According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased recently (3.18-3.27). On March 27th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% from 7430 yuan/ton on March 18th.

The high volatility of international crude oil prices provides some support for the cost of mixing xylene

Recently (3.18-3.27), under the resonance of multiple factors, the international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 26th, WTI05 contract settlement is $81.62 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $85.63 per barrel. The high volatility of Asian mixed xylene prices provides support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $952 to $953 per ton as of March 26th.

Mixed xylene port inventory slightly decreases, supply pressure slightly alleviates

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has slightly decreased, but the supply pressure remains at a high level. It is understood that as of March 22, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 96500 tons, which continued to decline slightly from 101000 tons on March 15.

High demand for xylene production supports mixed xylene production

There is sufficient domestic spot supply of xylene, and international crude oil prices rose and then fell within the week. PX external prices also rose and fell, with an overall downward trend. As of the 22nd, the closing prices in the Asian region were 998-1000 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1023-1025 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. However, the recent maintenance of naphthalene phthalic anhydride plants has not been as expected, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is mainly stable. As a result, the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of mid March, the operating rate of refineries nationwide is around 7.3.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the weak trend of polyaluminum chloride market this week is mainly consolidation. The solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China was mainly reported at around 1815 yuan/ton on the 18th, and around 1806.25 yuan/ton on the 25th, with a price drop of 0.48%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has basically returned to normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid remains stable. The market for polyaluminum chloride has also stabilized.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating normally and limited inventory. The average market price is 92.5 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with upward expectations and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has fallen this week. This week, domestic temperatures have rebounded, the heating season is coming to an end, market demand is weakening, and bearish sentiment on the market has increased. At present, there is still support on the cost side, but due to the sustained weakness in terminal demand and high market supply, the situation of oversupply is difficult to improve in the short term. The liquid factory is under pressure to ship, resulting in a concentrated decrease in liquid prices.

Market forecast: In the near future, raw material prices will remain stable, fuel liquefied natural gas prices will decline, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will decline. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers have basically resumed normal production; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the period from March 15 to March 22, 2024, with a price increase of 7038.75 yuan/ton last week and 7258.75 yuan/ton this week, up 3.13%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures fell on March 21st. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.07 per barrel, a decrease of $0.20 or 0.3%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.24 per barrel, a decrease of $0.14 or 0.2%.

On March 15, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8700 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton..

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On March 18th, the price of pure benzene was 8508 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 8542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from last week and an increase of 18.22% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, downstream demand has performed well this week, and the expected improvement in demand for raw material pure benzene due to the restart of styrene plants has driven the pure benzene market in East China to heat up. However, in the middle of the week, the styrene market fell, dragging down the mentality of the industrial chain, and the pure benzene market followed a pullback. Over the weekend, there were reports of device maintenance in the downstream, which once again dragged down market sentiment. However, due to the tight supply of crude benzene, auction prices continued to rise this week. As a result, the ex factory prices in the main production areas of the hydrogenated benzene market only slightly decreased this week, with the current mainstream price ranging from 8300 to 8550 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the sixth round of reduction in the coke market has quickly landed, with a cumulative decrease of 600-660 yuan/ton. At present, coke enterprises are generally losing money, and actively limiting production continues to increase. The operating rate has dropped to around 65%, and crude benzene production has significantly declined. The overall supply is tight, and affected by the weak trend of the coal coke steel industry chain, the operating rate of coke enterprises is likely to remain low in the near future, and the supply of crude benzene will still be tight in the future. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been operating at a relatively stable rate recently, maintaining on-demand replenishment of crude benzene. However, the pure benzene industry chain has been weak this week, dragging down market sentiment. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has been lowered by 150 yuan/ton within the week, resulting in high raw material prices and weak downstream demand. The hydrogenated benzene industry has a strong mentality of price pressure. In the absence of a significant favorable environment for supply and demand in the future, it is expected that there will still be a slight decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11666 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have weak quotations, and market transactions are mainly based on orders. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12000 yuan/ton. Industry insiders hold a wait-and-see attitude and focus on post holiday market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The quotes from activated carbon manufacturers are weak, and the market lacks positive support. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market was operating weakly this week (March 11th to March 18th), with prices in the East China region dropping by 1.08% to 13700 yuan/ton on March 18th.

