1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices were weak in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 58400 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 58000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.68% and a year-on-year increase of 30.34%. On July 27, the bromine commodity index was 203.51, down 0.7 points from yesterday, down 17.00% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 245.40% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices are weak this month. Shandong enterprises currently report about 57500-58000 yuan / ton. The output of bromine enterprises is general, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are in a downturn, with general support for bromine and a heavy game atmosphere. The overall procurement pace is weak.

In terms of raw materials, sulfur prices fell in July as a whole. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 3603.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 940 yuan / ton. The price fell 73.91%, down 42.92% from the same period last year. The downstream demand for sulfur is weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. There is a low-cost source of goods in the market. The downstream purchase is cautious, the shipment situation of enterprises is poor, and the inventory pressure increases. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some price enterprises quote lower on weekends, the price difference in the floor is obvious, and the market mentality is bearish. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate in a weak manner.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices are weak this month, and the output increase is less than expected. The output of seawater bromine is low, and bromine enterprises mostly support the price. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported, and they are resistant to the high price of bromine. Most operators are looking to stabilize the aftermarket, and comprehensively predict that the short-term bromine price will stabilize the mid market and integrate the operation market, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 25, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8266 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1834 yuan / ton, a decrease of 18.15%. Compared with June 25 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10766 yuan / ton), the average price was basically the same as 2500 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since July, the domestic butanone market has operated downward as a whole. At the beginning of July, the domestic butanone market had a short-term strong operation, but it was trapped by the downstream demand side. The butanone market has been declining since the middle and early July, the supply and demand transmission has been blocked, the butanone market lacks strong support, and the market price continues to move closer to the low end. As of July 25, the low-end price of the domestic butanone market was around 8200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of more than 18% compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the butanone floor is still trading, and the downstream wait-and-see mood still exists.

On the upstream side, since July (7.1-7.24), the liquefied gas market in Shandong Province has been running down as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5744 yuan / ton on July 22, a decrease of 2.48% compared with July 1 (5890 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone field is weak in consolidation and operation, and the support of the raw material end is general. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride this week was temporarily stable, with the price of 5283.33 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 24, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 139.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week was slightly stable temporarily: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride over the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5000-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 10125.00 yuan / / ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.25%, an increase of 28.83% over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7300.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7275.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.34%, an increase of 28.08% year-on-year over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. International potash prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

This week (7.18-7.25), the butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose, but the fundamentals are still weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 25, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 13830 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from 13940 yuan / ton last Monday, and the low point in the week was 13790 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is sluggish, early maintenance devices are gradually restarted, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supply is expected to increase, and the market is weak and consolidated; On the one hand, the international crude oil price rebounded over the weekend, on the other hand, the narrow range fluctuation cost of butadiene was supported. The sales companies in Northeast, North and South China of CNPC raised the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber by 200 yuan / ton, driving the market rebound atmosphere.

Recently, the supply side has increased slightly, forming a certain pressure on the Shunding market.

Since July, butadiene market has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost of butadiene rubber has been temporarily stable in the short term. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 25, the price of butadiene was 10260 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from 10292 yuan / ton last Monday.

The natural rubber market rebounded slightly, but the overall level is still low, with little support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 25, the price of natural rubber was 12170 yuan / ton, up 0.89% from 12063 yuan / ton last Monday.

The operation of downstream tires is low, with half steel tires around 65% and all steel tires around 55%. The demand is weak in the face of rubber support, and the market transaction is slightly deadlocked.

Aftermarket forecast: business analysts believe that the fluctuation of international crude oil range, the low price of natural rubber, the increase of supply pressure and the deadlock of market transactions make it difficult to sustain the rebound in the butadiene rubber market. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will continue to decline weakly in the later period.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 3066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 3033.33 yuan / ton, down 1.09% during the week.

