In April, the butadiene rubber market rebounded slightly from a low point. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of butadiene rubber was 11380 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% from 11220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strengthened; In April, downstream tire factories started operating with a slight fluctuation, and support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was just needed but weak; In late April, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased slightly by 100 yuan/ton, and the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly.

Supply side: In April, multiple enterprises of polybutadiene rubber stopped for maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side of polybutadiene rubber was relieved.

Cost side: In April, the price of butadiene slightly increased, while the cost side of butadiene rubber significantly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of butadiene was 8851 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% from the 8551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the natural rubber market fell first and then rose, but remained at a low level, with a relatively negative impact on butadiene rubber. As of April 27th, the price was at 11530 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from 11526 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point during the cycle was at 11210 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Downstream tire production in April slightly increased compared to March, with a strong demand for rubber support but no significant increase. It is understood that as of mid April 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the raw material price has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber has risen. In addition, many enterprises have significantly alleviated the pressure on production and supply, and the small fluctuations in downstream construction have a strong demand for support for butadiene rubber. In the short term, there is support for the butadiene rubber market, but there is still a lack of significant improvement in downstream construction. In addition, the production of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s butadiene rubber plant has also increased supply pressure to a certain extent, It is expected that there will be a significant upward trend in the later stage of polybutadiene rubber.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 10733 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11066 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.11%.

The factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in China ranges from 9600 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer’s quotation has partially increased. The equipment of domestic coal based activated carbon production enterprises is operating normally, and the spot supply is relatively high compared to the annual average level. Market inquiries have increased, and transactions are improving.

The cost support for the upstream main raw materials of activated carbon, such as coconut shell, fruit shell, and charcoal, is stable. Downstream industries such as power and medicine are increasing in procurement, and demand is improving. The procurement for drinking water, water purification, and food industries is increasing, and the market atmosphere is good.

Prediction: Currently, the overall activated carbon market has sufficient supply and active procurement. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 21, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4700 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.08%. Compared to April 1, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate at 4800 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.17-4.21), the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a trend of first decline and then weak stabilization and consolidation. In mid to early April, domestic dimethyl carbonate on-site supply was tight, supported by tight spot supply, and the dimethyl carbonate market was operating in a narrow upward trend. However, due to the poor performance of downstream demand, some domestic dimethyl carbonate factories lowered the price of dimethyl carbonate by around 200-300 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. Subsequently, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate was weak, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The new orders were generally traded. As of April 21, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 4600-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is average, and the support provided to dimethyl carbonate is limited. Some factories have resumed operations before the holiday, and the supply side support on site is relatively loose. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, the downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate will increase, and it remains to be seen whether the transmission between supply and demand can be smooth. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at Business Society predicts that in the short term, The domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly subject to narrow range adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell, and the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall. On April 23, the rare earth index was 460 points, down 54.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and up 69.74% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have declined. As of the 24th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 570000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.56%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 470000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 1.57%; The price of neodymium oxide is 480000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.03%; The price of neodymium metal was 620000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 6.06%; The price of metal praseodymium was 645000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.44%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 475000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 2.06%.

Recently, the light rare earth market has continued to decline, and the buyer’s wait-and-see sentiment has intensified. Downstream demand has not yet recovered, and market information is still weak. The light rare earth market is constantly declining. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, and due to the drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, the purchasing party has a serious resistance mentality. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be short of the short-term price of rare earth. Affected by multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to decline.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is still acceptable. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 674000 and 653000 units in March, with a month on month increase of 22% and 24.4%, and a year-on-year increase of 44.8% and 34.8%, respectively. The market share reached 26.6%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased, the purchase of downstream permanent magnets is very rare, and the price of light rare earth is not optimistic.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing weakly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, upstream supply is sufficient, the supply-demand contradiction is sharp, and the transaction situation is poor. In addition, the second quarter is gradually entering the off-season of the rare earth industry, and the decline in the light rare earth market is difficult to change in the short term.

This week (April 17-23, 2023), cost stability was maintained and nylon filament prices were firm. The supply of nylon manufacturers is sufficient, and the downstream weaving industry is operating steadily. In some regions, some specifications are selling well, but the overall market is still in a state of oversupply. The actual transaction is discussed in detail according to the order.

Market price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of nylon filament was strong this week (April 17-23). As of April 23, 2023, the quotation for DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region was 18520 yuan/ton; The quotation for nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is 16250 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 19200 yuan/ton, which is consistent with last week’s price.

Upstream raw material market

This week (April 17-23, 2023), there is no significant change in the cost side. On April 21, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.78% in the price of caprolactam. There are changes in on-site devices, the supply expectation is tight, supporting the firm offer of manufacturers, the downstream polymerization plants are on the sidelines, the actual purchase is cautious, bargain hunting or small order follow up, and it is expected that in the short term, the market price of caprolactam, the raw material, will be dominated by narrow consolidation and operation.

