According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 6th to 9th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2428 yuan/ton to 2402 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.08% during the period, a month on month drop of 2.73%, and a year-on-year drop of 10.02%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. The domestic methanol production and supply are at a high level, and there is an expected increase in import supply. The lack of market confidence has suppressed the market, leading to a decline in the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on May 8th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2216 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2247 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2211 yuan/ton. It closed at 2227 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 7 yuan or 0.32% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 532893 lots, the position is 767836 lots, and the daily increase is -3589 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most of the coal mines in the main production area maintained normal production and sales, and the coal mines that completed the task of shutdown and maintenance at the end of the month also basically resumed normal production. The overall coal supply level is relatively sufficient. During the May Day holiday, the coal prices in the main production areas continued to be weak, and most coal mines had average transportation conditions. The pithead lowered the coal prices according to their own sales situation, with a range of 5-10 yuan/ton. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chloride: chloride increases demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no shutdown plan for the unit, and the demand for dimethyl ether is limited; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side, some equipment maintenance; Some other devices have been restored. The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of May 8th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 86.00-87.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 230.50-231.50 euros/ton, down 9 euros/ton.
Future forecast: Traditional downstream demand is relatively weak, and the demand side will continue to suppress price trends. At the same time, under the macro influence, there is a lack of positive factors in the market. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is mainly weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. From April 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2580 yuan/ton to 2440 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.43% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 7.36%, and a year-on-year price drop of 7.98%.

In the first half of the month, under the influence of crude oil and policies, the domestic methanol market fell sharply. After falling to a low level, many downstream and trading companies restocked at the low price. In addition, some major production areas experienced equipment failures and reduced production, supporting the low rebound of the domestic methanol market. The methanol market is fluctuating and running.
In mid month, the supply of methanol in the coastal market increased, but market confidence was insufficient, and the overall port market remained weak. Due to the shutdown of some facilities and tight supply in some regions of the mainland methanol market, coupled with low inventory levels of enterprises, traders have a positive attitude towards purchasing goods. Production enterprises have raised prices and shipped goods, resulting in an overall strong operation of the mainland methanol market.
At the end of the month, there was a recent demand for pre holiday stocking of methanol downstream in mainland China, which provided some support for the market atmosphere. Enterprises shipped smoothly, but they still had a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and market price changes were limited.
As of the close on April 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2279 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2283 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2250 yuan/ton. It closed at 2251 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 35 yuan, 0.09 yuan, or 1.53% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 494490 lots, the position is 635491 lots, and the daily increase is -19453 lots.
On the cost side, although the supply from production areas has slightly tightened at the end of the month, traditional coal consumption is in the off-season, and there is insufficient demand for civilian electricity. Power plant units have entered the maintenance season, and the output of clean energy such as hydropower has squeezed out the share of thermal power. Downstream demand for coal has significantly decreased, and market coal trading activity has significantly declined. The supply and demand of thermal coal market are still relatively loose, and the overall price of coal is weakly stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chlorides: The restart of the early load reduction device for chlorides has increased the demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; There is currently no maintenance or restart device for formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on April 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 87.00-88.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 264.50-265.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
Market forecast: As the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a partial release of replenishment demand for traditional downstream demand, and the planned maintenance of MTO facilities in North China will lead to a decline in industry consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market is consolidating at a low level. From April 1st to 30th, BDO prices fell from 7958 yuan/ton to 7950 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.11% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 31.88%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic BDO market saw a weak consolidation. The restart and maintenance of the equipment are still ongoing, but the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and the supplier’s market stability mentality continues. The overall downstream production has increased, but under cost pressure, it has entered the market for bargaining. The supply-demand game continues.
In mid month, the domestic BDO market experienced a weak downturn. Recently, the load on the equipment has not been high, and there is support from the supply side. The supplier’s intention to maintain price stability continues. But as new production capacity emerges, downstream bearish sentiment increases. Some of the manufacturers holding the goods lack confidence in their offers, and negotiations for narrow discounts on actual orders have led to a downward shift in the focus of the domestic BDO market.
At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market weakened narrowly. The industry’s capacity utilization rate continues to decline, with supply side support and supply side contraction. Downstream maintenance requires immediate follow-up, but resistance to high prices still exists. The supply-demand game continues, and the market is operating in a stalemate.
Supply side: Some devices are still under maintenance, temporary parking, and defect elimination, and the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has dropped to around 4.4%. The market supply continues to decrease, and there is some positive support from the supply side. At the same time, some devices have released May maintenance news, and the industry is under long-term loss pressure. The suppliers have a strong positive attitude towards supporting the market, which limits the market’s further downward exploration space. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market remains stable and watchful. Due to power maintenance and cost pressures, the supply in Shaanxi and Wumeng regions has significantly decreased. At the same time, there have been irregular power restrictions in Inner Mongolia, which have increased supply instability and accelerated the consumption of market inventory. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 3:00 pm on April 25th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2430 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are running weakly, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, due to the average performance of terminal demand, the overall downstream production has slightly declined, and the cost of the industrial chain is under pressure, resulting in weak ability to accept high prices. This has led to inconsistent implementation of new cycle contract policies and sporadic small orders for spot goods. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: The supply-demand game will continue, and market fluctuations may be limited. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly in April, with prices hitting bottom and rebounding at the end of the month. Due to the significant decline in the previous period, prices fluctuated and fell overall, with a drop of over 4%. On April 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7766 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.51% in price.

Negative led to weak rebound of adipic acid market in April
In the first half of the month, the price of adipic acid raw material pure benzene fluctuated upwards, while the market for cyclohexanone raw material fell weakly. The demand in the terminal industry was sluggish, and the operating rate of adipic acid market manufacturers was high. The supply pressure continued, and the shipment price fell weakly. The market transactions were average, and the sales were flat. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7300-7400 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of about 200-300 yuan/ton.
After mid month, the pure benzene raw material for adipic acid fluctuated weakly, the cyclohexanone raw material market declined, and the demand in the terminal industry was poor. The supply of adipic acid market manufacturers was loose, and the shipping prices continued to fall. The market transactions declined, and the sales were average. As of April 23rd, the average market price of adipic acid has fallen to 7100-7300 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of about 200-300 yuan/ton.
At the end of the month, the market for adipic acid continued to decline, and negative factors were exhausted. The adipic acid market rebounded, with prices rising by about 300 yuan/ton, an overall increase of about 3%.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after the May Day holiday, there will be an improvement in terminal demand, a boost in raw material prices, and a continued upward trend in the domestic adipic acid market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in April 2025, with an overall downward trend. From April 1st to 27th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 6120 yuan/ton to 5490 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.29% during the period.

