Price trend of spot precious metals

 

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According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on October 30 was 403.78 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.80% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (10.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 16.02%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 19.79% compared with the peak price of (8.7) silver in the year/ G, down 11.29%.

 

On October 30, the average price of silver market was 4947.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.47% compared with the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4281.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 13.05%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 68.12%; compared with the peak price of 8.11, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 26.25%.

 

Year on year decline in physical demand

 

According to the data of the world gold association, global gold demand in the third quarter was 892.3 tons, down 19% year-on-year. According to historical statistics, this is the lowest total quarterly demand since the third quarter of 2009. Among them, the global demand for gold jewelry in the third quarter was 333.0 tons, 29% lower than that in the same period in 2019;

 

From the first quarter to the third quarter of 2020, the total global demand for gold is 2972.1 tons, down 10% year-on-year.

 

Domestic, the actual consumption of gold is 548.09 tons. Among them, the consumption of gold jewelry was 343.08 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.43%; gold bars and gold coins were 142.52 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.07%; industrial and other uses consumption was 62.49 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.11%.

 

Investment demand pushes noble metal prices to slow down in the third quarter

 

In the first three quarters of 2020, the cumulative inflow of global gold ETFs is 1003.3 tons. At present, the global gold ETF total position reached 3880.0 tons, a record.

 

Among them, the increase in global gold ETFs in the third quarter of 2020 was 272.5 tons, slower than that in the first half of 2020.

 

Physical investment surged in the third quarter

 

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In the third quarter of 2020, the global investment demand for gold bars and gold coins was 222.1 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 49%. There was strong growth in retail investment markets, such as Western markets, China and Turkey, but continued strong net sales in Thailand.

 

Global central bank gold demand net sales

 

In the third quarter of 2020, global central bank gold demand showed a net sale of 12.1 tons, the first quarter since 2010.

 

Future forecast

 

After the continuous rise of precious metals driven by investment demand, the price of precious metals reached the current year’s peak in the third quarter, and then the market heat retreated slightly with profit taking.

 

Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the monetary easing policies of the major central banks continue, and the price supporting factors are still there. In addition, the geopolitical risks such as the Sino US situation and the Taiwan Strait situation are relatively strong, and the space for further price reduction of precious metals is narrowed, and the probability of stabilizing the horizontal market is increased.

 

Key indicators for future market

 

1. Global GDP and other data will be released

 

2. The three central banks of Japan, euro zone and Canada will announce the interest rate resolution

 

3. US bipartisan stimulus plan negotiations and US election progress

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market of potassium carbonate showed a downward trend in October. At the beginning of the month, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6187.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6150.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The current price fell by 0.61% month on month, and the current price was 4.47% lower than that of last year.

 

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This month, the domestic market of potassium carbonate fell slightly, and the operating rate of downstream plants did not rise significantly. Most of the raw materials were purchased on demand. The trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market was not warm and the actual transactions were less. Generally speaking, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers was low, and the market was in the situation of oversupply. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

 

Recently, the actual transaction of potassium chloride market is not good. The ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly demanding, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market kinetic energy is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

 

Business Club potassium carbonate analysts believe that the recent supply of potassium chloride port supply is relatively adequate, the market is in a high consolidation. Domestic potash fertilizer market new deal is not positive. The price of potassium carbonate is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

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The “silver ten” market is coming to an end, and the demand side is gradually weakening. According to the price monitoring of business agencies, the domestic cocoon and silk market showed a downward trend at the end of October. The current average price of raw silk market is 295000 yuan / ton, down 3.12% compared with the 25th, and 28.05% year-on-year; the average price of dried cocoon market is 90500 yuan / ton, down 0.82% compared with the 25th and 33.82% year-on-year. At present, the price of dried cocoon is 89000 yuan / ton and that of raw silk is 300000 yuan / ton in Guangxi.

 

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Autumn cocoons in Guangxi continue to be listed. According to some local cocoon stations, the purchase price in Yizhou is maintained at about 42-44 yuan / kg; Baise’s purchase price is higher, reaching about 42-45 yuan / kg due to its better cocoon quality. Yunnan Dali cocoons began to be listed in the late autumn. At present, the purchase price is 39-40 yuan / kg, which is still in the initial stage of listing, and the quantity of cocoons on the market is relatively small.

