This week, the spot tin market price (2.17-2.24) fluctuated in the market and went down as a whole. The average price of the domestic market was 214360 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 211410 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.38%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will rise as a whole after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors.

In the futures market, the trend of the futures market this week was somewhat volatile. In the macro aspect, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates. The Fed’s statement on Tuesday made the market worried about raising interest rates increase. The metal market was generally under pressure. The price of Shanghai Tin fluctuated more frequently during the week.

In terms of the spot market, the market trend this week was basically consistent with that of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, with frequent fluctuations in the week and overall downward trend. The price fluctuation is obvious. The market trading in the week is slightly cold, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. After Monday’s fall, the market has some bargain-hunting. On the supply side, the smelter is currently operating steadily, but the price fluctuation in the week has made the manufacturers have a strong attitude of price fixing. In terms of demand, with the lower tin price, the mentality of replenishment in the downstream is gradually rising. It is common for the market to seek bargains to replenish the stock. The overall social inventory declines, and the market just needs to remain. On the whole, the demand for loose supply is weak. In the future, the tin market is expected to remain stable and weak. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of macroeconomic policies on the market mentality.

The base metal index stood at 1260 points on February 26, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.03% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 96.26% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 8th week of 2023 (2.20-2.24), with cobalt (2.58%), tin (1.51%) and zinc (0.77%) among the top three commodities. There were 9 commodities that fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products were neodymium oxide (- 4.61%), neodymium metal (- 3.72%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.90%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.54%.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of the 24th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8287.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.86% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, the Anhui Tongling Linfa phthalic anhydride has started to ship normally, the Xinyang Group’s 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, and the Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride has operated normally. Now the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is sufficient, the phthalic anhydride delivery is normal, and the phthalic anhydride market has risen slightly.

Cost side: o-benzene market is stable

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene is temporarily stable. As of the 24th, the price of ortho benzene is 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend is temporarily stable. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory changes little. The stable ortho benzene price brings some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

On the demand side: the trend of DOP market is volatile, and procurement is based on demand

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, with an increase of 0.40%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand of plasticizer industry is weak. Affected by the fluctuation of DOP price, the price of phthalic anhydride is low, but the overall price is low.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is stable in the short term, but the market of downstream plasticizer industry is fluctuating, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will be stable in the later period.

Ethylene oxide price rebounded in February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on February 22, 2023 was 6800 yuan/ton, up 7.94% from 6300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, the resumption of terminal production and the improvement of downstream demand are the main reasons for the strong price of ethylene oxide.

Overview of fundamentals

On the supply side, ethylene oxide production capacity is relatively stable, the price of raw material ethylene has little change, and the support is limited. On the demand side, the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer has warmed after the holiday, especially the terminal real estate operating rate, and the demand is expected to be large. At present, the production enthusiasm of polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer enterprises has increased, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide has improved. In the early stage, when the fundamentals of ethylene oxide were weak, ethylene oxide manufacturers and holding traders began to increase their prices.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of raw material ethylene is relatively stable, the terminal demand is improved, the downstream demand is increased, the market of the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer is improved, and the demand for ethylene oxide is expected to improve. In the early stage, the price of ethylene oxide fell, and the price was low. There was some room for rebound. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will continue the current trend in the short term, with strong shocks.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price rose slightly this week, with the average market price rising from 155.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 156.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.65%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 36.07%. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 19 was 41.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.23% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 128.31% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride dropped slightly, from 1966.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1960.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.32%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 18.08%; The market price of ammonium chloride is high, and the market price is 1212.50 yuan/ton. On the whole, upstream support has increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

Aftermarket forecast

In late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level. The downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

Price trend

The trend of domestic PA66 market was sideways in mid-February. According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 21000 yuan/ton on February 20, with a decline of – 2.33% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In mid-February, the market of PA66 remained stagnant. In terms of supply, the current overall domestic load of PA66 industry has increased by a narrow margin, about 66%. The enterprise’s operation follows the trend of going to the warehouse in the early stage, and the inventory pressure is general, and the supply of goods on the site is relatively abundant. In the upstream, the overall operating rate of adipic acid as raw material has increased, and the expected increase in supply in the later period is negative for the market. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is also expected to increase, and the support of PA66 raw material end to the spot is weakened. The situation in demand is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods, and buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced goods. The smoothness of merchants’ delivery is average.

Aftermarket forecast

In mid-February, the spot price of PA66 was flat. The market of raw materials began to weaken, and the support for PA66 cost side weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises is stable, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side is weak in taking goods, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9550.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of Monday.