This week, the overall performance of the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market was average, and some enterprises slightly reduced the factory price, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market as a whole to continue to be weak and downward. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2800-3200 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated around 3000 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only, and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

As of July 22, the price of domestic soda ash fell by 1.71% in July, the price of domestic sulfur fell sharply by 54.49% in the month, the cost of raw materials fell sharply, and the downstream trade subjects had a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the future, the overall market price of domestic pyrosulfite will continue to be under pressure.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of raw materials continues to decline, and under the pressure of costs, it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be under pressure and weak adjustment in the short term.

In terms of spot goods, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol in East China port market was 2404 yuan / ton on July 21, down 1.07% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, some major production enterprises have device maintenance, and some regions have limited production possibilities. From the demand side, the downstream just needs to purchase.

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation at present

Shanxi region, 2360-2390 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton factory delivery

Fujian, The mainstream negotiation is 2430-2470 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, The negotiation of mainstream enterprises refers to about 2400-2430 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The negotiation of mainstream enterprises is about 2370-2500 yuan / ton

Henan Province, The shipping price of some enterprises is 2530 yuan / ton

In terms of futures, methanol fell in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Ma2209 contract opened at 2442 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2470 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2406 yuan / ton. It closed at 2411 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 24 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract Holdings were 1.1044 million hands, a decrease of 12100 hands from the previous trading day.

In terms of external market, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 360.00-361.00 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollar / ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, up 11.5 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, up 3 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 360.00-361.00 USD / ton, 1 USD / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, 11.5 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, 3 euros / ton

The high-level fluctuation in the crude oil market and the pull of device maintenance are difficult to match the demand side, and the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by consolidation.

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak, some devices were restarted, the overall supply increased, and the supply side support weakened. At the same time, terminal demand continued to languish, dragging down the downstream market in many industries.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from July 8 to 15, the domestic BDO market price fell from 18280 yuan / ton to 16680 yuan / ton. The price fell by 8.75% in the week, 25.87% month on month, and 13.46% year-on-year. In terms of market price, 15300-15700 yuan / ton was negotiated by the mainstream of spot bulk water in East China; Barrel negotiation 17000-18000 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 15500-15800 yuan / ton; Barrel negotiation 17000-18000 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw material calcium carbide: the supply of calcium carbide has decreased, but the downstream fatigue is difficult to support the sharp rebound of calcium carbide. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, and the overall operation is still finishing.

Comparison chart of carbide (upstream raw material) -bdo price trend of business agency:

In terms of methanol, the production cost of methanol is supported to a certain extent. Methanol supply is expected to increase, demand is weakened, and the short-term domestic methanol market is weak and declining. BDO cost side support continued to be weak.

In terms of downstream products, the operating rate of PBT industry is general, and it just needs to be followed up; The market of gbl-nmp industrial chain fell, mainly contract procurement; The load of the main devices of downstream TPU and Pu slurry is around 50-60%, and it is mainly purchased with small orders just needed; The start-up of PBAT industry fell to 10%, and the production was slow under the cost of new capacity and sales pressure.

BDO supply will continue to increase, while some major downstream factories are expected to reduce their burdens or overhaul. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 5366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5283.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.55%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 17, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 139.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5250 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with the price of 10125.00 yuan / ton, up 35.91% year-on-year over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7537.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7300.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.15%, an increase of 33.21% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. International potash prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

The spot tin market price (7.8-7.15) fell after the market shock this week. The average price in the domestic market was 192110 yuan / ton last weekend and 189810 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.2% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week of 2022 (7.11-7.15), there is a total of one commodity rising in the non-ferrous sector, and the rising commodity is metallic silicon (2.43%). A total of 20 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 6 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were nickel (-8.74%), zinc (-6.02%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-5.94%). The average rise and fall this week was -2.84%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 181500 yuan / ton- 1780 yuan / ton, three thousand eight hundred and eighty-three

London tin, 24775 dollars / ton- 345 dollars / ton, three thousand five hundred and fifty

