight correction after the holiday when the supply is sufficient. As of September 30, Tianjin Port (600717) had an Australian block of 45 yuan/ton, South Africa’s semi carbonic acid of 35 yuan/ton and Gabon’s 41.5 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Hong Kong Macao block is 46.5 yuan/ton, Gabon is 42.0 yuan/ton, and South Africa semi carbonate is 36.0 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. At the end of August, the price continued to stabilize after a slight rise, and at the end of September, the price recovered slightly.

The price of electrolytic manganese market started to rise slightly this week, and the enterprises had a strong attitude of price support, so the market was somewhat boosted. There is a certain demand for goods in the market near the holidays, which drives the market price to rise slightly at the end of the month. In terms of downstream demand, the market situation has been volatile recently, and procurement on demand has been maintained, and long-term cooperation has been mainly implemented, with less bulk cargo. Recently, the steel bidding situation was introduced, and the price was in a reasonable range. Most steel mills gradually resumed purchasing electrolytic manganese, which boosted the market mentality to a certain extent. However, due to the downstream demand, the market continues to be weak. It is expected that the future price will remain stable and weak, with a strong supply and demand game mentality.

Manganese and silicon: In September, the domestic silicon and manganese showed a trend of low repair and upswing. The futures market also showed a trend of bottoming out and recovery. The market activity increased, the merchants’ quotation increased, and the raw material manganese ore stopped falling and rose. In addition, some production areas were affected by public health events, and the transportation was obviously impeded, the freight also increased, and the silicon and manganese market was in a strong price fixing mood. According to the price monitoring of the business community, Ningxia (FeMN68Si18) offered 7100-7200 yuan/ton on September 29, up 2.86% from the beginning of the month.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PA66 market price rose in September, and the spot price of each brand rose. As of September 30, the ex factory price of the glue injection molding sample enterprises in the business agency PA66 was about 24750 yuan/ton on average, up or down by+11.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid trend stopped rising in September, and the continuous rise in the price of pure benzene provided impetus for adipic acid. The low starting point in the short term also supported the price. Qixiang Tengda’s accident in the first ten days did not cause serious consequences to the adiponitrile production line. In the month, the supply of hexamethylene diamine continued to be tight, and merchants were reluctant to sell. The market is improving, and enterprises and merchants have raised their offers.

The upstream raw material market is generally stronger, and the cost end support of PA66 is concentrated on the hexamethylene diamine product. In terms of the industry’s operating rate, since the previous negative market of PA66 enterprises was undertaken this month, the domestic PA66 industry’s load was not high at the beginning of the month. In addition, due to the shortage of raw materials, the market’s operating rate will not rise quickly in the future. The market’s spot supply is shrinking, and the spot market is supported by the supply side. In terms of the port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival of overseas goods is average. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises tend to maintain production just because they need to follow up on the delivery of goods, and their acceptance of high priced goods is general. This month is in the traditional peak demand season. Although the demand release of downstream factories is not as good as that of previous years, the merchants have a stable mentality, and the shipments continue to increase. The deals on the market are average, and the supply of low-cost goods decreases.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the spot price of PA66 rose in September. The raw material side market rose mainly, and the cost side support of PA66 was mainly focused on hexamethylene diamine. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the supply side is fair, and the demand side is mainly just in need of goods. It is estimated that PA66 will continue to be boosted by the cost side in the short term.

DBP prices rose slightly in September

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price in the first and second quarters of 2022 was adjusted at a high level. In June, the DBP entered the off-season, the DBP demand was low, and the DBP price in the third quarter was adjusted at a low level. As of September 30, the DBP price was 9500 yuan/ton, up 1.06% from 9400 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of “golden nine and silver ten”, the DBP market is expected to recover, and the DBP price has reached a new high. However, the plasticizer peak season in September was not strong, and the spot transaction was sluggish.

Price of raw material phthalic anhydride stabilized after soaring

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising in September. As of September 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 18.05% from 8725 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Due to the double impact of the soaring price of raw materials and the increasing maintenance of phthalic anhydride enterprises, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is tight, the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising sharply, the price of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing in the later ten days, the cost of DBP raw materials is stabilizing, and the rising power of DBP in the future market is weakened.

The price of raw material n-butanol was lowered in “M-type”

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol fell in a “M-shaped” shock in September. The price of n-butanol on September 30 was 6666.67 yuan/ton, down 2.91% from 6866.67 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day, the downstream staged stock up, and the price of n-butanol rose. After the short-term stock up, the market demand weakened, and the price of n-butanol fell rapidly. On the whole, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in September was general, the price of n-butanol fell in shock, the cost of DBP fell, and the upward momentum of DBP weakened.

Decrease in domestic PVC output

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of primary plastic in August 2022 was 8.944 million tons, down 2.6% year on year; From January to August, the output of primary form plastics totaled 73.78 million tons, up 0.6% year on year; In August, the output of plastic products was 6.441 million tons, down 6.9% year on year. From January to August, the output of plastic products was 5054.7 tons, down 4.9% year on year. The output of PVC products in the downstream declined, the demand for plasticizers declined, the demand for DBP was insufficient, and the pressure for DBP to fall was large.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the business association, in terms of raw materials, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, the price of n-butanol fell in shock, the plasticizer DBP rose strongly, and the DBP price rose slightly in shock; In terms of demand, the output of PVC products declined, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DBP increased. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride became stable in late September, the price of n-butanol became weak and stable, the cost of plasticizer DBP became stable and the demand was low. The rising support of DBP weakened the downward pressure. It is expected that the future DBP price will fluctuate and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic refrigerant R22 on September 30 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, 6.67% higher than the price of 17500.00 yuan/ton on September 1, and 27.27% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic refrigerant R134a on September 30 was 26000.00 yuan/ton, 6.85% higher than the price of 24333.33 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month, and 29.41% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the price of upstream raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, with a significant increase of 45.13% in the whole month. Hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable in the whole month, with a small decline of 0.76% in the low level in the month. In general, the price of upstream raw material continued to rise, while the price of trichloromethane rose significantly in the late period. At the same time, affected by factors such as electricity production restriction in the previous period and enterprise downtime for maintenance, the overall R22 inventory of domestic enterprises was low, the cost continued to rise, and the enterprise inventory was low, The domestic R22 market price continued to run strongly in September, supported by the downstream rigid demand.

In September, the price of hydrofluoric acid, the upstream raw material of R134a, was generally weak and stable, falling slightly by 0.76% in the month, and the price of trichloroethylene continued to rise, with an overall increase of more than 10% in the month. The cost of raw materials continued to rise, the enterprise’s inventory was relatively low, and the downstream demand remained unchanged. Supported by the cost and demand, the price of refrigerant R134a continued to run relatively strong in September.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the Business Society, the price of upstream raw materials of refrigerant continued to rise in September. At present, the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, and the overall downstream demand remains unchanged. Supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to rise in October, supported by costs.