The epoxy propane market fell first and then rose this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene rose slightly, the liquid chlorine of raw material operated slightly, the cost support was strong, and the supply end devices fluctuated little. At the beginning of the week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high, the factory shipments were weak, some of the accumulated inventory, and the market wait-and-see weakened. With the centralized replenishment after the downstream terminal wait-and-see, the market price rose. On the 17th, the mainstream price of propylene oxide market in Shandong Province was around 9600-9700 yuan/ton, and the market operated slightly.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has risen slightly recently. On February 16, the reference price of propylene was 7480.75, up 0.17% from February 13 (7468.25).

The epoxy propane analyst of the business agency believes that at present, there is some support for the cost, the factory shipment is smooth, and the demand side is mainly followed up. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will be stronger in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fallen sharply recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1243.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1233.33 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The current price fell 2.89% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating. From the figure above, it can be seen that the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market has declined this week. As of February 16, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1170-1280 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of raw material methanol has declined slightly, the demand of downstream plate factories has recovered slowly, and the formaldehyde inventory is high. In order to ship, the formaldehyde manufacturers have led the market to decline.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has declined slightly, with the mainstream ex-factory price of methanol in southern Shandong at 2600 yuan/ton, and some ex-factory prices around 2500 yuan/ton; The delivery price in Linyi is 2550 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation of enterprises in central and eastern Shandong fell 80 yuan to 2470-2500 yuan/ton; The reference price of Dongying and surrounding areas is 2450 yuan/ton. With the end of the holiday, some coal mines began to resume work and production, and the output picked up slightly. The terminal power plants were in a weak purchasing mood under the support of long-term cooperative coal. The non-electric terminal raw coal was consumed during the holiday, and the demand for replenishment in the near future was released slightly. In the short term, the power coal price is mainly stable. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good.

Recently, the methanol market has been volatile and low, the cost support is not good, and the downstream is still just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde market is likely to follow the methanol fluctuation, so the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Association predicted that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is mainly volatile.

From February 3 to February 10, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose, with the price of 81500 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 85750 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.21%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, remained flat for seven consecutive weeks, the price began to decline continuously at the end of October, and slightly recovered after the end of December.

European strategic small metal antimony price this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ February 3/ February 10/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 12700./12700./ -

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony was temporarily stable, and the price was 12700 US dollars/ton by February 10. The market price was temporarily stable during the week, and the negotiation atmosphere was OK.

Antimony ingot prices continued to rise this week, with active market trading. On the supply side, it will take some time to resume work during the holiday. Therefore, the antimony ingot market is still in a tight supply situation. The suppliers have a strong reluctance to sell recently, and the quotations have also been continuously raised. Driven by the current market atmosphere, the demand side has active market transactions, active inquiries, and the expected improvement of export conditions. The actual transaction of the market has improved significantly. With the rising prices, at present, it is mainly the purchase on demand, while other transactions are slightly light. In the future, the price of antimony ingot will remain stable, medium and strong in the future under the expectation of tight supply and improved demand. However, with the fall of trading atmosphere, the rising space may be limited.

Antimony oxide price trend this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ February 3/ February 10/ Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide./73000./75500./+2500

99.8% antimony trioxide./74500./77000./+2500

This week, the antimony oxide market rose broadly, and the market turnover was significantly improved. Under the tight supply of raw materials, the market procurement was more active than in the early stage. After the Lantern Festival, the market was basically completely resumed. At present, the construction was gradually resumed, and the overall market was relatively strong.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1191 points on February 12, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.56% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 96.21% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were four commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 6th week of 2023 (2.6-2.10), with antimony (3.94%), nickel (2.96%) and lead (0.49%) among the top three commodities. A total of 17 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products fell were Praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 4.35%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.46%) and dysprosium oxide (- 2.45%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.82%.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell mainly, and the domestic rare earth market declined. The rare earth index was 668 points on February 12, down 33.66% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 146.49% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium all fell in China. As of the 13th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 875000 yuan/ton, down 2.23% this week; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 715000 yuan/ton, down 4.35%; The price of neodymium oxide was 785000 yuan/ton, down 1.88%; The price of neodymium metal was 965000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.03%; The price of praseodymium metal was 915000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.14%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 705000 yuan/ton, down 1.40% this week.

The domestic light rare earth market inquiry list is cold and the demand is poor. The downstream magnetic material enterprises have sufficient stock before the festival. The downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory. The metal demand situation in the rare earth market has not improved. Some metal factories have almost no transactions. In addition, the transaction situation of rare earth oxide inquiry list is not optimistic. The prices of the holders continue to decline. In the near future, the downstream procurement is very cold, coupled with the gradual resumption of production enterprises, the supply of light rare earth market is increasing, and the negative factors are superimposed, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly declining.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.365 million yuan/ton as of the 13th, and the price fell by 3.27% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.355 million yuan/ton, down 3.29%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.145 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.02%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.7 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.4 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earths has declined. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in rare earths mining areas in Sichuan and other places has increased, the production of production enterprises has increased, the downstream procurement is scarce, and the market price has declined slightly. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price decline in the heavy rare earth market is limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis, down 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, and the market share reached 24.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the demand for new energy has declined, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market has declined.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth are sustainable development. In the near future, the procurement of downstream businesses is cold, coupled with the increase of upstream supply, the dealers holding goods are unwilling to sell at low prices, and the transaction is very cold. In the short term, the price of the rare earth market is mainly declining. In the long term, the demand in the new energy field is still guaranteed, and the development of the rare earth industry is optimistic.