In the first ten days of the month, the toluene market saw a slight increase due to pre holiday restocking. During the period, the pre holiday purchasing intentions of the disproportionation and oil blending industries in Shandong were relatively strong, and the sales situation in the region was good. The overall inventory of refineries was low, and their quotations were relatively firm. Overall, the toluene market saw a slight increase due to the impact of pre holiday purchasing intentions.
Mid month: Mid month: Crude oil prices fell sharply, sales in Shandong were good, and factory inventories were generally low, so the downward adjustment this week was relatively small. Due to the drag of crude oil, prices in the East China region have fallen sharply, and the market sentiment is weak. Overall, due to the overall decline in crude oil and aromatic hydrocarbon markets, the toluene market has generally declined.
Late month: Weak demand and downward trend in the toluene market. Refinery quotations in Shandong region have been continuously lowered this week, and downstream purchases have been made on dips. The supply in the East China market is slightly loose, the overall performance of the aromatic hydrocarbon market is weak, the toluene market is dragged down by weak prices, the price reduction of Sinopec in the South China region is dragging down the mentality of the spot market, and the market is slightly under pressure due to high port inventory.
Cost wise: The international crude oil market experienced a broad decline in the first half of April, with fluctuations in the mid to late period. At the beginning of April, the international oil price market experienced a significant decline. On the one hand, the US tariff trade war and tariff trade barriers had a huge impact on the global economy, increasing uncertainty in the future. The market believes that the risk of the United States falling into an economic recession has increased, and this will have a huge negative impact on global economic growth. On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced future production increases, which also had a negative impact on crude oil and led to a significant decrease in international oil prices. As the international situation gradually stabilized, crude oil entered a range of volatile trends. As of April 25th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.02 per barrel, an increase of $0.23 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.87 per barrel, an increase of $0.32 or 0.5%.
Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of April 27th, East China Company quoted 5400 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5450 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5650-5700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5550 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 27, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has temporarily stabilized, with a current price of 6800 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably with normal sales, with a price reduction of 800 yuan/ton compared to March 31. As of April 24th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 719-721 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 744-746 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 103 US dollars/ton from March 28th.
Market forecast: The recent fluctuations in the crude oil market are relatively small, and the direction of the trend is not clear, which has little impact on the toluene market. The main factors affecting the market in the near future are supply and demand. The expected new production capacity on the supply side has been released recently, and the market generally expects loose supply in the future. Coupled with the recent influx of more port cargo, the supply side is relatively loose. The demand side is approaching the May Day holiday and the downstream is actively replenishing inventory. In a short period of time, demand has partially rebounded, and the support from the demand side is relatively weak. Overall, under the atmosphere of loose supply, it is expected that the performance of the toluene market will continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6541.67 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6558.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.25%.
The market price of isopropanol has slightly increased this week. The price of raw material acetone is rising, and the isopropanol market is tentatively increasing, but there is a lack of confidence in the future market. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6400-6500 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu are around 6650-6700 yuan/ton. Overall, the confidence in the isopropanol market is average, with a focus on maintaining stability.
In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetone in China was 5970 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 5990 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.34%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the acetone market is average, and offers maintain range fluctuations.
In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market is on the rise. At the beginning of the week, the market was at 6728.25 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6685.75 yuan/ton, with a downward trend of 0.63%. At present, manufacturers are offering discounts and downstream customers are purchasing at lower prices according to demand. It is expected that the market will remain weak and stable in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the acetone market price is rising, the propylene price is falling, and the cost support is average. Downstream markets will purchase according to demand, and isopropanol will maintain stable operation. It is expected that the isopropanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term, with more attention paid to changes in the raw material market.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling and risen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 21st, the DOP price was 8159.16 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and stabilized compared to the DOP price of 8159.16 yuan/ton on April 14th; Compared to April 17th, the DOP price of 8142.50 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 0.20%. The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has stabilized at a low level, the output of plasticizer DOP has remained stable, the price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased, and the cost increase combined with weak supply and demand has increased the support for plasticizer rise and weakened the downward pressure.
This week, the price of raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and risen
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 21st, the price of isooctanol was 7533.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.57% compared to the price of 7416.67 yuan/ton on April 17th; Compared to the price of 7850 yuan/ton on April 4th, the price of isooctanol has decreased by 4.03%. This week, the price of isooctanol is the lowest in 21 years. Isooctanol enterprises have started production at a low level and remained stable, while the supply from isooctanol manufacturers has temporarily stabilized. The downward pressure on isooctanol prices has weakened, and the upward support has increased. The cost of plasticizers has stopped falling and risen.
This week, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 21, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94% compared to the price of 7100 yuan/ton on April 17; Compared to April 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell by 7216.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69%. The equipment production of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is slowly recovering, and downstream procurement is concentrated this week. The demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists. The cost support of plasticizer raw materials has increased.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has rebounded, the price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of demand, downstream production remains weak, and US tariffs affect the expected demand for plasticizers in the market, resulting in continued weak demand for plasticizers. In the future, with rising costs and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain strong and stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 14th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7930 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.58%. The domestic BDO market is operating in a wait-and-see manner. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has declined, and production enterprises are actively supporting the market. The overall load of downstream industries has not changed significantly, but there is pressure on the cost side and bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory. Supply and demand tug of war, narrow market focus consolidation.

There are significant fluctuations in the supply and installation aspects, and the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has dropped to around 4.5%, resulting in a reduction in market supply of goods. And the industry has been in a long-term loss making state, with a focus on maintaining market stability among suppliers. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
Cost wise, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has experienced an overall decline. The instability of downstream demand is the main reason for the downward trend in prices. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 3:00 pm on April 18th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2415 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are running weakly, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, most downstream industries have maintained low market conditions, with profit margins compressed and resistance to new cycle sales policies, resulting in poor order fulfillment. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: The supply-demand game will continue, and market fluctuations may be limited. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7216.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.91% compared to the price of 7433.33 yuan/ton on April 7th. The equipment operating load of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is slowly recovering, the supply of phthalic anhydride is increasing, downstream demand is weak, the price of ortho xylene has dropped significantly, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the weak supply and demand combined with cost reduction have weakened the support for the rise in phthalic anhydride prices, resulting in a fluctuating decline in phthalic anhydride prices.
Supply side: resumption of work and increased supply
The early maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic phthalic anhydride industry has been improved, as well as the capacity utilization rate of the naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry; The utilization rate of production capacity in the domestic phthalic anhydride industry shows low fluctuations, with little overall change. The overall supply of phthalic anhydride in the market has increased.
Demand side: DOP market is fluctuating and falling
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 14th, the DOP price was 8159.17 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.56% from the April 7th DOP price of 8288.75 yuan/ton. The buying atmosphere in the plasticizer market remains weak, the inventory in the plasticizer market is stable, DOP devices are mostly in production reduction mode, the demand for phthalic anhydride is decreasing, and the pressure to lower phthalic anhydride prices is increasing.
The price of raw materials has plummeted, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased
In April, the price of ortho benzene was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 2.74%. The cost of phthalic anhydride has significantly decreased, and the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride has weakened.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are slowly resuming production, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is increasing; In terms of demand, the expected operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has weakened; In terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has dropped significantly, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased. In the future, with weak supply and demand, coupled with cost reduction, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 11th, the reference price for cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was 7963 yuan/ton. Compared with April 6th (reference price for cyclohexanone market was 8212 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 249 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04%.
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province has shown a weak and downward trend overall. During the week, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province experienced a downward trend, with the focus of cyclohexanone negotiations shifting towards lower levels. As of April 11th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong Province is expected to be around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.

Market influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of cyclohexanone is stable, but downstream user demand is insufficient. Overall demand inquiries are cautious, and the transmission of supply and demand is slow and hindered. The market support for cyclohexanone provided by both supply and demand sides is lacking.
Cost wise: This week, the raw material pure benzene market fluctuated at a low level, providing loose cost support for cyclohexanone. As of April 10th, the reference price of pure benzene was 6135.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.87% compared to April 1st (6659.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in Shandong cyclohexanone market is light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate weakly, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market fluctuated downward in the first half of March 2025 and fluctuated within a certain range in the second half. From March 1st to 31st, the domestic xylene market price fell from 6640 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 4.52% during the period.

Early month: The market in Shandong region is temporarily stable, and the sales of refineries in Shandong region are good during the week. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and trading is relatively stable. The trend in the East and South China markets was relatively weak this week, especially in the South China region where the overall market atmosphere was weak and the negotiation atmosphere was biased due to Sinopec’s price reduction.
Mid month: The decline in the crude oil market during this cycle has dragged down the mentality of the mixed xylene market, and the overall weak operation of the domestic xylene market has been observed. The performance of various regions is basically consistent, with slight differences in the magnitude of the decline. Among them, the Shandong region is affected by the surrounding market and has a weak mentality. The overall weakness on the demand side during the week has led to local refining companies lowering prices and releasing inventory this week, resulting in weak transactions. The overall inventory in the East China region is relatively low, but the liquid chemical market has generally weakened during the week, and the xylene market has clearly followed suit. On exchange trading is generally weak, and downstream stocks are replenished as needed.
Late of the month: There were slight differences in the performance of the domestic mixed xylene market in various regions this week. Due to poor downstream demand, prices in Shandong region fell overall during the week, and local refineries continuously lowered their ex factory quotations and actively shipped. Affected by tight supply within the region, market prices in East and South China have remained stable with slight increases, but actual transactions in the market are limited and demand performance is weak.
Cost wise: The international oil price trend in March has declined. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.36 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.76 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the United States will also ease its oil sanctions against Russia, causing international oil prices to fall. Overall, the trend of international oil prices has declined.
Supply side: Sinopec xylene quotation summary. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of March 31st, East China Company quoted 6300 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6500-6550 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6300 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On March 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7600 yuan/ton for xylene, which was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities operated stably and sold normally, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to February 28th. As of March 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $822-824/ton FOB Korea and $847-849/ton CFR China, a decrease of $19/ton from February 27th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market trend remains weak, with insufficient guidance for the spot market. The supply side in Shandong region has been running at a low inventory level recently, with good sales performance. The market has heard that some devices will be restarted later, and the market expects loose supply in the future. The overall inventory in other regions is stable, moderately high, and the supply is slightly loose. The downstream oil blending industry has a weak purchasing enthusiasm on the demand side, and the overall demand side is biased towards rigid demand. Overall, it is expected that the demand will remain stable and the xylene market will continue to fluctuate within a certain range.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market increased in March. On March 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15240 yuan/ton, and on March 28th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15340 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.66%.
2、 Market analysis
The domestic titanium dioxide market price rose in March. The titanium dioxide market remained stable in the first half of the year. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material sulfuric acid rose, and titanium concentrate consolidated at a high level, putting pressure on factories. The market price of titanium dioxide powder is approaching high-end prices. In the latter half of the year, titanium dioxide companies sent a letter to raise prices, marking the third increase this year. However, downstream demand fell short of expectations and the acceptance of a new round of price increases was low. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16200 yuan/ton; Sharp titanium type costs around 13200-13400 yuan/ton; The actual transaction price is negotiable.
In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of raw material titanium concentrate first rose and then fell in March. At present, downstream titanium dioxide enterprises face significant cost pressure and severe price suppression, resulting in reduced procurement of titanium ore and a focus on essential purchases. Traders have the possibility to sell at low prices, while large factories have low inventory and stable inquiries, resulting in prices remaining firm. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1450-1480 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2130-2150 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2200-2280 yuan/ton. It is expected that in the short term, the mainstream titanium ore prices in the Panxi region will be mainly strong.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s titanium dioxide analyst believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have risen this month. The cost of raw materials is under pressure, and at the end of the month, the company sent another letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide. Overall, the titanium dioxide market is relatively stagnant, and it is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong in the short term. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite has risen this month. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the month was 1850 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 1926 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.14%.
This week, the price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite in the domestic market has increased. The upstream price of sodium metabisulfite, soda ash, has fallen by 1.21% this month, sulfur prices have risen by 16%, and downstream caprolactam prices have fallen by 8.03%. Although the upstream and downstream prices have fallen, the sales of sodium metabisulfite in the market have accelerated, and the industry is mostly optimistic about the future market. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast
At present, the transaction volume of sodium metabisulfite market is accelerating, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3775 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% from the beginning of the week price of 3768.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 12.48%.

Supply side: Mining operations are limited, fluorite supply remains tight

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Some fluorite manufacturers are gradually recovering. However, the fluorite supply in northern regions is obviously insufficient, and the fluorite market trend has slightly risen this week.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price temporarily stable, refrigerant market rising

This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 11300 to 11800 yuan/ton in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, mainly consuming inventory. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the price of fluorite is not affected by this news.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, coupled with the strengthening of terminal policies in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the main trend in the foreign trade market is price increases, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is rising, which has led to an increase in domestic fluorite market prices.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production to undergo safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the downstream refrigerant market has risen, but the acceptance of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is limited. Overall, the domestic fluorite market price is mainly fluctuating.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash has slightly decreased this week. As of March 14th, the average market price of soda ash was 1512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the March 7th soda ash price of 1518 yuan/ton, and an increase of 0.93% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the soda ash market has been consolidating and declining. The on-site equipment remained stable with small movements, and the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity was slightly reduced during the week. Overall, the manufacturer’s quotation remained firm, but the downstream market performance was weak, and the price trend was lowered. Follow up on soda ash demand was necessary, and actual market transactions were limited. Some companies had poor shipments, and the focus of soda ash transactions shifted slightly downwards.

As of March 14th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 60 yuan/ton within the week; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market continues to decline. From March 7th to 14th, glass prices fell from 15.28 yuan/square meter to 14.92 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 2.36%. The downstream glass market has seen an increase in production, an increase in market inventory, weak downstream demand, insufficient market transactions, accumulation of glass inventory, and continuous decline in market prices.

In the future forecast, there will be little change in domestic soda ash facilities, and the utilization rate of production capacity will remain at a medium high level. The increase in market supply is limited, and the downstream market is weak. The enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement is not high, and the supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced. It is expected that soda ash will operate smoothly in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7600 yuan/ton. The cyclohexane market is mainly balanced in supply and demand, with insufficient downstream demand and a narrow and weak overall market operation. Currently, the mainstream market price remains at around 7700 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the upstream cost side lacks support for cyclohexane, and overall market shipments are slow. The upstream pure benzene market is mainly stable, and in the short term, the pure benzene market is operating in a range of consolidation.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the upstream cost support is poor, and it is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, the DOP price was 8138.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.25% compared to the DOP price of 8326.25 yuan/ton on March 1st. Plasticizer DOP enterprises are operating at a low level, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is tight; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increased.

This week, the price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, the price of isooctanol was 7466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from the price of 7666.67 yuan/ton on March 1st. The new production capacity of isooctanol has been put into operation, and the supply of isooctanol has increased, shifting from supply shortage to oversupply. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased.

Decreased demand for plasticizers

The slow start of terminal demand and weak demand for plasticizers have led to a certain degree of inventory pressure in the plasticizer industry. Unsaturated resins and other downstream industries are also facing problems such as slow terminal delivery and insufficient consumption. The growth of plasticizer demand is slow, and the support for plasticizer price increases is insufficient.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has dropped significantly, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, downstream production is slowly recovering, and the demand for plasticizers is decreasing. In the future, with the decrease in costs and weak demand for plasticizers, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market will first rise and then fall in February 2025. From February 1st to 28th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 6670 yuan/ton to 6640 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 0.45% during the period.

First half of the month: The xylene market first rose and then fell, and after the holiday, downstream buyers actively entered the market to purchase and drive the xylene market up. As downstream replenishment came to an end and market demand declined, the xylene market entered a downward trend. There are also some differences in various markets, among which the mixed xylene market in Shandong region is overall declining. Due to insufficient downstream demand, the market procurement enthusiasm is limited, and the overall operation of the Shandong market is weak. Affected by low inventory, market prices in the East China region have slightly increased. Affected by tight supply in the South China region, Sinopec raised its ex factory prices. However, due to insufficient downstream receiving capacity, the market prices slightly declined, with an overall increase followed by a decrease.

In the second half of the week, the xylene market experienced a volatile downward trend, with slight differences in performance across regions. In Shandong, prices first fell and then rose, while downstream demand first weakened and then strengthened during the week. PX and oil blending industries actively entered the market for procurement, driving prices in Shandong to first fall and then rise. Affected by high inventory, the spot market in East China is under pressure and experiencing a slight decline. The overall inventory in southern China is high, and the market is under pressure to decline.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market has fluctuated and fallen this month, with price ranges fluctuating in the first half of the month. After entering the second half, prices first fell and then rose. On February 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.35 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.57 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of February 28th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6750-6800 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On February 28th, the execution price of xylene by the petrochemical sales company was 7500 yuan/ton, and this price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and sold normally, with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to January 31st. As of February 27th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 841-843 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 866-868 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market trend is weak and lacks guidance for the market. On the supply side, the construction in Shandong region is relatively low, and the supply is tight. The port inventory in East China is relatively high, and the supply is loose. The purchasing intention for chemical and oil blending in Shandong region on the demand side is still acceptable, but the downstream trend has been weak recently, which has insufficient boost to the market. Affected by the weakening of PX futures in other regions, the overall purchasing intention is low, and the overall performance of the demand side is slightly bearish. Overall, it is expected that the market will maintain a range oscillation trend in the short term due to the lack of demand support.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC market fluctuated in February and closed flat at the end of the month, basically returning to the price level at the beginning of the month. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, PVC saw a slight increase of 0.12% in February.

2、 Market analysis

Basic trend: At the beginning of the month, the PVC spot market continued its upward trend from the previous month, showing strong performance. With the continuous rise of crude oil and the driving force of the PVC futures market, the linkage between the spot market was obvious, and prices continued to rise. But in the second week of the month, prices fluctuated downward without the support of supply and demand. From mid month to the end of the month, the market returned to calm, supply and demand remained relatively stable, and prices remained moderate and flat.

In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in market transactions recently, and enterprises have rationalized their inventory. This is mainly due to the return after the holiday, the increase in downstream market entry, and the improvement of procurement. But social inventory has also slightly increased, mainly due to manufacturers increasing their operating rates, and there is still some supply pressure in the market.

Cost side and demand: Since February, the sluggish performance of calcium carbide market prices has to some extent limited the strengthening trend of PVC. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society. As of the 28th, the domestic price of calcium carbide has dropped by 5.45%. On the demand side, the increase in downstream operating rates is average. On the one hand, there is inventory pressure, and on the other hand, the resumption of work for hard plastics is slow, with downstream operating rates generally below 50%. In terms of exports, it exhibits strong rigidity. To some extent, it has alleviated the dilemma of insufficient demand.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that fundamentally speaking, supply and demand will continue to recover in March, with both the supply and demand sides showing some improvement, but high supply materials will outweigh the increase in demand. On the one hand, the high operating rate of manufacturers will lead to increased production, which in turn will push up inventory. On the other hand, although downstream PVC product manufacturers are gradually resuming work, their inventory is high, and market procurement remains mainly for essential needs. The export situation will continue to improve. Combined with the March meeting, driven by favorable policies, PVC prices are expected to maintain a strong trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid remained stable on February 26th, with a market average price of 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price, and a decrease of 2.37% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic acetic acid market is stable with small fluctuations, and prices in some regions have been lowered. The domestic production rate of acetic acid is relatively high, and enterprises maintain active shipment. Downstream companies mainly follow up on demand, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. Acetic acid prices are running steadily; The mentality of operators in Jiangsu region is poor, downstream demand is weak, and enterprise shipments are not smooth, resulting in a slight shift in the focus of acetic acid transactions.

On February 26th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ February 25th/ February 26th/ rise and fall

South China region/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 2805 yuan/ton/ 2805 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 2830 yuan/ton/ 2830 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 2825 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton/ -25

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market has risen narrowly. On February 26th, the average price in the domestic market was 2603.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to yesterday’s price of 2589.17 yuan/ton. Traditional downstream production has resumed, and downstream market purchases have been boosted. However, the decrease in external prices may have a negative impact on the domestic market, and the methanol market will continue to fluctuate in the future.

On February 26th, the downstream acetic anhydride market remained stable, with an average factory price of 5110 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The upstream acetic acid market remains stable, while the cost support for acetic anhydride is average. Downstream market entry follows suit as needed, and market trading is lukewarm. The supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced, and the acetic anhydride market is running steadily and cautiously.

Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the restart and recovery of domestic facilities are underway, the market operating rate is increasing, the supply of goods is increasing, the downstream market is weak, the demand for acetic acid is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is average. It is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate weakly, and attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation in the future.

The price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell in February

In February 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from the average price of 4711.67 yuan/ton on February 1st.

Recently, the accumulation of ethylene glycol at ports has been significant, suppressing spot prices. After the price drop, contract traders became active and received more orders at low basis prices. On February 25, 2024, the spot contract price of ethylene glycol at the port was lowered, and the basis spread increased. The basis price for this week’s contract increased from+24 to+26 in the morning session, and rose to+27 to+30 in the afternoon session; After the close of trading, the contract basis quotation for the following week will be+38 to+40. The contract basis quotation for March will be+55 to+58, the contract basis quotation for April will be+72 to+74, and the contract basis quotation for May will be+80 to+85.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of February 24th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 549 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 557 US dollars/ton.

Reasons for the recent weakening of ethylene glycol prices

1. Significant accumulation of port inventory

As of February 24, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 709700 tons, an increase of 298200 tons compared to the total inventory of 411500 tons on January 2; The total inventory on February 20th was 725600 tons, a decrease of 15900 tons.

In terms of outbound shipments, on February 24th, a mainstream storage area in Zhangjiagang shipped around 4550 tons of ethylene glycol; The shipment volume of ethylene glycol from the two main storage areas in Taicang is about 4200 tons.

The increase in port arrivals and the restart of domestic pre maintenance facilities have brought about an increase in supply, raising market expectations of oversupply, despite some domestic facilities (such as Fujian and Xinjiang) entering maintenance status.

2. Cost side fluctuations

External crude oil prices have loosened, with limited cost support. The dominant factor in market prices tends to be supply and demand considerations.

3. Downstream demand is mainly driven by short-term consumption of inventory goods

Downstream terminals are gradually resuming production, mainly consuming more inventory. The production of polyester may be affected by the operating rate of terminal demand, resulting in weak demand expectations.

In February, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased significantly, with some areas exceeding 10000 yuan. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 24th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9375 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.17% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: The propylene market is affected by changes in supply and demand, mainly consuming inventory, and the market price is temporarily stable. The increase in propylene based epichlorohydrin is limited; Due to tight supply and high production costs in the glycerol market, prices have increased. Supported by favorable cost factors, the price of glycerol based epichlorohydrin has been positively pushed up. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 24th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6858.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The supply of epichlorohydrin in the market has decreased. Dongying Liancheng’s 100000 tons/year glycerol process unit is currently shut down, and the restart time will be notified separately. Hengyang Jiantao’s 50000 tons/year propylene process unit will shut down on February 17th, and the restart time will be notified separately. In addition, some devices are in a long-term parking state. Overall, the operating rate of the epichlorohydrin industry is about 50-60%.

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin industry is experiencing slow growth in production. At present, the overall operating rate of liquid resin is 70-80%, and the overall operating rate of solid resin is 50-60%. The market price of liquid epoxy resin has increased, with positive inquiries and a good trading atmosphere. The demand for solid epoxy resin is generally average, and market purchases are replenished as needed, with small order transactions being the main focus. Overall, downstream demand is showing a stable to strong trend.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that with the rise in glycerol prices and high cost support, coupled with the shutdown of some epoxy chloropropane production enterprises, the supply of epoxy chloropropane will be reduced. The attitude of holders of goods is positive, and the atmosphere of price increase is strong. At the same time, the overall downstream demand atmosphere has also improved. Supported by favorable supply and demand, it is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will maintain a strong trend in the near future, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has declined this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1015 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% and a year-on-year increase of 25.96%. On February 20th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 843 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 40.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the caustic soda market has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 940-1000 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 950-1080 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of 2900-3000 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has been weak, with downstream resistance and market inventory accumulation due to price increases. Downstream alumina is expected to observe the market trend and see that caustic soda prices will be weak.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak due to the accumulation of market inventory and average downstream demand. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 10th to February 17th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12637.5 yuan/ton to 12375 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.08% during the period. This week, the butadiene market has been running weakly, and the supply side has not changed much recently, with an overall stability. Recently, the demand side synthetic rubber market has performed poorly, and the futures market as a whole is weak. The purchase of raw material butadiene remains in high demand, and market transactions are weak, resulting in an overall weak market atmosphere. As of February 17th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is between 12380-12500 yuan/ton. The self pickup price for container delivery in East China ranges from 12000 to 12100 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, with little overall fluctuation. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at $75.02 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene by 300 yuan/ton and implemented 12400 yuan/ton. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber markets have been operating weakly this cycle, and the butadiene rubber market in Shanghai has been consolidating weakly. The futures price of Shunding rubber fluctuated weakly, while the supply price of Shunding rubber spot suppliers remained stable for the time being, and merchant offers were slightly adjusted. At present, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Sichuan, Yangtze, Qixiang, Chuanhua, and Qilu Shunding are 14550-14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: In terms of cost, the recent weak trend in the crude oil market will drive the weak atmosphere in the spot market. The supply side has slightly rebounded recently, with loose supply. The demand side has maintained on-demand procurement in the near future, with overall weak transactions. Overall, the overall performance of the butadiene market is stable but slightly weak, with a lack of demand support. It is expected that there will be some downward adjustment space in the future, continuing the weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 14th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 9200 yuan/ton. Compared with February 9th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9062 yuan/ton, the price has increased by 138 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, has been stable and rising. During the week, the overall focus of the cyclohexanone market shifted upwards, with low prices gradually decreasing and the gap between high and low prices narrowing. As of February 14th, the reference price for cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province is around 9150-9350 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply and demand: After the holiday, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province is gradually recovering and operating. As we enter this week, the market situation continues to be positive, with some equipment undergoing maintenance and overall supply being tight in the market. The pressure on the supply side is relatively small, and spot inventory is available. Downstream solvent and chemical fiber markets require essential procurement, with good transmission between supply and demand.

Cost wise: This week, the cost side raw material pure benzene has risen, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. On February 13th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7801.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.29% compared to February 1st (7553.00 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week (1.18-1.24), the downward trend of dichloromethane continued to expand. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 24th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2465 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 7.85%;

Logistics are restricted near the Spring Festival, market trading is weak, and demand support is insufficient. On January 24th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2410-2450 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The starting load this week remains stable compared to last week. The following is the operation status of the enterprise’s methane chloride unit:

Cost aspect: With the holiday approaching and poor demand, the shipment of methanol and liquid chlorine is under pressure, and the market continues to decline. On January 24th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.65% from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The refrigerant market is facing tight supply, with prices maintaining stability and exploring upward trends. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, foreign trade delivery is not optimistic, and the domestic trade atmosphere is light.

Business analysts believe that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, transportation restrictions, holiday arrangements, and other factors will further affect overall production and sales. Waiting for resumption of work and production after the holiday, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate weakly and steadily after the holiday.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable on January 23, with a market average price of 1494 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day’s price of 1494 yuan/ton, and a 2.23% decrease from the beginning of the month. On January 23, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 76.62, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 59.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 21.33% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

On January 23rd, the soda ash market operated steadily. The operating rate of the supply side soda ash plant is still at a high level, the market supply of goods is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively high, maintaining active shipment; On the demand side, the terminal market prices are generally average, with limited replenishment demand and insufficient support for soda ash. Enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and soda ash quotations remain stable.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices were lowered on January 23, with a market average price of 16.30 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.81% compared to the previous trading day’s price of 16.60 yuan/square meter. The glass market equipment has not changed much, and the production has remained stable. The downstream stocking demand has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The glass market is weak and declining.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity is high, the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient, and the downstream glass market is weak. The demand for soda ash is average, and there is a supply-demand game in the market. It is expected that the soda ash market will operate weakly, depending on downstream market demand.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On January 21st, the average market price was 7519.67 yuan/ton

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market is temporarily stable and consolidating. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have stable prices for pure benzene, with a price of 7500 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, Shandong’s local refining enterprises mainly focus on stocking up and raising prices. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is still acceptable. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and it is expected that the pure benzene market will stabilize and operate in the short term. Actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

1、 Review of the 2024 Epichlorohydrin Market:

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of epichlorohydrin at the beginning of the year was 8125 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 7987 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.7% for the whole year. According to the price trend chart, the highest point of the year’s price occurred in mid December, with a market average price of 9225 yuan/ton. The lowest point of the year’s price occurred in mid July, with a market average price of 7875 yuan/ton, and the maximum fluctuation range for the year was 1350 yuan/ton.

From the trend chart, we can see that the epoxy chloropropane market in 2024 shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the first half of the year, the epoxy chloropropane market fluctuated downward, and in the second half of the year, the price rapidly increased before experiencing a slight decline. The supply-demand game is an important cause of price fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there was an overall oversupply in the market, and traders were cautious and cautious, with prices remaining low; In the second half of the year, high raw material prices provided support, and most enterprises were operating at full capacity. In addition, some factories were temporarily shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods in the market. At the same time, downstream demand has improved, procurement is active, and prices continue to rise, maintaining an upward trend.

From the perspective of raw materials:

Glycerol: High market prices and cost pressures on glycerol in 2024

The profit of the propylene process unit in 2024 is around 70.54 yuan/ton, and the profit of the glycerol process unit is about 218.07 yuan/ton. Around June, glycerol prices experienced a decline, while the cost profit of epichlorohydrin remained relatively considerable; After entering the second half of the year, glycerol prices rapidly rose, leading to increased costs and slightly insufficient profits for suppliers.

Acrylic: China’s propylene market will fluctuate and decline in 2024

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 6868.25 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6835.75 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.47% in the market during the year. Based on the comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the price of propylene will show a fluctuating trend in 2025. The specific trend still requires close attention to market dynamics and policy support.

2、 2025 Epichlorohydrin Supply End Forecast:

The production capacity of epichlorohydrin will grow rapidly in 2024, with a total capacity of approximately 2.215 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.91%. Driven by the expansion of production capacity, the output has also increased. The domestic production of epichlorohydrin in 2024 is about 1.275 million tons, an increase of 7.74% compared to last year.

From the graph, it can be seen that the production capacity of epichlorohydrin will maintain a growth trend in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The newly added production capacity in 2023 will be around 300000 tons, and in 2024 it will be around 140000 tons. The production in 2024 will also increase slightly compared to 2023, and it is expected that the supply side of epichlorohydrin will continue to show incremental expectations in 2025.

In 2025, the epichlorohydrin industry will see the commissioning of multiple new production capacity projects and steady expansion of existing capacity. Against the backdrop of high downstream demand potential, technological innovation, and increasing environmental requirements, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.

3、 Forecast of demand for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

Epoxy resin is the largest downstream of epichlorohydrin, accounting for about 90%. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of epoxy resin will first decrease and then increase in 2024. The highest value of the year occurred in December at about 14066.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest value of the year occurred in April at about 12600.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 11.64%. The production capacity and output of epoxy resin will steadily increase in 2024, providing strong support for the epoxy chloropropane industry and further driving its market demand growth. It is expected that the production capacity of epoxy resin will continue to grow in 2025, and more attention should be paid to the impact of the industry’s operating conditions on the epoxy chloropropane market.

Import and export

In terms of imports, according to customs data, the total import volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 646.97 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%. From the graph, it can be seen that the import volume of epichlorohydrin in China has shown a decreasing trend year by year. Mainly due to the overcapacity of epichlorohydrin production in China in recent years, the import arbitrage window has narrowed, the dependence on imports has decreased, and coupled with weak domestic demand, some factories are producing at low loads, limiting the growth rate of production and resulting in a decrease in import volume. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous expansion of production capacity and output, China’s epichlorohydrin industry will gradually achieve self-sufficiency and not rely on imports.

In terms of exports, according to customs data, the total export volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 84352719 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.79%. In 2024, it has surpassed the high level of 72000 tons in 2022 and set a new historical high. With the continuous expansion of production capacity and increasingly fierce industry competition, domestic enterprises are actively seeking overseas markets. It is expected that the export volume of epichlorohydrin in China will continue to increase by 2025.

4、 Market forecast for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of epichlorohydrin will increase in 2025, and the demand side may still dominate the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will fluctuate narrowly in 2025, and more attention should still be paid to cost pressures.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1711 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% lower than the reference average price of 1721 yuan/ton on January 13th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated slightly. As of January 17th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1600-1655 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1650 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1760 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has seen stable supply and increased demand. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week, and market inventory remains loose. In terms of demand, there has been an increase in downstream agricultural demand before the holiday, smooth transactions in the urea market, and a decrease in industrial demand.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been mainly fluctuating at a low level recently. At present, the demand for pre holiday market replenishment is increasing, and downstream replenishment demand will gradually weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate prices continued to bottom out and fluctuate in mid January. As of January 15th, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 76300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from last week’s 76000 yuan/ton and a decrease of 2.18% from the same period last month’s 78000 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 79100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from 78600 yuan/ton last week and down 1.62% from 80400 yuan/ton in the same period last month.

In terms of raw materials:

The shutdown or reduction of production by some Australian lithium mining companies may put upward pressure on lithium ore prices,. However, at the same time, the expected production of lithium resources in salt lakes is optimistic and has a cost competitive advantage. The sufficient supply of lithium resources in salt lakes and low-cost production are expected to have a certain inhibitory effect on the market price of lithium carbonate.

Downstream demand side

The operating rate of downstream battery factories has increased, and there is still a demand for pre holiday stocking. The power battery market has performed well, especially in the production and sales of ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, and electric vehicles, which have achieved considerable month on month growth. This growth trend has had a corresponding boosting effect on the demand for lithium carbonate. Internationally, the results of the US presidential election have been implemented, and tariffs may increase in the future, leading to an increase in battery factory production.

According to the analysis of lithium carbonate data from Shengyi Society, although some Australian mines are experiencing production cuts and shutdowns. However, the overall inventory of lithium carbonate is still excessive, and downstream demand is improving. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5% compared to the same period last year. On January 9th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.66% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 30.41% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are conducting centralized maintenance. Most downstream manufacturers have also stopped production. Downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1654.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1624.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.81% and an increase of 75.29% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. However, downstream demand for bromine has decreased, with demand mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5746.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 5816.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.20%. Due to insufficient support from suppliers, weak downstream demand, and poor market trading, the price of ethyl acetate has weakened and declined.

Market analysis: This month, the ethyl acetate market has fluctuated and fallen. During the month, there were frequent changes in the ethyl acetate plant, and the mentality of the industry was unstable. At the same time, downstream performance was poor, demand remained weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light. In a timely manner, upstream acetic acid prices rose, but the price increase of ethyl acetate was still limited, resulting in a supply-demand game in the market. The overall price of ethyl acetate fluctuated weakly during the month.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of December 31st, the price was 2970 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.68% compared to the acetic acid price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market first fell and then rose, increasing cost pressure and reducing profits for ethyl acetate.

Looking at the future, the current price of ethyl acetate has been adjusted downwards, and downstream entry enthusiasm is not high, which provides weak support for the market. Although the price of raw material acetic acid is strong, there may be some psychological support, but the supply and demand game continues in the market. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will continue to be weakly adjusted and operated in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices declined in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 1021 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 827 yuan/ton. The overall price decreased by 19%, and the price increased by 3.63% compared to the same period last year. On December 30th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 823 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 41.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 37.63% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 900-960 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 780-850 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. Local prices in Shandong remain stable and wait-and-see, while overall supply from enterprises is sufficient. Downstream alumina exhibits narrow fluctuations, with demand driven purchasing trends.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 52nd week of 2024 (12.23-12.27), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 4 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are caustic soda (-5.30%) and PVC (-0.20%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.92%.

Business analysts believe that caustic soda prices have been consolidating recently. The price of caustic soda is in a stable operating trend, with sufficient inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is generally expected to maintain a stable operating trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market experienced a unilateral decline in December. From December 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5450 yuan/ton to 5162 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.28% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 23.32%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a weak decline, with some areas affected by the previous snowfall, resulting in logistics disruptions and pressure on shipments. In addition, there was ample supply of spot goods, leading to significant pressure on enterprises to reduce inventory. At the same time, demand side support was poor, with rigid demand procurement being the main factor, resulting in a decrease in ethanol prices. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market remained sluggish and lacked positive news support, leading to continued weak downstream demand. Holders of goods are experiencing slow shipments, resulting in overall high pressure on shipments. Manufacturers are under pressure to sell at a discount, causing ethanol prices to fluctuate and fall. At the end of the month, the price of ethanol in the domestic market fell significantly, and the supply was relatively high. Downstream gas purchases were mediocre, and prices from manufacturers kept falling.

On the cost side, the market price of raw material corn is weak and falling, and the inventory of southern ports is rising. There is a lot of storage pressure, and the ports are still receiving goods one after another. Traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, maintaining high quotes and low prices, and there is a lot of bargaining space. Recently, downstream procurement enthusiasm has been low, port transactions have been limited, and the rise in futures prices has been weak. Traders have generally lowered their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate is rumored to be operating at a high level. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future market forecast shows that the spot supply is abundant, the terminal Baijiu consumption has little change, and the demand side support is limited. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated in December, with a slight overall increase. On December 1st, the market price of aniline was 9337 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, the price was 9375 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.4% and a decrease of 12.89% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market in December was dominated by supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material pure benzene increased, and the profit of aniline narrowed. Under cost pressure, aniline slightly rose, and downstream acceptance was average. Subsequently, the market digested the increase, and the price remained stable. At the end of the month, the company’s stock flow was average, and inventory pressure increased. At the same time, the price of pure benzene fell, and the price of aniline began to decline. The price fell to a low level, downstream entered the market at a low price, and after the release of upstream inventory, the price slightly increased.

Pure benzene: In December, the pure benzene market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, downstream buying increased, and the price of pure benzene rose. Subsequently, there was a high-level consolidation and operation, while downstream prices of pure benzene saw a slight decline due to high raw material prices, tightened profits, and weak purchasing intentions. On December 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7338 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, the average price of pure benzene was 7513 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.37% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current favorable support for the aniline market is insufficient, and the raw material pure benzene is showing a weak trend. At the same time, the downstream is in a stalemate and waiting, and inventory is accumulating on the market. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased recently, with a 50 yuan/ton increase on Thursday and a 100 yuan/ton increase on Friday. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline in East China has risen to 9150 yuan/ton, with acceptance of 9250 yuan/ton. It is reported that the price of aniline has fallen to a low level, and downstream companies have entered the market at a low price, resulting in improved purchasing power and reduced inventory. In addition, with cost support, aniline factories have actively pushed up prices. With the rise in prices, downstream market entry is cautious, and it is expected that the market will consolidate and operate after the rise of aniline in the short term.

In the off-season of December demand, the market price of epoxy propane hit bottom. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8370 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.85% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: In December, most factories plan to resume production of maintenance equipment. At present, there is insufficient price support on the supply side.

Raw material side: The rise and fall of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side varies. At present, the factory price of mainstream liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province is 150-200 yuan/ton. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6895.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand side is relatively cold, with insufficient follow-up on procurement, cold actual market transactions, and mainly focused on first-time purchases, adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Overall, during the off-season of market demand, the demand for epichlorohydrin is relatively weak.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that due to the impact of the off-season, downstream demand side parking and maintenance, weakened procurement volume, and the gradual closure of enterprises towards the end of the year, it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.77% during the period, a month on month increase of 4.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise. The main regional equipment in the Middle East has changed, and the expected reduction in methanol import volume is expected. Port methanol inventory is gradually entering the channel of destocking, and the market is dominated by a bullish mentality.

As of the close on December 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2629 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2637 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2605 yuan/ton. It closed at 2610 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 9% or 0.34% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 499967 lots, with a holding volume of 674811 lots and a daily increase of 10634 lots.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. With the continuous decline in quotes from Beigang, market pessimism is spreading, and there is a lack of motivation to transport goods from production areas. At present, the overall market supply exceeds demand, the willingness of terminal procurement is low, and the support for coal prices is insufficient. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: there may be an increase in demand for acetic acid methanol; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: The expected shutdown of a dimethyl ether unit has reduced the demand for methanol; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 12th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 124.00-125.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 433.00-434.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, factory supply may decrease, and under low inventory, enterprises will mainly sell at high prices; In terms of ports, due to changes in equipment in the main regions of the Middle East, the mentality is relatively strong, and inventory may continue to be depleted. Downstream demand is expected to maintain incremental growth. Methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the domestic adipic acid market has been continuously rising since December, with an overall increase. On December 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 6th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.41%.

Cost increases, domestic adipic acid market continues to rise

At the beginning of December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise. Mainly due to the rising prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, the cost has increased, and the demand for purchasing adipic acid from end-users has increased. With the strong bullish sentiment of adipic acid manufacturers and multiple bullish factors supporting it, the adipic acid market continues to rise, with prices rising. The mainstream market price is 8500-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is recovering.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of adipic acid is still loose, and in the short term, there is insufficient momentum for the sustained rise of the adipic acid market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall TDI market in China was weak in November, with a gradual decline. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12950 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the TDI price was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%.

The performance of the domestic TDI market in November was average, continuing to be weak, and the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Except for a few devices that experienced short-term shutdowns and unstable operation during the month, the overall operation of other devices was stable, with limited supply side benefits. Downstream demand has not improved, with rigid demand as the main factor and insufficient purchasing power. Under the game of supply and demand, the focus of TDI transactions continues to shift downwards.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated and fell. As of November 28th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 5723 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.35% from the price of 5860 yuan/ton on November 1st. The supply and demand of toluene in the month are weak, and the demand in the chemical industry in Shandong is still acceptable. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high, and the overall downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand. The inventory in southern China is high, and refineries are actively shipping. At the end of the month, the futures market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the price of toluene has rebounded slightly.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is a strong willingness to raise prices in the upstream market, and the low-end prices of TDI are tightening. The atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet, and the factory settlement price at the end of the month is about to be released. We are waiting for the news to land and expect the TDI market to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1556 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.77%. On November 29th, the light soda ash commodity index was 79.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 26.35% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak this month. The utilization rate of on-site soda ash production capacity is relatively high, and the market supply is sufficient. Although glass prices are running strongly, the benefits for soda ash are not obvious. Downstream purchasing is limited, and market trading is still weak. The situation of on-site supply exceeding demand is obvious, and the soda ash market continues to be weak.

As of November 29, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in the East China region is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in Central China is around 1380-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in North China is around 1600-1630 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of glass this month first increased and then decreased. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.95 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.57%. The glass spot market is fluctuating at a high level, and downstream market entry follows demand. The trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable, and the glass market is relatively strong and operating steadily.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of soda ash and glass commodities on November 29th was 81.77, up 1 point from yesterday, down 27.23% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and up 7.24% from the lowest point of 76.25 points on November 17, 2024. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has remained stable in the near future, while the downstream glass market price has fallen. However, there is insufficient support for soda ash, and the utilization rate of supply side soda ash production capacity has increased. Sales pressure still exists for enterprises, and the mentality of operators is wait-and-see. It is expected that the price of soda ash will run weakly in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on November 28th was around 1548 yuan/ton. On November 27th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1556 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1880 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, with sulfur prices rising by 1.24% and downstream caprolactam prices rising by 1.15%. Although the upstream sulfur and downstream caprolactam prices of sodium metabisulfite have increased, it cannot cover the situation of limited transactions in the sodium metabisulfite market, and the price of sodium metabisulfite is weak. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading of sodium metabisulfite market is light, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3675 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% from the beginning of the week price of 3668.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite remains tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease of temperature in the north, the fluorite supply has decreased, and the fluorite market.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices temporarily stable, refrigerant market rises

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton recently. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In November, hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised their prices, which boosted the trend of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a continuous increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. Overall, the domestic fluorite market is fluctuating at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, aniline has fallen twice recently, with a magnitude of 300 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton respectively, and the price has fallen near the cost line. Recently, the production of aniline has increased, and at the same time, a certain factory’s aniline plant has plans to restart. Downstream companies are cautious about entering the market, and the flow of aniline is not smooth. In order to stimulate the flow of goods, prices have continued to decline. After the decline, the market atmosphere has improved, and the factory has raised prices. It is expected that in the short term, there will be limited room for further decline in the price of aniline, and it will operate weakly and consolidate.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.96% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on November 10th. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, the supply of isooctanol decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply of isooctanol has decreased and demand has remained stable. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen.

Reduced supply of isooctanol

The operating load of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has decreased. Lihua Yi Enterprise’s octanol equipment has been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the supply of isooctanol in the market and increased support for its upward trend.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the DOP price was 9438.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9238.75 yuan/ton on November 10th. The demand for plasticizer DOP is stable, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and rises. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers is stable. The demand support for isooctanol still exists.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that the operating load of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, the supply of isooctanol has decreased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol has increased; Downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a high level, and the demand for isooctanol is stable. In the future, with the resumption of production and sufficient supply of isooctanol, the supply and demand of isooctanol will be relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol will stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 15, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6900 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.70%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early November, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed an upward trend. The price of n-butanol has been rising from 6900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to around 7500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.7% in the first half of the month. On November 15th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region was around 7300-7700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Rising Market Trend

In terms of demand: In the first half of the year, the overall demand performance of the downstream market for n-butanol was good, downstream users ushered in phased stocking, new transactions for n-butanol improved, and the overall market atmosphere was boosted. The demand side provided upward support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of supply: At the beginning of the month, the supply of n-butanol showed stable performance, with smooth transmission between supply and demand and little supply pressure. Subsequently, the n-butanol plant of a large factory in Shandong was shut down for maintenance, and the overall supply in the field became tight. The supply side supported the market trend and continued to adjust upwards.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ November 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7700 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7700 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8000-8100 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7900-8000 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, there is a temporary production stoppage and reduction phenomenon on the supply side, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has improved. The supply and demand transmission is still good. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been raised twice this week, by 200 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline has risen to 9400 yuan/ton, with an acceptance of 9550 yuan/ton. It is reported that the recent improvement in the shipment of aniline, coupled with low prices in the early stage and increased downstream purchasing willingness, has led to smooth destocking of factories. There are plans for factories to start production in the future, and supply is expected to increase. It is expected that the short-term upward space for aniline will be limited, and the main focus will be on digesting the increase.

The construction peak season of Golden September and Silver October saw an overall improvement in supply and demand fundamentals. In early October, the asphalt market was dominated, but due to limited demand and weak cost factors, the asphalt market experienced a slight decline at the end of the month. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3390 yuan/ton on October 1st, and reached 3522 yuan/ton on October 31st, an increase of 3.89%.

From a cost perspective, the weakening of geopolitical risks, the decline in oil prices, and the neutral fundamentals provide support for prices, and it is expected that the macro level will be boosted. In the short term, an oil price of $72 per barrel is reasonable, and we will focus on macro policies and the recovery of OPEC+production cuts in the future.

In terms of supply, the output in November was 2.35 million tons, an increase of 30000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 430000 tons compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the actual production in October will be around 2.1 million tons, and the actual production in September will be 2 million tons. The average daily production in October was 75000 tons. Due to the significant impact of the resumption of production by Qilu Petrochemical and Beihai Refining, as well as the increase in production by Jinling Petrochemical and Ke Petrochemical, the main focus of production increase is on the main business.

From a demand perspective, there were varying degrees of destocking in different regions in October. The overall inventory reached 1.983 million tons, lower than the average of the past five years.

From a seasonal perspective, November showed a downward trend, and it is expected that the supply-demand imbalance will ease and the price range will shift downwards; From the perspective of Business Society, the short-term supply-demand mismatch provides support for prices, and it is expected that the supply-demand contradiction will ease and the oscillation range will shift downwards from November.