This week, the futures market fell as a whole. Except for the sharp rise in the price on the 12th, it was in a downward trend as a whole. On the night of the 11th, the dollar rose sharply, crude oil prices fell significantly, and the overall performance of the metal market was mixed, with Lun Xi leading the rise of 2%, and Shanghai Xi’an rising more than 3%. In the morning trading on the 12th, Shanghai tin continued its upward trend at night and continued to lead the metal market. As of the closing of the 12th, the Shanghai tin 2208 contract closed up 2.45%, and the spot market rose by 8000-10000 yuan / ton on the same day. After the sharp rise, Shanghai tin fell for two consecutive days, creating an inverted “V” trend for Shanghai tin this week. In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. The downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the start-up of tin solder enterprises is generally low. In the near future, the trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that the trend of tin price will remain wide and volatile.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic market of PA6 fluctuated this week, and the spot prices of some brands fell after rising. As of July 15, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 15533.33 yuan / ton, up or down -0.43% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam fluctuated narrowly this week. Raw material pure benzene continued to decline, international crude oil fell sharply, and external news support was weak. Moreover, the domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and the supply increases. Downstream products have poor profits, bargain hunting in demand, digestion of some low-end supply, which has a certain supporting effect on the spot price. It is expected that in the short term, the caprolactam market will still be reduced by a narrow margin.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is general, and the cost side support of PA6 is still weak this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant has limited changes, which is generally stable at 70%, and it is running sideways this week. In terms of news, the international crude oil was affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other factors in the early stage, and the decline in price volatility intensified, and the near and far cost side support of PA6 weakened. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of polymerization enterprises is poor. The load of downstream enterprises was reduced by a narrow margin, but it was heard that inventories were overstocked. In the middle of the week, enterprises prepared goods to hold up the spot price, which fell back over the weekend. The purchaser is still cautious in taking goods, and small order purchase just needs to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated this week, caprolactam fell narrowly, and the cost support of PA6 remained weak. Downstream enterprises just need to maintain production when taking goods, and the on-site operation is biased towards bargain hunting. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of PA6 market may operate in a narrow range in the long short game.

This week (July 1 to July 8), the market price of electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable. The spot market price in East China was 16650 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 16650 yuan / ton at the end of this week, flat.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market maintained a slight decline, the futures market continued to fluctuate, and the overall price difference of superimposed steel bidding was too large. Although the manganese ore price continued to callback, the overall range has not been amplified. As of July 8, Tianjin Hong Kong Macao block was 58 yuan / ton degree, Gabon was 56.5 yuan / ton degree, 0.5 yuan / ton degree, and South Africa Semi carbonate was 39 yuan / ton degree.

The electrolytic manganese market operated weakly and stably this week. In terms of ex factory price, the mainstream ex factory tax price in the southern regions around Hunan and Guangxi was 14900-15100 yuan / ton, while the large northern manufacturers had not made a quotation recently. The domestic mainstream market price is around 15000-15200 yuan / ton, and the overall market performance is still weak. There is no market with price. In terms of demand, the progress of steel bidding in July is slow. The downstream stainless steel enterprises have reduced production recently, and the demand for manganese has declined to a certain extent, which is difficult to support the price of electrolytic manganese. Although the electrolytic manganese manufacturers have a collective production reduction plan recently, it has not been implemented as a whole. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the game mentality of both parties is strong. It is expected that the market price will be stable and weak in the short term.

Manganese and manganese: domestic silicon and manganese consolidation is weak. This week, the futures disk is affected by the weakness of black, and it is difficult to sell at a high price on the spot side, and it is difficult to conclude a deal according to the manufacturer’s 8000 yuan / ton cash ex factory quotation. Because some traders hold certain low-cost purchasing resources on the disk, it has a great impact on retail. According to the price monitoring of business society, the mainstream quotation of silicon and manganese in Ningxia region (specification: femn68si18) on July 8 was around 7750 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 7720 yuan / ton, It fell 2.03% from Monday.