Price trend

In the first ten days of February, the domestic POM market was relatively active, and the overall price performance was stable first and then rose. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14200 yuan/ton, and the price level increased by+1.91% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating recently. It can be seen from the figure below that the formaldehyde market is mainly subject to small fluctuations, and this week’s market has declined. As of February 9, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1200-1280 yuan/ton. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly and the formaldehyde inventory was high. In order to ship, the formaldehyde manufacturers led the market down.

Supply: In the first ten days of February, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to run at a high level, and the industry load reached more than 97%, almost full. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, the inventory position is low, and the processing profit has declined.

Demand: In terms of demand, there is an atmosphere of speculation in the market due to the tight supply in the near future. In addition to the promotion of the resumption of work and stock preparation of terminal enterprises after the holiday, the current demand is gradually released, which has a driving effect on the spot price.

The tight supply of goods in the POM market continues, and the manufacturer’s ex-factory price is rising steadily. Guided by this, the traders’ mentality is strongly supported.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of February, the POM market rose steadily. The domestic polymerization plant operates at almost full capacity, but the inventory pressure is small, the supply of goods on the site is more compact, and the ex-factory price of domestic materials is quite high. The demand side is gradually developing, and it is expected that the downstream enterprises will still have room to expand the scale of resumption of work, and some customers will have upward-seeking operations. It is expected that the POM market will continue to run strongly in the short term due to the support of the supply side.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of raw silk fluctuated at a high level this week. As of February 3, the average market price was 437975 yuan/ton, 0.12% higher than last week’s price (437450 yuan/ton), and 1.88% lower than the previous year; The dried cocoon market remained stable, with an average market price of 145000 yuan/ton, up 0.69% year on year.

This week, on the spot market, the overall price and trading volume of raw silk increased compared with the last trading week before the year. On high-quality raw silk, the trading performance of the first trading week of this week after the year was slightly better than that of the last trading week before the year. The transaction price of some units is higher than that of the year before, and the transaction price of some units is basically the same as that of the year before. On the whole, the price index of high-quality raw silk is higher than that of the year before. In terms of silk floss, since the end of the year, whether it is customer maintenance needs or just needs to get the goods, more or less deals have been made, and the price of some varieties is better than that before the year. As for dry cocoons, the expectation of the selling unit is higher than that of the year before due to the good start of the Spring Festival consumption and the increased cost of capital and other factors. However, the dry cocoon buyer does have a shortage of raw materials after the year, but the acceptance is limited, and the transaction is still difficult. In addition, the start of construction this week is gradually starting, and the dry cocoon continues to have no transaction data.

Downstream, although light textile markets in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong and other places have opened in succession, textile and fabric enterprises that have resumed production in advance after the festival have also opened the inquiry mode, and the whole industry chain is in good mood. However, due to the fact that weaving enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places are still in the state of resumption of production, and it is expected that the enterprises will resume work fully on the 15th of the first month, and the yarn procurement has not actually started (the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong). Although the stock of raw materials (yarn) is not high before the Spring Festival, we still hope to replenish the stock after the production is completely restored, and it still depends on the terminal orders. It is expected that downstream enterprises will resume work fully after the Lantern Festival, and the market will gradually enter the key stage of verifying demand.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the stock of grey fabric enterprises is high before the year. Although the demand for raw materials will be expected to be good as the downstream production resumes, due to the slow recovery of the start of construction and the limited effect of the boost, it is expected that the short-term dry cocoon and raw silk market will be mainly subject to shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the downstream demand in the future.

Last week (January 30-February 5, 2023), the market price of nylon filament rose continuously after the holiday. After the festival, the cost of caprolactam, the raw material, was supported favorably, the spot price was tight, and the upstream and downstream demand was steadily followed up. The market of nylon chips and nylon filament is driven by cost. After the festival, the construction of nylon filament was relatively low, but the supply in the field was sufficient, the inventory was high, and the market was mainly dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the textile market is difficult to hide the weak situation. Weaving manufacturers are generally motivated to stock raw materials, and the atmosphere of rising is not high. Most downstream weaving factories maintain low load production.

Market price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of nylon filament rose continuously last week (January 30 to February 5, 2023). As of February 5, 2023, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium products; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu was 18160 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton higher than that of last week, with a weekly increase of 2.95%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 15850 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, up 1.93% per week; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) was 18925 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week, up 2.71%.

