Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the DOP market stopped falling and adjusted this week, and the DOP price stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 29, the DOP price was 11900.00 yuan / ton, down 13.77% from 13800.00 yuan / ton on March 1, and stabilized from 11900 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (March 22). Raw material market rebounded, DOP market stabilized.

Isooctanol tends to stabilize

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the downstream industry chain is rising due to the rise of crude oil price. This week, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, the downward pressure of DOP weakened, and the upward momentum increased. DOP market has a certain rise support.

Phthalic anhydride tends to be stable

From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride remained stable after the sharp fall this week, the market of phthalic anhydride stabilized, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP slowed down, the cost of DOP stabilized, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened in the future.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that the price of raw materials stopped falling and rebounded last week, the cost of DOP rose slightly, and the DOP market recovered briefly. With the reopening of Suez Canal, the crude oil price lost its support, and the downstream industry chain market fell. Affected by the epidemic situation in Europe and India, the risk of crude oil price falling in the future increased, the product price of downstream industry chain lost its support, the price of phthalic anhydride and isooctanol was expected to drop, the cost of DOP fell, the stability of DOP was difficult to maintain, and the downward pressure of DOP in the future was greater.

According to the price monitoring of business association, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China continued to rise steadily in March 2021. As of March 26, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton, up 11.6% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 77600 yuan / ton on March 1). On March 26, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90200 yuan / ton, up 8.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of March (the average price of carbon in East China was 82800 yuan / ton). Until the 26th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was between 82000-89000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was between 86000-92000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, since the beginning of March, the resumption of production and work in various industries has begun to improve, and the production of the industry has also been on the right track. Therefore, from this month, the procurement of raw materials by downstream enterprises has gradually increased and concentrated. However, due to the insufficient operating rate in Jiangxi and the price increase in Qinghai, the price of lithium carbonate has increased. Then, in mid March, the rising trend of lithium carbonate price gradually slowed down, the rising range decreased, the trading volume of lithium carbonate in the market gradually decreased, and the downstream supply of raw materials has been basically completed. Therefore, the market wait-and-see sentiment is obvious, coupled with mica and Salt Lake production began to pick up, the price trend began to stabilize.

In late March, the price of lithium carbonate still rose slightly. Some downstream enterprises replenished a small amount of lithium carbonate. At present, the inventory of lithium carbonate production enterprises is relatively low. In addition to the strong willingness of suppliers to support the price, the price is still rising. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic lithium carbonate has been soaring since November 2020. So far, the price of industrial lithium carbonate has increased by more than 119.24%, and that of battery lithium carbonate has increased by more than 104.07%.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide rose again in March. Due to the tight spot market, the downstream enterprises actively inquired and the low price shipping intention of the enterprises was not strong, so the price center of gravity moved up, and the price game of manufacturers has heated up recently. In terms of lithium iron phosphate power market, the price continues to rise, the short-term supply situation continues, and the industry capacity shortage situation is expected to remain, and there is still room for upward growth in the future.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, the market demand has gradually stabilized in the near future, and the driving force of price rise is insufficient. In addition, lithium carbonate will continue to increase, and the situation of short supply and demand will be significantly improved. The price of lithium carbonate is still expected to be strong in the short term.

1. Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas was 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and the quotation was temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On March 22, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1850 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Anhui Aodeli quoted 1800 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 960 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, which was the same as last week; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was the same as last time. The nitric acid market is fair, individual manufacturers have no inventory pressure; affected by the rise of raw materials, the price of nitric acid tends to rise.

Upstream liquid ammonia, this week (3.22-25) according to the monitoring of the business community, liquid ammonia continued the rising trend of last week, the average producer price in Shandong area at the beginning of the week was 3583 yuan / ton, the average weekend price was 3660 yuan / ton, up 2.14%; downstream aniline, the quotation of aniline this week was temporarily stable, the average domestic market price was 14000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the raw material liquid ammonia, nitric acid analysts of business news agency expect that the price of nitric acid may rise.

Looking back on the 23rd futures market, the oil sector was full of red, palm oil, soybean oil and vegetable oil rose sharply at the opening of the day, leading the top four futures list. Of course, the better varieties that rose on the 23rd were liquefied gas; besides apple, which had been falling continuously in the near future, the weak varieties on the 23rd plunged after 10 o’clock, once touched the limit, and then with the bottom buying funds Intervention, rapid recovery, day-to-day settlement price 17160, close to the three major spot market quotations. In addition, PP / PVC in the plastic sector fell ahead, occupying the top four of the decline board.