Steel plant bidding: on July 8, Baosteel opened a new round of electrolytic manganese bidding, with a bidding quantity of 700 tons.

On July 8, the bidding price of Hegang group in July: C2.0 medium carbon ferromanganese 9800 fell by 900, the quantity was 2560 tons, and c0.7 low carbon ferromanganese 11000 fell by 1000, the quantity was 1026 tons.

On July 8, silicon manganese bidding of Hegang group in July: 7950 yuan / ton of factory acceptance including tax, and an increase of 50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, with a quantity of 22800 tons.

On July 1, Hebei Iron and Steel Group launched the bidding activity for electrolytic manganese in July, with a total bidding volume of 1300 tons, 400 tons less than that in June. The bidding deadline is 10:00 on July 4.

On July 7, Ma’anshan Iron and steel plant announced the steel bidding in July: the bidding quantity of electrolytic manganese is 300 tons, the bidding price is 15780 yuan / ton, and the delivery deadline is July 31.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to weakness, and Shandong civil gas market fluctuated and fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5910.00 yuan / ton on July 5 and 5846.00 yuan / ton on July 12, with a decrease of 1.08% during the week and an increase of 33.37% over the same period last year.

As of July 12, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

North China, 5800-5900 yuan / ton

South China, 5650-58000 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5750-6000 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 5800-5950 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to weakness, the market was good and the support was insufficient, and the Shandong civil gas market fell violently. During the week, the international crude oil price fell first and then rose, and the cost side brought Limited benefits to the market. At present, affected by the traditional off-season sales, the terminal demand continues to be weak, the downstream mentality is more cautious, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. In addition, the supply of Shandong market is relatively sufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand in the region is difficult to change, and the price is weak.

The recent weakness of LPG futures market has brought insufficient support to the spot market. On July 12, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2208 was 5388, the highest price was 5525, the lowest price was 5333, the closing price was 5457, the previous settlement price was 5478, the settlement price was 5453, down 21, the trading volume was 166451, the position was 53967, and the daily position was increased by 575. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Recently, the international crude oil price and futures market are both weak, which has brought Limited benefits to the market. In addition, the current seasonal impact is more obvious, the terminal consumption is slow, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high. Shandong’s market supply has not changed much, which is relatively abundant, and the contradiction between market supply and demand still exists. It is expected that the market price of civil gas in Shandong will continue to be weak in the short term, mainly continuing to decline.

Cobalt prices fell in a volatile manner this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week. As of July 11, the cobalt price was 361200 yuan / ton, down 4.01% from 376300 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. Mobile phone sales fell sharply, cobalt market demand fell, cobalt market fell.

New energy vehicle sales pick up

The data released by the China Automobile Association on the economic operation of the automobile industry in June 2022 showed that in June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 590000 and 596000 respectively, an increase of 1.3 times year-on-year. From January to June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.661 million and 2.6 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a new high, and the demand of cobalt market rose.

Cobalt supply decreases

According to the latest data from the customs website, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials in May 2022 was 7100 tons of metal tons, down 4% month on month and 1% year on year. From January to may 2022, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 38800 tons of metal tons. In the first half of 22, the resumption of production of mutanda was not as fast as expected. Glencore reduced the annual guidance output of 3000 tons under the condition that the Q1 cobalt output increased by 43% year-on-year. In the middle of April, Durban, South Africa, suffered from floods, and the shipment of cobalt raw materials was affected. The shipment was resumed only in the middle of May. The arrival volume of intermediate products fell sharply in May, resulting in a decline in the arrival volume of intermediate products from late May to early June. The supply of cobalt fell, and the supply shortage of cobalt remained.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles are rising, the demand of cobalt market is picking up, the supply shortage of cobalt market remains, the downward pressure of cobalt price is weakened, and the upward momentum is increased. Cobalt prices stabilized this week, and the momentum for cobalt prices to rise in the future is large.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the PC market continued to decline last week, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of July 11, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 16400 yuan / ton, up or down -7.34% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the bisphenol a market fell below the new low in two years last week, and there was little demand on the floor. The industry chain is difficult to be positive, the terminal support is difficult, and the demand is weak. The industry’s profit performance is poor, coupled with the decline of international crude oil and phenol ketones, the upstream of the far and near end continues to decline, and the external market environment is in a depressed state. The business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