Upstream raw material market

Raw material caprolactam: Last week (January 30 – February 5, 2023), the cost of raw material caprolactam was supported favorably, the spot price was tight, and the demand of upstream and downstream was steadily followed up, so the spot price rose continuously. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on February 5 was 12833 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week, up 4.05% per week. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain strong in the short term.

Supply and demand

After the Spring Festival, nylon filament enterprises started cautiously, and the overall production and supply of the market was sufficient, with the main force digesting the inventory. The operating rate of the downstream weaving industry has not completely recovered, and the market transaction is in the slow start stage. The grey fabric inventory in the factory has not changed much compared with that before the festival, and is still under high pressure. The enthusiasm of raw material stocking is not high, and the terminal demand is weak. Most weaving factories are at the lowest load production.

Aftermarket forecast

In the later stage, the cost support of nylon filament market is strong. With the increase of textile construction, the end demand is expected to improve, boosting market confidence to a certain extent. With the demand for replenishment of downstream enterprises after the festival, the analysts of the business association predict that there is still a narrow upward space for the market of nylon filament in the short term, so it is necessary to pay attention to the price change of raw materials.

This week (1.30-2.6), the butadiene rubber market rose first, then fell, and rose overall. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 6, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11660 yuan/ton, up 1.48% from 11490 yuan/ton last Monday, and the highest point in the cycle was 11800 yuan/ton. After the festival, downstream inquiries increased a little, and the price of raw butadiene was high and strong, so cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber enterprises were willing to increase the price. Within the week, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber suppliers increased the ex-factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton. Buying sentiment weakened after the market price rose, and the offer of merchants fell slightly in the middle of the week. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 6, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was reported at 11500 yuan/ton. As of the 6th, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 10550~11800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber reported 11300~11400 yuan/ton.

This week (1.30-2.6), the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9432 yuan/ton as of February 6, up 4.57% from 9020 yuan/ton on January 30.

The natural rubber market fell sharply this week (1.30-2.6), which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 12104 yuan/ton as of February 6, down 4.77% from 12710 yuan/ton last Friday.

Enquiries from some downstream product enterprises increased after the festival, which had a small support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; However, the commencement of tire enterprises is still at a low level, and the demand for polybutadiene rubber is weak; The negotiation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber mainly focuses on small orders.

Future forecast: The analysts of the Business Agency believe that at present, the pressure on the supply side of polybutadiene rubber is still there, but the cost side is up. In addition, the start of downstream tires after the Lantern Festival may increase. It is expected that the polybutadiene rubber market will continue to rise slightly with the start of the downstream.

The price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly in January. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on January 31 was 7642 yuan/ton, up 4.66% from the price of 7302 at the beginning of the month, up 1.64% year on year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7470 (settlement price 7488), up 3.29% from the beginning of the month.

In January, the international crude oil price rose first and then fell, with a slight decline in the whole month. On January 31, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at around $79/barrel. The supply of crude oil in the United States has declined this month, the economy in Asia has recovered, the import volume of crude oil in China has increased significantly, and the recovery of demand has supported the international oil price. However, the high level of inflation in the western developed economies has hurt the global economy and undermined the international oil market.

In January, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. As of January 31, the average market price was 5748 yuan/ton, up 2.35% from the beginning of the month and 5.96% year on year. This month, PTA plant maintenance devices were restarted frequently, and the load was significantly increased. Among them, 2.4 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical, 3.3 million tons of Yisheng New Materials and 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo have been restarted successively and are now in normal operation. In terms of new capacity, Jiatong Energy 1 # 2.5 million tons of units, of which 1.25 million tons of units will produce high-quality products at the end of January 2022, and the other 1.25 million tons of units will produce high-quality products at the beginning of January. Another 1.25 million ton new unit of Shandong Weilian Chemical has not been officially commissioned.

The price of ethylene glycol recovered in January. On the one hand, it was driven by the oil price and its own low valuation. On the other hand, it was due to the reduction and conversion of large units, which boosted market confidence. The spot price rose by about 8% in the whole month. However, the supply and demand structure of glycol fundamentals in the medium and long term is still weak, and it is expected that the probability of future platform shocks will increase.

In January, the start-up rate of the yarn mill and weaving mill fell to the freezing point due to the Spring Festival holiday. At present, most enterprises are still in the shutdown stage, and the production recovery is later than the upstream. It is expected to resume the start-up in the first ten days of February. In addition, due to the high stock level of raw materials in some factories before the holiday, and the overall weakness of new orders after the holiday, the order reception situation is not ideal, and the recovery of demand side is not obvious.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the current international crude oil market is highly volatile, and the cost support of staple fiber still exists. The downstream terminal market will gradually resume work after the festival, and there will be a wave of replenishment demand for staple fiber. It is expected that the price of staple fiber will fluctuate slightly with the cost in February. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and the resumption of industrial chain.