In terms of manganese ore, the overall performance of manganese ore this week was weak, with prices showing a downward trend. Downstream purchasing willingness was average, but prices remained low, resulting in inconsistent performance at the port. This week, it was mainly affected by downstream production cuts, spot and market prices, with different types of ore experiencing a decline of 0.2-0.3 yuan/ton. Port profiteers still have a high willingness to ship. As of March 15th, Tianjin Port’s semi carbonated carbon is priced between 33.5-34 yuan/ton, Gabon’s is priced between 35-35.5 yuan/ton, and Australia’s block is priced below 36 yuan/ton. Although there is a strong willingness to ship, the overall transaction volume is relatively low. The mainstream price of southern manganese ore remains stable, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. Semi carbonated carbon is priced between 33.5-34 yuan/ton, Australia’s block is priced between 36-36.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon’s block is priced between 35-35.5 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively weak.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued its previous trend and continued to operate weakly. The mainstream market prices this week were concentrated at 12100-12200 yuan/ton, a further decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. After the holiday, the demand for electrolytic manganese in the market has been weak, and the spot market has maintained a weak operating trend. After January, with the resumption of work by enterprises, the operating rate has basically returned to pre holiday levels, and market supply has recovered. In terms of demand, several rounds of auctions conducted within the month have shown overall weak performance, which has also dragged down the mentality of the spot market. The overall downward pressure on prices remains strong. Under the mentality of supply-demand competition, it is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will remain weak in the short term due to the lack of demand support, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel recruitment guidance.

Related data:

This week, the silicon manganese market has been operating weakly, and the sentiment of rising prices for manganese ore on the cost side has weakened. Recently, spot retail trading has been poor, and some manufacturers have successively delivered orders to steel mills. However, due to steel mills reducing production, spot demand is average, and most manufacturers have silicon manganese inventory. Some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, the main production area, have relatively serious inventory accumulation compared to the previous period, resulting in a low price shipping sentiment. Some manufacturers in Ningxia continue to reduce and stop production, and the total production is relatively low. In the southern region, due to high costs, the expectation of manufacturers resuming production is poor. On the steel plant side, alloy procurement has been carried out one after another, and steel bidding prices have decreased month on month. Additionally, due to steel plant maintenance, silicon and manganese production has decreased month on month. On the futures side, the main manganese silicon contract this week was driven by black sentiment, and the price continued to decline. The market pattern remained unchanged, and the market broke new lows this week, reaching a low of 6116. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 5800-5950 yuan/ton on March 15th.

Steel recruitment situation:

Pohang, South Korea, is bidding for electrolytic manganese from March to April 2024. The quantity is currently unknown, and the deadline for quotation is March 12, 2024. The delivery date is March 31, 2024, and April 26, 2024.

The bidding price for metal manganese ingots at Panzhihua West Steel in March April 2024 is 12265 yuan/ton (excluding tax acceptance pricing), a decrease of 258 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 600 tons and a delivery date before April 30, 2024.

Industry data:

On March 17th, the base metal index was 1203 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.56% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1119 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.24% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 84.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 11th week of 2024 (3.11-3.15), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were copper (3.86%), nickel (2.47%), and cobalt (2.25%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-2.03%), neodymium oxide (-1.42%), and metal silicon (-1.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.2%.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPP market price continued to slowly decline this week. As of March 18th, domestic producers and traders μ The mainstream quoted price of BOPP film for m is around 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.3% from last week’s average price and about 0.6% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) is around 7720 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.1% compared to last week. The cost support of raw material PP for BOPP prices is slightly stronger, but there are more bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are still some undelivered orders, with abundant inventory, increased operating rates of film companies, and sufficient supply on the supply side

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises have insufficient demand, resulting in reduced order volume and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that BOPP prices will slowly decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7587.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 7587.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a year-on-year decrease of 12.91%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. However, the recent increase in maintenance of naphthalene phthalic anhydride plants has led to an increase in the price trend of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has temporarily stabilized the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Stable price of ortho benzene with acceptable cost support

Recently, the price trend of ortho benzene in China has remained stable. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site facilities is stable. In the short term, the trend of crude oil prices has declined, and the price of mixed xylene has remained stable. The temporary stability of ortho benzene prices provides certain cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable.

Demand side: DOP market’s on-demand procurement market is declining

The price trend of downstream DOP market has declined this week, with a price of 10910 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.72% from the price of 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises are generally operating, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average. The mainstream price of DOP is 11600-11700 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend has declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is not good. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride is strong.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has increased, while the price of ortho xylene has remained stable. The downstream DOP market has declined, but the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has decreased recently, which has a certain supporting effect on ortho phthalic anhydride. It is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has shifted downward this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Thursday was 23793.33 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 22760 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 4.34%.

2、 Market analysis

The focus of the yellow phosphorus market continued to decline this week. The trading situation of yellow phosphorus on the market is average. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, but the transaction situation of new orders is average. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, demand is average, and there are many cases of underpricing procurement. It is mainly wait-and-see, and the procurement is very cautious. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is relatively light. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the phosphate ore market has temporarily stabilized and consolidated this week. As of March 14, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1062 yuan/ton, which is the same as March 7. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that the overall domestic phosphorus ore market is stable and running smoothly, with a mild trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field. Currently, the downstream market demand for phosphate ore is slowly recovering.

In terms of coke, according to the analysis of the commodity market by Business Society, as of now, the coke market in Shandong ports is operating weakly, with a quasi first level outbound price of around 2030-2080 yuan/ton and a first level outbound price of 2130-2180 yuan/ton. The spot market in ports is operating weakly, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The intention of traders to gather at the port is low, and the inventory of the two ports has slightly decreased. On March 14th, Xiaoyi arrived at Rizhao Port at 170 yuan/ton, while Jiexiu arrived at Rizhao Port at 165 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has declined. The average price of domestic hot process phosphoric acid market was 6650 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 6600 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a price drop of 0.75%. The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the demand in the thermal phosphoric acid market is average this week, with poor raw material yellow phosphorus market and insufficient cost support. The industry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the upstream phosphate ore market is currently stable and consolidating, and the coke market is operating weakly, with average cost support. The downstream phosphoric acid market prices have fallen. Overall, the trading volume in the yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and downstream markets are mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will experience weak consolidation and operation in the short term, and actual transactions will be discussed on a single basis.

Recently, the market for butyl acrylate has continued to show a slight downward trend. The demand growth was less than expected. Due to the continued downturn in the terminal real estate market, the downstream coating of butyl acrylate was weak, and the consumption of acrylic lotion could not be said to be considerable. As of March 11, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in the business community was 9490.00 yuan/ton, down -0.42% compared with last Monday (9530.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost

In terms of propylene, there was a slight increase in the Shandong market, with mainstream transactions at 7054 yuan/ton as of March 11th. With the rise in propylene prices, downstream product profits are weak, and the market trading atmosphere is slightly flat. Low end offers and shipments are smooth.

In terms of n-butanol, there is a lack of strong positive expectations in the Shandong market, resulting in a inertia decline in market prices and a small supply gap that is not enough to create bullish expectations in the market; On the other hand, although butanol has good profits, downstream product profits are weak. As of March 10th, the mainstream market transaction was at 7933 yuan/ton.

The prices of raw materials fluctuate, and a comprehensive comparison of cost calculations shows that the production enterprises of butyl acrylate are under significant pressure in terms of cost.

In terms of supply and demand

The operating level of domestic butyl acrylate units remains at 60%, and the overall spot supply inventory of production enterprises is gradually increasing. Among them, the total production capacity of satellite chemical acrylic acid and butyl acrylate reaches 840000 tons/year and 780000 tons/year, respectively. The downstream adhesive and tape master roll industries of butyl acrylate are maintaining a strong demand for replenishment, and in the short term, the trend of raw material prices is mainly based on market trends. Most production enterprises of acrylic acid lotion have started construction as planned, and the construction on site is around 40%. The downstream enterprises are slow to resume construction, resulting in a general atmosphere on the site. Due to the lack of significant downstream demand for butyl acrylate, the demand side has a slow driving speed towards the consumption of butyl acrylate supply.

Overall

With the stabilization of raw material propylene prices and the rebound of n-butanol, the downward trend of butyl acrylate prices has slowed down under short-term support from the raw material side. The integration of the butyl acrylate industry has become the main development trend, and non integrated butyl acrylate production enterprises are under significant purchasing pressure in the short term. According to the data analyst from Business Society, the demand for downstream markets in the butyl acrylate market still needs to be monitored this week. However, the overall situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, and it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to operate weakly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic tetrachloroethylene market saw a strong rise this week (3.4-3.8). The average market price at the beginning of the week is 4800 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price is 5012 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.43%.