Oil floating red high strength

First of all, let’s take a look at the oil sector. Palm oil and soybean oil, which had a higher increase, had a spot price of 8500 yuan / ton on March 23, and the spot price of soybean oil was 9966 yuan / ton. On the 23rd, soybean oil rose 1.53% and palm oil rose 3.58%. Palm oil was stronger.

Two factors led to the rise of spot price of oil plate on the same day. The first factor was the positive external news, which led to the sharp rise of US soybean oil: US soybean oil was supported by us green energy policy, and the main contract of US soybean oil rose by the limit overnight. The second factor is that Malaysia’s palm oil export data is strong, and Malaysia’s palm oil export data has improved significantly in the first 20 days, boosting the market, according to the data of shipping survey agency. From March 1 to 20, Malaysia’s palm oil export volume increased by 5% – 7% month on month.

Analysts from business news agency believe that domestic soybean oil and palm oil storage is currently at a low level, and global oil demand is improving, which will be supported by favorable conditions. Soybean oil and palm oil will still run at a high level in the short term.

Palm oil is relatively strong in 2021. It is confirmed from the historical annual comparison chart of the current spot price that the current palm oil price is at a high level in the same period, only slightly higher than the current price in the same period of 2012, and lower than the current price from 2013 to 2020.

According to the futures support tool of business association, as of March 22, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of palm oil is 5.88%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 6.63%; from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the maximum basis rate of palm oil is 670.00, the minimum basis rate is 326.00, the average basis rate is 507.54, and the 23 day main basis rate is 454.

According to the annual comparison chart of soybean oil price, the current soybean oil price, like palm oil, is at a high level in the same period, which tends to be flat in the same period of 2012, slightly lower than that in the same period of 2011, and lower than the current price from 2013 to 2020. It can be seen that the oil sector has indeed entered the historical high price range.

As of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of soybean oil was 7.75%, and the 90 day average basis rate was 9.29%. From December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the main basis of soybean oil is 1022.67, 696.67, 845.51 on average, and 758 on the 23rd.

Liquified gas strives for gas

The product that rose well on the 23rd: liquefied gas; the average price of liquefied gas market on the 23rd was 3850.00 yuan / ton, while the civil market of liquefied gas rose mainly on the 23rd, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton in Shandong Province, and the current market transaction price is about 3750-3850 yuan / ton. In the morning, the rise of international crude oil has brought some benefits to the market mentality. The inventory of manufacturers is generally free from pressure, the mentality is relatively strong, and the price is pushing up. The price is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

According to the annual price comparison chart of LPG, the annual price trend is divided into two waves: in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the price is relatively high in the same period; after the price plunge at the end of 2014, LPG has been operating below 5000 for a long time, and the current price is mainly in the middle of the second echelon in the same period, slightly lower than that in 2015 and 2019.

As of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of LPG is – 8.43%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 0.05%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the main basis of LPG is 574.00, the minimum is -460.33, the average is 8.71, and the main basis of 23 days is – 50.00

The most beautiful aluminum ingot on the 23rd

Shanghai aluminum futures market yesterday is a dark horse, Shanghai aluminum main contract once limit. Many people are asking about the reasons. From the news, it is mainly due to the rumor that the aluminum ingots of the State Reserve were sold in the market yesterday, which caused the spread of market panic and led to the stampede of funds in the futures market. It is said that the amount of aluminum ingots thrown and stored by the State Reserve is about 500000 tons, but whether the rumor is true or not is unknown. After all, no official documents have been found to confirm it so far. As for whether it will be confirmed later, or it’s just news hype, we have to continue to pay attention. However, it can be reflected that the current aluminum price is high.

According to the annual comparison chart of aluminum price, the current aluminum price is at a high level in recent 10 years.

At present, the important support for high aluminum prices and high profits of aluminum plants is the current low social inventory.

The logic line is that in 2021, the cumulative stock of Spring Festival will decrease year on year, because this year’s situation is relatively special, there are more cases of non homecoming, the downstream operating rate is significantly higher than in the past, and the speed of returning to work after the festival is faster than in previous years. Of course, this also buried a hidden danger, which may overdraw the recovery of downstream operating rate in the peak season of April to May. Of course, we should also see the good side, that is, the problem of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia can restrain the supply side to a certain extent.