Last week, the upstream bisphenol a market continued to decline, falling below the 12000 yuan / ton mark, seriously weakening the PC cost side support. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises has continued to rise recently, and the load of some production lines has increased after maintenance. Industry inventory is high, and the pressure on PC supply side is even worse. The international crude oil in the far upstream also fell sharply due to the influence of the Federal Reserve and other reasons. The downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited by many factors, resulting in poor delivery. Although the floor has entered the trading mode of price for volume, it is currently in the off-season, with cold market transactions and lack of bottom support. Buyers’ mentality of buying up rather than buying down spread, businesses’ confidence was not strong, and the offer made a substantial profit.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that: last week, the domestic PC market continued to fall, the upstream bisphenol a market fell deeply, and the cost side weakened the effect of PC support. In terms of supply, there are abundant goods on site, high inventory and light demand. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

In July, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, acetic acid fell by 5.15% this week (7.4-8). Mainly affected by the increase in supply and the slowdown in demand, the Celanese unit resumed production, with Sinopec Great Wall resuming operation, the factory accumulated significantly, and the market supply surged. While the supply pressure increases, the overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the resistance of downstream factories to the current high price of acetic acid is increasing, affecting the willingness to purchase. So the callback period has not yet ended. At the weekend, the price of acetic acid is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate range fluctuated, the inertia fell at the beginning of the week, gradually stopped falling from the middle of the week to the weekend, and some rebounded. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 1.52%. At present, ethyl acetate is still affected by the negative impact of raw acetic acid. However, the transaction of Shandong big factory is in good condition, and the psychology of low price bottom hunting in the downstream leads to a slight premium. So the price of ethyl acetate rebounded slightly over the weekend, but from the terminal point of view, the order in July was still insufficient and the demand was relatively weak, which was still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (7.4-8), the domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak and volatile, and the price fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 2.75%. On the one hand, the cost is bad, and the dual raw materials are lower. Compared with acetic acid, the decline of downstream butyl ester was relatively small, and the performance was relatively resistant to decline. The main reason was that the market supply remained within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the device was low, and remained below 40% in the first week of July. There is not much pressure on supply. Butyl acetate remained weak due to the relatively weak downstream demand. In addition, the price of raw material n-butanol was still low. According to monitoring, n-butanol fell by 19.73% in June. The rise and fall in the first week of July was 0. Superimposed on the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 9300-9600 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that in early July, the acetic acid industrial chain was relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid was still obvious, which had a great impact on the whole industrial chain. Downstream ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products all fell to varying degrees, but it was significantly weaker than acetic acid, indicating that downstream profits were still in a comfortable range.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the short term, the performance of the acetic acid industry chain is low, and the upstream costs are bad, which also eases the cost pressure on the downstream. Recently, acetic acid is still affected by the resumption of the plant, and loose supply will put pressure on the price. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester still have negative cost side. Considering the light downstream demand, the order performance in July was insufficient. It is expected that ethyl ester and butyl ester may still operate at a low level.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9975 yuan / ton on June 30, down 3.86% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of the operating rate, the overall operating rate of the carbon black market has been maintained at about 66% recently, and the logistics and transportation across the country are gradually smooth without other obstacles, which has improved the operation of carbon black manufacturers. However, due to weak downstream demand and limited enthusiasm for carbon black procurement, it is difficult for carbon black manufacturers to ship, and some manufacturers’ inventories are gradually high.