 

The purchasing work of autumn cocoon in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province has been finished. The average price of autumn cocoon purchase this year is 32 yuan / kg, which is 28.89% lower than 45 yuan / kg in the same period of last year, and 5.88% lower than that of 34 yuan / kg this year. However, the average yield of autumn cocoon this year is 45.5 kg, which is the highest per unit yield for many years, which is 28.17% higher than that of 35.5 kg in the same period last year, and is basically the same as this year’s spring cocoon.

 

The fifth batch of cocoons in Chun’an County, Zhejiang Province, took the lead in purchasing cocoon stations such as Langchuan and fenkou on October 12. By October 25, all cocoons had been collected and dried. This year’s late mid autumn cocoon yield is high, good quality, the average yield of nearly 40 kg, but the purchase price has dropped compared with the same period last year. In the late Mid Autumn Festival, 11492 cocoons were distributed, 378.5 tons of cocoons were purchased, and the purchase price was 43.8 yuan / kg.

 

The international and domestic textile and clothing markets continue to pick up as the “double 11″, Christmas, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in September 2020, the export of textiles and clothing reached 28.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.2%, including 13.15 billion US dollars of textile exports, an increase of 35.8%, and clothing exports of 15.22 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.2%. In addition, this year’s cold winter is expected to be good for this year’s winter clothing sales, winter cold resistant fabric more goods, factory orders to maintain near the early ten days of November. For example, in the traditional market of China Light and Textile City, the varieties of new fashion fabrics and leisure top fabrics in autumn and winter increased, and the transaction volume of many varieties increased.

 

According to business agency analysts, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still severe, and some European and American countries and regions have taken restrictive measures again. There is still great uncertainty in demand recovery, and textile enterprises also have concerns. Therefore, most enterprises still choose to purchase on demand and produce according to order. At the same time, the domestic demand market will enter the traditional off-season in November, and the price of cocoon silk will also show a weak trend at the end of the month. Therefore, it is expected that the price of cocoon and silk will continue to weaken in November.

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Price trend

 

According to the business agency data monitoring, DOP price fell this week, DOP market weakened. As of October 26, DOP price was 7433.33 yuan / ton, down 0.45% from 7466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (October 19).

 

Upstream market of industrial chain

 

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride trend chart, this week, the rise of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride market slowed down, phthalic anhydride price rose by 1.32%, DOP cost rose by shock, and DOP market maintained strong stability.

 

As can be seen from the octanol price trend chart, the octanol market weakened this week, the octanol price fell by 0.22%, the DOP cost decreased, and the DOP market fell.

 

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Downstream market of industrial chain

 

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, this week, the PVC market fluctuated and rose, the PVC price slowly recovered and rose, with an increase of 0.70%. The PVC market fluctuated and rose. The overall PVC market growth slowed down, and the plasticizer DOP market was more favorable.

 

Market review and future expectation

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, this week, DOP raw material octanol price fell, phthalic anhydride price rose, phthalic anhydride market recovered, octanol market fell, DOP cost rose; in the downstream, PVC price growth slowed down, PVC market temporarily stabilized, and DOP downstream demand weakened. In general, DOP industry chain is easy to go down, the rising power of DOP is weakened, the downward pressure is increased, and the overall DOP market is lower.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. At the end of last week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8500 yuan / ton, while that of this weekend was 8133.33 yuan / ton. During the week, the price was reduced by 4.31%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, isopropanol prices fell, affected by the fall in acetone, isopropanol prices fell. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed down on October 20, while the European isopropanol market closed down slightly. So far, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 8200-8300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 8100-8200 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range of 7900-8100 yuan / ton. The quotation of propylene isopropanol is about 8300 yuan / ton.

 

As for raw materials, as of the 22nd, the main offers of acetone in the national mainstream market were 6500-6600 yuan / ton in East China, 6800-6850 yuan / ton in surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong, and 7000 yuan / ton in South China. Most of the factories implement 6700-6800 yuan / ton, of which the price of acetone of Sinopec in North China is 7100 yuan / ton. As of the time of publication, the price plan of Sinopec in North China will be lowered, which is still under approval. It is expected that the short-term acetone market will be weak and stable.

