According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market experienced a unilateral decline in December. From December 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5450 yuan/ton to 5162 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.28% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 23.32%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a weak decline, with some areas affected by the previous snowfall, resulting in logistics disruptions and pressure on shipments. In addition, there was ample supply of spot goods, leading to significant pressure on enterprises to reduce inventory. At the same time, demand side support was poor, with rigid demand procurement being the main factor, resulting in a decrease in ethanol prices. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market remained sluggish and lacked positive news support, leading to continued weak downstream demand. Holders of goods are experiencing slow shipments, resulting in overall high pressure on shipments. Manufacturers are under pressure to sell at a discount, causing ethanol prices to fluctuate and fall. At the end of the month, the price of ethanol in the domestic market fell significantly, and the supply was relatively high. Downstream gas purchases were mediocre, and prices from manufacturers kept falling.

On the cost side, the market price of raw material corn is weak and falling, and the inventory of southern ports is rising. There is a lot of storage pressure, and the ports are still receiving goods one after another. Traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, maintaining high quotes and low prices, and there is a lot of bargaining space. Recently, downstream procurement enthusiasm has been low, port transactions have been limited, and the rise in futures prices has been weak. Traders have generally lowered their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate is rumored to be operating at a high level. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future market forecast shows that the spot supply is abundant, the terminal Baijiu consumption has little change, and the demand side support is limited. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated in December, with a slight overall increase. On December 1st, the market price of aniline was 9337 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, the price was 9375 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.4% and a decrease of 12.89% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market in December was dominated by supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material pure benzene increased, and the profit of aniline narrowed. Under cost pressure, aniline slightly rose, and downstream acceptance was average. Subsequently, the market digested the increase, and the price remained stable. At the end of the month, the company’s stock flow was average, and inventory pressure increased. At the same time, the price of pure benzene fell, and the price of aniline began to decline. The price fell to a low level, downstream entered the market at a low price, and after the release of upstream inventory, the price slightly increased.

Pure benzene: In December, the pure benzene market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, downstream buying increased, and the price of pure benzene rose. Subsequently, there was a high-level consolidation and operation, while downstream prices of pure benzene saw a slight decline due to high raw material prices, tightened profits, and weak purchasing intentions. On December 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7338 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, the average price of pure benzene was 7513 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.37% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current favorable support for the aniline market is insufficient, and the raw material pure benzene is showing a weak trend. At the same time, the downstream is in a stalemate and waiting, and inventory is accumulating on the market. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased recently, with a 50 yuan/ton increase on Thursday and a 100 yuan/ton increase on Friday. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline in East China has risen to 9150 yuan/ton, with acceptance of 9250 yuan/ton. It is reported that the price of aniline has fallen to a low level, and downstream companies have entered the market at a low price, resulting in improved purchasing power and reduced inventory. In addition, with cost support, aniline factories have actively pushed up prices. With the rise in prices, downstream market entry is cautious, and it is expected that the market will consolidate and operate after the rise of aniline in the short term.

In the off-season of December demand, the market price of epoxy propane hit bottom. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8370 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.85% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: In December, most factories plan to resume production of maintenance equipment. At present, there is insufficient price support on the supply side.

Raw material side: The rise and fall of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side varies. At present, the factory price of mainstream liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province is 150-200 yuan/ton. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6895.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand side is relatively cold, with insufficient follow-up on procurement, cold actual market transactions, and mainly focused on first-time purchases, adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Overall, during the off-season of market demand, the demand for epichlorohydrin is relatively weak.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that due to the impact of the off-season, downstream demand side parking and maintenance, weakened procurement volume, and the gradual closure of enterprises towards the end of the year, it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.77% during the period, a month on month increase of 4.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise. The main regional equipment in the Middle East has changed, and the expected reduction in methanol import volume is expected. Port methanol inventory is gradually entering the channel of destocking, and the market is dominated by a bullish mentality.

As of the close on December 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2629 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2637 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2605 yuan/ton. It closed at 2610 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 9% or 0.34% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 499967 lots, with a holding volume of 674811 lots and a daily increase of 10634 lots.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. With the continuous decline in quotes from Beigang, market pessimism is spreading, and there is a lack of motivation to transport goods from production areas. At present, the overall market supply exceeds demand, the willingness of terminal procurement is low, and the support for coal prices is insufficient. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: there may be an increase in demand for acetic acid methanol; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: The expected shutdown of a dimethyl ether unit has reduced the demand for methanol; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 12th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 124.00-125.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 433.00-434.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, factory supply may decrease, and under low inventory, enterprises will mainly sell at high prices; In terms of ports, due to changes in equipment in the main regions of the Middle East, the mentality is relatively strong, and inventory may continue to be depleted. Downstream demand is expected to maintain incremental growth. Methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the domestic adipic acid market has been continuously rising since December, with an overall increase. On December 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 6th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.41%.

Cost increases, domestic adipic acid market continues to rise

At the beginning of December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise. Mainly due to the rising prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, the cost has increased, and the demand for purchasing adipic acid from end-users has increased. With the strong bullish sentiment of adipic acid manufacturers and multiple bullish factors supporting it, the adipic acid market continues to rise, with prices rising. The mainstream market price is 8500-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is recovering.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of adipic acid is still loose, and in the short term, there is insufficient momentum for the sustained rise of the adipic acid market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall TDI market in China was weak in November, with a gradual decline. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12950 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the TDI price was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%.

The performance of the domestic TDI market in November was average, continuing to be weak, and the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Except for a few devices that experienced short-term shutdowns and unstable operation during the month, the overall operation of other devices was stable, with limited supply side benefits. Downstream demand has not improved, with rigid demand as the main factor and insufficient purchasing power. Under the game of supply and demand, the focus of TDI transactions continues to shift downwards.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated and fell. As of November 28th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 5723 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.35% from the price of 5860 yuan/ton on November 1st. The supply and demand of toluene in the month are weak, and the demand in the chemical industry in Shandong is still acceptable. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high, and the overall downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand. The inventory in southern China is high, and refineries are actively shipping. At the end of the month, the futures market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the price of toluene has rebounded slightly.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is a strong willingness to raise prices in the upstream market, and the low-end prices of TDI are tightening. The atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet, and the factory settlement price at the end of the month is about to be released. We are waiting for the news to land and expect the TDI market to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1556 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.77%. On November 29th, the light soda ash commodity index was 79.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 26.35% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak this month. The utilization rate of on-site soda ash production capacity is relatively high, and the market supply is sufficient. Although glass prices are running strongly, the benefits for soda ash are not obvious. Downstream purchasing is limited, and market trading is still weak. The situation of on-site supply exceeding demand is obvious, and the soda ash market continues to be weak.

As of November 29, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in the East China region is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in Central China is around 1380-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in North China is around 1600-1630 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of glass this month first increased and then decreased. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.95 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.57%. The glass spot market is fluctuating at a high level, and downstream market entry follows demand. The trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable, and the glass market is relatively strong and operating steadily.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of soda ash and glass commodities on November 29th was 81.77, up 1 point from yesterday, down 27.23% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and up 7.24% from the lowest point of 76.25 points on November 17, 2024. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has remained stable in the near future, while the downstream glass market price has fallen. However, there is insufficient support for soda ash, and the utilization rate of supply side soda ash production capacity has increased. Sales pressure still exists for enterprises, and the mentality of operators is wait-and-see. It is expected that the price of soda ash will run weakly in the future, depending on downstream market demand.