On the cost side, the auction price of raw coal tar has generally risen, causing further pressure on the cost of carbon black manufacturers. At present, the coke enterprises are operating stably, and the supply of coal tar in the market has not changed significantly, but the performance of downstream products continues to be poor.

On the demand side, the downstream tires in the domestic carbon black market operate at low load, the finished products of tire enterprises in the main market are shipped slowly, and the downstream performance of the tire market continues to be depressed. The inventory of tire enterprises is high, and the traditional off-season is coming. There is little bargaining on new orders in the venue, resulting in carbon black having no say in pricing. For tire factories, they can only implement the policy of shipping first and then pricing. Under the circumstances of high tire inventory and poor expectation of future market demand, some tire manufacturers continue to control production and reduce inventory.

On the whole, at present, the cost of carbon black in China has fallen, the demand for negative factors in the carbon black market is low, and the price of carbon black has shown a downward trend with the increase of inventory.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China was 11190 yuan / ton on June 24, and 10770 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China fell 3.75% this week.

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China was 10750 yuan / ton on June 24, and 10733 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China fell by 0.16% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the cost support was insufficient. The trading of phosphoric acid on the floor is weak and the market is poor. The downstream purchases on demand, and the demand side waits for release. As of June 30, the price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid was about 10770 yuan / ton, and the price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid was about 10733 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 10300-10650 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10250-10400 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 10300 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 11000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this week. The domestic market reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1066 yuan / ton, and the market reference price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 950 yuan / ton. Large mining enterprises in some parts of China have suspended foreign supply, focusing on their own use. The spot circulation in the phosphorus ore market is insufficient. Under the two-way support of supply and demand, the focus of the phosphorus ore market is constantly moving upward.

The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, the quotation of yellow phosphorus market is chaotic and the transaction situation is poor. Downstream and traders, mainly wait-and-see, purchase cautiously, and buy more at lower prices. The mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan / ton, Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan / ton, and Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 39000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the business society, the cost pressure has weakened due to the reduction in the price of yellow phosphorus, the raw material. Floor trading decreased, terminal demand was not followed up, and the phosphoric acid market continued to decline. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will continue to decline in the short term.

In June 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market fluctuated. The average price of the domestic market was 15105 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15150 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.3%.

On June 29, the lead commodity index was 91.96, down 0.09 points from yesterday, down 31.38% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.22% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Lead futures market in June 2022

varieties., Closing price on the 2nd, Closing price on the 24th, 2-day inventory, 24 day inventory

Shanghai lead, 14935 yuan / ton, 14890 yuan / ton, 87235 tons, 76413 tons

London lead, 2142 dollars / ton, 1939.5 dollars / ton, 38850 tons, 39600 tons

In June 2022, the lead price trend fluctuated widely. Although the monthly fluctuation was small, the overall trend fluctuated and fluctuated. It fluctuated many times during the month, with a fluctuation range of about 1.5%. Because the lead market is in a seasonal off-season recently, the trend basically follows the futures market. This month, the macro side is mixed with bad and good. Most of the trends of the non-ferrous market are ups and downs. Because the supply-demand relationship of lead itself is relatively less affected, but the overall trend is also UPS and downs.

In the domestic market, the downstream battery is still in the seasonal off-season recently. Affected by the insufficient supply at the mine end, the smelter has reduced production significantly this month. The market is expected to tighten the supply, and the social inventory is currently at a low level. The tightening of supply has boosted the lead price. Recently, there are many macro news, and the non-ferrous market is obviously disturbed. Most of the prices fluctuate with the futures market, and the lead price fluctuates less compared with other varieties. The downstream is still in the off-season. The inventory of battery enterprises in the factory is high, the sales situation is general, and the demand for raw lead ingots is general. Under the background of the off-season, the market demand for lead ingots is weak, and the recent market fluctuations mainly follow the trend of futures. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range shock trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

DOTP prices plummeted in June

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP plummeted in June. As of June 30, the price of DOTP was 9850 yuan / ton, down 18.76% from 12125 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of the off-season, the cost of raw materials fell sharply in June, and the DOTP market fell sharply.