As of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of aluminum is 1.28%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 0.64%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the maximum base difference of aluminum is 530.00, the minimum is – 155.00, the average is 101.75, and the main base difference on the 23rd is 40.00

How deep will the plastic plate be

PP and PVC in the plastic sector also fell significantly on March 23; on March 23, the latest price of PP (wire drawing) was 9166.67 yuan / ton, at the low point in March. The recent slight correction is mainly based on three factors: first, the price of propylene at the raw material end is down, and the support of PP cost is weakened; second, the maintenance of domestic devices is reduced this week, and the supply side is relatively abundant; third, after the high shock, the traders are cautious in receiving goods, and the wait-and-see mentality at the downstream purchasing end is increased, resulting in weak trading.

PP spot market is expected to still have a narrow decline.

From the annual price comparison chart of PP, compared with the same period, it is in the middle of the two bands, lower than 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014; higher than 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2020, slightly higher than 2018 and 2019.

According to the futures support tool of business society, as of March 22, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of polypropylene is 2.54%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 1.89%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the main basis difference of polypropylene is 453.00, the minimum is -67.00, the average is 160.82, and the main basis difference on the 23rd is 231.00

On March 23, the latest spot price of PVC was 8950 yuan / ton; the price of PVC was reduced mainly due to two factors: first, the price of raw materials was loose and the cost support was weakened. The price of calcium carbide is loose in the near future, and the efficiency of water rising ship should be weakened; second, the price increase in the early stage is relatively large, and the downstream pressure is relatively large, so the market is still digesting the early stage increase. The atmosphere of high price transaction is general, and the terminal receiving capacity still needs time to repair.

In the long run, the current PVC supply and demand fundamentals change little, PVC market is not easy to fall. PVC is expected to fluctuate high in the short term, waiting for demand follow-up.

From the annual comparison chart of PVC prices, the wave of PVC prices rose rapidly in February. The current price is much higher than that of the same period in other 10 years, and the second highest price appeared in 2011.

According to the futures support tool of business society, as of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of PVC is 2.28%, and the 90 day average basis rate is – 0.05%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the maximum value of main basis of PVC is 942.50, the minimum value is -555.00, the average value is 5.66, and the main basis of 23 days is 195

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the price of sulfur in East China was stable this week. The average price of sulfur production at the weekend was 1490.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 8.50% compared with that at the beginning of the month of 1373.33 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic sulfur market is mainly on the wait-and-see basis. The inventory of domestic refineries in various regions remains low, the market sulfur price is high and firm, the downstream plants are less enthusiastic in purchasing, the quotation of domestic refineries is basically stable, and the shipment is acceptable. During the week, refineries in various regions of China made big steady and small moves, with the exception of Sinopec’s solid sulfur price increase of 20 yuan / ton in East China, the overall market quotation was stable. As of the 21st, the regional price of sulfur in China is as follows:

21 March 2005

Sulfur (particle) 1430-1490 yuan / ton in East China

Sulfur (particle) 1380-1470 yuan / ton in North China

Sulfur (particle) 1500-1530 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

In the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate have been running smoothly, and the export has continued to improve with high prices. In addition, the market demand is optimistic with good support due to the approaching of spring ploughing fertilizer, and the future market has risen slightly. In terms of sulfuric acid, the market went up during the week, the export of sulfuric acid was good, the domestic supply was tight, and the upstream and downstream market was favorable. With the promotion of various factors, the price of sulfuric acid was increased, and the later sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.

Sulfur analysts of business news agency believe that at present, domestic refinery inventory remains low and market price is firm and stable, but downstream demand is weak, trading is weak, and most of them purchase on demand. Moreover, this week’s market price is multi-dimensional and stable, with little upward momentum. In the short term, sulfur market will wait and see to sort out and pay attention to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 2070.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2116.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.25%, 18.25% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 98.45 on March 19.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2120 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2130 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side: most of the agricultural demand is used as soon as it is purchased, the willingness of terminal purchasing is general, and the agricultural purchasing in mainstream areas is cautious; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants rises slightly, and the small orders follow up, and most of them follow the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. Based on the rising demand of many local industries, the positive impact of Indian bidding, the improvement of domestic market mentality, and the willingness of some manufacturers to support prices.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, from 3350.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3643.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 8.76%, 14.21% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3410.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.59% , up 9.18% from the same period last year. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea decreased slightly, from 8100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8033.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a sharp increase of 0.82%, up 47.85% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, urea cost support is good and demand is good this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand procurement is cautious, the industrial demand is used as soon as it is purchased, and the urea supply is acceptable. However, the bidding in India will start soon. It is expected that the domestic urea market will fluctuate slightly in the short term, and more attention will be paid to the bidding in India in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market continued to decline recently. As of the 19th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6525 yuan / ton, 17.67% lower than the price of 7925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 26.70% higher than the same period last year. The price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to fall in the near future, the spot supply was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride continued to fall.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. The market price of phthalic anhydride was in general condition. The downstream demand was reduced in the near future. The price trend of o-benzene was down. The plasticizer market was down. The market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline due to the combination of bad factors. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was sufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride on the site was lower. The downstream plasticizer industry market declined, and the actual transaction situation was general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is declining, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 6300-6500 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the downstream procurement is poor. The recent downward trend of downstream DOP market is affected by this Prices continued to fall.

Since March, the price trend of domestic o-benzene has dropped sharply, and the market price has dropped to 6200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.62%. The decline of domestic o-benzene price is a big bad news for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the market of imported o-benzene in port area has declined, the external quotation of o-benzene has fluctuated, and the import of o-benzene in port area has increased. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in port has increased, and the external quotation of o-benzene has fluctuated and adjusted The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The price trend of o-benzene is declining. The price of raw material o-benzene is lower, which is bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride has dropped sharply.

The market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride declined slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 12250 yuan / ton as of the 19th, with a price drop of 11.23% in March. The low starting point of the equipment of DOP enterprises in the yard was temporarily stable. With the sharp drop of the price of isooctanol, the cost of DOP decreased, the gap of DOP decline increased, and the DOP price plummeted. With the increase of the operating rate of DOP enterprises, the pressure of supply and demand is alleviated, the demand support is weakened, the rising power of DOP in the future is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. In the future, the cost of DOP decreased, the operating rate of enterprises increased, the support of DOP rise weakened, and the high price caused the cost pressure of downstream products. The downstream customers were more resistant to high price DOP. The overall DOP price was about 12000-12600 yuan / ton, the domestic demand for phthalic anhydride did not improve, and the market price of phthalic anhydride dropped significantly.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price has declined. In addition, the downward pressure of downstream plasticizer industry market has increased, the DOP price has been declining, and the price of o-benzene has a downward trend. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to decline slightly in the future.

This week, the market price fell and the overall atmosphere weakened. The procurement of chemical fiber downstream of cyclohexanone is slowing down, the confidence of solvent market is weakening, and the procurement atmosphere is also flat. It is expected that the market price of cyclohexanone will weaken in the future. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of March 16, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 100033 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 42.56% and a year-on-year increase of 41.31%.

Region, price

East China: 10200-10400 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China: 10200-10400 yuan / ton, cash delivery

Shandong area: 10200-10300 yuan / ton, cash delivery

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic pure benzene dropped and rose again after the recent rise. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was increased by 300 yuan / ton with the implementation of 6750 yuan / ton, which was implemented by all its refineries. The price is effective from February 26. Sinopec’s quotation for high-end caprolactam this week was lowered by 200 yuan to 14500 yuan / ton (liquid premium products will be accepted and picked up in June).

During the week, caprolactam factory’s new order purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the price psychology was obvious, and the price of cyclohexanone was weakening. The trading atmosphere of solvent market continued to be weak. In addition, the crude oil, pure benzene and commodity markets had more callbacks this week. The market was pessimistic. The trading activity declined, and the prices of traders followed the decline. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the market of cyclohexanone will be depressed in the short term.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (March 15): 4716.67 yuan / ton

On March 15, the factory offer of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose, up 383.34 yuan / ton, or 8.85% compared with that of March 12. The raw material, orchid carbon, is well supported by the high price consolidation of calcium carbide. Downstream PVC market recently slightly increased, year-on-year price is higher, downstream customers to calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm is better, market supply is short of demand. The main reason for the increase of calcium carbide is the dual control and power limit furnace shutdown in Inner Mongolia.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the price quoted by the manufacturer is about 4900 yuan / ton.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 21.85%. On March 12, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started their plants normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the yard was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the delivery situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers maintained a high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price trend of some manufacturers is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was temporarily stable, with the weekend price of 1983.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 1983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2050 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton. The price of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1950 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic overhaul units have been running normally, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the goods on site are in general, the price trend of nitric acid on site remains stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 3396.67 yuan / ton, 0.49% higher than the price of 3380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard is normal, the spot supply in the yard is normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong generally remains high. Due to the low inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remains at a reasonable level, and there is a certain price difference with other regions in China, especially the northeast region, which also undertakes some external orders, the price remains high. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. From the perspective of the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is slightly insufficient in the off-season. The price of the upstream rose slightly this week, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the price trend of raw material market has dropped slightly. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is general, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain volatile in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business news agency, the trichloromethane market in Shandong has risen sharply since February. As of March 10, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 3646.67 yuan / ton, up 51.94% from 2400 yuan / ton in early February.

First of all, affected by the enterprise burden reduction and low inventory, the spot supply of chloroform in Shandong is tight. On the one hand, in February, some enterprises and other devices were overhauled, resulting in a decrease in the overall output of chloroform, smooth delivery and no inventory pressure; on the other hand, in the later period, some enterprises had maintenance plans in March. According to the business news agency, Jinling planned to stop for maintenance for about 20 days on March 12. It is expected that the supply will continue to be tight in the later period and the market will be bullish. After the Spring Festival, the ex factory price of chloroform increased frequently. On March 10, the ex factory price of chloroform increased by 200-300 yuan / ton within a day. The mainstream ex factory price of chloroform including tax was about 3730-3800 yuan / ton. The market offer has risen further, with individual traders offering about 4500 yuan / ton with package and tax.

Secondly, the price of raw materials is high and the cost is relatively strong. Since the end of February, the price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong has increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton, with strong cost support. According to the business community, as of March 8, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has reached 1800 yuan / ton; the price of raw material methanol is high and in the rising channel, and the price has continued to rise since February. According to the business community’s monitoring, as of March 10, the price of methanol was 2462 yuan / ton, compared with 2290 yuan / ton at the beginning of February Yuan / ton rose by 7.51%.

Finally, the peak season of downstream refrigerants is gradually coming, the orders of refrigerants are increasing, even some models are full, the operating rate is increasing, and the demand side support is strengthened, which promotes the price of chloroform to rise.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province have little inventory pressure, coupled with the soaring raw material prices, cost pull, demand side and downstream peak season, it is expected that the price of trichloromethane will still have upward space in the later period.

Recently, the price of international crude oil market and domestic oil products have been soaring, and the price center of domestic MTBE market has moved up. The price of MTBE was 5466 yuan / ton on March 8, up 4.39% on March 3, according to the business news agency.

The results of the OPEC + meeting finally came to fruition, and the organization agreed to extend the oil production reduction to April; oil and military facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked. The international crude oil market was stimulated by double positive factors, and the international oil price soared. In the past three days, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil soared by more than 10%. In terms of gasoline demand, the market demand returned to the level before the festival, and the “eight consecutive rises” of refined oil price adjustment were implemented. The market was bullish, and the demand for terminal replenishment and hoarding increased.

As the international oil price rises, the purchasing enthusiasm of middlemen in MTBE market increases, and the domestic gasoline demand is relatively stable, the demand for MTBE and other intermediates is supported. It is also reported that there is still a maintenance plan for the MTBE plant, and the market supply tends to be tight. At present, the price of domestic MTBE market is mainly rising.

The MTBE product analyst of business society energy branch thinks: the possibility that the price of refined oil will follow the correction of crude oil price in the near future, the price of MTBE market will rise to a high level, and it is expected that there will be a correction in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene stopped rising and turned to falling this week. On February 28, the price of pure benzene was 6500-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6690 yuan / ton); on Sunday (March 7), the price of pure benzene was 6400-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6670 yuan / ton), the average price was 20 yuan / ton lower than last week, a decrease of 0.3%; it was 29.51% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly due to the positive external news. However, the price of pure benzene rose too fast in the early stage, and the resistance of the downstream to high price pure benzene was strong. In the early stage of this week, crude oil fell, the external market softened sharply, the downstream styrene fell in shock, the good news was released, the market took profits, and the price fell. However, the willingness of the industry to lower out is low, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price of 6750 yuan / ton is stable, and the market decline is limited.

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. With the recovery of styrene plants in Europe and the United States, the capital of styrene industry was withdrawn, and the external market of styrene declined, which led to the external market of pure benzene falling. On Friday (March 5), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 862.33 US dollars / ton, down 35.34 US dollars / ton, down 3.94% compared with February 26, and the reference price of import in East China was 887 US dollars / ton, down 28 US dollars / ton, down 3.06% compared with February 26.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene fluctuated and fell. On March 5, the price of sample enterprises was 9366.67 yuan / ton, down 316.66 yuan / ton or 3.27% from last week, and up 41.56% from the same period last year. The price of crude oil went up; the supply of ethylene weakened and the price rose; pure benzene was mainly weak and styrene cost side support was acceptable.

Aniline: the aniline plant of Jiangsu Fuqiang was overhauled within a week, and some units in Jinling were put into operation at reduced load. Aniline enterprise inventory low, price rise. The main aniline plants in Shandong are expected to be overhauled and the supply is expected to decrease; the demand for downstream polymerization MDI and rubber additives is strong, the price is high, the profit margin is good, and the demand for aniline is good. The market is bullish on the short-term aniline Market. On March 5, the price of aniline was 11200-11500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11400-11500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 5.88% from last week and 68.47% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + continues to extend the production reduction period, and the oil price is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Downstream: the profit margin of downstream products is large, and most of the inventory is low, the spot buying is more active, and the demand for pure benzene is better supported. Styrene: the operating rate of downstream EPS is increased, and the demand for styrene is strong. In addition, I heard that the export volume of styrene is expected to reach 70000 tons in March. With the coming of “gold, silver and silver”, the speed of port delivery will be accelerated. In the case of low import volume, the port inventory is expected to drop to less than 100000 tons in the month. It is expected that styrene will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Internationally, with the recovery of styrene plants in Europe and the United States, the shortage of styrene supply eased, and the price of pure benzene in Europe and the United States fell back. In China, the replenishment of pure benzene at the main port from March to April is limited, and the downstream profit level of pure benzene is high, and the demand for pure benzene is good. It is expected that the speed of going to the warehouse will be improved. At present, the pure benzene market is greatly affected by styrene and crude oil, and it is expected that it will still fluctuate in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2766.67 yuan / ton, 0.20% higher than 2761.11 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.01% lower than the same period last year.

The price of fluorite rose slightly this week. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the orders of fluorite were general, the shipping situation of the merchants on the floor was normal, the supply of fluorite on the floor was slightly tight, and the price on the floor rose. The domestic fluorite manufacturers are running stably, the start-up of mines and flotation units in the fluorite yard remains at a low level, the delivery of fluorite in the fluorite yard is general, and the fluorite market price rises slightly. As of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite price rose slightly .

The price trend of fluorite downstream hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10611.11 yuan / ton. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable, which has a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite rises slightly. The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is slightly higher, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery of goods is not smooth, the actual transaction focus is slightly increased, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 14500-16500 yuan / ton. Low load operation of domestic R134a manufacturers, favorable support, R134a price trend temporarily stable. However, the current demand is not good, the downstream enterprises do not start high, and the traders have a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, and the price is high, but the transaction atmosphere is general. The downstream refrigerant market has improved, and the price trend of fluorite has risen slightly.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has slightly improved. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has remained high recently, and the supply of fluorite in the market is slightly tight. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of fluorite may rise slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency: since February, the price of hydrogen peroxide has entered the downward channel, and the price has been falling continuously. After the Spring Festival, the market is still weak, mainly down. As of March 4, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide had dropped to 942 yuan / ton, 24.9% lower than that in early February.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2020 to February 2021, it can be seen that hydrogen peroxide did not perform well in the first quarter of 2020, and began to decline for four consecutive months in February, mainly due to the limitation of hydrogen peroxide export orders and the delay of terminal paper and printing manufacturers. In 2021, hydrogen peroxide has dropped for two consecutive months, and the decline is still more than 30%. In early March, hydrogen peroxide still showed no signs of improvement and continued to decline. As of March 4, the price of hydrogen peroxide was 24.9% lower than that in early February.

Terminal demand is poor, hydrogen peroxide drops to the bottom

Since February, the traditional off-season of hydrogen peroxide consumption has come. The terminal printing industry, paper industry, caprolactam and other manufacturers have stopped for maintenance. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined. Coupled with the increase of logistics costs and limited transportation, the hydrogen peroxide market has entered the downward channel. During the Spring Festival, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers started up normally, supply increased and inventory rebounded. After the Spring Festival, the terminal papermaking and printing industries have not yet fully resumed operation, and the terminal demand is still poor. The hydrogen peroxide manufacturers continue to reduce the ex factory price, and the price continues to fall, with a drop of as much as 21%.

In the first week of March, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued the weak market in February, because the terminal paper and caprolactam market rose sharply, the decline of hydrogen peroxide slowed down and continued to stabilize. The quotation of mainstream areas is in the first line of 900 yuan / ton.

End caprolactam papermaking industry recovers, hydrogen peroxide rise in March is expected

After the Spring Festival, although the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to decline, but the terminal paper, caprolactam market rebound, hydrogen peroxide market decline slowed down.

Paper: because nine dragon many bases before the festival issued after the Spring Festival price rise notice, after the festival paper mills have followed the price rise. However, due to the impact of public health events, the northern region stopped production ahead of time before the festival. With the stability of the post Festival health events, the downstream paper mills started to work actively. Therefore, the demand for raw paper began to increase. With the rising prices of raw materials and strong demand, the price of corrugated paper increased significantly. As of March 4, the price of corrugated paper increased by more than 9% compared with the beginning of February.

Caprolactam: after the Spring Festival, the external market, the United States extremely cold weather, crude oil, chemical refineries shut down, resulting in a sharp rise in pure benzene. Caprolactam was supported by the sharp rise of raw material pure benzene, and its operating rate was general. The terminal PA6 chip manufacturers started one after another, the demand increased, the market ushered in a rising channel, and the price continued to rise. As of March 4, caprolactam prices were up 31% from the beginning of February.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, said: since mid March, the hydrogen peroxide Market is expected to usher in an inflection point and stop rising due to the warming of paper industry, rising paper market and high caprolactam price.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 3, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 43000.00 yuan / ton. 2021 is a year that lithium iron phosphate is expected to counter attack. Just entering January, the average market price of lithium iron phosphate was 37000 yuan / ton. In February, the average market price rose to 41000 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period in January, the price rose by 10.81%. Entering March, the price rise momentum is still not strong The price soared to 43000 yuan / ton, up 16.22% to 6000 yuan / ton compared with the same period in January. With its safety and low-cost characteristics, lithium iron phosphate is becoming more competitive in the market. Lithium iron phosphate battery will rise, and the industry pattern is changing.

LiFePO4 battery is on fire

With the continuous high heat of new energy vehicles, LiFePO4 battery has been popular from home to abroad and is favored by more and more automobile manufacturers. The cost of LiFePO4 is about 0.08 yuan / wh, which can save 0.15 yuan / wh compared with ternary cathode materials, According to statistics, the shipment volume of LiFePO4 cathode materials in China will be 124000 tons in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 41%. The increase of energy storage market exceeds the expectation. After years of development, LiFePO4 has been lukewarm and the overall market capacity is oversupplied. Until 2020, the power battery ranking will change dramatically, and LiFePO4 will successfully counter attack Elon Musk said that out of concern about the long-term availability of nickel supply, the company will consider supporting lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in more electric vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, nickel prices have shown an upward trend. At present, the demand for power vehicle batteries is increasing, which has a certain role in pushing up the nickel price. Tesla (Shanghai) factory standard model 3 has all been switched to lithium iron phosphate batteries. Musk’s statement this time will also make great significance for the promotion and application of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the global market. Industry insiders infer that lithium iron phosphate batteries may become the main substitute of nickel cadmium batteries in the next five years, and will become a strong competitor of lead-acid batteries in the next 10 years In the next 20 years, it may replace the lead-acid battery as the main starting power supply, UPS power supply and backup power supply, and become the leader of the secondary battery. The cost of LiFePO4 is relatively low. LiFePO4 can be made from waste acid, ferrous sulfate and titanium dioxide after further processing. It has stable structure, long cycle life of charge and discharge, prominent safety advantages and relative competitive advantages in terms of comprehensive indicators.

Product specifications and quotation (ten thousand yuan / ton) date

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ power ﹣ 4.3-4.6 ﹣ March 3

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ energy storage ﹣ 3.8-4.1 ﹣ March 3

