Aluminum fluoride market rose

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride was rising in August, and the market of aluminum fluoride rose sharply. As of August 30, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8966.67 yuan / ton, up 5.49% from 8500.00 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. Aluminum ingot prices hit new highs, driving the rise of aluminum fluoride Market.

Aluminum ingot prices hit a new high

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on August 29 was 115.43, the same as yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, an increase of 112.89% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). In August, the price of aluminum ingots continued to rise. On the 30th, the price of aluminum ingots reached a new high. In August, the price of aluminum ingots increased by 6%. The price of aluminum ingots reached new highs repeatedly. The aluminum ingot market continued to be high. The high price of aluminum ingots led to the rise of aluminum fluoride Market. The price of aluminum fluoride has increased.

The raw material market maintained an upward trend

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly in August, and the hydrofluoric acid market maintained an upward trend. In August, hydrofluoric acid increased by 1.3%; The price of fluorite has recovered slightly, and there is a certain room for rise in the future market of fluorite; The price of sulfuric acid rose by 11% in August. The overall raw material market showed strong performance, and the momentum for future rise was sufficient, which was more favorable to aluminum fluoride, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increased steadily.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that in August, hydrofluoric acid in aluminum fluoride raw material market increased slightly, fluorite increased steadily, sulfuric acid increased sharply, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increased; The price of aluminum ingots in the downstream reaches has repeatedly reached new highs, and the aluminum fluoride industry chain has operated strongly. Generally speaking, the upstream and downstream market of aluminum fluoride industry chain operates strongly, which stimulates the rise of aluminum fluoride price. It is expected that the aluminum fluoride market will rise strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the market price in Shandong was 650 yuan / ton, an increase of 36.84% over the same period last year. On August 26, the caustic soda commodity index was 93.53, the same as yesterday, down 54.79% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and up 43.65% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda price consolidation operation this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted and put into operation. Now the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 620-720 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is mainly on-demand procurement, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. Now caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions, and it is comprehensively expected that caustic soda will mainly operate temporarily and stably in the follow-up. The price of caustic soda in Hebei fluctuates slightly. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 650-780 yuan / ton. It is expected that the subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda will be the main.

Upstream liquid chlorine this week, the domestic liquid chlorine market rose and fell, North China rose first and then fell, the demand weakened, the market transaction was light, and there is expected to be some room for decline in the later stage. Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises mainly purchase caustic soda on demand, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is stable. In addition, the downstream has a mentality of resistance to high price caustic soda, and the two sides launch a price game.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), there are 4 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: calcium carbide (2.24%), light soda ash (1.71%), PVC (0.41%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.95%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has maintained stable operation, while the downstream alumina is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the follow-up consolidation and operation of caustic soda will mainly depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated. The market price in Shandong was 647.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 650 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price increased by 0.39% and 36.84% compared with the same period last year. On August 19, the caustic soda commodity index was 93.53, up 0.36 points from yesterday, down 54.79% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and up 43.65% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda price consolidation operation this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted and put into operation. Now the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 620-720 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is mainly on-demand procurement, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. Now caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions, and it is comprehensively expected that caustic soda will mainly operate temporarily and stably in the follow-up. The price of caustic soda in Hebei fluctuates slightly. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 650-780 yuan / ton. It is expected that the subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda will be the main.

Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises mainly purchase caustic soda on demand, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is stable. In addition, the downstream has a mentality of resistance to high price caustic soda, and the two sides launch a price game.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 32nd week (8.9-8.13) of 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 3 kinds of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were: light soda ash (2.34%), PVC (1.23%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.71%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has maintained stable operation, while the downstream alumina is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the follow-up consolidation and operation of caustic soda will mainly depend on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 20, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 16825 yuan / ton, down 1.17% compared with Monday’s price, down 8.93% compared with July 20 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 18475 yuan / ton), and up 27.46% compared with the same period last year.

The propylene oxide Market showed a downward trend as a whole this week. At the beginning of the week, the inventory pressure of propylene oxide plant was controllable, the mentality of supporting the market was still in place, the downstream follow-up was general, the market waited and waited, and the price was temporarily stable. With the continuous downturn of new downstream polyether orders, the purchase price of propylene oxide was reduced, the supply-demand game weakened, the market decreased slightly, and the market wait-and-see mood was strong. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 16300-16500 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 19, the reference price of propylene was 7759.45, an increase of 0.74% compared with Monday’s price. At present, the market price is mainly stable and the market trading atmosphere is general.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 19, the reference price of propylene glycol was 17366.67, down 0.57% compared with the price on Monday; For the downstream soft foam polyether, on August 20, the market situation of soft foam polyether in Shandong was weak, the shipment of enterprises was under pressure, and the atmosphere of inquiry and transaction was light. At present, the mainstream quotation of ordinary soft foam polyether in Shandong market is around 16100-16600 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that, in a comprehensive view, the current price of raw propylene is mainly stable, the impact on the cost side is small, the pressure on the supply side is still controllable, the demand side is weak, and the wait-and-see mood in the middle and lower reaches is aggravated. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be weak in the short term, and the specific trend is more. We still need to pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the trend of mixed xylene was stable in the first half of this week, and the price fell near the weekend. On August 15, the price of mixed xylene was 5850 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 22), the price was 5750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 1.71% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.89%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fell continuously, with a decline of more than 5% in the week, and the external market also fell continuously. The cost support weakened significantly, coupled with the continued weakness of downstream demand, the bearish sentiment in the mixed xylene market was strong, and the price fell during the week.

In terms of external market, as of August 20, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $766.5/t, down US $52 / T or 6.35% month on month on August 13; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $781.5/t, down US $56.5/t or 6.74% month on month on August 13.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has led to a bearish market on the demand recovery process. In addition, official data show that the oil refining output and economic activity of major emerging market countries have slowed down, the market pessimism has increased, and the international oil price has continued to decline this week. On August 13, Brent fell $5.41 / barrel, or 7.66%; WTI fell $6.12/barrel, or 8.94%.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX trend was stable this week, with the price of 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% over the same period last year. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil continued to decline, and the external price of PX declined. As of August 20, the closing price of PX in Asia was stable this week, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% over the same period last year. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil continued to decline, and the trend of PX external price declined. As of August 20, the closing prices in Asia were US $857-859 / T FOB Korea and US $865-867 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China fell broadly this week. On Friday (August 20), the price was 5002.73 yuan / ton, down 6.16% from last week and up 39.26% from the same period last year. Some PTA units were restarted and the supply increased slightly. At the same time, the production reduction and shutdown plans of downstream polyester units increased recently, the demand for PTA weakened and the destocking speed slowed down.

In the ox market, the price of orthobenzene was stable this week, and the market of orthobenzene was temporarily stable. On Friday (August 13), the price of ox in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, up 43.18% year-on-year. The upstream and downstream of the o-benzene industrial chain operated smoothly, the rising power of o-benzene was insufficient, the falling pressure was weak, and the o-benzene market was stable.

3、 Future forecast

With the spread of delta virus, the market is more worried about limited demand, and the international oil price may still fall. Continue to pay attention to OPEC + production increase, U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory data, global stock market and economic data, the latest epidemic situation and geographical situation.

The weak demand side is difficult to change, and the short-term trend of mixed xylene continues to be affected by crude oil. Overall, mixed xylene may still decline, but the decline is limited. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.

1、 Price data

As of August 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6794.60 yuan / ton, down 1.58% from 6904.00 yuan / ton on August 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6700-6900 yuan / ton.

As of August 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 6660.00 yuan / ton, down 0.78% from 6712.50 yuan / ton on August 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 6500-6700 yuan / ton.

On August 22, the naphtha commodity index was 83.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.28% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 98.53% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to fall, the refined naphtha market was weak, and the downstream was mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: international crude oil fell sharply, mainly due to the Fed’s expectation of tightening monetary policy, which led to the continuous appreciation of the US dollar and lowered the valuation of oil prices. What is more important is the joint effect of the dual pressure of increasing production in oil producing countries and cooling demand under the influence of the epidemic.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell continuously this week. The price of toluene was 5772.2 yuan / ton on August 15 and 5682 yuan / ton on August 22, down 15.6% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On August 15, the price of mixed xylene was 5850 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the price was 5750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.71%. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 7300 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (5.41%), coke (4.23%) and liquefied natural gas (3.68%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 2 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were WTI crude oil (- 7.22%), Brent crude oil (- 5.86%) and liquefied gas (- 3.18%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent sharp decline in international crude oil, the weak operation of local refined naphtha market, less market trading, downstream on-demand procurement, strong market wait-and-see mood, and it is expected that the weak consolidation of local refined naphtha in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7703 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7748 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.6%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, propylene prices rose slightly this week. The mainstream price in Shandong market was 7700-7750 yuan / ton, which changed little compared with last week. Due to the continuous decline of crude oil price, there are many obstacles to the rise of propylene price, the overall market trading is stable, and the downstream demand is stable, which plays a great supporting role in propylene.

As of the closing on August 19: in September, WTI fell 1.77 to US $63.69/barrel, down 2.7%; Brent fell 1.78 to $66.45 a barrel in October, down 2.61%. Sc2110 fell 7.3 yuan / barrel to 417.3 yuan / barrel. Oil prices fell for six consecutive trading days, hitting a low since May, down 7.22% during the week.

Polypropylene prices rose or fell little this week, the demand of terminal enterprises continued to be insufficient, and the operation of hoarding goods in advance in peak season has not been started. The operating rate was low, and the supply side was slightly positive, with an increase of 0.2% during the week.

Acrylic acid operated at a high level this week, and the price rose to a high level. The resistance of the downstream to high priced raw materials increased gradually. The enthusiasm for inquiry was general. It was just needed to purchase, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, with an increase of 0.21% during the week.

Isopropanol stopped falling and rose this week. The price of acetone, the raw material of acetone process, rose by nearly 10%, and the price of isopropanol rose accordingly, with an increase of 10.78% during the week.

This week, the price of isooctanol fell, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement weakened, isooctanol units started one after another, and the supply increased, with a decrease of 2.38% during the week.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts at the chemical branch of business society believe that the oil price has dropped sharply, the cost support is weak, and the demand remains stable. It is expected that the propylene price will enter a downward channel in the short-term future.

This week (8.9-13), the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable and the market price changed little. After the callback market at the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia stopped falling and stabilized. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0. This week, some domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers rose and fell, and most of them were stable. With the resumption of some maintenance devices, the market supply increased. Due to the impact of the epidemic in China, the road transportation was limited to a certain extent, the manufacturer’s shipment speed slowed down, the liquid ammonia changed from the original shortage of supply to excess supply, and the price rose from stall to decline. At present, it is mainly to stop the decline and stabilize.

This week, the market situation of liquid ammonia in Shandong was mainly stable. Hualu unit in this area was still in the maintenance period and had no export, which alleviated the regional supply pressure to a certain extent. However, affected by the epidemic, the traffic was affected to a certain extent, the shipment speed of most manufacturers slowed down and the inventory increased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream price in the region is 4650-4750 yuan / ton.

The liquid ammonia Market in Hebei is stable and weak at present. Hebei is also subject to certain traffic restrictions. The manufacturers’ shipment speed slows down and gradually accumulates the warehouse. Although there are large factories in Hebei that are still in the maintenance period, the amount of ammonia in this area remains relatively high. At the weekend, the mainstream price in this area is 4600-4700 yuan / ton. Downstream generally rational procurement, demand is difficult to be large-scale.

In the future, at present, domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers slow down the pace of reduction, and the market supply pressure has a slight easing trend. Although the short-term risk in transportation has not been relieved, in the later stage, with the gradual control of the epidemic situation and the peak season of fertilizer use in autumn, the market procurement will gradually increase, and the increase in demand may drive the price of liquid ammonia back to the rising channel.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine price was adjusted at a high level this week, and the average price of industrial glycine was stable at 25000 yuan / ton without rise or fall.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of the business club, the domestic glycine market remains stable at a high level. The industrial glycine of enterprises is quoted at 25000 yuan / ton. The devices of start-up enterprises are fully opened, the delivery situation is acceptable, and the inventory is limited. The 10000 ton glycine plant of Shandong Zhenxing maintains the maintenance status, and there is no start-up plan for the time being. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, the price is on the high side, and the transaction of new orders is limited

Demand: the downstream glyphosate price remained stable, the price of glyphosate technical drug remained stable at 51000 yuan / ton, glyphosate enterprises were basically full of export orders in September, and the industry profit was considerable. With the arrival of the peak demand season for glyphosate in the fourth quarter, the price of glyphosate is expected to continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current glycine supply is sufficient, and the glycine price is strong under the support of demand. It is expected that the glycine market will continue to operate at a high level and maintain stability in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell continuously this week. On August 8, the price of toluene was 5820 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 15), the price was 5772.2 yuan / ton, down 0.68% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.78%.

2、 Analysis and review

Toluene port inventory increased this week. Demand in South and central China was weak, business transactions were poor, and toluene prices fell. Affected by the spread of delta virus, the shipment of enterprises in East China was blocked and the price was deadlocked. Crude oil fluctuated widely during the week, and the mentality of operators was empty under the influence of cost uncertainty.

In terms of external market, as of August 13, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $764 / T, up US $1 / T or 0.13% month on month (MOM) on August 6.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta virus has dragged down the market mentality, and the market is worried that the growth of demand will be restrained. However, the decline in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories led to a rebound in oil prices. It is reported that the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week increased by 10 compared with last week and 225 compared with the same period last year. On August 6, Brent fell by US $0.11/barrel, or 0.16%; WTI rose US $0.16/barrel, or 0.23%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to decline this week. The price of domestic goods was 14350 yuan / ton, down 2.71% from last week and up 16.35% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is weak, the atmosphere in the venue is cold, the offer of cargo holders continues to be lowered, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and there are a few orders in the market. Affected by public health events, the transaction in the terminal market is limited, and the market is weak.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was flat compared with last week, at 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% compared with the same period last year. As of August 12, the closing prices in Asia were USD 916-918 / T FOB Korea and USD 934-936 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to OPEC + production increase, U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory data, global stock market and economic data, the latest epidemic situation and geographical situation.

The cost side is uncertain, and the support for p-toluene is limited; Weak downstream demand and bearish outlook of operators. It is expected that the weak operation will continue next week. At present, we mainly focus on the change of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week is 3210.00 yuan / ton. Overall, the potassium chloride market was temporarily stable this week, and the potassium chloride commodity index was 101.90 on August 13.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 3270 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride has not been quoted this week. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in the middle and late August may fluctuate slightly. The international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but the domestic available supply is in short supply. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of August 13, the average price of domestic power type high-class lithium iron phosphate was 52000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the lithium iron phosphate market mainly operated smoothly, the supply and demand were balanced, the downstream just needed procurement was mainly, and the transaction atmosphere was cautious.

This week, the lithium iron phosphate market mainly operated stably, with balanced supply and demand and stable price trend. At present, the mainstream quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 51000-55000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 46000-49500 yuan / ton. The lithium iron phosphate Market has increased steadily and operated stably, moderately and strongly in the short term.

Since August, the upstream lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the momentum has not decreased. At present, the price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 93000-96000 yuan / ton, and the price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 93000-93000 yuan / ton. The cost of lithium iron phosphate has a certain support. It is expected to maintain strong consolidation in the short term, and lithium iron phosphate continues to operate steadily.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will operate stably, moderately and strongly next week（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

After more than a month of rapid rise, BDO downstream has obvious resistance to high prices, and the positive transmission is not smooth. Traders have entered the wait-and-see stage, so the BDO market has entered a high consolidation period. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, from August 5 to August 12, the average price of domestic BDO producers increased narrowly from 28500 yuan / ton to 29000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.79% during the cycle. The rise slowed down significantly, and the price increased by 52.43% month on month and 253.66% year-on-year. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot apron in East China is 29800-30800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of spot apron in South China is 30000-31000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, some maintenance devices will be restarted in the near future, and the shipment mentality of individual traders will increase after making profits. However, with the slight increase of market supply, the bearish mentality of the middle and lower reaches of the market will turn rational, and the strength of chasing up and covering positions is not strong. Most downstream terminals have weak ability to accept high prices, and some downstream industries have negative expectations.

In terms of devices, lanshantun river was overhauled for one month on July 25; Xinjiang Meike phase II was overhauled from July 8 to August 12, and phase III plans to replace the catalyst in the near future; Xinjiang Xinye stopped for maintenance for 20 days on July 25; Dongyuan replaced the catalyst on August 4, which is expected to take 7-10 days; Chongqing Jianfeng plans to replace the catalyst on August 9.

In the future, with the passage of time, the downstream chasing up mentality returned to calm, and the downstream production enterprises also chose to reduce negative production due to the continued strong cost. In addition, with the completion of maintenance of production enterprises and the easing of the tension between supply and demand, BDO analysts of business society expect that the domestic BDO market will enter the consolidation stage.

The domestic butadiene market continues the weak downward trend. Although the FOB price in South Korea is higher, the domestic supply and demand continues to be weak. According to the sample data monitored by business society, as of August 9, the domestic butadiene market price was 10957 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 16.86% and a year-on-year increase of 146.18%. In terms of price, the price range in central Shandong is about 11550-11700 yuan / ton; The self lifting price of East China’s tank delivery decreased slightly to about 11300 yuan / ton.

With the launch of new production capacity and the planned restart of some units, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market has been widened to a certain extent. In addition, the start-up of the synthetic rubber industry has decreased and the cost side is under pressure, which affects the fundamentals of butadiene supply and demand and is difficult to find a significant positive boost. However, the recent strong upward performance of the external market may support the downward space of the butadiene market.

In terms of enterprises, Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit operates normally, 300 tons of goods are sold through competitive bidding, and the base price of the bidding is 11500 yuan / ton. The 140000 T / a butadiene unit of Dalian Hengli Petrochemical operates stably, the source of goods is normal for export, and the price is reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 11110 yuan / ton. The 30000 T / a butadiene unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical operates stably, with a small amount of goods for export, and the latest transaction price is 11060 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market: as of August 6, the price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at US $1625-1635 / T, up US $40 / T; CFR China closed at US $1555-1565 / T, up US $60 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $2045-2055 / ton, stable; FD northwest Europe closed at 1595-1605 euros / ton, up 20 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Korea USD 1625-1635 / ton USD 40 / ton

Asia CFR China USD 1555-1565 / T USD 60 / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam USD 2045-2055 / T USD 0 / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1595-1605 euros / ton 20 euros / ton

International crude oil prices fell significantly, affecting the atmosphere of the whole chemical industry. However, with the impact of the slow improvement of the external market, the decline of the domestic butadiene market is expected to slow down. Business analysts expect the market to be mainly sorted out.

From August 2 to August 6, 2021, the market price of crude benzene in Japan was mainly downward, at 6251 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6001 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly drop of 4%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

July 2, 8750., + 300

July 12, 8600. – 150

July 19, 8450. – 150

July 21, 8150. – 300

August 2, 7900. – 250

August 4, 7700. – 200

On August 4, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. At present, it is 7700 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7650 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and pure benzene continued to decline this week, and the fundamentals were negative under the influence of negative factors such as the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory. In the downstream, the recent continuous losses have led to an increase in enterprise maintenance, mainly rigid demand procurement, a decline in the demand for pure benzene, and the hydrobenzene market has been dragged down, with a weekly decline of 400-500 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, there are still coking enterprises in some areas whose output has decreased to a certain extent due to the impact of environmental protection policies, but nationwide, the production is normal and the supply is stable. After two rounds of coke increase, the cost pressure is reduced and the operation is generally active. Most of the crude benzene bidding prices this week were mainly reduced due to the drag of the industrial chain, of which 6000 ~ 6005 yuan / ton was implemented in Shandong, which was 250 yuan / ton lower than the bidding price last week.

In the future, the business community believes that the increase of crude oil production and inventory continues to depress the crude oil price. It is expected that the trend of crude oil price fluctuation will be the main trend in the short term, which is difficult to form obvious support for the industrial chain. The downstream styrene and other industries are weak and volatile, and it is difficult to find good fundamentals. It is expected that the trend of weak fluctuation in the pure benzene industrial chain will be the main trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine price remained stable at a high level this week, and the average price of industrial grade glycine remained stable at 25000 yuan / ton without rise or fall.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of the business club, the domestic glycine market is operating at a high level. The mainstream quotation of industrial glycine is 25000 yuan / ton. The downstream demand can be followed up. The current price is high and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. The factory started stably, mainly completed the orders of old customers, and the transaction of new orders is limited.

Demand: the downstream glyphosate price is high. It is understood that the domestic glyphosate technical price has exceeded the 50000 yuan / ton mark. Most glyphosate production enterprises now do not make external quotations and mainly supply orders from old customers. Some enterprise orders have been arranged to October, and the prosperity of the industry has not decreased.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current glycine supply is sufficient, and the glycine price is strong under the support of demand. It is expected that the glycine market will continue to operate at a high level and maintain stability in the near future.

From July 26 to July 30, 2021, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable, with the price at 60000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 65500 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 9.17%.

On August 1, the antimony commodity index was 91.18, the same as yesterday, down 10.89% from the highest point of 102.32 in the cycle (October 16, 2012), and up 94.08% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

This week, the market price of antimony ingots continued to operate steadily upward, and the price increase mentality of manufacturers was strong. Most manufacturers were reluctant to sell. There was news in the market that the import of antimony ore would be limited in the next half of the year, and the duration might reach the end of the 21st year. Driven by the tight expectation of raw materials, the enterprise’s intention to raise prices was high.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 30th week of 2021 (7.26-7.30), there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 6 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 27.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were metal praseodymium (10.88%), antimony (9.17%) and praseodymium oxide (8.47%). There were three kinds of commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products were lead (- 1.98%), cobalt (- 1.14%) and zinc (- 0.53%). The average rise and fall this week was 2.99%, and most of the nonferrous market prices rose this week.

As of July 30, the domestic market 2# antimony ingot was 66500 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot was 68500 yuan / ton, and 0# antimony ingot was 69500 yuan / ton.

The business agency believes that the continuous rise in the price of antimony ingots in July is mainly due to the shortage of raw materials, which is similar to the sharp rise at the beginning of the year. At present, the market inquiry is more enthusiastic than that in the early stage, which enhances the manufacturers’ confidence in supporting the price. It is expected that the price of antimony ingot will still have upward space in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fluctuated and weakened in July, and the spot prices of various brands decreased by a narrow margin. As of July 31, the average offer price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 38150 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.04% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and an increase of 102.93% over the same period last year.

Cause analysis

In terms of upstream adipic acid, the price of adipic acid rose sharply in early July due to the sharp rise in the price of raw material pure benzene. Superimposed on the impact of manufacturers’ centralized increase in the listing price at the beginning of the month, the increase in the second week alone reached 11%, the spot price broke through the 11000 yuan mark, and the monthly high appeared at 11160 yuan / ton on the 15th. By the middle of the year, the international crude oil went down to cool the heat of pure benzene and other products. Adipic acid fell upstream and the price center of gravity corrected. In terms of supply, the change of adipic acid start-up level in July is limited, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is general, and some enterprises have not returned to work after maintenance, diverting the supply pressure. At the end of the month, the market offer price is still in the high range, but at present, it has gradually entered the off-season, and the shipment fluency has gradually decreased. In addition, the recent device restart is concentrated, and there may be an increase in supply in the future. It is expected that the recent market may be weak.

The raw material adipic acid rose sharply and fell in a narrow range, and the cost side support of PA66 strengthened significantly. However, in July, PA66 market was indifferent to the upstream support feedback, and the market basically maintained the medium and long-term pattern of weak supply and demand, with obvious market characteristics in the off-season. In terms of operating rate, the overall load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was not high this month, some units resumed work, and the supply picked up. In terms of demand, the terminal enterprises follow up slowly, the on-site trading orders are small, the market momentum is insufficient, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Merchants tentatively hold firm in their offer, and there is profit making shipment in the actual order. Recently, the market momentum has not improved, and the light state continues.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market fluctuated and fell in July. At present, the cost side support of PA66 is strong, but the profits of PA66 itself and downstream users are poor, the demand follow-up is weak, and the cost side support has not been successfully transformed into a positive effect on the spot price. In the current off-season market with weak supply and demand, it aggravates the cost pressure of PA66. PA66 market is expected to be weak in the short term.

The price of ethylene oxide is adjusted this month, and the ex factory price is adjusted from 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7200 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

The external price of upstream ethylene remained stable, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1005 / T, and the external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was US $1005 / T. the domestic Luxi Chemical Industry decreased slightly by 100 yuan / T to 6900 yuan / T, and the price of Jinshan United trade remained stable to 7200 yuan / T.

According to the latest price calculation of the current external market, ethylene oxide is still in a loss state, which also paves the way for the rise of market price. In addition, the international oil market continues to fluctuate at a high level, some ethylene oxide units are shut down, the regional supply is reduced, the supply of goods continues to be tight, and other factors affect the price gradually upward.

In the downstream, the rising trend of raw material prices is obvious, the manufacturers have a strong willingness to support the market, and the monomer market has also ushered in a slow restorative increase, while the prices of other downstream NP-10 and AEO-9 rose slightly by 100 yuan / ton today. However, the domestic epidemic has rebounded recently. Affected by supervision, the logistics of some provinces and cities will be limited, or it will have a certain impact on the transportation of enterprise raw materials and products in some regions.

Insiders pointed out that ethylene oxide will be increased by 300 yuan / ton tomorrow. According to the current external price, even if the price is increased, the profit margin is still narrow, so we need to pay close attention to the changes in raw material prices.