The price of isooctanol plummeted in June

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell sharply in June. As of June 30, the isooctanol price was 9100 yuan / ton, down 26.81% from 12433.33 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. When the off-season came, the price of isooctanol plummeted in June, the cost of DOTP fell, and the downward pressure on the DOTP market increased.

PTA prices rose first and then fell in June

According to the price monitoring of business agency, PTA prices rose first and then fell in June. PTA prices rose with the fluctuation of crude oil prices in the first ten days of June, and the high crude oil prices fell in the middle and late ten days of June, and PTA prices followed the decline. As of June 30, PTA price was 6724 yuan / ton, down 1.78% from the PTA price of 6846 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. PTA prices fell, the cost of DOTP fell, the positive momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price fell in June, PTA prices fell violently, isooctanol prices fell sharply in the off-season demand, DOTP costs fell, DOTP’s upward momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased. In the future, the decline in the cost of DOTP raw materials accumulated in the off-season of the market, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will plummet in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 1, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, which was 566 yuan / ton lower than that on June 26 (the reference price of n-butanol was 8566 yuan / ton), a decrease of 6.61%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (6.27-7.1), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a decline as a whole. The on-site operating rate of n-butanol has increased compared with that in the early stage. After the equipment maintenance and repair in the early stage were resumed successively, the on-site supply of n-butanol increased. However, the downstream demand side improved generally and the effective support was insufficient. From June 27 at the beginning of this week, the off-site price of n-butanol was continuously reduced by the n-butanol factory by about 400-600 yuan / ton. As of July 1 this weekend, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7950-8100 yuan / ton, The decline in the week exceeded 6%. At present, the downstream bargain hunting of n-butanol just needs replenishment, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is peaceful.

In terms of upstream propylene, the price chart of business society shows that in early June, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and the price fell below 8000 yuan. It is reported. Due to the production of new units and the resumption of overhaul units, the supply of propylene has increased, market competition has intensified, and enterprises are forced by sales pressure to give up profits and goods, and some process routes are even in a state of loss. Downstream market demand is dominated by rigid demand, fast in and fast out, and the overall market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand. In the middle of the month, the price began to stabilize and rebound, but the contradiction between supply and demand gradually appeared. The pressure of manufacturers to deliver goods increased, and the demand followed up slowly. In particular, the cost pressure on polypropylene remained unchanged, the demand was flat, and the commencement was limited. At the same time, other downstream products of propylene performed generally. The price continued to decline at the beginning of late June, the overall commencement of the industry was high, and the supply pressure remained.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong tends to be flat, and the low-end price transactions on the floor have improved. The n-butanol datagrapher of business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market situation in Shandong is relatively stable, mainly finishing and running, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 30 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, in June, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was stable at about 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell in June. As of the 30th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10860 yuan / ton, down 5.24% from the beginning of the month. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose, and the market offer is gradually lowered; It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate and fall in the later period.

Upstream raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business news agency, as of June 29, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 13933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.35% compared with that on June 1, and down 8.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the cost support is limited, and some devices on the supply side are overhauled, but the downstream buying enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be deadlocked in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the LNG market was in the off-season in June, and the demand support was weak. The domestic LNG price continued to decline, falling by 10.56% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the decline of LNG in the first half of the month was 3.05%, and that in the second half of the month was 7.86%. Many liquid factories reduced prices and arranged warehouses, and liquid prices fell centrally. Near the end of the month, liquid prices in some regions rebounded slightly. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will be consolidated in the short term.

Future forecast: in June, the raw material cost continued to weaken, the downstream demand was flat, the market spot inventory was sufficient, and the transaction was average. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustments.