According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market showed an M-shaped trend in July 2024, with an average price of 19435 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 19445 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.05%.

On July 28th, the lead commodity index was 118.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.48% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) during the cycle, and up 58.94% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

On July 28th, the basic metal index was 1273 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 98.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. In 2024, the prices of lead ingots mostly rose, with a decrease of 1.77% in February and an increase of over 2.8% in all other months. Looking at the weekly K-bar chart, the market has seen more gains and less losses recently.

Macroscopically, the People’s Bank of China conducted its second MLF operation this month, cutting interest rates by 20 basis points beyond expectations. Analysis suggests that the increase in MLF operations this time has released a signal of easing, meeting the medium and long-term funding needs of financial institutions. The US GDP in the second quarter exceeded expectations, with a month on month growth of 2.8%. The core PCE price index fell to 2.9% month on month, still higher than expected. The implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations in August is expected to result in an increase in tax costs.

According to customs data, the import volume of refined lead (unprocessed refined lead) in China in June 2024 was 524.961 tons, an increase of 235.65% month on month and 199.77% year-on-year. In June 2024, the import volume of lead ingots in China was 7200.12 tons, a decrease of 1.73% compared to the previous month and an increase of 23.44% year-on-year.

The overall lead ingot market in July showed an M-shaped pattern, with a bearish atmosphere in the non-ferrous sector and other bulk commodities. Some original lead delivery brand enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and some enterprises have already pre sold most of their production in August, resulting in low sellable inventory. Refining lead enterprises in Anhui and other regions are gradually resuming production, and with the arrival of imported lead for replenishment, the degree of subsidy for recycled lead has expanded. Since the opening of the import window, the actual import arrivals have been limited, and the channel for converting imported goods into delivery products has not yet been opened in large quantities. The short-term shortage reality and the expectation of surplus in the hospital month. It is expected that the lead ingot market will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in June 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.507 million and 2.554 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% and 2.7%, respectively. From January to June 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 1.389 million and 14.047 million respectively, an increase of 4.9% and 6.1% year-on-year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in June 2024 was 639000 tons, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year. From January to June 2024, China’s lead production was 3.889 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%

International Lead Zinc Research Group ILZSG News: In April 2024, the global lead market experienced a supply shortage of 22600 tons, followed by a shortage of 3400 tons in March. From January to April 2024, there was an oversupply of 7000 tons in the global lead market, compared to a shortage of 7800 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global lead ore production was 365100 tons in May 2024. From January to May 2024, the global lead ore production was 1.8111 million tons. In May 2024, the global refined lead production was 1.1079 million tons, with a consumption of 1.0939 million tons and an oversupply of 14000 tons. From January to May 2024, the global refined lead production was 5.5297 million tons, with a consumption of 5.4181 million tons and a surplus supply of 111600 tons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9521.67 yuan/ton on July 12th and 9475.00 yuan/ton on July 19th, an increase of 0.49%. The current price has increased by 19.81% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has slightly decreased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, and the recent market trend has slightly declined. International oil prices have fluctuated, with a significant decline in the pure benzene market and poor cost support, while the styrene market has risen to a relatively high level. Spot demand is mainly driven by rigid demand, and downstream resistance to high price levels is slightly evident, resulting in a slight decline in the styrene market. At present, the transaction price of styrene in Jiangsu region is 9510-9550 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect

Recently, the overall trend of pure benzene has continued to decline. At present, the inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu Province continues to rise, with a total inventory of 44000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons or 46.67% compared to the previous period’s inventory of 30000 tons. The downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene has increased, and it is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. As of July 19th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is 8500 yuan/ton. At present, the downward trend of pure benzene market has slightly stopped, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will mainly decline slightly in late July.

Supply side

In July, there were many inspections of the styrene plant, and the overall production of styrene plants in China was 297000 tons, an increase of 2600 tons from the previous period’s 294400 tons. Styrene inventory has slightly increased, with limited negative impact.

Demand side

Recently, the three major downstream producers of styrene have experienced mixed fluctuations. Among them, the EPS market is stable, with large fluctuations in manufacturer quotes and poor downstream demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and transactions are average. In early July, domestic ABS prices showed a narrow upward trend. The main terminal demand for ABS is weak. Some home appliance manufacturers are on vacation and have stopped work, resulting in lower overall load levels for downstream factories and weak stocking operations that prioritize basic needs. Last week, traders were forced to sell at high prices under the cover of producers. Currently, the market momentum has returned to calm, and the speed of supply flow has decreased. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market. The PS market fluctuated and fell. Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 reported 10400 yuan/ton, PH88 reported 10700 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P reported 9750 yuan/ton, 622P reported 10550 yuan/ton

The styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current pure benzene market continues to decline, with weak cost support and weak spot demand for styrene, resulting in poor market transactions. Shengyi Society analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly experience a slight decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade increased in early July, with an average price of 7230 yuan/ton as of July 12th.

Raw material market: On July 11th, there was no significant bullish or bearish driving force for cost and self supply and demand, and PTA spot prices tended to fluctuate. On the afternoon of July 11th, MEG futures fluctuated, with a basis difference of 35-40 compared to the 09 contract. This week’s trading was close to 4810 and the delivery was around 4805.

The recent decline in international oil prices has dragged down the prices of polyester dual raw materials. Due to insufficient cost support and low industry processing fees, major polyester bottle chip manufacturers have started to raise prices and reduce production to ensure processing fees. As a result, market prices have risen and processing fees have relatively recovered.

The current factory price for PET water bottle grade is hovering between 7250 yuan and 7450 yuan. For the goods to be delivered from July to August, the ex factory price negotiated by the buyer and seller ranges from 7100 yuan to 7200 yuan. The export quotation for polyester bottle flakes is also stable, with an initial quotation of $920 to $940 per ton FOB China main port for goods shipped from July to August. However, in actual negotiations, the price has fallen back to the range of $910 to $930 per ton FOB China main port.

Business Society PET analyst believes that the PET market is expected to maintain its current trend in the short term.

monitoring data from Business Society, the market offer on June 21st was 8320 yuan/ton, and on June 27th it was 8270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%.

The price of phenol in East China of Sinopec is 8350 yuan/ton, while the price of phenol in North China of Sinopec is 8300-8350 yuan/ton. The factory prices are firm, and the operating rate of the phenol ketone unit has not fluctuated much, maintaining around 70%.

In terms of supply, the total quantity of phenol arriving at the port in East China is 42000 tons. Please pay attention to the subsequent shipment situation.

Downstream bisphenol A is operating steadily, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China ranging from 9850 to 10000 yuan/ton. Overall, market trading is limited. The cost side pure benzene market is operating steadily, with a reference price of 9367 yuan/ton. Some companies in Shandong Refining adhere to the price, and the transaction situation is not volatile.

From the perspective of the Business Society, the parking and maintenance plans for Qingdao Bay and Shanghai Xisa Storage need to be monitored, and after the phenol export is released at the end of the month, the import volume needs to be supplemented. There is not much pressure on the market supply side, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping in early July is not high. From the terminal perspective, there is still strong demand, and there is not much change in demand. It is expected that the market range will adjust and operate next week.