 

As for propylene, as of October 22, the market price of propylene in Shandong remained stable. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, with some enterprises’ prices rising and falling slightly this week. On Friday, only a few enterprises’ prices fell slightly. Most enterprises continued to keep stable. However, the prices fell in a wide range since the weekend, with a drop of about 200 yuan / ton on the 19th, and individual downward movements from the 20th to the 22nd, most of which remained unchanged. The transaction volume is now between 7100 and 7650 The mainstream price is about 7300 yuan / ton. Now the pressure of shipment is slightly increased compared with the previous period. Therefore, it is expected that the price of propylene will continue to stabilize in the near future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business club thinks: the price of raw material acetone drops, and the price of propylene market keeps stable. Cost support is weak; in the international aspect, the price of isopropanol in the United States fell, and the export orders of isopropanol decreased. The domestic market demand is light, and traders mainly wait and see. If the price of acetone still exists or continues to be weak, and there is no support for downstream demand, it is expected that isopropanol will also decline with its storage. Follow up on the change of news coverage.

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According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 21, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton or 2.65% compared with October 1.

 

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New order gradually follow up domestic phosphate rock market stable operation

 

At present, the overall operation of domestic phosphate ore market is stable. While enterprises supply orders from old customers, new orders gradually follow up. The rising market of yellow phosphorus in the downstream has provided stable price support for raw phosphate rock. As of October 21, the current quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is 300-360 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is around 290-340 yuan / ton. Guizhou Qingli group mainly supplies 30% quality phosphate ore The new contract price of 30% phosphate ore raw ore is 300 yuan / ton, and the transaction is close to 285 yuan / ton. In this week’s stable sorting of phosphate ore market in Yunnan, 28% of the raw ore car plate quotation reference is around 280 yuan / ton, 29% of the raw ore car plate quotation reference is around 310 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of downstream, yellow phosphorus, after the double festival, the domestic yellow phosphorus market rose. In recent two days, the market mainstream was stable, the transaction price of sporadic factories increased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. At present, the reference transaction price of Yunnan Net phosphorus factory acceptance was 15600-16200 yuan / ton. The market quotation of phosphoric acid was raised slightly with raw materials.

 

In terms of the industry, the 11 times of China phosphorus exchange auction for phosphate ore, with a total of 135000 tons in 12 bid sections, all of which were successful, including 41000 tons for four bid sections of Erjie branch, 47000 tons for four bid sections of LiuJie branch, and 47000 tons for four bid sections of Shangsuan branch. Among them, the transaction price of 25.91% quality raw ore yard of Erjie branch is 193 yuan / ton, that of 31.81% is 338 yuan / ton, that of 32.09% is 340 yuan / ton, and that of 33.44% is 420 yuan / ton. Among them, the transaction price of 18.23% quality raw ore yard of LiuJie branch is 48 yuan / ton, that of 19.54% is 56 yuan / ton, that of 21.43% is 78 yuan / ton, and that of 22.19% is 98 yuan / ton. The transaction price of 17.00% grade raw ore yard of Shangsuan branch is 44 yuan / ton; the transaction price of 23.90% grade raw ore freight yard is 180 yuan / ton, that of 24.36% grade raw ore yard is 184 yuan / ton, and that of 25.75% grade raw ore yard is 225 yuan / ton.

 

Downstream on demand procurement stable short-term market

 

At present, the phosphorus ore market trading atmosphere is not warm, the new order gradually follow-up, the speed is general. Phosphate rock price upward weakness, so business club phosphate ore analysts believe that the short-term China’s phosphate ore market is mainly stable, some regions or small narrow range adjustment.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4933 yuan / ton on October 12, and 4933 yuan / ton on October 16, respectively. The price market was stable this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Chlorinated paraffin prices are stable this week. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5100 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 4600-4900 yuan / ton, and that in Henan Province is 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4400-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is 4300-4700 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5000 yuan / ton.

 

The price of raw materials is stable this week. The price of raw material liquid wax is stable this week, and it is weak and stable in the short term. Due to the decrease of the supply of raw material liquid chlorine in some regions, the price of liquid chlorine increased, and the market price fluctuated slightly.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The analysis of chlorinated paraffin in Business Club believes that the current market trend of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is relatively stable, the cost support is OK, and there is room for downward adjustment in the later stage. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffin is fair, and the shipment is stable. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

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Trade name: sulfuric acid

 

Latest price (October 19): 397.50 yuan / ton

 

On October 19, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on October 16. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

 

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 400 yuan / ton.

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of light potassium carbonate in China this week is 6187.50 yuan / ton, the current price is up 0.2% month on month, and the current price is down 3.70% compared with last year.

 

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This week, the domestic market of potassium carbonate is stable, the price fluctuation is not big, and the demand side is weak. The downstream factories take more goods on demand, and the inventory is relatively sufficient. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 5950-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different purchasing conditions.

 

This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride sales at the weekend is 2000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Most of the imported potassium sources are concentrated in the hands of large traders, and the low price is hard to find. However, the overall transaction is not positive, the trading atmosphere is cold, and the domestic potassium chloride market is not volatile. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

 

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the import of potash in the domestic potash fertilizer market is at a high level in the near future, the unit operating rate of downstream factories is not high in the near future, and the market volume is weak, showing a slight deadlock. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

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Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated. Analysts believe that the main reasons for the sharp fluctuation of international oil prices are the rebound of multi-national epidemic situation, the end of summer oil peak season and geopolitics. Although hurricane Delta has reduced the offshore crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, it can only support international oil prices in the short term.

 

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International oil prices fell on the 9th. By the end of the day, light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $0.59 to $40.60 a barrel, or 1.43%; London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell $0.49 to $42.85 a barrel, or 1.13%.

 

Bjornar tohyugan, senior vice president and head of the oil market at leista energy, believes that after the hurricane and other influencing factors disappear, oil prices will soon appear a correction. At present, the base of oil price above $40 per barrel is not stable.

 

In the future, investors will focus on the impact of factors such as the development of the epidemic situation, the recovery of crude oil in Libya, whether the production reduction plans of major oil producing countries will be adjusted, and the progress of the new round of negotiations on fiscal stimulus measures in the United States on international oil prices.

 

December gold, the most actively traded gold futures market on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $31.1 to $1926.2 an ounce, or 1.64%, from the previous day. Market participants believe that the decline in the dollar index is the main reason for the rise in gold prices on the day. Howie Lee, an economist at overseas Chinese bank, said the fall in the US dollar and the rise in inflation expectations after the market rekindled hope for a new round of stimulus plan were the factors driving up the gold price. ANZ believes that a large amount of money supply, low interest rates and uncertainty in the macro environment will support gold investment.

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On September 29, the cryolite commodity index was 68.83, flat with yesterday, down 31.99% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), and 3.74% higher than 66.35, the lowest point on September 05, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of domestic cryolite market is stable. The average price of cryolite in Henan is 5666.67 yuan / ton, down 10.29% compared with last year. At present, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 4800-6200 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 5200-6800 yuan / ton. The manufacturers start normal equipment, have sufficient inventory, and the downstream demand is general, so they purchase on demand. The enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude.

 

On the upstream side, the price of fluorite remained stable, with an average price of 2666.67 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The domestic fluorite manufacturers operated normally and the sales situation was general. In the near future, the supply of fluorite in the market was slightly tight, and the fluorite price might rise slightly in the later stage. In terms of downstream aluminum industry, the price of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded and social inventory has moved down, but the phenomenon of market oversupply still exists, and the demand performance is not as expected by the market, and the aluminum industry may be consolidated in the later stage.

 

Cryolite product analysts of business agency believe that: cryolite manufacturers’ devices operate normally, supply is sufficient, manufacturers’ quotation is mainly stable, downstream electrolytic aluminum market consolidation operation, insufficient demand, driving the cryolite market is not big, it is expected that the cryolite market will be weak and stable in the later stage, and the specific attention should be paid to the market demand.

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