Future prospects

At present, the price of nylon market is stable, the upstream raw material market is stabilized, and the cost support function is temporarily maintained. Nylon manufacturers have stable starting and production capacity. The production and sales of downstream and terminal markets have improved, but it is still unclear, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Business Society analysts expect the nylon filament market to operate steadily in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 198.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices have decreased by 36.13% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, but downstream procurement is weakened

From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The price of downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 1835.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1828.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.34%. On weekends, prices have decreased by 22.14% compared to the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1080.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1030.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 4.63%. Overall, upstream support is good, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future Market Forecast

In late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. However, the downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to be weak. From April 7 to 14, the price of the domestic aggregate MDI market fell from 15280 yuan/ton to 15080 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 1.31%, 10.34% month on month and 18.49% year-on-year. Downstream demand side follow-up is weak, overall market confidence is insufficient, and the supply of goods is relatively abundant, with limited support for the market. The aggregated MDI market continues to be weak.

On the supply side, Shanghai Huntsman’s aggregated MDI price in April 2023 was 20000 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged month on month. The MDI distribution channel of Wanhua Chemical Polymerization had a one-time price of 18000 yuan/ton in early April, which remained unchanged. The listing price of Aggregated MDI in April 2023 was 19800 yuan/ton, which remained stable month on month.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: the price of domestic pure benzene market rose significantly, and the spot transaction was 7410-7500 yuan/ton; Shandong market price was 7200-7350 yuan/ton. The overall demand for pure benzene in the downstream has increased, and the short-term domestic pure benzene market is at a high level. Raw material aniline: expected domestic aniline to rebound slightly. The inventory of aniline is slow and the price has slightly increased. The cost side of aggregated MDI is relatively favorable.

On the demand side, the overall follow-up ability of the demand side is average, while downstream purchasing power is weak, and the overall downstream consumption capacity is still relatively limited. Short term aggregate MDI demand side support is insufficient.

In the future market forecast, the overall follow-up ability of the downstream industry is limited, and the short-term market lacks positive support. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic MDI market will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in March. The market price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 7500.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 7100.00 yuan/ton on March 8, a decrease of 5.33%; Later, it rose to 7633.33 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 7.51%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 50.96% compared to the same period last year. On March 30th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 38.75, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 28.65% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell first and then increased in March, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in March. The price of propylene dropped from 7522.60 yuan/ton on March 1 to 6948.60 yuan/ton on March 27, a decrease of 7.63%; Later, it rose to 7138.60 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 2.73%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 14.77% compared to the same period last year. Upstream cost support is average, with a slight increase in prices at the end of the month, which has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol first fell and then rose in March. The market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 11200.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 10600.00 yuan/ton on March 15, a decrease of 5.36%; Later, it rose to 10666.67 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 0.63%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 39.85% compared to the same period last year. The downstream market has slightly declined, but prices have increased at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early April, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Upstream propylene prices slightly increased at the end of the month, with good cost support. At the end of the month, there is an upward trend in the downstream market for new pentanediol, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market in March increased slightly. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was 0.92% higher than the price of 4340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the year-on-year price was flat.

In March, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, and the situation of goods on the site was moderate. The manufacturer’s inventory was low. The terminal upstream coal price trend was stable, while the nitric acid price trend was rising, while the liquid ammonia price fell, and the downstream demand was moderate. The ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and downstream procurement is on demand. Recently, downstream procurement of nitro compound fertilizer has increased, while domestic procurement in the downstream civil explosive industry has decreased. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5200-5300 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4200-4300 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

In March, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased, with the average domestic nitric acid price at the end of the month being 2533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% compared to the price of 2483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China quote 2700-2800 yuan/ton, while northern and central China quote 2400-2650 yuan/ton. The market has ample supply of goods, high price trading is under pressure, and high-end prices are often sold at reduced prices. However, downstream demand is relatively stable, supporting the supply and circulation of goods. The trend of rising prices in low price regions is still evident. The rising price of raw material nitric acid has formed a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly.

In March, the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market declined, with the price of liquid ammonia reaching 4000 yuan/ton by the end of the month, down 8.88% from the price of 4390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In March, prices in main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Lianghu all fell, mainly due to an increase in supply, and the restart of some overhauled devices. The sentiment of rising supply affected manufacturers to lower prices. Moreover, there is little change in the downstream field of liquid ammonia, with general agricultural demand and just a need for stable industrial demand. The decline in upstream liquid ammonia prices has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase of ammonium nitrate is limited.

Recently, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, coupled with the low market price of raw material liquid ammonia, but the price trend of nitric acid is relatively strong in the later period. The ammonium nitrate analyst from the business agency believes that the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable in the later period.