2、 Analysis and Review

On Thursday of this week, the market for vinyl chloride showed a significant increase, with tight supply. After the holiday, the shipment of refrigerants in the market rebounded significantly, and the price of refrigerant R125 increased. The market supply was tight, and there was strong support for demand in the face of tetrachloroethylene.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that the demand for tetrachloroethylene will continue to support in the short term, and it is expected that the tetrachloroethylene market will continue to maintain a high and strong trend in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On March 4th, the price of pure benzene was 8275 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 8th), the price of pure benzene was 8261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from last week and an increase of 13.67% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8350 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have dropped by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Overnight crude oil and styrene prices have risen, and sellers are optimistic about the future market. The willingness to ship has decreased, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate and rise today.

Crude oil: The market is weighing the impact of the Middle East situation and demand prospects, and the bearish game continues, with narrow fluctuations in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract 78.93 fell 0.20 US dollars per barrel, or 0.25%; The ICE oil futures 05 contract remained unchanged at $82.96 per barrel. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2404, rose 5.4 to 614.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 613.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in the East China market was discussed and the transaction was positive. However, the industry is concerned about the subsequent downstream maintenance situation, and the space for price increase is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of butyl rubber 1751 was 17675 yuan/ton on February 28th. This month, the price curve of butyl rubber remained stable, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton from January, or 0.57%.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Due to the increase in domestic MTBE prices in February, but the lack of downstream procurement enthusiasm after the upward push, the market situation slightly rebounded, resulting in slight fluctuations in isobutene prices in February. The price of isobutene fell by 100 yuan/ton this month. In terms of equipment, the 45000 ton unit of Yanshan Petrochemical has been shut down, while other units are operating normally. Overall, the cost is relatively weak in terms of spot support.

Demand side: At the beginning of the Chinese New Year, the overseas tire market is gradually entering a good situation, with a continuous flow of overseas orders from steel tire enterprises. The industry prosperity is accelerating the resumption rate of the steel tire industry. As of today, the load rate of the entire steel tire industry has increased by about 2 layers, and the load rate of the semi steel industry has increased by about 1.4 layers.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the supply side of butyl rubber is expected to increase slightly in the later stage, with weak support from the cost side and expected support from the demand side. It is expected that the recent butyl rubber market will be strong and consolidation will be the main trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of light rare earths in February declined. On February 28th, the rare earth index was 375 points, a decrease of 23 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 62.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 38.38% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 362500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 10.49% in February; The price of neodymium metal was 475000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 8.21% in February; The price of praseodymium oxide was 375000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7.98% in February; The price of praseodymium metal was 510000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 7.27% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 452500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 9.50% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 365000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 8.75%.

In February, the rare earth market prices fell, with limited transactions in the domestic rare earth market, very few new orders, low purchasing willingness of enterprises, and very few downstream inquiries. The rare earth raw material market continued to operate under pressure, with only a small number of price pressing inquiries. The supply-demand contradiction was sharp, and the overall market transactions were sluggish. There are many downstream holiday companies around the Spring Festival, and coupled with the holiday period for waste recycling, the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the rare earth market trend continues to decline.

According to statistics, in January 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 787000 and 729000 respectively, a decrease of 32.9% and 38.8% month on month, and an increase of 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in production and sales of new energy vehicles in January has had a certain negative impact on the rare earth market, and the domestic rare earth market has slightly declined.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments have released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, and the growth rate of the indicators has slowed down, which has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have had poor purchasing and ordering sentiment, and some companies have not yet resumed work and production. The situation regarding new orders is unclear, and it is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose in February. On February 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6880 yuan/ton, and on February 29th, the benchmark price was 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.80%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; However, the continued increase in port inventories has brought resistance to the upward trend of toluene.

The rise in international crude oil and external market prices provides support for toluene

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices rose during and after the holiday in February, leading to stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of February 28th, the settlement of WTI04 contract is 78.54 yuan/barrel; The settlement price of Brent 05 contract is $82.15 per barrel. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in February. As of February 28, March, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 902-904 US dollars/ton.