Lithium carbonate industrial grade 7.8-8.1 March 3

Lithium carbonate battery grade 8.1-8.4 March 3

LiMn2O4 ﹣ power ﹣ 3.85-4.1 ﹣ March 3

Lithium manganate ﹣ capacity type ﹣ 2.8-3.4 ﹣ March 3

Licoo3 ﹣ 33.3-35.6 ﹣ March 3

Titanium dioxide enterprises switch to new energy for a share

Lithium iron phosphate “fire”, and more titanium dioxide leading enterprises cross-border entry, construction of lithium iron phosphate production line, switch to new energy, want to share, lithium iron phosphate production technology threshold is not high, the most important thing is to control the cost, the production of lithium iron phosphate the biggest cost is lithium products, lithium products need to be purchased, the price is uncertain according to market changes, and iron phosphate production needs to be improved The required iron element can be directly obtained from ferrous sulfate produced from titanium dioxide, and it does not need to be purchased again, which saves part of the cost. CNNC titanium white said that lithium iron phosphate, as one of the cathode materials, has comparative advantages over ternary materials in terms of safety, cycle life, production cost and other comprehensive indicators. Since its commercialization, it has been applied to automobile, ship and energy storage industry It has become the most potential cathode material at present. The person in charge of anada said that although the production path is not exactly the same as that of CNNC titanium dioxide and other peer enterprises, the company also uses part of the waste in the manufacturing process of iron phosphate, which can realize “turning waste into treasure”, which is the main reason why titanium dioxide manufacturers concentrate on entering the lithium iron phosphate Market. At present, the market demand for lithium iron phosphate has increased significantly, and the lithium iron phosphate manufacturers also continue to add investment To expand production capacity, the market share of new energy industry is increasing, and the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is also increasing, which is expected to drive the development of China’s lithium iron phosphate Market to the global market. In the short term, the supply of lithium iron phosphate is still in short supply, orders are saturated, and the market is too hot. As a result, some lithium iron phosphate enterprises have to stop taking orders to alleviate the shortage of production capacity, 2021 According to the statistics, the output of LiFePO4 reached 20630 tons in January, compared with 4660 tons in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year growth of 342.7%. Compared with ternary battery, LiFePO4 has the advantages of higher security and lower cost. Enterprises have increased LiFePO4 and become the mainstream product in the new era. In March, the supply of LiFePO4 is in short supply, and the relationship between supply and demand is further tense.

Market share of LiFePO4 is expected to further increase

Compared with ternary battery, LiFePO4 battery has the advantages of higher safety and lower cost, which is favored by more automobile manufacturers. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in January has been increasing continuously, ranking the first for seven consecutive months. The sales volume of pure electric vehicles is the fastest, with a year-on-year growth rate of 415.5% and 319.8%, reaching 158000 and 143000 respectively Tesla Model 3, BYD Han, and Wuling Hongguang Mini EV all use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In October 2020, Tesla will replace lithium iron phosphate batteries, reducing the starting price of model 3 standard life upgrade from 271000 yuan to 249000 yuan. According to the data of China Railway Passenger Association, in November 2020, Tesla Model 3 will be sold at a price of 1 In March, the sales volume reached 21600 vehicles, with a month on month increase of nearly 10000 vehicles. The overall sales volume increased significantly, and the production and sales continued to be vigorous. With the continuous maturity of R & D technology of power battery enterprises, the promotion and application of CTP technology of Ningde times and blade battery technology of BYD can reduce the cost and improve the energy density of battery system, so that lithium iron phosphate battery has both high safety and low cost The market competitiveness of the company has been enhanced. At the same time, the domestic new energy vehicle market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, LiFePO4 has a price advantage compared with ternary materials, prompting car manufacturers to use more LiFePO4 batteries to reduce production costs and seize market share. With the intensified competition in the industry and the accelerated expansion of leading enterprises, the market share of LiFePO4 battery is expected to increase again.

The output of LiFePO4 reached a new high and still could not meet the downstream demand

In February, the leading enterprises of lithium iron phosphate expanded their production on a large scale, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate increased greatly. The inventory was in a hurry, which could not be made up by inventory. More and more chemical enterprises entered the market of lithium iron phosphate, which proved the certainty of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) in the next few years. In recent months, the capacity of LFP has been low, the supply exceeds the demand, and the shipment volume is greater than the production Quantity, leading enterprises, berterry, German side and Wanrun all have the phenomenon of inventory reduction. The monthly demand of Ningde times and BYD exceeds 40000 tons, which directly affects the continuous shortage of lithium iron phosphate. From the aspect of plant expansion of lithium iron phosphate enterprises, the fastest time is to wait until the second quarter, and large-scale production may be in the end of the year or early next year, with no shortage in the short term The relative shortage of LiFePO4 can be alleviated by this method.

China’s lithium industry chain layout in Europe has become an inevitable trend. The demand for LiFePO4 batteries and upstream materials has increased. As the main raw material for LiFePO4 production, lithium carbonate has shown a broad rising trend in recent months, soaring all the way. At present, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 78000-85000 yuan / ton, and the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 85000-80000 yuan / ton. On March 2, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 205.35, up 7.64 points from yesterday, down 49.31% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 108.39% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to LiFePO4 analysts of business news agency, due to the tight supply and demand of LiFePO4 in February, strong downstream demand and urgent production capacity of manufacturers, some leading enterprises have stopped taking orders. It is expected that the overall trend of LiFePO4 will rise in March, and the supply of LiFePO4 will not meet the demand. The new production capacity of large-scale model may be put into operation until the end of this year or the beginning of next year, which will lead to the decline of LiFePO4 throughout the year In the field of energy storage batteries, the state is paying more and more attention to environmental protection, and the pressure of environmental protection is becoming increasingly severe. It is the general trend that relatively environmentally friendly lithium-ion batteries are widely used. 2021 will usher in a year when the demand for lithium iron phosphate rises sharply, which has broad market prospects. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).