Relative high-level toluene demand support for xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate remains at 8.4%. The external price of PX has slightly increased, and as of the 28th, the closing price in the Asian region is 1013-1015 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1038-1040 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Domestic mixed blending demand is weak in supporting toluene

During the off-season of the domestic mixed blending market before and after the Spring Festival, downstream inquiries were light, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. In the later stage, with the increase in local refining operations, the demand for oil blending in the market is expected to recover. As of February 22, the nationwide refinery operation fluctuated narrowly around 7.1 to 7.3.

After the holiday, TDI has basically increased its support for toluene demand

After the holiday, downstream factories have resumed work one after another, and the replenishment sentiment has increased. In addition, the TDI market has a low supply of goods, and suppliers have a clear intention to increase prices. Shanghai’s large factories have raised prices, and holders have raised their offers. However, downstream demand is limited, and TDI may not have enough support for stable operation in the later stage of the rise.

The increase in supply has suppressed the upward trend of Jia Ben

Domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of February 22, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; As of February 23, the inventory of toluene in East China was 104000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 18000 tons, a significant increase from the end of January.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Downstream industries such as PX and TDI have some support for toluene, but toluene inventories continued to increase in February, and supply pressure remains; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a volatile consolidation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable this week. The main market price for solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China was around 1808.75 yuan/ton on the 29th. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has gradually returned to normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid remains stable. The market for polyaluminum chloride has also stabilized.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, and as of February 29th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was 85 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has fluctuated and fallen, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has risen this week. As market demand gradually recovers at the end of the month, liquid prices have started to rise, and low prices have begun to rise. The bidding price for raw gas has increased, leading to increased cost support.

Market forecast: In the near future, raw material prices will remain stable, fuel liquefied natural gas prices will rise, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will rise. On the supply side, production of polyaluminum chloride by Chinese manufacturers has gradually resumed normal operations; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

February coincides with the Spring Festival, but the market for viscose short fibers is relatively warm, with prices rising. Before the year, manufacturers had no pressure on inventory, downstream demand was insufficient, and adhesive short fibers remained stable in operation. After the new year, the inventory of factories is not high, and the maintenance of equipment in factories in Shandong continues, resulting in a decrease in supply. The trend of raw materials is strong, and cost support is still acceptable. The opening of adhesive short fibers is good, and most adhesive short fiber factories have raised their prices to a certain extent. Moreover, the production of yarn and terminals has gradually increased, and there may be an increase in demand. However, the overall investment atmosphere has not significantly improved, and manufacturers mainly focus on executing orders. The overall stability of downstream human cotton yarn is relatively strong, with a slight increase in quotes from human cotton yarn factories and a slight reduction in discounts, while inventory is basically maintained.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in February 2024, the overall price of adhesive short fibers remained stable and increased. As of February 29th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13560 yuan/ton, an increase of 380 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.88%.

In terms of cost: In February, the trend of raw material dissolution slurry was relatively strong, and cost support remained strong. The price of imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp is around 880 US dollars per ton, and the price of coniferous dissolved pulp is around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7600 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in price. Actual orders are negotiated.

Supply and demand: In February, the inventory of adhesive short fibers was limited. After the holiday, manufacturers continued to maintain their equipment, resulting in a decrease in supply and reluctance to sell. Downstream human cotton yarn factories have started construction one after another, replenishing goods as needed. Human cotton yarn is stable and relatively strong, and the market’s low-priced supply has slightly decreased.

In February, the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable and slightly strong, with prices following the slight increase in raw material viscose short fibers. Some yarn factories slightly increased their quotations and reduced their discounts. Overall shipments were average, and inventory was basically maintained. As of February 29th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first grade) was 17550 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton or 1.30% compared to the beginning of February.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the price center of raw material dissolution pulp has been strong, with strong cost support and tight inventory of adhesive short fibers. At the end of February, some adhesive short fiber equipment maintenance in Shandong region is approaching its end, and the supply of adhesive short fibers may increase, and the inventory situation may improve. The production of yarn and terminals is gradually increasing, and there may be an increase in demand. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, the trend of adhesive short fibers may be mainly stable, medium to strong; The market situation of human cotton yarn will be mainly stabilized and operated steadily.